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AL Central Notes: Indians, Santana, Twins, Park, Gordon

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In an excellent piece for Sports on Earth, MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince profiles the Indians’ “dream team” front office from the mid-1990s, which featured eight men that have now occupied (or currently occupy) the title of GM or president of baseball operations. John Hart was the Cleveland GM at the time, but the front office also included assistant GM Dan O’Dowd (who went on to become GM of the Rockies); director of player development Mark Shapiro (former GM and president of the Indians and now president of the Blue Jays); scouting director Josh Byrnes (former GM of the Padres and D-backs); advance scouts Ben Cherington and Paul DePodesta (former GMs of the Red Sox and Dodgers, respectively); assistant director of minor league operations Neal Huntington (current GM of the Pirates); and baseball operations assistant Chris Antonetti, who is of course the current president of baseball ops in Cleveland. Hart and O’Dowd spoke fondly of the group’s explorations of baseball philosophy, and Castrovince explains how O’Dowd and Shapiro wrote a 15-page whitepaper that was pitched to Hart detailing their models of extensions for arbitration-eligible players. While such extensions are commonplace now, the Indians pioneered such extensions in early to mid-90s, allowing them to retain their top talent and emerge as perennial contenders in the American League. Castrovince examines other statistical and technological trends of which the Indians were early adopters and looks at how each now-well-regarded executive got his foot in the door with the Indians.

Here’s more from the AL Central…

  • The addition of Mike Napoli to the Indians’ roster almost certainly means that Carlos Santana has gone from catcher to first baseman to DH (with a brief, ill-fated stop at third base along the way), writes Cleveland.com’s Zack Meisel. While there’s the possibility that focusing solely on offense could help Santana build his offense back up to its 2011-14 levels, Meisel also notes that the $12MM club option the team holds over Santana for the 2017 season is a steep amount for a club with an eight-figure payroll to pay a designated hitter. Meisel’s implication, of course, is that Santana’s future with the club is somewhat murky. Considering the raises Cleveland will owe Michael Brantley, Yan Gomes, Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco and Jason Kipnis on their guaranteed contracts and also the raises that will be owed to Cody Allen, Lonnie Chisenhall, Bryan Shaw, Trevor Bauer and Zach McAllister in arbitration, a crunch does appear to be coming.
  • Brewers left-hander Will Smith has some fans in the Twins’ front office, says 1500 ESPN’s Darren Wolfson in the first edition of his new podcast (Soundcloud link; Twins talk beginning around 19:30). Nationals right-hander Drew Storen also has some fans among Twins brass, though his projected $8.8MM salary (via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) could serve to curb the team’s interest. Wolfson also notes that the Twins remain interested in free agent southpaw Antonio Bastardo but still aren’t keen on his three-year, $15-18MM asking price. A Twins official told Wolfson recently that even if the Twins don’t make further moves this winter, they’re happy with what they have, though Wolfson notes that he does expect at least one more move out of the Twins.
  • Twins manager Paul Molitor tells MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger that he’s hopeful that Korean slugger Byung-ho Park will be ready to be his Opening Day designated hitter next season, though Molitor also recognizes that there will be some adjustment as Park transitions to a new league. Molitor notes that Park’s former KBO teammate, Jung Ho Kang, “looked beatable” when he saw him in Spring Training last season but had made enormous adjustments by the time the Twins played the Pirates in the summer. Molitor and the Twins feel that Park can make a similarly quick adjustment. “I think that our scouts understand bat speed, eye-to-hand coordination, pitch recognition abilities, even if velocities and breaking pitches are not Major League quality,” said Molitor in reference to Park’s impressive work in the KBO.
  • Alex Gordon’s desire to come back to the Royals “was a 10,” he told reporters at a press conference yesterday (as MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan writes). Gordon spoke about how appreciative he is of both ownership and the front office for bringing him back to the Royals, although GM Dayton Moore explained that Gordon was always the team’s top priority. “When we went around the table and talked to our scouts, they said, ’Get Alex Gordon,'” said Moore to the media. “”I talked to our analytical guys and they said, ’Get Alex Gordon.’ I talked to our coaching staff and it was, ’Get Alex Gordon.’ Talked to his teammates along the way and it was ’Get Gordo back.’ My momma didn’t raise no dummy. We had to get him back.” According to Moore, things began coming together on New Year’s Eve, and the final details were hammered out over the next few days prior to yesterday’s announcement.

