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Extension Candidate: Shelby Miller

By Mark Polishuk | October 19, 2015 at 1:01am CDT

Signing young players to extensions has been the backbone of John Hart’s long career as a baseball executive.  Since taking over the Braves last year, Hart has primarily focused on acquiring new young talent for the rebuilding club rather than locking up existing players. Now that some new pieces are in place, though, Hart and GM John Coppolella will surely look into extending some players that project to be part of the next Braves winning team.

Shelby Miller may well be at the front of that list, as the right-hander is coming off a very solid (albeit unusual) 2015 season.  Miller posted a 3.02 ERA, 7.5 K/9 and 2.34 K/BB rate in his first year in Atlanta, tossing a career-high 205 1/3 innings and reaching his first All-Star team.  Unfortunately for Miller, these numbers didn’t translate into many wins since he received a near-record low amount of run support (2.64 runs per game) from the anemic Braves offense.  This lack of support culminated in an astounding 24-start winless stretch that saw Miller go 0-16 despite a solid 3.83 ERA over that stretch.

While “baseball card stats” are a big part of the arbitration process, Miller’s rough 6-17 record shouldn’t hurt him too much as he enters his first year of eligibility this offseason.  MLB Trade Rumors projects Miller will earn a healthy $4.9MM salary in 2016, and the Braves could look to get some cost certainty over Miller’s two arb years and possibly even a free agent year or two.

"<strongA note about that $4.9MM figure: it would actually set a new record for a starting pitcher in his first year of arbitration eligibility, topping Dontrelle Willis’ $4.35MM figure from 2006.  Last year, Matt Swartz wrote about how that $4.35MM record has somewhat unexpectedly stood the test of time, though MLBTR’s projections have three pitchers beating the mark this winter — Matt Harvey at $4.7MM, Miller at $4.9MM and Dallas Keuchel at $6.4MM.

As we see from the MLBTR Extension Tracker, four starters with 3+ years of service time have signed extensions since the end of the 2012 season.  (I feel comfortable cutting it off there since Kyle Kendrick and Clayton Kershaw aren’t ideal comparables as, respectively, a Super Two player and a reigning Cy Young Award winner.)  Let’s see how Miller compares to these four pitchers using extension size, their MLBTR arbitration projection, notable stats and ERA predictors…

Mat Latos:  Two years/$11.5MM before age-25 season, $4.6MM arbitration projection.  639 IP, 3.41 ERA, 8.42 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 43.7% ground ball rate, 11.5 fWAR (3.47 FIP, 3.60 xFIP, 3.59 SIERA)

Wade Miley: Three years/$19.25MM (with $12MM option for 2018) before age-28 season, $4.3MM projection.  638 2/3 IP, 3.79 ERA, 7.03 K/9, 2.76 BB/9, 48.6% ground ball rate, 7.4 fWAR (3.80 FIP, 3.72 xFIP, 3.90 SIERA)

Lance Lynn: Three years/$22MM before age-28 season, $5.4MM projection but it was an unusual situation, as noted earlier in Matt Swartz’s piece.  616 IP, 3.46 ERA, 8.75 K/9, 3.26 BB/9, 44.4% ground ball rate, 10.5 fWAR (3.34 FIP, 3.64 xFIP, 3.65 SIERA)

Miller: Heading into age-25 season, $4.9MM projection.  575 1/3 IP, 3.22 ERA, 7.56 K/9, 3.24 BB/9, 42.3% ground ball rate, 6.9 fWAR (3.82 FIP, 4.07 xFIP, 4.16 SIERA)

Jhoulys Chacin: Two years/$6.5MM before age-25 season, $1.6MM projection.  411 1/3 IP, 3.68 ERA, 7.57 K/9, 4.18 BB/9, 49.7% ground ball rate, 5.0 fWAR (4.17 FIP, 4.06 xFIP, 4.17 SIERA)

Miller just turned 25 last week, putting him in the Latos/Chacin age bracket.  Miller is clearly a step behind Latos and Lynn WAR-wise (they have an edge in strikeouts and innings) and you can make a case that Miley was also a better pitcher than Miller at this stage of both pitchers’ careers.

