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Starting Pitching Notes: Harvey, Cole, McCarthy, Greinke, Hellickson

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Starting pitchers could dominate talks leading up to this summer’s trade deadline, ESPN’s Buster Olney writes in his latest Insider-only column.  In addition to long-discussed trade candidates like White Sox southpaw Jose Quintana, struggling would-be contenders like the Mets, Blue Jays, Royals, and Pirates could put some of their own arms on the market if they’re fully out of the pennant race by July.  Olney’s column is well worth a full read for his listing of every potential name on the market, though here are a few of the particular hot stove notables…

  • Some evaluators believe the Mets would listen to offers for Matt Harvey if they fall out of the running in the NL East.  The former ace has been whispered in trade rumors for a couple of years due to both off-the-field controversy and a seeming likelihood that he will test the free agent market after the 2018 season (Scott Boras is Harvey’s agent).  Of course, Harvey’s stock has dropped due to an injury-plagued 2016 campaign, and the righty has been only average (4.25 ERA, 5.5 K/9, 1.8 K/BB rate) over 29.2 IP and five starts this season.  Harvey has been been homer-prone this season and his average fastball velocity is 93.8 mph, two full miles down from his 2015 velocity.  Still, as long as Harvey stays healthy, one would think he’d still receive a lot of deadline attention given his past history.
  • Gerrit Cole is also a Boras client, and since “there is a wide expectation” that Cole won’t stay with the Pirates when his current deal is up after 2019, the righty could be a deadline chip.  Olney writes that some teams felt Pittsburgh was even willing to listen to offers for Cole last year.  With two-plus years of team control left, Cole could well be the most sought-after name on the market if the Bucs indeed made him available, though Cole also has a fairly checkered injury history over the last three years.  The right-hander has a 3.60 ERA, 8.1 K/9, 4.5 K/BB rate, and 47.1% grounder rate through 30 innings this season.  Dealing Cole wouldn’t necessarily indicate a rebuild for the Pirates, as the team could seek to gain some MLB-ready young talent that could help them make a quick rebound in 2018.
  • Some contending teams could also look to shop pitching, as Olney notes that the Dodgers could again try to move Brandon McCarthy after they were unable to find a taker last winter.  McCarthy has a 3.10 ERA, 7.76 K/9, and 2.78 K/BB rate through 29 innings, finally looking to be in good form after missing much of 2015-16 due to Tommy John surgery.  Of course, given McCarthy’s long injury history, interested teams will surely want to see if the veteran can stay healthy before making any trade offers.  In my opinion, I’d think that the Dodgers might want to hang onto McCarthy given the team’s other injury and performance issues within their rotation.
  • Even with Zack Greinke pitching well and the Diamondbacks battling for first in the NL West, Greinke’s huge salary will still make the D’Backs open to discussing a trade, rival evaluators believe.  Greinke is owed roughly $167MM through the end of the 2021 season, single-handedly accounting for a such a big percentage of Arizona’s current and future payroll commitments that a trade may well be in the best long-term interest of the team.  Of course, if the D’Backs are still contending into July, GM Mike Hazen will face pressure to keep Greinke so he can help the club reach the postseason for just the third time in 15 seasons.
  • A busier-than-expected pitching market could also lead to some players staying put, as Olney suggests the Phillies could look to extend Jeremy Hellickson and make him a building block of their rotation.  Hellickson has a 1.80 ERA through 30 innings this season, though his ERA predictors and peripheral numbers (3.3 K/9, .196 BABIP, 86.2% strand rate, 3.63 FIP, 5.26 xFIP, 5.34 SIERA) suggest that he has been quite fortunate to get such good results.  One would think Philadelphia would try to sell high on Hellickson if he keeps outperforming the advanced metrics to such a large extent, though obviously other teams will be wary of those numbers as well.

