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James Paxton Diagnosed With Partially Torn Calf

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3:10pm: Manager Alex Cora tells the Sox beat that Paxton is a “long shot” to return in 2024 (X link via MLB.com’s Ian Browne). The skipper added that Criswell, once healthy, will rejoin the rotation as the team’s fifth starter (X link via MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo).

2:30pm: Red Sox left-hander James Paxton tells reporters that he’s been diagnosed with a partial tear of his right calf muscle (X link via WEEI’s Rob Bradford). The veteran southpaw acknowledged that it could sideline him for the remainder of the year but will still try to rehab in an effort to make it back before the season concludes.

The Sox placed Paxton on the 15-day injured list with a calf strain yesterday. The term “strain” itself, by definition, indicates there is a degree of stretching or tearing, so today’s announcement isn’t a total surprise. That said, the fact that he’s possibly facing an absence of six-plus weeks indicates that it’s a tear of some note — the latest in a long line of injuries that have plagued the talented left-hander throughout his big league career.

Paxton, 35, spent the 2022-23 seasons in Boston. He missed the entire ’22 campaign due to Tommy John surgery but returned in 2023 to pitch 96 innings of 4.50 ERA ball with more promising strikeout and walk rates. The Dodgers signed him to a one-year, $7MM deal with incentives that could take the contract up to $13MM. He unlocked all of those incentives before being designated for assignment and traded to the Red Sox in return for minor league infielder Moises Bolivar.

The Sox hoped that Paxton would help shore up an injury-depleted starting rotation, but it’s now possible they’ll receive only three starts from him. Paxton notched a solid 4.09 ERA in his 11 innings following the trade but exited his third and potentially final start after recording just two outs. He was Boston’s lone veterean acquisition prior to the trade deadline, meaning the Sox will again be left to rely on the quartet of Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, Brayan Bello and Nick Pivetta, with scant depth behind the group. Righty Cooper Criswell has pitched well but has little track record and is currently out with Covid-19. Fellow righty Josh Winckowski has also made a handful of starts and could see further action down the stretch.

Paxton’s injury could open the door for young Quinn Priester, whom the Sox acquired from the Pirates in exchange for infield prospect Nick Yorke. Priester, a former first-round pick and top prospect, has yet to establish himself as a consistently viable big league starter. He’s logged a 6.46 ERA in 94 2/3 big league innings to this point in his young career, but the 23-year-old has generally fared well in the upper minors — an ugly two-game stint with the Sox’ Triple-A club in Worcester notwithstanding.

It’s a tenuous situation in Boston — one that would blow up in particularly bad fashion were one of Houck, Crawford or Pivetta to go down with an injury of note. Boston traded Chris Sale to the Braves in a regrettable offseason swap that netted infielder Vaughn Grissom. He was “replaced” by right-hander Lucas Giolito, who required season-ending internal brace surgery before the 2024 campaign began. Righty Garrett Whitlock had his own internal brace operation back in May. Depth arms like Chris Murphy and Bryan Mata have also been non-factors this season due to injury.

The Red Sox currently sit in third place in the AL East despite a strong 62-55 record. They’re only two games back in the American League Wild Card hunt, landing .001 percentage points ahead of the 63-56 Mariners but trailing the 65-54 Royals for the final Wild Card spot.

Angels Claim Nick Robertson, Brock Burke

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The Angels announced that they have claimed right-hander Nick Robertson off waivers from the Cardinals and left-hander Brock Burke off waivers from the Rangers. Both pitchers had been designated for assignment in recent days. The Halos had two vacancies on their 40-man roster and don’t need to make a corresponding move.

Each pitcher has shown some promise in past seasons but was struggling of late. They both got nudged off their respective roster spots but it makes sense for the Angels to take fliers on them. The Halos are out of contention and can use the remainder of the season to audition players for future roles, and had the open roster spots anyway.

Robertson, 26, pitched for the Dodgers and Red Sox in 2023. He tossed 22 1/3 innings in the majors with an unimpressive 6.04 earned run average but better underlying numbers. He struck out 24.5% of batters faced, gave out walks at an 8.5% clip and got grounders on 47.1% of balls in play. His .397 batting average on balls in play and 57.5% strand rate were both on the unlucky side, which is why he had a 3.88 FIP and 3.76 SIERA. He also had a strong 2.54 ERA in Triple-A last year with a huge 37.5% strikeout rate.