Since Miller is three years younger than Lynn and Miley were at the time of their extensions, however, his ultimate price tag is going to be bigger.  If he keeps up his current form through his arbitration years, hitting the open market as a durable and productive 28-year-old arm could mean something in the range of five (or even six) years in the $85MM range.

With this in mind, would Miller even be interested in an extension?  He already banked one nice payday when he signed for a $2.875MM bonus with the Cardinals after being drafted in 2009, and he’ll earn something in that $4.9MM range next year.  Miller is on pace to get healthy raises in his final two arbitration years anyway, so he could very well decide to bet on himself with an eye towards free agency and avoid a long-term commitment.  If the CAA client betters his current form and makes the leap from very good pitcher to full-blown ace, Miller would be costing himself some money by locking himself into an extension now.

The Braves would have to make it worth Miller’s while, therefore, for him to sign away one or two of his free agent years.  A straight club option for 2019 likely wouldn’t be enough unless it had an easily-reachable vesting option.  Corey Kluber’s extension with the Indians could be a model in this regard.  The two club option years that cover what would’ve been Kluber’s first two free agent seasons can rise in value by up to $4MM based on performance escalators, turning a potential extra $27.5MM for Kluber into as much as $35.5MM over those two seasons.

Lynn’s extension paid him $7MM in 2015 and he’s owed $7.5MM in each of the next two years, while Miley’s deal escalated from $4MM last season to $6MM in 2016 and $8.75MM in 2017.  If we mark Miller for $4.9MM this season, it would make sense for Atlanta to boost his salary in 2016-17 once Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn are (in all likelihood) fully off the books.  So at something like $4.9MM in 2016, $7.4MM in 2017 and $9.5MM in 2018, that gets Miler to $21.8MM over three years.  If there’s a 2019 club option, I would guess it would have to be in the $13MM range and, like Kluber’s contract, subject to rise via escalator bonuses.

Unlike Keuchel and Harvey (his fellow would-be arbitration record-breakers), Miller hasn’t quite shown that he’s a frontline ace.  Don’t forget, however, that Miller is just a few years removed from being a consensus top-10 prospect, so it’s very possible that his best is yet to come.  Even at Miller’s current level of production, a four-year deal that could max out in the $38-$39MM ballpark isn’t a bad price to pay for a 25-year-old who’s averaged 187 innings a year since 2013.  It could end up being yet another canny John Hart extension if and when the Braves begin to turn things around.

Image courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas/USA Today Sports Images

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Quick Hits: Harvey, Baker, Pohlad, Cardinals

By Mark Polishuk | October 18, 2015 at 11:05pm CDT

Both the Royals and Mets hold a 2-0 lead in their respective League Championship Series following the Mets’ 4-1 win over the Cubs in Game 2 of the NLCS tonight.  Five Mets pitchers (including Noah Syndergaard, who threw 5 2/3 innings) held Chicago to five hits in the game while Jake Arrieta struggled, allowing four runs in just five innings of work.  The NLCS has an off-day Monday as the scene shifts to Wrigley Field, while the Blue Jays will try to get on the board in Game 3 of the ALCS at Rogers Centre.  Some news from around baseball…

