Steve Adams
- Good afternoon! Sorry to start a bit later than usual today. Schedule moved around a bit with Darragh having a well-deserved day off. We'll get going at 3:30pm CT, but feel free to ask questions ahead of time, as always.
- Good afternoon! Let's get underway
El Chupacabra
- If the Royals were to trade Seth Lugo today, how much more - or less - would the return likely be vs. if they waited until the trade deadline?
Steve Adams
- I don't think the return would be materially different. You could say the acquiring team might be forced to give up more to compensate for the extra month of control, but there'd also be fewer teams bidding, which could impact the price as well. The extent to which those offset each other can really only be theorized upon.For what it's worth, I also don't expect the Royals to trade Lugo. They're intent on contending, and GM JJ Picollo was recently quoted on record when discussing how important back-to-back playoff appearances would be.
Further, as I often say, player options/opt-outs are so hard to navigate in trade talks. Eventually we'll see a prominent player with an opt-out at season's end traded, but these guys never really move in actuality. The team trading for Lugo would have to know he's either going to pitch well and opt out or that he'd get hurt and/or see his performance tank and forgo the out... thus saddling them with an unwanted salary on the 2026 books.
- That makes it really hard to agree on prospects to be exchanged in the deal, as the Royals will want to market him like a playoff-caliber starter but the acquiring team knows that if he bombs, they're essentially taking on a bad contract. Pricing in that downside makes the trade less appealing for Kansas City. And, again, the Royals probably don't really want to trade Lugo in the first place.
Stockholm, AZ
- What are the Diamondbacks gonna do? That was a crap series against Miami, and now they’re under .500. Season beyond rescue? I had such high hopes..
Steve Adams
- I just have a hard time seeing them wind up in genuine contention with Carroll out, Burnes out, and Zac Gallen pitching more like Zack Godley. Even if this iteration of the D-backs got to the postseason, could they feel good about a playoff rotation of this version of Gallen and Merrill Kelly leading the way, followed by one of Pfaadt or E-Rod? And without Justin Martinez or AJ Puk in the bullpen? It just feels like a soft reset (trading Suarez, Kelly, Gallen, etc.) is kind of inevitable to me.
RoxTalks
- Does the Rockies' nepotism hiring of Monfort's son to be executive VP basically ensure this team will be bad forever? It is extremely difficult to continue to support this team. Cannot believe the league allows stuff like this.
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Padres Designate Logan Gillaspie For Assignment
The Padres announced Monday that they’ve reinstated right-hander Logan Gillaspie from the 15-day injured list. Rather than add the out-of-options righty back to the active roster, San Diego has designated him for assignment.
Gillaspie, 28, has been out since late April due to an oblique injury. He appeared in three games for the Friars in 2025, tossing seven innings and holding opponents to just two runs. He did so with matching 12.9% strikeout and walk rates, however, and gave up quite a bit of loud contact along the way (92.1 mph average exit velocity, 45.5% hard-hit rate).
This is the fourth straight season in which Gillaspie has logged at least some big league time. He’s pitched a total of 44 2/3 MLB frames between the Orioles and Padres, logging a combined 4.63 earned run average with a 14.5% strikeout rate, 6% walk rate and 35.7% ground-ball rate. Gillaspie has averaged 95.1 mph on his four-seamer in his career (94.7 mph in 2025) and typically pairs the pitch with an 83-84 mph slider, an 87-88 mph changeup and an 82-83 mph curveball (in descending order of use). At least in his brief three-inning look this year, he’d also begun to mix in a cutter that sat 91.5 mph.
Gillaspie has worked exclusively as a reliever ever since reaching High-A. Originally signed by the Brewers as an undrafted free agent, he’s now pitched in in four Triple-A seasons as well, logging a 4.37 ERA, 23.3% strikeout rate and 8.1% walk rate in 129 2/3 innings. The Padres can trade Gillaspie or place him on waivers at any point in the next five days. Waivers are a 48-hour process, so his DFA will be resolved within a week’s time. Since Gillaspie has never been outrighted and doesn’t have three years of big league service, he’ll stick with the organization as a depth arm in Triple-A if he passes through waivers unclaimed.
