Offseason Outlook: St. Louis Cardinals
Check out all the entries in the 2015-16 Offseason Outlook series here.
After racking up more regular-season wins than any other team in 2015, the Cardinals are set to contend again, as they usually do. First, though, they’ll need to address Jason Heyward‘s impending free agency.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Adam Wainwright, SP: $57.5MM through 2018
- Matt Carpenter, 3B: $46MM through 2019 (plus 2020 club option)
- Yadier Molina, C: $30MM through 2017 (plus 2018 mutual option)
- Jhonny Peralta, SS: $22.5MM through 2017
- Matt Holliday, OF: $18MM through 2016 (plus 2017 club option)
- Lance Lynn, SP: $15MM through 2017
- Jon Jay, OF: $6.225MM through 2016
- Jordan Walden, RP: $3.75MM through 2016 (plus 2017 club option)
Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections by MLB Trade Rumors)
- Brandon Moss (5.160) – $7.9MM
- Peter Bourjos (5.062) – $1.8MM
- Steve Cishek (4.143) – $7.1MM
- Tony Cruz (4.105) – $1.0MM
- Trevor Rosenthal (3.058) – $6.5MM
- Matt Adams (3.033) – $1.5MM
- Seth Maness (2.154) – $1.2MM
- Non-tender candidates: Moss, Bourjos, Cishek, Cruz
Contract Options
- Jaime Garcia, SP: 2016 club option for $11.5MM with $500K buyout (exercised). The Cardinals also have a $12MM 2017 option with a $500K buyout
- Jonathan Broxton, RP: 2016 club option for $9MM with $1MM buyout (declined)
Free Agents
- Jason Heyward, John Lackey, Matt Belisle, Randy Choate, Mark Reynolds, Carlos Villanueva
After winning 100 games and then losing in the NLDS, the Cardinals will try to fly even faster into the wind this offseason. Whatever solutions they come up with to their immediate roster issues, it will be difficult for them to continue to perform at such a toweringly high level. Of course, they should still be a strong team. The problem of how best to maintain a 100-win team is a great one to have.
The possibility of losing Heyward looms large. Heyward, acquired last winter after the tragic death of Oscar Taveras, had the kind of season he usually has — his offensive numbers were, on the surface, a bit disappointing, but he contributed all sorts of value with his fielding and baserunning, frequently changing games with his glove and arm. His youth and broad skill set will make him a mint in free agency, although he could receive somewhat less per season than the usual top free agent might. MLBTR’s Jeff Todd recently predicted Heyward would receive a ten-year, $200MM contract, perhaps with an opt-out. Any contract at or near that level is a risk, and the Cardinals will have plenty of competition, but they could certainly bid for Heyward at that price, given their modest payroll commitments in 2017 and beyond.
If Heyward signs elsewhere, the Cardinals can be flexible. They could pursue a lower-cost free agent outfielder, but it’s more likely they’ll simply go with veterans Matt Holliday and Jon Jay plus some combination of young outfielders Randal Grichuk, Stephen Piscotty and Tommy Pham, all of whom had surprisingly strong seasons in 2015. The Cardinals could then spend their available funds on other positions.
One of those positions could be starting pitcher, but likely only if they’re acquiring a top-flight player. The Cardinals have Lance Lynn, Michael Wacha and a healthy Adam Wainwright under control for 2016, along with Jaime Garcia, whose option they’ve already decided to exercise after a successful comeback season. They also have Carlos Martinez, although a season-ending shoulder strain makes his short-term future somewhat uncertain. Their depth options, like Tyler Lyons and Tim Cooney, are also fairly good ones, and top prospect Alex Reyes could potentially enter the picture late in the season. So despite the impending departure of John Lackey, there’s little reason for the Cardinals to pursue an innings-eater type.
