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AL East Notes: A-Rod, Judge, Murphy, Rays

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Alex Rodriguez has been hired as a part of FOX Sports’ commentary team for the MLB postseason, and in a cross-promoting effort, A-Rod was welcomed on the NFL on FOX pregame show.  As a part of the festivities, Yankees third baseman tossed a football to analyst Jay Glazer, but he went a little high and the errant pass cracked a very expensive-looking monitor, as Justin Tasch of the New York Daily News writes.

After you enjoy that .gif once or twice, check out the latest from the AL East..

  • Chad Jennings of The Journal News looked at the Yankees’ options when it comes to right fielder Aaron Judge.  The 23-year-old obviously holds promise, but Jennings writes that Judge could headline a high-impact trade, possibly for a high-end starter or an established power hitter.  The Yankees balked at including Judge and other top prospects in their late July talks for Craig Kimbrel, so it remains to be seen whether they could have a change of heart this winter.
  • Daniel Murphy has a strong left-handed bat and defensive flexibility, which could help the Yankees, but the Yankees do already have Dustin Ackley and they have a bigger need for power hitting on the other side of the plate, Jennings writes.  Still, Jennings writes that it’s hard to ignore what Murphy is doing for New York’s other team.
  • Asdrubal Cabrera is expected to find a multi-year pact elsewhere but the Rays could bring back John Jaso or Grady Sizemore, just probably not both, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes.  Topkin estimates that Jaso will be in range for a two-year, $10MM deal and that Sizemore could come much cheaper at $1MM.  “They certainly are going to want to test the market and see what’s out there, and we will continue to stay in touch with them. At the same time we are managing a payroll so we have to fit within those constraints. There aren’t going to be any early decisions, I imagine,” baseball operations president Matt Silverman said.

MLBTR Originals

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A look back at the original reporting and analysis found on MLBTR the last seven days:

Cafardo On Carter, Longoria, Strasburg

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Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe is concerned about the Red Sox’s lack of power, but top exec Dave Dombrowski doesn’t seem as worried.

“I think we have enough power,” Dombrowski said last week. “It depends on how the lineup shakes out. Personally, I like guys who can drive the ball into the gaps or hit the ball out of the ballpark. David [Ortiz] is a power guy. Hanley can do what I’m talking about. We don’t strike out in abundance. Our strikeouts are down compared to most clubs in the league. We’re very similar to Kansas City — not a power club.”

Still, in case DD changes his mind, Cafardo lists many intriguing power hitters that could be options for Boston this winter.  Here’s more from today’s column..

  • One major league source believes that the Astros could dangle first baseman Chris Carter as trade bait.  The 28-year-old (29 in December) ended up with a .294/.400/.529 batting line over twenty postseason plate appearances, continuing to build off of the .240/.328/.558 batting line and nine home runs that he put up over his final 120 plate appearances.  Despite that strong second half, his “unpredictable performance, coupled with high strikeouts” could have the Astros a more reliable alternative, Cafardo writes.  MLBTR projects Carter to earn $5.6MM in his second of four trips through arbitration.
  • Evan Longoria’s contract runs another seven years and his production hasn’t been as great as expected, but one AL GM sounds like he’d be pretty high on him still. “The contract he signed is long but reasonable,” the exec told The Boston Globe scribe. The Rays have repeatedly shot down speculation that they would shop the third baseman, but with the position being in such high demand, Cafardo wonders if they would keep an open mind.  The Angels, he says, would be a great fit for the 30-year-old.  Longoria’s contract with the club runs through 2022, which would be his age-36 season, plus the Rays have a club option on his services for 2023.
  • Cafardo is hearing “a lot of buzz” that the Nationals could make right-hander Stephen Strasburg available.  Recently, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reported that the Rangers and Nationals had trade talks involving Strasburg over the winter, though nothing ever came close to getting done.  The 27-year-old right-hander’s value is down due both to an inconsistent 2015 season and to the fact that he now has only one season left before hitting free agency.  Despite all of that, one has to imagine that the Nats would require significant return to part with the former No. 1 overall draft pick.
  • The Indians, Orioles, Mets, Tigers, and maybe even the Red Sox (thanks in part to the Allard Baird connection) could all be in the mix for Royals outfielder Alex Gordon this season, Cafardo writes.  Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com recently wrote that the Astros were a team to keep an eye on with regards to Gordon.
  • Cardinals outfielder/first baseman Brandon Moss is an interesting and affordable left-handed power option for a few clubs this winter, including the Red Sox, Cafardo writes.  Cafardo says the Orioles will be another team “likely” keeping an eye on Moss.  Moss earned $6.5MM in 2015 and the MLBTR projection model has him slated to earn $7.9MM in 2016.  The incumbent Cardinals would reportedly like to retain Moss, at least in a bench capacity.