Arbitration Breakdown: Josh Donaldson

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Over the next few weeks, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.

The reigning Most Valuable Player of the American League enters his second year of arbitration eligibility due for a healthy raise on the $4.3MM he earned in his award-winning season. Josh Donaldson hit .297 with 41 home runs and 123 runs batted in 711 plate appearances, with an All-Star appearance and a Silver Slugger Award to add to his MVP honors.

Josh Donaldson

It was the third baseman’s first year with the Blue Jays after a solid career in Oakland, and he certainly made a great impression on his new employers. Now, they will have to pay up in his second year of arbitration. Our model and several knowledgeable sources have confirmed that after the first year of arbitration eligibility, most players’ cases are treated as raises based almost exclusively on the previous year’s statistics. This helps explain why the model projects that Donaldson will receive a $7.7MM raise to a total of $12MM, which would be a record raise for a second-time eligible player.

The model’s projection of a record raise seems appropriate. The current record belongs to Chris Davis in 2014, who did not win an MVP Award when received a $7.05MM raise. Davis did out-homer Donaldson, 53 to 42, and had 138 RBIs — 15 more than Donaldson — as well. But, Donaldson had a higher average, .297 versus .286, and played a harder defensive position (third base versus first base) and is known for his excellent defense. While defensive performance usually does not matter much in arbitration cases (other than position played), I believe that Donaldson should be able to use his defense and his hardware to argue that he should have a bigger raise than Davis did– probably something in line with the $12MM projection, I would guess.

The last hitter to enter his second year of arbitration eligibility after winning an MVP Award was five years ago, when Josh Hamilton earned a $5.5MM raise. Hamilton had hit .359 with 32 home runs and 100 RBIs, but in only 571 plate appearances. Donaldson’s 140 extra trips to the plate with nine more home runs and 23 more runs knocked in should help him argue for a much larger raise than Hamilton received on the heels of his MVP season in 2010. Even if Donaldson cannot effectively argue that his raise should be larger than Davis’ due to the power gap, he should have less trouble arguing that he is deserving of a bigger raise than Hamilton received five years ago.

Few other players seem likely to make better arbitration cases for Donaldson than Hamilton and Davis. As a result, I think the case will likely come down to an argument about whether Donaldson should get something like a $6MM raise to top Hamilton by a decent margin, or whether Donaldson should get a $7.5MM raise to set a new record beyond Davis. It’s unlikely that Donaldson out-earned the $12MM salary I have projected for him, but I think it is more likely than not that he is close to this range. If he cannot argue that his case is stronger than Davis, though, he might end up around $10.3MM — a hefty raise, to be sure, but a fair margin shy of the current record increase that our model currently projects.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Download The Trade Rumors App Today

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If you enjoy this website on your smartphone or tablet, you’ve got to download our free Trade Rumors app!

Trade Rumors, available for iOS and Android, is the best way to consume our content on a mobile device.  Here’s what it delivers, all for free:

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Quick Hits: Buehrle, Rodney, Nationals, Rangers, White Sox, Uggla

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Free agent left-hander Mark Buehrle is not planning on playing in 2016 at this time, though the veteran isn’t yet prepared to announce his retirement from baseball, either, according to SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo (Twitter link). The soon-to-be 37-year-old’s future has been a debated topic in the past, as some reports indicated that he was planning to retire before Buehrle himself told ESPN Chicago’s Doug Padilla back in October that he’d yet to make a decision on the matter. Another report indicated that if Buehrle were to pitch in 2016, it’d most likely happen if St. Louis showed interest in the Missouri native. Buehrle’s 2015 season wasn’t as strong as his 2014 season, but he nonetheless recorded a solid 3.81 ERA across 198 2/3 innings. That final innings tally left him just four outs shy of recording his remarkable 15th consecutive season of 200+ innings.

