Deadline Rumors: Hellickson, Reds, Rangers, Aybar, Gibson, Twins
Here’s the latest on some notable players whose names have popped up in trade speculation…
- The Phillies are scouting the Marlins‘ rookie league affiliate for prospects in a possible Jeremy Hellickson trade, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reports (Twitter link). The two NL East rivals have been connected to Hellickson rumors for a few weeks now, as Miami is known to be searching for rotation help. Given the lack of premium talent within the Marlins’ farm system, Hellickson could be a more reasonable acquisition than other Marlins targets like Jake Odorizzi, Matt Moore or even Chris Sale. The Pirates, Red Sox and Orioles are among the teams also linked to Hellickson in trade rumors.
- The Rangers are exploring many trade options and have been linked to multiple teams, though they don’t appear to have had any “substantive talks” with the Reds, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News tweets. Texas has been linked to Jay Bruce, and the right fielder could be a fit with Shin-Soo Choo constantly battling injuries and Prince Fielder gone for the season, though Grant seems to imply that the Rangers’ interest in Bruce didn’t get too far. Anthony DeSclafani would certainly the attract the Rangers and other pitching-needy teams if Cincinnati made him available, though DeSclafani’s breakout year may have also made him into a building block for the rebuilding Reds.
- The Braves are “aggressively shopping” Erick Aybar and left-handed relievers, a rival executive tells Ken Rosenthal (Twitter link). Aybar would seem to have limited trade value given his horrible year at the plate, as his brief hot streak in June gave way to more struggles in July. Southpaws Hunter Cervenka and Ian Krol have generated some trade buzz already, and it’s possible Atlanta could be trying to sell high on Dario Alvarez. (UPDATE: Rosenthal’s tweet also listed Jeff Francoeur as a trade chip, but he has since issued a correction saying that the Braves aren’t shopping Francoeur and will only deal him if they get a big offer.)
- The Twins are in “listening mode — at best” on right-hander Kyle Gibson, a source on a contender tells Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press (Twitter links). The Twins “appear more focused” on trading Ervin Santana or Ricky Nolasco, which is no surprise given that the team would love to get some salary relief from either of those big contracts. Gibson has yet to truly live up to his former top prospect status, though he put up solid numbers in 2015 as a low-strikeout ground ball specialist. Gibson will become eligible for arbitration for the first time this winter, and he is under team control through 2019.
- Also from Berardino (Twitter links), he speculates that the Twins could try to position themselves as the proverbial “third team” in a three-team trade. The Twins have some prospect depth that could be offered to contenders short on quality minor leaguers (Berardino cites the Marlins, Tigers, Mets and Orioles here) to help facilitate some deals, with Minnesota receiving some players who could help them next season but who are also still in their pre-arbitration years.
Rockies To Promote David Dahl
The Rockies will call top outfield prospect David Dahl up to the majors tomorrow for the beginning of the team’s series with the Orioles, Nick Groke of the Denver Post reports. In a corresponding move, outfielder Brandon Barnes will be designated for assignment to create a roster spot.
Dahl was the 10th overall pick of the 2012 draft, but his path to the big leagues was slowed by a very serious injury in May 2015. A collision with a teammate in the outfield left Dahl with a concussion and lacerated spleen, and Dahl underwent a splenectomy to remove the damaged body part entirely so he could return to action in 2015, rather than undergo surgery to repair his spleen and face a longer layoff. It appears as though Dahl emerged from that scare relatively unscathed, as he has torn up Double-A and Triple-A pitching to the tune of a combined .314/.394/.569 line and 18 homers over a combined 400 plate appearances.
Entering the season, the 22-year-old Dahl scored impressive rankings on top-100 prospect rankings from Baseball Prospectus (who ranked Dahl 31st), Baseball America (39th), MLB.com (46th) and ESPN.com’s Keith Law (58th). The 2016 BA Prospect Handbook ranked Dahl as the second-best prospect in Colorado’s system, describing him as having “the potential to be a five-tool center fielder.” Dahl already possesses speed, a strong throwing arm and defensive ability in center, and he has quick hands and gap power at the plate, with some scouts believing he has the ability to hit 20-25 homers.
