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2017 Opt-Out Clause Update

By Steve Adams | August 14, 2017 at 2:41pm CDT

The last look we took at the handful of players with opt-out clauses following the 2017 season was more than a month ago, and a few of their situations may have changed since that early July check-in. Here’s an update on this group of potential free agents…

[Related: MLBTR Free Agent Power Rankings: August Edition]

Trending Up

  • Justin Upton, Tigers ($88.5MM from 2018-21): There have been plenty of suggestions that there’s no way Upton will walk away from that contract, but we’re not really sold on that notion. Upton was terrible in his first three months with the Tigers but is hitting .274/.352/.542 (137 wRC+) with 45 homers dating back to July 1, 2016. Over the past calendar year, he’s hitting .281/.366/.571 (148 wRC+) with 40 homers in 631 PAs. He’s been seven to nine runs above average in left field, per UZR and DRS, as well. Upton will play next year at the age of 30 and needs only to feel he can top Hanley Ramirez’s guarantee to opt out. Beyond that, he may simply like the idea of moving to a team that isn’t openly trying to pare back its payroll and retool for the future.
  • Masahiro Tanaka, Yankees ($67MM from 2018-20): Tanaka’s home-run woes are an unequivocally troubling issue, but his numbers since the summer began are encouraging. Since May 26, Tanaka has a 3.99 ERA with 10.7 K/9, 1.9 BB/9 and a 47.6 percent ground-ball rate — good for a 3.12 xFIP and a 3.17 SIERA. The numbers are even better if you look at his past nine starts (3.00 ERA, 65 K, 12 BB, 57 innings). The health concerns are well known. Tanaka had a partial UCL tear in his rookie season but was able to avoid Tommy John, and he’s currently on the DL with what is reportedly some minor shoulder fatigue. The righty has averaged 2.2 HR/9 this year, but he’s also going to be just 29 years old next year. An opt-out looked highly unlikely two months ago but now looks entirely plausible, as long as this latest DL trip proves minor.
  • Welington Castillo, Orioles ($7MM player option): Since last check, Castillo has absolutely raked. He’s batted .308/.345/.500 with four homers and three doubles in his past 84 PAs, and his overall batting line it up to .283/.319/.457 (103 wRC+). Castillo’s framing marks have improved from some of the worst in the league to roughly average (per Baseball Prospectus), and he’s halted an incredible 46 percent of stolen-base attempts against him in 2017. He should be able to top a one-year, $7MM deal with ease this winter.

Trending Down

  • Greg Holland, Rockies ($15MM player option): Since our last check, Holland has reminded everyone that he is indeed mortal. In his past 11 2/3 frames, he’s coughed up eight runs on a dozen hits and six walks with 14 strikeouts. Six of those runs have come in his past two outings, but as long as that proves to be a blip on the radar, Holland still seems a safe bet to opt out. If he significantly fades in his first year back from Tommy John or lands on the disabled list, though, there’s at least a chance that he takes the option. Assuming he remains healthy, though, Holland will likely look to top Mark Melancon’s four-year, $62MM deal this winter.
  • Johnny Cueto, Giants ($84MM from 2018-21): It’s been almost a month since Cueto last set foot on a Major League mound, as he’s been sidelined with a forearm issue that has significantly clouded his chances of opting out. Reports earlier in the summer suggested that a slow start wasn’t going to deter Cueto from opting out, but a month-long injury scare and an ERA in the upper-4.00s certainly might. Cueto, 32 in February, has a 4.59 ERA with 8.0 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 and the second worst ground-ball rate of his career (39.2 percent). FIP, xFIP and SIERA all peg him at 4.41 or worse.

Unchanged Since Last Check

  • Matt Wieters, Nationals ($10.5MM player option): Wieters wasn’t hitting in early July, and he’s hitting even less now. His defensive reputation limited him to a two-year, $21MM deal with a player option after year one on the 2016-17 open market, and that was coming off a much better offensive season. Wieters seems extremely likely to take the $10.5MM in 2018.
  • Ian Kennedy, Royals ($49MM from 2018-20): Kennedy’s results have improved slightly since the last opt-out update, but it’s hardly enough to make it likely that he’ll opt out of that significant guarantee. Through 120 innings in 2017, Kennedy has averaged 1.65 HR/9, tying a career-worst mark, while both his strikeout and walk rates have gone the wrong direction. He’s also missed a couple of weeks with a hamstring injury, and he’ll turn 33 this December.
  • Wei-Yin Chen, Marlins ($52MM from 2018-20): No change here. Chen has scarcely been able to pitch in 2017 due to a reported partial tear of his ulnar collateral ligament. He’s reportedly still aiming for a late comeback, but that won’t be enough to give him the earning power to top his remaining guarantee.
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Minor MLB Transactions: 8/14/17

By Steve Adams | August 14, 2017 at 12:53pm CDT

Here are Monday’s minor moves from around the league…

  • The Blue Jays announced that right-hander Chris Smith has cleared waivers and been sent outright to Triple-A Buffalo. Not to be confused with the 36-year-old A’s righty of the same name, the younger Smith (28) made his big league debut with Toronto this season, allowing three runs on seven hits and a walk with one strikeout in five innings of work. Smith has a 4.10 ERA in 26 1/3 innings in the minors this year and a career 4.03 ERA and a 25-to-4 K/BB ratio in 29 Triple-A innings as well as a 2.58 ERA, 11.3 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 in parts of two seasons (73 1/3 innings) in Double-A.
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Toronto Blue Jays Transactions Chris Smith

