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John Brebbia Elects Free Agency

By Darragh McDonald | September 11, 2025 at 9:30am CDT

Right-hander John Brebbia elected free agency rather than accept an outright assignment to Triple-A Gwinnett, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. That indicates he cleared waivers after being designated for assignment by the Braves earlier this week.

Brebbia, 35, is undeniably having a bad season. He has tossed 23 1/3 innings between Detroit and Atlanta, allowing 7.71 earned runs per nine. His 22.6% strikeout rate is close to average but his 10.4% walk rate is a bit high. It’s surely not quite as bad as the ERA would indicate. His .338 batting average on balls in play and 56.8% strand rate are both to the unfortunate side. His 5.76 FIP and 4.21 SIERA aren’t amazing figures but they do suggest that the ERA isn’t a perfect reflection of his work this year.

Regardless, he hasn’t been able to stick on a roster for long. The Tigers signed him to a one-year, $2.75MM deal in the offseason. He wasn’t released until mid-June but he also missed close to a month due to a right triceps strain. Atlanta scooped him up on a minor league deal after Detroit let him go. He was back in the majors in late August but lasted barely a week on Atlanta’s roster.

Players with at least five years of service time have the right to reject outright assignments and keep their salary commitments in place. Brebbia is well over that line and has exercised his right. Since the Tigers released him, they are on the hook for the majority of what remains to be paid out of his salary. Any other club could sign Brebbia and would only have to pay him the prorated portion of the league minimum for any time spent on the roster.

As mentioned, he has not been in good form this year but the track record is decent. He came into this year with 355 big league innings, a 3.80 ERA, 25.9% strikeout rate and 7.3% walk rate. This year’s major league results haven’t been at that level but he showed potential on the farm. Between signing that minor league deal with Atlanta and getting selected to the majors, he tossed 19 Triple-A innings with a 1.89 ERA, 26.9% strikeout rate and 3.8% walk rate.

It’s possible there are clubs who can see past this year’s struggles in the majors, though there’s still limited short-term appeal. Though Brebbia is cheap and has a good résumé, the regular season has barely two weeks remaining and he wouldn’t be postseason eligible for any club he signs with now. Perhaps he will latch on somewhere for the next few weeks but it’s also possible he goes into offseason mode a bit early.

Photo courtesy of Junfu Han, Imagn Images

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Atlanta Braves Transactions John Brebbia

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The Opener: Gore, Detmers, Mets

By Darragh McDonald | September 11, 2025 at 8:31am CDT

Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Gore to return to Nats

The Nationals placed left-hander MacKenzie Gore on the injured list a couple of weeks ago due to inflammation in his throwing shoulder. Thankfully, he’s coming back after a minimal stint and will start today’s game. Reliever Orlando Ribalta has been optioned as the corresponding move for Gore, per Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com. The Nats aren’t playing for much at this part of the schedule but it’s nice for the club and for Gore that he’s getting back on the mound before the winter kicks in. That will at least provide some assurance that nothing is lingering into the offseason. Gore is a speculative trade candidate this winter since he’s down to two remaining years of club control and the Nats don’t seem close to contending. His health is therefore of interest to other clubs around the league as well.

2. Detmers injured?

Angels lefty Reid Detmers departed yesterday’s game with an apparent injury. Per Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register, the southpaw said afterwards that he wasn’t in pain but his arm felt “dead” on the outside of his elbow. He’s getting an MRI today. Detmers is having a really good season out of the bullpen. The Halos will have to decide this winter whether to keep him in a relief role or stretch him back out as a starter next year. Perhaps the outcome of this MRI will play a role in that decision.

3. Mets sliding

As of a few weeks ago, it looked like the National League playoff race would be a real snooze. Going into the day on September 3rd, the Mets had the final Wild Card spot. The Reds and the Giants were each five games back. Fast forward to today and the Mets still have that final playoff spot but the situation is far less cozy. They have lost five in a row, which has shrunk their lead over the Reds and Giants to just two games, with the Diamondbacks and Cardinals also in the mix. It doesn’t get easier from here, as the Mets take on Jesús Luzardo and the Phillies today. The subsequent six games are also against tough teams, as the Mets host the Rangers and Padres for three each.

