After reports emerged last night that bidding for the services for free agent superstar Juan Soto could reach beyond the $700MM threshold, that possibility appears to have now come to pass. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported this evening that both the Yankees and Mets have recently pushed their offers to the $710-730MM range as the slugger’s free agency nears its conclusion. Heyman suggests that while it’s “believed” that the Mets have placed the higher bid of the two New York clubs, the deals appear to be within the same range. He goes on to add that there’s been no indication of the Red Sox, Blue Jays, or Dodgers being eliminated from the Soto sweepstakes to this point despite the record-setting offers from both New York clubs.
The 26-year-old phenom has long been expected to easily beat the record for net present value Shohei Ohtani’s megadeal with the Dodgers set last winter, which is estimated to be in the range of $461MM after accounting for the pact’s heavy deferrals. That said, it’s still somewhat shocking that the bidding for Soto has soared high enough that beating the $700MM guarantee Ohtani received last winter before factoring in deferred money is on the table. It’s possible that Soto’s deal could include some deferred money of its own, of course, but even with that possibility in mind it seems increasingly likely that he’ll shatter not only expectations entering the offseason but all previous precedents for guaranteed and annual money for MLB contracts.
Soto is in position to shatter records for a reason, of course. The youngster is particularly attractive to clubs given the fact that he’s marketing his age-26 season in free agency this winter. That extreme youth is uncommon in free agency, especially for top talent, and it allowed right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto to secure a record-breaking deal for starting pitchers last winter despite having never thrown a single pitch in MLB. By contrast, Soto is a four-time All Star and two-time MVP finalist who has never been less than 43% better than league average at the plate by measure of wRC+ during his career to this point. Soto’s combination of youth and track record hasn’t been seen in the majors since Alex Rodriguez’s free agency more than two decades ago, and in that time teams have only grown to value youth even more highly.
Per Heyman’s report, all five known finalists for Soto’s services remain in the mix to land the superstar, who is generally expected to make his decision within the next day or two. Heyman suggests that the Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Dodgers, and Blue Jays have all offered Soto at least $600MM, with the Dodgers’ offer coming in as the lowest of the five by a substantial amount. Beyond that, though, Heyman notes that the other four clubs have made offers that are “believed” to be relatively close to each other, and it’s unclear which of those four clubs has made the highest bid to this point. What’s more, Heyman suggests that Soto won’t necessarily choose the highest bidder, though it’s unclear what might motivate Soto to take a lesser offer. The Mets and Yankees have generally been viewed as the favorites to land Soto by the industry throughout his free agency, but whether that perception aligns with his actual preferences remains a mystery. The Red Sox, for their part, reportedly pushed for an additional meeting with Soto’s camp earlier this week, though it’s unclear if that request was or will be granted before the star makes his decision.
