Phillies To Non-Tender Austin Hays
The Phillies have informed outfielder Austin Hays that they will not tender him a contract before tonight’s deadline, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports. He’ll immediately become a free agent without having to first clear waivers. He’d been projected for a $6.4MM salary by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.
Hays, 29, spent his entire career with the Orioles before being traded to the Phils in exchange for Seranthony Dominguez and Cristian Pache a few days before the 2024 trade deadline. The Phillies hoped that Hays, who’d battled injuries in the season’s first half, could rebound with better health and solidify their outfield mix down the stretch. That’s not how things played out, however. Hays suffered a strained hamstring a couple weeks after the trade and only briefly returned before hitting the shelf with a kidney infection that took a significant toll on his body. He only took 80 plate appearances with Philadelphia and batted just .256/.275/.397 in that small sample.
All told, Hays endured three IL stints in 2024, missing time with that kidney infection, hamstring strain and a calf strain that shelved him for three weeks from late April to mid-May. His combined .255/.303/.396 slash between the two clubs was arguably the worst production of his big league career.
While injuries clearly hampered Hays’ 2024 campaign, he’s still only a season removed from an All-Star season. Hays turned in a nice .275/.325/.444 slash with 16 home runs and quality glovework in left field as recently as 2023. He’s long been the type of player who thrives in platoon settings and merely holds his own against same-handed opponents, but paired with his defensive acumen that’s enough for him to have been a solid regular in Baltimore. Hays is a lifetime .277/.331/.469 hitter against lefties (120 wRC+) and a .254/.304/.415 hitter against fellow righties (99 wRC+).
Teams seeking a low-cost, right-handed bat to plug into their outfield mix figure to have interest in Hays. Many non-tendered players ultimately sign minor league deals, but Hays was a notable enough contributor with the O’s from 2021-23 that he ought to find a one-year deal in free agency, presumably a price south of his projected arbitration salary.
The Phillies, meanwhile, were already known to be in the market for outfield help. Hays was a likely non-tender candidate for some time now, though they opted not to make the move before today — presumably gauging the market for potential trade partners. Philadelphia’s outfield includes Brandon Marsh, Johan Rojas and Nick Castellanos, but the Phils are interested in adding a bat to the outfield and either going with a Marsh/Rojas platoon in the other spot or giving Marsh a larger role if he can handle lefties better than in the past. The Phillies are planning to meet with Juan Soto and will surely be connected to a variety of other targets both on the open market and trade market.
Mets Sign Jakson Reetz To Minor League Deal
The Mets announced Friday that they’ve signed catcher Jakson Reetz to a minor league deal. He’s been invited to major league spring training. Reetz is a client of Warner Sports Management.
Reetz, 28, spent the 2024 season in the Giants organization. He appeared in only six big league games, homering once in 15 plate appearances, but spent the majority of his season in Triple-A. That marked his second straight year with the Giants’ top affiliate in Sacramento. He slashed .254/.368/.431 with five round-trippers and 20 doubles in 58 games/235 plate appearances.
A third-round pick by the Nationals back in 2014, Reetz once ranked among Washington’s top 10-20 prospects but has settled into journeyman status. He’s played for four different organizations in the past four years, spending time with the Nats, Royals, Brewers, Giants and now the Mets. Reetz popped 22 homers in just 63 games for the Brewers’ Double-A affiliate in 2022, but he sports a more tepid .241/.338/.467 slash in parts of four Triple-A seasons.
The Mets currently have Francisco Alvarez and non-tender candidate Luis Torrens atop their catching depth chart. Former first-round pick Kevin Parada has seen his stock drop since being drafted 11th overall out of Georgia Tech in 2022, as he’s yet to show any offensive production above the High-A level. Parada spent the 2024 season in Double-A and hit just .214/.304/.359 in 114 games — only a moderate improvement over the .185/.250/.389 slash he posted in 60 plate appearances there late in the 2023 season.
Reetz will add some experienced catching depth to compete for a backup role in spring training or to serve as a depth option in Triple-A. If he indeed heads to Syracuse, he could be the next man up in the event of an injury on the MLB staff, so the Mets don’t feel obligated to rush Parada when his development is clearly still a work in progress. With such little certainty beyond Alvarez, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Mets add further catching depth throughout the offseason.