Phillies Reinstate Bryce Harper, Designate Buddy Kennedy For Assignment
The Phillies announced Monday that first baseman Bryce Harper has been reinstated from the 10-day injured list. To make room on the active roster, Philadelphia designated utilityman Buddy Kennedy for assignment.
Harper missed just under four weeks due to inflammation in his wrist. He’ll be back in the heart of the Phillies’ order starting Monday, looking to improve on a .258/.368/.446 slash. That’s quality output at the plate — 26% better than average, per wRC+ — but constitutes a “down” season relative to Harper’s lofty standards.
To his credit, Harper touted a more robust .276/.382/.470 line in late May but hit only .143/.273/.286 in eight games before landing on the injured list, so it seems his wrist had been bothering him for awhile before he finally sat down to let it heal up. Manager Rob Thomson said at the time of Harper’s IL placement that the wrist had been bothering the former NL MVP for “awhile” without specifying just how long. Harper was also plunked on the elbow by a Spencer Strider heater in the middle of the eight-game slump that preceded his IL placement and missed several games in the aftermath, so it’s likely that he was pretty banged up by the time Philadelphia pulled the trigger on an IL stint.
Kennedy, 26, has now been designated for assignment twice by the Phillies this year. He’s out of minor league options and didn’t make the club out of spring training, prompting a DFA and a quick return on a minor league deal after he briefly elected free agency. He was selected back to the majors just 11 days ago and appeared in only four games, going hitless with a walk in a small sample of eight plate appearances.
Kennedy has appeared in parts of four major league seasons between the D-backs, Tigers and Phillies, but he’s only tallied 157 plate appearances in that time. He’s a .193/.287/.296 hitter at the big league level but touts a nice .281/.391/.437 slash in nearly 1600 Triple-A plate appearances. He’s primarily played second base and third base in pro ball but does have more than 400 innings at first base and 93 innings of left field work under his belt.
The Phillies can trade or waive Kennedy at any point in the next five days. Waivers are a 48-hour process, so he’ll have a resolution on his DFA within a week’s time. If Kennedy clears waivers, he’ll have the right to reject a minor league assignment in favor of free agency.
Athletics Select Colby Thomas
The Athletics announced a series of roster moves Monday, notably selecting the contract of well-regarded outfield prospect Colby Thomas from Triple-A Las Vegas. The A’s also reinstated Shea Langeliers from the 10-day injured list, recalled reliever Justin Sterner from Vegas and optioned outfielder JJ Bleday, righty Tyler Ferguson and catcher Willie MacIver to Triple-A.
Thomas, 24, was the Athletics’ third-round pick in 2022. He’s steadily climbed the minor league ranks and currently sports a .297/.365/.542 slash with Las Vegas, although given the extraordinarily hitter-friendly setting, that’s only about 11% better than league average (111 wRC+) when adjusted for home park and league run-scoring environment. Thomas’ 26.3% strikeout rate, 7.3% walk rate and massive pop-up rate — a staggering 28% of his fly-balls are infield flies — aren’t ideal, but he’s also hitting plenty of line drives.
Baseball America and MLB.com both list Thomas among the system’s top-five prospects, whereas FanGraphs had Thomas way down at 27th in the system citing concerns over his hit tool and overaggressive approach at the plate. Both BA and MLB raise those flaws as well, but Thomas’ raw tools — above-average to plus grades on his power, speed, outfield defense and arm strength — lead to a more favorable overall rating at both outlets, questions in the batter’s box notwithstanding.
Thomas joins an outfield mix that includes Lawrence Butler in right field, defensive standout Denzel Clarke in center and slugger Tyler Soderstrom in left. Designated hitter Brent Rooker can cycle into the corners as well but has just 202 innings on defense dating back to Opening Day 2024. Thomas’ right-handed bat could serve as a complement to the lefty-swinging Soderstrom, who’s batting just .205/.235/.269 against lefties this year (81 plate appearances) but .268/.367/.485 versus righties.
