Rays Notes: Revenue, Balfour, Myers, Escobar
The Rays are facing an uphill battle to keep their franchise relevant in a market that may not truly be a big-league market, writes former MLBTR scribe Howard Megdal in a piece for USA Today. While ownership bet big on 2014 with an $80MM payroll that was seen as a lot for the Rays, that figure ranked just 25th in the Majors this season. The increasing payrolls around the game create a shrinking pathway for the Rays, Megdal writes, and with a stadium that conjures up memories of what the fan experience was like in the 1980s (plus the rejection of a prototype for an innovative new stadium), there appears to be little sign of things improving. The team has an exciting crop of young pitching that features the likes of Chris Archer, Alex Cobb, Drew Smyly, Jake Odorizzi, Jeremy Hellickson and a returning Matt Moore (in 2015), but Megdal wonders how long the team will be able to hold onto that group. Those who don’t sign extensions, after all, will see their price tags soar in arbitration at an ever-increasing rate, and offense is only getting more expensive. As such, the Rays’ lack of revenue — the team drew just 1.446MM fans this season — is a significant concern.
Here’s more on the Rays…
- The Rays’ biggest needs heading into the offseason appear to be a power bat and a reliable reliever to deepen the back end of manager Joe Maddon’s bullpen, but Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times wonders if the Rays already have those pieces in the form of Wil Myers and Grant Balfour. Myers had a self-described “nightmare” of a season, but he’s looking forward to an offseason to rebuild his health and a clean slate in 2015. Meanwhile, Balfour has altered his mechanics and feels he’s found a groove in the season’s final month (three runs and a 12-to-2 K/BB ratio over his past 11 frames). Given his $7MM salary next season, a return to form for Balfour is crucial for the Rays, whose payroll will reportedly decline significantly.
- After a scary looking knee injury on an attempt to avoid a tag at home plate, Yunel Escobar received good news, writes MLB.com’s Bill Chastain. An MRI showed no structural damage in his knee, and while he won’t play for the remainder of the season, he should be fine going forward. Manager Joe Maddon notes to Chastain that Escobar’s play picked up once the rumors of him being traded to the Athletics in August dissipated. Maddon called “Oakland-gate” a “tough moment” for Escobar, noting that he didn’t fully understand the situation. It may just be a coincidence, but Escobar did hit .301/.378/.479 with three of his seven homers this season from Aug. 27 on.
West Notes: D’backs, Padres, Astros Manager, Angels
It was a big day for the Diamondbacks: after announcing major front office changes, the club has all but clinched the league’s worst record, as Steve Gilbert of MLB.com notes (Twitter links). The only way they’d fall to the second pick would be if they were to sweep the Cardinals this weekend, with the Rockies in turn being swept by the Dodgers. It’s highly likely that Arizona will hold the first overall pick in next year’s amateur draft, providing an early test for chief baseball officer Tony La Russa and newly-minted GM Dave Stewart.
Here’s more from the west:
- Padres manager Bud Black indicated that he expects changes to the club’s array of position players, as MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell reports. “We were pretty set, and I think that’s definitely changed this year,” said Black. “I don’t know whether uncertain is the word. But I do think there will be some roster construction more so than last year.” It will be interesting to see how newly-minted GM A.J. Preller attacks his first offseason. If this season’s results are any indication, while the rotation is in solid shape, improving the offensive output may require new acquisitions.
- The Astros intend to be quiet, careful, and thorough in their managerial hunt, writes Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle. GM Jeff Luhnow is not necessarily seeking someone more malleable or numbers-focused than deposed skipper Bo Porter, according to Drellich, but rather someone more “relatable.” One of the possible candidates, Diamondbacks Triple-A manager Phil Nevin, is set for an interview after receiving clearance from the Arizona organization, MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart reports.
- Angels owner Arte Moreno covered a lot of ground in an interesting interview with Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times. Moreno said that he is committed to winning a championship, emphasizing the financial health of the organization and how that has supported the team’s significant spending. Saying that the team carries no debt and operates at a profit, Moreno indicated that he has no intentions of selling his valuable ownership stake — though he said that he would take an objective, businesslike approach if contacted by an interested buyer.
East Notes: Olivera, Stanton, Red Sox, Janssen, Lind
Here’s the latest from the game’s eastern divisions:
- The Marlins are interested in Cuban second baseman Hector Olivera, reports Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald. Olivera recently defected with hopes of becoming an MLB free agent, and Miami is certainly one of several clubs that looks in need of an acquisition up the middle.