  • Matt Harvey’s excellent start in Game 1 of the NLCS should end any trade speculation surrounding the ace righty, Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald writes.  The innings-limit controversy between Harvey, Scott Boras and the Mets in September led to rumors that the Mets could look to part ways with Harvey this winter, though his postseason performance has surely gone a long way to erasing any hard feelings.
  • Dusty Baker spoke to reporters (including MLB.com’s Barry M. Bloom) about his desire to return to a dugout.  Baker said his recent interview with the Nationals “was good” and apparently he cleared up some misconceptions the Nats might’ve had about him.  “People think they know you through word of mouth, but it’s somebody else’s opinion. I mean, they don’t really know you until you talk to somebody. Then, it’s like, ’Wow, I didn’t know you were like that,’ ” Baker said.  It doesn’t look like the Padres have an interest in Baker as their next manager, however, as he said he contacted San Diego “and they said, ’Thanks for the interest.’ That was the extent of it.”
  • Twins owner Jim Pohlad discusses several topics in an interview with LaVelle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune, including Torii Hunter’s future, Paul Molitor’s rookie season as manager and how the club is responding to their return to respectability.  In regards to payroll, Pohlad said that “we’re willing to do whatever it takes,” though there are apparently some limits.  “I will tell you that I’m not a huge fan of long-term contracts. It’s having to commit for so many years and there’s really only downside to the club. There’s hardly any instances where it has been upside, across baseball,” Pohlad said.
  • That comment from Pohlad is parsed by 1500 ESPN’s Derek Wetmore, who notes that several of the Twins’ recent long-term deals aren’t projecting to end well.  Still, Wetmore doesn’t think Pohlad is absolutely against long-term deals as a rule, and perhaps the owner could be more interested in contracts for fewer years but with a higher annual average value.
  • While the Cardinals haven’t missed a beat in the standings, their offense has been in slow decline for a few seasons, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes.  The Cards’ lineup has been propped up by statistical anomalies (an incredible average with runners in scoring position in 2013, for instance) and their run differential has been inflated by their great pitching and defense.  Power has been a particular issue over the last two seasons, though it’s possible more pop could come from within once youngsters Stephen Piscotty and Randal Grichuk grow more accustomed to the majors.
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AL East Notes: Sox, Young, Hunter, O’s, Pentland

By Mark Polishuk | October 18, 2015 at 9:16pm CDT

Dave Dombrowski traded several prospects for established stars when he was running the Tigers, but will he do the same in Boston?  One rival executive believes so, telling Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald (Twitter link) that “Dave is going to make some moves. He’ll be busy.”  The Red Sox have one of baseball’s most well-regarded minor league systems, so if Dombrowski and GM Mike Hazen did decide to shift some prospects, there would be no shortage of interest from around the league.  Here’s the latest AL East news…

  • Right-hander Chris Young could be an Orioles target this winter, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko writes.  Manager Buck Showalter likes Young, w free agent who has a 3.40 ERA over 288 1/3 innings with the Mariners and Royals over the last two seasons.  Advanced metrics (4.80 FIP, 5.25 xFIP, 5.20 SIERA) haven’t favored Young’s low-strikeout, flyball-inducing numbers, however, and it’s possible he might not be as effective pitching in a more hitter-friendly ballpark like Camden Yards.
  • Also from Kubatko, free agent Tommy Hunter is interested in returning to the Orioles and Kubatko figures the club “will at least discuss” bringing the right-hander back.  Baltimore, however, may not want to spend too much on a reliever who isn’t a closer or setup man, Kubatko warns.  Hunter was dealt to the Cubs in a trade deadline swap for Junior Lake in July.
  • The Yankees will not be bringing hitting coach Jeff Pentland or bullpen coach Gary Tuck back in 2016, George A. King III of the New York Post reports.  Pentland — also a former hitting coach for the Marlins, Cubs, Royals, Mariners and Dodgers — only served on New York’s staff for the 2015 campaign.  Assistant hitting coach Alan Cockrell, minor league coaches James Rowsen and Marcus Thames, and former slugger Raul Ibanez are all cited as King as possible candidates to replace Pentland.  For the bullpen coach job, King suggests that former Yankees bullpen coach Mike Harkey (recently fired as the Diamondbacks pitching coach) could return.
  • For more division news, MLBTR’s Zach Links compiled another edition of AL East Notes earlier today.
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Baltimore Orioles Boston Red Sox New York Yankees Chris Young Tommy Hunter

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Latest On Daniel Murphy, Mets

By Mark Polishuk | October 18, 2015 at 8:16pm CDT

While Daniel Murphy has been a one-man wrecking crew for the Mets this postseason, two team sources tell Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News that the club still isn’t planning to bring the second baseman back in 2016.  “He’s been great, really great, but it changes nothing,” one of the sources said.

It has been assumed for months that the Mets would install Dilson Herrera or Wilmer Flores at second base next season, with Murphy signing elsewhere as a free agent due to his ever-growing price tag.  “If they are keeping their payroll in the same neighborhood, they can’t afford to keep him,” one rival GM said. “He’s making $8 million now, will probably get a bump on that and he’s going to want some years….They already have all that money invested in Juan Lagares ($22.5 million) and Michael Cuddyer ($10 million) who are both back-ups now.  You can’t keep your payroll under control like that.”