A’s Have Shown Interest In Walker Buehler
The Athletics entered the 2024-25 offseason without a single guaranteed contract on the books for 2025 and a tiny arbitration class, putting them in an odd position. On the one hand, that leaves considerable resources to add to the roster, even by their minimal payroll standards. On the other, persuading free agents to sign with a club that’s going to play the next several seasons in a Triple-A park will be a tall order. The A’s apparently have indeed been out there in the market, as manager Mark Kotsay acknowledged when speaking at this week’s Sports Business Administration Summit at USC that his club has been in contact with right-hander Walker Buehler (X link via Michael J. Duarte of NBC Los Angeles).
A match between the two parties doesn’t feel particularly likely. USC’s Kasey Kazliner adds that Kotsay suggested Buehler was not inclined to play in West Sacramento next season. That’s sure to be a common theme among free agents with any sort of strong market. The A’s will likely have to overpay to persuade free agents, as they did a few years back when handing out multi-year deals to utilitymen Aledmys Diaz and Jace Peterson (neither of which panned out well).
Even with a match unlikely, the Athletics’ interest in Buehler is of some note. It at least signals some intent to shop in a more expensive portion of the free agent pool than they did when signing players like Peterson, Diaz, Drew Rucinski and Shintaro Fujinami in recent offseasons. Buehler isn’t one of the top free agent arms on the market necessarily, but he’ll be a popular target in the second or third tier as clubs eye a potential rebound to the front-of-the-rotation form he showed earlier in his career, before missing the 2023 season while mending from his second Tommy John surgery.
Buehler’s regular season return in 2024 was decidedly sub-par. He pitched 75 1/3 innings with an ugly 5.38 ERA and career-worst strikeout and walk rates: 18.6% and 8.1%, respectively. His average four-seam fastball was 95 mph, about 1.4 mph down from its prior peak. His 8.2% swinging-strike rate ranked 190th among the 204 pitchers who pitched at least 70 innings in 2024 (starter or reliever).
Despite those struggles, injuries elsewhere on the staff thrust Buehler onto the postseason roster. His playoff run got out to a brutal start, as the Padres shelled him for six runs in five innings in his first appearance. It was smooth sailing from there. Buehler pitched 10 more shutout innings with a 13-to-4 K/BB ratio. That includes five shutout frames in Game 3 of the World Series. As fans surely remember, just 48 hours after that five-inning start in Game 3, Buehler came out of the ‘pen to set down Anthony Volpe, Austin Wells and Alex Verdugo in order, earning a save as he clinched the Dodgers’ World Series championship. It wasn’t the heart of the Yankees’ order, but a World Series-clinching save on 48 hours’ rest is still quite the way to finish out a season.
Buehler’s postseason heroics have left a lasting impression on many fans and pundits, though it’s unclear if big league clubs feel the same. Today’s front offices aren’t typically swayed by a small sample of big-game excellence. At season’s end, Buehler looked like a candidate for a modest one-year deal. That was true even through his first postseason start. Will scoreless starts of four and five innings, plus one gutty relief outing to close out the championship substantially increase his earning power? It seems unlikely. The Dodgers, who know Buehler best of all and are in need of pitching themselves, declined to make him a $21.05MM qualifying offer.
It’s possible that Buehler’s pre-surgery excellence and memorable postseason finish spark some interest on relatively modest multi-year deals. The likelier path to a big free agent payday, however, would be a deal that affords him the opportunity to return to the market next season. Perhaps he could follow the Sean Manaea/Ross Stripling/Andrew Heaney mold and land a two-year pact in the mid-$20MMs with an opt-out provision. Many clubs, however, will view Buehler similarly to Jack Flaherty last offseason and hope to land him on a one-year pact with a solid salary. (Flaherty signed for $14MM.) The Braves are among the teams reported to have interest.