- Giancarlo Stanton‘s season-ending injury does not change the Marlins‘ plans to make a push at extending him this winter, the Associated Press reports (via the New York Times). “There’s no hesitancy, no reservation or doubt he’ll return and be even better,” said Miami president of baseball operations Michael Hill. “We’re going to do everything in our power to keep him a fixture in our lineup for many years to come.”
- The Red Sox are not giving up on Will Middlebrooks in spite of building frustration, but president Larry Lucchino did make clear that the team is “looking for a left-handed hitting third baseman,” as he told WEEI’s Dennis & Callahan (via WEEI.com’s Andrew Battifarano). Though Lucchino said that prospect Garin Cecchini could be that player, he also emphasized that the team will not “make the same mistake that [we] made this year, which is to assume that so many of our young players are ready for prime time.”
- Two long-time Blue Jays — reliever Casey Janssen and DH Adam Lind — are approaching the possibility of finding new homes, as Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca writes. Janssen, a free agent, says he does not yet know whether Toronto will make him a competitive offer. If not, he says, he will “embrace a new city and try to bring a championship to wherever that next stop is.” Lind, on the other hand, is subject to a $7.5MM club option. Though expectations are that it will be exercised, Lind says he hopes the front office will give him a clear sense of its intentions before the season ends.
Central Notes: Braun, Ramirez, Hughes, Rondon
The Brewers fell to the Reds today by a score of 5-3, thereby officially eliminating the club from the postseason despite having spent 150 days in first place in the NL Central this season. As MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy notes, Milwaukee’s collapse makes the Brewers the first team since divisional play began in 1969 to spend that much time in first place but miss the postseason (Twitter link).
Here are some notes from Milwaukee and elsewhere in the game’s central divisions …
- Ryan Braun could at least theoretically be moved from the outfield to plug the Brewers‘ hole at first base, reports MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy. Manager Ron Roenicke said that the team had discussed that possibility, but indicated that it was a hypothetical discussion that did not seem likely to go anywhere. If Braun stays in the outfield, the team will both need to find a new first bagger (both Mark Reynolds and Lyle Overbay are free agents) and will face a more difficult decision whether to tender a contract to Gerardo Parra. As McCalvy notes, there are currently three possibilities already on the club’s 40-man roster in Matt Clark, Hunter Morris, and Jason Rogers. Otherwise, Milwaukee could turn to a free agent market that does appear to have a decent number of lumbering slugger types available.
- Brewers third baseman Aramis Ramirez will soon meet with his agent, Paul Kinzer, to discuss his strategic options, writes McCalvy. Ramirez says that he has yet to seriously consider his future, though generally would like to stay with Milwaukee and is not sure he is interested in committing to multiple years. If he does decide to test the open market, Ramirez would need to turn down a $14MM mutual option (if it is offered in lieu of a $4MM buyout). Though his production is down somewhat this year, the 36-year-old remains a solid regular and would draw plenty of attention on the open market.
- After a rain delay put a premature end to the last start of the season for Phil Hughes of the Twins, the club offered him a chance to make a relief appearance this weekend to notch the last out needed to trigger a $500K contract bonus, reports MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger (links to Twitter). Even more remarkable than that offer, perhaps, is the fact that Hughes declined, saying that he “owe[s] too much to the organization over the next two years to risk getting hurt.” (GM Terry Ryan said that it was not possible simply to give Hughes the cash, since the CBA would require a completely restructured contract, though Hughes also shot down that idea as setting a “bad precedent.”) Needless to say, this interesting tale puts a shine on an already gleaming turnaround year for Hughes.
- The emergence of Hector Rondon as the Cubs‘ closer this year makes him an easy choice to keep the role next year, writes MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat. Rondon, 26, took a big step forward in 2014, striking out nearly nine batters per nine (against 2.2 BB/9) while registering a 2.49 ERA. If he continues to rack up the saves — he sits at 27 on the year — Rondon will set himself up for a nice payday when he reaches arbitration eligibility after next season. His continued presence at the back of the pen — bolstered by Pedro Strop and Neil Ramirez, both of whom have had strong campaigns — could keep the Cubs out of the free agent market for late-inning arms.
Josh Willingham Likely To Retire After Season
5:57pm: Willingham says that he has yet to decide whether or not he will play next year, as Berardino tweets.