They could, however, conceivably aim higher — they’ve already been mentioned as a possible bidder for this winter’s top free agent, David Price. Pursuing a free agent like Price (or Heyward, for that matter) does seem a bit tricky from a budgetary perspective, at least in the short term; the Cardinals’ Opening Day payroll was $122MM in 2015, and between their $90MM or so in existing commitments for 2016 and arbitration-year salaries on top of that, they don’t appear to have much room for a highly paid player. Given their very limited future commitments ($65MM in 2016, $33MM in 2017, and practically nothing after that), though, it would seem possible for the Cardinals to increase their payroll somewhat for 2016 with the understanding that they can limit their spending in the future if they need to.
Besides, if the Cardinals were to decide to pursue top free agents, they would have ways to trim payroll. In addition to non-tendering Brandon Moss, Peter Bourjos and Steve Cishek (all of whom had subpar 2015 seasons), the Cardinals could conceivably clear payroll space by trading someone like Garcia, especially if they sign a top starter. Garcia had a brilliant comeback season in 2015 and is well worth his option, but the Cardinals could look at his injury history and figure they might be able to get more certainty by spending their money differently. The Cardinals have also already declined Jonathan Broxton’s option, and they could also attempt to save a bit by non-tendering light-hitting backup catcher Tony Cruz.
The Cardinals could also potentially upgrade at first base, particularly if Heyward leaves. They were 25th in the big leagues in home runs last season, with 137, and first could represent one way to address that problem. Chris Davis would represent a huge improvement, and Korean slugger Byung-Ho Park might be a lower-cost option. Of the two, Park might be somewhat more likely — the Cards bid on Jung-Ho Kang last offseason, and GM John Mozeliak said at the time that the organization was interested in delving further into the market for Asian players. If the Cardinals do re-sign Heyward, they could pass on first base upgrades and have Piscotty spell Matt Adams there on occasion, particularly against lefties. Adams could also become a trade candidate in that scenario — he didn’t hit well in 2015, but a team with a bigger hole at first (or a need for DH) could have interest in taking a flyer on his bat.
Trevor Rosenthal, Kevin Siegrist and Seth Maness will all presumably be back in the bullpen. The Cardinals can also hope for more from Jordan Walden, who missed most of 2015 with a shoulder injury. A variety of other pitchers, including Sam Tuivailala, Miguel Socolovich and Lyons, could also contribute. It wouldn’t be a surprise to the Cardinals add a lefty to complement Siegrist, though, particularly if they plan on saving Lyons to start if needed. Lefty Randy Choate is a free agent, and the Cards might benefit from adding someone who they trust a little more against righties. Someone like Antonio Bastardo or Tony Sipp would make sense, although those pitchers figure to be in demand this offseason, with a relatively thin group of lefty relievers on the market. If the Cardinals can’t find someone from outside the organization, minor league southpaw Dean Kiekhefer could be a possibility. The Cards will also likely at least consider re-signing righty Carlos Villanueva, who was effective in multi-inning stints last season, although the need for him would be lessened somewhat by replacing Choate with a lefty capable of pitching full innings.
The Cards will also need to address their bench somewhat. They have solid outfield depth, but they’re a bit thin on catching and infielders. At catcher, Cody Stanley would probably have been the next man up if Cruz departs, but he’ll be serving an 80-game PED suspension for much of next season. The Cardinals can also use a somewhat stronger backup catcher than they’ve had recently, too, with Yadier Molina getting older (he’s now 32) and coming off a subpar offensive season. And now that the Cardinals have outrighted Pete Kozma, they only have Greg Garcia as an obvious backup to Jhonny Peralta and Kolten Wong, unless they want to push Cuban shortstop Aledmys Diaz to the big leagues after only 58 Triple-A plate appearances (or use minor league vet Dean Anna, who remains on their 40-man roster even though they showed little interest in him last season).
Beyond the roster tweaking, though, a key problem for the Cardinals this season is how to maintain, or even approximate, the amazing pitching results they got in 2015. The Cards’ 2.82 team ERA ran a full run behind their xFIP and about three quarters of a run behind their SIERA. They held batters to a .275 wOBA with runners on base and .266 with runners in scoring position. Each mark was at least 20 points better than their nearest competitor. They left 79.4% of runners on base, more than four percentage points better than the next-best team. Ed Feng of the Power Rank calculates that the Cardinals saved 105 runs more than expected via the clustering (or lack thereof) of their opponents’ hits.