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The Opener

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Read The Transcript Of Nicklaus Gaut’s Fantasy Baseball Chat

By Nicklaus Gaut | September 11, 2025 at 8:01am CDT

Nicklaus Gaut will be talking fantasy baseball with Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers today at 11 am Central time. Get your question in early or participate in the live event at the link below!

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Anthony Rizzo Retires

By Steve Adams and Darragh McDonald | September 10, 2025 at 11:59pm CDT

The Cubs have announced that Anthony Rizzo will retire as a Cub and will be honored this Saturday at Wrigley Field as the club hosts the Rays. He will also serve as an ambassador for the organization. Jesse Rogers of ESPN was among those to relay the news.

Rizzo, now 36, was part of a few different organizations in his career but will always be primarily known as a Cub. He spent the bulk of his career, including essentially all of his prime, in Chicago. That stretch saw him emerge as a core piece as the team became a regular contender in the last half of the previous decade. The highlight came in 2016, when the Cubs finally won the World Series, breaking a 108-year drought.

There was talk of a potential dynasty on Chicago’s north side after that year, as that young core of Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Willson Contreras and Jorge Soler was controllable, affordable and formidable. The top of the rotation appeared set for years, with Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta and Kyle Hendricks all squarely in their primes and signed/controlled long-term. The Cubs indeed were competitive on a yearly basis for the remainder of the decade, but they fell to the Dodgers in the 2017 NLCS and haven’t advanced beyond the Wild Card round of postseason play since.

Before that legendary run, Rizzo had to pass through a few other places first. He was drafted by the Red Sox out of high school back in 2007. After a few years in Boston’s minor league system, he was flipped to the Padres as one of the players in the December 2010 deal that sent Adrián González to the Sox.

Rizzo got to make his big league debut with the Friars in 2011 but didn’t hit the ground running. He stepped to the plate 153 times over 49 games but struck out 30.1% of the time and produced a .141/.281/.242 line.

Going into 2012, the Padres decided to go in a different direction. They sent Mat Latos to the Reds for four players, one of whom was Yonder Alonso. With Alonso set to cover first base in San Diego, they then sent Rizzo and right-hander Zach Cates to the Cubs for righty Andrew Cashner and outfielder Kyung-Min Na.

That gambit clearly didn’t pan out for  San Diego. While Cashner had some modest success with the Padres, Alonso never found his power stroke at Petco Park and wound up delivering average offense over parts of four seasons. Yasmani Grandal, also acquired in that swap, struggled in San Diego before being sent to the Dodgers as part of the Matt Kemp trade.

Meanwhile, as all that played out, Rizzo broke out as one of the top first basemen in Major League Baseball. In parts of 10 seasons with the Cubs from 2012-21, Rizzo batted a combined .272/.372/.489 with 242 home runs. He made three All-Star teams, won four Gold Gloves, won a Silver Slugger and garnered MVP votes in five consecutive seasons — including a pair of consecutive fourth-place finishes in 2015-16, when he posted a combined .285/.386/.528 batting line (145 wRC+) and belted 63 home runs (31 in ’15, 32 in ’16). Rizzo struggled in the 2016 NLDS but erupted in both the NLCS and World Series, belting three homers and five doubles with an OPS north of 1.000 between those two series.

As that Cubs core continued to stall out over the years, however, the front office eventually determined there was a need for change. Rizzo, Bryant and Baez were all traded in the summer of 2021 — Baez to the Mets, Bryant to the Giants and Rizzo to the Yankees. Rizzo hit well for the Yankees down the stretch and stepped into a key leadership role, all of which convinced the team to re-sign him to a two-year deal with an option for a third season.

Rizzo went on to spend the final three full seasons of his career in the Bronx, hitting well in 2022 before slipping to about average in 2023 and struggling through injuries in 2024. His time in New York wasn’t nearly as productive, but he logged an overall .234/.326/.409 line as a Yankee and popped 32 home runs in his first full season in pinstripes.

