West Notes: Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Kennedy
The Dodgers‘ new front office led by Andrew Friedman is perceived as likely to be statistically driven, but new GM Farhan Zaidi says the Dodgers need to excel at all methods of evaluation, Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times reports. “We need to be the best at everything,” says Zaidi. “I don’t think we’re in a position to make trade-offs of saying we’re a stat organization or a scouting organization.” Zaidi adds that he expects decision-making in Los Angeles to be collaborative. He, Friedman and senior vice president Josh Byrnes will all engage in talks with agents and with other teams. Here are more notes from the West divisions.
- On Thursday, Diamondbacks president Derrick Hall chatted with fans on Twitter, and the results are available in a single document at MLB.com. Hall says starting pitching will be the team’s top priority this winter, and he adds that the Diamondbacks hope to retain infielder Jordan Pacheco despite outrighting him this week. Arizona claimed Pacheco from the Rockies in June, and he hit .272/.298/.321 in 85 plate appearances down the stretch.
- Ian Kennedy had a bounce-back season in 2014 with the Padres and now is a top trade asset, writes Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune. A move out of Arizona and into a friendlier ballpark was one factor (particularly given Kennedy’s fly ball tendencies), but Sanders feels pitching coach Darren Balsley’s work with Kennedy might have been just as crucial. Balsey’s mechanical changes helped Kennedy boost his velocity — Kennedy’s average fastball increased from 90.3MPH to 91.8MPH last season. Sanders suggests that one alternative to a trade might be for the Padres to extend the reliable Kennedy rather than Andrew Cashner, who had neck, shoulder and elbow issues in 2014.
Cherington On Cespedes, Lester, Sandoval
Here’s the latest from Red Sox GM Ben Cherington, who answered questions today on MLB Network Radio (via WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford):
- Many teams have asked the Red Sox about their outfielders, Cherington says. That includes Yoenis Cespedes, about whom there have been recent trade rumors. Cherington says the Red Sox will have open minds about trades, but that “there is no particular player that we’re looking to move, including Cespedes.”
- Cherington says the Red Sox’ previous relationship with Jon Lester might make him easier as a potential free agent target this offseason, mostly because they won’t have to do the due diligence with Lester that they might with another big-ticket free agent. In any case, Cherington likes the team’s chances of upgrading the rotation this offseason, either in the free agent market (where Lester, James Shields, Max Scherzer and others are available) or in trades.
- Cherington says the Red Sox are likely to speak with Pablo Sandoval‘s agent Gustavo Vasquez, but adds, “[W]e’re going to talk to a lot of agents next week.” Cherington does note, however, that the fact that Sandoval is a good third baseman who can hit left-handed means there’s an “obvious link” between Sandoval and the Red Sox.
East Notes: Orioles, McCarthy, Coppolella
The Orioles‘ payroll will likely increase next season, MASNsports.com’s Steve Melewski writes, adding up likely expenditures to reach a projected Opening Day payroll of about $121MM. That’s up from $107.5MM in 2014. Melewski includes free agent outfielder Nick Markakis for $12MM in his projections, in line with the four-year, $48MM contract MLBTR’s Steve Adams projected Markakis would get. (It’s since been reported that the Orioles were discussing a four-year deal with Markakis.) The Orioles could non-tender a player or two to drop their total, but one problem is that they’ve got 11 arbitration-eligible players, including many who were very good last season and two others (Chris Davis and Matt Wieters) whose salary baselines are already very high thanks to their performance in previous years. They also have Adam Jones, J.J. Hardy and Ubaldo Jimenez locked up to relatively expensive long-term deals. Here are more notes on the East divisions.
- The Yankees have tried to re-sign Brandon McCarthy, but McCarthy is waiting to see what the market has in store for pitchers like Max Scherzer, Jon Lester and James Shields, CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman tweets. After an outstanding stretch run in New York, McCarthy is attracting interest as a potential alternative to the top tier of free agent starting pitching.
- Emerging executive John Coppolella is now John Hart’s “right-hand man” with the Braves, but he got his start in the Yankees organization, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman writes. After turning down a lucrative job at Intel, Coppolella became a baseball operations intern in New York right after graduating college, also working part-time at Chili’s to make ends meet. That led to an opportunity in Atlanta, where he’s worked his way up to assistant general manager. He’s widely seen as a top GM candidate.
