A.J. Burnett Declines Player Option
Phillies starter A.J. Burnett has declined his player option, the Phillies announced. By turning down his $12.75MM option, Burnett will become a free agent.
Burnett’s decision was one of the more closely-watched option situations around the game, in large part because the outcome was unclear. The Phillies have recently made clear they intend to focus the organization’s energies on rebuilding for the future rather than competing in the near-term, and that — combined with his experiences last year — may have encouraged Burnett to leave the cash on the table.
Indeed, from Philadelphia’s perspective, the savings on Burnett appear to constitute a nice opportunity. As MLBTR’s Brad Johnson wrote in his outlook for the Phils, the decision swing open a significant bit of space between the team’s current obligations and the luxury tax line.
For Burnett, the decision leaves him free to pursue a deal with a contending club, and his agent tells Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (Twitter link) that he’ll do just that. Of course, Burnett presumably still carries his preference for joining a team within range of his Maryland home.
Burnett is not quite the commodity he was last year — his 4.59 ERA/4.14 FIP/3.95 xFIP/4.00 SIERA campaign does not have nearly the luster that last year’s 3.30/2.80/2.92/3.03 numbers did. And he is a year older, entering his age-38 campaign. On the other hand, he again posted big innings totals and did pitch through a sports hernia for most of the year.
Twelve Free Agents Receive Qualifying Offers
Today marked the deadline for players to receive one-year, $15.3MM qualifying offers, and after nine players receiving a QO in 2012 and 13 players receiving the offer last offseason, 12 players have been extended a qualifying offer by their teams in 2014. They are:
- Max Scherzer (Tigers)
- Victor Martinez (Tigers)
- David Robertson (Yankees)
- Melky Cabrera (Blue Jays)
- James Shields (Royals)
- Hanley Ramirez (Dodgers)
- Pablo Sandoval (Giants)
- Nelson Cruz (Orioles)
- Russell Martin (Pirates)
- Francisco Liriano (Pirates)
- Michael Cuddyer (Rockies)
- Ervin Santana (Braves)
Should these players reject the offer and sign with a new team, their former team will stand to receive a “sandwich” round draft pick as compensation. Those new teams, in turn, will have to forfeit their top unprotected draft pick. If a player rejects a QO but ultimately re-signs with the same team, no draft pick shuffling occurs.
There will be 11 protected picks in this year’s draft, as the picks of the teams with the 10 worst records are protected under the CBA, and Houston’s comp pick for failure to sign Brady Aiken is protected as well. The D’Backs, Astros, Rockies, Rangers, Twins, Red Sox, White Sox, Cubs, Phillies and Reds will all have their first-round selections protected. Those clubs will instead forfeit a second-round pick to sign a free agent with draft pick compensation attached. Teams can sign more than one free agent that has rejected a QO, as the Orioles did last winter in signing both Ubaldo Jimenez and Cruz. In that instance, Jimenez cost the team its first-round pick, while Cruz cost the club its second-round selection.
The players listed above will now have one week to decide whether or not to accept the QO and play on a one-year deal worth $15.3MM, or instead to or reject the offer in search of a larger guarantee on the open market.
The word “guarantee” is the key to that sentiment: while many will focus on whether or not the players can top that average annual value on the free agent market, more often than not, a player is concerned primarily with maximizing the amount of money he can earn over his prime seasons. Few players are ever sold on the idea of playing on a one-year deal when a multi-year guarantee can be had. Single-year contracts, on the free agent market, are often reserved for older players who don’t know how long they wish to continue playing (e.g. Hiroki Kuroda last winter), players coming off massive injuries (e.g. Corey Hart last winter) or players who have significantly underperformed in a contract year (e.g. Chris Young last offseason).