All told, Rizzo’s excellent career will wrap up with a lifetime .261/.361/.467 batting line. He hit 303 home runs in the majors, scored 922 runs, plated 965 runs and even swiped 72 bases. Rizzo is one of just 164 players in major league history to reach 300 career home runs. His 338 doubles rank 352nd all-time, tied with Brady Anderson, Matt Williams, Robin Ventura and the aforementioned Kemp.

Rizzo also tallied 241 postseason plate appearances, and while his .225/.328/.397 line doesn’t stand up to his regular-season excellence, that’s skewed by a brutal showing in the 2015 playoffs. Starting with that NLCS breakout in ’16, Rizzo hit .260/.367/.455 in his final 180 turns at the plate in the playoffs.

Through an early-career extension with the Cubs and a free-agent deal to re-sign with the Yankees in the 2021-22 offseason, Rizzo earned more than $127MM in salary over parts of 14 seasons. FanGraphs valued his career at 35.9 wins above replacement, while Baseball-Reference is even more bullish at 40.4 WAR. Rizzo isn’t likely to be Cooperstown-bound, but he’ll be remembered as a cornerstone piece in an iconic era of Cubs franchise lore and a solid veteran pickup who helped drive some competitive Yankees clubs. Best wishes to Rizzo and his family in whatever the next chapter holds.

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Chicago Cubs New York Yankees Newsstand San Diego Padres Anthony Rizzo Retirement

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Marlins Notes: Stowers, Norby, Pauley, Myers

By Nick Deeds | September 10, 2025 at 11:25pm CDT

It’s been nearly a month since Marlins outfielder Kyle Stowers was sidelined by side strain, and he actually began a rehab assignment on September 5 at the Triple-A level. Unfortunately, that September 5 game remains his most recent appearance after he was sidelined by a right oblique strain. According to Kevin Barral of Fish On First, manager Clayton McCullough relayed to reporters yesterday that he isn’t “exactly sure” how long Stowers will be shut down for, and that a clear timetable might not be available until after Stowers has had a few more days of downtime.

With so few days left in the regular season and the Marlins an insurmountable nine games back in the Wild Card race, there appears to be a real chance that Stowers’s 2025 season has come to a close. McCullough acknowledged as much yesterday, telling reporters (including Barral) that “we know where we’re at in the calendar.” If Stowers’s first full season as a Marlin is in fact over, it’s still hard to call it anything other than a massive success. The 27-year-old emerged as a core piece for Miami this year as he slashed .288/.368/.544 with 25 homers, 21 doubles, and 3 triples across 117 games. It was enough to earn Stowers an All-Star nod, and he’s sure to be a fixture of the club’s outfield mix next year as well.

Turning away from Stowers, the Marlins provided plenty of updates (as relayed by MLB.com) about other injured hitters today. Infielder Graham Pauley began a rehab assignment at Triple-A today as he recovers from an oblique strain suffered last month. Tomorrow, meanwhile, will see both infielder Connor Norby and outfielder Dane Myers begin rehab assignments. Norby was sidelined by a quad strain just a few days ago, while Myers has been out of commission since late August due to an oblique strain of his own.

Of that trio, Pauley is having the best season at the plate. That’s not saying very much, as the left-handed utility man is slashing .229/.310/.371 in 159 plate appearances across 54 games for the big league Marlins this year. Norby, meanwhile, has posted only slightly weaker numbers in more of a regular role. He’s slashed .247/.298/.373 in 295 trips to the plate this year while battling injuries, including a hamate fracture that required surgery back in July. He had looked a lot better after returning from that surgery, but his burgeoning hot streak was cut short at just five games by his aforementioned quad ailment. As for Myers, the 29-year-old has hit just .233/.292/.325 in 99 games this year, but he has swiped 17 bases and played strong defense in center field.

Assuming none of them face setbacks like Stowers has, all three should be expected to return before the end of the year. Maximo Acosta, Xavier Edwards, and Javier Sanoja have mixed and matched at second and third base while Pauley and Norby have been out, with Otto Lopez at shortstop. That quartet will likely be forced to get the majority of their playing time up the middle as Pauley and Norby seem poised to reclaim their timeshare at the hot corner. Myers, meanwhile, has been overtaken on the depth chart by Jakob Marsee in center field but could still see some use off the bench or in the outfield corners.