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AL West Notes: Astros, Felix, Phelps, A’s, Rangers

By Steve Adams | August 14, 2017 at 11:55am CDT

The Astros acquired Tyler Clippard last night and swung a deal to acquire Francisco Liriano prior to the non-waiver trade deadline, but they’re still on the lookout for relief upgrades, tweets MLB Network’s Ken Rosenthal. Specifically, Houston hopes to add another left-handed reliever. Of course, with the best record in the American League, Houston won’t have a wide swath of quality relief arms from which to choose. The Astros’ stellar 72-45 record means they’re currently 14th in line for American League players that are placed on revocable waivers and dead last in line for National League players that are put through the same process. Desirable assets like Brad Hand, for instance, have no chance of making it to Houston via the waiver circuit.

From a purely speculative standpoint, the Astros could once again look at left-handed starters that have fared well against southpaws this season. Houston tried that route with the Liriano acquisition, though the early returns haven’t been pretty. Nonetheless, such an acquisition would come with a minimal or negligible cost. Derek Holland, for instance, has been effective against lefties but torched by righties this year and could likely be had for little more than salary relief. Alternatively, Houston could roll the dice on a struggling change-of-scenery reliever such as Ian Krol.

A bit more from the AL West…

  • Six days after landing on the disabled list due to bursitis in his right shoulder, Felix Hernandez is still at the strength-building stage of his recovery, Mariners manager Scott Servais tells Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune. Hernandez is currently on anti-inflammatory medication but has yet to begin throwing. His initial three- to four-week recovery timeline appears unchanged. There’s better news on David Phelps, though, Dutton writes. He’s progressing through a throwing program and could be activated as soon as this weekend against the Rays.
  • Athletics manager Bob Melvin said today in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM that Matt Olson and Matt Chapman are “definitely” the team’s corner infielders of the future (audio link via Twitter). The skipper exuded confidence in the duo’s defensive abilities, though each has also shown promise at the plate in his first extended look in the Majors. Olson is hitting just .211 but has a 10 percent walk rate and seven homers through his first 80 plate appearances. He’ll need to improve on his 36 percent strikeout clip, though his 24 percent mark in Triple-A offers some optimism in that regard. Chapman, meanwhile, is hitting a similar .228/.305/.507 with eight homers and a 9.7 percent walk rate through 154 plate appearances. He’s regarded as a superlative defender and has posted an outrageous +12 Defensive Runs Saved in just 351 innings.
  • Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram spoke to Adrian Beltre about the Rangers’ Wild Card hopes even after trading Yu Darvish prior to the non-waiver deadline. “I think we were a little disappointed trading one of the best pitchers in the last five years,” said Beltre. “…It was a little gloomy, but we had a little talk. … In this clubhouse, we are still grinding and believe we can get back in this.”
  • The Rangers have reached a pivotal point in their schedule as they hope to position themselves for a Wild Card berth, writes Gerry Fraley of the Dallas Morning News. With a four-game series against a depleted Tigers roster and three games against the rebuilding White Sox, the Rangers have a favorable slate of games on the horizon. Texas is currently just 3.5 games out of the American League’s second Wild Card spot and is coming off a series victory over the division-leading Astros this weekend. The majority of the American League still has some degree of Wild Card hope remaining, and the final two weeks of August figure to play a large role in what August moves (if any) fringe Wild Card clubs will make before month’s end.
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AL Central Notes: Verlander, Miller, Lopez, Sox

By Steve Adams | August 14, 2017 at 9:07am CDT

Too often overlooked in the general talk about Justin Verlander’s contract serving as an impediment to a theoretical trade is the amount of leverage that Verlander’s no-trade clause gives him, opines ESPN’s Buster Olney. Verlander currently can’t become a free agent until after his age-36 season, but his recent return to form would give him the ability to hold out for a contract extension in order to green-light a move to another club. (One middle ground, speculatively speaking, could be to push for his $22MM vesting option for the 2020 season to be exercised in advance.) A strong finish could make that all the more true if the Tigers hold him and look to move him this offseason. Verlander’s last seven starts have resulted in a 1.71 ERA with 9.6 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9, though he’s still received some help in terms of BABIP (.229) and strand rate (91 percent) in that time.