MLBTR Originals

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Here’s the week’s original content from the MLB Trade Rumors writing staff and contributors…

  • The Angels’ 2009 draft would’ve been successful even if the team hadn’t drafted a certain all-time great with the 25th overall pick, as Chuck Wasserstrom outlines in his newest Inside The Draft Room piece.  Wasserstrom examines the scouting and decision-making process that went into the Halos landing Randal Grichuk, Tyler Skaggs, Garrett Richards and Patrick Corbin within the first two rounds, not to mention the franchise-altering selection of Mike Trout.
  • Ryan Howard’s five-year, $125MM extension with the Phillies drew criticism from the moment the deal was signed in April 2010.  MLBTR’s Jeff Todd looks back at how the Howard extension has become “a cautionary tale” or, for the Phillies, “something like the cost expended on a fancy diamond ring in a relationship that ultimately falls apart.”
  • Tim Dillard (a.k.a. The Man They Call @DimTillard) is back with his latest Inner Monologue, discussing some of the common terms you might hear around minor league clubhouses.  Feel free to yell “OK!  LET’S DO THIS!” before clicking on the link.
  • MLBTR’s Offseason In Review Series continued, with Steve Adams breaking down the winter moves of the Tigers, Twins, and Yankees.

Latest On The Marlins’ Potential Sale

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Here’s the latest surrounding the potential sale of the Miami Marlins…

  • Derek Jeter and former Florida governor Jeb Bush, who are leading one of the groups bidding for the Marlins, believe the team “has been spreading misinformation including the terms of the bid,” Ken Davidoff and Josh Kosman of the New York Post report.  Jeter and Bush “were exasperated” by apparently inaccurate reports from earlier this week saying they had reached a general agreement to buy the Marlins, as the Jeter/Bush group is still trying to line up investors.  A source tells Davidoff and Kosman that Jeter and Bush may eventually decide to not bid altogether: “These are not guys who can afford a vanity acquisition.  My guess is they will back out,” the source opines.  The Jeter/Bush group has enlisted the help of New York hedge fund financier Anthony Scaramucci as an advisor to bring some new investors into the bid, though Scaramucci himself won’t be joining the ownership group.
  • Joel Sherman of the New York Post breaks down the economics behind the potential sale, which goes well beyond the $1 billion-plus price tag.  Some in the game say the Marlins are $400MM in debt, and a new ownership faces losses in the range of $150-$200MM over its first few years of operations since the club lags behind in such revenue-generating streams as attendance, sponsorships, and a local TV contract.  “Some creative bookkeeping” will be required to work out the sale price no matter which competing group ends up buying the Marlins, and current owner Jeffrey Loria “will accept the fastest deal that meets his requests and he believes will be approved by the other owners” in order to get out from under this financial burden.
  • Given these costs involved in buying the Marlins, Sherman raises the possibility of another fire sale as a way that a new ownership group could cut costs.  Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe also raises the possibility, particularly in regards to trading Giancarlo Stanton.  The slugger is owed $63MM through the 2019 season, and then, if he doesn’t exercise his opt-out clause following that year, a whopping $244MM through the 2027 season.  Even though Miami would surely have to eat some of this contract in a trade, Cafardo still wonders if a deal could be reached given Stanton’s injury history and less-than-elite production in 2016.
  • Also from Cafardo’s piece, he reports that the ownership group led by Tom Glavine and Tagg Romney appears to have all of the investors arranged behind its $1.1 billion bid.  A source tells Cafardo that it doesn’t appear as though as of Glavine and Romney’s investors would leave the bid to join the Jeter/Bush group.
  • Marlins manager Don Mattingly and catcher A.J. Ellis are no strangers to performing under an ownership change, Bill Shaikin of the L.A. Times writes, as both were with the Dodgers during that team’s perhaps even more tumultuous sale from Frank McCourt to the Guggenheim Baseball ownership group.  “That uncertainty, at this stage, is definitely hanging,” Ellis said.  “There’s so many guys here who have been with the Marlins their whole life. That’s all they’ve ever known. It could be a huge life change for them.”