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Miami Marlins Notes Connor Norby Dane Myers Graham Pauley Kyle Stowers

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Rays Notes: Ownership, Pepiot, Aranda

By Nick Deeds | September 10, 2025 at 10:01pm CDT

The Rays are set to change hands any day now, as current owner Stuart Sternberg has agreed to a sell the franchise to a group led by Patrick Zalupski in a deal that’s expected to be finalized at some point this month. Since the announcement of that deal back in July, additional details about the deal have trickled out. One such detail is that Sternberg and other current members of his ownership group will retain a stake in the Rays for the time being after the sale.

Another emerged today when Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reported that Rick Workman has joined Zalupski’s prospective ownership group. Topkin writes that Workman’s move to purchase a stake in the Rays is both a significant shock and a major blow to the Orlando Dreamers group, which is committed to luring an expansion franchise to Orlando. Topkin suggests that Workman was viewed as an “anchor” investor for the group’s efforts to bring MLB to the city who would have been a candidate to serve as the controlling partner of a hypothetical Orlando MLB franchise. John Morgan, the group’s second-largest investor, has also departed the effort now that it appears likely that the Rays will remain in Tampa.

According to a statement from MLB Hall of Famer Barry Larkin, who serves as an MLB ambassador for the Dreamers, the organization was “surprised” when Workman conveyed that he plans to invest in the Rays, but emphasized that Workman “did not in any way suggest concerns” regarding the Dreamers initiative. Dreamers co-founder Jim Schnorf goes on to suggest that the 70-year-old Workman may have had a change of heart about waiting for the lengthy process of getting a team to Orlando, which would likely take years now that the Rays figure to stay in Tampa, and instead chose the more immediate option of joining Zalupski’s group.

Between the loss of multiple major investors and the likelihood that the Rays remain in Tampa, it’s becoming harder to imagine a team coming to Orlando any time soon. With that said, Schnorf noted that there are “multiple” other candidates to serve as control person of a hypothetical Dreamers franchise and that the initiative has no shortage of funding.

“No competing city can come close to matching our attributes in regards to stadium location, market size, population growth, tourism numbers, tourist development taxes, and strength and growth of the local economy,” Schnorf said. “Orlando remains the only fully-ready solution for any MLB situation in need, whether via relocation of an existing franchise, or one of the planned expansion slots.”

Turning to on-the-field news, Rays right-hander Ryan Pepiot was scratched from his scheduled start today with what the club referred to as “general fatigue.” Pepiot, 28, has thrown 163 innings across 29 starts this year. That’s roughly 30 innings more than his previous career high, which was set last year and was itself 30 innings more than his career high before that. With the righty in uncharted territory innings-wise and Tampa’s playoff hopes all but scuttled, it might seem reasonable to expect Pepiot to sit the rest of the season out. That’s not necessarily the case, however, as MLB.com’s Joey Pollizze relays that Pepiot told reporters he expects to pitch again this year. The Rays went with a bullpen game to fill Pepiot’s spot in the rotation today, with Ian Seymour, Shane Baz, Drew Rasmussen, and Adrian Houser set to go the next four days, so the club won’t have to make a decision on Pepiot until their September 15 game against Toronto.

Turning to the lineup, Topkin relays that (according to manager Kevin Cash) first baseman Jonathan Aranda went for a checkup today as he nurses the fractured wrist that sent him to the injured list on August 1. Aranda is progressing well, according to Cash, and has already begun hitting off a tee and playing catch as he starts to rehab his ailing wrist. It’s still not clear if Aranda will have time to return before the end of the season, but the update is nonetheless encouraging about his ability to put together a normal offseason and enter Spring Training in a strong position for 2026. The 27-year-old Aranda enjoyed a breakout season at this dish this year and slashed .316/.394/.478 across 103 games while splitting time between first base and DH. It was a strong enough performance to earn Aranda the first All-Star nod of his career, and he figures to be a major contributor to the Rays for years to come given that he won’t be eligible for arbitration until the 2027 season.