The Cards acquired him as one of the two pieces they got back from Boston in the Tyler O’Neill trade. He missed about a month of this season due to right elbow inflammation and has also been on optional assignment, only throwing 12 1/3 innings for the Cards. In that time, he had a 4.38 ERA, 26.9% strikeout rate and 3.8% walk rate. Oddly, he performed far worse in his 21 2/3 innings at the Triple-A level. He had a 7.48 ERA there, along with a 20.6% strikeout rate and 15.7% walk rate.

It’s not been an outstanding season so St. Louis decided to move on, but the Angels can see if he can find his way in a new environment. Robertson can be optioned for the rest of this year and will still have one option after that. He also currently has less than a year of service time, meaning he still has a ways to go before qualifying for arbitration or free agency.

Burke, 28, had a tremendous 2022 season. He tossed 82 1/3 innings for the Rangers that year with a 1.97 ERA, 27.4% strikeout rate and 7.3% walk rate. But his numbers backed up a bit last year, as he logged 59 2/3 frames with a 4.37 ERA and diminished 20.8% strikeout rate, though he did lower the walks to a rate of 3.6%.

This year, things have been even worse, which was partially self-induced on Burke’s part. He punched a wall in frustration after a poor outing and suffered a fracture in his right hand. Though it wasn’t his throwing hand, it still kept him on the IL for two months. Around that IL placement, he posted a 9.22 ERA in 13 2/3 innings and also spent about a month on optional assignment.

The results have obviously been trending in a bad direction and the wall-punching reflects poorly on him, but he can still be optioned for the rest of this year if the Angels so choose. He’ll be out of options next year but can be retained via arbitration through 2026.

Nationals To Select Orlando Ribalta

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The Nationals are calling up right-hander Orlando Ribalta, reports Andrew Golden of The Washington Post on X. Ribalta is not yet on the club’s 40-man roster but they have a couple of open spots at the moment. They will only have to make a corresponding move to create an active roster spot.

Ribalta, 26, was selected by the Nats in the 12th round of the 2019 draft. He has been climbing the minor league ladder since then, working exclusively as a reliever, with some very encouraging results here in 2024.

He started the year at Double-A and blew through that level by tossing 18 innings with just two earned runs allowed, leading to an ERA of 1.00. His 11.3% walk rate was on the high side but he counteracted that by his striking out a massive 45.1% of batters faced. He was then promoted to Triple-A and tossed 27 1/3 innings with a 3.62 ERA, 30.7% strikeout rate and 12.3% walk rate.

At the end of May, Eric Longenhagen and Travis Ice at FanGraphs ranked Ribalta as the #11 prospect in the system. They focused on his 6’7″ height, noting that players of that size sometimes take longer to get everything working and that Ribalta might be on the verge of a breakout, despite his relatively old age for a debut. The lack of control is clearly a concern but Longenhagen and Ice feel it’s possible that he’s still harnessing his stuff and could continue taking steps forward.

The Nationals have adopted a mantra of “I don’t care how fast you throw ball four” this year and will undoubtedly be focused on helping Ribalta continue to rein in his stuff. They are out of contention this year but can get a look at Ribalta down the stretch to see if he can be a part of their plans for next year and beyond.

Rays Recall Junior Caminero

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August 13: The Rays made it official today, recalling Caminero and optioning Mead as the corresponding move.

August 12: The Rays plan to recall top infield prospect Junior Caminero from Triple-A Durham before tomorrow’s game against the Astros, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. It’s his first promotion of the season. Caminero is already on the 40-man roster because the Rays initially called him up last September. They’ll only need to make an active roster transaction tomorrow.

Caminero, who turned 21 last month, appeared in seven games for Tampa Bay late last season. He hit his first big league homer but managed only a .278 on-base percentage. The Rays carried him on their Wild Card roster but didn’t get him into a postseason game. Tampa Bay had jumped Caminero directly from Double-A to the big leagues, so they unsurprisingly optioned him to Durham out of Spring Training this year.

The righty-hitting infielder would likely have gotten a call back to the majors sooner if not for a tough stretch of injury luck. Caminero had a pair of stints on the minor league injured list because of quad issues. He’s been limited to 53 games as a result, though he’s playing well when healthy. Caminero carries a .276/.331/.498 slash with 13 homers across 236 Triple-A plate appearances. That’s not overwhelming production in the overall league context, as Triple-A has become very favorable for hitters, even in the International League.

