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AL East Notes: Red Sox, Blue Jays, Anthopoulos

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Dave Dombrowski has never shied away from free agent splashes, but he’s really made his bones with trades.  Now, with the GM Meetings on the horizon, it will be interesting to see how the new Red Sox president of baseball operations knows his new farm system, Brian MacPherson of The Providence Journal writes.  Dombrowski has indicated that he might deal from the team’s organizational outfield depth, but deciding who to move and who to hold can be tricky.  DD will have to evaluate outfielders from the majors like Mookie Betts and Jackie Bradley Jr. down to minor leaguers Manuel Margot and Andrew Benintendi.

Here’s more out of the AL East:

  • When asked if he could eventually return to the Blue Jays as GM, Alex Anthopoulos told Jim Bowden and Jim Duquette of SiriusXM (via Twitter links) that there is “no chance.”  When asked if he’d seek out another GM job, AA said, “Certainly not in the near term. Going forward, I would be open to it. I don’t know I need to do it again.”  Anthopoulos also refuted reports that new Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro was critical of his summer trades.  Shapiro himself shot those rumors down in a press conference last week.
  • There’s a lot of pressure on Dombrowski to acquire an ace, but ultimately any big ticket move will be the call of Red Sox owner John Henry, Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald writes. It is well known that Henry is against long-term, high-priced deals for aging pitchers, but one industry insider speculates that he will defer to Dombrowski’s judgment “on one big fish” this winter.  Last year, the Red Sox went into April without a true ace and while there were other factors holding them back, they wound up with a second consecutive last-place finish.
  • Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com looked at MLBTR’s projection of a six-year, $144MM deal for Orioles slugger Chris Davis and gave his own take.

NL East Notes: Baker, Nats, Marlins, Gordon

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The Nationals reportedly agreed to hire Bud Black as their manager before going with Dusty Baker, but GM Mike Rizzo has a slightly different version of events.  “We definitely had financial parameters discussed with (both), at the same time,” Rizzo said at a press conference, according to The Associated Press.

“We felt that was the best track to go by,” Rizzo said, “because sometimes the negotiating process also tells you a lot about the people that you’re negotiating with. As we discussed baseball in the interview process, and parameters in the financial process, we came to the conclusion that Dusty Baker was the perfect guy for us.”

Here’s more from the NL East..

  • The Marlins will explore making an extension offer to second baseman Dee Gordon, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald writes.  For his part, Gordon says that he would be receptive to such an offer.  The NL batting and stolen base champ is under team control for a few more years and will not be eligible to hit the open market until after the 2019 season.   Recently, team president David Samson remarked that the organization has “three of the top ten players in baseball” — referring to Giancarlo Stanton, Jose Fernandez, and Gordon.
  • The Marlins are less optimistic about signing shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria, however. Miami is under the impression that the 26-year-old (27 in April) will seek a deal in the neighborhood of Elvis Andrus’ eight-year, $120MM pact. Hechavarria, under team control through 2018, slashed a career-best .281/.315/.374 in 2015.  Of course, he is valued more for his glove, which resulted in a stellar 17.7 UZR/150 this past season.
  • Catcher Jeff Mathis remains a possibility to return to the Marlins because of his defense and the way he handles the pitching staff, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald writes.  Mathis, 33 in March, slashed just .161/.214/.290 in 103 plate appearances last season.  For his career, he owns a slash line of .194/.254/.306 over the course of eleven big league campaigns.  While he won’t be winning any battling titles soon, Mathis is valued for plenty of other things outside of his bat.

MLBTR Originals

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A look back at the original reporting and analysis found on MLBTR the last seven days:

Cafardo On Napoli, Victorino, Gomes

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Analytics have taken over baseball and not everyone is thrilled about it, as Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe writes in today’s column.

“I’ve seen so many good baseball men who will be pushed out of the game, and never be allowed back, to make room for some of the huge analytical departments that these teams employ now,” said an American League GM. “And the question we all have: Has this made the game better? I’m not sure the answer to that is yes.”

Cafardo also broke down MLB’s teams in a T-chart of “Analytical” vs. “Traditional” and the split appears to be roughly 50/50.  Interestingly, every team in the AL West is listed as an analytical club while the entire NL East is in the traditional column.