With the Rockies falling well behind in the NL West, it makes sense that Dahl would get an extended look. The timing of the promotion means that Dahl wouldn’t be able to earn enough service time to gain Super Two status if he stays on the MLB roster for the rest of the season, so if he isn’t demoted, the Rockies are on track to control Dahl through the 2022 season. As Groke notes, now that Dahl is in the mix for playing time, it will only intensify rumors that Colorado could create room in the outfield by trading Carlos Gonzalez or Charlie Blackmon. For now, Dahl looks to take over in left field while Gerardo Parra is still on the DL. As Jason Martinez recently wrote in his “Knocking Down The Door” feature for MLBTR, Dahl’s importance to the Rockies’ future means that Parra should probably “be a very expensive fourth outfielder” unless a trade happens.
Barnes, 30, came to Colorado as part of the Dexter Fowler trade package from Houston in December 2013. Barnes has hit .249/.295/.376 over 703 PA with the Rockies while getting extensive time at all three outfield positions.
Rangers Interested In Edinson Volquez
The Rangers are interested in a reunion with Royals right-hander Edinson Volquez, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports. Volquez actually started against Texas today, holding the Rangers to one run over six innings to earn a no-decision in what ended up as a 2-1 Rangers victory. As Grant noted, “the entire Rangers inner circle of front office personnel was on hand to see” Volquez pitch.
Texas been looking far and wide for rotation upgrades before the deadline, including checking in on such major names as Chris Sale and the Rays’ collection of starters (Chris Archer, Jake Odorizzi, Matt Moore and Drew Smyly). Those pitchers, however, are all controllable and thus have high asking prices. Between the high prospect cost and the injuries plaguing the Texas rotation, GM Jon Daniels admitted that his team may shift its mindset to consider short-term additions.
“I think that’s the only thing that’s really changed is that I was hoping we wouldn’t have to consider rentals,” Daniels said. “I think if we had a healthy rotation, we’d only be looking at guys who are controllable past this season. [Rentals] would not be our preference, but we’ve got to be open.”
Volquez would fit the bill as such a rental pitcher. Volquez is in the final year of a two-year contract that paid him $17MM in guaranteed salary, plus there is a $10MM mutual option on his services for 2017 that can be bought out for $3MM. (Incidentally, Volquez also gets a $500K assignment bonus in the event of a trade.) He would obviously come at a much lower cost than Sale or any of the Rays pitchers, though the Royals are still undecided about selling at the deadline or making another postseason push. Grant reports that at least 20 teams had scouts watching the Rangers/Royals series, which is no surprise given that both teams could be such big players before August 1.
Volquez is also something of a known commodity in Texas, having been originally signed by the Rangers as an 18-year-old amateur free agent in 2001 and breaking into the bigs with them from 2005-07. Now 33 years old, Volquez has had his share of ups and downs over his 12 years in the bigs, though he experienced a bit of a career revival with the Pirates in 2014 as one of the many success stories of pitching coach Ray Searage. Volquez turned that bounce-back year into his current deal with the Royals, and the righty was a big part of Kansas City’s World Series championship team in 2015.
This season hasn’t gone quite as smoothy for Volquez, as he has only a 4.56 ERA over 124 1/3 innings even after today’s strong outing. ERA indicators show that his ERA is roughly a half-run higher than it should be, and Volquez is providing his usual contribution of generating ground balls (53.4% grounder rate) while not missing many bats (6.92 K/9). Volquez also averaged 186 innings per season from 2012-15, so his durability would bring much-needed stability to the thinned-out Texas rotation.
Mets Interested In Jonathan Lucroy, Offering Travis D’Arnaud In Return
The Mets are interested in Brewers catcher Jonathan Lucroy, and current Mets catcher Travis d’Arnaud seems to be part of any potential package the Amazins could send to Milwaukee, Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News reports. The Brewers rejected a straight one-for-one offer of Lucroy for d’Arnaud, so as Ackert notes, the Mets’ ability to stay competitive in the race for Lucroy’s services will hinge on the caliber of prospect New York is willing to surrender along with d’Arnaud. As of Sunday, no deal between the Mets and Brewers was imminent.