Langeliers returns after missing nearly four weeks with an oblique strain. He batted .237/.300/.430 with 10 homers in 230 plate appearances prior to the injury, continuing his trend of providing low average/OBP marks with above-average pop.
Ferguson was solid for the A’s in 2024 but has seen his velocity, strikeout rate, swinging-strike rate, walk rate and home run rate all trend in the wrong direction in 2025. He’s currently sitting on a 6.69 ERA in 35 innings.
Last year, Bleday looked to have broken out as a quality hitter and potential core piece with the A’s. His glovework in center field was brutal, but Bleday slashed .243/.324/.437 with 20 homers in 642 plate appearances. He’s drawing tons of walks with slightly above-average power again in 2025, but Bleday’s contact rate, strikeout rate and infield fly rate have all trended the wrong way in ’25. This is now the second time he’s been optioned, and went just 5-for-37 between minor league stints before being sent back down. There’s still room for him to bounce back and reclaim a spot in the Athletics’ long-term plans, but right now his stock is down considerably relative to 2024.
Submit Your Questions For This Week’s Episode Of The MLBTR Podcast
On the MLB Trade Rumors podcast, we regularly answer questions from our readers and listeners. With the next episode set for Wednesday, we’re looking for MLBTR’s audience to submit their questions and we’ll pick a few to answer.
The 2025 season is chugging along, and the trade deadline is just over four weeks away. If you have a question about the campaign, a look ahead to the deadline or anything else baseball-related, we’d love to hear from you! You can email your questions to mlbtrpod@gmail.com.
Also, if you want to hear your voice on the podcast, send us your question in audio form and we might play it. iPhone users can find instructions on how to do so here.
In the meantime, don’t forget to subscribe to the podcast on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.
Poll: Should The Pirates Trade Mitch Keller?
The second year of the Paul Skenes era in Pittsburgh is not going well. The Pirates are currently 35-50, leaving them buried in both the NL Central and the Wild Card race. The Bucs stand as one of the few clear sellers this summer, and it seems as though the team is operating with very few untouchables. One of the names that’s gotten the a good bit of buzz this summer is right-hander Mitch Keller, who has drawn attention as one of the few established, controllable starting pitchers with a chance to be dealt.
The Cubs have come up as a potential suitor for Keller, and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported yesterday that the sides have been discussing a deal for more than a week. That’s not necessarily an indication that a trade, whether with the Cubs or otherwise, is particularly close. Still, it lends credence to the idea that the Pirates are serious in their willingness to consider moving the right-hander. That’s at least a mild surprise, given that he’s in just the second season of a five-year contract, but there’s a case to be made that the Pirates should capitalize right now.
After all, Keller is making $54.5MM over the final three years of his contract. That’s a below-market sum for a solid mid-rotation veteran but still steep for the perennially low-budget Pirates. Pittsburgh has already assembled an impressive group of young pitching talent with Skenes, top prospect Bubba Chandler, and injured-but-talented righty Jared Jones leading the pack. With affordable arms like Mike Burrows, Braxton Ashcraft and Thomas Harrington already having debuted, and well-regarded prospect Hunter Barco not far behind, the Pirates are amassing some enviable pitching depth. (That doesn’t include left-hander Bailey Falter, who’s affordably controlled for three more seasons.)
Pittsburgh would arguably be better off spending Keller’s salary on some sorely needed offense. Teoscar Hernandez, for example, signed with the Dodgers for a similar amount: $66MM over three years, with enough money deferred to lower the net present value of the contract to just under $60MM. Gleyber Torres, Tyler O’Neill, Christian Walker, and Pete Alonso are among the other hitters who signed for $60MM or less guaranteed this past winter. Not all of those deals have worked out, and there are always dangers of spending on even mid-range free agents like this, but the Pirates could have made reasonably competitive bids for some notable veterans on the open market with a sum comparable to what they still owe Keller.