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Notes Tampa Bay Rays Jonathan Aranda Ryan Pepiot

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Xander Bogaerts Cleared To Resume Baseball Activities

By Nick Deeds | September 10, 2025 at 8:37pm CDT

Xander Bogaerts has been cleared for baseball activity and has begun his rehab process, according to Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union Tribune. Bogaerts has been sidelined since August 29 after he suffered a fractured foot after fouling a ball of his foot a few days earlier.

Bogaerts, 33 in October, was in the midst of an up-and-down season with the Padres prior to his injury. After a down season last year, Bogaerts struggled through the first two-plus months of the year, and on June 17 saw his slash line drop to a paltry .227/.304/.311 through 286 plate appearances. Between that and his rough 2024 campaign, many around the game were starting to worry for the Padres’ ability to get much of anything out of the 11-year contract they signed him to prior to the 2023 campaign. Fortunately, he’s looked more like his old self since then, and has hit .304/.360/.473 with 24 extra-base hits and a 16.1% strikeout rate in his last 248 plate appearances.

That’s slightly better than his career slash line of .288/.350/.446, and offered plenty of optimism regarding Bogaerts’s ability to play up to his career norms moving forward. He even made real strides defensively at shortstop, posting a +7 Outs Above Average despite historically being viewed as a lackluster defender. Bogaerts’s resurgence provided plenty of optimism for the Padres’ ability to compete with the Dodgers down the stretch and into the postseason this year, but last month’s foot injury seemed to put all of that to a halt.

From the very start of the veteran’s recovery process, Padres brass have indicated they expected Bogaerts to be able to contribute in the postseason this year. The implication there, of course, was that the remainder regular season was more or less off the table for the veteran. For Bogaerts to be resuming baseball activities this quickly suggests some reason for optimism that he’ll be able to return, if not by the final game of the regular season, then in time for the Wild Card Series, where the Padres figure to face off against one of the Cubs, or Mets barring a surprise change in seeding. If the regular season ended today, San Diego would face Chicago in a three-game set at Wrigley Field.

Of course, it should be noted that sort of timeline would require Bogaerts to continue rehabbing at a fairly aggressive pace without suffering any setbacks. While adding Bogaerts back to the middle of a lineup that has relied on Jose Iglesias and his 66 wRC+ to be the primary answer at shortstop in his absence would be a huge boost for the Padres, they’re still not exactly hurting for offensive contributors after bringing in both Ramon Laureano and Ryan O’Hearn at this year’s trade deadline. Those additions have been enough to make San Diego the fifth-best offensive in the NL since the deadline, which should be enough to make them a formidable opponent given their dominant bullpen led by Mason Miller and Robert Suarez as well as a rotation that figures to feature Michael King, Nick Pivetta, and Dylan Cease.

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San Diego Padres Xander Bogaerts

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Luis Robert Jr. “Running Out Of Time” To Return In 2025

By Nick Deeds | September 10, 2025 at 7:02pm CDT

The White Sox haven’t officially declared center fielder Luis Robert Jr. out for the remainder of the season, but it seems that a return to the field is in doubt. Manager Will Venable told reporters (including James Fegan of Sox Machine) that Robert is “probably running out of time” to return to the field before the end of the season, as the early days of his recovery process haven’t gone well enough to create much optimism about a quick return to action.

Robert, 28, suffered a grade 2 hamstring strain in late August and has been sidelined ever since. The mercurial center fielder is just two years removed from an All-Star appearance amid a dominant five-win season, but his career has been marred with injuries and inconsistency. After playing in just 166 total games between the 2021 and ’22 campaigns, Robert has slumped badly in each of the last two seasons while battling more injuries.

In 210 games since the start of 2024, he’s hit just .223/.288/.372 with a wRC+ of 83. While he’s stolen an impressive 56 bases in that time, including 33 this year, he’s struck out at a 29.6% clip without offering quite enough power or patience at the plate to justify those high strikeout rates. While he once earned a Gold Glove award for his excellent defense in center field, that aspect of his game has regressed considerably in recent years as well. He was worth just +1 OAA last year, and while that figure has rebounded to +7 in 2025 he’s been worth +0 DRS this year after posting a +1 the year prior.