Lucroy has been speculatively linked to the Mets as a possible solution to their hitting woes, though the Mets were still thought to be looking at d’Arnaud as their catcher of the future. In my recent examination of Lucroy’s trade market, I also dismissed the Mets as a possible candidate mostly due to d’Arnaud’s presence but also due to a lack of minor league depth. While New York has some impressive prospects on hand (i.e. Dominic Smith, Amed Rosario, Gavin Cecchini, Brandon Nimmo), their system is rather thin overall.
For dealing d’Arnaud and years of a controllable top prospect, the Mets would land one of the top catchers in baseball in Lucroy. Not only has Lucroy strongly bounced back after an injury-plagued 2015 season, he has re-established himself as one of the game’s top bargains. Lucroy is in the final guaranteed year of a five-year, $11MM extension signed prior to his breakout 2012 season, and there is a team option on his services for only $5.25MM for 2017. With payroll limitations still a lingering concern for the Mets, they could be particularly eager to obtain a top-tier talent at a low price.
It wasn’t too long ago that d’Arnaud was himself a sought-after commodity, as he and Noah Syndergaard headlined the trade package sent by the Blue Jays to the Mets in the R.A. Dickey trade in December 2012. While d’Arnaud has looked good when healthy, he has been plagued by a wide array of injuries during his brief career, missing time due to varied injuries to his hand, foot, knee, back, elbow and (most recently) a rotator cuff strain that put him on the DL earlier this season. Perhaps most troubling of all, d’Arnaud has also suffered at least three known concussions. There has already been heavy speculation that d’Arnaud will have to be moved to first base for the sake of his health, so he doesn’t necessarily protect as a replacement for Lucroy behind the plate in Milwaukee.
Lucroy may not be the only Mets target on the Milwaukee roster, as the Amazins are known to be looking for relief help and have been linked to relievers Jeremy Jeffress and Will Smith. Ackert reports that the Brewers were one of many teams recently scouting the Mets’ lower-level minor league clubs. This is just my speculation, but New York may be more willing to part with a top prospect in the Smith/Rosario/Cecchini tier if both Lucroy and one of the relievers could be obtained in the same deal.
Latest On Aroldis Chapman, Andrew Miller
SUNDAY, 6:32pm: Shortstop Gleyber Torres, one of the Cubs’ top prospects, has been scratched from the lineup for Chicago’s High-A affiliate tonight, according to Sports Illustrated’s Kenny Ducey (Twitter link). Torres was known to be of interest to the Yankees, and Heyman tweets that the Cubs have an offer of Torres and more on the table for Chapman. Torres was a consensus top-50 prospect (#28 from MLB.com, #41 from Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus) in preseason minor league rankings, and the 19-year-old is hitting .275/.359/.433 in 409 plate appearances this season.
3:52pm: Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner still hasn’t given general manager Brian Cashman the green light to sell off top veterans, including Chapman, according to Heyman. As of now, the Indians, Cubs, Nationals, Rangers and a mystery team are pushing for Chapman. (Twitter link).
12:57pm: The Indians have the best names on the table for Chapman right now and a trade could be close, a source told Bruce Levine of 670TheScore (Twitter link). The Nationals are also aggressively going after Chapman, notes Levine, and Keith Law of ESPN hears (on Twitter) that Erick Fedde, Koda Glover and another prospect will head to the Yankees if the two sides strike a deal. Fedde, a right-hander, is Baseball America’s 61st-ranked prospect.
11:03am: The Yankees are dissatisfied with the Nationals’ offers, who are behind at least three other teams (including a mystery club) in the Chapman derby, writes Heyman. Further, the remaining $5MM on Chapman’s contract could make it difficult for a team like the Indians to acquire him, as the Yankees are currently unwilling to eat any of that money.
Meanwhile, the Giants sense that the momentum is elsewhere in regards to Chapman, tweets Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News. The Yankees are giving the Giants “radio silence” and don’t like San Francisco’s farm system as much as other suitors’, adds Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle.