The Cardinals gave about a third of that cluster luck back on offense. Still, as Ben Lindbergh of Grantland suggested in August, it’s difficult to find reasons that fully explain how the Cardinals’ pitchers got such great results last season. It’s probably unwise, therefore, to expect them to do so again in 2016, just as the Cards’ 2014 offense didn’t maintain anything resembling the amazing .330 average with runners in scoring position they’d posted the previous year.
Obviously, though, there isn’t much the Cardinals can do to address that problem other than to attempt to upgrade their roster the way they normally would. And, of course, they won 100 games last year, and it generally takes some good fortune to be that successful, even if you’re great. The Cardinals could win ten fewer games in 2016 and still be competitive. If they’re able to re-sign Heyward, or compensate for his departure with additions elsewhere, they should be right in the thick of the NL Central race yet again.
Mets Notes: Cespedes, Murphy, Johnson, Reed, d’Arnaud, Blevins
While the scorching post-trade production of Yoenis Cespedes had many Mets fans hoping the team would be able to find a way to re-sign him. However, a team official tells ESPN New York’s Adam Rubin that while the Mets will embark on a modest pursuit of Cespedes once he hits the open market, it’s highly likely that the slugger will sign elsewhere this winter. Cespedes hit a strong .287/.337/.604 with 17 homers in 249 plate appearances for the Mets, but a shoulder injury slowed his production late in the season, as did a fastball to the left hand in a Sept. 30 at-bat against the Phillies. Slow finish aside, Cespedes probably still has a six-year deal awaiting him on the open market, and it’s tough to see the Mets outbidding the rest of the field based on their history in free agency.
A few more notes pertaining to the NL Champs…
- Daniel Murphy professed how much he’s enjoyed being a member of the Mets to Newsday’s Marc Carig, but the team isn’t likely to match the four-year offers he’s expected to command on the open market, Carig writes. The Mets do feel that Murphy has fundamentally improved as a hitter, he continues, but with a possible long-term option in Dilson Herrera, Murphy is expected to depart. Sources tell Carig that the Mets could look to re-sign Kelly Johnson to serve as a bridge to Herrera, though, especially since Johnson could spell David Wright at third base on occasion.
- Rubin tweets that it “sounds like” the Mets will retain Addison Reed via arbitration this winter and deploy him in a setup capacity next year. Reed is projected by MLBTR to earn $5.7MM in arbitration, though Rubin’s tweet seems to indicate that the Mets are comfortable with that range. He notes that the team still could use an additional late-inning arm.
- There’s a “growing thought” within the organization that it would be beneficial for Travis d’Arnaud to learn a second position to expand his versatility, Carig tweets. I’d imagine that would entail corner outfield or first base, though d’Arnaud has virtually no experience at either position. There was some talk in 2014 and earlier this season about d’Arnaud getting some reps in left field, and it seems that conversation could again resurface.
- Carig also tweets that of all the Mets’ free agents, Johnson and left-hander Jerry Blevins are the only two that are “expected” to return. Blevins tossed just four innings for the Mets this year before suffering a fractured arm on a come-back line drive to the mound. He was working his way through rehab when he slipped and fell off a curb, re-fracturing in the arm and resulting in surgery. GM Sandy Alderson picked up Blevins in exchange for outfielder Matt den Dekker last spring and saw the lefty retire the first 15 batters he faced before suffering the initial injury. With left-handed relief still an area of need and Blevin’s asking price likely on the low side, it makes sense that the Mets would want to bring him back.
- MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo runs down the club’s offseason position by position, noting that the Mets will probably cut ties with twice-suspended Jenrry Mejia this winter and also speculating on Colby Rasmus and Denard Span as potential fits in center field. Either would give Juan Lagares a platoon partner, though I personally wonder if the club would at least consider the possibility of running with Span or even Dexter Fowler full-time, then trading Lagares or using him as a fourth outfielder while his yearly salary is still modest. That, of course, is just speculation on my behalf though.