Between Robert’s injuries, lower power production, lesser defense, and high strikeout rates, his value on the market has plummeted over the past two years. While the White Sox have resisted trading him even amid their rebuild as they’ve refused to part with him for less than what they view as his fair market value, other teams have begun to view Robert as a player on an underwater contract due to his flaws and inconsistency. When Robert remained in Chicago following this year’s trade deadline, many assumed that would mean he’d depart the White Sox without the club recouping anything at all for him, seeing as this is the final guaranteed year of his contract.

That may not prove to be the case, however, as the White Sox maintain that they intend to pick up his $20MM club option for the 2026 season. That’s not an entirely unreasonable decision given Robert’s past successes and his .293/.349/.459 slash line since the start of July, but that sample makes up just 37 games and his latest injury only serves as a reminder of how unreliable his presence in the lineup has been for Chicago in recent years. Chicago will presumably be open to moving Robert once again this offseason, assuming they do pick up his option but, unless they have a change of heart about their strategy when shopping him or the franchise finds a way to compete next year, it seems likely that they’ll enter the 2026 season banking on a big first half from Robert in order to maximize his trade value at next year’s trade deadline.

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Chicago White Sox Luis Robert

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Dodgers Activate Tommy Edman From Injured List

By Nick Deeds | September 10, 2025 at 6:22pm CDT

6:22pm: Manager Dave Roberts tells reporters (including Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times) this afternoon that Edman, who is in center field today, may be on the grass on a regular basis going forward against left-handed pitching. He added that Edman could also see time at second base depending on how he looks running full-speed following his ankle injury.

5:39pm: Dodgers utility man Tommy Edman is being activated from the injured list today, the club announced today. Rookie center fielder Justin Dean was optioned to Triple-A in the corresponding move to make room for Edman on the roster.

Edman, 30, joined the Dodgers in a three-team trade with the White Sox and Cardinals last year. In 123 regular season games since then, Edman has slashed .231/.285/.403 with 18 homers, nine steals, and a 17.9% strikeout rate in 485 plate appearances. That’s good for only a wRC+ of 90, although it’s worth noting that Edman hit .328/.354/.508 during the Dodgers’ World Series run last year and even earned NLCS MVP honors for his work against the Mets.

The switch-hitter was signed to an extension during the offseason that guaranteed him $74MM over five seasons. That might seem like a hefty price to pay for a player who is typically below average offensively, but Edman makes up for his less than impactful bat by being a Gold Glove caliber defender capable of playing virtually any position on the diamond. He’s primarily played second base and shortstop throughout his career, but also has more than 600 innings of work both in center field and at third base over the course of his career.

After splitting time fairly evenly between shortstop and center field last year, Edman has mostly played second base with semi-regular reps in center and at the hot corner during the 2025 campaign. That’s when he hasn’t been on the injured list, as the Dodgers have needed to get through much of the season without him on the roster due to a pair of ankle injuries. The most recent occurred in early August and has left him shelved for just over a month. Now that he’s healthy, he joins a Dodgers lineup that also recently saw Will Smith and Max Muncy some back from injuries of their own.

With both Edman and Muncy back in the fold to handle regular duties at second and third base, that could leave rookie Hyeseong Kim without a regular position in the lineup. The Dodgers have at times in recent weeks suggested that Kim could get looks in left field over struggling veteran Michael Conforto. Perhaps that will come to pass now that Edman has returned to bump Kim off the keystone, given his 78 wRC+ on the year and similarly mediocre performance in recent weeks. Regardless of what sort of domino effects Edman’s return from the injured list might have on the Dodgers’ lineup down the stretch, it can only be a good thing for Los Angeles to have a deeper cache of options from which to work as they look to stave off the Padres in the NL West and defend their 2024 World Series championship in October.

As for Dean, the 28-year-old rookie has appeared in 18 games with the Dodgers this year. That work has almost exclusively been as a pinch runner and defensive replacement, as Dean has just two MLB plate appearances to his name that saw him go 0-for-2 with one strikeout, though he is 1-for-1 on the basepaths in the majors. A 17th rounder plucked by the Braves organization during the 2018 draft, Dean has parts of four seasons at Triple-A under his belt where he’s slashed .233/.340/.350 with 57 steals in 69 attempts. He’ll head back to the minor leagues for the time being, but could still be an option for the Dodgers off the bench later this year if the need for a speedster arises.

