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How Have MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents Fared Thus Far?

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With the Winter Meetings wrapped up and holiday season in full swing, we’re left looking at an unprecedentedly slow free agent market. The ongoing logjam, in spite of resolution for the Giancarlo Stanton and Shohei Ohtani situations, lends credence to the theory that there are structural forces at play that may be shifting the typical signing calendar.

Some have wondered whether this state of affairs represents a major threat to players’ earnings. Most top free agents have yet to find a match and there’s a big-market luxury tax limbo line forming in the center of the dance floor, after all.

Of course, there are still some conceivably one-off factors that may be influencing things. If nothing else, all industry players are to some extent still waiting to see how a new CBA will impact strategy. A broad youth movement in the game may be a background feature here. The trade market may still be sorting itself out, due in part to the fact that there are only a few pure selling clubs — some with big trade pieces are also weighing other significant additions, while other conceivable rebuilders seem not to be interested in a tear-down.

Still, it’s remarkable how full the free agent cupboard is with just a dozen days left in the 2017 calendar. Just 17 of MLBTR’s top 50 free agents have locked up deals to this point (by MLBTR ranking, with predicted contract value in parentheses):

Of course, some other players have also signed fairly significant contracts:

The top ten players on MLBTR’s board remain unsigned (not including Masahiro Tanaka, who did not opt out). Only three position players from the list are under contract. None of the top starters have put pen to paper. Meanwhile, teams have gone wild for setup arms — which arguably suggests some trepidation at more significant spending. The top three relievers (Wade Davis, Greg Holland, and Addison Reed) are still available, but otherwise many of the top bullpen pieces are under contract.

At the same time, though, there are some indications that we could still see things shake out in a relatively typical way, even if the process and timing are different. The clear run on relievers shows that teams can still act quickly and dole out large contracts when the dominoes start to fall at a given position. Those players that have signed to date have performed well; among the top fifty, they’ve secured contracts collectively guaranteeing about 11% more than MLBTR had predicted as a group. While the Dodgers and Yankees won’t drive top-end spending this year, the opportunities presented by top free agents will surely still prove tantalizing to other organizations.

Who holds the cards with about two months until camps open? That’ll be sorted out in an unusual time frame and will still be impacted by uncertainty in the trade market. Most broadly, the full narrative of the 2017-18 offseason has yet to declare itself, but that’s also a fact that’s notable in and of itself.

Poll: Should The Cubs Sign Yu Darvish?

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It’s obvious now that the Cubs have more than a passing interest in free agent righty Yu Darvish, who the team’s top brass met with today in Texas. As Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic writes, it seems the growing likelihood of a match is the result more of market development than the pre-winter intentions of the Chicago organization.

The connection is real, then, but its consummation is hardly a fait accompli. It’s a good time to stop and take the temperature of the MLBTR readership on the subject with a poll.

It doesn’t take much explanation to establish the fit. Darvish is the top free agent starter, in MLBTR’s collective estimation. While the Cubs have added Tyler Chatwood to a staff that’s fronted by Kyle Hendricks, Jon Lester, and Jose Quintana, the club would like to add another high-quality arm to push Mike Montgomery into the bullpen (or out via trade). The club seems to have payroll space left to work with.

In one view, then, it’s simple: of course the Cubs should pursue Darvish. That said, if it’s circumstances driving the interest — say, Darvish’s interest levels and the still-lofty asking price of other top free agents like Jake Arrieta and Alex Cobb — then we have to bear in mind all the more that price will matter. It’s not as if the rest of the market will sit back and allow the Cubs to swoop in and make a deal; a few other teams, at least, have been cited as having ongoing interest.

So, rather than a simple yes/no question, I thought it’d be more interesting to see the circumstances under which folks believe a match would be sensible here for the Cubs. Darvish makes any team better, but perhaps you think he’s not as good as other options or that the team should prioritize other areas altogether. Or, maybe you think the expected contract price (something approaching or even exceeding Lester’s contract) is just too steep, but that Darvish would be a great add if he can be acquired for something below that rate. (Poll link for app users.)