Heyman On Cespedes, Davis, Mattingly, Phillies

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The Mets seem to love Yoenis Cespedes, and for good reason, but based on talks with Mets people, one rival executive told Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com that he would be “shocked” if the Mets retained him.  After all, Cespedes could be in line for a $150MM+ deal and the Mets are intent on keeping their rotation together for years to come.

The Mets’ other key free agent, Daniel Murphy,  has “made himself millions,” said one scout, in reference to his postseason heroics.  Even though his stock is trending upwards, however, one rival GM said he still thinks the Mets will pass on extending him the $15.8MM qualifying offer.

Here’s a look at more of the highlights from Heyman’s article..

  • The Orioles would appear to have a hard time hanging on to Chris Davis given their usual budget, but Peter Angelos has stated his interest in keeping the slugger and even with a potential ~$200MM asking price, re-signing him hasn’t been ruled out, Heyman writes.  In the most recent edition of Tim Dierkes’ 2016 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings,  Davis is ranked No. 4 ahead of several notable names, including fellow slugger Yoenis Cespedes.  Tim projects that Davis will be vying for a seven-year deal with a mid-$20MM AAV.
  • “Dodgers higher-ups are said to give Don Mattingly big credit for the way he’s handled the clubhouse,” Heyman writes.  It’s not certain that Mattingly will return in 2016, but Heyman notes that the approval of Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke doesn’t hurt his case.
  • Sources confirmed to Heyman that the Phillies have interviewed Royals assistant GM J.J. Picollo and Angels assistant GM Matt Klentak for their GM job.  Both men have been mentioned as candidates for the vacancy.
  • The Cubs love Kyle Schwarber’s bat but they’re still unsure where he’ll end up in the field.  Schwarber is currently slotted in the outfield and it remains to be seen whether he’ll eventually end up behind the plate.
  • Reds bench coach Jay Bell is “thought to have at least come up at some point” in the Marlins’ managerial search, but a source tells Heyman that he is “not in the mix” at this time.
  • Some Padres people could see team exec Moises Alou taking over as manager, but three of Alou’s friends told Heyman that they doubt he’d even want the job.  The known managerial candidates there are Diamondbacks minor-league manager Phil Nevin, former infielder Alex Cora, Diamondbacks coach Andy Green, Angels assistant GM Scott Servais, and ex-Twins manager Ron Gardenhire are said to be candidates for the position, but Heyman hears that Dusty Baker and ex-red Sox catcher Jason Varitek are not candidates at this time.

Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Yankees, Pirates, D’Backs

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On this date in 2005, the NHL’s Montreal Canadiens paid tribute to the departed Expos by raising a commemorative banner in Montreal’s Bell Centre, as Leo Panetta of NationalPastime.com writes. Displaced mascot Youppi was put to work and former players Gary Carter and Andre Dawson were on hand to assist in the hoisting of the banner.  That banner featured their retired numbers, 8 and 10, respectively, as well as the numbers for Tim Raines (30) and Rusty Staub (10).

Here’s this week’s look around the baseball blogosphere..

Please send submissions to Zach at ZachBBWI@gmail.com.

Non-Tender Candidate: Logan Morrison

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The Mariners enter the offseason with two first basemen projected to earn a combined $13.2MM – Mark Trumbo and Logan Morrison. Ten days ago, it was reported that the club may wish to winnow down to just one. Both Trumbo and Morrison can fake it in the outfield, but new GM Jerry Dipoto prefers athletic outfielders. In other words, there may not be a place for both guys.

Trumbo has battled injury over the last couple seasons and will earn about $9.1MM in his final spin through arbitration. Still, it seems unlikely that the team would non-tender him. He hit .263/.316/.419 with 13 home runs in 361 plate appearances after the M’s acquired him mid-season. While a non-tender would be shocking, a trade can almost be expected. After all, Dipoto already dealt Trumbo once while with the Angels.

As for Morrison, there are two considerations that could decide his future with the Mariners – does Seattle keep Trumbo, and do they think Morrison warrants a role. He didn’t do much for his stock this by hitting .225/.302/.383 last season. Over the last four seasons, he’s totaled negative 0.1 WAR according to FanGraphs. However, his best season was in 2014 (1.1 WAR). Management could hope last year’s success was a better representation of his talent.

His poor numbers are partially due to mismanagement. Against right-handed pitching, he slashed .241/.323/.444 (112 wRC+) with all 17 of his home runs. Fellow southpaws owned him yet he was allowed to hit 155 times against same-handed pitching.