A few more notes from around the league…

  • Cotillo also tweets that right-hander Fernando Rodney is in “active talks” with multiple clubs, noting that the Padres, Blue Jays, Diamondbacks and Cubs are all in the mix at this time. San Diego, Chicago and Toronto have previously been linked to Rodney, though Arizona would seem to represent a fairly new entrant into his market. Rodney had a dreadful season with the Mariners in 2015 but turned it around following a trade to the Cubs, yielding just one earned run in 12 innings with a 15-to-4 K/BB ratio down the stretch (Rodney did, however, also plunk three batters in his brief Cubs tenure).
  • We’ve heard about the Nationals’ interest in Gerardo Parra before, and James Wagner of the Washington Post writes that it’s still alive. GM Mike Rizzo was Arizona’s scouting director when the club signed Parra, and the Nats also tried to acquire him from the Brewers this summer, Wagner reminds. Wagner notes that Parra’s so-so OBP and declining defensive ratings make him a questionable fit in Washington, but the team’s goal remains adding some outfield depth to protect against injuries to Jayson Werth and uncertainty surrounding the talented but raw Michael A. Taylor. Wagner opines that from a purely speculative standpoint, Shane Victorino makes some sense for the Nationals as a player who can cover the outfield corners and play center in a pinch if need be.
  • Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram writes that Rangers fans shouldn’t expect to see Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes or Yovani Gallardo in a Rangers uniform next season, as the team doesn’t have the payroll capacity to add any of the three. A trade for Marcell Ozuna is also unlikely, per Wilson, though the Rangers do still hope to add some rotation depth before the offseason is up. GM Jon Daniels tells Wilson that there are still some affordable names on the open market that have piqued the Rangers’ interest. Wilson also notes that Colby Lewis’ physical — the final step before his reported one-year, $6MM contract becomes official — is slated for next Monday.
  • The White Sox aren’t in a rush to add a big-ticket outfielder to the mix, writes MLB.com’s Scott Merkin. The Sox “seem content to wait and ensure that any free-agent deal would fit their need and parameters,” he continues, writing that it’s likely that Upton and Cespedes will eventually be offered more years and dollars than the ChiSox care to place on the table.
  • Dan Uggla has spoken to three or four teams that are eyeing infield depth, Cotillo tweets. Uggla is set to turn 36 this March and is coming off a season in which he batted just .183/.298/.300 in 141 plate appearances with the Nationals, so any contract to which he agrees figures to be of the minor league variety.
  • Zach Buchanan of the Arizona Republic spoke to executives and scouts from each league to ask which NL West division rival has the better pitching staff heading into the 2016 season: the D-backs or the Giants. While the officials to whom Buchanan spoke seemed to agree that, in a vacuum, the D-backs made more impactful acquisitions this offseason (referring to Zack Greinke and Shelby Miller in comparison to Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija), when factoring in the cost of said acquisitions, there’s an argument to be made for the Giants’ side of the equation. Buchanan also polled officials on which club’s top three starters were more impressive, adding lefties Patrick Corbin and Madison Bumgarner to the mix, which generated mixed responses.

Brewers Sign Chris Carter

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9:10pm: Jon Heyman reports (via Twitter) that Carter can earn an additional $500K based on plate appearances, meaning his contract will max out at $3MM in 2016. That’s a lower baseline than the $4.175MM upon which his projected 2016 raise was based, meaning that even if Carter struggles similarly in terms of batting average this coming season, his projected price tag should come in south of this winter’s $5.6MM. And, if he does end up with a projection that sizable, it’ll likely be due to markedly increased performance, in which case the Brewers probably wouldn’t mind the salary bump.

6:32pm: The Brewers announced on Wednesday that they have signed slugging first baseman Chris Carter to a one-year contract. He’ll reportedly earn $2.5MM with the chance to add to that salary via performance incentives. Carter’s contract also contains incentives that can boost the value of his deal. The agreement will reunite the Sports Management Partners client with GM David Stearns, who served as assistant GM in the Astros’ front office before being named general manager in Milwaukee.