While upon first glance it might make sense to suggest a player with a spotty track record, such as Liriano, should accept the offer, there’s more downside for him in accepting than in rejecting. Even if Liriano is faced with a cold market, he’d likely be able to find a one-year contract at an AAV north of $10MM, if not a one-year offer commensurate with the total sum of the qualifying offer, as Santana did last offseason when signing a one-year, $14.1MM contract with the Braves. Whereas the downside in accepting is “settling” for a one-year deal a few ticks below the QO level, the upside in rejecting is finding perhaps a three-year deal that could more than double the guarantee he’d otherwise receive. This risk/benefit calculus generally points toward testing the market.
The one case for accepting in this year’s class, that I see, would be that of Cuddyer. Though a solid veteran bat coming off a strong pair of seasons in terms of his rate stats, Cuddyer has defensive limitations and injury questions that will also drag his stock down. He played in just 49 games in 2014 and will play next season at age 36. MLBTR’s Zach Links only pegged his free agent stock at $22MM over two years in his recent Free Agent Profile for Cuddyer. It does seem there’s a real chance that Cuddyer could come in significantly lower than $15.3MM on a one-year deal if he rejects, and the upside may not be much greater for him as a two-year deal may have been the realistic ceiling anyhow.
Reports on whether or not any player will accept the offer should be filtering in over the next week, but those looking for a quick resource to check the status of each can use MLBTR’s Free Agent Tracker (the provided link is already filtered to show only free agents that have received the QO, and their status will change from “Received” to “Rejected” or “Accepted” upon a decision being reached).
Padres Designate Stults, Roach; Lose Jackson To Dodgers On Waivers
The Padres announced today that they have designated left-hander Eric Stults and right-hander Donn Roach for assignment, adding that catcher Adam Moore has been outrighted off the 40-man roster. Additionally, infielder Ryan Jackson has been claimed off waivers by the Dodgers.
The moves make room for the reinstatement of right-hander Casey Kelly, left-hander Cory Luebke, first baseman Yonder Alonso and outfielder Carlos Quentin from the 60-day disabled list.
Stults, who is nearing his 35th birthday, threw 176 innings of 4.30 ERA ball last season, tallying 5.7 K/9 against 2.3 BB/9. Those numbers represent a downtick from his work over 2012-13, when Stults carried a 3.60 ERA across 302 2/3 innings. The major difference in his year-over-year results comes in the form of an increasing rate of home runs allowed. ERA estimators have generally viewed him in much the same light: as a below-average starting pitcher. Stults had been projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $4.6MM through arbitration, so the move is not terribly surprising.
Roach, meanwhile, made his MLB debut this year at age 24. He posted a 4.75 ERA in 30 1/3 frames while posting an unappetizing 5.0 K/9 against 4.5 BB/9. His numbers at Triple-A were no more promising, but Roach has had success in the lower minor league levels.
As for Moore, the 30-year-old backstop has seen action in parts of six MLB seasons but has only taken more than 24 plate appearances in one of them (back in 2010 with the Mariners). Once a well-regarded prospect, Moore has a .200/.241/.309 line over 283 trips to the plate in the majors. He did, however, have an excellent campaign at Triple-A this year, slashing .305/.367/.506 and swatting 13 long balls over 354 plate appearances.
The 26-year-old Jackson will present a utility infield option for his new club. He has scant major league experience, but owns a .274/.344/.369 slash in over 1,000 plate appearances at the Triple-A level and comes with a good defensive reputation at short. Jackson missed most of 2014 after undergoing wrist surgery.
Orioles Make Qualifying Offer To Nelson Cruz
The Orioles announced that they have made a one-year, $15.3MM qualifying offer to Nelson Cruz and also re-instated Manny Machado and Matt Wieters from the 60-day disabled list, bringing the team’s 40-man roster to 33. At this point, it appears that Nick Markakis will not be the recipient of a QO, which should help his stock on the free agent market. Of course, he’s also said to be discussing a four-year deal to remain in Baltimore.
Cruz signed a one-year, $8MM contract with the Orioles last winter after seeking as much as $75MM+ despite battling the negative impact of both a QO and a season-ending PED suspension. His 2014 performance indicated that teams needn’t be overly concerned with his power production following the suspension, however, as he hit .271/.333/.525 with Major League leading 40 home runs (plus two more in the postseason).