Here’s more from Cafardo:

  • There’s “some talk about” free agent Mike Napoli adding the catching position back into his arsenal, Cafardo writes.  Playing as a first baseman/outfielder in the second half of the season, Napoli helped restore his value by hitting .295/.396/.513 with five homers for the Rangers across 78 plate appearances.  Napoli would make sense as a right-handed-hitting complement to the club’s left-heavy lineup and GM Jon Daniels says that there is interest in a reunion.
  • Agent John Boggs told Cafardo that client Shane Victorino wants to play in 2016.  The agent added that Victorino is finally healthy and intends on getting back to switch-hitting.  The Flyin’ Hawaiian hit just .230/.308/.292 in 2015 in 204 combined plate appearances for the Red Sox and Angels.  Still, he’s only two years removed from his 2013 campaign in which he slashed .294/.351/.451 with 15 homers for Boston.
  • Jonny Gomes would love to be a manager some day, but not just yet. “They’ll have to rip the jersey off my back,” the 34-year-old said.  Last week, Gomes had his $3MM option declined by the Royals.  On paper, that’s not an unreasonable sum for a platoon outfielder that posted a .371 OBP and a .185 isolated power (slugging minus batting average) against lefties, but KC opted for greater payroll flexibility.  Gomes came to the Royals in an August deal with the Braves picking up half of his remaining salary.
  • In his short time with the Red Sox, newly-minted Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto turned in a detailed report on the Sox organization from top to bottom, according to Red Sox top exec Dave Dombrowski.  With that kind of intimate knowledge of the Sox, Cafardo speculates that it would make sense to watch for Mariners/Red Sox trade talks.
  • Some have theorized that ex-Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos will eventually become the GM of a Montreal franchise, whether it’s by expansion or the relocation of the Rays or A’s.  While that could be a fit, Cafardo writes that AA is very likely to get a job before that takes place.

Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Indians, Gardner, Cardinals

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Here’s this week’s look around the baseball blogosphere:

Please send submissions to Zach at ZachBBWI@gmail.com.

West Notes: Rangers, Padres, Rockies, Eppler

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The Rangers made their biggest additions at the trade deadline, writes Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. The principle additions were ace Cole Hamels along with relievers Jake Diekman and Sam Dyson. Between Hamels’ contract and raises to existing personnel, the Rangers won’t have budget to compete for top free agents. Instead, they’ll pursue more cost effective options. Possible reunions with Yovani Gallardo, Colby Lewis, and Mike Napoli represent a few possible fits. Additional bullpen depth is also seen as a need.

Here’s more from the western divisions:

  • Padres GM A.J. Preller “remains an enigma,” writes Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union Tribune. Payroll is expected to range anywhere from slightly below last season’s $108MM to $120MM. That doesn’t give Preller any room for a splashy free agent signing. The club does have to work on building a better balanced product. A real shortstop – not Will Middlebrooks or Jedd Gyorko – should be a priority. The club probably also needs to replace Ian Kennedy and add another depth piece to the rotation. James Shields, Craig Kimbrel, Joaquin Benoit, and Derek Norris are the most likely veterans to be traded.
  • History says the Rockies won’t make a splash either, writes Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. Trade interest in outfielder Carlos Gonzalez could affect the team’s plans. If the club is able to trade the two-years and $37MM remaining on his deal, they could potential bid for a slugger like Chris Davis. Despite terrible performance out of the rotation, they probably won’t try to woo free agent pitching.
  • Angels GM Billy Eppler is a blend of the old and new schools, writes Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register. For those interested, the profile of Eppler details his rise from intern to one of the top GM prospects in the game. The Angels faithful will hope his blend of scouting chops with an analytical instinct will result in a productive offseason for the club. His first test – the GM Meetings – begins on Monday.

AL Central Notes: Twins, Salazar

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Twins owner Jim Pohlad has given GM Terry Ryan carte blanche this offseason, tweets Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN. That shouldn’t be read to mean that Minnesota will compete to sign Jason Heyward and David Price, but it could signal a more aggressive stance from the club. After years of rebuilding, the team finally has a potent young core headlined by Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton. They entered 2015 with a $108MM Opening Day payroll about half of which went to Joe Mauer, Ervin Santana, Ricky Nolasco, and Phil Hughes. They’ll all return with similar contracts. I would anticipate a modest increase in payroll with veteran bench depth and the bullpen as top priorities.

