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MLB Mailbag: Soto, Skubal, Cubs, A’s, Braves, Crews, Cardinals, NL Awards

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I'm pinch-hitting for Tim Dierkes on this week's MLB Mailbag! This week, I fielded questions on Juan Soto's free agency, Tarik Skubal's emergence as an elite arm, Hector Neris' release, the Cubs' luxury-tax status, the Athletics' outlook in Sacramento, the Braves' litany of injuries and their playoff chances, the Cardinals and player development, Dylan Crews' timeline, various NL Award outlooks and, lastly, made some way-too-early, surely-incorrect picks for free agent destinations.

Let's dive in!

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Braves Notes: Minter, Holmes, Gurriel

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Braves reliever A.J. Minter underwent season-ending hip surgery today, the team announced. Manager Brian Snitker said last week that Minter was going under the knife, though he didn’t specify whether it’d be a season-ending procedure. That seemed to be the case when Atlanta moved Minter to the 60-day injured list in tandem with the Gio Urshela signing. Today’s announcement officially closes the book on any chance of the southpaw making a return in the playoffs.

Minter’s year concludes with a 2.62 ERA across 34 1/3 innings. He fanned an above-average 26.1% of opponents against an 8.2% walk rate. That’s a solid strikeout and walk profile but a tick below the numbers he’d posted from 2022-23. Minter fanned more than 30% of his opponents in each of the previous two years, topping 60 innings in both seasons.

Hip discomfort has plagued Minter for a few months. He initially went on the IL in late May with inflammation. His return from that injury proved relatively short-lived and necessitated the year-ending surgery. It’s possible that marks the end of his Atlanta tenure. The former second-round pick will hit free agency during the upcoming offseason. He still has a shot at a multi-year deal, though that’s not the lock it had seemed earlier in the season.

Dylan Lee stepped into the bullpen in Minter’s place. He’s joined in the relief group by Grant Holmes, who moved back to the bullpen this week. Snitker announced before Tuesday’s game that the Braves were kicking Holmes to relief after they reinstated Reynaldo López from the injured list (X link via David O’Brien of the Athletic). The 28-year-old rookie had made four starts between late July and the middle of this month. He pitched fairly well, working to a 4.57 ERA with an impressive 28% strikeout rate in 21 2/3 innings.

There’s not any room for Holmes to maintain a spot in the rotation unless the Braves wanted to go to a six-man staff. Chris Sale, Max Fried, López, Spencer Schwellenbach and Charlie Morton all have spots secured. Holmes exhausted his minor league options while he was a prospect in the Oakland farm system. The Braves can’t send him to Triple-A without running him through waivers. Holmes has pitched well enough this season that he’d very likely be claimed, so the Braves will keep him in a multi-inning relief capacity. Holmes tossed two scoreless innings against Philadelphia on Tuesday and is up to a 3.45 ERA through 47 frames on the season.

That doesn’t leave much flexibility for any kind of roster maneuvering. Of Atlanta’s eight MLB relievers, only Lee still has options remaining. Schwellenbach is their only starter who can freely be sent down, although he’s pitching so well that the team has no reason to consider doing that. The 13-pitcher limit could eventually push the Braves to make a call on whether to continue carrying both Luke Jackson and Jesse Chavez in the middle innings.

Injuries have been an unfortunate theme for Atlanta throughout the season. That continued this week with Austin Riley suffering a hand fracture that’ll sideline him for well over a month. Urshela is the short-term answer at third base, though the Braves seem to be considering a contingency option in the minors. As Francys Romero reported (on X) earlier this week, Atlanta is giving Yuli Gurriel third base playing time at Triple-A Gwinnett. He had played exclusively first or second base for the Stripers until Riley’s injury; he has started the past two games at the hot corner.

Gurriel signed a minor league deal with Atlanta in April. He’s having a very strong season with Gwinnett, hitting .297/.378/.493 with 12 homers and a strong strikeout and walk profile. That has yet to get him back to the majors after well below-average seasons with the Astros and Marlins in 2022-23. The 40-year-old infielder hasn’t started an MLB game at third base since 2019, instead spending almost all of his time at first base in recent years.

