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Reds’ Julian Aguiar Considering Tommy John Surgery

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9:19pm: Shelton issued a correction to his previous report (on X). Aguiar is considering undergoing Tommy John but has not yet undergone any procedure. He is getting a second opinion.

4:20pm: Reds right-hander Julian Aguiar recently underwent Tommy John surgery and will miss the entire 2025 season, per Mark Sheldon of MLB.com on X. Sheldon also relays that the club has fired three coaches: hitting coach Joel McKeithan as well as assistant hitting coaches Terry Bradshaw and Tim LaMonte.

Aguiar, 23, was able to make his major league debut this year. As the Reds dealt with multiple rotation injuries, he was selected to the big league roster in August. He made seven starts, allowing 6.25 earned runs per nine innings, before landing on the 15-day injured list in September due to a right elbow sprain. It now seems that the determination was made in the past few weeks that he would require surgery. Lefty Brandon Williamson also required Tommy John surgery last month, so that’s two Cincinnati hurlers that are now slated to miss the upcoming season.

It’s an unfortunate blow for him and the team. Given that Tommy John rehabs generally take 14 months or longer, Aguiar will miss the entire 2025 campaign, depriving the club of pitching depth and costing him a year of development. Aguiar is currently listed as the club’s #9 prospect at Baseball America while FanGraphs had him at #7 in April. Both outlets consider him a possible backend starter someday, but that will have to wait until 2026 at the earliest.

A 12th-round pick from 2021, Aguiar has climbed the ladder since then. In 2024, in addition to his major league debut, he tossed 116 1/3 innings on the farm between Double-A and Triple-A. In that time, he had a 3.79 ERA, 19.7% strikeout rate and 6% walk rate. If there’s one silver lining for Aguiar, it’s that he’ll collect major league pay and service time at least through the end of next year, assuming the Reds keep him on the roster through the winter.

Turning to the coaching staff, it was undoubtedly a disappointing year for the Cincinnati offense. The club had graduated a boatload of exciting position players in 2023 and the club had postseason aspirations going into 2024. But Cincinnati hitters put up a collective slash line of .231/.305/.388 in 2024. That production translated to a wRC+ of 87, putting them ahead of only the White Sox, Rockies, Pirates and Marlins.

It’s always tough to decipher whether credit/blame should be assigned to coaches or players but that’s especially true in this case as the Reds were missing many of their expected contributors for much of the year. Noelvi Marté received an 80-game PED suspension in March while players like Matt McLain, TJ Friedl, Jeimer Candelario, Jake Fraley, Christian Encarnacion-Strand and others spent significant time on the injured list.

Regardless, the club has decided a significant overhaul is needed and is moving on from three hitting coaches, who all joined going into 2023. McKeithan was a minor league hitting coach for the Phillies in 2019, despite being just 26 years old for much of that season. He also worked in the Tigers’ minor league system before getting hired by the Reds as an assistant hitting coach on the major league staff for the 2022 season. One year later, he was promoted to the top hitting coach job but is now out after two seasons in that job.

Bradshaw played in the majors in the ’90s but has been a coach for a number of years now. He was working in the Royals’ organization back in 2000 and got promoted to their big league hitting coach job in 2018. He was fired in 2022 and came to the Reds as an assistant to McKeithan. LaMonte was also hired as an assistant on McKeithan’s staff at that time after working for the Astros and Mets.

The Reds recently fired manager David Bell and hired Terry Francona to replace him. It’s not uncommon for coaching changes to accompany managerial changes, so Francona will seemingly be looking to shake things up on the hitting side of things at least.

Mark Melancon Joins San Diego State Coaching Staff

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San Diego State announced that longtime reliever Mark Melancon has joined the school’s baseball program as the pitching development coordinator.  Melancon hasn’t pitched since the 2022 season, so this new job implies that the 39-year-old has ended his playing career after 14 Major League seasons.

“It’s exciting to be part of a staff that has great experience and a clear vision on what needs to happen to be successful at the highest level.  I’m eager to help these players compete for a national championship and hopefully move on to the next level,” Melancon said.