NL Notes: Nationals, D-backs, Dodgers, Cards

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Even though he’s facing a six- to nine-month recovery from his torn left ACL, Nationals center fielder Adam Eaton isn’t abandoning hope on playing again this season. “I’m going to work my butt off and give myself the best-case scenario to play,” Eaton told reporters, including Jamal Collier of MLB.com. “This year would be great, and if that is the case, that means we are playing in October, that is for sure.” Cubs left fielder/catcher Kyle Schwarber suffered multiple torn knee ligaments last April but was able to suit up again in late October for the World Series, of course, so it’s not impossible to imagine Eaton returning if the Nats get that far. However, Schwarber got hurt in early April, giving him a three-week head start on Eaton; further, unlike Eaton’s game, Schwarber’s isn’t predicated largely on either speed or defense. It’s also worth noting that Schwarber was not healthy enough to play the field during the Fall Classic, instead serving as a pinch-hitter in Chicago and a designated hitter in Cleveland.

When announcing Eaton’s injury Sunday, Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo mentioned that he’s confident in the team’s in-house center field options. Right fielder Bryce Harper and shortstop Trea Turner, both of whom have center field experience, are not among the possibilities to grab the reins from Eaton, according to manager Dusty Baker. When asked Sunday if he’d consider using either Harper or Turner in center, Baker responded (via Eddie Matz of ESPN.com): “No. Leave my team alone.”

For Washington on Sunday, life without Eaton began with a 23-5 drubbing of the NL East rival Mets. Harper hit a home run and reached base four times, but his performance paled in comparison to Anthony Rendon’s. The third baseman had an afternoon for the ages, going 6 for 6 with three homers and 10 RBI. In the process, Rendon became the 13th player in major league history to knock in double-digit runs in a single game.

Here’s more from the NL:

  • The Diamondbacks project Archie Bradley as a long-term starter, but the right-hander won’t go back to the rotation in the wake of Shelby Miller’s season-ending elbow injury, manager Torey Lovullo announced Sunday (via Barry M. Bloom of MLB.com). “He will remain in our bullpen,” Lovullo said of Bradley. “The way we look at it is he’s been pretty dominant in the bullpen.” With a 1.20 ERA, 10.8 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 in 15 innings, the 24-year-old Bradley has indeed been almost untouchable as a reliever this season. Bradley wasn’t nearly as good as a starter from 2015-16, a 177 1/3-inning stretch in which he recorded a 5.18 ERA, 8.42 K/9 and 4.52 BB/9. While it’s a certainty that he’ll stay in the bullpen, it’s unclear who will take Miller’s spot in the rotation. “Those are the discussions we’re having,” Lovullo stated. “And within the system there are a variety of options for us. So, we’ll hammer that out. That’s a discussion we’ll be having as a group over the next few days.”
  • Dodgers outfielders Joc Pederson and Franklin Gutierrez are nearing returns from the disabled list, relays Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times (Twitter links here). Pederson, who hit the DL with a groin injury this past Monday, will begin a rehab assignment at Single-A on Wednesday. The Dodgers’ hope is that he’ll be ready for activation Friday. Gutierrez, down since April 12 with a hamstring strain, started a rehab assignment of his own at Class-A on Saturday. With those two coming back, top prospect Cody Bellinger will likely return to Triple-A. The 21-year-old homered twice in the Dodgers’ improbable win over the Phillies on Saturday, contributing significantly to the excellent .316/.409/.632 line he has posted across his first 22 major league plate appearances.
  • It seems Cardinals third baseman Jhonny Peralta’s DL stint is largely the result of a bad reaction to medication, as Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes. Peralta began taking pills toward the end of spring training in an effort to combat an upper respiratory infection, but they only worsened his condition and left him feeling “dizzy” and lethargic. Manager Mike Matheny took notice. “We watched him throughout most of spring and it was, ‘Hey, he’s really moving well, he looks strong.’ And then something hit a point and I started asking the medical guys, ‘Is there anything going on?’ Yeah, he has some upper respiratory stuff. But let’s look into this. It just doesn’t look right. Jhonny was really good about being honest about how he was feeling and not doing the, ‘I’m just going to grind and go.’” Peralta is now on the right track, fortunately, having stopped taking the medication. He could rejoin the Cardinals as early as May 8, per Goold.