Should the Cubs Sign Yu Darvish?
Sure, but only if he takes a discount from expectations. 42.06% (10,497 votes)
Yes, even if it means paying top dollar. 28.35% (7,075 votes)
No, the Cubs should chase a different top starter. 18.29% (4,565 votes)
No, the Cubs should not use resources on a top starter. 11.29% (2,818 votes)
Total Votes: 24,955

Market Notes: Red Sox, Hosmer, Royals, Cards, Donaldson, Mets, Kipnis, A-Gon

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Signing Mitch Moreland doesn’t take the Red Sox out of the market for hitting, president of baseball ops Dave Dombrowski told reporters including Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. And adding another stick wouldn’t necessarily mean trading away from the current roster to create space, the club’s top baseball decisionmaker added. But it surely does not seem that Boston will sign another first baseman; rather, a DH/corner outfield bat seems the likeliest possibility.

  • Boston’s decision seems to take it out of the market for Eric Hosmer, which has raised some eyebrows in Royals country. As Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star writes, there are still many barriers remaining to a return to Kansas City for Hosmer, including the possibility that agent Scott Boras will find a way to bring some new suitors into the picture. But keeping Hosmer in Royals blue for the future now seems more plausible than might have been expected when the organization began giving indication it would rebuild. Of course, even if that comes to pass, the general rebuilding plan will remain, the Star’s Rustin Dodd notes on Twitter.
  • The Cardinals appear to be showing more interest in veteran Blue Jays third baseman Josh Donaldson than in Manny Machado of the Orioles, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). Nightengale posits that the club may believe it’s better situated to pursue a long-term deal with Donaldson — who’s much older than Machado, though both will hit the open market at the same time — which would increase his appeal. Of course, it’s important to bear in mind there’s still no real indication that Toronto will move Donaldson and the St. Louis front office has suggested recently that it’s not all that keen on giving up significant assets for a rental.
  • While there has been some chatter recently connecting the Mets to Indians second baseman Jason Kipnis, Ken Davidoff of the New York Post says that possibility is not as likely as it has come to seem. Especially with Carlos Santana moving on, says Davidoff, the Indians are not particularly inclined to part with Kipnis’s contract for a marginal return. New York is trying to thread the needle in finding an upgrade at the position, with the organization concerned with giving up too much in salary or prospect value to make a deal. As the Post’s Joel Sherman writes, the Mets’ lack of top-end, marketable pre-MLB talent has posed an under-appreciated barrier to its winter activity.
  • The Mets, of course, are also eyeing the addition of another option at the first base position. New York had some interest in Moreland, per the above-cited Cafardo piece. And as James Wagner of the New York Times tweets, the Mets intend at least to take a look at the newest entrant onto the open market: Adrian Gonzalez. The veteran will be looking to bounce back after a rough, injury-plagued 2017 season, though he could conceivably bring some upside at a very appealing price.

Hyun Soo Kim Signs With KBO’s LG Twins

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Korean outfielder Hyun Soo Kim is heading home, according to Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap News, who tweets that Kim has struck a four-year deal with the Korea Baseball Organization’s LG Twins. Kim will reportedly earn 11.5 billion won, which equates to about $10.6MM, in the contract.

Kim, who’ll turn thirty years of age in January, had a strong first MLB season after joining the Orioles on a two-year, $7MM pact. While he functioned mostly as a lefty platoon bat, Kim ran up a strong .302/.382/.420 slash with six home runs over 346 plate appearances. He drew 36 walks against just 51 strikeouts in that span.

Things turned south in 2017, however, as Kim stumbled out of the gates in Baltimore and did not pick up the pace after landing with the Phillies in the middle of the season. Over his 239 total trips to the plate, Kim managed only a .231/.307/.292 slash with a single home run.

While Kim no doubt could at least have landed a minors deal with a decent shot at cracking a MLB roster at some point in 2017, he’ll instead head back to his native Korea. Long a fixture with the Doosan Bears, Kim will look to pick up where he left off before crossing the Pacific. Kim owns a lifetime .318/.406/.488 batting line over ten KBO campaigns.