Such news won’t be welcome to Mets fans, who have been annoyed by the team’s lack of spending for years as the club has rebuilt around young talent (or, according to some critics, been unable to spend due to the Wilpon family’s financial losses in the Bernie Madoff scandal).  There has even been speculation that the Mets may not issue a qualifying offer to Murphy, as the team is reportedly willing to let Murphy leave without getting a draft pick in return rather than risk him accepting the one-year, $15.8MM contract.  I polled MLBTR readers on the subject last week and only 27.94% of voters felt the Mets shouldn’t make Murphy a qualifying offer.

Murphy hit .281/.322/.449 with 14 homers in 538 PA in 2015 and has a .291/.331/.421 slash line over the last five seasons.  It was already unlikely that he would accept a QO given the lack of top-flight infielders on the free agent market, and it’s probably totally out of the question now given his playoff heroics.  Murphy was hitting .320/.320/.840 with four homers in 25 PA during this postseason heading into tonight’s Game 2 of the NLCS, and in his first at-bat tonight, he added to his hot streak with a two-run homer off of Jake Arrieta.  In a sign of just how feared Murphy has become this October, he was intentionally walked in his second at-bat to get to Yoenis Cespedes.

While it’s a small sample size, Joel Sherman of the New York Post notes that Murphy’s playoff run is impressing observers.  One scout says that Murphy “has been on everything, pulled for power more than I can ever remember and made me start to think if you put him in the right stadium would some of all those doubles he hits every year turn into 20-plus homers annually?”

Sherman hears from various executives and agents that Murphy may now be looking at a deal in the neighborhood of the four-year, $52MM contract Chase Headley signed with the Yankees last season, and perhaps more since Murphy has more positional versatility than Headley and is one of the league’s best contact hitters.  (Speaking of Headley, Sherman adds that the Padres offered Luke Gregerson to the Mets during the 2013-14 offseason for Murphy, who they saw as a possible Headley replacement.)  Those executives also made guesses as to where Murphy could sign this winter, with the Astros, Angels and Dodgers coming up as the most-cited options.

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New York Mets San Diego Padres Daniel Murphy

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Korean Righty Seung-Hwan Oh Interested In Move To MLB

By Mark Polishuk | October 18, 2015 at 6:52pm CDT

Korean relief ace Seung-Hwan Oh has told his agents to explore a new contract with a Major League Baseball club, according to a report from Kyung-Don Joo and Yeong-Seok Lee report of the Korea JoongAng Daily.  Oh’s contract with NPB’s Hanshin Tigers is up, and thus he is a complete free agent who isn’t subject to the posting system.

“We first needed to talk with Hanshin, but our focus is on playing in the United States,” said Dong-Wook Kim, head of the Sports Intelligence agency that represents Oh.  Some MLB teams have already been in contact about Oh’s services, though Kim said that “what’s important is whether the club can offer the environment where Oh can show his best ability.”

Oh, 33, has been one of the top closers in both the Korea Baseball Organization (nine seasons with Samsung Lions) and Nippon Professional Baseball (two seasons with Hanshin) during his 11-year career.  He has posted a sparkling 1.81 ERA, 10.7 K/9 and 5.18 K/BB rate over 646 1/3 career innings.  Oh has recorded 357 saves in his career, earning him the equally-awesome nicknames of “Stone Buddha” and “Final Boss.”  Oh pitched for South Korea in the 2006 and 2009 World Baseball Classics, earning a bronze and silver medal, respectively.

According to a two-year-old profile on the Global Sporting Integration homepage, Oh’s top pitch is the “stone fastball,” a rising four-seamer that can go as high as 97mph but is usually in the 92-94mph range.  Oh also possesses a slider (thrown anywhere between 80-89mph) and slow curveball (between 70-79mph).  The 5’10”, 202-pounder will turn 34 years old in July.