It’s a lot more impressive when considering that Caminero is still the age of a typical college junior. This is technically his age-20 season. He’s one of two players — along with Jackson Holliday — who have managed 200+ Triple-A plate appearances this year at that age. Jackson Chourio is the only 20-year-old to hit that threshold in the big leagues.

Not coincidentally, those players were arguably the top three prospects in the sport entering the season. Chourio has exhausted his prospect eligibility, but Holliday and Caminero respectively landed second and third on Baseball America’s updated Top 100 list. Evaluators continue to laud his massive power potential and overall offensive upside.

The Rays are in dire need of a lineup boost. They dropped tonight’s contest to the Astros 6-1 and have scored two or fewer runs in nine of their past 14 games. Only the A’s have scored fewer runs in August. Tampa Bay dropped back to .500 and sit 5.5 games back of the last Wild Card spot in the American League with three teams to surpass.

Their status as long shot contenders contributed to the front office’s decision to deal the likes of Randy Arozarena, Isaac Paredes, Zach Eflin, Jason Adam and Aaron Civale before the deadline. The Rays didn’t go full scorched earth — they held Yandy Díaz, Brandon Lowe and Pete Fairbanks most notably — but the Paredes and Arozarena subtractions make it easier to find a lineup spot for Caminero.

Topkin writes that the Rays are likely to play Caminero regularly at either third base or designated hitter. Tampa Bay has divided playing time at the hot corner between José Caballero and Curtis Mead recently. Mead has yet to hit in his young major league career. Caballero is a glove-first player who can move around the diamond. He’s capable of playing anywhere on the infield and Topkin suggests the Rays could get him some outfield work down the stretch.

Caminero picked up 10 days of major league service last year. He could accrue another 48 days of service time this year if he’s in the majors for good. That won’t be enough to impact his path to free agency or arbitration. He has already sufficient time in Triple-A this season to push his path to free agency back until at least the 2030-31 offseason. He will not qualify for arbitration until the 2027-28 winter at the earliest. Caminero could surpass the requisite 45 days on an MLB active roster to exhaust his rookie eligibility heading into next season, though. Doing so would render him ineligible for the Prospect Promotion Incentive in 2025, which would take the possibility of Caminero “earning” the Rays a bonus draft pick based on his Rookie of the Year or MVP finish off the table.

That’s a secondary consideration to getting Caminero his first real run against big league pitching. It’s a stretch to count on any young player to immediately carry a lineup, as some early-season struggles from Holliday and Chourio demonstrated. Even if Caminero doesn’t lead Tampa Bay on a furious playoff push, he’s a potential foundational player whom the Rays are hoping establishes himself as their answer at the hot corner in short order.

Astros Release Dylan Coleman

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The Astros have released right-hander Dylan Coleman after designating him for assignment last week, as indicated on the team’s transaction log at MLB.com. He’s now a free agent.

Coleman, 28 next month, was acquired from the Royals in a small December swap and has spent the bulk of the season in Triple-A Sugar Land. He pitched one scoreless big league frame for Houston back on April 3 but has limped to a more problematic 6.50 earned run average in 36 Triple-A frames. He’s been on a particularly rocky run of late, yielding 12 runs (11 earned) on eight hits and nine walks over his past 5 2/3 innings. That recent slide surely played into the decision to designate the former fourth-rounder (Padres, 2018) for assignment.

As recently as 2022, Coleman looked well on his way to establishing himself in the Royals’ big league bullpen. He made his MLB debut late in the 2021 season and in 2022 piled up 68 innings of work. In a total of 74 1/3 innings from ’21-’22, he notched a very sharp 2.66 ERA while fanning 24.8% of his opponents. His 12.1% walk rate was in need of improvement, but Coleman sat 97.7 mph with his heater, picked up swinging strikes at an impressive 13% clip, avoided hard contact (86.4 mph average exit velocity, 6.3% barrel rate, 35.9% hard-hit rate) and did a good job keeping the ball in the yard (0.61 HR/9).

That success deteriorated quickly in 2023, however. Coleman was rocked for an 8.84 ERA in 18 1/3 big league innings and walked 19 batters in that time. The command troubles continued in Triple-A Omaha, where he issued a free pass to a calamitous 21.8% of his opponents. The right-hander’s average fastball also plummeted from the prior season’s 97.5 mph to 95.2 mph in the majors (and 96.1 mph down the stretch in Triple-A).