Noah Syndergaard Leaves Start With “Possible Lat Strain”

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2:25pm: Syndergaard has a “possible lat strain,” according to the Mets. After opting against an MRI previously, he’ll head back to New York to undergo one (Twitter link via Bob Klapisch of the Bergen Record).

1:25pm: In what could be a disastrous turn of events for the Mets, ace Noah Syndergaard left his start against the Nationals on Sunday after 1 1/3 innings with an apparent injury. The right-hander grabbed his biceps as he walked off the mound with a trainer, David Lennon of Newsday was among those to report (via Twitter).

Syndergaard was supposed to start for the Mets this past Thursday, but they had to scratch him on account of biceps discomfort, which makes Sunday’s development all the more troubling. The 24-year-old denied a request to undergo an MRI, telling reporters (via ESPN.com): “I think I know my body best. I’m pretty in tune with my body, and that’s exactly why I refused to take the MRI.”

General manager Sandy Alderson noted that Syndergaard’s decision was unusual and added, “I can’t strap him down and throw him in the tube.”

A serious injury to Syndergaard would be the most significant blow yet to a starting staff that hasn’t been the picture of health this season. Both Steven Matz and Seth Lugo have been out all year with injuries, and neither will return imminently. Meanwhile, Matt Harvey hasn’t been sharp in his comeback from the thoracic outlet syndrome surgery he underwent in 2016, and Zack Wheeler has run up a 4.78 ERA (albeit with a 3.83 FIP) in his first action since undergoing Tommy John surgery in March 2015. Health hasn’t been a problem lately for Robert Gsellman, on the other hand, though run prevention has (6.23 ERA, 3.69 FIP).

The flame-throwing Syndergaard was ineffective in his brief start Sunday, yielding four earned runs on five hits and two walks, but his numbers for 2017 remain excellent. Arguably the best righty in the majors, Syndergaard has logged a 2.96 ERA, 10.54 K/9, .66 BB/9 and a 57.7 percent ground-ball rate through 27 1/3 frames. He and Jacob deGrom have continued to serve as front-line starters this year for a club that entered the season with World Series hopes but has won only 10 of its first 23 games.

Rockies Activate Ian Desmond, Designate Cristhian Adames

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As expected, the Rockies have activated Ian Desmond from the disabled list. Desmond will make his 2017 debut in left field Sunday for the Rockies and take the roster spot of infielder Cristhian Adames, whom the team has designated for assignment.

Adames, a member of the Rockies organization since 2008, first appeared in the majors in 2014 and has since hit just .206/.283/.278 in 343 career plate appearances. The majority of his work (256 PAs) came last year, when he batted .218/.304/.302. The 25-year-old collected another 14 big league PAs this month and failed to record a hit, also striking out six times and walking only once.

Giants Designate Neil Ramirez For Assignment

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The Giants have designated reliever Neil Ramirez for assignment and selected the contract of fellow reliever Bryan Morris from Triple-A, according to a club announcement.

Ramirez inked a minor league deal with the Giants over the winter and then made the team’s Opening Day bullpen. Things didn’t go well for the 27-year-old, though, as he threw 10 1/3 innings with the Giants this month and allowed 15 earned runs on 16 hits. However, Ramirez did post a lofty strikeout total (18) while limiting walks (four). His issues preventing runs this season have stemmed from a somewhat high home run-to-fly ball ratio (13.3 percent). The long ball was an even bigger problem last year for Ramirez, who spent time with the Cubs, Twins and Brewers and allowed homers on 21.1 percent of fly balls, leading to a 6.00 ERA across 24 innings.

In 57 2/3 frames with the Cubs from 2014-15, Ramirez only surrendered HRs at a 4.3 percent clip. Thanks in part to that stinginess, and a 10.61 K/9 and 3.59 BB/9, he recorded a 1.87 ERA during those two seasons. Ramirez has long had difficulty generating ground balls, however, as the 2007 first-round pick has done so just 28.3 percent of the time in 92 career big league innings.