Alex Bregman Discusses Elbow Soreness

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Alex Bregman returned to the Astros’ lineup this afternoon, hitting atop the order while playing designated hitter. Bregman’s leadoff homer accounted for the only run in a 4-1 loss to the Red Sox. That was his first at-bat in a week, as the two-time All-Star hadn’t played since last Wednesday because of inflammation in his right elbow.

Bregman’s return to the order doesn’t mean he’s at full strength. Breaking him back in at DH suggested the Astros were still concerned about him throwing the ball across the diamond. Bregman acknowledged that could be a problem for the foreseeable future. The third baseman told reporters after the game that his defensive work will be “a fluid situation” for the remainder of the season (link via Chandler Rome of the Athletic). Bregman made clear that he wasn’t dealing with any structural damage in his UCL but noted he’d need to “try to mitigate” swelling on a daily basis.

That is far from a declaration that he won’t return to third base, yet it seems likely he’ll get a fair amount of run at designated hitter down the stretch. That could push Yordan Alvarez more frequently into left field. Houston has also given catchers Yainer Diaz and Victor Caratini sporadic DH work as a means of keeping them fresh while getting both players into the lineup. Caratini, as the #2 option behind the plate, could lose a few reps. Diaz has started two of the past three games at first base, where the Astros had been using a Jon Singleton/Zach Dezenzo platoon. That’s another potential avenue for manager Joe Espada to keep both catchers in the lineup.

The bigger question is how the Astros would cover third base if Bregman’s playing time there is curtailed. Rookie Shay Whitcomb is evidently the first choice. Houston called him up on Thursday and has given him the past five starts at the hot corner. Whitcomb has had a great year in Triple-A, hitting .293/.378/.530 with 25 homers and 26 stolen bases. He’d struggled with strikeouts throughout his minor league career before taking a significant step forward in that regard this season.

At this point, there’s no indication that Bregman is dealing with anything especially worrisome. It’s nevertheless a situation worth monitoring as the Astros work to lock down another division title and into the upcoming offseason. Bregman will be a free agent for the first time and has a case as the second-best position player in the class behind Juan Soto.

As MLBTR explored in greater detail last week, Bregman has rebounded from a dismal start to the season. He has hit the ball harder as the year has progressed and has been on a power barrage this month. While his overall .261/.318/.450 season line is still below his standard level, that’s attributable to the poor start. Bregman is playing as well as ever over the past couple months.

Pirates Outright Ryder Ryan

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August 21: Ryan cleared waivers and was outrighted back to Triple-A Indianapolis, per the transaction log at MLB.com. It’s not clear whether he has elected free agency.

August 19: The Pirates announced a series of roster moves today, including the selection of outfielder Billy McKinney, which was previously reported. They also recalled right-hander Hunter Stratton. To make room for those two, the club placed third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes on the 10-day injured list with low back inflammation and designated righty Ryder Ryan for assignment.

It doesn’t come as a huge surprise that Hayes has landed on the IL with this back issue, as it’s been a recurring theme in his career so far. He landed on the shelf due to a back injury in 2022, twice in 2023 and now this is his second stint of the 2024 season. Yesterday, Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette wrote about how Hayes has a disc problem in his back that requires him to play through pain, with no obvious treatment apart from rest.

“Someone who has what I have, you want to stay away from turning,” Hayes said to Mackey. “But that’s what I have to do every day. It’s been frustrating, for sure, just knowing that I’m a lot better than what I’m showcasing. I want to be out there every day, but it’s just … hard.”

The third baseman then got more into the weeds in discussing his injury. “My whole issue is the disc has lost its jelly stuff,” Hayes said. “When we look at the MRIs, [the discs are] just kind of compressing. I don’t know that it’s rubbing, but it’s definitely a little collapsed to where there’s pressure, inflammation builds up, and muscles want to try to protect.”

The Pirates have hovered around the playoff race this year but have hit a bad skid lately, going 3-13 in their past 16 games. They are still within 7.5 games of a Wild Card spot in the National League but would have to leapfrog six different teams in order to get into playoff positions. The Playoff Odds at FanGraphs give them just a 0.5% chance of making the postseason now, while the PECOTA Standings at Baseball Prospectus are slightly lower at 0.4%.