More from the AL Central…

  • Andrew Miller is scheduled to make a minor league rehab assignment on Wednesday this week, and the Indians are expecting him to need just one appearance before being activated, per Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer. If all goes well, that seems to point to a total of roughly two weeks on the shelf for Miller, who hit the disabled list back on Aug. 3. Hoynes also notes that outfielder Lonnie Chisenhall began a rehab assignment on Sunday, so he could return from a lengthier absence (on the disabled list since July 9) in the relatively near future as well.
  • The White Sox will monitor Reynaldo Lopez’s workload over the rest of the season, manager Rick Renteria tells Brian Sandalow of the Chicago Sun-Times, though the skipper declined to divulge a specific innings cap on the ballyhooed young righty. “I think everybody is very cognizant of pitch counts,” said Renteria. “Like we talked about last night, he has wipeout type stuff. He can strike out a lot of guys. Those guys tend to elevate in their pitch counts sometimes. We will be mindful of that.” Lopez totaled 153 1/3 innings between the Majors, Triple-A and Double-A last season. He’s currently pitched 127 innings between Triple-A Charlotte and his lone start with the ChiSox.
  • Following last night’s trade of Tyler Clippard to the Astros, the White Sox don’t have a single player on their roster with a save in 2017, as MLB.com’s Scott Merkin points out. Clippard, David Robertson, Dan Jennings, Tommy Kahnle and Anthony Swarzak have all been dealt to other clubs in the past five weeks, while excellent setup man Nate Jones is out for the remainder of the 2017 season. Merkin suggests that Jake Petricka and rookies Brad Goldberg and Aaron Bummer could all be candidates to get some save opportunities. Petricka, who has 16 career saves after spending part of the 2014 season as Chicago’s primary stopper, seems to be the logical candidate for saves of that bunch. However, each of the three has struggled considerably at the big league level in 2017. Of the others currently in the South Siders’ bullpen (depth chart), Greg Infante and Juan Minaya have had the best results this season.
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MLB Daily Roster Roundup: Harper, Suter, Taylor

By Jason Martinez | August 13, 2017 at 11:00pm CDT

IMPACT ROSTER MOVES

  • CIN: SP/RP Robert Stephenson activated from 10-Day DL; RP Austin Brice (strained lat) placed on 10-Day DL. | Reds Depth Chart
    • Stephenson pitched two innings in relief on Sunday. It’s not clear if he’ll return to the rotation in the near future.
  • HOU: RP Tyler Clippard acquired from White Sox for a player to be named later or cash considerations. | Astros Depth Chart | White Sox Depth Chart
  • MIL: INF Neil Walker added to 25-man roster; SP Brent Suter (strained rotator cuff) placed on 10-Day DL; SP/RP Michael Blazek designated for assignment. | Brewers Depth Chart
    • Walker batted 4th and played 3B with Travis Shaw (foot discomfort) sitting out on Sunday.
  • WSH: OF Bryce Harper (bone bruise on knee) placed on 10-Day DL; OF Michael Taylor activated from DL. | Nationals Depth Chart
    • Taylor played CF and batted 8th in the 2nd game of Sunday’s double-header.

—

FUTURE EXPECTED MOVES

  • ATL: OF Matt Kemp will likely be activated from 10-Day DL on Friday August 18th. | Braves Depth Chart
  • BAL: OF Anthony Santander (Rule 5 pick) will likely be activated from 60-Day DL on Thursday August 17th. | Orioles Depth Chart
  • COL: SP Chad Bettis will be recalled from minors on Monday August 14th; SP Kyle Freeland will be activated from 10-Day DL on Tuesday August 15th. | Rockies Depth Chart
  • DET: SP Michael Fulmer will be activated from 10-Day DL on Monday August 14th; RP Bruce Rondon will be optioned to minors. | Tigers Depth Chart
  • KCR: SP Jake Junis will be recalled from minors on Monday August 14th. | Royals Depth Chart
  • LAD: 1B Adrian Gonzalez will be activated from 60-Day DL during their upcoming road trip (Aug. 18-24) | Dodgers Depth Chart
  • NYY: SP Luis Cessa is likely to be recalled from minors on Monday August 14th. | Yankees Depth Chart
    • Cessa would be taking Tanaka’s rotation spot on Monday.

 

—

MINOR TRANSACTIONS

  • DET: RP Jeff Ferrell has contract purchased from minors; RP Edward Mujica designated for assignment. | Tigers Depth Chart
  • LAD: RP Chris Hatcher activated from 10-Day DL; C Kyle Farmer optioned to minors. | Dodgers Depth Chart
  • NYM: RP Kevin McGowan has contract purchased from minors. | Mets Depth Chart
  • NYY: RP/SP Caleb Smith recalled from minors; RP Giovanny Gallegos optioned to minors. | Yankees Depth Chart
  • TOR: RP Dominic Leone placed on Bereavement List; RP Matt Dermody recalled from minors.  | Blue Jays Depth Chart

 

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Daily Roster Roundup

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NL News & Rumors: Jeter, Stanton, Granderson, Giants, Kershaw

By Connor Byrne | August 13, 2017 at 8:22pm CDT

While the much-maligned Jeffrey Loria will soon hand off Marlins ownership to a group including Derek Jeter, the team’s spending habits aren’t going to change – at least not in the short term – says Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. The Marlins are in the red, losing tens of millions per year, and are in need of a new local television deal. Additionally, Rosenthal points out that Miami already has $95MM set aside for just eight players next season, and in his estimation, it would take roughly a $150MM payroll for the club to contend in 2018. Given the Marlins’ economic difficulties, they’re simply not in position to spend anywhere near that amount.