10:06am: The Cubs are “strong” in the mix for Chapman, according to Rosenthal. The Dodgers and the previously reported teams have also been in pursuit (Twitter links).
8:46am: Chapman is the Nationals’ No. 1 target, per FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman, who adds that the Yankees are interested in Nats right-handed starter Joe Ross. The Giants are also in the Chapman sweepstakes, but neither they nor the Indians are progressing toward a deal with the Yankees. The Cubs are higher on Miller than Chapman, though it doesn’t appear the former is going anywhere.
Although Ross has been out for several weeks with inflammation in his throwing shoulder, it’s fair to say he’d be a significant pickup for the Yankees in a Chapman trade. The 23-year-old has thrown 172 innings and put up a 3.56 ERA, 7.74 K/9, 2.46 BB/9 and 46.6 percent ground-ball rate since debuting in the majors last season. Unsurprisingly, there’s “no chance” of Washington moving Ross for a rental, a source told Heyman (Twitter link).
8:38am: The Yankees have asked the Nationals, Cubs, Indians and a mystery team to submit their best and final offers for Chapman, an industry source told Ken Davidoff of the New York Post.
SATURDAY, 10:18pm: A Chapman trade isn’t necessarily imminent, but the Yankees are ready to conclude the process, tweets Rosenthal.
9:32pm: The Yankees are telling teams that they’re nearing a trade involving closer Aroldis Chapman, but they plan on keeping fellow left-handed relief ace Andrew Miller, reports FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal (Twitter link). There’s no word yet on where the Yankees will send Chapman in advance of the Aug. 1 non-waiver trade deadline.
As of earlier Saturday, the Nationals were pursuing Chapman – to whom they’ve been connected for months – but they haven’t shown an eagerness to part with top prospects for the 28-year-old free agent-to-be. Fellow contenders like the Cubs, Indians and Giants, among others, have also been linked to Chapman, whom the Yankees acquired from the Reds for an underwhelming prospect package during the offseason amid his domestic violence issues.
The flame-throwing Chapman served a month-plus suspension to begin the season because of his off-field misdeeds, but he has been his usual dominant self on the mound since. Over 31 1/3 innings this year, Chapman has pitched to a 2.01 ERA while notching 12.64 strikeouts and walking 2.3 batters per nine innings, and converting 20 of 21 save chances. Chapman’s strikeout rate represents a career low, though his walks are at a personal best and he hasn’t shown any signs of losing velocity, having exceeded 105 mph on Monday. The exact speed (105.1) is the fastest pitch ever on radar, tying Chapman’s record from 2010.
For the Yankees, dealing Chapman would be an admission that they’re not all in on contending this year. The Bombers dropped a 12-inning decision to the Giants on Saturday and fell to 49-48, which puts them 7.5 games behind the AL East-leading Orioles and 4.5 out of a Wild Card spot. On the other hand, judging by their decision to keep the 31-year-old Miller – who has outperformed Chapman this season – they haven’t abandoned all near-term hope. Miller is locked up through 2018 at $9MM per annum and would surely merit a significant return (even greater than what Chapman will bring back), but the Yanks look prepared to hold him and hope he’s part of playoff teams in the Bronx over the next couple years.
Even if the Yankees part with Chapman, he, like Miller, could conceivably be part of their plans beyond this season. Chapman would have to hit free agency and New York would have to be motivated to re-sign him, of course. He seems likely to exceed his 2016 salary ($11.325MM) on a long-term deal in the offseason, and it stands to reason that the Yankees could be the club to give him that contract on the open market. For now, it appears Chapman will head to a team in better position to compete for a World Series this season.
Padres Shopping Derek Norris
While most deadline buzz surrounding the Padres has involved Andrew Cashner and Melvin Upton, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (Twitter link) reports that San Diego is also “pushing hard” to trade catcher Derek Norris.
Norris has been rumored as a trade candidate for months, thanks to the Padres’ rebuilding plans and the club’s desire to permanently promote top prospect Austin Hedges (who has crushed Triple-A pitching over the last two seasons). In his examination of the catching trade market, MLBTR’s Steve Adams described Norris as no less than “the likeliest player in all of baseball to get traded.”