Perhaps the Bucs have accepted that this isn’t their year and will now get Hayes some rest as opposed to pushing him to play through his injury. Whether he will come back or simply be shut down perhaps depends on how he feels in the coming weeks.

Though the back issue isn’t new, it’s possible it’s impacting him more than in previous years. He came into this season with a .264/.320/.409 batting line and 98 wRC+ as well as 65 Defensive Runs Saved and 51 Outs Above Average at third base. This year, he’s hitting .233/.283/.290 for a wRC+ of 60 and his defensive grades are down a bit, though still strong, at 9 DRS and 5 OAA.

Finding a solution will obviously be a priority for the Bucs, as they gave Hayes an eight-year, $70MM extension in 2022. That deal runs through 2029 and has a club option for 2030, a significant commitment for a low-spending club like the Pirates. With Hayes out of action, the Bucs will likely give more infield time to guys like Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Jared Triolo and Alika Williams, with that group also covering second base alongside shortstop Oneil Cruz.

Ryan, 29, signed a minor league deal with the Pirates in the offseason and has been on and off their roster this year. He made the Opening Day roster and spent the first half of the season as a frequently-optioned depth arm. As of 2022, players can only be optioned five times per season and the Pirates had already optioned Ryan five times by the middle of July. He was then designated for assignment at the end of July and accepted an outright assignment. He was added back to the roster a week ago but now gets the DFA treatment again.

Around those transactions, he has thrown 20 2/3 innings at the major league level with a 5.66 earned run average, combining an 18.3% strikeout rate with a 9.7% walk rate and 37.1% ground ball rate. He has also thrown 28 1/3 Triple-A innings with a 4.45 ERA, 16% strikeout rate, 8.4% walk rate and 50% ground ball rate.

With the trade deadline now passed, the Bucs will have to place him on waivers in the coming days. He has one more option year remaining but can no longer be optioned here in 2024. Since he passed through waivers a few weeks ago and accepted an outright assignment, it’s possible that the same sequence of events takes place in the next few days.

Athletics Sign Austin Pruitt To Minor League Deal

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The Athletics have signed right-hander Austin Pruitt to a minor league deal, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. He has been assigned to Triple-A Las Vegas and will provide the A’s with some non-roster depth.

The A’s are plenty familiar with Pruitt, as he spent the 2022 and 2023 seasons with them. He tossed 103 2/3 innings for Oakland over those two campaigns, allowing 3.65 earned runs per nine. His 16.2% strikeout rate in that time was subpar but he demonstrated good control by limiting walks to a 5% clip and his 41.2% ground ball rate was close to league average.

That’s generally been the recipe over Pruitt’s career overall. He’s also spent some time with the Rays, Astros, Marlins and Rangers, with 315 major league innings, a 4.54 ERA, 16.6% strikeout rate, 5.6% walk rate and 45.7% ground ball rate.

At the end of last year, he was outrighted off Oakland’s roster and signed a minor league deal with Texas in the offseason. He was selected to the roster in mid-April but made just four appearances before landing on the injured list with a right knee medial meniscus injury. He began a rehab assignment at the end of June but the Rangers released him at the end of July rather than add him back onto the roster.

After about three weeks on the open market, he’s landed in a familiar spot by signing with the A’s. Oakland has a few veterans on the injured list, with Austin Adams, Scott Alexander, Alex Wood and Trevor Gott all on the shelf. Of the pitchers currently on the active roster, Ross Stripling and T.J. McFarland are the only ones with more than three years of major league service time. If the A’s need a fresh arm at some point, Pruitt could be called upon as someone with experience.

Angels Select Johnny Cueto

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August 21: The Angels have now made it official, selecting Cueto to the roster. Righty Hans Crouse was optioned in a corresponding move. The club also announced that José Cisnero, who was designated for assignment on the weekend, has been released.