Aside from the ability to reallocate financial resources, moving Keller would surely come with a solid return. Cost-controlled starting pitching is typically the most valuable commodity on the trade market, and while Keller is hardly elite given his 109 ERA+ this year, his affordable contract and year-to-year stability would give the acquiring club additional long-term certainty in their rotation that a rental pitcher like Zac Gallen could offer.
Using the Cubs’ system as an example due to their status as a rumored suitor for Keller, it’s easy to see why the Pirates might be willing to deal within the division. Chicago has a number of quality position player prospects knocking on the door of the big leagues. Outfielder Owen Caissie has 12 home runs and a 125 wRC+ at Triple-A Iowa as a 22-year-old this year. Catcher/DH Moises Ballesteros, outfielder Kevin Alcantara, and infielder James Triantos are all close to MLB-ready as well. Triantos’ stock is down after a difficult and injury-marred start to the 2025 season, but a package centering around one of those other young hitters could be appealing for a Pirates club that is looking to players like Andrew McCutchen and Spencer Horwitz to fill out the middle of its order at present. Other clubs with upper-level position player prospects have undoubtedly inquired on Keller, too.
As appealing as some of the arguments for trading Keller may be, there are real concerns that would come with making a deal. Keller was once looked at as a potential No. 2 starter during his prospect days and, while he hasn’t lived up to that potential yet, he’s not far removed from a three-WAR season wherein he struck out 25.5% of his opponents. His 4.21 ERA that year was pedestrian, but his 3.83 SIERA was 18th-best in baseball among qualified starters, just behind Logan Gilbert and ahead of players like Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, and Dylan Cease. Keller is still just 29 years old, and he certainly wouldn’t be the first pitcher to take a step forward in the middle of his prime. If the Pirates believe Keller still has another gear, they might prefer to hold onto him in hopes that he can unlock it and increase his trade value or his value to the Pirates themselves.
Aside from the possibility of selling at less than peak value, it’s worth noting how much uncertainty there is when it comes to developing pitching. The Tigers drafted Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize back in 2018 but only began to truly see the fruits of that labor last year after both players were derailed by injuries early in their career. Jones is already recovering from elbow surgery, and with pitching injuries seemingly more frequent than ever, it can be hard to part with a steady arm like Keller. Given the soaring price of pitching in free agency, the Pirates would likely have to keep scoring deals on low-cost veterans like they did with Andrew Heaney this year in order to fill out and create depth behind their young rotation mix.
How do MLBTR readers think the Pirates should act regarding Keller? Should they move to trade him in order to help boost the offense for their young arms, or should they hang onto him as a veteran presence and hope he can increase his value from here? Have your say in the poll below:
The Opener: Brown, Waldron, Schmitt
Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day:
1. Brown to sign?
Outfielder Seth Brown elected free agency last week after being designated for assignment by the Athletics, and a report from MLBTR’s Anthony Franco yesterday afternoon indicates that Brown is deciding between three teams and is likely to sign somewhere within the coming days. The 32-year-old outfielder struggled badly through 38 games with the A’s this year, slashing just .185/.303/.262 across 76 plate appearances. Tough as this season has been for Brown, however, he hit a respectable .225/.289/.426 with 73 homers and 102 wRC+ from 2021 to 2024. He also boasts a career 109 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, so a club that struggles to produce against righties could benefit from his services if they’re willing to look past his poor start to the year.
2. Waldron to make season debut:
Right-hander Matt Waldron is set to make his season debut later today, per a report from Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Waldron will be on the mound for the Padres in Philadelphia when they take on the Phillies at 6:35pm local time (3:35pm CT). The knuckleballer posted a pedestrian 4.91 ERA (84 ERA+) in 146 2/3 innings of work last year, but his 4.26 FIP and a 4.13 SIERA both indicated that he could benefit from some positive regression in the future. He’s made five starts at Triple-A this year since returning from an oblique strain that sidelined him at the beginning of the season, and now that he’s back in the big leagues he’ll face off against Phillies ace Zack Wheeler (2.45 ERA).