Minor MLB Transactions: 12/18/17

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Here are the latest minor moves from around the game:

  • Catcher Eric Fryer is heading to the Phillies on a minors deal with a spring invite, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports on Twitter. Now 32 years of age, Fryer has seen action in each of the past seven MLB campaigns but has only once topped one hundred plate appearances. He spent last year as a little-used backup in St. Louis. Overall, Fryer carries a .232/.320/.300 batting line in his major-league career.
  • Righty Erik Davis has inked a minor-league pact with the Brewers, per a club announcement. The 31-year-old had a brief but highly promising debut with the Nats back in 2013, but hasn’t returned to form since ensuing Tommy John surgery. Davis spent the 2017 season pitching at Triple-A for the Diamondbacks organization. over 63 2/3 innings, he worked to a 4.38 ERA with 10.2 K/9 and 4.4 BB/9.
  • The Royals have released southpaw Onelki Garcia so that he can pursue an opportunity in Japan, according to MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan (via Twitter). Further details are not known at this time. Garcia, 28, made it back to the majors in 2017 for the first time since his brief debut in 2013, though he was knocked around in six frames. In his 85 1/3 upper-minors frames on the year with Kansas City, Garcia pitched to a 4.75 ERA with 7.3 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9.

Jared Hoying Signs With KBO’s Hanwha Eagles

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TODAY: Hoying has inked a $7ooK deal with the KBO’s Hanwha Eagles, per Naver Sports (Korean-language link; h/t Dan Kurtz of MyKBO.net, on Twitter).

YESTERDAY: The Angels have released outfielder Jared Hoying, MLB Trade Rumors’ Steve Adams reports (Twitter link).  The team granted the release so Hoying could pursue an opportunity playing in South Korea.

Hoying and the Angels agreed to a minor league deal earlier this offseason.  The Rangers outrighted Hoying off their 40-man roster in October, paving the way for his free agency and subsequent deal with Los Angeles.

A 10th-round pick for the Rangers in the 2010 draft, Hoying spent his entire pro career in the Texas organization, hitting .260/.320/.444 over 3544 career plate appearances in the minor leagues.  Hoying played most games in center field but saw significant time at all three outfield spots.  He made his big league debut in 2016 and saw action in each of the last two seasons for the Rangers, posting a .220/.262/.288 slash line over 126 PA in the majors.

Andrew Albers Signs With Japan’s Orix Buffaloes

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6:18pm: Albers tweets that he’s joining the NPB’s Orix Buffaloes.

12:39pm: The Mariners have granted lefty Andrew Albers his release so that he may pursue an opportunity in Japan, reports Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet (via Twitter).

The 32-year-old Albers, a client of True Gravity Sports, is no stranger to playing overseas after spending the 2014 season playing for the Hanwha Eagles of the Korea Baseball Organization. However, this would mark the first action for Albers in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball.

Albers remained on the Mariners’ 40-man roster to this point in the offseason after a strong 41-inning showing in Seattle. The Canadian-born southpaw turned in a 3.51 ERA with 8.1 K/9, 2.2 BB/9 and a 33.6 percent ground-ball rate over the life of six starts and three relief appearances. Albers also turned in a terrific 2.61 ERA in 120 2/3 innings with the Braves’ Triple-A affiliate before being traded over to the Mariners in early August.

The trip to Japan will mark another chapter in what has been a fascinating professional career for Albers. A 10th-round pick of the Padres back in 2008, Albers scarcely pitched in the San Diego organization before finding himself in independent ball for the 2010 campaign. He parlayed a brilliant showing in the Canadian-American Association into a minor league deal with the Twins and rose through their ranks to make his big league debut in 2013.

Improbably, Albers tossed 8 1/3 shutout innings in his MLB debut and followed that up with a complete-game shutout in his second career start. He went to Korea the following year and has been up and down in the Majors since. Albers averages in the 86-87 mph range on his heater and has never been much of a strikeout arm, but his excellent control and knack for inducing weak contact have served him well throughout his time as a pro.