Cruz is expected to turn down the offer, of course, on the heels of that excellent season in hopes of finding the multi-year deal he wasn’t able to secure last winter. If he signs elsewhere, the O’s will get a comp pick at the end of next year’s first round, and the signing club will forfeit its top unprotected draft pick.
MLBTR’s Free Agent Tracker can be used to monitor all players who received a qualifying offer over the next week until the deadline for them to make their decisions, which will be 5pm ET next Monday.
Dodgers Make Qualifying Offer To Hanley Ramirez
The Dodgers announced that they have made a one-year, $15.3MM qualifying offer to Hanley Ramirez.
The move was widely expected, as Ramirez will hit the open market as arguably the top position player in this year’s free agent class. The 30-year-old Ramirez batted .283/.369/.448 with 13 homers in 128 games this season, and while he’s been injury prone over the past few years, he comes with the upside of being one of the game’s best offensive players, as he was in 2013 upon activation from the disabled list. Ramirez slashed an otherworldly .345/.402/.638 with 20 homers in 86 games that year and is a lifetime .300/.373/.500 hitter.
Ramirez will have a week to accept or decline the offer, though that’s little more than a formality as he will clearly decline in favor of a multi-year free agent deal. If he signs elsewhere after rejecting the offer, the Dodgers would receive a compensatory draft pick at the end of next year’s first round.
His status, along with that of others who have been recipients of the qualifying offer, can be monitored in MLBTR’s Free Agent Tracker.
Rockies Extend Qualifying Offer To Michael Cuddyer
The Rockies announced that they have extended a one-year, $15.3MM qualifying offer to Michael Cuddyer.
Needless to say, this move comes as a bit of a surprise. The 35-year-old Cuddyer will turn 36 next March and played in just 49 games this season. While his production over the past two seasons has been unquestionably outstanding when healthy — he’s batted .331/.385/.543 and captured the 2013 NL Batting Title — Cuddyer was not seen as a candidate for a QO due to his injuries and age.
No player has ever accepted a qualifying offer, but Cuddyer strikes me as a candidate to be the first to do so. Should he reject, teams will have to forfeit their top unprotected draft pick in order to sign Cuddyer. Given his inability to stay on the field last year and his defensive question marks, that may be a lot for a team to stomach. It’s also worth pointing out that the $15.3MM sum would represent nearly half of the total guarantee on Cuddyer’s previous three-year, $31.5MM contract, meaning he’d be getting a substantial raise in terms of AAV. One possibility is that the Rockies are using the qualifying offer as leverage with the hope of getting Cuddyer to agree to a more affordable two-year extension.
Cuddyer and other players who have received the QO can be followed using MLBTR’s Free Agent Tracker.
Red Sox Outright Herrera; Rivero Claimed By Mariners
The Red Sox announced today that infielder Jonathan Herrera has been outrighted off the 40-man roster and will elect free agency. Additionally, infielder Carlos Rivero has been claimed off waivers by the Mariners, according to the Red Sox.
Herrera, who turns 30 years old today, batted .233/.307/.289 in 104 plate appearances with Boston after being acquired last offseason in exchange for lefty Franklin Morales and right-hander Chris Martin. The versatile switch-hitter played all four infield positions for the Red Sox and is a lifetime .263/.324/.329 hitter in 1213 plate appearances — all of which came with the Rockies with the exception of this year’s stint with Boston.
Rivero, 26, made his Major League debut for the Sox in 2014 and went 4-for-7 with a homer and a pair of doubles. That burst of production doesn’t really line up with the .280/.333/.394 batting line that Rivero has compiled in four seasons at the Triple-A level, but he’s shown quite a bit of versatility by appearing at shortstop, third base, left field and first base throughout his minor league career. Rivero has previously spent time with the Indians and Nationals in addition to the Sox.