Padres Exercise Option On Benoit, Decline Barmes’ Option
7:42pm: Benoit’s option is actually for $7.5MM and carried a $1MM buyout as opposed to $8MM with a $1.5MM buyout, according to MLB.com’s Corey Brock. Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune tweets that the buyout on the option could’ve escalated based on games finished, but the acquisition of Craig Kimbrel, of course, kept that from happening.
6:17pm: The Padres announced (Twitter link) that they’ve exercised their $8MM club option on right-hander Joaquin Benoit and declined their $2MM club option on Clint Barmes. Benoit’s option came with a $1.5MM buyout, meaning the decision essentially boiled down to whether or not the club valued him on a one-year, $6.5MM contract. Barmes will be paid a $200K buyout instead of the $2MM value of his option. I explored both situations recently while previewing the Padres’ offseason, noting that these outcomes were likely.
Benoit, 38, posted a stellar 2.34 ERA with 8.7 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 and a 46.3 percent ground-ball rate in 65 1/3 innings for the Friars in 2015. Detractors will note that both his strikeout and walk rates trended in the wrong direction, and his velocity declined a bit, while ERA estimators like FIP, xFIP and SIERA all feel that Benoit’s ERA is due to rise into the mid-3.00s. However, Benoit’s been able to maintain better-than-average marks in BABIP and strand rate, helping him to continually outperform said metrics.
As I noted in the above-linked offseason outlook, by exercising Benoit’s option, the Padres are effectively raising their payroll north of their 2015 Opening Day mark despite the fact that they have quite a bit of work to do this winter. Between Benoit, Matt Kemp, James Shields, Jedd Gyorko, Melvin Upton and Alexi Amarista, the team already has $82.25MM committed to the 2016 payroll. That doesn’t include significant arbitration raises to Tyson Ross, Andrew Cashner, Yonder Alonso, Derek Norris and Will Middlebrooks and league-minimum players to round out the roster, which could bring the total to as much as $112MM.
Barmes, on the other hand, batted .232/.281/.353 in 224 plate appearances with the Padres in 2015. Of course, offense has never been Barmes’ calling card; he’s been best-known for his defensive prowess at shortstop for much of his career. Defensive metrics such as Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating indicated that the 36-year-old’s glovework took a step backward this year, but his strong track record in that regard should lead to some interest on the free agent market this winter as Barmes prepares for his age-37 season.
Tigers Decline Nathan’s Option, Add Cessa To 40-Man Roster
The Tigers announced on Tuesday that they’ve declined their $10MM option on right-hander Joe Nathan and added pitching prospect Luis Cessa to the 40-man roster. Nathan, who underwent Tommy John earlier this year, will receive a $1MM buyout. Nathan said back in April that he planned to undergo the lengthy rehabilitation process that came with the surgery with the goal of again pitching in the Major Leagues.
Nathan was a high-profile signing by now-former Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski prior to the 2014 season. Detroit signed the longtime Twins closer to a two-year, $20MM contract in spite of his advanced age, but Nathan was unable to replicate the All-Star form that he showed with the Twins or with the Rangers. Nathan posted a 4.81 ERA in his age-39 season in 2014 and pitched just one-third of an inning in 2015 before going down with a torn tendon and ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow. The 40-year-old seems like a candidate for a minor league deal this winter, but he could conceivably wait to sign until midseason, when he’s further along in his rehab, in hopes of securing a big league deal.
As for Cessa, the 23-year-old was one of two right-handed pitching prospects acquired from the Mets in exchange for Yoenis Cespedes. (Michael Fulmer was the other.) Cessa would’ve been Rule 5 eligible this winter and needed to be added to the 40-man roster in order to be protected, so it was only a matter of time as to when his contract was selected by the Tigers. Cessa split his age-23 season between the Double-A and Triple-A levels, logging a 4.52 ERA with 7.7 K/9 against 2.3 BB/9 in 139 1/3 innings. He currently ranks sixth among Tigers farmhands, per MLB.com.