[Related: Seattle Mariners depth chart]

For the Mariners, the loss of Albers will thin out their rotation depth to some extent, though that’s one area of need that the team is seeking to add anyhow — especially in the wake of missing out on Shohei Ohtani. At present, the Mariners will turn to James Paxton, Felix Hernandez, Mike Leake and Erasmo Ramirez in the top four spots of the rotation, though the 40-man roster contains several other options. Lefties Ariel Miranda, Marco Gonzales and Sam Moll (whom the Mariners are converting to a starter) will join righties Max Povse, Andrew Moore, Chase De Jong and Robert Whalen in competing for starts.

Christian Yelich “Unhappy” With Marlins’ Direction, Set To Meet With Front Office

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Marlins outfielder Christian Yelich is — rather unsurprisingly — not particularly enthused with the direction the club has taken so far this winter, according to a report from Jerry Crasnick of EPN.com. That said, the 26-year-old has not demanded a trade and is willing to hear out president of baseball operations Michael Hill on the organization’s plans.

Yelich joins catcher J.T. Realmuto as veteran Marlins players who are evidently disappointed by the fact they are bound to an organization that has already dealt away three critical roster pieces this winter. While neither player enjoys no-trade protection, their views are hardly irrelevant for a new ownership group that has not exactly endeared itself to local fans since taking the helm a few months back.

Miami previously shipped out veterans Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna, and Dee Gordon, each of whom was a key regular who came with contract rights beyond the 2018 season. Those deals relieved a significant portion of the team’s payroll pressure, though more paring is anticipated.

It was already fair to wonder whether and when Yelich, Realmuto, and others would be put on the block, but the question is now teed up publicly. At the same time, Hill issued a statement (which Crasnick tweets) saying “we will be the ones who initiate” any efforts to trade further veteran players.

Miami’s true plans are still a bit of a mystery. The organization has suggested it would like to attempt to build around some of its remaining established big leaguers, though it’s unclear as yet just how the team proposes to surround them with enough additional talent to create a contending roster in the near future. It’s certainly still possible the club is mostly just hoping to maintain its bargaining position by refusing to acknowledge that certain players are truly available.

Last we heard, multiple organizations were eyeing the talented Yelich. Along with Realmuto, he’s the most valuable trade asset in the organization, with enough outside interest that it seems the Marlins will enjoy a favorable bidding situation even if it’s made clear they are willing to make a move.

Cubs To Meet With Yu Darvish

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MONDAY: While the Cubs are evidently still looking at a number of rotation options, the interest in Darvish appears to be serious. Top Chicago execs Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer are meeting with Darvish and his reps in Texas, according to Bruce Levine of 670thescore.com (Twitter link) and Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter).

An in-person chat hardly suggests a deal is inevitable or even likely. But it’s a definite step beyond internal discussions or swapping texts with an agent. At the same time, to this point all indications have been that the Cubs are looking for the right price among a field of possibilities, with trade options and other free agents also in play.

SATURDAY: The Cubs have been very active on the pitching market this winter, and now they’re looking at the top free agent arm available. The club has interest in right-hander Yu Darvish, Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago reports. He’d be the fifth pitcher the Cubs have signed this offseason, joining two starters (Tyler Chatwood and Drew Smyly) and a pair of relievers (Brandon Morrow and Steve Cishek).

As MLBTR’s No. 1-ranked free agent (notably, Tim Dierkes & Co. forecast Darvish to the Cubs entering the offseason), the 31-year-old would require a far bigger commitment than anyone else Chicago has added in recent weeks. For a lofty price, Darvish would provide the back-to-back National League Central champions with a replacement for fellow free agent Jake Arrieta at the front of their rotation, filling out a starting quintet that would also include Kyle Hendricks, Jose Quintana, Jon Lester and Chatwood. It’s worth noting that Smyly might not pitch at all in 2018, having undergone Tommy John surgery last year, while Mike Montgomery would likely slot in as a reliever (to his chagrin, it seems).

Darvish, who debuted with the Rangers in 2012 and underwent a Tommy John procedure two years later, has pitched to a 3.42 ERA/3.30 FIP combination and logged 11.04 K/9 against 3.32 BB/9 across 832 1/3 major league innings. He ended last year with the Dodgers, who acquired him at the trade deadline, and mostly performed well. Darvish even earned one of the Dodgers’ four wins over the Cubs in a five-game National League Championship Series, tossing 6 1/3 frames of one-run, six-hit ball and notching seven strikeouts against one walk in Game 3. While Darvish struggled mightily in two World Series losses to Houston, including in Game 7, it’s up in the air whether that will tamp down his earning power to any noticeable extent (if at all).

