2015 Free Agent Power Rankings
We’re always looking ahead at MLBTR, and it’s time for another entry in our 2015 Free Agent Power Rankings series. My May edition can be found here, and the full list of 2015 free agents is here.
1. Hanley Ramirez. A strong showing over the last month elevates Ramirez back to #1 status. All is quiet on the extension front, with the 30-year-old shortstop telling Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports on June 3rd that there are no ongoing talks.
2. Max Scherzer. Scherzer led the AL with a 1.83 ERA at the time of our last rankings, but since then he’s posted a 6.86 ERA in six starts, even though one of those outings was a shutout. There’s no reason to think the righty won’t get back on track, but some of the shine will come off if he finishes the season with an ERA in the high 3s.
3. Jon Lester. Things are going fine for Lester, who is looking for his first sub-3.50 ERA since 2011. Red Sox president and CEO Larry Lucchino said on WEEI in late May that he expects to engage in further extension talks, and GM Ben Cherington said something similar on June 10th.
4. James Shields. Lester and Shields were unlikely to uphold their matching 2.67 ERAs from our last rankings, but a hittable five-start run has brought the Royals’ ace up to 3.50. Nonetheless, his team has won ten straight and sits in first place in the AL Central. At the least, the Royals’ success shuts down the speculation from a few weeks ago that Shields could be a trade candidate. That means he’s likely to come with a qualifying offer attached.
5. Pablo Sandoval. Sandoval has been crushing the ball over his last 35 games, and I’ve moved the 27-year-old up to his best spot yet. If he can stay healthy, Sandoval seems a good bet for his first 20 home run season since 2011. The Giants have the best record in the NL and a track record of keeping their own, so it’s quite possible Sandoval never reaches the open market.
6. Nelson Cruz. With 10 home runs since our last rankings and an MLB-best 22 overall, I can’t keep denying Cruz his spot on this list. A 40 home run, 120 RBI season gets a guy paid, even if Cruz is lacking on defense, turns 35 next summer, and endured a Biogenesis suspension last year. Barring injury, Carlos Beltran‘s three-year, $45MM deal could be Cruz’s floor this winter even with a qualifying offer.
7. Victor Martinez. V-Mart is another aging bat-first player who continues to crush the ball. With good health, he seems likely to fly past his career high of 25 home runs, which happened eight seasons ago. Martinez is primed for his first All-Star appearance since 2010, as well as another multiyear contract.
8. Mike Morse. Morse rounds out our trio of bats newly joining these rankings. The 32-year-old is hitting .289/.343/.533 in 265 plate appearances and is looking like one of the offseason’s best bargains with a $6MM salary. Morse hasn’t exceeded 102 games in a season since 2011, so he must continue to avoid the DL to improve his earning power.
9. Asdrubal Cabrera. Another new entrant to the list, Cabrera has been solid but unspectacular with a .255/.323/.409 line on the season. He has age on his side, as he turns 29 in November. However, Cabrera’s defense at shortstop is generally considered below-average.
10. Russell Martin. Martin leads all starting catchers with a .418 OBP, though he missed nearly a month with a hamstring strain. His .272 batting average may not last, but he’s also posting a career-best 14.6% walk rate. Still only 31, Martin could be a popular free agent this winter.
These rankings have seen plenty of turnover since last month, with Ervin Santana, Justin Masterson, Chase Headley, Colby Rasmus, and Jed Lowrie dropping out of the top ten due to lackluster performance or injury. Meanwhile, Josh Beckett is making a push, including a May 25th no-hitter, 26-year-old Japanese righty Kenta Maeda has a 2.68 ERA through 11 starts, and Jason Hammel has become excellent trade bait for the Cubs. Melky Cabrera, Nick Markakis, Adam LaRoche, and Seth Smith are position players worth a mention.
Rosenthal On A’s, Angels, Rasmus, Indians
Somehow, someway, Athletics GM Billy Beane is going to pull something off between now and the deadline, writes Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Between the inexperience of Sonny Gray and Jesse Chavez, Scott Kazmir‘s past health troubles, and other question marks, the A’s could use some rotation reinforcements. Oakland isn’t deep enough in minor league talent to land the Cubs’ Jeff Samardzija or Rays’ David Price, but Rosenthal is certain that Beane will find something out there. Here’s more from his always informative column..
- The Angels don’t necessarily need rotation help, but they’d like to add a starter nonetheless. They are currently without a lefty reliever, and another rotation piece would allow them to move left-hander Hector Santiago to the bullpen. Rosenthal speculates that Padres righty Ian Kennedy and Mets righty Dillon Gee could be fits.