3. Schmitt to undergo MRI:
The Giants’ infield has been stretched thin lately as third baseman Casey Schmitt has been forced to sit since he was hit in the wrist by a pitch on June 25. A CT scan showed no fracture and he was diagnosed with a bone bruise, but Shayna Rubin of the San Francisco Chronicle writes that Schmitt is set to undergo an MRI once they arrive in Arizona for tonight’s game against the Diamondbacks. That could mean that more details on Schmitt’s injury and whether or not he’ll ultimately require a trip to the injured list will be available as soon as today. Christian Koss has been at third base with Brett Wisely at second while Schmitt has been on the mend so far, though a trip to the IL would mean a tough loss for the Giants’ lineup as Schmitt has slashed .276/.360/.439 in 34 games this year.
White Sox Place Luis Robert Jr. On 10-Day Injured List
The White Sox announced this afternoon that they’ve placed outfielder Luis Robert Jr. on the 10-day injured list with a left hamstring strain. The move is retroactive to June 26. Chicago will make a corresponding roster move prior to Tuesday’s game against the Dodgers, but will have just 25 players available for this afternoon’s game against the Giants.
The fact that Robert needs an IL stint is hardly a surprise given that he’s missed each of the club’s last three games, but (as noted by Vinnie Duber of the Chicago Sun Times) the timing of the move is a bit unusual. Robert was participating in light baseball activities before today’s game against the Giants, and he was expected to be evaluated further on Monday in order to determine whether or not an IL stint would be necessary. Perhaps Robert’s pregame activities today made it clear to the Sox that a trip to the shelf would be needed. It’s also worth noting that IL stints can be backdated a maximum of three days, so any time spent waiting after today would’ve effectively lengthened the minimum amount of time that Chicago would be without their outfielder.
The White Sox are surely hoping this will be a minimum stint or close to it. The possibility for a Robert trade has been a major topic of the rumor mill for years now, and after the club declined to trade him at various other points throughout their rebuild for fear of selling low on their mercurial and oft-injured star, his value may now be at its lowest point ever.
Robert has hit just .185/.270/.313 across 73 games this year. While he’s swiped 23 bases and is walking at a career-high 10.2% clip, he’s striking out more than 30% of the time and has the worst power numbers of his career. Even his once-elite center field defense isn’t holding up quite as well as it has in previous years. While his +3 Outs Above Average is certainly a solid number, it’s a far cry from the +13 OAA Robert posted back in 2023.
Between Robert’s declining offense and high salary, it could be difficult for the White Sox to find takers on the outfielder this summer. Perhaps that’s why the Sox are reportedly willing to include cash alongside Robert in order to facilitate getting a deal done. Robert is due around $7.5MM for the remainder of this season, but if the White Sox were willing to pay a significant amount of that down it might be easier for them to work out a trade.
After all, Robert’s offensive potential is still immense even amid his recent stretch of injuries and ineffectiveness, and even if he doesn’t reach that ceiling adding a plus defensive center fielder with speed to the lineup could be valuable for a team like the Guardians or Braves that has struggled to find production in center field this year. Robert is also still hitting a robust .268/.406/.464 against left-handed pitching this year, so perhaps a team like the Rangers or Giants that struggles against southpaws could have interest in bringing him into the fold as well.
All of this, of course, will hinge on Robert returning in relatively short order with enough time to prove himself reasonably healthy and effective before the trade deadline. Even mild hamstring strains can often require at least a couple of weeks of recovery, and if Robert isn’t ready to go by the time the White Sox come back from the All-Star break that could leave the club in a bit of a bind as they try to get what they can for the former All-Star. In the meantime, they’ll continue turning to Michael A. Taylor to cover center field while Robert recovers.
AL Central Notes: Arias, Carpenter, Cannon
Guardians shortstop Gabriel Arias had to be carted off the field with a left ankle sprain during today’s 7-0 loss to the Cardinals. In the third inning, Arias jammed his left foot while sliding to try and gather a Masyn Winn grounder that went for a single, and Arias needed immediate treatment from the club’s training staff in the aftermath. Cleveland manager Stephen Vogt told MLB.com’s Tim Stebbins and other reporters that Arias will undergo an MRI tomorrow, though the good news is that initial x-rays were negative.