  • Minnesota should upgrade at catcher and in the bullpen, writes La Velle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune. The club has sufficient rotation depth even if they lack star power. However, the bullpen was a serious problem where only Glen Perkins stands out – and he’s dealt with neck injuries in the last two seasons. Catcher Kurt Suzuki regressed in 2015. Per Ryan, “Kurt, on his behalf, had a very nice 2014. This year was a bit of a struggle. And that’s an area I feel like I need to help the cause. Maybe take some of the workload down a bit. But we need to improve back there.” Former Twin A.J. Pierzynski could be a target to help shoulder the load.
  • The Indians should be open to trading starting pitcher Danny Salazar for the right offensive return, writes Katrina Putnam of FanSided blog Wahoo’s On First. Salazar is coming off an impressive campaign despite starting the season in the minors. He posted a 3.45 ERA with 9.49 K/9 and 2.58 BB/9 in 185 innings and is club controlled through 2021. It’s widely thought that Cleveland will use its rotation depth to improve the lineup, although most analysis focuses on Carlos Carrasco or Corey Kluber. In my opinon, since Salazar is a pre-arbitration player, dealing him could be a challenge from a payroll perspective. They would have to acquire similar pre-arbitration talent.

Mets Notes: Alderson, Shortstop, Cuddyer

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The Mets began 2015 with a $103MM payroll, and they will likely pursue their second consecutive NL pennant with a similar Opening Day figure, writes Marc Carig of Newsday. In lieu of splashy acquisitions, GM Sandy Alderson will have to carefully tweak the current roster. Free agents Yoenis Cespedes and Daniel Murphy are expected to sign elsewhere which could create a need for more offense. The team could try trading pitcher Zack Wheeler, as they attempted in the nixed Carlos Gomez deal. Carig runs down the club’s various needs and potential solutions in detail. In addition to offense, shortstop, second base, and reliever top the list.

  • If they feel the need to acquire a shortstop, the Mets should consider trading for Javier Baez of Jurickson Profar, opines Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Sherman notes that Mets shortstops – namely Wilmer Flores and Ruben Tejada – led New York to the 10th best shortstop WAR. While the fans have long asked for an upgrade at the position, statistics suggest it’s unnecessary. However, with the influx of top prospects at shortstop, there is a growing sentiment that a first division club should have a young stud at the position. Baez has well-known strikeout problems, but they’re the only thing between him and All Star quality production. Profar was once as hyped as Carlos Correa or Francisco Lindor, but he’s missed a couple seasons with a shoulder injury. For what it’s worth, I think the Mets are well served with by their current cost effective options. They should focus their resources on more gaping wounds like second base or a cleanup hitter.
  • Outfielder Michael Cuddyer had surgery on Thursday for a core muscle injury, reports Carig. Cuddyer struggled in the first season of a two-year, $21MM contract. The team also forfeited a draft pick to ink him. Cuddyer, owed $12.5MM in 2016, could see a reduced role in 2016. Michael Conforto and Curtis Granderson are expected to man the outfield corners with Lucas Duda at first base. Since all three are left-handed, he should at least have a regular platoon role. It’s also possible the Mets will view him as a trade candidate.

AL East Notes: Orioles, Rays, Red Sox, Greinke

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The Orioles are generally patient in the free agent market under GM Dan Duquette, writes Rich Dubroff of CSN Baltimore. Duquette’s biggest free agent signings came late in the 2013-2014 offseason when he inked Nelson Cruz and Ubaldo Jimenez. Given that 20 players were extended qualifying offers, Baltimore could once again wait to see if any players fall through the cracks. In my opinion, there are some risks with this strategy. While buying low close to the season has its advantages, it can leave a player under-prepared. Additionally, several clubs appear well positioned to play the waiting game. Duquette could find an unusual amount of competition if he waits to do his shopping until late-January.