3:30pm: Right-handed slugger Josh Willingham has decided to retire following the conclusion of the 2014 campaign, according to a report from Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press. According to Berardino, the 35-year-old Willingham has told people close to him that he is “100 percent retiring,” although agent Matt Sosnick tells MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes (Twitter link) that “Josh and [his wife] Ginger haven’t made a definitive decision.”
Willingham has been slowed by a groin injury for much of September, which comes just months after he missed nearly two months with a fractured wrist (suffered when he was hit by a pitch) and a year after he missed a large chunk of the 2013 season with a torn meniscus.
Willingham inked a three-year, $21MM contract with the Twins in the 2011-12 offseason and proceeded to have a career year, mashing 35 homers and posting a very strong .260/.366/.524 batting line in 2012, despite playing in the pitcher-friendly confines of Minneapolis’ Target Field. However, since that time he’s batted .212/.345/.382 as he’s battled those injuries. Minnesota flipped him to the division-rival Royals in exchange for pitching prospect Jason Adam in August.
A late bloomer, Willingham didn’t make his Major League debut until age 25 and didn’t see more than 29 plate appearances in a season until his age-27 campaign with the Marlins. However, he quickly established himself as an on-base machine and a power threat, as he posted an OPS+ and wRC+ of at least 100 (league average) or better in each season from 2006-14 (with the exception of an OPS+ of 96 last year).
In total, Willingham has put together a .253/.359/.465 batting line with 195 home runs in his Major League career. As Berardino notes, his 35-homer campaign in 2012 makes him one of just three players in Twins franchise history with a 35-homer season, joining late Hall of Famer Harmon Killebrew and 1959 Rookie of the Year Bob Allison. With the Royals almost certainly ticketed for the playoffs, Willingham is set to make the first postseason appearance of his 11-year big league career in October. He’s earned $35.6MM as a Major Leaguer, per Baseball-Reference.com.
Diamondbacks Hire Dave Stewart As GM
The Diamondbacks announced today that they have hired Dave Stewart as their new senior vice president and general manager, thereby filling the void that was created when Kevin Towers was removed from the role earlier this month. Additionally, De Jon Watson has been hired away from the Dodgers to serve as senior VP of baseball operations. Both men will report directly to chief baseball officer Tony La Russa, according to the press release.
Stewart, 57, is quite familiar with La Russa, as he was the ace of several of pitching staffs with the A’s that were managed by La Russa in the late 1980s. Stewart has plenty of experience around the game, however, as he’s served as a pitching coach for the Brewers, an assistant general manager with the Blue Jays and a player agent, representing (up until this point) well-known big leaguers such as Matt Kemp, Chad Billingsley and Chris Carter. Of course, Stewart will have to give that business up, and he’s already explained to John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle that he will transfer that business to former teammate Dave Henderson.
It’s been quite some time since Stewart was in a front office, but he was once considered a hot GM candidate and was thought to have a chance to take over the post in Toronto and succeed Gord Ash following the 2001 season. (J.P. Ricciardi was instead named the next Blue Jays GM.) Baseball America ranked Stewart sixth among a list of its top 10 general manager “prospects” back in 2000.
This will be Stewart’s first test as a general manager, a position which he told Shea is exciting to him: “As an agent, I’m not challenged every day,” said Stewart. “But this job is 24 hours every day, and I’m looking forward to that.” He will have his work cut out for him, as the D’Backs are wrapping up a season in which they will narrowly miss 100 losses and are on pace to finish with baseball’s worst record. Of course, that fate would also provide Stewart with the opportunity to have the first overall pick in what will be his first draft as a GM.
In Watson, the D’Backs have secured a high-profile front office acquisition. The 48-year-old Watson had been serving as Los Angeles’ vice president of player development and was in his seventh year with the organization. In that role, Watson was responsible for developing and evaluating each minor league player in the system as well as appointing minor league managers, coaches and instructors. He also served as an advisor to GM Ned Colletti on all 40-man roster decisions. Prior to his time with the Dodgers, Watson served as the Indians’ director of professional scouting and the Reds’ scouting director. Prior to those roles, he served as an area scout for the Marlins.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Red Sox Notes: Betts, Badenhop, Middlebrooks, Staff
The Red Sox have accumulated a large number of outfielders and will be on the hunt for starting pitching this offseason, meaning the club could deal from its surplus to address its weak pitching. However, in a piece for FOX Sports, Dave Cameron writes that the Sox shouldn’t consider parting with Mookie Betts (who will frequently be asked for in trade scenarios), even if it means acquiring a front-line starter. Betts’ elite contact rate and low chase rate illustrate that he’s a player who knows his limitations (i.e. he won’t for huge power in the Majors), Cameron explains. He likens Betts to a number of players who fall into that same mold and ultimately concludes that Betts has the makings of a young Ben Zobrist — a strong all-around player with enough defensive versatility that he could be a regular without ever having a set position. Given the frequency with which pitchers are breaking down, betting on Betts’ athleticism and versatility might make more sense than trading him for an arm, in Cameron’s mind.