As for the A’s themselves, they’ll presumably bring in rotation help one way or another. JP Sears currently sits atop the staff, but there’s not much certainty thereafter. Last year’s Rule 5 pick, Mitch Spence, tossed 151 innings with a 4.58 ERA, good command and below-average strikeout numbers. Right-hander Joey Estes totaled 127 2/3 frames with even better command but even lower strikeout numbers and a 5.01 ERA. Righty J.T. Ginn had similar rate stats to both and a 4.24 ERA in a smaller sample of 34 innings. Twenty-nine-year-old swingman Osvaldo Bido mopped up 63 1/3 innings with a 3.41 ERA, a strong 24.3% strikeout rate and an ugly 10% walk rate. Flamethrowing righty Joe Boyle sat 98 mph with his heater but posted a 6.42 ERA while walking 17.7% of his opponents in 47 2/3 innings (10 starts). Lefties Hogan Harris and Brady Basso both made a handful of starts in 2024, but both are already 27 and posted more concerning numbers in the minors. The A’s will need some form of rotation help — it’s just a matter of whether they can sway some veteran starters to sign on in West Sacramento or whether they’ll need to pursue more help via trade.
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Diamondbacks’ Outfielders Drawing Trade Interest
The Diamondbacks are no stranger to dealing from their perennial outfield depth, and GM Mike Hazen tells Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic that his stock of center fielders is again drawing interest. Hazen wouldn’t rule out a trade eventually coming together. It doesn’t sound as though Arizona is actively shopping any of its outfield options but rather listening to fairly robust interest, given the lack of center field options in free agency and elsewhere on the trade market. Diamondbacks fans, in particular, will want to check out Piecoro’s piece for a full slate of quotes and insight from Hazen.
The Snakes have Corbin Carroll, Alek Thomas and Jake McCarthy lined up as their likely outfield heading into the 2025 season, with Lourdes Gurriel Jr. mixing into left field as well. There’ll likely be some rotation of that bunch through the outfield and DH spots throughout the season. (Gurriel, it should be noted, is not a center fielder and is not seemingly among the players most heavily inquired about at this time.)
Of the D-backs’ trio of center field-capable outfielders, only Thomas and McCarthy stand as feasible trade candidates. Carroll, the 2023 NL Rookie of the Year, had a slow start in 2024 but bounced back to form as the season went on, slashing .256/.348/.522 (136 wRC+) over his final 425 plate appearances. He signed an eight-year, $111MM extension after a brief but excellent 32-game cup of coffee late in the 2022 season. He’s a cornerstone player in Arizona. Other clubs have probably inquired all the same, but Carroll is staying put.
Thomas and McCarthy, however, are at least a bit more plausible as trade candidates. The former ranked as one of the game’s top prospects for years but has yet to solidify himself as a viable everyday player in the majors. He’s a plus defender and runner when healthy but has mustered only a .226/.271/.359 batting line in 916 trips to the plate in the majors.
Thomas, 24, doesn’t strike out at an alarming clip (19.3%) but also ranks third among 251 big league hitters (min. 900 plate appearances) with a 57.2% ground-ball rate dating back to 2022. That penchant for grounders has undercut what scouting reports tabbed as above-average raw power. Thomas did pop 18 homers between Double-A and Triple-A a couple seasons back, but he has only 20 homers in his 916 big league plate appearances. Without elevating the ball more regularly, he’s unlikely to hit for much power in the majors. That said, he did make plenty of hard contact this past season (91.6 mph average exit velocity, 48.6% hard-hit rate). Even if much of that happens on the ground, a player with Thomas’ speed should see a far better average on balls in play than both the .200 he posted in 2024 and the .260 he’s notched in his career. There’s plenty to like about Thomas, and there are surely teams in need of a center fielder who are hoping they can buy low.
McCarthy, 27, is another solid defender — perhaps not quite to the extent of a healthy Thomas — who turned in a sharp .285/.349/.400 batting line in 2024. He smacked eight homers, swiped 25 bags (in 31 tries) and showed very strong contact skills (15.8% strikeout rate). He doesn’t have much power but also doesn’t possess glaring platoon splits. McCarthy doesn’t walk as much as one would prefer from a prototypical leadoff hitter (6.3% in 2024, 7.1% career), but he makes enough contact and runs well enough to profile as a table-setter who can handle all three outfield spots.