- The qualifying offer reduces the desire of some teams to trade QO candidates before they hit the open market. Blue Jays center fielder Colby Rasmus and Rockies left-hander Jorge De La Rosa are examples of potential free agents who are unlikely to be moved since their clubs would like the option of making an offer and an acquiring team would not be able to extend one. If not for the QO possibility, Toronto might opt to move Rasmus for a pitcher and re-install a platoon of Anthony Gose and Kevin Pillar in center.
- The Indians are in difficult spots with potential free agents shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera and right-hander Justin Masterson. Cabrera isn’t a strong QO candidate thanks to his so-so defense, so one option would be to trade him for another infielder to alternate with Mike Aviles. The same goes for Masterson, though he probably doesn’t have much trade value with an ERA of 5.05 with 8.1 K/9 and 4.7 BB/9.
Carlos Quentin Open To Waiving No-Trade Clause
If teams come calling on Padres outfielder Carlos Quentin, the veteran is willing to think about waiving his no-trade clause to help facilitate a deal, writes Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. Quentin’s complete no-trade clause was a big part of why he agreed to sign a team-friendly three-year, $27MM extension with San Diego a couple of years ago, but he would entertain the idea of going elsewhere this summer.
For Quentin to draw interest, of course, he’ll have to start doing better at the plate. He currently owns a .192/.294/.342 slash line with a .637 OPS, exactly 200 points below his career .837 OPS. However, there are no shortage of teams looking for a big bat and an American League team could use Quentin as a DH and give his aching knees a rest. Quentin won’t greenlight any old trade to the AL, but he’ll think about it for some teams.
A trade could put Quentin in a playoff race but it could also carry financial incentive. Quentin makes $9.5MM this year, $8MM in 2015, and has a $10MM mutual option in 2016. That option does not have a buyout, but a $3MM buyout will trigger if he can somehow play 320 games from 2013-15. It might be a longshot regardless — he is 212 games shy of that number — but he might have a shot of reaching 320 games if he plays DH over the next year and a half.
San Diego hasn’t yet approached Quentin about the possibility of a trade, but Heyman writes that they seem to be aware that he’s ready to be reasonable should the situation arise.
Mets Agree To Terms With Michael Conforto
The Mets have agreed to sign first-round pick Michael Conforto to a $2.97MM deal, according to Jim Callis of MLB.com (on Twitter). The Oregon State outfielder was rated as one of the best college bats in the draft by Callis. Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reported earlier this week that a deal was on the verge of being completed.
The reported value of the deal just about matches the slot for the No. 10 overall pick. The outfielder out of Oregon State was ranked as the No. 8 prospect in this draft by ESPN’s Keith Law and Baseball America while Jonathan Mayo and Callis of MLB.com ranked him 17th.
Conforto batted a whopping .345/.504/.547 with seven homers, 16 doubles and a pair of triples in 59 games for Oregon State in 2014 — his junior season. Law praised Conforto’s power to his pull side, also noting that he works counts well and is able to hit the ball to the opposite field. Law expressed real concerns about Conforto’s defense, however, questioning his range and his throwing arm in left field. BA offered a bit of a different take, writing that he improved his previously fringy defense and is now adequate, and their scouting report projected him as a 20-25 homer hitter down the road. MLB.com shared some of the defensive concerns and worried that he might swing and miss too much, however that scouting report also projected him to hit 25-plus homers with regularity at his peak.
The Mets have reportedly signed third-rounder Milton Ramos for roughly $100K over slot, and they went $200K over slot on 13th-rounder Erik Manoah as well, but they didn’t have to go over the suggested value on their first-round pick. The team made up for its over-slot deals with Ramos and Manoah by saving $517K on its picks in the fourth through tenth rounds.
Steve Adams contributed to this post.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Rangers Release Daniel Bard
The Rangers have released Daniel Bard, according to Gerry Fraley of the Dallas Morning News. Texas signed the 28-year-old to a minor league deal in late January.
Bard was once a dominant setup man for the Red Sox, but following an outstanding run from 2009-11, things have deteriorated significantly. A failed experiment by the Red Sox to move him into the rotation saw the beginning of severe control problems for Bard and health issues haven’t helped things either.
In those strong three seasons for the Red Sox, Bard posted a 2.88 ERA with 9.7 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9. In a handful of outings for the Rangers’ Single-A affiliate this season, Bard allowed 13 runs, allowed nine walks, and hit seven batters.