International Notes: Baldoquin, Kim, Kang
It’s tough to know what to make of Cuban shortstop Roberto Baldoquin, who recently agreed to terms with the Angels, Ben Badler of Baseball America writes (subscription-only). Baldoquin didn’t hit well in Cuba and wasn’t even playing regularly, Badler notes. Baldoquin did, however, make a good impression on some teams. He could stick at shortstop or move to second base, and he has ironed out some issues with his swing and might end up having doubles power. Badler notes, however, that Baldoquin “isn’t considered a premium hitter.” Here are more notes on international agreements and potential acquisitions.
- Speaking of Baldoquin, his deal has not yet been finalized, as Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register writes. Baldoquin is currently working out in the Dominican Republic, which has yet to issue him a visa that would allow him to travel to the US to take a physical. Fletcher also notes that including the tax for exceeding their international bonus allotment, the Angels will pay about $15MM total for Baldoquin. That total indicates the Angels have much more faith in Baldoquin than many scouts do.
- FOX Sports’ C.J. Nitkowski takes a close look at two Korean players, Kwang-hyun Kim and Jung-ho Kang, who are looking to make the transition to MLB. Nitkowski played with both of them when he was pitching in Korea. The lefty Kim profiles as a reliever or a back-of-the-rotation starter, Nitkowski writes, noting that Kim’s changeup and curveball need improvement. Kang put up huge power numbers in Korea, but against lesser competition. It’s also unclear whether he can stick at shortstop.
Free Agent Profile: Nori Aoki
Nori Aoki‘s one season with the Royals was the franchise’s best in recent history, and he was one of eight players who formed a suffocating defense that was crucial to the team’s run to the playoffs. Now, though, the CAA client is a free agent, and it’s unclear what the market might hold for a 32-year-old corner outfielder with minimal power.
Pros/Strengths
Aoki’s approach at the plate has resulted in excellent and consistent batting averages and OBPs. He’s batted .288, .286 and .285 in his three seasons in the big leagues, with OBPs of .355, .356 and .349. The 2014 AL league average OBP was .316, so Aoki was way ahead of the pack in that regard, and that was no accident — Aoki walks about as often as he strikes out, with 141 career strikeouts and 144 career walks. He hits both righties and lefties well (he batted .363/.428/.435 against lefties this season, which is noteworthy even though it’s unsustainable) and does not need to be platooned.
Like most Royals, Aoki is above average defensively for his position — he posted a 5.9 UZR in 2014 and is 8.2 runs above average in his three-year big league career. His speed hasn’t translated to great value on the bases, but it’s served him well defensively. Aoki has also been very durable, with a three-week stint on the disabled list with a groin strain in 2014 as the only significant absence since he arrived in the US.
Aoki has been at least a two-win player in two of his three seasons in the league, and if he can maintain his high on-base percentage, his secondary skills are good enough to hit that threshold. He also did not receive a qualifying offer, so the team that signs him won’t have to give up a draft pick.
Weaknesses/Cons
In 2012, his first season in the US, Aoki hit ten home runs and 51 overall extra-base hits, good power numbers for a table-setter. In the last two years, however, that power has vanished — Aoki had eight homers and 31 extra-base hits in 2013, and just one homer and 29 extra-base hits in 2014.
Aoki’s fly ball percentage has decreased from 27.7% in 2012 to 17.1% in 2014, and the average distance of those fly balls has decreased from about 280 feet in 2012 to 249 feet in 2014, ahead of only Donovan Solano, Elvis Andrus and Emilio Bonifacio on Baseball Heat Maps’ Flyball Leaderboard. Meanwhile, Aoki this year hit ground balls at a 61.9% rate this season, the second highest percentage among qualified hitters throughout MLB, behind Ben Revere and just ahead of an ancient Derek Jeter. In other words, unless there’s something about Aoki that hasn’t been revealed to us, his loss of power doesn’t appear to be a fluke.
A corner outfielder doesn’t need great power to be productive, but Aoki would lose value quickly if any of his other skills were to slip. His lack of power also limits his upside. Aoki’s Isolated Power last year was .075. Of the 13 qualified batters last season with Isolated Power numbers of below .090, only two — Revere and Dee Gordon — produced above average offensive value overall, according to Fangraphs.
Personal
Aoki, of course, starred for eight years with the Yakult Swallows in Japan before arriving in the United States. He was born in Hyuga, a small coastal city in Southern Japan, and his parents still reside there. Aoki and his wife, Sachi, have two young children.
Aoki’s interpreter, Kosuke Inaji, has worked with him in both Milwaukee and Kansas City and is “very much an extension of him,” Vahe Gregorian of the Kansas City Star writes. “He’s like our fifth outfielder,” Carlos Gomez said of Inaji when he and Aoki were with the Brewers.