Despite the franchise’s financial troubles, one thing Jeter & Co. can’t do is unload world-class slugger Giancarlo Stanton’s mammoth contract, opines Buster Olney of ESPN. Doing so would serve as an immediate public relations hit to the new ownership team because it would give off a “same old Marlins” vibe, Olney reasons. Stanton, who hit his major league-leading 42nd home run Sunday, has $295MM remaining on his deal. That, plus Stanton’s full no-trade clause, could prove to be roadblocks even if the Jeter-led faction tries to jettison the soon-to-be 28-year-old.

More from the National League:

  • Mets outfielder Curtis Granderson, who cleared revocable trade waivers on Aug. 5, hasn’t generated much interest on the market, Marc Carig of Newsday reports. That could be thanks in part to the approximately $4.27MM remaining on Granderson’s contract. Even factoring in a nightmarish April in which he hit .128/.174/.221, Granderson has had another fine offensive season. Because the lefty-swinger remains a threat the plate, it’s still possible the Mets will find a taker for him in the next two-plus weeks, Carig writes. Regardless of where he finishes the season, Granderson would like to continue his career in 2018, which would be his age-37 campaign.
  • The Giants have considered moving starter Matt Moore to the bullpen, according to Andrew Baggarly of the Mercury News (on Twitter). Moore has pitched in relief just twice in 131 career appearances, both of which occurred during the left-hander’s short major league introduction with the Rays in 2011. The former big-time prospect has been somewhat disappointing as a starter, though, and has seen his velocity tumble this year amid what may be a career-worst season (5.71 ERA/4.67 FIP/4.91 xFIP in 135.2 innings). The Giants can either bring the 28-year-old Moore back next season on a $9MM club option or buy him out for $1MM.
  • The inimitable Clayton Kershaw could return to the Dodgers’ rotation by month’s end, Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times tweets. Kershaw, out since July 23 with lower back tightness, completed a second bullpen session Sunday and will pitch a simulated game Wednesday. Amazingly, the Dodgers have gone 15-3 without Kershaw, whose injury has prevented him from being part of the same rotation as ballyhooed trade deadline acquisition Yu Darvish. Those two figure to line up for Games 1 and 2 of the Dodgers’ NLDS matchup in October.
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25 Impending Free Agents Vying For Paydays

By Connor Byrne | August 13, 2017 at 6:32pm CDT

MLBTR chief Tim Dierkes released his latest free agent power rankings for the upcoming winter on Aug. 8, listing the top 10 soon-to-be unsigned players. But the prominent impending free agents who will be among the absolute best available in the 2017-18 class certainly aren’t the only players who have made cases for nice offseason deals, as you’ll see below…

Hitters

C – Alex Avila, Cubs: The Tigers reunited with Avila last winter for a guaranteed $2MM after he had a decent offensive year with the White Sox, but not one reminiscent of his lone All-Star season (2011). The lefty-swinging Avila has turned back the clock this year, though, with stellar production (.269/.390/.483 in 274 plate appearances) stemming from his familiar patience and a newly adopted fly ball-oriented approach. And the quality of contact the 30-year-old has made has been outstanding, as Statcast shows (via Baseball Savant). When the Cubs acquired Avila at last month’s non-waiver trade deadline, the change in teams relegated him from the starting job he had in Detroit to a backup role. But with star backstop Willson Contreras now on the shelf with a hamstring injury, Avila will have a few more weeks to showcase himself in a contract year. There’s potential for that to backfire, granted, considering Avila is a poor hitter against same-sided pitchers and isn’t a particularly effective defender.

1B – Yonder Alonso, Mariners; Lucas Duda, Rays; Logan Morrison, Rays:

Like Avila, both Alonso and Duda have switched uniforms over the past couple weeks. Alonso went from the Athletics to the Mariners after the former touted prospect finally broke out at the age of 30, while the Mets transferred Duda to Tampa Bay. Alonso, another fly ball-first convert, has had the stronger season of the two, though the left-hander’s still a liability versus southpaws and has cooled off in recent months. The 31-year-old Duda carries a more established track record than Alonso and is in the middle of yet another fine season. One of Duda’s teammates, the 29-year-old Morrison, has mimicked Avila and Alonso in generating outstanding results by hitting the ball in the air more. Tampa Bay allocated a guaranteed $2.5MM last offseason to Morrison, who has repaid the club with serious power (28 home runs, .268 ISO) and patience (14.1 percent walk rate) en route to a .249/.357/.517 line in 454 PAs.

It’s unclear how much demand there will be for first basemen during the upcoming offseason – last winter certainly wasn’t a great one for the position – but these three have done everything in their power to secure raises. They’ll also represent much cheaper alternatives to Eric Hosmer, the No. 1 first baseman set to hit the open market.

SS – Zack Cozart, Reds: The rebuilding Reds have haven’t been able to find a taker via trade for Cozart dating back to last season, which probably has more to do with a lack of demand at shortstop than his own performance. Cozart has long been a marvelous defender and was a 3.9 fWAR player in 174 games from 2015-16, a stretch in which he mixed that terrific work in the field with acceptable offense. More of the same seemed likely this season, but Cozart has been even better. Thanks to a shocking offensive breakout (.318/.404/.587 with 16 HRs and a .269 ISO in 354 PAs), the 32-year-old has put up 4.0 fWAR, which ranks first among free agents-to-be. All the more impressive is that Cozart has compiled that WAR in limited action, having gone on the disabled list twice.