All of those problems have persisted, if not worsened, following the change of scenery. Coleman walked 23.9% of his opponents with Sugar Land in the Astros organization, and Statcast measured his average heater in Triple-A this season at 95.7 mph — well shy of his 2021-22 levels. Whatever the reason for the downturn in command and velocity, the 2023-24 version of Coleman looks like a decidedly different pitcher than the reliever who showed quite a bit of promise from 2021-22.

Coleman’s prior track record, minimal acquisition cost — he’ll very likely require only a minor league deal to sign — and remaining club control (under two years of MLB service) should be enough to spark interest from a new club, whether that’s in the coming days/weeks or in the offseason.

BetterHelp 101: Understanding Online Therapy And How To Find Support (Sponsored)

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This is a sponsored post from BetterHelp.  As a BetterHelp affiliate, MLB Trade Rumors receives compensation from BetterHelp if you purchase products or services through the links provided.

As society’s knowledge of mental health grows, more treatment opportunities are available to a more significant number of people living with mental health challenges. One such option is online therapy, which allows individuals to receive mental health support from a device with an internet connection from any location.

What Is BetterHelp?

BetterHelp is an online therapy platform that works with a database of over 30,000 counselors, therapists, social workers, and psychologists from all 50 US states and some countries worldwide. This platform aims to break down barriers that often keep people from seeking help, such as financial burdens, a rural location with limited options for therapy, or a lack of accessibility in one’s area.

Understanding BetterHelp

BetterHelp may work differently than meeting with a traditional therapist. Below are some ways individuals can use online therapy via this service.

Signing Up

Signing up for BetterHelp often takes a few minutes. The initial sign-up process is a questionnaire which asks prospective clients about the following:

  • Reasons for seeking therapy and goals
  • The individual’s diagnosis or mental health challenge
  • Therapist gender preferences
  • Whether they’d like to meet with an LGBTQ+, Black, or Asian therapist
  • Preferences for individual, couples, or teen therapy
  • Gender, age, sexuality (optional), pronouns, and relationship status
  • Spiritual identity
  • Past experience in therapy
  • Intimacy challenges
  • Substance use habits

After filling out the questionnaire, which may take around five to ten minutes, prospective clients will be directed to fill out their name, email, and password. Then, they will be sent to the payment page, where they can choose a plan. After the payment has been processed, it often takes around 48 hours for a therapist to be matched with them.

Payment

BetterHelp plans are charged monthly for four weeks of therapy. The overall monthly cost covers four sessions with the therapist (one per week) and access to all of BetterHelp’s other resources, such as support groups and classes. Cost ranges from $65 to $100 per week, which can be more affordable than traditional therapy.

The match process

Therapists are matched with clients based on the client’s responses to the questionnaire upon signing up. The only limitation is that a therapist must be licensed to practice in the state the client lives in to be able to work with them. Clients can change providers at any time for any reason.

Using the platform

Individuals can log in through the app or website to use the BetterHelp platform. There, they can find their messages with their therapist, a journaling feature, options to schedule appointments, and extra resources. Through the settings section, clients can check their billing information, change their therapist, and edit their profile. Weekly sessions with a therapist can be held via phone, video, or live chat, all through the app or website.

Extra resources

BetterHelp offers resources that might not be offered by in-person providers, such as the following:

  • Weekly support groups
  • Online classes by mental health experts
  • Goal tracking options
  • Journaling and journal prompts
  • Worksheets

All features are included in the platform’s weekly price, so clients can access them without paying extra.

BetterHelp’s outreach

BetterHelp works with the broader community to offer support to non-profit organizations and individuals in need. They have given over 65 million dollars in discounts and financial aid to cover therapy for low-income individuals and donated over 95,000 months of free therapy to communities in need. BetterHelp partners with over 100 non-profit organizations.

Who might benefit from an online therapy platform?

Online therapy is often more flexible and convenient than in-person options. This option might benefit people with a busy schedule, such as parents, full-time workers, and athletes, who may not have the time to commute to an extra appointment. Many of the most evidence-based modalities, such as cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) and dialectical behavior therapy (DBT), are available online.

Is online therapy effective?

Since 2021, four out of ten US adults have used this option. One study reported that over 71% of participants believed it was more effective than face-to-face therapy. Another study found that online therapy often led to increased quality of life for clients with anxiety and depression and was more affordable.