Both Thomas and McCarthy have one minor league option remaining and are controllable for another four seasons, which only adds to their appeal for win-now and rebuilding clubs alike. The Royals, Phillies, Pirates, Reds, Mets and Yankees are just some of the teams that could be in the market for outfield help this winter (though some of those obviously depend on the outcome of more pressing free agent pursuits).
As notably, Hazen indicated that any trades from his big league roster would be made with an eye toward improving another area of the MLB squad. The D-backs could lose Christian Walker to free agency, for instance, leaving a potential void at first base. Hazen has already publicly indicated that he hopes to add another high-leverage reliever/closer, though Piecoro specifically calls out the fact that the D-backs aren’t likely to move multiple years of a controllable outfielder in a straight-up swap for a reliever.
Fans may speculate on the potential to effectively purchase someone like Thomas or McCarthy by taking on some or even all of the remaining $22.5MM on Jordan Montgomery‘s contract. That seems overwhelmingly unlikely. Four years of either Thomas or McCarthy would surely be valued at more than the remaining $22.5MM on that contract, and even Montgomery himself would probably still command several million dollars on a bounceback deal in free agency. Taking on his contract probably amounts to somewhere in the vicinity of $15MM in underwater money, and that sum isn’t nearly enough to persuade a team to part with a controllable big league outfielder.
The Opener: Non-Tender Deadline, Trade Market, Snell
With a major offseason deadline now upon us, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. The non-tender deadline is today:
The deadline for clubs to tender contracts to the players in their organization is 7pm CT this evening. The annual deadline never fails to spur activity with arbitration-level players, who typically are at the greatest risk of being non-tendered. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco discussed the process and a wide-ranging list of possible non-tender candidates yesterday, and it wouldn’t be much of a surprise to see a transaction regarding any player on that list at some point before this evening’s deadline. That transaction could be a non-tender, allowing the player to depart for free agency early rather retaining them at an arbitration-level price tag, but it could also come in the form of a trade to another club more willing to pay that arb price or even a pre-tender deal where the sides avoid arbitration at a lower price point to save the club some money and offer the player some certainty.
2. Could the trade market heat up this weekend?
Earlier this week, the Cubs swung a pair of trades on the same day. They acquired right-hander Eli Morgan, who is slated to be eligible for arbitration for the first time in his career this winter, from the Guardians in exchange for outfield prospect Alfonsin Rosario. They also acquired recently DFA’d catcher Matt Thaiss in a cash deal with the Angels. It’s likely that we’ll see an uptick of trades similar to both of these deals over the coming days.
With the arrival of the non-tender deadline today, several arb-eligible players on the bubble of being non-tendered get moved today, either off teams looking to cut costs to teams with budget space available, or from a team that would otherwise non-tender a player to one interested in offering him an arb-level contract. Aside from that, we saw a slew of players DFA’d in advance of the Rule 5 Draft protection deadline earlier this week. Any number of them could be flipped to another club via trade or waivers. That could lead to a handful of minor trades similar to the Thaiss deal, where a club adds a player for a typically relatively minor return, and there will also surely be plenty of waiver activity (and subsequent DFAs) in the days ahead.
3. Who else will meet with Snell?
Two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell reportedly met with both the Red Sox and Dodgers recently, giving a glimpse into the soon-to-be 32-year-old’s market. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic suggested yesterday that both the Blue Jays and Orioles could soon set up meetings with Snell, adding that the left-hander is aiming for a shorter stay on the free agent market this time around after waiting until March 19 to sign last winter.
It seems fair to presume that the Yankees (who had interest last offseason) and Mets (who saw 60% of their rotation reach free agency) could also sit down with the lefty. Snell could potentially hold broader appeal than fellow free agent aces Corbin Burnes and Max Fried due both to his lack of a qualifying offer and the fact that his age could tamp down the length of his contract (at the likely trade-off of a premium annual value). Might that create a few surprise suitors who don’t typically shop in the deep end of the free-agent pool?
2024 Non-Tender Candidates
The non-tender deadline is tomorrow evening. Teams need to decide whether they want to offer contracts to their arbitration-eligible (and pre-arbitration) players. Those who are not tendered contracts are sent directly into free agency without exposing them to waivers.