Assuming that Melancon is indeed hanging up his glove, he’ll finish his career with 262 saves and an excellent 2.94 ERA, over 726 2/3 innings in the majors.  As opposed to most bullpen aces, Melancon didn’t bring heavy velocity or big strikeout numbers, instead relying on superb control and a knack for keeping the ball on the ground.  Melancon had a 55.3% groundball rate over his career, the seventh-highest grounder rate of any pitcher in baseball (minimum 700 innings) within the 2009-22 timeframe.

Selected by the Yankees in the ninth round of the 2006 draft, Melancon ended up pitching for nine different clubs at the MLB level after he made his debut in the Show in 2009.  The travels started early, as Melancon changed uniforms via three trades in as many years — from the Yankees to the Astros at the 2010 trade deadline, from Houston to Boston in December 2011, and then from Boston to Pittsburgh in December 2012.  Though Melancon had seemingly broken out with a nice 2011 season, the rebuilding Astros still dealt him, and he then struggled through a rough season with the Red Sox.

The move to Pittsburgh brought both some stability for Melancon, and set the stage for the best stretch of his career.  Melancon became a dominant set-up man and then closer over his three-plus seasons with the Pirates, delivering a sterling 1.80 ERA and 130 saves over 260 1/3 innings in a Bucs uniform.  The right-hander was named to three All-Star teams during this stretch, and finished eighth in NL Cy Young Award voting in 2015 after posting a league-best 51 saves.

Free agency loomed for Melancon after the 2016 season, however, and the Pirates weren’t going to pay top dollar for a star closer.  The result was yet another trade, as Melancon was dealt to the Nationals at the 2016 trade deadline, and he continued to pitch well for Washington throughout the rest of the regular season and into the playoffs.

The big free agent payday then came that winter when Melancon inked a four-year, $62MM deal with the Giants, which briefly stood as the biggest contract ever given to a relief pitcher.  While Melancon had a respectable 3.67 ERA over 115 1/3 innings with San Francisco, it wasn’t the kind of elite performance that was expected from the hefty contract, and injuries also hampered Melancon’s effectiveness.

As the Giants entered a partial rebuild and looked to cut payroll, Melancon was moved to the Braves at the 2019 trade deadline, and had an uptick in results (2.78 ERA in 22 2/3 IP) during the shortened 2020 season.  A one-year, $3MM deal with the Padres followed that offseason, and Melancon enjoyed one final All-Star campaign by posting a 2.23 ERA and 39 saves for San Diego.  This led to a two-year, $14MM contract with the Diamondbacks in December 2021, but Melancon struggled in 2022 and then missed all of 2023 due to a shoulder strain.

We at MLB Trade Rumors congratulate Melancon on a terrific playing career, and we wish him the best as he moves into the collegiate coaching ranks.

Ben Casparius Replaces Michael Grove On Dodgers’ NLDS Roster

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The Dodgers and Major League Baseball both announced an injury-related substitution on Los Angeles’ NLDS roster.  Right-hander Michael Grove has been removed in favor of fellow righty Ben Casparius.  No specifics were given on Grove’s injury within the press release, but Dodgers manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including David Vassegh of 570 AM Radio) that Grove is dealing with a shoulder injury.

Grove came out of the bullpen in Sunday’s Game 2, and he allowed a Xander Bogaerts solo homer before striking out Jake Cronenworth to end the top of the eighth inning.  These were Grove’s only two batters faced, and while the inning break seemed like the reason for his removal from the game, it could be that his shoulder problem necessitated another pitching change.  With the Dodgers down 7-1 after eight innings, a healthy Grove might’ve eaten one more inning of mop-up work.

Working as a starter, reliever, and swingman since his MLB debut in 2022, Grove has a 5.48 ERA over 149 1/3 career innings in the majors, including a 5.12 ERA in 51 frames in 2024.  His secondary numbers paints a somewhat more promising picture than his ERA, though Grove has hurt his cause by being a little homer-prone.  Injuries have also been a factor, as he has missed time in each of the two seasons with lat-related issues, as well as a groin strain that sidelined him for about six weeks of the 2023 campaign.  The Dodgers have also liberally moved Grove up and down between the majors and Triple-A, so he hasn’t had a ton of time to settle into a big league role.