The injuries could work against Cozart on the market, of course, and teams might not totally buy into the out-of-nowhere offensive brilliance. After all, Cozart’s running a .342 batting average on balls in play that’s markedly superior to his career number (.282), and his line drive, fly ball and ground-ball rates align with career norms. Still, the righty-swinger is undoubtedly a quality piece and someone who should outearn his 2017 salary ($5.33MM) going forward.

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INF/OF – Eduardo Nunez, Red Sox: Nunez has primarily played third base this season, but one of his main selling points is that he’s a multi-position guy. Along with the hot corner, the 30-year-old has lined up at second, short and left field on several occasions this season. Although Nunez, whom the Giants traded to the Red Sox last month, isn’t an especially well-regarded defender, the versatility and his offensive prowess combine to make him appealing. The right-handed contact specialist is now amid his third straight season with a better-than-average wRC+ (a career-best 116, per FanGraphs) and has followed last year’s 40-stolen base effort with 21 steals on 26 attempts.

OF – Jay Bruce, Indians; Howie Kendrick, Nationals; Carlos Gomez, Rangers; Jarrod Dyson, Mariners; Curtis Granderson, Mets:

The 30-year-old Bruce, whom the Mets just dealt to the Indians, is yet another player benefiting from hitting more fly balls, as FanGraphs’ Dave Cameron pointed out after the trade. Of course, decent offensive production isn’t really anything new for the lefty-hitting Bruce, who’s one home run away from reaching 30 for the fifth time. On the other hand, defensive metrics indicate he’s having a terrific year in the field, which is a notable change over his recent woes in the grass.

Kendrick has also been known as a good offensive player throughout his career, though the .345/.394/.469 line he has combined for with the Phillies and Nationals this season is obviously a mirage to some extent. The .420 batting average on balls in play won’t hold, for example. Still, as an outfielder/infielder who can hit, he’s a useful piece. The fact that Kendrick’s already 34 will scare off some teams during the offseason, however.

Gomez and Dyson, meanwhile, join the Royals’ Lorenzo Cain as the premier center field-capable options set to hit the market. It seems Gomez, 31, truly has put his disastrous stretch with the Astros from 2015-16 behind him. The former star with the Brewers experienced a renaissance as a Rangers reclamation project late last season and has continued to play well this year. Since hooking on with Texas, he has hit .262/.347/.483 with 23 homers, 16 steals and a 3.1 fWAR over 118 games. Texas believed in Gomez’s end-of-season performance in 2016 enough to re-up him for $11.5MM last winter, and his success since then should net the Scott Boras client another hefty payday.

Dyson’s drawbacks include the fact that he’s neither young (he’ll turn 33 on Aug. 15) nor a big-time offensive threat. He’s not exactly an automatic out, though, given that he reached base at a 34 percent clip last year and has gotten aboard 32.6 percent of the time this season. When Dyson does get on, he’s a terror. He’s set for a fifth 30-steal season, and his baserunning value goes beyond that – only Billy Hamilton has been better this year, according to FanGraphs’ BsR metric. Dyson’s also a fantastic defender. The best aspects of the ex-Royal’s game make him an extreme bargain for the Mariners at $2.8MM, so he clearly deserves more with free agency looming.

Set to turn 37 next March, Granderson is the oldest position player on this list, meaning a multiyear deal could be out of the question for the highly regarded veteran. The lefty-swinger remains a valuable offensive cog, though, and could be a fit for AL teams looking for someone who can play some outfield and hit enough to serve as a DH. Aside from a horrid April in which he batted .128/.174/.221, Granderson has been his typical above-average self with the bat (.230/.335/.472 with 16 HRs and a .242 ISO in 382 PAs).

Honorable mentions: Kurt Suzuki, C, Braves; Mark Reynolds, 1B, Rockies; Cameron Maybin, OF, Angels; Jon Jay, OF, Cubs; Austin Jackson, OF, Indians; Seth Smith, OF Orioles; Daniel Nava, OF, Phillies.

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Starters

Lance Lynn

Lance Lynn, Cardinals: Lynn missed all of last season on account of Tommy John surgery, which deprived the Cardinals of a starter who made 126 appearances out of their rotation from 2012-15 and combined for a 3.38 ERA over 756 2/3 innings. The post-Tommy John version of Lynn has actually been even more impressive in terms of run prevention (3.12 ERA in 138 2/3 frames), but it’s concerning that his strikeouts have decreased (7.5 per nine, down from 8.64 during the aforementioned four-year stretch).

While Lynn has benefited from an unsustainable .226 BABIP, he deserves credit for suppressing quality contact. According to Statcast, Lynn’s xwOBA against (.307) is right in line with the low wOBA (.299) he has surrendered. Not bad for someone who entered 2017 off a lost season. The 30-year-old doesn’t possess the ceilings of fellow potential free agents Yu Darvish, Jake Arrieta, Masahiro Tanaka and Johnny Cueto, but Lynn should still do rather well on his next contract.