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Los Angeles Dodgers Transactions Justin Dean Tommy Edman

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Astros Place Luis Garcia On IL Due To Elbow Discomfort

By Darragh McDonald | September 10, 2025 at 4:25pm CDT

The Astros have placed right-hander Luis Garcia on the 15-day injured list due to right elbow discomfort, per Chandler Rome of The Athletic. Fellow righty Nick Hernandez has been recalled as the corresponding move.

At this point, it’s unclear how severe this elbow issue is, but it’s an ominous development. Garcia just returned from an absence of more than two years related to that elbow. He had undergone Tommy John surgery in 2023. He tried to get back on the mound in 2024 but repeatedly hit setbacks, eventually missing that entire season. Here in 2025, he was on the IL until just over a week ago.

Garcia took the ball on September 1st against the Angels, his first big league game since May of 2023. That start went well, as he allowed three earned runs over six innings. He made a second start against the Blue Jays yesterday but his velocity was noticeably down. He averaged 91.4 miles per hour against the Angels. He was largely in the 93-94 mph range earlier in his career but that drop wasn’t necessarily a flag. Pitchers sometimes return before they are back to 100% strength and Garcia had spoken of his belief that more velocity was to come. Instead, his fastball velo dropped to 90.2 mph against Toronto. In the second inning, he summoned the training staff to the mound and was quickly removed from the game.

Time will tell if this is another minor setback or something more serious. The fact that the Astros have quickly placed him on the IL doesn’t bode well for the short term. Even a minimum stint would extend into the final days of the regular season schedule. An absence of three weeks or more would push into October. It’s entirely possible his season is done, though the club will presumably release more info at some point.

Obviously, a more extreme outcome would be awful. At this point, another major elbow surgery would put his 2026 season in jeopardy. He’s already lost most of the 2023-2025 seasons. Another lengthy surgery rehab would give him a stretch of four years with each season either being totally or partially lost.

Over the 2021 and 2022 seasons, Garcia tossed 312 2/3 innings with a 3.60 earned run average, 25.4% strikeout rate and 7.6% walk rate. He also made seven postseason appearances in that span, helping the club win the 2022 World Series. Since then, as mentioned, he has hardly been on the mound.

The absences have cut into his earning power. He first qualified for arbitration going into 2024 and earned $1.875MM that year. After missing that entire campaign, he agreed to the same salary for 2025. Next year would be his final arb year before he’s slated for free agency. Given his very limited workload this year, he should be in line for effectively the same salary again in 2026. That’s barely above the league minimum and a fine price for Houston if they think he can get healthy. Though if he’s slated for another long absence, he would become a clear non-tender candidate.

For the Astros, this adds to their injury pile for the stretch run. They have already lost Ronel Blanco, Hayden Wesneski and Brandon Walter to season-ending surgeries. Spencer Arrighetti is on the IL due to elbow inflammation and going for a second opinion. In the bullpen, Josh Hader, John Rooney, Kaleb Ort and Bennett Sousa are all on the IL. The position player group is without Isaac Paredes and others.

Despite all those injuries, the Astros are clinging to a narrow division lead. The still sit atop the American League West, but the Mariners are only one game back with the Rangers only 2.5 games behind. The Astros still have a very good shot at making the postseason but every new injury will make it more challenging to hang on.

Their rotation now consists of Hunter Brown, Framber Valdez, Jason Alexander and Cristian Javier. They have Lance McCullers Jr. and J.P. France in the bullpen and could put one of them in the rotation, though neither is having a great year. Colton Gordon is on the 40-man roster but was just optioned four days ago. He can’t be recalled until 15 days after that optioning unless directly replacing a player going on the IL. Non-roster options in Triple-A include Miguel Ullola, Ethan Pecko and Jose Fleury.

Photo courtesy of Erik Williams, Imagn Images

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Houston Astros Luis Garcia (Astros RHP) Nick Hernandez

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