The issue, however, is that Norris is on pace for the worst hitting season of his five-year MLB career. Norris is hitting just .204/.263/.379 with 12 homers over 312 plate appearances. His .247 BABIP indicates a bit of bad luck, though he also has a career-high with a career-high 28.8% strikeout rate. It seemed as if Norris had turned the corner by delivering an .824 OPS in June, though he has struggled again this month. On the plus side, Norris had traditionally been considered a poor defensive catcher but as per both Baseball Prospectus (FRAA) and Fangraphs (Defensive Runs Saved) metrics, Norris has been one of baseball’s better defenders behind the plate in 2016. He has also thrown out 16 of 55 baserunners trying to steal on him this season.
Despite the rough hitting numbers and now two straight years of a subpar on-base percentage, Norris should still garner some interest. He is only 27 and is controllable through the 2018 season, as he is earning $2.925MM this season in his first time through arbitration eligibility. It was only two years ago, of course, that Norris reached the All-Star Game as a member of the Athletics.
Jonathan Lucroy is unquestionably the top name among catchers available in trade talks, so it’s possible the Padres may not get any momentum towards a Norris deal until Lucroy is off the board. On the flip side, the Brewers are obviously asking for a lot in return for their star backstop, so teams unwilling or unable to meet Milwaukee’s price for Lucroy could turn to Norris as a cheaper alternative.
The Rangers and Indians have both been linked to Lucroy, though they’ve also been connected to other big-time targets — the Rangers for top starters like Chris Sale or several arms from the Rays’ rotation and the Tribe to Aroldis Chapman. If either club has to surrender a big prospect package to land one of those targets, they might not have the young talent necessary to get Lucroy, so Norris could be next up. Texas, notably, had interest in Norris in the offseason and even in April when Robinson Chirinos hit the DL. The Astros like Norris, SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo reports, though it isn’t clear whether Houston and San Diego are actively discussing a deal.
Astros Promote Alex Bregman
The Astros have announced the promotion of highly touted infield/outfield prospect Alex Bregman and the designation for assignment of infielder Danny Worth. Bregman will join the surging Astros on Monday for the start of their home series against the Yankees.
[RELATED: Updated Astros Depth Chart]
Bregman, whom Keith Law of ESPN (Insider required and recommended) ranks as the best prospect in baseball, has torn through minor league pitching since the Astros selected him second overall in last year’s draft. The 22-year-old ex-LSU standout has been especially impressive this season, having posted a .297/.415/.559 batting line with 14 home runs in 285 plate appearances in Double-A. The Astros’ decision to promote Bregman to Triple-A in late June didn’t slow down the right-handed hitter, who slashed an astounding .356/.397/.685 with six homers in 78 trips to the plate with Fresno. Between the two levels this season, Bregman has recorded more unintentional walks (47) than strikeouts (37), further demonstrating his offensive prowess. Law likens Bregman’s upside at the dish to that of Red Sox star second baseman Dustin Pedroia.
Baseball America rates Bregman as the game’s eighth-best prospect, meanwhile, and praised his “simple, level swing,” bat speed and patience after last season (subscription required and recommended). Moreover, BA lauded his base-running and defensive skills, though there are questions as to where he’ll line up with the Astros. Over the long haul, BA, Law and MLB.com (which has Bregman as the No. 18 overall prospect in the game) see him faring well at short. That would require Houston to move Carlos Correa elsewhere, however (likely third base); notably, MVP candidate Jose Altuve mans second base.
In the near term, the Astros could send Bregman to left field, where they’ve had him spend time in the minors, or third. However, big-money free agent signing Yulieski Gurriel‘s forthcoming debut will only complicate things further. That isn’t a negative for the red-hot Astros, though, who have climbed to a season-best 10 games over .500 since a dismal start and are within 2 1/2 games of AL West-leading Texas and a half-game of the second Wild Card spot.
Wherever the Astros play Bregman, it’s fair to assume he’s in the majors for good. With that being the case, he’ll come up short of Super Two status in the likely event he remains with the Astros through the end of the season. Bregman can accrue up to 70 days of service time in the majors this year, meaning he won’t be eligible for arbitration until after 2019 and will stay under club control through the 2022 campaign.