As is the case each winter, MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz has projected salaries for the arbitration class. Teams have already made a few cuts among that group — either at the beginning of the offseason when players returned from the injured list or prior to Tuesday’s deadline to keep prospects out of the Rule 5 draft. The Cubs, for instance, have already taken Adbert Alzolay and Patrick Wisdom off the 40-man roster and could officially non-tender them tomorrow.
Not everyone who is tendered a contract will know their salary this week. Some players will sign “pre-tender” deals that lock in guaranteed money. Many of them are borderline non-tender candidates who will take salaries below their projection to ensure they stay on the roster at all. (Scott Kingery and Seth Brown have already signed deals of that ilk.) Those who don’t sign but are tendered a contract could have a few months of uncertainty. They’re free to continue negotiating with their clubs to find a mutually agreeable salary until the date of their arbitration hearing.
As we do each offseason, we’ll take a look at arb-eligible players we believe have a realistic shot at being let go. To be clear, this is not a list of players we think are likelier than not to be non-tendered. These are players we consider to have at least a 10-20% chance of being cut — a broad group who wouldn’t strike us as completely surprising.
At least a few of these players will likely be traded, as some teams will have more willingness than others to accommodate various projected salaries. MLBTR covered a few candidates for that kind of deal in a post for Front Office subscribers yesterday.
Onto the list, with Matt’s projected salaries:
Catchers
- Riley Adams (Nationals): $1.1MM
- Nick Fortes (Marlins): $1.6MM
- Eric Haase (Brewers): $1.8MM
- Garrett Stubbs (Phillies): $1.2MM
- Luis Torrens (Mets): $1.1MM
First Basemen
- Connor Joe (Pirates): $3.2MM
- Gavin Sheets (White Sox): $2.6MM
- Andrew Vaughn (White Sox): $6.4MM
Second Basemen
- Nick Madrigal (Cubs): $1.9MM
- Brendan Rodgers (Rockies): $5.5MM
Third Basemen
- Jon Berti (Yankees): $3.8MM
- Santiago Espinal (Reds): 4MM
- Emmanuel Rivera (Orioles): $1.4MM
- Josh Rojas (Mariners): $4.3MM
Shortstops
- Jorge Mateo (Orioles): $3.2MM
- Zach McKinstry (Tigers): $1.3MM
- Tyler Wade (Padres): $900K
- Taylor Walls (Rays): $1.3MM
Center Fielders
- Trent Grisham (Yankees): $5.7MM
- Mickey Moniak (Angels): $1.8MM
- Leody Taveras (Rangers): $4.3MM
- Eli White (Braves): $800K
Corner Outfielders
- Miguel Andujar (Athletics): $2.8MM
- Akil Baddoo (Tigers): $1.6MM
- Dylan Carlson (Rays): $2.7MM
- Bryan De La Cruz (Pirates): $4MM
- Jake Fraley (Reds): $3.3MM
- Sam Haggerty (Mariners): $900K
- Austin Hays (Phillies): $6.4MM
- Sam Hilliard (Rockies): $1.7MM
- Ramon Laureano (Braves): $6.1MM
- MJ Melendez (Royals): $2.5MM
- Jesus Sanchez (Marlins): $3.2MM
- Mike Yastrzemski (Giants): $9.5MM
Starting Pitchers
- Tyler Alexander (Rays): $2.8MM
- Paul Blackburn (Mets): $4.4MM
- JT Brubaker (Yankees): $2.275MM
- Griffin Canning (Braves): $5.1MM
- Aaron Civale (Brewers): $8MM
- Dane Dunning (Rangers): $4.4MM
- Austin Gomber (Rockies): $5.6MM
- Ben Lively (Guardians): $3.2MM
- Dustin May (Dodgers): $2.135MM
- Triston McKenzie (Guardians): $2.4MM*
- Cal Quantrill (Rockies): $9MM
- Trevor Rogers (Orioles): $2.8MM
- Tyler Wells (Orioles): $2.1MM
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): $825K
Right-Handed Relievers
- Justin Anderson (White Sox): $1.1MM
- David Bednar (Pirates): $6.6MM
- Enyel De Los Santos (White Sox): $1.7MM
- Camilo Doval (Giants): $4.6MM
- Scott Effross (Yankees): $900K
- Ian Gibaut (Reds): $800K
- Hunter Harvey (Royals): $3.9MM
- Carlos Hernandez (Royals): $1.2MM
- Dany Jimenez (Athletics): $1MM
- Alex Lange (Tigers): $1.3MM
- Derek Law (Nationals): $3MM
- Justin Lawrence (Rockies): $1MM
- Mark Leiter Jr. (Yankees): $2.1MM
- Julian Merryweather (Cubs): $1.3MM
- Luis Patino (Padres): $800K