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“We are pleased to be able to add Chris to our organization,” said Stearns in a press release announcing the move. “Over the past three seasons, Chris has proven to be one of the most consistent power threats in the game. We believe that his skills and experiences will complement our team well and provide additional production to our lineup.”

Carter, 29, has spent the past three seasons in Houston, batting a combined .218/.312/.459 with 90 home runs while spending the majority of his time at first base and designated hitter. However, a .199/.307/.427 batting line, 32.8 percent strikeout rate, projected $5.6MM salary (via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) and the presence of rising prospects A.J. Reed and Tyler White led Houston to non-tender the slugger back on Dec. 2.

Presumably, Carter will become the Brewers’ primary first baseman, as the team has traded away incumbent first basemen Adam Lind and Jason Rogers over the past few weeks. While defense isn’t Carter’s strong point (-8 UZR/150, -14 DRS in 2064 career innings) and his strikeouts do yield a low batting average, Carter is one of baseball’s most powerful hitters. Over the past three seasons, his 90 home runs rank eighth in the Majors, and his .241 isolated power mark places him 11th among qualified batters. Of course, Carter’s 33.7 percent strikeout rate in that time also is the highest in all of baseball.

Carter was eligible for arbitration for the second time as a Super Two player this offseason at the time of his non-tender, meaning the Brewers will be able to control him for up to three seasons if he remains productive enough to justify the raises he’ll receive via the arbitration process.

Kristie Rieken of the Associated Press first reported the agreement and Carter’s guarantee (Twitter link).

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Action On Marlins’ Marcell Ozuna Picking Up

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8:28pm: The Rangers and Marlins have been discussing Ozuna on and off for about a month, but talks have never advanced very far, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (links to Twitter). Rosenthal notes that the Rangers are still looking to add pitching depth — Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram writes the same, calling an Ozuna swap unlikely — therefore making it difficult to part with Gonzalez in a deal. While Texas could theoretically sign another starter and then part with Gonzalez in an Ozuna trade, the team lacks the financial flexibility to increase payroll, Rosenthal hears, which would make a notable signing for the rotation improbable.

3:35pm: Talks have indeed involved Gonzalez and “perhaps another piece,” Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald tweets.

2:02pm: Ozuna’s market is “moving fast,” Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports tweets. Miami has spoken with “multiple clubs” about him, including one team located on the West Coast.

The team is “listening” but doesn’t feel compelled to reach a deal, MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro writes, adding that as many as 10 teams expressed interest in Ozuna back at the Winter Meetings in Nashville in early December. If the Marlins deal him away, they would utilize Christian Yelich in center and platoon Derek Dietrich with a right-handed hitter in left, Frisaro reports on Twitter.

1:27pm: The Rangers are holding trade discussions with the Marlins about center fielder Marcell Ozuna, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). But, he adds, Miami is still placing a hefty tag on the youngster and a deal between the sides “may be [a] longshot.”

It’s been quite some time since we’ve heard anything on Ozuna, who was a popular topic of discussion during the Winter Meetings. Last we checked in, it seemed that the Marlins could be more likely than ever to hold onto him, as trade partners were not inclined to meet the steep ask.

The 25-year-old emerged as a major trade topic after numerous reports suggested that he had fallen out of favor with Miami owner Jeffrey Loria. He struggled early last year, but raked in a brief Triple-A stint and bounced back nicely in the second half.

The Fish are said to be looking for a promising young starter in return. It’s not clear what names have come up in talks with Texas, but it’s certainly plausible to imagine players like Nick Martinez and Chi Chi Gonzalez being discussed. Of course, it’s also possible to imagine the involvement of some of the Rangers’ young pen arms — and any number of other assets — if Miami is willing to consider alternatives.

For the Rangers, center field isn’t exactly a strong need. After all, the team enjoyed a surprising campaign from Rule 5 pick Delino DeShields Jr. last year. But he’s hardly a sure thing, the lineup still trends left-handed, and Ozuna would add a youthful, high-upside component to the Texas outfield mix.