Worth, 30, joined the Astros on a minor league deal over the winter and went on to collect 40 plate appearances with them this year, hitting a meager .179/.200/.231. The longtime member of the Tigers organization owns a .224/.282/.288 line in 332 career PAs.
Minor MLB Transactions: 7/24/16
Sunday’s minor transactions from around baseball:
- The Orioles have signed veteran left-hander Tom Gorzelanny to a minor league contract, according to David Hall of the Virginian-Pilot (Twitter link). Gorzelanny became a free agent earlier this month after rejecting an outright assignment to Triple-A from the Indians, who designated him for assignment July 4. The 34-year-old has a career 4.40 ERA, 7.3 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 in parts of 12 seasons (883 2/3 innings) with six different teams. Gorzelanny tossed 39 1/3 of those frames last year in Detroit, where opposing hitters battered him to the tune of a 5.95 ERA.
- The Blue Jays have signed right-hander Scott Copeland to a minor league deal, per a club announcement. Copeland, 28, was previously in the Toronto organization from 2012-15, mostly working in the minor leagues. He got his first taste of big league action last season and allowed 11 earned runs on 24 hits in 15 1/3 innings. Copeland only walked two hitters in that span, but struck out just six. The Blue Jays then sold Copeland to the LG Twins of the Korea Baseball Organization, where he struggled through 63 1/3 innings this year in the hitter-friendly league.
- The Indians have announced the release of 26-year-old outfielder Bryson Myles, whom the Tribe selected in the sixth round of the 2011 draft. Myles never made it to the majors with the Indians, but he did climb his way to Triple-A Columbus this year. He hit a meek .234/.305/.330 in 105 plate appearances with the Clippers, however, thus leading to his departure from the organization. All told, Myles batted a solid .277/.356/.414 in 2,058 PAs with the Indians’ minor league affiliates.
Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Lucroy, Pomeranz, Jays, A’s
This week’s spin around the baseball blogosphere:
- Brew City Sports Report views the Indians and Brewers as logical partners in a Jonathan Lucroy trade.
- AV Blogs: MLB 2016 lauds the Red Sox‘s recent acquisition of left-hander Drew Pomeranz.
- Baseball MTJAG combats AV Blogs’ view on the Pomeranz deal and contends that the Padres won the trade.
- TPOP advises the Pirates to trade for White Sox southpaw Jose Quintana.
- A’s Farm chats with Athletics rookies Ryon Healy and Daniel Mengden.
- Jays From The Couch interviews Blue Jays infielder Ryan Goins.
- Inside the ‘Zona opposes the idea of the Diamondbacks trading either Zack Greinke or Shelby Miller.
- Chin Music Baseball opines that president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski is doing exactly what the Red Sox hired him to do.
- Pirates Breakdown regards Angels righty Matt Shoemaker as a player the Pirates should pursue before the deadline.
- The First Out At Third analyzes which players the Brewers will trade and which they’ll retain at the deadline.
- Bleeding Royal Blue breaks down Royals left fielder Alex Gordon‘s 2016 struggles.
- Wayniac Nation praises Athletics shortstop prospect Franklin Barreto.
- isportsweb searches for the Phillies’ next ace.
- FantasyPros comes up with some potential deadline deals and looks at their fantasy baseball impact.
- LA Dodger Report wonders if outfielder Yasiel Puig‘s time with the Dodgers is winding down.
- Everything Bluebirds argues in favor of Major League Baseball reducing its 162-game regular-season schedule.
- Rum Bunter reviews the potential deadline targets the Pirates have scouted.
- Dan Grant of Same Page Team explains why the Blue Jays need to keep right-hander Aaron Sanchez in their rotation.
- BP Toronto breaks down Sanchez’s pitch usage.
- Philliedelphia asks if the Phillies could swing an offseason trade for Marlins second baseman Dee Gordon.
- Yanks Go Yard projects the Yankees’ 2017 lineup.
- The Runner Sports profiles Astros Double-A catcher Garrett Stubbs and likens him to an all-time franchise great.