Stark On Rays, Zobrist, Utley, Cubs, Padres
The trade deadline is rapidly approaching and while things figure to get exciting over the next month and change, not everyone is drooling over what might be available. “To be honest, I don’t see much out there,” an official of one contender told Jayson Stark of ESPN.com. “Who’s even selling? And what are they selling? I know there will be guys to trade for. But where’s the quality?” The whole column is worth a read, but here are some of the highlights from Stark’s latest..
- The Rays front office believed that they had the talent to win it all this year and that optimism could play into how they approach the deadline. The Rays aren’t selling and Stark writes that if they believe what they have can power them to a championship next season, they might stand pat and keep the band together. Teams that have spoken with Tampa Bay see a fire sale as unlikely.
- The Rays might listen on Ben Zobrist, but one exec who has spoken with the club gets the sense that it would be “really, really difficult” for them to part with him. The exception to all of this, of course, is David Price.
- The Phillies are expected to be open for business between now and the deadline, but they might not like the offers that come in. “Look at their trade chips,” said an NL executive. “Even if they blow it up, dangle [Cole] Hamels and dangle all these other guys, each one of those guys has some reason it will be hard for them to get back what they want.“
- Meanwhile, one exec flatly said a Chase Utley trade is “not happening.” The sticker price might not be met on Phillies like Cliff Lee, Jonathan Papelbon, and Jimmy Rollins, but teams see Domonic Brown as someone whom the Phillies would like to swap for a different young change-of-scenery candidate.
- Teams that have spoken with the Cubs expect them to move pitcher Jason Hammel in the next two weeks. That could just be the warm up for Jeff Samardzija, but they continue to tell teams that they’d like to hammer out a new contract with him. This week we learned that the Cubs ace rejected a five-year, $85MM+ offer.
- While some teams are beating around the bush, the Padres are aggressively letting teams know that they want to sell. All of their outfielders, except Cameron Maybin, are available, and that includes Seth Smith, Chris Denorfia, and Will Venable.
- Several teams report the Dodgers are telling them they’ll listen right now on every one of their outfielders except Yasiel Puig.
- The Yankees have been asking almost exclusively about starting pitching in their preliminary conversations.
- Teams that have talked with the Tigers say they’re focused on bullpen upgrades, not shortstop.
- The Angels are in the bullpen market, but they’re looking hard at left-handed-relief options, not closers.
- Things are murky around the D’Backs since no one really knows who is in charge their or what their goals are.
- Royals GM Dayton Moore has indicated that the Royals can add payroll, but clubs believe that he won’t get to go-ahead to spend until mid-July. When and if KC starts buying, they are expected to target right fielders and bullpen arms since that is what they’ve been asking about in conversations.
This Date In Transactions History: June 19th
Here’s a look back at some of the more important and interesting transactions that have taken place on June 19th..
- On this date in 2006, the Red Sox designated J.T. Snow for assignment. Snow, who had a very notable career with the Giants, had a rather forgetful partial season in Boston. After batting .205/.340/.205 in 38 games and seeing sparse playing time, Snow requested to be DFA’d. That marked the “real” end of his playing career, though San Francisco signed Snow to a one-day contract in September of 2008. Snow took the field on September 27th against the Dodgers and was removed before the first pitch to allow him to retire as a member of the Giants.
- On June 19, 1999, the Dodgers signed Hong-Chih Kuo to a free agent contract with a $1.25MM bonus. Unfortunately, elbow problems kept Kuo from taking the mound for the Dodgers until the 2006 season. Kuo proved to be well worth the wait. From 2005-2010, the left-hander posted a 3.19 ERA with 10.5 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 and even earned an All-Star selection in ’10.
- On this date in 1995, Darryl Strawberry signed with the Yankees after serving a suspension stemming from cocaine use. In 32 regular season games for the Bombers that season, Strawberry posted a .276/.364/.448 slash line. Over parts of five seasons with the Bombers, Strawberry slashed .255/.362/.502.
Deadline Notes: Utley, Rollins, Mayberry, Royals, Yankees, Mets
There’s been quite a bit of chatter regarding Jeff Samardzija and the rest of the Cubs’ pitchers over the past few days, due largely to the fact that everyone is aware the Cubs will be sellers at this summer’s non-waiver trade deadline. For other clubs, the trade picture isn’t so clear. Here are some notes on players that are potential trade targets and on which clubs should buy and which should sell…
- Phillies president David Montgomery tells Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer that the club can’t be stubborn and close itself off from trading certain players if it’s the best thing for the team — and that includes longtime cornerstones Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins. Referring to Utley, Montgomery noted that he’d like his second baseman to remain with the club beyond his playing days. Of course, both players have 10-and-5 rights and can veto any trade.