Brewers Exercise Adam Lind’s Option
The Brewers have exercised their option on first baseman Adam Lind, the club announced. He’ll receive $8MM for the 2016 season.
That move has long been expected, as Lind is fresh off of a strong campaign in his first year in Milwaukee after coming over in exchange for Marco Estrada. All told, it’s been a nice career stretch for Lind, who owns a .291/.364/.478 slash in 1,411 pate appearances over that span.
Though Lind’s contract is on the books for now in Milwaukee, he could end up as a trade candidate. His name has come up often as a first base/DH option for teams that would prefer to avoid long commitment. While he’s limited against southpaws, the left-handed hitter has been rather consistently devastating to righties.
Option Decisions: Qualls, Ryan, Bailey, Ziegler, Collmenter
We’ll cover the day’s major option decisions in separate posts, but here are some of the relatively less impactful calls being made by teams around the league:
- The Astros have declined the option of right-hander Chad Qualls, the club announced. He’ll receive a $250K buyout rather than the $3.5MM option price. Qualls, 37, worked to a 4.38 ERA over 49 1/3 innings last year in Houston, with 8.4 K/9 against 1.9 BB/9 and a 59.9% groundball rate. That earned run mark was unlucky, if you believe metrics like FIP (3.52), xFIP (2.99), and SIERA (2.60). There ought to be no shortage of clubs interested in the veteran, who functioned as Houston’s closer at times in 2014. His peripherals give some cause for optimism, though he did lose a tick on his fastball and allowed a 17.1% HR/FB rate.
- Also announcing some option decisions were the Yankees, who say that infielder Brendan Ryan has exercised his $1MM player option. The 33-year-old has not been terribly productive since coming to New York, taking just 289 plate appearances and compiling a poor .201/.244/.271 batting line over his three years with the team. Ryan is valued most for his glove, of course. He could find himself lacking a roster spot at some point, depending upon how the team proceeds in filling its second base and reserve infield roles.
- Meanwhile, the Yankees declined their $2MM option on righty Andrew Bailey. He had returned to the club after it declined a 2015 option, and his new deal also apparently contained such a provision. While Bailey did make it back to the big leagues for the first time since 2013, he struggled with his command, though that was in a sample size of less than ten innings. The righty was able to put up rather dominant numbers in the minors during his rehab stint. As Chad Jennings of LoHud.com notes on Twitter, the club can still control Bailey through arbitration. MLBTR projects him to take home a $900K salary through that process, if he’s tendered.
- The Diamondbacks have officially exercised their option on righty Brad Ziegler. The 36-year-old was even better than usual last year. He spun 68 innings of 1.85 ERA ball, even as his strikeout rate dropped to just 4.8 K/9. Metrics like FIP and xFIP were less impressed, but that’s always been the case with Ziegler, whose sidearmed sinker/curve/change mix produced a ridiculous 72.8% groundball rate this year. Long a quality set-up man, Ziegler moved seamlessly into the closer’s role when Addison Reed faltered. He’ll earn $5.5MM next year in his final season of control, which is quite an attractive price given his track record.
- Likewise, the Diamondbacks picked up their option on Josh Collmenter. His drop in strikeouts is arguably more concerning, particularly as it came in a year in which he spent a lot of time working from the bullpen (in addition to making 12 starts). The 29-year-old threw 121 total innings, posting a solid 3.79 ERA. But with his K rate dipping below five-per-nine and a groundball rate that typically lands in the mid-thirty-percent range, there’s concern going forward. Collmenter will take home $1.825MM, which is affordable enough that the team can roll the dice on a rebound. He is also controllable for 2017 via mutual option.
MLBTR Chat: Contract Predictions, Cubs, Gordon
Click here to read a transcript of today’s live chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams.
Phillies Claim Dan Otero
The Phillies have claimed righty Dan Otero off waivers from the Athletics, Philadelphia announced. He represents the club’s first 40-man acquisition under new GM Matt Klentak.