- Zach Pop (Blue Jays): $1MM
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): $1.9MM
- Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): $900K
- Jordan Romano (Blue Jays): $7.75MM
- Jose Ruiz (Phillies): $1.2MM
- Josh Sborz (Rangers): $1.3MM
- Cole Sulser (Rays): $1MM
- Erik Swanson (Blue Jays): $3.2MM
- Dillon Tate (Blue Jays): $1.9MM
- Mason Thompson (Nationals): $800K*
- Michael Tonkin (Twins): $1.5MM
- Justin Topa (Twins): $1.3MM
- Austin Voth (Mariners): $2.2MM
- Steven Wilson (White Sox): $1MM
Left-Handed Relievers
- Lucas Gilbreath (Rockies): $900K
- Sam Hentges (Guardians): $1.4MM
- Tim Mayza (Yankees): $4MM
- Hoby Milner (Brewers): $2.7MM
- Kyle Nelson (Diamondbacks): $800K
- Colin Poche (Rays): $3.4MM
- Gregory Soto (Orioles): $5.6MM
- Gabe Speier (Mariners): $900K
- José Suarez (Angels): $1.2MM
- Alex Young (Mets): $1.4MM
* Have avoided arbitration since the list was published
Royals Have Shown Interest In Juan Soto
The Royals have reached out to Juan Soto this offseason, writes Jon Heyman of the New York Post. It doesn’t appear talks got far, as Heyman unsurprisingly adds that Soto’s asking price is out of Kansas City’s comfort zone.
At the start of the offseason, Heyman reported that a pair of small-market teams were among 11 clubs to reach out to Soto. The Rays were quickly reported as one of those suitors, and it seems the Royals were the other. In any case, there’s nothing to suggest either Tampa Bay or Kansas City has shown more than cursory interest. The teams known to have met with Soto — the Mets, Yankees, Blue Jays, Red Sox and Dodgers — are all big-market franchises. The Phillies hadn’t scheduled a meeting with Soto as of Tuesday, though they’re also expected to sit down with the star outfielder and agent Scott Boras at some point.
The Royals were surprisingly active spenders last winter. Kansas City committed upwards of $110MM in free agency, headlined by deals for Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha. Those contracts worked out incredibly well. Lugo finished second in AL Cy Young balloting. Wacha continued to post quality mid-rotation numbers. He opted out of the second season of his first K.C. contract before returning to the organization on a three-year, $51MM deal.
Kansas City’s biggest investment came on the eve of Spring Training, as they extended franchise shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. on an 11-year deal that guaranteed him nearly $289MM. Witt turned in an MVP runner-up showing as Kansas City surprisingly snapped a nine-year playoff drought.
Witt’s contract is easily the biggest deal in franchise history. Soto’s asking price is surely more than double that. While they’re not going to get the market’s top free agent, the Royals could be involved on anyone else in the outfield class. Anthony Santander, Teoscar Hernández, Tyler O’Neill and Jurickson Profar are candidates for three- or four-year contracts. It’d be a surprise if anyone from that group reached nine figures, though Santander has an outside chance. K.C.’s corner outfield tandem of MJ Melendez and Hunter Renfroe is very weak for a contender, making that an obvious area for the front office to upgrade.
Nationals Avoid Arbitration With Mason Thompson
The Nationals announced they’ve avoided arbitration with reliever Mason Thompson. The team did not reveal salary terms. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had projected him for an $800K salary that is marginally above the $760K league minimum.
Thomspon, who turns 27 in February, underwent Tommy John surgery early in Spring Training. He obviously missed the entire season but could return relatively early in 2025. A former Padres draftee, Thompson went to the Nats at the 2021 deadline in the trade that sent veteran reliever Daniel Hudson to San Diego. Thompson made 102 appearances for Washington between 2021-23. He posted a 4.57 earned run average with a middling 17.8% strikeout rate.