This isn’t the first time Oh has been linked to MLB, as there were rumors about a possible move to North America in each of the last two offseasons, though he wasn’t posted.  The Yankees, Pirates, Orioles and Mariners are among the teams known to have at least scouted Oh over the last two years.  While it’s probably unrealistic that Oh would be immediately handed a ninth-inning job his unfamiliarity with MLB, teams with unsettled closer situations could certainly see him as a candidate to win the job in Spring Training or later during the 2016 season.  Oh’s market will be helped by the lack of established closers available in free agency this winter.

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Uncategorized Seung-Hwan Oh

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West Notes: Utley, Kimbrel, Astros, Padres

By Zachary Links | October 18, 2015 at 5:46pm CDT

The suspension appeal for Dodgers second baseman Chase Utley has been delayed, reports the Associated Press.  Utley was suspended two games for his role in the play that broke Ruben Tejada’s leg in Game 2 of the NLDS.  However, with the Dodgers eliminated from the postseason, there is less urgency to conduct the appeal immediately.  This is the first notable example of a player being suspended for overzealously attempting to break-up a double play.  If the suspension is ultimately upheld, Utley will be suspended for the first two contest of 2016. The Dodgers hold a club option on Utley valued between $5MM and $11MM, based on days spent on the disabled list.

Here’s more from the West divisions..

  • Utley’s hearing will be postponed until later this year or possibly next spring, sources tell Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter links).  The CBA mandates that the hearing must take place within 14 days after the player has filed the appeal, but the hearings can be postponed upon mutual agreement between the parties involved.  The appeal will be heard by MLB’s John McHale, not an independent arbitrator.
  • A package of three Astros pitchers – Francis Martes, Josh Hader, and Joseph Musgrove – most likely would have the convinced the Padres to part with closer Craig Kimbrel, a baseball source told Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle. However, a third piece, thought to be Musgrove, was too rich for Houston’s blood.   The Padres could very well make Kimbrel available once again this winter.
  • Meanwhile, Astros GM Jeff Luhnow believes that his club has an opportunity to become an annual contender.  “We’re in a great position as an organization because our payroll’s going to continue to increase as revenues increase,” Luhnow said. “Our young players are going to continue to come through the system, and we have some assets. We’ve got some benefits, some advantages that other clubs maybe don’t have.  We’ve got one of the top farm systems in baseball still while having a young team at the major league level that’s already competing. That’s the ideal situation. Now, we want to maintain that for a long time to come.”
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Houston Astros Los Angeles Dodgers San Diego Padres Chase Utley Craig Kimbrel Francis Martes Joe Musgrove Josh Hader

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AL East Notes: A-Rod, Judge, Murphy, Rays

By Zachary Links | October 18, 2015 at 3:29pm CDT

Alex Rodriguez has been hired as a part of FOX Sports’ commentary team for the MLB postseason, and in a cross-promoting effort, A-Rod was welcomed on the NFL on FOX pregame show.  As a part of the festivities, Yankees third baseman tossed a football to analyst Jay Glazer, but he went a little high and the errant pass cracked a very expensive-looking monitor, as Justin Tasch of the New York Daily News writes.

After you enjoy that .gif once or twice, check out the latest from the AL East..

  • Chad Jennings of The Journal News looked at the Yankees’ options when it comes to right fielder Aaron Judge.  The 23-year-old obviously holds promise, but Jennings writes that Judge could headline a high-impact trade, possibly for a high-end starter or an established power hitter.  The Yankees balked at including Judge and other top prospects in their late July talks for Craig Kimbrel, so it remains to be seen whether they could have a change of heart this winter.
  • Daniel Murphy has a strong left-handed bat and defensive flexibility, which could help the Yankees, but the Yankees do already have Dustin Ackley and they have a bigger need for power hitting on the other side of the plate, Jennings writes.  Still, Jennings writes that it’s hard to ignore what Murphy is doing for New York’s other team.
  • Asdrubal Cabrera is expected to find a multi-year pact elsewhere but the Rays could bring back John Jaso or Grady Sizemore, just probably not both, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes.  Topkin estimates that Jaso will be in range for a two-year, $10MM deal and that Sizemore could come much cheaper at $1MM.  “They certainly are going to want to test the market and see what’s out there, and we will continue to stay in touch with them. At the same time we are managing a payroll so we have to fit within those constraints. There aren’t going to be any early decisions, I imagine,” baseball operations president Matt Silverman said.
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MLBTR Originals