Andrew Cashner, Rangers: Considering Cashner’s suddenly microscopic strikeout and swinging-strike rates, there’s a legitimate case that the righty’s stock has fallen this season. Yet his ERA has also plummeted (3.32 ERA through 114 innings), and he turned in his seventh consecutive quality start Sunday. Cashner has limited fly balls (50.4 percent grounder rate), which has helped lead to a career-best HR-to-FB ratio (7.5 percent) and his lowest ERA since 2014. The contact against the 30-year-old hasn’t been all that great, either, as his .311 wOBA/.321 xwOBA combo shows. Barring a noteworthy drop-off over the final month and a half of the season, Cashner may enter the offseason in position to better the $10MM guarantee Texas awarded him off a subpar 2016 last November.

Alex Cobb, Rays: Cobb, 29, no longer resembles the front-end type he was before he underwent Tommy John surgery in 2015, but the right-hander still looks more than capable of taking the ball every fifth day. Cobb has tossed 147 innings of 3.80 ERA ball in his full return from the procedure, having limited walks (2.27 per nine) and induced an average amount of grounders (45.7 percent) along the way. He has also lasted no fewer than six frames in 17 of 23 starts. While Cobb’s strikeout and swinging-strike rates are at career-worst levels (5.88 K/9 and 6.7 percent, respectively), his velocity looks normal, and both his .314 wOBA and.325 xwOBA against indicate he hasn’t been easy to square up.

Jason Vargas, Royals: Unfortunately for Vargas and the Royals, the southpaw has come back to earth since an incredible start to the season. The soft-tossing 34-year-old owned a 2.22 ERA as late as June 30, earning him an All-Star nod, but the number has climbed to 3.45 in his eight starts since then. Vargas allowed six earned runs in three of those starts and has only hit six innings twice since the outset of July. In the bigger picture, though, Vargas’ return from a 2015 Tommy John procedure has been a resounding success. The lefty has surpassed the 20-start mark for the first time since 2014 and has recorded strikeout (6.77 and walk (2.59) marks in line with career norms, to go with a personal-high 10.1 percent swinging-strike rate. And while Vargas’ .319 wOBA allowed is very good, his .311 xwOBA is even better.

Jhoulys Chacin, Padres: After he struggled across 22 starts with the Angels and Braves in 2016, the Padres added Chacin in a buy-low move, signing him for $1.5MM. San Diego has gotten significant bang for its buck from the 29-year-old Chacin, who has logged a 4.08 ERA with 7.34 K/9, 3.41 BB/9 and a 51.1 percent grounder rate in 137 1/3 innings. ERA indicators aren’t quite as kind (4.38 FIP, 4.37 xFIP, 4.56 SIERA), but they still peg Chacin as a roughly average starter. There’s no shame in that, nor is there anything wrong with a. 310 xwOBA/.303 wOBA against.

Honorable mentions: Trevor Cahill, Royals; Jaime Garcia, Yankees.

Relievers

Addison Reed, Red Sox: Reed, who was inconsistent with the White Sox and Diamondbacks earlier in his career, is now in the midst of his third straight quality season. Between the Mets and BoSox in 2017, the righty has recorded a 3.25 ERA over 52 2/3 innings. Reed doesn’t throw that hard, nor is he a strikeout machine relative to other relievers (8.89 per nine), but he helps himself by limiting free passes. Only two relievers, Kenley Jansen and Pat Neshek, have outdone Reed’s 1.2 BB/9. Add in the fact that Reed’s on the right side of 30 (29 in December) and has plenty of experience as a closer, and it’s obvious he’s going to clean up on the open market.

Pat Neshek, Rockies: The issue with Neshek is that he’ll turn 37 next month. Otherwise, the submarining righty has been a relief standout in recent years. He’s now enjoying his best season, having yielded 1.57 runs per nine through 46 innings with the Phillies and Rockies. Along the way, Neshek has teamed his longstanding aversion to walks with a 10.17 K/9 and his highest swinging-strike rate (14 percent) in over a decade.

Pat Neshek

Jake McGee, Rockies: McGee and his big fastball are back on the map after a rough 2016. The 31-year-old’s 3.77 ERA through 43 frames isn’t spectacular, but much of the damage came during a terrible outing on Friday.  ERA aside, the southpaw has handled both left- and right-handed hitters, and his strikeout rate has shot up to 10.26 per nine after sitting at an all-time low 7.49 a year ago.

Juan Nicasio, Pirates: The hard-throwing Nicasio is having his best relief season since he stopped serving as a full-time starter in 2014, having registered a 2.53 ERA with 9.28 K/9 and 3.04 BB/9 across 53 1/3 innings. The righty also has a .282 wOBA/.274 xOBA allowed, putting him in similar company to Cubs closer Wade Davis (.272/.269). As with Davis, a fellow free agent-to-be, a payday is on the horizon for the 30-year-old Nicasio.

Joe Smith, Indians: Smith had a down 2016 by his standards, but he still reeled in a $3MM guarantee from the Blue Jays in the offseason. While he’ll be 34 in 2018, the side-arming righty will garner a better deal in a few months. Between the Jays and Indians this year, Smith owns a 2.90 ERA over 40 1/3 innings and has posted 12.5 K/9 – a meteoric rise over last year’s 6.92 – against 2.23 BB/9. Even though Smith isn’t a high-velocity hurler, his 5.6 K/BB ratio ranks 10th among relievers.