Here are some more Red Sox items…
- WEEI.com’s Alex Speier spoke with right-hander Burke Badenhop about his unlikely journey to free agency. Badenhop recalls at one point, shortly before he was drafted, weighing a job offer that would have paid him $45,000 a year against the possibility of pursuing his Major League dream. (He notes that he was never interested in pursuing a career as a minor leaguer — “I wanted to play Major League Baseball.”) Badenhop took a $1,000 bonus with the Tigers after a poor pre-draft workout and carved out a role in the Marlins’ bullpen after being sent to Miami in the Miguel Cabrera trade. Badenhop is realistic about his offseason value, noting that some teams may prefer to go with a minor leaguer in his middle-inning role, but he feels some find value in the certainty he could bring. “If you’re signing me to be the best reliever in your ‘pen, you’re probably maybe a little misguided,” he told Speier. “But you shouldn’t sign me to be the worst guy in your ‘pen, either. Somewhere in the middle. That’s where I want to be.”
- Manager John Farrell feels that Will Middlebrooks‘ struggles aren’t solely due to a nagging hand injury, writes Sean McAdam of CSNNE.com. “I don’t think he’s been limited any (more) than other players that deal with nagging ailments over the course of a full season,” said Farrell. McAdam writes that the Sox are frustrated with Middlebrooks’ unwillingness to commit to playing winter ball, and his spot on next year’s roster appears in jeopardy. In Thursday’s edition of his ESPN Insider-only blog, Buster Olney writes that it makes little sense for Middlebrooks to decline, as without a strong winter ball showing, he’d likely need a monster Spring Training to force his way onto the roster. Otherwise, he could be ticketed for a large portion of time with Triple-A Pawtucket next season.
- GM Ben Cherington spoke with Jen McCaffery of MassLive.com and noted that the Sox have received inquiries from multiple clubs about having their front office personnel and members of their coaching staff interview with other clubs. Cherington wouldn’t comment on specifics “out of respect for other teams,” but noted that he supported VP of player personnel Allard Baird as a candidate for the D’Backs GM opening: “They asked permission to talk to him and they talked to him. I would certainly support that because he’s an exceptional baseball executive and I’m sure they’ll have good choices but he would certainly be a good choice.”
AL West Notes: Moss, Maddux, Morales
Athletics slugger Brandon Moss has been playing through a hip injury that will require surgery (possibly a microfracture procedure) in the offseason, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports. An MRI revealed so much torn cartilage in Moss’ right hip that he’s struggling with bone-on-bone issues in the joint. Moss tells Slusser that he received a cortisone shot which should help him for the rest of the season and through the playoffs, but surgery is the only way to truly fix the issue. Though the injury has plagued him for much of the season, Moss said he didn’t blame his struggles on his hip.
More on those struggles and more from the AL West below…
- Fangraphs’ Eno Sarris had an excellent conversation with Moss about that slump in the A’s clubhouse recently (note that the conversation does feature some expletives). Moss says he places virtually no stock in batting average, as it is luck-driven and doesn’t adjust for defensive shifts. He spoke candidly about holes in his swing — pitches he knows he cannot reach and has to fight to lay off — as well as his batted ball profile, the reasoning behind his stance and the importance of prepping for his at-bats with video work. “…as a power hitter that doesn’t have a high average, I know I have to make my swings count,” said Moss, who also discussed how playing first base, the outfield and DH each affect his approach differently. Moss also touched on his time in previous organizations, noting that the Phillies didn’t feel he could consistently hit a Major League fastball — a notion at which he now laughs, as fastballs are far and away his best pitch.
- Rangers pitching coach Mike Maddux is hopeful that he will receive an interview for the team’s managerial vacancy, and GM Jon Daniels expects to sit down with him at season’s end, writes MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan. Even if Maddux isn’t hired (or even interviewed), he’s expected to return to the club as a pitching cocah in 2015, a club official tells Sullivan, and he’s “certain” to return if interim manager Tim Bogar gets the job. Maddux’s contract is up after the current season.