League rules dictate that if a team makes an injury substitution on a series roster, the injured player is also ineligible for the following series.  Grove therefore isn’t able to play in the NLCS if the Dodgers advance past the Padres, though his health is the larger concern in general, given the ominous nature of shoulder-related discomfort.  Los Angeles has already had to navigate a ton of pitching injuries throughout the season and into October, so Grove’s absence leaves the club short another arm.

It does provide quite the opportunity for Casparius, who only just made his big league debut back on August 31.  A fifth-round pick for the Dodgers in the 2021 draft, Casparius has pitched in all of three MLB games, and he has a 2.16 ERA and an impressive 32.4% strikeout rate over 8 1/3 innings.  He also has a 10.8% walk rate, which tracks with the rather so-so control Casparius exhibited over four minor league seasons.  The Dodgers aren’t likely to use Casparius in any high-leverage situations during the NLDS, and it is possible he doesn’t see any action at all in the series barring another lopsided score.

In other notable injury news for L.A., Freddie Freeman is in tonight’s starting lineup for Game 3.  Freeman’s attempts to play through a severe left ankle sprain and bone bruise seemed to take a downturn when he made an early exit from Game 2, but Roberts told reporters (including Sportnet’s Hazel Mae) that Freeman completed his pregame preparations without issue.  “It’s a go as of now….unless I hear otherwise, he’s going to be in there,” Roberts said.

Offseason Outlook: Cincinnati Reds

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The Reds hoped to make the jump from underdogs with an exciting young core to legitimate playoff contenders. It didn't happen this year. With a splash managerial hire and returns to health from most of the rotation, expectations will again be high going into 2025.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Hunter Greene, RHP: $47MM through 2028 (including buyout of '29 club option)
  • Jeimer Candelario, 3B: $30MM through 2026 (including buyout of '27 club option)
  • Jonathan India, 2B: $7.05MM through 2025 (eligible for arbitration in '26)

Option Decisions

  • RHP Nick Martinez holds $12MM player option (no buyout)
  • RHP Emilio Pagán holds $8MM player option ($250K buyout)
  • Team, RHP Jakob Junis hold $8MM mutual option; Brewers are responsible for $1MM of the $3MM buyout
  • Team holds $3.5MM option on LHP Brent Suter ($500K buyout)
  • Team holds $3.5MM option on C Luke Maile ($500K buyout)

2025 financial commitments (assuming Martinez opt-out and Pagán opts in): $39.05MM
Total future commitments (assuming Martinez opt-out and Pagán opts in): $95.05MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: France, Antone, Espinal, Fraley, Wynns, Gibaut

Free Agents

The Reds have begun their offseason with a bang. As the season wound down, Cincinnati dismissed sixth-year skipper David Bell. That wasn't especially surprising with the team en route to a 77-85 finish that represented a five-game drop relative to last season. Bell's replacement was a stunner. The Reds brought Terry Francona out of what proved to be a one-year retirement. Landing one of the sport's most respected managers should renew optimism going into 2025.

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MLB To Take Over Broadcasts For Twins, Guardians, Brewers In 2025

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Major League Baseball announced that it will take over the distribution of local broadcasts for the Twins, Guardians and Brewers in 2025. All three of those clubs previously had deals with Diamond Sports Group, which owns the Bally Sports Networks. But those deals all expired after 2024 and it was reported this week that Diamond is planning to make cutbacks to the number of teams on its slate of baseball broadcasts.

MLB will now be handling the broadcasts of at least six clubs, as it was already distributing for the Padres, Diamondbacks and Rockies. Fans will be able to sign up for direct-to-consumer streaming packages without blackouts, except for games that are being broadcasted nationally. The Rangers also saw their Diamond deal expire in 2024 but seem to be in a different situation for now. MLB announced that Texas wouldn’t be continuing with Diamond but are exploring local options for 2025.