Takeaway

By seeking support online, financial, locational, and accessibility barriers can be removed, allowing more people to receive the support they seek. To get started, consider working with a platform like BetterHelp.

Brad Keller Elects Free Agency

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Red Sox right-hander Brad Keller has elected to become a free agent, reports Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. As a player with five-plus years of big league service, Keller must consent to being optioned to the minors. He agreed to be optioned once earlier this season, but when the Red Sox sought to option him earlier this week, he instead exercised his right to become a free agent and seek a new opportunity.

Keller, 29, was a fixture in the Royals’ rotation from 2018-23. One of the more successful Rule 5 picks in recent memory — Kansas City plucked him out of the D-backs’ organization in the 2017 Rule 5 Draft — he enjoyed three sharp seasons as a starter for the Royals before struggling repeatedly from 2021-23, often due to injuries. After logging a 3.50 ERA in 360 1/3 innings for K.C. from 2018-20, Keller was roughed up for a 5.14 mark in the three subsequent seasons. Things went way off the rails in 2023, when he walked 45 hitters in 45 1/3 innings before going on the injured list and eventually undergoing thoracic outlet surgery.

The White Sox signed Keller to a minor league deal over the winter, and he had a brief run with Chicago before being designated for assignment and electing free agency. The Red Sox scooped him up in late May. After a tough debut in Baltimore, he settled in to pitch well over a string of eight long-relief appearances, but Boston sent him to the minors in late June (a move he approved at the time). He was recalled on Friday, surrendered three runs in four innings against the Astros on Saturday, and was optioned back to Triple-A Worcester on Monday — this time exercising his right to become a free agent.

Overall, Keller has pitched 37 1/3 innings between the ChiSox and BoSox this season. He’s logged a discouraging 5.30 ERA in that time, but his season isn’t without its silver linings. First and foremost, the disastrous command issues he displayed last season have come back down to Earth. In fact, Keller has not only put last year’s ghastly 21.3% walk rate behind him — he’s sporting a career-low 7.7% walk rate in his 37 1/3 frames. His 17.8% strikeout rate is below the league average but is right in line with the 17.4% mark he posted prior to his TOS-ruined 2023 season. Keller has seen the velocity on his four-seamer and sinker tick up slightly (though he’s also primarily been working in relief, so that’s not necessarily due to better health), and this year’s 9.1% swinging-strike rate is the second-best mark of his career (but still worse than league-average).

Down in Triple-A, things have gone better. He’s pitched a nearly identical slate of 38 innings there and has similar walk and strikeout rates to the ones he’s posted in the majors. However, he’s sporting a 4.26 ERA that’s more than a full run lower than his MLB ERA, due largely to the fact that he’s been able to avoid the long ball in a way he hasn’t at the MLB level (0.24 HR/9 in Triple-A, 1.93 HR/9 in MLB). In all likelihood, his home run rate in the majors is due for some positive regression, while his home run rate in the minors is likely due to swing the other direction.

For a team needing some late-season rotation depth or length in the bullpen, the veteran Keller could be a worthy flier. The Twins, Astros, Guardians, Mets, Braves and Padres are among the postseason hopefuls who have incurred injuries or are experiencing notable workload concerns among their current crop of starting pitchers.

The Opener: Caminero, Matthews, Chisholm, Marte

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Here are three things to watch for around baseball this Tuesday:

1. Rays to recall Junior Caminero:

The Rays plan to promote top prospect Junior Caminero before tonight’s game against the Astros. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times was the first to report the news.

Caminero, 21, is a consensus top-five prospect in the game. He made his MLB debut last September, going 8-for-34 with a .631 OPS in a seven-game cup of coffee. The promising young infielder returned to the minor leagues in 2024, and he has settled in quite nicely during his first stint at Triple-A. He has 13 home runs, an .828 OPS, and a 109 wRC+ in 53 games. What’s more, he has not skipped a beat since returning from his most recent stint on the IL due to quad trouble. The righty batter is hitting .304 with an .857 OPS and a 114 wRC+ in his last 19 games. That’s not overwhelming production, especially coming out of Triple-A, but Caminero has been playing well enough that it’s not hard to see why the Rays decided to give him another shot in the bigs.