August 20: The Angels are set to select the contract of right-hander Johnny Cueto from Triple-A Salt Lake, reports Hector Gomez of Z101 Deportes in the Dominican Republic. The Halos don’t have a starter announced for tomorrow’s game, so it seems the plan will be for the veteran Cueto to come up and take the ball. He’s not on the 40-man roster, but the Angels have a vacancy there after releasing veteran infielder Luis Guillorme over the weekend.

Cueto, 38, has pitched in Triple-A with the Rangers and Angels this season, finding a good bit more success with the latter than with the former. He’s made four starts in Salt Lake and held opponents to eight earned runs on 27 hits and five walks with 15 strikeouts through 23 1/3 frames. That comes out to a 3.09 ERA and sharp 5% walk rate — albeit against a sub-par 14.9% strikeout rate. When including his minor league work with Texas this season, Cueto has a 4.76 ERA in 64 1/3 innings. He’ll be on six days rest for tomorrow’s game, with his most recent outing having come on Aug. 14.

Assuming Cueto indeed gets the nod for the Angels, this will be the 17th consecutive season in which the two-time All-Star and 2015 World Series champion has pitched in the majors. He spent the 2023 campaign with the Marlins but struggled to a 6.02 ERA through 10 starts in a season that was wrecked by a biceps injury. As recently as 2022, the right-hander pitched 158 1/3 innings of 3.35 ERA ball with the White Sox, showing similar K-BB rates (15.7% and 5.1%) to the ones he’s logged in Triple-A this year.

Overall, Cueto has piled up 2245 big league innings and recorded a tidy 3.50 ERA along the way. He’s won 144 games against 111 losses, punched out 1851 big league opponents and appeared in a total of 368 major league games. Cueto is currently tied with Floyd Bannister and Doc White for 196th in games started at the MLB level, and he’ll jump into a tie with Ron Darling, Scott Erickson and Vern Law for 193rd if and when he takes the ball tomorrow.

The Angels recently placed Jose Soriano on the injured list due to arm fatigue and lost Patrick Sandoval to UCL surgery earlier this season. They’ve been using journeyman Carson Fulmer and rookie Jack Kochanowicz in the rotation alongside Tyler Anderson and Griffin Canning recently. Cueto will give them a veteran option to join that group, though it’s possible the Angels will want to take a look at homegrown arms like Reid Detmers or Sam Bachman down the stretch. Both have had their struggles since being optioned to Triple-A, but both pitchers also pitched excellently in their most recent outings.

Dodgers Outright Brent Honeywell

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August 21: Honeywell has accepted his outright, per OKC broadcaster Alex Freeman on X.

August 20: Dodgers righty Brent Honeywell went unclaimed on waivers and was assigned outright to Triple-A Oklahoma City, according to the MLB.com transaction log. Honeywell has a previous career outright, so he can decline the assignment in favor of minor league free agency.

A top prospect when he was a member of the Rays’ system, Honeywell battled various injuries before getting a real look at the MLB level. He finally got that opportunity last season, combining for 52 1/3 relief innings between the Padres and White Sox. Honeywell posted serviceable middle relief numbers in San Diego before being hit hard with the Sox. That cost him his roster spot in Chicago and left him to sign a minor league deal with the Pirates over the winter.

The 29-year-old spent the first half of the year with Pittsburgh’s Triple-A team. He turned in a 4.85 ERA with a modest 19.6% strikeout percentage across 39 innings. While it wasn’t the most dominant showing, the Bucs called him up in July. He made two appearances before Pittsburgh designated him for assignment and lost him on waivers to Los Angeles. The Dodgers gave Honeywell 10 outings in low-leverage spots. He posted a 2.21 ERA through 20 1/3 frames. That’s despite a well below-average 15.2% strikeout rate and 6.5% swinging strike percentage. The Dodgers squeezed him off the roster over the weekend when they promoted Ben Casparius.

Honeywell carries 4.26 ERA across 80 1/3 innings over parts of three big league campaigns. If he reports to OKC, he’d be eligible for minor league free agency at the start of the offseason unless the Dodgers call him back up.

Padres Select Mason McCoy

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The Padres announced they have selected the contract of infielder Mason McCoy. Infielder Matthew Batten has been optioned to Triple-A El Paso in a corresponding active roster. To open a 40-man spot for McCoy, outfielder Fernando Tatis Jr. was transferred to the 60-day injured list. Tatis has already been on the IL for 60 days, so he can return as soon as he’s healthy. Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune relayed the McCoy and Batten moves on X prior to the official announcement.