This was the first of the righty’s three seasons of arbitration eligibility. Washington had a nine-player arbitration class before waiving Ildemaro Vargas. Catcher Riley Adams and relievers Derek Law and Tanner Rainey are potential non-tender candidates before tomorrow evening’s deadline.
Astros Have Made Offer To Alex Bregman
The Astros have called re-signing Alex Bregman their top offseason priority. Whether that’ll happen remains to be seen, but Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that Houston has made an offer to their longtime third baseman. It’s unclear whether any other teams have made a formal proposal, but Heyman reports that Bregman’s camp has also fielded interest from the Tigers and Red Sox.
Terms of the Astros’ proposal aren’t known. If Houston is going to retain Bregman, it’d probably require the largest investment in franchise history. Their previous organizational high is the five-year, $151MM Jose Altuve extension from 2018. Bregman has a decent shot at six or seven years at more than $25MM annually. He’ll presumably view Matt Chapman’s recent six-year, $151MM extension as the floor and could look to beat $200MM.
Houston general manager Dana Brown said early in the offseason that the Astros may need to creatively manage the books, potentially by trading a veteran or two who is playing on a notable salary. Owner Jim Crane said earlier this week that the team has the flexibility to exceed the luxury tax threshold for a second straight year.
That’d essentially be a prerequisite to re-signing Bregman. RosterResource calculates Houston’s competitive balance tax number in the $234MM range. That’s not far below the $241MM base threshold. Even if the Astros trade veteran setup man Ryan Pressly and offload his $14MM salary, a Bregman contract will send them past the CBT mark. They’re also looking for help at first base and could try for a more affordable bullpen pickup if they deal Pressly.
This is the first direct tie between Bregman and the Tigers. That has been a longstanding speculative match with former Astros manager A.J. Hinch leading the charge in Motown. Detroit’s third base mix is unsettled. Matt Vierling, Zach McKinstry and prospect Jace Jung all took a decent number of at-bats at the position. Vierling and McKinstry are multi-positional players. Third base is the clearest fit for the 24-year-old Jung, who has 34 games of major league experience. If the Tigers were to land Bregman, Jung could push Spencer Torkelson for playing time at first base. He’d also be a potential trade chip as Detroit looks to solidify the rotation behind Tarik Skubal and Reese Olson.
Finances are the much bigger obstacle. While Detroit has run payrolls north of $200MM in the past, those came when the late Mike Ilitch was running the franchise. The Tigers have dramatically reduced spending since Christopher Ilitich’s ownership tenure began in 2017. Much of that came amidst a rebuild that was firmly closed by Detroit’s late-season run to the AL Division Series, so they could loosen the purse strings this winter. The Tigers only have around $80MM on next year’s payroll, according to RosterResource, nearly $20MM below this past season’s Opening Day mark. They should be active on the free agent market, but a Bregman deal would almost certainly top the $140MM Javier Báez contract as Detroit’s biggest under Christopher Ilitch ownership.
The Red Sox appear more likely than either the Astros or Tigers to make a huge free agent splash. Boston brass continues to forecast an aggressive winter. A strike for a top starting pitcher is a clearer fit than a run at Bregman. Heyman suggests the Sox could move Rafael Devers across the diamond to first base to accommodate Bregman. That’d push Triston Casas to designated hitter and presumably force Masataka Yoshida off the roster.
The easier solution might be to leave Devers at third base for another season and deploy Bregman at the keystone. The Sox had one of the least productive second base groups in MLB this year. Bregman has barely played second base because of Altuve’s presence in Houston, but agent Scott Boras said at the GM Meetings that the star infielder was willing to slide to the right side of the infield if necessary.
Bregman declined a qualifying offer, so the Tigers and Sox would forfeit a pick if they were to sign him. Detroit would lose its third-highest pick in next year’s draft. Boston would relinquish its second-highest pick and $500K from its international bonus allotment. The Sox’s penalty is higher because they do not receive revenue sharing, while the Tigers do. Houston wouldn’t give up anything to re-sign their own free agent, though they’d pass up the chance to collect a compensation pick after the fourth round if Bregman walks.