Aoki wins plenty of praise as a teammate. “He had a great personality,” says former manager Ron Roenicke. “He fit in really well with the guys. We had fun with him. But he worked as hard as you could work. You can’t put more effort into the job than he did.”
Market
There aren’t many good position players available this offseason, but there are a fair number of outfielders, including Melky Cabrera, Yasmany Tomas, Colby Rasmus, Nick Markakis, Alex Rios and Torii Hunter. It’s possible Cabrera, in particular, might have to sign before the rest of the market develops. The Royals appear likely to have interest in retaining Aoki, and he could also fit in with the Reds, Twins, Mets, Cardinals, Blue Jays, Orioles, Rangers, Giants or Tigers. Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe noted this week that the White Sox could be a possibility as well.
Aoki still profiles as a starter, but it’s unclear what his next team might be getting. His on-base ability is valuable, but the disappearance of his power is worrisome.
Expected Contract
A legitimate on-base threat is hard to find, and at his age (33 in January), Aoki could remain productive for at least two more years. He also has experience at all three outfield positions and could probably slide into a fourth outfielder role if his offense slips.
For all his drawbacks, Aoki was obviously a bargain throughout his previous contract, which paid him just $4.95MM total for the 2012 through 2014 seasons. This time around, he should be able to find a two-year contract at a significantly higher annual salary. He might end up being able to land a two-year, $16MM deal.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Week In Review: 11/1/14 – 11/7/14
Here’s a look back at this week at MLBTR.
Key Moves
- The Brewers acquired first baseman Adam Lind from the Blue Jays for pitcher Marco Estrada.
- Outfielder Alfonso Soriano retired.
- The Angels will sign Cuban infielder Roberto Baldoquin.
- The Indians extended manager Terry Francona.
- Third baseman Aramis Ramirez exercised his half of a mutual option to stay with the Brewers.
- Pitcher A.J. Burnett declined his player option with the Phillies.
- The Twins hired Paul Molitor as their next manager.
- 12 free agents received qualifying offers.
Signed
- Angels – P Jeremy McBryde (link)
- Cubs – P Tsuyoshi Wada (link)
Traded
- Astros – acquired C Hank Conger from Angels for C Carlos Perez and P Nick Tropeano
- Angels – acquired P Cesar Ramos from Rays for P Mark Sappington
Team Exercised Option
- Royals – P Wade Davis (link)
- Rays – P Joel Peralta (link)
- Marlins – C Jeff Mathis (link)
- Blue Jays – C Josh Thole (link)
- Cubs – P Jacob Turner (link)
Team Declined Option
- Rockies – P Brett Anderson (link)
- Blue Jays – P Brandon Morrow, P Dustin McGowan, INF Justin Smoak (link — Smoak will remain the organization), P Sergio Santos (link)
- Royals – DH Billy Butler (link)
Claimed
- Pirates – INF Jake Elmore (from Reds – link)
- Athletics – P Taylor Thompson (from White Sox – link)
- Dodgers – INF Ryan Jackson (from Padres – link)
- Mariners – INF Carlos Rivero (from Mariners – link)
- Rockies – P Jorge Rondon (from Cardinals – link)
- White Sox – OF J.B. Shuck (from Indians – link)
- Astros – P Will Harris (from Diamondbacks – link)
- Nationals – P Eric Fornataro (from Cardinals – link)
Designated For Assignment
- Angels – OF Roger Kieschnick (link)
- Padres – P Eric Stults, P Donn Roach (link)
- Rockies – P Rob Scahill (link)
- Rays – INF Vince Belnome (link)
Outrighted
- Rays – OF Jerry Sands (link)
- Diamondbacks – INF Jordan Pacheco (link)
- Athletics – C Bryan Anderson (link)
- Giants – C Guillermo Quiroz, P Brett Bochy (link)
- Pirates – P John Axford, P Jeanmar Gomez, INF Chase d’Arnaud (link)
- Yankees – OF Antoan Richardson (link)
- Padres – C Adam Moore (link)
- Red Sox – INF Jonathan Herrera (link)
- Indians – C Chris Gimenez (link)
Retired
Key Minor League Signings
- Yankees – P Andrew Bailey (link)
Other
- SK Wyverns (Korea) posted P Kwang-hyun Kim
- KIA Tigers (Korea) posted P Hyeon-jong Yang
Russell Martin To Meet With Four Teams
It is early in the free agent process, but the Cubs have already met with top backstop Russell Martin, Bruce Levine reports for CBS Chicago. Martin is also expected to visit and undertake preliminary discussions with the Pirates, Dodgers, and Blue Jays, according to Levine. It is far from clear, of course, that Martin’s market will ultimately be limited to that group. After all, he figures to draw broad interest around the game.