The Regional Sports Network model has been decaying for many years and this news is latest part of the crumbling. For years, broadcasters would pay clubs for the right to have exclusive local broadcasting rights, which would often lead to frustration among fans. Baseball games were harder to access and some fans found themselves in the blackout areas of multiple different teams. However, these deals were a significant source of annual revenue for teams.

But as consumers cut cords and move away from buying cable packages, the model has been less effective and several deals have already fallen apart. Diamond has been going through the bankruptcy process since early in 2023. As mentioned, the Padres, Diamondbacks and Rockies didn’t have a local broadcasting deal for 2024. The Padres and Diamondbacks had previously been with Diamond while the Rockies were with AT&T SportsNet Rocky Mountain. Fans in those markets were able to pay MLB directly to watch the team in 2024, with no blackouts, for $19.99 per month or $99.99 for the year. Dan Hayes of The Athletic relays on X that the Twins will be charging a similar price next year.

While that was a nice development for many fans, it wasn’t good for the teams. By all accounts, the revenue generated from this model is lower than what the clubs were previously receiving from the cable model, as the latter led to a passive stream of revenue from fans who signed up for cable packages but didn’t watch much or any baseball. The direct-to-consumer model cuts out the middleman but is dependent on active fan interest.

The MLB announcement today says that the “reach” of the Guardians via RSN was 1.45 million homes, with the Twins at 1.08 million. The league relays that between four and five million homes will now have access to their local clubs via these streaming options, but not all of them will sign up and it’s unclear what sort of rates are to be expected. Twins president Dave St. Peter expects the club to receive less broadcast revenue in 2025, per Aaron Gleeman of the Athletic on X, though he added that he expects greater revenue in the future.

In short, the move is good for fans in terms of simply watching the games. But since it’s bad for the teams on the business side, it could have spillover effects into roster construction. Last offseason, declining broadcast revenue seemed to have significant ripple effects in terms of transactions. The Padres trading Juan Soto to the Yankees, for instance, seemed to be motivated by the Friars needing to make budget cuts. Teams like the Rangers, Twins and others either cut their payrolls or didn’t raise them as much as expected, which led to certain free agents having fewer suitors than anticipated and a weak market for free agents in general.

Whether this will have an immediate impact on the decisions of the Twins, Guardians and Brewers will remain to be seen. The Twins already cut their payroll significantly a year ago in the wake of uncertainty with Diamond. There was seemingly some chance of the deal collapsing before the Twins re-signed for another year but with reduced fees. Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the payroll went from $154MM in 2023 to $127MM in 2024. Per recent reporting, the club isn’t planning further payroll cuts but it doesn’t appear as though an increase is coming either. Per Gleeman on X, St. Peter doesn’t think this news impacts the payroll relative to those recent reports as the club already knew this was coming.

The Rangers appear to be exploring a different path. Last month, it was reported by Tom Friend of the Sports Business Journal that the club is looking into developing their own direct-to-consumer streaming service, independent of MLB. Presumably, the benefit to handling it themselves would mean they reap more direct revenue, but they would also spend more on the day-to-day costs of running the operation. If they eventually find this path too challenging, it seems fair to assume that letting MLB take over would be a fallback option.

Uncertainty around the broadcast situation seemed to impact the Rangers last year. Though they won the 2023 World Series, they followed that up with a relatively modest offseason, not signing any deals larger than the two years and $22MM they gave to Tyler Mahle. How their current plan will play out perhaps has even less certainty than the other three clubs, so it will be an interesting situation to watch.

There will be other long-term questions to be answered in time. Commissioner Rob Manfred intends to market a streaming package consisting of multiple teams at some point in the future, perhaps as soon as 2025. MLB.TV has existed for years but with consumers affected by local blackout rules. The idea going forward would be to essentially make a blackout-free version of MLB.TV. There would be complications in such a plan, as clubs like the Yankees, Dodgers, Cubs and others handle their own games via broadcasters that are at least partially owned by the team. Given their relatively stable footing, they would have less interest in joining such a plan with the other clubs.