Caminero will likely spend most of his time at third base and DH, and Tampa Bay will hope he can provide a boost to a struggling lineup. The Rays have lost six of their last 10 games, and their offense ranks 27th in the majors in runs scored since the trade deadline, averaging just 3.33 runs per contest.

2. Zebby Matthews to debut for Twins:

In more prospect news, the Twins plan to select one of their top pitching prospects to make his MLB debut tonight: Zebby Matthews will get the start against the Royals (per ESPN’s Jeff Passan). Matthews, 24, will join fellow rookies Simeon Woods Richardson and David Festa in the Twins’ rotation. Minnesota’s starting rotation was supposed to be one of the team’s biggest strengths entering the season, but injuries to Anthony DeSclafani, Chris Paddack, and, most recently, Joe Ryan – plus a poor performance from former top prospect Louie Varland – have forced the Twins to rely more heavily on their rookies than they expected to.

Matthews started the season at High-A and made his way up to Triple-A by mid-July. He’s sporting a 2.60 ERA in 97 innings and has demonstrated excellent strikeout skills and phenomenal control at every step along the way (30.5% strikeout rate, 1.8% walk rate). Minnesota might have preferred to give him a little more time at Triple-A – he has a 5.68 ERA over his first four starts with the St. Paul Saints – but Ryan’s injury forced the team’s hand. The Twins will need to make a corresponding move to open up a spot for Matthews on the 40-man roster.

3. MRIs scheduled for Jazz Chisholm Jr., Ketel Marte:

Yankees third baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. exited yesterday’s contest with a left elbow injury after diving awkwardly into home plate (per Greg Joyce of the New York Post). X-rays were negative, and Chisholm told reporters he wasn’t “super concerned” about the injury, but he will undergo an MRI today just in case (per Joyce). Chisholm has been a key player for New York over the past couple of weeks, batting .316 with a 1.062 OPS in 14 games. He has hit seven home runs and scored 13 times for the Bronx Bombers, and the Yankees have gone 9-5 since he joined the team.

Over in the NL, another star infielder will go for an MRI. Ketel Marte aggravated a prior injury in his left ankle last night and exited the game in the second inning (per Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports). Marte sat out on Monday due to his ankle, but he and the team presumed he would be ready to return after a day off. The D-backs have not provided much more information about the potential severity, but manager Torey Lovullo suggested today’s MRI was a precautionary measure (per Weiner). Marte is a dark-horse NL MVP candidate this season, so needless to say, he has been critical to Arizona’s success. He is batting .298 with 30 home runs, a .930 OPS, and a 152 wRC+. His 5.4 FanGraphs WAR ranks third in the National League.

Mariners Sign Víctor Robles To Extension

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The Mariners announced that they have signed outfielder Víctor Robles to a contract extension. It reportedly guarantees him $9.75MM over the next two years, which includes a $1.25MM signing bonus. He can earn an extra $2MM via bonuses/escalators, $1MM in each season, $500K for reaching 500 plate appearances and another $500K for 600 plate appearances. The Mariners will have a $9MM club option for 2027. Robles is represented by Republik Sports.

The deal is a demonstration of what a remarkable turnaround it’s been for Robles in the past two months. After years of struggles with the Nationals, he was designated for assignment at the end of May. They reportedly then explored trades with other clubs but couldn’t find any takers. Since Robles had enough service time to reject an outright assignment while keeping what remained of this year’s $2.65MM salary, the Nats simply released him.

The Mariners took a shot on him, which essentially came with no risk. The Nats were still on the hook for most of his salary, leaving the Mariners to pay just the prorated league minimum, with that amount subtracted from what the Nats pay.

For that minimal investment, the Mariners have already been hugely rewarded. In 42 games for Seattle, he has three home runs and a batting line of .303/.372/.450. That’s 39% better than league average offense, per wRC+. His .349 batting average on balls in play is definitely on the high side but he’s only striking out at a 16.3% rate and that would be strong offense even with a bit of regression.

That’s especially true because Robles is capable of providing value even when he doesn’t have the bat in his hands. He has stolen 12 bases in 12 tries since coming to Seattle and provided competent glovework in the outfield, playing all three positions on the grass. FanGraphs calculates that he has been worth 1.2 wins above replacement already in his brief stint with the Mariners.

That has been especially valuable for a club that has struggled to generate offense this year. They have arguably the best pitching staff in the league, with their team-wide 3.42 tops in the majors, but the lack of punch at the plate has kept them fighting for their lives. They are 63-56, effectively even with the Astros in the division but 2.5 games back of a Wild Card spot.