McCoy, 29, signed a minor league deal with the Padres in the offseason. He has played 108 games for Triple-A El Paso this year with a .260/.329/.382 batting line, which translates to a wRC+ of 79, indicating he’s been 21% below league average.

He has never been much of a hitter, having slashed .239/.318/.400 for a wRC+ of 80 in 458 Triple-A games since the start of 2021. His major league work consists of just one plate appearance with the Blue Jays last year, though he did get into six games overall, mostly as a defensive replacement. He has a reputation as an excellent defender and frequently racks up double-digit steal totals, including 25 this year.

The Padres recently lost shortstop Ha-Seong Kim to the injured list, which has moved utility player Tyler Wade into regular shortstop action. McCoy can provide the Padres with depth all over, as he has played all the infield positions to the left of first base, in addition to some outfield work. Based on his skills, he might be ticketed for a lot of late-game work, either on defense or on the basepaths. He still has a full slate of options and just a few days of service time, so the Padres could keep him around for a while if they so choose.

As for Tatis, as mentioned, this is just a formality. He landed on the IL June 24, retroactive to June 22, due to a right femoral stress reaction. Today’s transfer is retroactive to that June 22 date, meaning he can be reinstated at any point. It was reported earlier this week that he could be back in the middle of next month.

Cardinals Option Nolan Gorman

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The Cardinals have announced that infielder Nolan Gorman has been optioned to Triple-A Memphis. Fellow infielder José Fermín has been recalled from Memphis as the corresponding move.

For Gorman, it’s his first optional assignment in almost two years, as his last one came in September of 2022. Last year, he seemed to cement himself as a key piece of the club’s future, getting into 119 games and hitting 27 home runs. His 31.9% strikeout rate was quite high but he also walked at an 11.4% clip and provided that aforementioned power. His .236/.328/.478 batting line translated to a 118 wRC+, indicating he was 18% better than league average on the year.

Things have fallen off here in 2024, however. The power is still there, as evidenced by his 19 home runs, but his strikeout rate has climbed to 37.6%. Among qualified hitters in the league, that’s the highest in the league by a decent margin. Zack Gelof is at 35.2% and everyone else in the majors is below 32%. With Gorman’s walk rate also ticking down a bit to 8.5%, he has a .203/.271/.400 batting line and 87 wRC+ this year. He’s not considered an especially strong defender at second, so the declining offense is a real hit to his value.

The Cardinals were close enough to contention that they bought at the deadline, acquiring Erick Fedde, Tommy Pham and Shawn Armstrong. But they’ve had a rough August, going 5-12 on the month, including a 2-8 stretch in the past 10 contests. They have fallen to six games back of a Wild Card spot and have been shaking up their roster in recent days. Yesterday, infielder Brandon Crawford was released and outfielder Jordan Walker optioned down to the minors, with Gorman now following him down.

Utility player Brendan Donovan has seen a decent amount of second base this year and could perhaps take over at the keystone more regularly. With Pham’s addition to the outfield mix, Donovan won’t need to be on the grass as much, with Victor Scott II, Alec Burleson and Lars Nootbaar out there alongside Pham. Fermín can effectively replace Crawford and Gorman, as he can play both middle infield spots, as well as third base and the outfield corners a bit. He’s hitting .311/.424/.500 in Triple-A this year.

For Gorman personally, this optional assignment won’t impact his path to free agency but could cost him a chance at Super Two status. He came into this season with one year and 139 days of service time. He has already blown way past the two-year mark and would have finished 2024 at 2.139 if he stayed up all year. Based on past cutoffs, he would have had a strong chance at qualifying for arbitration this winter as a Super Two player. That could still be the case if he is quickly recalled, though every day that he spends in the minors will lower his chances.