As for Diamond, they had deals with 12 clubs in 2024. It was recently revealed that they are only fully committed to one for 2025, which is Atlanta. As part of that reporting last week, Diamond was apparently willing to renegotiate with other clubs but wanted to pay reduced fees. It seems that won’t happen with the four clubs mentioned in today’s announcement, so the Diamond slate will be down to a maximum of eight clubs in 2025 but perhaps that will go even lower of some others decide to make a deal like this with MLB instead.

Rockies Sign Bud Black To One-Year Extension

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The Rockies have agreed to a one-year contract extension with manager Bud Black, the team announced. The deal will keep Black in Colorado for the 2025 season, which will be his ninth with the club. In additional Rockies news, the team also revealed that they have parted ways with bullpen coach Reid Cornelius and assistant hitting coach P.J. Pilittere.

Black is the winningest manager in Rockies history and the only manager to lead the team to consecutive postseason appearances (2017-18). However, both of those accomplishments come with an asterisk; the Rockies are 537-657 (.450) under Black’s leadership, and they have not reached the playoffs in seven years. The team’s failures certainly cannot be attributed to Black alone, but it is still unusual to see a manager stick around so long with so little success. Only four other managers have been with their current clubs at least as long as Black has been with the Rockies, and all four of them – Kevin Cash (Rays), Dave Roberts (Dodgers), Brian Snitker (Braves), and Torey Lovullo (Diamondbacks) – have had significantly more recent success than Black.

Nonetheless, the Rockies expressed confidence in Black, with general manager Bill Schmidt stating, “We believe this team is heading in the right direction” and praising his manager’s “skills, experience, and knowledge” in a recent press release. Considering those comments, one might think the Rockies would want to give Black a longer-term deal. After all, managers on expiring contracts are typically seen as lame ducks. In Black’s case, however, this is yet another one-year deal; he also signed single-year contracts entering 2022, ’23, and ’24. Reporter Nick Groke once described the skipper as being “on a rolling year-to-year contract.” It’s possible the unique contract situation is just as much for Black’s benefit as Colorado’s, giving him the chance to walk away after every season.

The Rockies finished the 2024 season 61-101, the worst record in the National League and the second-worst record in MLB. Some promising young players took big steps forward – namely Brenton Doyle and Ezequiel Tovar – but this team is still far off from being taken seriously as a contender. After so many losing seasons in a row, plenty of fans would surely love to see a shakeup in the dugout, but practically speaking, it’s hard to imagine a new manager would make much of a difference in 2025.

Before joining the Rockies ahead of the 2017 season, Black managed the Padres from 2007-15. He went 649-713 (.477), leading the team to just a pair of winning seasons in nine years. In the second of those winning seasons (2010), he was named NL manager of the year. Prior to his managerial career, Black was the pitching coach for the Angels from 2000-06, winning a World Series with the club in 2002.

Cornelius and Pilittere both joined the Rockies coaching staff ahead of the 2022 season. Following the conclusion of his playing career in 2000, Cornelius worked as a coach in the Marlins minor league system from 2003-09. In 2010, he took over as the bullpen coach for the big league club, a role he held until 2016. After a brief stint coaching in the Braves minor league system, he returned to the Marlins organization as a minor league pitching coach in 2019 and a major league rehab pitching coach in 2021.

Pilittere played in the Yankees minor league system from 2004-11 before taking on a minor league coaching role in 2012. In 2018, he was named the assistant hitting coach for the major league club. After four seasons, the Yankees let him go at the end of the 2021 campaign, and he signed on with the Rockies shortly thereafter.

Offseason Outlook: Chicago Cubs

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The Cubs enter 2025 with an excellent opportunity to make the playoffs for the first time under Jed Hoyer.  Cody Bellinger's decision will help determine Hoyer's path, but the club will be seeking help at catcher and in the rotation and bullpen.