Arbitration Breakdown: Tyson Ross

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Over the next few weeks, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.

Tyson Ross enters his third year of arbitration eligibility coming off a very strong performance but a weak win-loss record which, while not indicative of his actual talent and performance, still holds weight in the arbitration process. Ross finished below .500 with a 10-12 record, although he had a 3.26 ERA in 196 innings and struck out 212 hitters. The strong performance combined with his poor record have given our model some trouble this year, and I believe that the $4.75MM raise it projects him to get to reach $10MM for 2016 is probably too high. However, I do still think that Ross is due for a large raise.

Tyson Ross

One of the benefits of using a quantitative model to project arbitration salaries is that it enables us to get reasonably accurate estimates for players with atypical numbers. Few pitchers with ERAs as low as Ross have had losing records, and fewer still have been held to only 10 wins. However, the model still had some trouble with Ross this year. So, let’s examine a few pitchers that stand out as reasonable statistical comparables but got raises less than Ross’ projected $4.75MM.

Last year, Jeff Samardzija had a losing record of 7-13 despite a fantastic 2.99 ERA in 219 2/3 innings, ultimately resulting in a $4.46MM raise. Although he had 10 fewer strikeouts overall than Ross and obviously had three fewer victories, his ERA and innings were much better, and I suspect it would be tough to argue that Ross should get a raise $300K larger than the one awarded to Samardzija. If those three victories loom important, it’s conceivable that Ross will in fact hit his projection, but other players suggest more downside is possible.

Two other recent pitchers had exactly 10 wins in their third year of arbitration eligibility and also had about as many innings. In 2012, Matt Garza went 10-10 with a 3.32 ERA 197 strikeouts in 198 innings. He received a $3.55MM raise. Although Ross had two more losses, his case looks similar otherwise. More recently, David Price in 2014 had a 10-8 record with a 3.33 ERA in 186 2/3 innings, but he only struck out 151 hitters. Price had generally similar numbers to Garza but with fewer strikeouts, resulting in a raise of $3.89MM. Price’s similar numbers and larger raise suggest that a panel would agree that the market has shifted, making the Garza result stale. As a result, Ross could argue that Price’s $3.89MM raise a couple of years ago should be a floor, considering Ross’ similar ERA and innings total but vastly superior strikeouts numbers.

Digging further yet, Justin Masterson could also be a plausible ceiling. His 14-10 record clearly topped Ross’ 10-12 record, while his 3.45 ERA was similar to Ross’ 3.26. Masterson had 193 innings and 195 strikeouts, which are not that much less than Ross’ 196 and 212. As a result, the extra wins could suggest Masterson’s $4.07MM raise might be a ceiling for Ross.

Putting these together, it seems clear that the range of potential raises for Ross is probably around $3.9MM to $4.45MM, which would put him between $9.15MM and $9.7MM in 2016. While this is not appreciably less than his $10MM salary projection, it does appear that guessing low on this is the safer bet.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Brewers Designate Josmil Pinto For Assignment

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The Brewers announced that they have designated catcher Josmil Pinto for assignment in order to clear a spot on the 40-man roster for first baseman Chris Carter, whose reported one-year, $2.5MM contract is now official (Twitter link).

This marks a continuation of a tumultuous offseason for the 26-year-old Pinto, who has gone from the Twins to the Padres to the Brewers by way of DFA this winter. If he’s claimed by another club or traded, Pinto will already join his fourth organization of the offseason.

The attributes that make Pinto desirable aren’t hard to see. The Venezuelan backstop possesses quite a bit of pop relative to other catchers around the league, having belted 11 homers in just 280 Major League plate appearances. Pinto is a .257/.339/.445 hitter in the Majors, though much of that production came in his initial September call-up in 2013, where a .440 BABIP served to bolster his overall batting line. Pinto also posted excellent minor league numbers in 2013 and again in 2014.

However, Pinto has always viewed as a poor defender behind the plate, so when his batted just .219/.315/.391 with the Twins in 2014 and struggled even more with the Twins in, his future with Minnesota was called into question. Beyond that, there are notable health concerns with Pinto, who will turn 27 this spring. His 2015 season was marred by concussions and poor performance at the Triple-A level, where he batted just .228/.304/.354 in 68 games.