- For his part, Rollins softened his stance on waiving his no-trade rights after surpassing Mike Schmidt for the franchise hits lead this weekend, Gelb notes. Said Rollins: “It really depends if everything is blown up. Then, you take that into consideration. Fortunately, I don’t have to worry about that right now. But if that time does come, and it’s time to go … people move on.”
- Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com reports that the Red Sox and Yankees have some interest in John Mayberry Jr. as outfield depth. Boston has scouted several recent Phillies games, and one “plugged-in Major League source” tells Salisbury that the Yankees are a team to watch in regards to Mayberry as well.
- In an ESPN Insider piece, Dan Szymborski opines that the Royals need to make a bold acquisition in an attempt to take the AL Central. Szymborski’s ZiPS projection system has the Royals as a 50-50 chance to make the playoffs and a 29 percent chance to win the division right now. With five regular position players ranking at or below replacement level (per Baseball-Reference), the team needs to make a splash, as the Tigers are far more vulnerable than most expected. He suggests that third base and right field are the two most viable spots, listing Aaron Hill, Ben Zobrist and Chase Headley as possible targets.
- Yankees GM Brian Cashman expects to make a trade or multiple trades this July, writes Barry M. Bloom of MLB.com. “I feel that we need to get better from within, and I think I can speed up the process if I run into something outside at the same time,” said Cashman. “We usually make moves every year, so I expect to make moves again.” Bloom runs down a list of trade targets and notes that the stock of Dellin Betances has skyrocketed this season, though he wonders if Cashman would be willing to include a potential future closer for a short-term fix. Cashman said he didn’t want to wait to make a move but added that prices are often highest early on in trade season.
- Though Joel Sherman of the New York Post said not long ago that the Mets should act boldly as buyers, the team’s recent woes have him convinced that the opposite may now be true. After a 4-11 skid, he writes that the Mets should deal two of Jon Niese, Bartolo Colon and Dillon Gee this summer and also make Daniel Murphy available in trades. Doing so will bring back valuable offensive prospects and position the Mets well for a high draft pick in 2015. He notes that Sandy Alderson’s regime has done well in trades, bringing in Zack Wheeler, Noah Syndergaard, Travis d’Arnaud, Vic Black and Dilson Herrera by trading veteran pieces.
Mitch Moreland Scheduled For Season-Ending Surgery
After debating his alternatives for a little more than a week, Rangers first baseman Mitch Moreland is scheduled to undergo season-ending surgery on his left ankle next Monday, MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan reports. The Rangers expect Moreland to be healthy for Opening Day 2015.
The 28-year-old Moreland batted just .246/.297/.347 in 184 plate appearances for Texas this season despite being heavily platooned in an attempt to minimize his long-standing struggles against left-handed pitching.
General manager Jon Daniels shed some light on Moreland’s struggles in talking with Sullivan, noting that the recent ankle injury isn’t the only ailment Moreland has dealt with this season: “He has also had lower back stuff that we really didn’t talk about that he played through,” Daniels said. “In talking to him, this might put an end to the issues he has had to fight through.”
Moreland is earning $2.65MM this season as a first-time arbitration eligible player. Despite his lackluster performance and limited playing time, Moreland will likely be in line for a small raise in arbitration this coming offseason, which could make him a non-tender candidate in the offseason (as Gerry Fraley of the Dallas Morning News noted earlier in the week).
The injury is hardly anything new for the Rangers, who have already lost Prince Fielder, Matt Harrison, Martin Perez and likely Jurickson Profar for the 2014 season. Additionally, Derek Holland has yet to throw a pitch in 2014, and Geovany Soto is not yet recovered from knee surgery he underwent in Spring Training. Texas has also lost several bullpen and bench pieces to injury.
Yesterday, the team signed veteran slugger Carlos Pena to a minor league deal in an effort to replenish some first base depth.
Draft Signings: Anfernee Seymour
Here are Wednesday’s notable mid- to late-round draft signings, with all slot information coming courtesy of Baseball America…
- The Marlins have agreed to an over-slot, $400K bonus with seventh-rounder Anfernee Seymour, reports Chris Cotillo of MLB Daily Dish (on Twitter). BA ranked Seymour 396th among draft prospects, noting that the high school outfielder has legitimate 80-grade speed and a strong throwing arm that make him an intriguing center field prospect. A native of the Bahamas, Seymour’s hit tool raises question, and he has well below-average power, per BA. His slot value was $205,700.