Incumbent Cubs catcher Welington Castillo struggled with his offense and framing last year, and the big-market Cubs have money to spend, so it’s unsurprising they would have interest in Martin. In Los Angeles, catcher A.J. Ellis hit just .191/.323/.254 last season, and the Dodgers’ new saber-friendly front office will likely place a high value on Martin, particularly given his work behind the plate. The Jays have had internal discussions about pursuing Martin and making current starting catcher Dioner Navarro their primary DH.
Quick Hits: Epstein, Butler, Billingsley
Cubs owner Tom Ricketts told Mully and Hanley of 670 The Score (via Levine) that he is interested in having extension talks with president of baseball operations Theo Epstein. The 40-year-old executive joined the Cubs just over three years ago on a five-year deal. Here’s more from around the big leagues.
- The Royals are not ruling out the possibility of bringing back DH Billy Butler, reports Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star. While Kansas City obviously did not value him at his $12.5MM option, and had hoped to give some DH time to Alex Gordon and Salvador Perez, Mellinger says that Butler’s play down the stretch and in the postseason has changed the club’s thinking. Of course, his .770 OPS over the season’s last 62 games was hardly world-beating production for a bat-only player, but it did hint that his previous excellence at the plate may still be found. Mellinger theorizes that Kansas City could be willing to guarantee Butler eight figures on a two-year deal, though the lifetime Royal would probably need to forego better offers to stay — which he did say was a possibility earlier in the year.
- Free agent righty Chad Billingsley has changed his representation to Octagon’s Steve Hilliard, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter). He had been a client of Dave Stewart, who of course has given up the business as part of his new career move. Billingsley, still only 30, has missed virtually all of the past two seasons with multiple elbow surgeries. In spite of his health struggles, Billingsley should draw plenty of interest as a buy-low candidate.
Yankees, Chris Young Have Mutual Interest
Free agent outfielder Chris Young is in discussions with the Yankees about a deal that would keep him in New York, according to a report from Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. Young joined the Yankees on a minor league deal in the middle of 2014, after he was released by the crosstown Mets.
Young had a rough go of things in Queens last year, slashing .205/.283/.346 over 287 plate appearances after signing a one-year, $7.25MM pact in free agency. That represented similar production to his run with the Athletics the year prior, when Young’s downturn began.
But he turned things around in a late-season run with the Yankees, putting up a .282/.354/.521 line in a short sample of 79 plate appearances. And the 31-year-old does have a history of pretty impressive work — twenty home run power, twenty steal speed, and solid defense in center — in the not-so-distant past.
For the Yankees, Young would surely fit in a reserve capacity. The club has committed big money to Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner, and Carlos Beltran, though the latter may need to see an increasing amount of time in the DH slot.
Free Agent Prediction Contest Deadline Tonight
Dust off your crystal ball again, it’s time for MLBTR’s fourth annual free agent prediction contest! Predict destinations for our top 50 free agents, with the chance to win fantastic prizes and bragging rights over your friends and the MLBTR writing team. Last year’s winner had 13 correct; can you beat that?
How To Play
- Click here to make picks for our top 50 free agents. For each player you can choose any of the 30 teams, as well as Retirement or Japan.
- A Facebook account is required to participate in this contest. You can log in with the button up top, or by using the Save Your Picks button at the bottom.
- Feel free to leave your picks incomplete for now, as long as you save them using the button at the bottom. The contest is open now and runs until 11:59pm central time tonight. Make sure to have something chosen and saved for all 50 players by the deadline, or else you will not be eligible for the contest. We suggest you save periodically after every 5-10 picks in case it times out.
- Players on our top 50 that sign before the November 7th deadline are considered freebies, although you still need to go in and make the correct pick. It’s kind of like getting points for putting your name on the test – seems like a no-brainer, but a few people still won’t do it.
- The leaderboard will rank contestants by “batting average” on correct picks, once players start signing. The leaderboard will show everyone’s full names and Facebook profile picture.
Rules
- Final picks must be saved by November 7th at 11:59pm central time – no exceptions.
- MLBTR writers are not eligible for prizes.
- One entry per person, please.
- With regard to prizes, ties in batting average will be decided by totaling the ranking number of each correctly-guessed free agent and taking the lowest total, rewarding contestants for being right on better free agents. If people are still tied after that method is applied, prizes will be distributed at MLBTR’s discretion by choosing among tied contestants randomly.
- Prize winners must respond to an email message within 48 hours.
Prizes
- $1,000 in cash prizes to be distributed among the top five finishers
- More prizes to come