Otero, a 30-year-old reliever, had been a highly-productive contributor in Oakland over the 2013-14 campaigns. The control artist put up a cumulative 2.01 ERA in 125 2/3 innings in that span, with 5.2 K/9 against 1.5 BB/9. He was used particularly heavily in ’14, when he made 72 appearances and logged 86 2/3 frames.
Though he maintained that K:BB ratio in 2015, however, Otero was torched for 35 earned runs in 46 2/3 innings. There was some poor luck in the BABIP (.354) and strand rate (59.5%) arenas, but the righty also saw his groundball rate drop to below 50% while allowing a 14.9% HR/FB rate.
Philly apparently saw an opportunity to grab a potentially useful pen piece at a minimal commitment, and took advantage of their prime waiver position to do so. Because he spent time working at Triple-A last year, where he was rather effective, Otero missed a chance to qualify for arbitration as a Super Two.
Free Agent Notes: Leake, Yankees, Young, Iwakuma
The Giants have yet to talk contract with free agent righty Mike Leake, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle reports (Twitter links). That doesn’t mean that he won’t be a target, of course, but Schulman explains that it does suggest he’ll be fully testing the market before making a decision. Generally, says Schulman, San Francisco has indicated it will be more tight-lipped about its pursuit of pitching than it was last offseason, when the club openly chased Jon Lester.
Here are some more notes as the free agent market begins to take shape:
- While the Yankees might not go after the biggest free agent names, the club could be active in the second base market, MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch writes. New York has a variety of in-house options to be considered there, of course, but will also look at players such as Daniel Murphy, Ben Zobrist, and Howie Kendrick, per the report.
- It remains to be seen how active the Yankees will be, but adding to the rotation figures to be one area of focus. Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com writes (in a broader notes column) that Jeff Samardzija and Wei-Yin Chen are two names that have come up in internal discussions.
- The Royals have interest in a reunion with righty Chris Young, Heyman adds. The 36-year-old delivered plenty of value to the club after signing late in the offseason last year, of course, though he’ll figure to draw wider interest after contributing 123 1/3 frames of 3.06 ERA pitching in a swingman capacity.
- New Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto has made clear that bringing back Hisashi Iwakuma is a priority for the club, and Bob Dutton of the Seattle Times explains that his status will be important for determining the rest of the club’s winter. Re-signing the veteran would allow the team to approach the rest of the rotation market with patience while focusing elsewhere. If not, Seattle may be forced to spend more in adding another starter.
Red Sox Exercise Option On Clay Buchholz
The Red Sox have exercised their club option on righty Clay Buchholz, the club announced. He’ll cost the club $13MM next year and also comes with one more season of control via option (at $13.5MM).
Buchholz, 31, endured a rough 2014 campaign but bounced back nicely last season, posting a 3.26 ERA over 113 1/3 innings with 8.5 K/9 against 1.8 BB/9. That performance largely made the option decision an easy one, except that — as the innings tally would indicate — the righty again experienced injury issues.
It appears that Boston feels comfortable with the status of Buchholz’s right elbow. He dealt with a flexor strain late in the year, but the club did have a good chance to watch him work as he contemplated a return. Though Buchholz ultimately did not make it back to active duty, he obviously showed enough.
There’s at least some possibility that the Red Sox will entertain trade offers for Buchholz, as Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe discussed yesterday. Boston has a lot of rotation options, even as they consider adding a big arm at the top, and might consider swapping Buchholz or one of the club’s younger pitchers. Indeed, one GM says that he expects plenty of clubs would have keen interest in adding Buchholz at that price, even in spite of his injury issues.
Of course, the Red Sox can afford not only to keep Buchholz but also to take a chance on his health. That’s all the more true precisely because of the aforementioned depth. Adding an “ace,” then, wouldn’t necessarily mean that the club needs to deal away the veteran righty. But it’s certainly plausible to imagine him being shipped out as part of a broader restructuring of assets.