As a point of comparison, Brewers slugger Adam Lind only had 112 plate appearances against lefties even though he had 61 more plate appearances than Morrison on the season. Lind had a much larger role with his club than Morrison so there’s really no reason for Morrison to see more lefties.

It’s worth pointing out that Morrison did have reverse platoon splits in 2014, but those depended upon a .389 BABIP. The reverse splits were also responsible for his career best performance last season. Research has shown that reverse splits are almost always illusory and do not correlate to future production. With this information in hand, it’s tempting to conclude that his 2014 campaign was an outlier.

Based on FanGraphs’ WAR model, his $4.1MM arbitration projection would equate to a little over half a win on the free agent market. In other words, he’s expected to be paid like a bench player. If he’s used correctly by his next manager, he could easily earn his keep. The bigger problem is constructing a division-winning roster around him if he’s used as a starter. If Morrison isn’t starting, it’s not a stretch to suggest that the roster spot would be better filled by somebody like Jesus Montero. That would also free up about $3.5MM for other purposes like shoring up the bullpen.

The deadline to tender a contract in early December could work in Morrison’s favor. If the club hopes to sign Chris Davis, they probably won’t yet know where they stand. Similarly, Korean star Byung-ho Park may not even be posted by that time. The other “big” names on the free agent market include Mike Napoli, Kelly Johnson, Steve Pearce, Chris Parmelee, and Justin Morneau (if his $9MM mutual option is declined). Of course, Morrison’s likeliest rival is Trumbo. And the club may ultimately choose to keep both players or discard Morrison regardless of the alternatives.

Sherman’s Latest: Dodgers, Mattingly, Greinke, Puig

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The failure of the Dodgers $310MM roster leaves the club to deal with some tough decisions, writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post. President Andrew Friedman and GM Farhan Zaidi focused on improving clubhouse chemistry in their first season at the helm. The reports are largely positive with manager Don Mattingly and pitcher Zack Greinke both commenting on the improved chemistry. However, Friedman and Zaidi didn’t add much of value at the trade deadline. Their principle additions – Alex Wood, Mat Latos, Luis Avilan, and Jim Johnson contributed almost nothing to the postseason roster.

Here’s more from Sherman on the Dodgers offseason:

  • Mattingly has won three straight division titles, but he may be on the hot seat anyway. Friedman and Zaidi inherited Mattingly so their decision to stick with him could depend on their working relationship. By discarding Matt Kemp, Hanley Ramirez, and Brian Wilson from the roster, the Dodgers were left with a more cohesive roster. Mattingly deserves credit for managing the complicated outfield platoon and transition from Jimmy Rollins to Corey Seager. The Dodgers problems – namely a thin rotation and thinner bullpen – were hardly Mattingly’s fault. The roster construction simply fell short. However, Mattingly could still wind up as the scapegoat, especially if the front office has a better candidate in mind.
  • As CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman first reported, Zack Greinke will opt out after the season. We’ve previously seen five years and $150MM as a high estimate for Greinke, but Sherman thinks the bidding could go beyond that threshold. However, Greinke isn’t the type to “chase the last dollar” if he doesn’t see a clubhouse fit. The Dodgers have plenty of questions in the rotation after Clayton Kershaw. It seems likely they’ll sign at least one of Greinke or fellow free agent ace David Price.
  • Outfielder Yasiel Puig is the lone leftover problem child from the previous administration. The club could trade him after a disappointing season, but they would be selling low. Teams would still be interested due to an affordable three years and $19.5MM remaining on his contract. Other franchises are worried about his reputation, injury history, and thickening body. As Sherman puts it, a thicker Puig may experience further injury and lose explosiveness at the plate.

Poll: Should The Orioles Make Matt Wieters A Qualifying Offer?

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The Orioles entered the season with a number of important impending free agents. We know Chris Davis will receive a $15.8MM qualifying offer, but it’s less of a certainty with the club’s other two candidates. Wei-Yin Chen is also expected to receive and reject a qualifying offer. As we’ve heard multiple times, most recently from CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman, the team has yet to decide what to do with Matt Wieters.

Wieters will be entering his age 30 season after a disappointing 2015 campaign. He started 2015 on the disabled list while recovering from Tommy John surgery. While there was an expectation that he could make the Opening Day roster, he was actually held out until June 5. The club decided to wait until he could start multiple days in a row behind the plate before activating him.

He was in the midst of a breakout in 2014 when he went down with the injury. While his .267/.319/.422 line over 282 plate appearances is a big step back from 2014, it’s almost a perfect replication of his career numbers (.258/.320/.423). The intervening injury does make it difficult to judge who Wieters is as an offensive player. His strikeout rate (23.8% K%) actually increased dramatically – five percent higher than his career norm. It’s possible that a normal offseason could restore him to his typical whiff rates. That means more balls in play and more hits.