By Zachary Links | October 18, 2015 at 1:20pm CDT

A look back at the original reporting and analysis found on MLBTR the last seven days:

  • A run at the likes of David Price or Zack Greinke would be uncharacteristic for the Twins and they should instead focus on repairing their dismal bullpen, Steve Adams writes.  Minnesota relievers combined for a 3.95 ERA that ranked 21st in baseball and averaged a league-worst 6.9 K/9. In terms of FIP, xFIP and SIERA, the Twins’ bullpen ranked 24th, 28th and 27th, respectively.
  • Expect plenty of action from the White Sox this winter, Tim Dierkes writes.
  • Jeff Todd believes that the Rockies should lock up Nolan Arenado on an extension this winter.  He also suggests that trading Carlos Gonzalez could help bolster Colorado’s pitching.
  • New Brewers GM David Stearns should not deviate too much from the team’s previous plan of action, Charlie Wilmoth writes.  Stearns doesn’t have a wealth of tremendous stockpile of quality trade chips anyway, so it’s probably best for him to focus on what he has in-house for the time being.
  • The Reds might not have seen themselves as world-beaters in 2015, but they didn’t expect things to go quite this poorly either, Charlie writes.  Charlie offers up some ideas for how the Reds can turn things around in 2016 and beyond.
  • Earlier today we rounded up the best from the baseball blogosphere in our weekly feature, Baseball Blogs Weigh In
  • Recently, MLB Trade Rumors launched a brand new official Instagram account:@TradeRumorsMLB.  Each day, we’re€™ sharing conversation-inspiring images about the hottest topics in baseball.  From there, we invite you to give us a like, weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section, and even share the link with a friend.  So, what are you waiting for?  If you don’€™t have an Instagram account, this is the perfect excuse to sign up and get one.  Follow us on Instagram today!
  • If you missed out on our two  MLBTR chats from this past week, you can get caught up with the transcripts here and here.
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MLBTR Originals

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Cafardo On Carter, Longoria, Strasburg

By Zachary Links | October 18, 2015 at 12:15pm CDT

Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe is concerned about the Red Sox’s lack of power, but top exec Dave Dombrowski doesn’t seem as worried.

“I think we have enough power,” Dombrowski said last week. “It depends on how the lineup shakes out. Personally, I like guys who can drive the ball into the gaps or hit the ball out of the ballpark. David [Ortiz] is a power guy. Hanley can do what I’m talking about. We don’t strike out in abundance. Our strikeouts are down compared to most clubs in the league. We’re very similar to Kansas City — not a power club.”

Still, in case DD changes his mind, Cafardo lists many intriguing power hitters that could be options for Boston this winter.  Here’s more from today’s column..