Like Ramirez, the 30-year-old Morris signed a minors pact with the Giants during the offseason. Although he has registered below-average strikeout and walk rates per nine (6.4 and 3.77), the former Pirate and Marlin owns an impressive 2.80 ERA in 280 innings. He has helped his cause with a 58.6 percent grounder rate.

Rangers Claim Pete Kozma From Yankees

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The Rangers have claimed infielder Pete Kozma off waivers from the Yankees, per an announcement from New York. Texas will make a corresponding move to create room for Kozma when he reports, tweets Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News.

The 29-year-old Kozma had been in limbo since the Yankees designated him for assignment Friday, which came when the team activated shortstop Didi Gregorius from the disabled list. Kozma appeared in 11 games this month for the Yankees, though he only collected 10 plate appearances. The ex-Cardinal didn’t play in the majors at all last season, instead spending the year with the Yankees’ Triple-A affiliate. Kozma hit a non-threatening .222/.288/.293 in 693 plate appearances with St. Louis from 2011-15, but he did provide quality work at shortstop with 11 Defensive Runs Saved and a 9.9 Ultimate Zone Rating in 1,432 innings at the position.

For Texas, the addition of Kozma could lead to a minor league demotion for former star prospect Jurickson Profar, Grant suggests (on Twitter). In 15 games this year, most of which have come in left field, Profar has posted a .135/.289/.135 line across 46 PAs. He hasn’t appeared in a game since April 25.

Aaron Sanchez Exits Start After Blister Troubles Resurface

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12:46pm: Sanchez’s return did not go smoothly. His blister issues resurfaced, forcing him to depart after one inning, reports Gregor Chisholm of MLB.com.

9:52am: As expected, the Blue Jays have activated right-hander Aaron Sanchez from the 10-day disabled list. Sanchez, who went on the DL on April 15 with a blister on the middle finger of his pitching hand, will start Sunday against the Rays.

The Blue Jays have had to go without both Sanchez and J.A. Happ for a significant portion of the young season, which hasn’t helped matters during a disastrous start for the 7-17 club. The absences of Sanchez and Happ have led to starts for Mat Latos and Casey Lawrence, and while the former has managed decent results, the latter’s output has been unsightly. Latos, in spite of an ugly 4.09 K/9 and 5.73 BB/9, has pitched to a 3.27 ERA over two starts (11 innings). Lawrence, whom the Jays optioned to Triple-A on Friday, has also made two starts, in which he has a logged a 3.97 K/9, 4.76 BB/9 and a 7.94 ERA over 11 1/3 frames.

Before hitting the DL, Sanchez was a mixed bag over his first two starts, though it seems his blister issues were at the root of his 5 1/3-inning, five-earned run showing against the Orioles on April 14. In his season debut, a 3-2 loss to the Rays on April 8, the 24-year-old resembled a front-line starter – which he was last season. Sanchez fired seven innings of one-run ball, striking out six, walking three and allowing four hits, and will once again try to stymie Tampa Bay on Sunday. He’ll slot back into a rotation that includes Marcus Stroman, Marco Estrada and Francisco Liriano, all of whom have fared well this year, and Latos.

Minor MLB Transactions: 4/30/17

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Sunday’s minor moves:

  • Pirates catcher John Bormann is going from Single-A to the majors. The Pirates have selected Bormann’s contract and optioned outfielder Danny Ortiz to Triple-A, per a team announcement. Bormann, whom the Bucs chose in Round 24 of the 2015 draft, has hit just .232/.282/.310 in 328 low-minors plate appearances since joining the Pittsburgh organization. His promotion might be an indicator of health troubles with starting catcher Francisco Cervelli, Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette suggests (on Twitter). It’s unclear what could be wrong with Cervelli – although he’s off Sunday, he caught the Pirates’ previous five games and has appeared in 22 of 23 contests this season. Cervelli previously missed a large chunk of 2016 with a broken hamate bone in his left hand.

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