- Blue Jay Hunter details the changes Blue Jays right-hander Marcus Stroman has made to his delivery.
- Jays Journal sees a resurgent Stroman as the Blue Jays’ best possible deadline acquisition.
- Outside Pitch MLB names some sell-high candidates for the deadline.
- NatsGM talks with Chris Cotillo of SB Nation.
- Tomahawk Take laments the existence of the designated hitter.
- Chris Zantow revisits Hank Aaron‘s 755th and final home run.
- Pinstriped Prospects highlights Yankees infielder Mandy Alvarez.
- Now On Deck ranks the league’s division leaders in order of which is likeliest to finish in first place at season’s end.
- Baseball Hot Corner ponders what’s next for Blue Jays first baseman/outfielder Chris Colabello.
- BaseballDocs puts together some potential deadline blockbusters.
- Halo Headquarters checks in on the offseason trade that sent Andrelton Simmons from the Braves to the Angels.
Please send submissions to ZachBBWI@gmail.com.
Top 50 Trade Candidates
We waited to update MLBTR’s top trade candidate series for a bit, in recognition of the All-Star break lull. But things are starting to pick up quite a bit, and there’s plenty of change afoot as the list doubles in size from the most recent iteration. Drew Pomeranz, who sat in 13th position in our last list, was shipped in the biggest mid-season deal thus far. There are several other notable factors influencing the ranking you’ll see below; in particular, we’re now considering teams like the Yankees, White Sox, Royals, and Mariners as plausible sellers with the deadline nearing. None are fully committed in either direction as of yet, but there’s less time now for a dramatic change of fortune before August 1st.
Your weekly reminder: we’re not just ranking players by skill alone; we’re looking at overall asset value and trade likelihood. To assess trade value, we’re starting with overall on-field ability — with a premium on the capacity to make an impact in the current season — and then adjusting for contract and market factors. With contenders’ needs in relatively sharp focus, limitations such as future contract status, age, and niche role (platoon bats, relief-only pitchers) tend to have less of a drag on value — though obviously they still matter quite a bit. With regard to the likelihood of a swap, the focus is on potential selling teams’ motivation to deal, with contract status, near and long-term roster fit, and overall competitiveness all weighing heavily. Some teams simply aren’t in a position at present where it makes sense to include their top potential trade chips, but that will evolve over the coming weeks.
On to the ranking:
1. Aroldis Chapman, RP, Yankees — Though the Yanks are still in reasonable range for contention, word is that they’re readying to deal Chapman. The Cuban Missile promises to be a powerful weapon for whoever acquires him, with many of the best teams in baseball lining up for that chance — reportedly including the Indians, Cubs, Nationals, Dodgers, and Giants.
2. Jonathan Lucroy, C, Brewers — The Indians are said to have opened talks on Lucroy after losing Yan Gomes and receiving bad news on Michael Brantley‘s health, and the Rangers are also seemingly kicking around the idea of a move. Though it’s not certain he’ll be dealt, Lucroy still has the best blend of trade likelihood and value — he’s a top player at a premium defensive position who is playing on a super-cheap deal with control remaining.
3. Josh Reddick, OF, Athletics — Extension talks seem to be going nowhere, so it’s probably time for the veteran to be shipped out of Oakland. Having resumed his solid form at the plate since returning from the DL, he’s the best all-around rental outfielder available. The Cubs are among the teams said to be looking at Reddick.
4. Jay Bruce, OF, Reds — Bruce’s previous placement at the top of this list was driven largely by the fact that he was so obviously available. With the picture now more clear in other areas, and Bruce cooling off of late, he’s sliding a bit.
5. Andrew Cashner, SP, Padres — It seems all but certain that Cashner will be traded; indeed, there was buzz that he’d be gone before his last start. After turning in two quality outings, rivals organizations might be more willing to take a chance on the up-and-down righty.
6. Rich Hill, SP, Athletics — It’s hard to place Hill, who has been unbelievable all year but has dealt with two seemingly minor but nagging injuries. The most recent one is a blister that hasn’t healed enough to allow him to get back in the rotation. Hill can still be traded even if he isn’t able to make it back before the deadline, but that possibility only makes his already hard-to-gauge value all the more uncertain.