Brian Duensing, Cubs: With a 2.42 ERA, 10.24 K/9 and 1.86 BB/9 across 48 1/3 innings, Duensing has quietly been one of the top bargain signings of last winter. The lefty took $2MM to join the Cubs in December, but despite his age (he’ll be 35 in February), Duensing will have an easier time in his next trip to the market.

Anthony Swarzak, Brewers: Swarzak wasn’t even able to land a major league contract last offseason, when he inked a minors deal with the White Sox. Signing Swarzak proved to be a great move by rebuilding Chicago, which got a few strong months from the 31-year-old righty and then flipped him to Milwaukee in a July trade. Swarzak has continued his effective ways with the Brewers, giving him a 2.14 ERA, 10.21 K/9 and 2.47 BB/9 in 54 2/3 innings between the two cities. Some of Swarzak’s success has come thanks to a 14.5 percent swinging-strike rate, which ranks 29th among relievers, and a high infield fly rate (17.2 percent) that only 13 fellow bullpen options have outdone. It’s fair to say he won’t be settling for a non-guaranteed pact again when winter arrives.

Yusmeiro Petit, Angels: Petit also signed a non-guaranteed deal last offseason, and he has repaid the Angels with a 2.36 ERA, 9.83 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 through a reliever-high 68 2/3 innings. Additionally, the 32-year-old has put up a lofty 19.5 percent infield fly rate, thus offsetting a low grounder clip (33.7 percent).

David Hernandez, Diamondbacks: Hernandez, yet another offseason minor league signing, joined the Braves in March before heading to the Angels in a small trade. The 33-year-old ended up as a revelation in Anaheim, but the team dealt him to the D-backs last month. Hernandez has continued to thrive in Arizona, where he previously pitched from 2011-15, and has combined for a 2.01 ERA, 9.15 K/9, 1.79 BB/9 and a 46 percent grounder rate through 40 innings.

Honorable mention: Brandon Kintzler, Nationals.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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AL News & Rumors: Mariners, Twins, Tigers, Jays

By Connor Byrne | August 13, 2017 at 4:00pm CDT

The Mariners have made multiple attempts to acquire right-hander Ervin Santana from the Twins, Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times reports. However, with the Twins currently ahead of the Mariners in the standings, Seattle’s dream of adding Santana is “on hold,” notes Divish. It’s unclear whether the Twins have placed Santana on revocable waivers this month, but as a proven mid-rotation type who’s under control through next season at a fair price ($13.5MM), it’s possible another team in front of the Mariners in the waiver pecking order would claim him. Moreover, the Twins aren’t all that interested in trading Santana, FanRag’s Jon Heyman suggested this week. Regardless, considering the injuries in their rotation – including to ace James Paxton – the playoff-contending Mariners need to find starting help. With that in mind, Divish lists a slew of righties (Marco Estrada, Andrew Cashner, Tyson Ross, Miguel Gonzalez, R.A. Dickey and Scott Feldman) and a southpaw (Derek Holland) as logical August trade targets.

More on Minnesota and two other AL franchises:

  • The Twins slumped immediately before the July 31 non-waiver deadline, leading them to sell a pair of veterans, closer Brandon Kintzler and lefty Jaime Garcia, for future pieces. Now that the team’s playing well again, the front office is willing to buy. “On a daily basis, we are active on the trade-waiver wire process,” general manager Thad Levine told Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com. “We’ve placed a lot of claims on players we think can help our team now and in the future. Needless to say, we haven’t made a trade yet, which is evidence to the fact that we may not be the only team that thinks those players would be attractive, and that some of the teams that are feeling the same way have worse winning percentages and hence higher claiming priority.” As team brass has demonstrated in recent weeks, especially when it flipped Garcia after he was a Twin for only a few days, its mindset is subject to change based on where Minnesota is in the standings. As such, another slide over the next couple weeks could lead to the Twins dealing more major leaguers, Bollinger points out.
  • The Tigers’ Nicholas Castellanos has lined up at third base in 512 of 521 career appearances, but a position change is looming, Evan Woodbery of MLive.com writes. Castellanos approached GM Al Avila and manager Brad Ausmus about moving to the outfield, and he began doing work in right before the Tigers played on Saturday. He’ll see game action there during the season’s final weeks if he shows progress in practice, revealed Ausmus, who added that Castellanos is “gung-ho” about a possible change. With minus-62 defensive runs saved and a minus-42.1 Ultimate Zone Rating in 4,000-plus career innings, the metrics indicate that the 25-year-old Castellanos hasn’t exactly been Nolan Arenado-esque at third base. And shifting him to the outfield, where he played in nine games as a rookie in 2013, would seemingly open up third for prospect Jeimer Candelario. The Tigers acquired Candelario, 23, from the Cubs last month in a trade involving reliever Justin Wilson and catcher Alex Avila. Candelario’s currently at Triple-A, but with Sept. 1 roster expansion on the horizon, he’ll be a factor in Detroit soon.
  • There’s no timetable for a comeback for Blue Jays right-hander Aaron Sanchez, who has dealt with blister issues throughout the season, per David Singh of Sportsnet. If Sanchez does return, he could finish the year in the bullpen, according to manager John Gibbons. With the minor league season nearing an end, there might not be enough time for Sanchez to ramp back up via rehab starts, observes Singh. The 25-year-old Sanchez’s injury woes have been one of the key reasons behind the Blue Jays’ disappointing 2017. Sanchez dazzled in 2016 – his first year as a full-time member of Toronto’s rotation – with 30 starts and 192 innings of 3.00 ERA pitching, but he has taken the ball just eight times this season.
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Detroit Tigers Minnesota Twins Seattle Mariners Toronto Blue Jays Aaron Sanchez Ervin Santana Nick Castellanos