- Kendrys Morales has interest in bypassing free agency to sign a new deal with the Mariners, writes Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune. However, the caveat is that he’d like a multi-year deal, which would obviously give the team pause. Morales, who sat out through the June draft this season to avoid being stuck with another qualifying offer, has batted just .217/.266/.330 between Seattle and Minnesota. Some of those struggles, of course, are likely due to the long layoff between Major League appearances. Morales did enter 2014 as a lifetime .280/.333/.480 hitter, making the extreme drop-off in his production rather surprising. One rival exec whose team is in need of a run-producing bat expressed concern over a multi-year deal for Morales when asked by Dutton, though he did concede that there’s upside to the idea: “He’s a big risk. I doubt he gets more than two (years) after the year he’s had. But if he bounces back, a year from now we could all be talking about what a steal he was.”
NL East Notes: Phillies, Mets, Hand, Braves
Phillies shortstop Jimmy Rollins tells Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com that he isn’t sure when his team will contend again, but he’d like to see the club spend to work toward that in the offseason. Rollins has a specific target in mind, as well, having read up on Cuban slugger Yasmany Tomas. Rollins feels that if Tomas is the next slugger to follow in the footsteps of Jose Abreu, Yasiel Puig, Yoenis Cespedes and Jorge Soler, then “We’ve got to get our hands in that market.” Rollins continued, speaking more generically about spending to improve rather than just spending on Tomas: “We have enough money so you can’t say we don’t. … We’re in a big market, a big-market payroll. So you have to go out there and make it happen.”
Here’s more from Salisbury and more from the NL East…
- Jonathan Papelbon didn’t appeal his seven-game suspension because he didn’t want it to carry into next season, the closer tells Salisbury. Papelbon maintains that the crotch-grabbing gesture he made toward the fans was simply an adjustment: “I truly feel like if the fans really got to me and they wanted something I would have given them a little bit more than that.” Papelbon isn’t sure if the Phillies will try to limit his games finished to prevent his $13MM option (2016) from vesting, but he expects to be on the mound in save situations “regardless of what team” he is on.
- While there’s been plenty of speculation about the Mets trading Bartolo Colon this offseason, ESPN New York’s Adam Rubin wouldn’t be surprised to see the team trade Jon Niese or Dillon Gee instead (Twitter links). While neither would save the Mets as much as shedding Colon’s $11MM salary, Niese will earn $7MM in 2015 (and is guaranteed $16.5MM through 2016), while Gee’s arbitration salary could clear $5MM. Rubin feels if the Mets do indeed make trades to shed salary and free up room for free agent pursuits, the most likely candidates are those three pitchers and second baseman Daniel Murphy.
- Marlins lefty Brad Hand has made a good deal of improvements in terms of strike-throwing, writes Christina De Nicola of FOX Sports Florida, and he’ll enter 2015 with another chance to compete for a rotation spot. The out-of-options hurler and 2008 second-rounder finished the season with a 4.38 ERA in a career-high 111 innings. However, he was better in the second half, posting a 3.89 ERA over his final 13 appearances (11 starts). I’d imagine that, given the Marlins’ pitching depth, Hand could face an uphill battle in securing a rotation spot.
- While he didn’t elaborate much, David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution gets the sense that there will be significant roster turnover for the Braves this offseason (Twitter link). The Braves have struggled as a whole in 2014, but particularly at the plate, where the team has batted a combined .241/.306/.360. Each of those rate stats ranks 24th or worse in Major League Baseball, and the team’s 562 runs are 29th in the Majors, leading only the Padres.
Free Agent Profile: Yasmany Tomas
Last October, despite some questions about his ability, Cuban slugger Jose Abreu signed a six-year, $68MM contract with the White Sox heading into his age-27 season. Abreu’s MLB debut exceeded the most optimistic expectations, and now another Cuban player known for huge power is about to burst on the scene: Yasmany Tomas. Tomas, just 24 in November, defected from Cuba in June and should be granted MLB free agency shortly. He’s a right-handed-hitting corner outfielder with five years in Cuba’s Serie Nacional under his belt, and that experience, paired with his age, makes him exempt from international spending limitations. Teams will be able to spend whatever they wish to sign him.