Here’s more from the AL East:

  • Former Orioles Chris Davis, Wei-Yin Chen, and Matt Wieters may take a patient approach to finding a new contract, writes Dubroff. All three Scott Boras clients received a qualifying offer. In the case of Davis, the Orioles would like to re-sign him and plan to make a competitive offer. However, Dubroff wonders how long Baltimore will allow Davis to shop for offers before they move onto alternatives. Meanwhile, the market for Wieters may not be particularly robust with the White Sox, Astros, and Dodgers as possible fits. Reliever Darren O’Day was not given a qualifying offer, and he could be in line for a four-year contract.
  • The Rays made an early splash on the trade market, and they’re obviously not done, writes Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. The club has narrowed its focus for the offseason but remains open to discussing any player. Topkin notes that free agent activity will wait until later in the offseason “when their currency of playing time can be worth more than money to players still on the market.” Trade talks figure to revolve around first baseman James Loney. He’s owed $8MM next season. Corner infield prospect Richie Shaffer appears ready for a high profile role if Loney is dealt elsewhere.
  • The Red Sox currently have the 12th pick in the 2016 amateur draft, and it may influence some of their free agent decisions, writes Rob Bradford of WEEI.com. Under the qualifying offer system, the earliest pick ever surrendered to sign a free agent is the 13th (Padres, James Shields). The club would probably be willing to cough up a pick for a top free agent like Zack Greinke, Davis, or Jordan Zimmermann. However, pitchers like Chen, Marco Estrada, and others might not offer enough upside to forego the early pick. Per President Dave Dombrowski, “I think it’s a case-by-case basis and you analyze that based upon the player you have a chance to sign.“
  • As a means of retaining their first pick, the Red Sox may attempt to trade for starting pitching, writes Sean McAdam of CSNNE.com. Trade candidates are harder to predict because it’s unclear which players are really on the table. McAdam believes that A’s starter Sonny Gray, Cleveland’s Carlos Carrasco, and San Diego’s Tyson Ross are logical targets. The club could also chase a top reliever like Craig Kimbrel or Aroldis Chapman.
  • Greinke may not be a fit in Boston, opines Peter Gammons of GammonsDaily.com. Greinke actually hit similarly to Pablo Sandoval on a rate basis and reportedly enjoys batting regularly. There’s also the matter of home division. The NL West includes some of the most pitcher friendly parks in baseball. As such, the Dodgers and Giants are a good fit. Pitchers in the AL East have to survive Fenway and three homer-happy venues in Toronto, New York, and Baltimore. That could hold back the Red Sox in negotiations for other top pitchers like David Price too. Gammons does see a possible trade match with the White Sox for ace Chris Sale. Blake Swihart could potentially serve as a centerpiece.

Phillies Notes: Howard, Ruiz, Thompson, Windle

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The Phillies have plans to use Ryan Howard and Carlos Ruiz in 2016, writes Todd Zolecki of MLB.com. Howard and Ruiz are the only two remaining members from the 2008 World Series winning roster. GM Matt Klentak notes that he’s yet to have a sit down with either veteran, but there is a role for both players. Klentak also talks about the importance of setting expectations. “If we’re doing our jobs and communicating with players throughout the process, I think that goes a long way towards minimizing issues.” Howard will probably continue to platoon with lefty-mashing first baseman Darin Ruf. Ruiz himself acknowledged that teammate Cameron Rupp outplayed him, although Ruiz also sees himself as a starting catcher.

Here’s more from Philadelphia as they prepare to turn the page in 2016:

  • Trade deadline acquisition Jake Thompson could begin the season in the Phillies’ rotation, writes Matt Breen of Philly.com. Thompson, acquired in the Cole Hamels trade, performed well after joining Philadelphia’s Double-A squad with a 1.80 ERA, 6.80 K/9, and 2.40 BB/9 in 45 innings. Only Aaron Nola and Jerad Eickhoff made a strong case for rotation jobs next season so there is a potential job for Thompson. Barring several acquisitions, Adam Morgan will likely get a shot too. Of course, the Phillies will also be aware of service time with regards to promoting Thompson. It strikes me as extremely unlikely that he would open the season in the rotation, although a late April promotion is more palatable. GM Matt Klentak prefers for players to be ready when promoted, saying “we want players to be ready to stick here. I don’t know if developmentally, it does any player a service to flip them up and down throughout the course of a year if it can be avoided.” Baseball America ranks Thompson as the the third best prospect in the Phillies system.
  • Another trade acquisition, Tom Windle, may be ready to join the Phillies bullpen, suggests Jake Kaplan of the Philadelphia Inquirer. The left-handed Windle was originally acquired from the Dodgers along with Zach Eflin last offseason in exchange for Jimmy Rollins. He was converted to relief in June and posted a shiny 1.69 ERA over 26 and 2/3 innings. His fastball has run between 93 and 96 mph in the Arizona Fall League.

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