Robles was an impending free agent but the Mariners have seen enough that they are willing to keep him around for another two and maybe three years. Of course, they’re not just making this decision based on the 42 games he has played since changing uniforms. During his time with the Nats, he was once considered one of the best prospects in the sport. He was on Baseball America’s top 100 list in four straight seasons from 2016 to 2019, getting as high as fifth overall in 2018.

He seemed to be delivering on that prospect hype in 2019, helping the Nats win the World Series that year. His .255/.326/.419 batting line was a bit below par, translating to a 92 wRC+, but he was able to produce 3.7 fWAR thanks to his defense and speed. He stole 28 bases on the year, racking up 25 Defensive Runs Saved and 21 Outs Above Average. Given that he was only 22 years old at the time, it seemed fair to expect that he was only scratching the surface of the player he was about to become.

Unfortunately, the opposite happened, as his performance dropped significantly for the next few years. For the 2020-22 seasons, he hit just .216/.291/.306 for a wRC+ of 66. He did spend some time on the injured list but that was a significant sample size of 965 plate appearances.

Despite those struggles, the Nats stuck by him, continually tendering him contracts as he reached arbitration. He seemed to be getting things back on track last year, as he hit .299/.385/.364 for a wRC+ of 112, but he was limited to just 36 games on the season because of back spasms in the lumbar spine. Nonetheless, the Nats agreed to the aforementioned $2.65MM salary for 2024, hoping that Robles could both stay healthy and put his past struggles behind him. But this year got out to a shaky start, as Robles missed about a month due to a left hamstring strain and hit just .120/.281/.120 in 14 games for Washington before they decided to cut him loose.

The Mariners have been rewarded with the version of Robles that the Nats thought they had many times in the past. The combination of his past prospect pedigree and his recent performance clearly has given the M’s some hope that Robles can keep producing for a few more years. There is obviously some risk there based on how poorly he has performed at times in the past, but they are also not sticking their neck out with vast sums of money.

The guarantee works out to less than $5MM per year, which is fairly modest in baseball terms. Even if Robles takes a step back at the plate and is merely a speed-and-defense fourth outfielder, that’s not a drastic waste of resources. And if he can continue to keep hitting, then there’s plenty of upside for the M’s.

For Robles, he is perhaps leaving a bit of money on the table here, but it’s also understandable that he would want to lock in some significant earnings. If he had continued to perform at this level for the rest of the season, he likely would have earned a larger guarantee than the one he’s agreeing to now. But as he surely knows from the winding path of his career, it’s not a guarantee that it will continue to go so well. After all, it was just two months ago that all the clubs in the league passed on the chance to acquire him while he’s making a fairly modest salary. If Robles had suffered another injury or simply struggled at the plate down the stretch, he may not have been able to secure a guarantee of even this size.

He also still has future earning power that he could tap into if he keeps performing. Due to debuting at such a young age, he’s still just 27 years old. This deal will cover his age-28 and -29 seasons with the option giving the M’s a chance to control him through his age-30 season. If he’s able to keep up his all-around performance through the course of this contract, he could line himself up for a more sizable deal at that point. If the option is triggered and he hits those escalators, he will have already banked $20.75MM off this deal.

The Mariners also get a headstart on bolstering their future outfield. They already have Julio Rodríguez locked in for many years and the recently-acquired Randy Arozarena is controllable via arbitration through 2026. Mitch Haniger has one more year on his deal after this and the club also has pre-arb guys like Luke Raley and Dominic Canzone in the mix, though Raley has been getting a lot of playing time at first base lately. Justin Turner figures to be in the designated hitter spot a lot for the rest of this year but is an impending free agent.

It’s arguably a crowded mix but president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto is one of the game’s most active decision makers and could deal from this group in the offseason if the opportunity presents itself. For now, he’s locked in a player who is perhaps breaking out, but without breaking the bank. Robles, meanwhile, has secured himself a really nice bit of financial security that didn’t seem possible just a few short weeks ago.

Yancen Pujols first reported that the two sides had agreed to an extension with a $9.75MM guarantee (Spanish-language link on X). Jorge Castillo of ESPN had the two-year length, club option and $2MM in bonuses/escalators (X link). Daniel Kramer of MLB.com provided the specifics of the bonuses/escalators as well as the signing bonus (X link).

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