  • One major league source believes that the Astros could dangle first baseman Chris Carter as trade bait.  The 28-year-old (29 in December) ended up with a .294/.400/.529 batting line over twenty postseason plate appearances, continuing to build off of the .240/.328/.558 batting line and nine home runs that he put up over his final 120 plate appearances.  Despite that strong second half, his “unpredictable performance, coupled with high strikeouts” could have the Astros a more reliable alternative, Cafardo writes.  MLBTR projects Carter to earn $5.6MM in his second of four trips through arbitration.
  • Evan Longoria’s contract runs another seven years and his production hasn’t been as great as expected, but one AL GM sounds like he’d be pretty high on him still. “The contract he signed is long but reasonable,” the exec told The Boston Globe scribe. The Rays have repeatedly shot down speculation that they would shop the third baseman, but with the position being in such high demand, Cafardo wonders if they would keep an open mind.  The Angels, he says, would be a great fit for the 30-year-old.  Longoria’s contract with the club runs through 2022, which would be his age-36 season, plus the Rays have a club option on his services for 2023.
  • Cafardo is hearing “a lot of buzz” that the Nationals could make right-hander Stephen Strasburg available.  Recently, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reported that the Rangers and Nationals had trade talks involving Strasburg over the winter, though nothing ever came close to getting done.  The 27-year-old right-hander’s value is down due both to an inconsistent 2015 season and to the fact that he now has only one season left before hitting free agency.  Despite all of that, one has to imagine that the Nats would require significant return to part with the former No. 1 overall draft pick.
  • The Indians, Orioles, Mets, Tigers, and maybe even the Red Sox (thanks in part to the Allard Baird connection) could all be in the mix for Royals outfielder Alex Gordon this season, Cafardo writes.  Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com recently wrote that the Astros were a team to keep an eye on with regards to Gordon.
  • Cardinals outfielder/first baseman Brandon Moss is an interesting and affordable left-handed power option for a few clubs this winter, including the Red Sox, Cafardo writes.  Cafardo says the Orioles will be another team “likely” keeping an eye on Moss.  Moss earned $6.5MM in 2015 and the MLBTR projection model has him slated to earn $7.9MM in 2016.  The incumbent Cardinals would reportedly like to retain Moss, at least in a bench capacity.
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Baltimore Orioles Boston Red Sox Cleveland Guardians Detroit Tigers Houston Astros New York Mets Tampa Bay Rays Alex Gordon Brandon Moss Chris Carter Evan Longoria

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Heyman On Cespedes, Davis, Mattingly, Phillies

By Zachary Links | October 18, 2015 at 10:46am CDT

The Mets seem to love Yoenis Cespedes, and for good reason, but based on talks with Mets people, one rival executive told Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com that he would be “shocked” if the Mets retained him.  After all, Cespedes could be in line for a $150MM+ deal and the Mets are intent on keeping their rotation together for years to come.

The Mets’ other key free agent, Daniel Murphy,  has “made himself millions,” said one scout, in reference to his postseason heroics.  Even though his stock is trending upwards, however, one rival GM said he still thinks the Mets will pass on extending him the $15.8MM qualifying offer.

Here’s a look at more of the highlights from Heyman’s article..

  • The Orioles would appear to have a hard time hanging on to Chris Davis given their usual budget, but Peter Angelos has stated his interest in keeping the slugger and even with a potential ~$200MM asking price, re-signing him hasn’t been ruled out, Heyman writes.  In the most recent edition of Tim Dierkes’ 2016 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings,  Davis is ranked No. 4 ahead of several notable names, including fellow slugger Yoenis Cespedes.  Tim projects that Davis will be vying for a seven-year deal with a mid-$20MM AAV.
  • “Dodgers higher-ups are said to give Don Mattingly big credit for the way he’s handled the clubhouse,” Heyman writes.  It’s not certain that Mattingly will return in 2016, but Heyman notes that the approval of Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke doesn’t hurt his case.
  • Sources confirmed to Heyman that the Phillies have interviewed Royals assistant GM J.J. Picollo and Angels assistant GM Matt Klentak for their GM job.  Both men have been mentioned as candidates for the vacancy.
  • The Cubs love Kyle Schwarber’s bat but they’re still unsure where he’ll end up in the field.  Schwarber is currently slotted in the outfield and it remains to be seen whether he’ll eventually end up behind the plate.
  • Reds bench coach Jay Bell is “thought to have at least come up at some point” in the Marlins’ managerial search, but a source tells Heyman that he is “not in the mix” at this time.
  • Some Padres people could see team exec Moises Alou taking over as manager, but three of Alou’s friends told Heyman that they doubt he’d even want the job.  The known managerial candidates there are Diamondbacks minor-league manager Phil Nevin, former infielder Alex Cora, Diamondbacks coach Andy Green, Angels assistant GM Scott Servais, and ex-Twins manager Ron Gardenhire are said to be candidates for the position, but Heyman hears that Dusty Baker and ex-red Sox catcher Jason Varitek are not candidates at this time.
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Baltimore Orioles Chicago Cubs Kansas City Royals Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Dodgers New York Mets Philadelphia Phillies San Diego Padres Chris Davis Daniel Murphy Don Mattingly Dusty Baker J.J. Picollo Jason Varitek Kyle Schwarber Matt Klentak Moises Alou Yoenis Cespedes

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