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Nationals Place Bryce Harper On 10-Day DL With “Significant” Bone Bruise In Left Knee

By Mark Polishuk | August 13, 2017 at 3:42pm CDT

3:42pm: Manager Dusty Baker suggested to reporters, including Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post, that Harper could miss 10 days to two weeks, though he didn’t commit to that as an exact timetable (Twitter link). Regardless, Harper “will be back before the end of the season,” said Baker (via Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com, on Twitter).

10:22am: The Nationals have placed star outfielder Bryce Harper on the 10-day DL due to a hyperextended left knee.  Nats GM Mike Rizzo told reporters (including (USA Today’s Gabe Lacques and the Washington Post’s Jorge Castillo) that Harper suffered a “significant” bone bruise.  Michael A. Taylor has been activated from the DL to take Harper’s spot on the roster.

While Harper’s injury is clearly serious in nature and no timetable was provided for his return, this diagnosis is something of a relief to Harper, the Nats and their fans.  “We feel we dodged a bullet,” Rizzo said, noting that Harper didn’t suffer any ligament or structural damage to his knee.  Rizzo believes Harper will play again before the season is done, thus making him a factor to contribute in the Nationals’ postseason drive.

The team (and the entire baseball world) feared the worst after Harper suffered the nasty-looking injury last night, having to be helped off the field after slipping while crossing first base while attempting to beat out a ground ball.  Bone bruises can vary greatly in severity, so Harper may still miss significant time, though the Nats have enough breathing space atop the NL East to be cautious, Rizzo noted.

The fact that Washington has a 14.5-game division lead and baseball’s third-best record is somewhat remarkable given the number of significant injuries the club has suffered, particularly in the outfield.  Adam Eaton suffered a season-ending ACL tear in April, Jayson Werth is still sidelined indefinitely with foot injuries, and Taylor is only just returning after a month on the DL due to a strained oblique.  Shortstop Trea Turner could’ve potentially been a candidate to help fill these outfield gaps, though he has been out of action himself thanks to a fractured wrist.

If the Nats are going to be serious World Series contenders, however, obviously they’ll need Harper back in time for October baseball.  Harper was in the midst of a superb year, batting .326/.419/.614 with 29 homers over 472 plate appearances, and this injury absence is likely to cost him a chance at his second NL MVP Award in three seasons.

With Harper out, it seems as if Taylor, Brian Goodwin and Howie Kendrick will see much of the action as Washington’s first-choice outfielders, with Adam Lind and Andrew Stevenson providing some left-handed hitting flexibility off the bench.  Even this mix of players isn’t quite stable, as Kendrick has been recently bothered by a bad back.  It’s possible the Nationals could explore adding more outfield depth in a trade, though they’ll probably wait a week or two to monitor the statuses of Harper and Werth before deciding whether some external help is necessary.

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Newsstand Transactions Washington Nationals Bryce Harper Michael A. Taylor

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Nolan Arenado Suffers Hand Injury

By Connor Byrne | August 13, 2017 at 3:32pm CDT

3:32pm: Good news for the Rockies: X-rays came back negative on Arenado, who has a left hand contusion, tweets Saunders.

2:34pm: Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado left the team’s game Sunday in Miami in “considerable pain” after taking a pitch off the left hand from Marlins starter Vance Worley, according to Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. The extent of the injury is unknown at the moment, but it’s the second scare in as many days involving a National League superstar. Nationals right fielder Bryce Harper suffered a knee injury on Saturday, leading to a placement on the disabled list, though there’s hope that he’ll be back within a few weeks.

Arenado, like Harper, is an indispensable member of his team. He’s also the face of a Colorado club that owns a 65-51 record, giving it a 4.5-game lead on a wild-card spot. The Rockies appear bound for the playoffs for the first time since 2009, which is thanks in no small part to Arenado. The 26-year-old has been among the majors’ top players since his breakout campaign, 2014, and has continued his standout play this season. Thus far, Arenado has batted a robust .311/.361/.585 with 26 home runs and a major league-best 100 runs batted in across 497 plate appearances. He’s again delivering incredible value at the hot corner, too, with 17 defensive runs saved and a 6.5 Ultimate Zone Rating. Arenado’s two-way excellence has led to a 3.9 fWAR, which ranks 11th among NL position players.

After Arenado exited Sunday, the Rockies brought shortstop Trevor Story off the bench to take his place. Third base options on their roster include the just-promoted Ryan McMahon, Pat Valaika and Alexi Amarista.

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