Because Darvish was part of a midseason trade, he was ineligible to receive a qualifying offer after the conclusion of the campaign. Consequently, the team that signs him won’t have to surrender draft-pick compensation in the process. That’s not the case with fellow free agent righty Alex Cobb, who rejected a QO from the Rays and whom the Cubs were aggressively courting last weekend. But it seems the Cubs cooled on Cobb during this week’s Winter Meetings, where they found his asking price “prohibitive,” Levine reports.

Red Sox Re-Sign Mitch Moreland

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The Red Sox announced today that they’ve re-signed first baseman Mitch Moreland to a two-year deal that runs through the 2019 season. Moreland, a client of BASH Baseball, will receive a guaranteed $13MM, tweets ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick. Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston tweets that Moreland will earn $6.5MM in each of the next two seasons. He can earn another $1MM worth of incentives, per Crasnick.

Mitch Moreland | Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

It’s a surprising move for a Red Sox team that has been linked to Eric Hosmer and J.D. Martinez thus far on the free-agent market. The return of Moreland now makes a Hosmer signing decidedly unlikely, while a match with Martinez would now require an additional move elsewhere in the starting lineup (though that has long seemed likely to be the case). With Moreland back in the fold, he and his excellent defensive reputation figure to be at first base on a regular basis. The Sox will likely turn to Hanley Ramirez as their primary designated hitter once again in 2018.

While Moreland isn’t the big bat for which many Sox fans were pining, he’s coming off a decent season at the plate and another strong year with the glove. In 576 trips to the dish, Moreland slashed .246/.326/.443 with 22 homers and 34 doubles. He also turned in a stellar +10 mark in Defensive Runs Saved and drew a +4 rating from Ultimate Zone Rating for his efforts in 1170 innings at first base this past season. As always, Moreland was heavily shielded from lefties, though he held his own against them in 2017, hitting .247 with a .341 OBP against them in a small sample of 73 plate appearances.

Fitting Martinez or another slugger into the equation in Boston would now likely mean either trading an outfielder or cutting bait on the final season of Ramirez’s four-year, $88MM contract. Ramirez’s initial experiment as a left fielder in Boston was a flop, and the team quickly shifted him from the outfield to first base and DH, where he’s spent the past couple of seasons. Shoulder troubles limited Ramirez almost exclusively to DH duties in 2017, when he hit .242/.320/.429 in 553 plate appearances. The Sox have suggested that he’s healthy enough to play first base again in 2017, though his diminished offensive output suggests that there’s clearly room for an upgrade if the Sox are willing to eat the $22MM he’s owed this year.

If the Sox do ultimately stick with Ramirez, then the encouraging reports on his health likely mean that he could play first base on days when the Sox face a left-handed starter, shielding Moreland from those matchups once again. That’d create room for a right-handed bench bat to slot in at DH those days. Currently, Bryce Brentz would probably be in line to fill that role, though presumably that’s another area Boston will look to upgrade, whether with a dramatic splash (e.g. Martinez) or a more complementary approach (as they took two years ago when signing Chris Young).

From a payroll perspective, Moreland will push the Sox north of the $207MM mark (including arbitration projections and pre-arb players). The Sox, clearly, are in line to pay the luxury tax, though president of baseball ops Dave Dombrowski has previously stated that he didn’t consider staying under the threshold to be a priority this winter. How much they’re comfortable blowing past that $197MM barrier remains to be seen, though Boston doesn’t figure to simply bring back the same club it trotted out in 2017, so it stands to reason that they’ll continue to push past that point between now and Opening Day.

As for Hosmer, the move eliminates one of his primary landing spots, leaving the Padres now as the primary team that’s been connected to him this winter. Kansas City reportedly still hopes to retain Hosmer even as it embarks on a rebuild, so it would seem that there are at least two clubs yet vying for his services.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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