7. Carlos Beltran, OF, Yankees — Beltran is another Yankee who’s tough to place, albeit for slightly different reasons. We haven’t heard a ton of chatter on the veteran, who is hitting at near-peak rates at 39 years of age. He’s a pure rental who is eligible for free agency this winter.
8. Steve Pearce, IF/OF, Rays — Pearce is matching his 2014 breakout with a .322/.393/.552 slash. He has also been hurt, which has been an issue in the past, but with a meager $4.75MM salary for the season he’d be quite an affordable addition. He isn’t a great defender, but Pearce has proven capable of playing first, second, and the corner outfield, so he could provide plenty of plate appearances to the right organization.
9. Jake Odorizzi, SP, Rays — Odorizzi has been far from dominant — he owns a 4.39 ERA in 110 2/3 innings — but he’s steady, young, cheap, and controlled for three more seasons. He still seems the most likely Rays pitcher to change hands.
10. Jeremy Hellickson, SP, Phillies — It has been a very strong campaign for the 29-year-old, who carries a 3.84 ERA with 8.0 K/9 against 2.0 BB/9 over 119 2/3 frames. It’s exactly what the Phils were hoping for when they added him over the winter, as he has been a nice stabilizing force and now looks like a solid trade piece in a market that doesn’t feature many useful rental starters.
11. Ervin Santana, SP, Twins — Teams prioritizing steadiness and durability will likely zero in on Santana, who’s a good bet to provide some reliable innings down the stretch and over the rest of his contract.
12. Matt Moore, SP, Rays — If, instead, you’d rather roll the dice on upside, then perhaps Moore is your guy. His contract is no longer quite as enticing as it once was, particularly since he can’t seem to turn the corner on the hill, but if he can find his form he’d once again be a premium asset.
13. Yunel Escobar, INF, Angels — It’s hard to discount the run he’s been on the last two years too much, but clubs will surely be wary of the fact that he’s doing it with a .350-ish BABIP. Without much pop in the bat, and a middling glove, there are limits to his value.
14. Danny Valencia, INF, Athletics — Valencia has fallen back at the plate and recently was moved off his regular third base gig. That seems to suggest that he’s not a major part of Oakland’s plans for 2017, but it also doesn’t necessarily do much for his trade value.
15. Melvin Upton Jr., OF, Padres — Trade chatter is picking up quite a bit on the resurgent Padres outfielder. His big contract will factor heavily in the market, as the Ubaldo Jimenez rumors would suggest, but he looks to be quite a useful addition for a contender in need of a fill-in starter or oft-used fourth outfielder.
16. Peter Bourjos, OF, Phillies — This feels a bit high for a player who is hitting quite well now, but hasn’t ever been a consistently useful offensive player. But that’s not the real reason for it. Instead, with Bourjos showing some life at the plate, he looks like an obvious player to change hands. His speed and defense make him a nice bench piece down the stretch, and with free agency coming, the Phils don’t have much reason not to cash him in.
17-19. Outfielders Ryan Braun (Brewers), Carlos Gonzalez & Charlie Blackmon (Rockies) — This trio is tough to gauge. You could argue that the Brewers ought to sell Braun now, but is the market really willing? And is Rockies owner Dick Monfort ready to pack in not only on 2016, but also ding the team’s near-future outlook by dealing away a high-quality outfielder?
20-21. Shortstops Eduardo Nunez (Twins) & Zack Cozart (Reds) — These are the two best middle infielders on the market — Cozart is an outstanding true shortstop, while Nunez has experience all over — but we’re still not seeing clear demand crystallize.
22-23. Relievers Jeremy Jeffress & Will Smith, Brewers — Milwaukee’s quality and controllable relievers could be traded or not, but odds are at least one will change hands as teams that miss out on bigger targets go looking for a backup plan.
24-26. Starters Jorge De La Rosa (Rockies), Ivan Nova (Yankees) & Jon Niese (Pirates) — There’s always demand for innings on the trade market, and these three starters bring that along with at least some hope for more.
Keep reading for the rest of the list and other names that were considered …