Strengths/Pros
The opportunity to sign a potential star player for his prime years comes along at most only a handful of times each year, typically with players coming out of Cuba or Japan. Abreu was heading into his age 27 season, younger than any normal free agent but still potentially catching some decline at the tail end of his contract. Since Tomas turns 24 in November, a seven-year deal would conclude with his age-30 season. He really couldn’t be much younger without being subject to each team’s international signing bonus pool money, which currently tops out around $5MM and includes a 100% tax on overages of 10% or more.
Tomas’ best attribute is his power, a trait that is in short supply in today’s game. Only 14 players hit 30 or more home runs in 2013, and fewer might reach that threshold this year. Tomas has 70 raw power on the 20-80 scale, wrote Baseball America’s Ben Badler in June, so he profiles as one of those rare 30+ home run bats. “He’s got a ton of power,” countryman Rusney Castillo told WEEI’s Rob Bradford through a translator this month. Tomas has produced a .290/.345/.504 throughout his career in Cuba, although those numbers include a pair of seasons in which he slugged just .385 (2009-10) when he was still a teenager.
Though Tomas checks in at 6-foot-2 and 240 pounds, he’s “agile for his size,” according to MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez. Sanchez also says Tomas has a strong arm, so he fits the typical right field profile (some teams may prefer him in left, of course).
One more plus: Tomas is not subject to a qualifying offer, so the cost will be entirely financial. Other free agent hitters like Hanley Ramirez, Pablo Sandoval, Victor Martinez, Melky Cabrera, and Nelson Cruz are expected to receive and turn down qualifying offers and therefore require forfeiture of a draft pick.
Weaknesses/Cons
Badler wrote in his June scouting report that Tomas has below-average speed. More recently, Badler cited scouts who clocked Tomas at 6.9 seconds in the 60-yard dash at his Sunday showcase, which could be considered average speed.
Tomas may need some Triple-A seasoning, delaying his 2015 MLB impact. Badler noted that Tomas’ most recent season in Cuba wasn’t his best, writing, “This past season in Cuba…Tomas seemed to regress, even losing playing time in the second half, which one source said was the result of an arm injury he sustained crashing into an outfield wall in February.” Word is that Tomas has no physical issues currently.
Badler also noted that Tomas has shown some “swing-and-miss tendencies” and can struggle with quality breaking stuff. According to Sanchez, Tomas is “characterized as ‘high-risk, high-reward’ type of player in some international scouting circles.” He seems to come with a lesser reputation and less certainty than Abreu did last year. Not much has been written about Tomas’ defense, except that Sanchez feels the player has room for improvement.
Personal
Sanchez spent time with Tomas prior to his showcase this month, and was struck by his “youthful enthusiasm.” According to longtime friend Carlos Damas, Tomas is “always laughing.” I’ve heard Tomas likes to play video games in his spare time, and is often seen outside playing stickball with local kids.
The son of a fuel truck driver, Tomas is one of six children. As you might expect, the slugger found it very difficult to leave his home country.
Market
Tomas’ showcase in the Dominican Republic drew hundreds of scouts, wrote Badler. It is believed that nearly every team in baseball had a presence. MLB Network’s Peter Gammons pegged the Giants as the early favorite, also naming the Phillies, Padres, Rangers, and Tigers as potential front-runners. The Phillies had a private showcase with Tomas on Monday; the Rangers host him today. On Monday, Badler named the Rangers, Phillies, Yankees, Diamondbacks, Giants, and Mets as teams with a strong presence at Tomas’ showcase. The Marlins and Pirates were also known to be in attendance.
Expected Contract
Tomas’ agent Jay Alou told Jorge Ebro of El Nuevo Herald in early September that he expects to top the record contract for a Cuban player, which is Rusney Castillo’s seven-year, $72.5MM deal with the Red Sox signed in August. While a six-year deal is possible for Tomas, seven makes more sense, especially if Tomas is not expecting to spend all of 2015 in the Majors. Seven years also gives the opportunity of increasing the overall contract total.
I believe Abreu’s stellar season inflated the Cuban market, leading to a likely inferior player in Castillo to top his total guarantee less than one year later. Nothing pays in free agency like power, so I agree with Alou’s expectation of continuing to raise the bar beyond Castillo’s $72.5MM. On September 14th, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe passed along the opinion of one international scout who feels Tomas could command $100MM. Tomas’ range seems wide right now. I see about $80MM as the floor, and $110MM as the ceiling. My prediction at present: $105MM over seven years.
Photo courtesy of Alyson Boyer Rode.