MLB Trade Rumors

The Astros are “making a push” to sign left-hander Josh Hader, per a report from Chandler Rome and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The southpaw is represented by CAA Sports.

It hasn’t yet been reported what kind of contract discussions are taking place between the club and Hader’s representatives, but it will undoubtedly involve significant numbers. It was reported earlier this month that Hader was aiming to set a new benchmark for relievers by surpassing the Edwin Díaz deal from just over a year ago. Díaz re-signed with the Mets for $102MM over five years, though deferrals dropped the competitive balance tax value to $93MM. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted that Hader could indeed set a new record by getting to $110MM over six years.

Those hefty proposals are a reflection of Hader’s incredible work to this point in his career. Over 349 career appearances dating back to his 2017 debut, he has allowed just 2.50 earned runs per nine innings. His 10.2% walk rate is a tad high, but he has punched out 42.2% of batters that have stepped into the box against him. That included a strange blip in 2022 when his ERA jumped to 5.22, but the peripherals were still strong and he righted the ship last year, getting that ERA all the way down to 1.28.

The vast majority of that work has come as a closer, with Hader having racked up at least 33 saves in each of the past four full seasons, as well as 13 in the shortened 2020 campaign. These kinds of elite closers don’t grow on trees. That 42.2% strikeout rate over the past seven years is the highest in baseball among those with at least five innings pitched. Díaz has punched out 40.3% of opponents in his career, though with a better walk rate than Hader and more ground balls.

If the Astros end up sealing the deal with Hader, the details will come out and we will find out how the deal compares to the one Díaz signed with the Mets. It hasn’t been a secret that Houston has been looking to upgrade its bullpen, but it is at least a bit surprising to see them going after the top available free agent. The club has only once pushed their payroll into competitive balance tax territory, and that was in the shortened 2020 season when MLB suspended the tax system amid the pandemic.

That means the franchise still technically hasn’t “paid” the tax, but it seems as though 2024 may be the year. Roster Resource currently estimates that the club’s CBT number is just over $236MM, with this year’s base threshold set for $237MM. That means that adding essentially any money at all would push them over the line. If Hader were to secure the six-year, $110MM deal that MLBTR predicted, that would come with a CBT hit of $18.33MM.

The fact that the club may be willing to finally step onto the other side of that line is perhaps a reflection of their bullpen situation. They lost each of Héctor Neris, Phil Maton and Ryne Stanek to free agency at the end of last year, subtracting three notable arms from their relief mix. General manager Dana Brown has frequently spoken about the need for bullpen upgrades this winter, and the situation got even worse with the recent news that Kendall Graveman will miss the entire 2024 campaign after undergoing shoulder surgery.

The club still has Ryan Pressly and Bryan Abreu as a strong foundation in the bullpen, but there’s plenty of uncertainty beyond those two. Rafael Montero parlayed a strong 2022 into a three-year, $34.5MM deal with Houston but then posted an ERA of 5.08 last year. Other than swingman Brandon Bielak, they don’t have any other relievers with two years of major league service time.

This week, Brown maintained that the club’s bullpen plans wouldn’t “intensify” due to the Graveman news, but perhaps it has inspired owner Jim Crane to push beyond his usual limits in order to address the relief corps. One pitcher wouldn’t eliminate the concerns around the overall depth, but the trio of Hader, Pressly and Abreu would be one of the most dominant late-inning groups in the sport.

Of course, it’s also possible the club could look to move some other contracts around in order to limbo back under the line, but that would come with its own challenges. There had been some speculation earlier this winter that Framber Valdez could be available for financial reasons, but that seemed to be a bit of wishful thinking coming from rival clubs as opposed to the Astros genuinely looking to move him. The lefty is going to make $12.1MM this year, and has one more season of arbitration control remaining, but trading him would open up a big hole in the rotation that is already going to start the season without Luis García and Lance McCullers Jr. due to injuries.

Beyond Valdez, Graveman has a CBT hit of $8MM but would be hard to move since he’s going to miss the entire season and then become a free agent. Houston would have to include some other talent, likely prospects, in order to make it worth it for another club to take that contract on. McCullers has a CBT hit of $17MM but similar logic would apply. His deal runs through 2026 but his significant health issues in his career and especially in recent years might make it hard for a deal to come together. Montero’s $11.5MM CBT hit over the next two seasons won’t be easily jettisoned after this down year.

Of course, all this is speculative under a deal with Hader is actually completed. There are still no details of what is being discussed or if it’s close to being completed. He has also received reported interest from the Orioles, while clubs like the Yankees, Rangers and Dodgers have been mentioned as speculative fits. Hader rejected a qualifying offer from the Padres so any signing club, whether it’s the Astros or someone else, will be subject to draft pick forfeiture and possibly a loss of international bonus pool money as well.