The Cardinals used the 19th overall pick on Gorman back in 2018 and he was one of their top prospects on his way up the minor league ladder. They likely still view him as a key part of their future but he will have to earn it. “Obviously, it’s a game of production up here and at some point, you’ve got to consistently produce, or we have to find someone who can,” president of baseball operations John Mozeliak said yesterday, per John Denton of MLB.com. “I mean, that’s what it ultimately comes down to, and these are hard messages to hear. It can be frustrating, but this is what ends up defining you. With our offensive struggles this year, I think you can strictly look at the inability for consistent performance, day in and day out.”

Gorman will still have two option years even if he uses one here in 2024. That means the Cardinals could potentially keep him as a depth guy for quite a while if he doesn’t force their hand. Pham, Paul Goldschmidt and Matt Carpenter are all slated for free agency this winter, which could open up some playing time. They likely have some degree of interest in bringing all of them back, certainly with Goldschmidt, but Burleson or Luken Baker could theoretically take over at first base or designated hitter. That could then see Donovan slide back to more of an outfield role if Gorman can push his way into the picture, though the club’s offseason could also completely change the picture by next year and prospect Thomas Saggese is lurking in Triple-A.

Yankees Place Luis Gil On Injured List

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3:05pm: Manager Aaron Boone says that Gil’s back injury is minor and they hope to have him back after the 15-day minimum, per Brendan Kuty of The Athletic on X.

2:30pm: The Yankees announced today that right-hander Luis Gil has been placed on the 15-day injured list with a lower back strain. Fellow right Will Warren was recalled from Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre in a corresponding move.

Gil started last night’s game against the Guardians but lasted just three innings and 78 pitches before he was removed. The club later announced that he departed with low back tightness, per Chris Kirschner of The Athletic on X. The club hasn’t provided any updates today about how long they expect Gil to be out, but it seems they expect him to miss at least a couple of weeks, based on this IL placement.

That will interrupt an excellent rookie season for the right-hander, as he has made 24 starts with a 3.39 earned run average. His 12.6% walk rate is on the high side but he’s been able to counteract that with a strong 27.5% strikeout rate.

Gil may have needed a breather at some point anyway, since he is already pushing into uncharted personal territory in terms of workload. He underwent Tommy John surgery in May of 2022, missing most of that season as well as 2023. Prior to that, his career high in terms of innings was 108 2/3 in 2021, between the majors and the minors.

Here in 2024, he’s already logged 124 2/3 frames. That means he’s well into personal-high territory, on the heels of two mostly lost seasons. Even though his results have been strong, the Yankees may have been pressed to think about lightening his load somehow, either by optioning him to the minors or transferring him to the bullpen.

The IL stint could perhaps act as that breather, as long as it’s not a terribly significant injury. If he just needs a few weeks on the shelf, perhaps that will allow him to recharge for the stretch run and the postseason.

In the meantime, the Yanks will be down another man in the rotation that’s missing a few guys. Gil will join Clarke Schmidt, JT Brubaker and Cody Poteet on the IL, though some of those guys could be back in the mix soon. Poteet began a rehab assignment last night and Schmidt is expected to start one on Friday, per Kirschner on X.

For now, the rotation consists of Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón, Nestor Cortes and Marcus Stroman, with Warren presumably stepping in to replace Gil. Despite the Yankees having a strong record of 73-53 this year, they haven’t had amazing results out of that group. Stroman’s 3.82 ERA is the best of the bunch and he’s probably lucky to have that number. His 16.8% strikeout rate, 9.9% walk rate and 48.1% ground ball rate are all on pace to be the worst of his career. Cole, Rodón and Cortes each have ERAs of 4.15 or higher. Warren has an 8.59 ERA in his first three major league starts.

The IL placement of Gil has the potential to have ripple effects beyond the 2024 Yankees. He has been in the conversation for American League Rookie of the Year and this absence might push him back in the race. ROY voting now has impacts for clubs and players as certain top prospects can net their clubs an extra draft pick if they are promoted to the Opening Day roster and win the award, while other guys can earn themselves a full year of service time even if they haven’t been up all year.

Gil himself isn’t PPI eligible since he wasn’t a top prospect coming into the year but guys like Colton Cowser and Austin Wells are eligible for the prospect promotion incentive and perhaps now have a greater chance of netting their clubs a draft pick.

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