Rockies Claim Jorge Rondon; Designate Rob Scahill
The Rockies announced today (on Twitter) that they have claimed right-hander Jorge Rondon off waivers from the Cardinals and designated fellow righty Rob Scahill for assignment.
The 26-year-old Rondon made his big league debut in 2014, firing one scoreless inning in his lone appearance. The rest of the season was spent at the Triple-A level for Rondon, where he pitched to a 3.03 ERA with 7.4 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 in 62 1/3 innings of relief work.
Prior to the 2013 season, Baseball America ranked Rondon as the Cards’ No. 24 prospect and graded his slider as the best in the Cardinals’ minor league system. Per BA’s scouting report from that timeframe, Rondon’s fastball has touched 100 mph, but he struggles with his command at times, particularly when he reaches back to get extra life on the previously mentioned heater. He figures to compete for a bullpen job with Colorado next spring.
Scahill, 27, totaled a 4.80 ERA in 15 innings with the Rockies this season and has pitched to a 4.42 ERA in 57 frames with the Rockies over the past three years. He’s averaged 5.5 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 in the Majors while featuring solid life on his fastball — an average of 94.4 mph.
Braves Make Qualifying Offer To Ervin Santana
The Braves announced that they have officially made a one-year, $15.3MM qualifying offer to right-hander Ervin Santana, who will now have a week to accept or decline the offer. Should he decline and sign elsewhere, which seems likely, the Braves would receive a compensatory draft pick at the end of the first round of next year’s draft.
Santana, 31, enjoyed a solid season for Atlanta in which he posted a 3.95 ERA with 8.2 K/9, 2.9 BB/9 and a 42.7 percent ground-ball rate in 196 innings of work. While his ERA rose, metrics such as FIP (3.39) and xFIP (3.47) felt Santana had his best season since 2008.
Santana was hit with a QO last offseason as well and struggled to find a deal, though that may have been more due to the fact that his agents (two of whom no longer represent Santana) were said to be seeking a deal north of $110MM than the fact that Santana required a draft pick in order to sign. Even with a QO hanging over his head, Santana was able to find a one-year deal worth the exact amount of the QO ($14.1MM) late in the offseason, and he had similar one-year offers from both Baltimore and Toronto as well as three-year offer in the $30-33MM range from the Twins.
Suffice it to say, while the QO likely impacted his value in a negative manner, it certainly didn’t eliminate all interest in him on the open market. I’d wager that hitting the market with more realistic expectations this time could be beneficial — a sentiment which Tim Dierkes elaborated upon in his recent Free Agent Profile for Santana. Tim ultimately predicted a four-year deal north of $50MM for Santana — a projection with which I agree.
Earlier today, David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution tweeted that Santana has indicated that he’d consider accepting the QO, though as O’Brien noted shortly thereafter, it’s possible that was simply posturing by Santana’s camp in an effort to dissuade the team from making the offer in the first place (Twitter links).
You can use MLBTR’s Free Agent Tracker to follow everyone who’s received a QO to this point and track their status in the coming week as they make their decisions.
Indians Outright Chris Gimenez, Re-Sign Tyler Cloyd
The Indians announced today that they have outrighted catcher Chris Gimenez off the 40-man roster and re-signed right-hander Tyler Cloyd to a minor league deal with an invite to big league Spring Training.
Gimenez, 32 in December, batted .241/.313/.328 in 116 plate appearances for the Rangers and Indians this season. The journeyman backstop has seen Major League action with Texas, Cleveland, Tampa and Seattle in parts of six seasons at the big league level, totaling a .210/.297/.302 batting line. He’ll have the option to hit the open market and should draw interest from teams in need of catching depth, especially given this year’s thin crop of free agent catchers.
Cloyd, 27, spent the year in the rotation at Triple-A Columbus after being claimed off waivers from the Phillies around this time last year. He pitched to a 3.89 ERA with 6.4 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 in 166 2/3 innings in his first year with the Cleveland organization.