Catcher defense has become an increasingly important measure. Wieters draws mixed reviews in this theater of work. His catcher framing from StatCorner is largely discouraging. He was worth negative eight runs in part-time work this year. In his last full season, 2013, he graded out at negative 11 runs. On a positive note, he’s good at blocking pitches and has caught roughly one-third of base runners over his career. That includes eight of 26 attempts this season (30.7%).

The word from Heyman is that the Orioles will extend a qualifying offer only if they’re convinced he won’t take it. In other words, they aren’t comfortable committing $15.8MM to Wieters next season. The club does work under fairly tight budget constraints and may be able to make a bigger upgrade elsewhere with that money. MLBTR’s Steve Adams “can’t imagine” the Scott Boras client would accept, but there are probably a few feasible circumstances where it could make sense.

For example, any physical problem that could negatively affect his ability to sign a long term contract might provide impetus to take a qualifying offer. Teams are always wary of losing an early draft pick. If they’re concerned about his health, Wieters could wind up getting the Nelson Cruz treatment. To be clear, there are no reports that Wieters is dealing with an injury, it’s just one potential scenario under which he may accept a qualifying offer.

If we assume he’s healthy, it does seem like Wieters should merit a sizable multi-year contract. That’s including a declined qualifying offer. There aren’t any perfect recent comps, but I do see Wieters as closer to Russell Martin (signed last offseason for five-years, $82MM) than Jarrod Saltalamacchia (signed after 2013 season for three-years, $21MM). Wieters may merit a similar annual value to Martin (about $16MM) over fewer guaranteed season. Unless we’re seriously overestimating his market, it should be a no-brainer for Wieters to decline the qualifying offer.

Let’s turn to the poll. We have a player who looks like a lock to decline a qualifying offer, but the club is putting out indications that they’re worried he’ll accept it. Do they know something we don’t?

Quick Hits: Hillman, Indians, Almonte

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Astros bench coach Trey Hillman has been the subject of rumors about him becoming the manager of the Yokohama BayStars in Japan, but he says he has not been in touch with them, Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle writes. If Hillman were to go to Japan, it would be more likely that he would return to the Nippon Ham Fighters, who he managed from 2003 through 2007 (although a move to that team doesn’t appear to be in the works right now, either). He does, however, remain open to possibilities outside the Astros organization. “It’s obviously not something that I’m politicking for,” says Hillman. Nonetheless, he adds, “I’m very happy being a Houston Astro, but if something jumps out I’m not going to snub my nose at it.” The Astros have Hillman under contract for 2016, so they would need to grant permission for another club to interview him. Here’s more from around the big leagues.

NL Notes: Ramirez, Dodgers, Harvey

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Manny Ramirez was known for his unusual attitude as a player, and his current role with the Cubs is unclear, but he’s latched on with the organization as a coach, the Associated Press writes. Ramirez isn’t listed as an official member of the Cubs’ coaching staff, but he regularly works with all the team’s hitters, and Jorge Soler and Javier Baez, especially, look up to him. His metamorphosis into an admired coach has been unusual, given that he was suspended for PEDs and that he himself was known for being less than coachable as a player. He was, however, a hard worker, and his appetite for improving his game has also helped him as a coach. Here’s more from the National League.

  • The Dodgers’ playoff ouster shows that Andrew Friedman needs to adjust to the demands of baseball in a big market, Steve Dilbeck of the Los Angeles Times writes. While the Dodgers did win 92 games and the NL West, Dilbeck writes, they were still disappointing because they didn’t advance further than the NLDS and didn’t show appropriate “urgency” by making high-profile deadline moves. From my perspective, that sounds somewhat harsh, given the seemingly limited amount of control a front office has over how its team plays once it reaches the roller coaster of variance that is the postseason. Dilbeck has a point, though, that this winter will be an interesting one for Friedman, who will likely have to strongly consider signing, for the first time in his career, at least one player to a nine-figure contract.
  • The Mets’ unexpectedly strong season has placed starter Matt Harvey in an awkward position, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes. He continues to pitch in the postseason despite a controversy earlier in the year about his innings total this season as he returns from Tommy John surgery. Including the playoffs, Harvey has now pitched 194 1/3 innings this season. Pitching more might risk further injury, but as the reaction to the initial controversy showed, Harvey would be a “pariah” throughout the game if he stopped. And it isn’t hard to understand why the Mets might want to get everything they can out of him now, while they have a chance — clear shots at championships aren’t easy to come by, even for teams that appear to have bright futures.

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