Guaranteed Contracts

Option Decisions

  • Cody Bellinger, RF/CF/DH/1B: $27.5MM player option with a $2.5MM buyout.  Also has a $25MM player option for '26 with a $5MM buyout
  • Drew Smyly, RP: $10MM mutual option with a $2.5MM buyout

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

The Cubs' splashy hiring of Craig Counsell last November had minimal impact this year, as the club posted the same 83-79 record it had under David Ross in 2023.  A 17-10 April record created some optimism, but the Cubs went 65-67 thereafter and were mostly out of the playoff race by July.  Let's take a look around the Cubs' roster and figure out how president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer might go about creating a 90-win team for 2025, a particularly ripe opportunity with the Cardinals taking a rare step back.

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The Opener: NLDS, Machado, MLBTR Chat

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With all four Division Series tied at two, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. NLDS Game 3 today:

Both sets of NLDS matchups will have their third games today. The Phillies and Mets are set to suit up at Citi Field in New York at 5:08pm local time. The Dodgers and Padres will take the field at Petco Park in San Diego at 6:08pm local time. In Queens, lefty Sean Manaea (3.47 ERA) will take the mound after a strong rebound campaign opposite right-hander Aaron Nola (3.57 ERA). The Dodgers will send former ace Walker Buehler (5.38 ERA in 16 starts) to the mound amid a season where he’s struggled to return to form after nearly two calendar years on the shelf following his second career Tommy John surgery. The Padres will counter with offseason addition Michael King (2.95 ERA), who has excelled in his first year with the club.

2. MLB investigating dispute between Machado, Roberts:

Tonight’s NLDS game between the Dodgers and Padres comes with an additional layer of intrigue as Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic noted that the Dodgers have asked the league to review an alleged incident between club manager Dave Roberts and third baseman Manny Machado, wherein Roberts believes Machado threw a baseball at him between innings during Game 2 of the series on Sunday. Per Roberts, the ball ultimately didn’t come close to hitting him thanks to netting around the dugout but was thrown with “intent behind it.”

Machado, meanwhile, told Rosenthal that his throw was no different from the way he’d throw a ball toward any dugout, but not before questioning whether Game 2 starter Jack Flaherty intentionally threw at Padres star Fernando Tatis Jr. While it’s unclear if anything more will come of the situation following the league’s review of footage, the discourse following an already tense Game 2 that saw fans throw trash at Tatis and Padres outfielder Jurickson Profar seems likely to leave tensions high entering a pivotal Game 3 of a series currently tied at one game apiece.

3. MLBTR Chat today:

With the postseason now in full swing, 22 of MLB’s 30 teams have focused their attention on the coming winter while the rest of us have our eyes glued on playoff baseball. If you’re wondering about how the remaining contenders stack up with all four LDS tied 1 to 1 or how your club could approach the coming offseason, MLBTR’s Steve Adams is holding a live chat with readers at 3pm CT today. You can click here to ask a question in advance, join in live once the chat begins, or read the transcript once the chat is complete.

Offseason Outlook: Texas Rangers

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The Rangers never seemed to snap out of a World Series hangover, as the team stumbled to a 78-84 record one year after capturing its first championship.  Texas now has several holes to be filled on the pitching staff, and the lingering question of how much money is available for roster upgrades.

Guaranteed Contracts

Option Decisions

2025 financial commitments: $136.75MM ($170.25MM if all options are exercised)
Total future commitments: $469.75MM ($503.25MM if all options are exercised)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

The first bit of the Rangers' offseason business was addressed in September, when Chris Young was signed to a new contract extension and promoted from GM to president of baseball operations.  Young's previous deal was up at the end of the 2024 season, and despite this year's struggles in Arlington, the Commissioner's Trophy from 2023 was surely enough for Young to earn some extra job security.

Now entering his third winter in charge of the Texas front office, Young faces another unique challenge.  The 2022-23 offseason was all about the Rangers trying to finally get back into contention, and Jacob deGrom's five-year, $185MM free agent deal added to the club's spending spree from the previous offseason under former PBO Jon Daniels.  Last offseason, with a championship now in tow, Young basically just stood pat, as the Rangers scaled back spending due to the big salary commitments already in place, and plenty of concern over the team's broadcasting revenues.

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