Royals Designate Lane Adams For Assignment

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The Royals have designated outfielder Lane Adams for assignment in order to clear a spot on the 40-man roster for the newly re-signed Alex Gordon, tweets Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com.

Adams, who turned 26 in November, was selected by the Royals in the 13th round of the 2009 draft and made a brief Major League debut in 2014, tallying three plate appearances for the Royals. The fleet-footed center fielder reached Triple-A for the first time this past season, struggling through 37 games there on the heels of a strong Double-A campaign. Overall, the Oklahoma native batted a combined .281/.347/.445 with 16 homers and 31 stolen bases — his third consecutive season with 30 or more steals.

Last winter, Baseball America rated him 15th among Royals farmhands, calling him a plus-plus runner and a plus defender with a fringe-average arm and a bit of pull power. Ultimately BA pegged him as a fourth outfielder. Given his strong defensive chops, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see a club take a flier on Adams.

Ken Griffey Jr., Mike Piazza Elected To Hall Of Fame

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Cooperstown’s 2016 induction class has been decided, as Ken Griffey Jr. and Mike Piazza have been elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame by the Baseball Writers Association of America.

In his first year of eligibility, Griffey received a whopping 99.3% of the vote (437 of 440 ballots), surpassing Tom Seaver’s previous record of 98.84% (425 of 430) when the former Mets ace was inducted in 1992.  Piazza appeared on 365 ballots for a comfortable 83% total that easily surpassed the 75% threshold for induction, though the star catcher has had to wait a bit longer to get his Cooperstown due.  This was Piazza’s fourth year of eligibility, a wait that is generally attributed to a crowded ballot in recent years and, more scurrilously, unsubstantiated rumors that Piazza may have used PEDs during his playing career.

It’s fair to say that baseball fans and pundits have seen Griffey’s induction coming for three decades.  “Junior” was the first overall pick of the 1987 amateur draft and he quickly lived up to the talent promised by his high school superstardom and impressive family pedigree.  Griffey broke into the majors at age 19 and almost immediately developed into one of the game’s best players, winning his first Gold Glove (of 10 in his career) and making his first All-Star appearance (of 13) in 1990.

In his prime years with the Mariners, Griffey brought a combination of power and elite center field defense not seen since Willie Mays.  His obvious talent, youth and media-friendly persona made Griffey into quite possibly the “face of baseball” throughout the 1990’s — an entire generation of fans grew up not just watching Griffey on the field, but also playing his name-branded video games and seeing him in commercials and TV guest appearances.

Griffey finished with a .284/.370/.538 slash line over 11304 plate appearances with the Mariners, Reds and White Sox.  He’s one of the eight members of the 600-Homer club, and his 630 home runs ranks him sixth on the all-time list.  While these amazing numbers were already enough to make him a surefire Hall-of-Famer, it’s also worth noting that Griffey may have been even better had he not battled some significant injuries later in his career, particularly during his tenure with Cincinnati.

Griffey becomes the first player drafted first overall to reach the Hall of Fame, which makes it ironic that he’ll enter alongside Piazza, the most famous late-round star in MLB amateur draft history.  Piazza was so lightly regarded as a prospect that he was a 62nd-round pick for the Dodgers in 1988, only selected at all since Dodgers manager Tommy Lasorda did a favor to Piazza’s father, a personal friend.

From that humble start, Piazza blossomed into arguably the best-hitting catcher in baseball history.  Piazza’s 396 home runs as a catcher is a record for the position, and over his entire career, Piazza totaled 427 homers and a .308/.377/.545 slash line over 16 seasons largely spent with the Dodgers and Mets.  Piazza’s list of achievements include 12 All-Star appearances, 10 Silver Slugger Awards and the 1993 NL Rookie of the Year.

Falling a bit shy of enshrinement were Jeff Bagwell (71.6%), Tim Raines (69.8%) and Trevor Hoffman (67.3%). Full voting results can be viewed at the BBWAA’s website.

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