More will be known about Arias’ status tomorrow, but it seems like a placement on the 10-day injured list is inevitable prior to the Guardians’ next game on Tuesday. Now in his fourth MLB season, Arias began 2025 in a second base timeshare with Daniel Schneemann, and then assumed starting shortstop duties in mid-May. Arias has +3 Outs Above Average and +3 Defensive Runs Saved over 424 1/3 innings at short this year, helping the Guards with his glove even if he is hitting only .231/.293/.369 over 281 plate appearances. As Stebbins notes, former starting shortstop Brayan Rocchio will probably be called up from Triple-A to handle shortstop in Arias’ absence.
Here’s some more from around the AL Central…
- Speaking of MRIs, Kerry Carpenter will also receive a scan tomorrow after he had to make an early exit from the Tigers’ 3-0 win over the Twins tonight. Carpenter was removed from the game with right hamstring discomfort after hitting a triple in the fifth inning, though he told reporters (including MLive.com’s Evan Woodbery) that his hamstring started to act up earlier in the game when he was playing right field. Detroit doesn’t play Monday so Carpenter will have a built-in day off to heal up, though a trip to the injured list might be a wise idea since Carpenter has been dealing with hamstring soreness for much of the season. Carpenter has a 116 wRC+ and 16 home runs over 280 PA, but his .257/.285/.494 slash line reveals a severe dropoff in his on-base numbers, as Carpenter’s 2.5% walk rate is among the lowest in baseball.
- The White Sox activated Jonathan Cannon from the 15-day injured list today, and the right-hander allowed a run on three hits and three walks (with four strikeouts) over three innings of a start in Chicago’s 5-2 over the Giants today. Cannon missed just short of four weeks dealing with a lower back strain, and he now has a 4.59 ERA over 13 appearances (11 starts) and 66 2/3 innings this season. A third-round pick for the Sox in the 2022 draft, Cannon made his Major League in 2024 and figures to be part of Chicago’s rotation for the rest of the season as the rebuilding White Sox figure out their future rotation. Right-hander Wikelman Gonzalez was optioned to Triple-A in the corresponding move for Cannon’s activation.
Twins Designate Jonah Bride For Assignment
Following the Twins’ 3-0 loss to the Tigers tonight, Minnesota announced that infielder Jonah Bride has been designated for assignment. No corresponding move has been made yet, but several members of the Twins beat speculated that Royce Lewis will be activated from the 10-day injured list prior to the team’s next game on Tuesday in Miami.
By coincidence, Bride came to the Twins from Miami in a trade back in April. This is the third time Bride has been designated in his career, and the previous two DFAs resulted in trades — from the A’s to the Marlins in February 2024, and then the swap that brought Bride to the Twin Cities.
Multiple injuries around the Twins’ infield created the need for Bride’s versatility, and he ended up appearing in 33 games with Minnesota mostly at third base, but with a few cameos as a first baseman, second baseman, and even four outings as a mop-up pitcher in blowouts. While Bride hit better with Minnesota than he did in Miami, he still has only a .170/.248/.188 slash line over 125 total plate appearances with both clubs in 2025.
A veteran of four big league seasons, Bride seemed to have a bit of a breakout with the Marlins in 2024, hitting .276/.357/.461 over 272 PA. It could be that rebuilding Miami never saw the 29-year-old Bride as more than a stopgap, however, and Bride’s lack of minor league options also reduced his flexibility in terms of roster shuffles.
That out-of-options status is why the Marlins and now the Twins have had to designate Bride and expose him to waivers before attempting to send him to the minors and outright him off their 40-man rosters. Bride doesn’t have a past outright on his record or the necessary MLB service time to reject an outright assignment, should he clear waivers this time and the Twins move him to Triple-A.
