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Cubs, Mariners, Pirates Interested In Josh Naylor
Guardians first baseman Josh Naylor drew trade interest from the Cubs, Mariners, and Pirates during the Winter Meetings, Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports. There is no indication that the Guards were in serious talks about a deal, and as Hoynes notes, “for an offensively challenged club, it seems strange that they’d consider trading [Naylor]. But…it never hurts to listen.”
The 26-year-old Naylor hit .308/.354/.489 with 17 homers over 495 plate appearances last season, marking his second straight year of quality production. The first baseman has a 124 wRC+ in 993 PA since Opening Day 2022, and this past season saw Naylor develop into more of a well-rounded hitter than just a power bat. Naylor’s average and OBP increased greatly from 2022, and Naylor also cut back on his strikeouts without losing any of his power. While he doesn’t walk much, that approach isn’t unusual for a Cleveland team that prioritizes contact above all.
It seems quite possible that Naylor hasn’t yet reached his ceiling, given that his early-career development was stunted by both the pandemic-shortened 2020 season and then a nasty fractured ankle that cut short his 2021 season and cost him a bit of time at the start of the 2022 campaign. Naylor also missed about a month due to an oblique strain in 2023, and still generated positive numbers despite a very slow start over the season’s first six weeks.
Naylor’s 128 wRC+ actually outpaced Jose Ramirez’s 123 mark for tops among all Guardians regulars, and Josh’s younger brother Bo Naylor also delivered a 124 wRC+ in the smaller sample size of 230 PA. These were among the few highlights in an overall dismal year at the plate for the rest of Cleveland’s roster, as the lack of hitting and multiple injuries in the rotation left the Guardians with a mediocre 76-86 record in Terry Francona’s final season as manager.
As Hoynes noted, moving Naylor would seem counterintuitive for a Guardians team that is seemingly looking to upgrade the lineup. However, as is often the case with the Guards’ moves, there is a financial element at play. Naylor is projected to earn $7.2MM in the second of three arbitration years, and he is eligible to hit free agency after the 2025 campaign. While Ramirez is a notable exception, the Guardians generally doesn’t try to retain star talent unless they’re locked up to extensions earlier in their careers, so Naylor could potentially join a long list of notable Cleveland players who were dealt with at least one year remaining of team control.
Just this offseason, it is widely expected that the Guardians will deal Shane Bieber since the former Cy Young Award winner will be a free agent in the 2024-25 offseason. Cleveland has already moved Cal Quantrill to the Rockies in a salary dump type of trade, and this winter in particular carries extra financial uncertainty for the small-market Guardians since the Diamond Sports Group’s bankruptcy proceedings could see the team lose their TV deal. Since their payroll isn’t expected to go up, that leaves the front office with some tricky decisions to make in figuring out how to improve the roster as a whole.
With this in mind, Naylor becomes a very interesting possible trade chip in an offseason market thin on big bats, particularly in free agency. Any number of teams would certainly have interest in a 26-year-old who might not have hit his offensive peak yet, and a new club would have two years to perhaps ink Naylor to an extension.
Based on what Cleveland usually seeks out in such trades of established talent, the Guardians could try and obtain an MLB-ready who can help the team in 2024, as well as a longer-term prospect or two. Turning to the clubs in Hoynes’ report, the highly-ranked farm systems of the Pirates and Cubs could certainly have the assets to fit what would surely be a big asking price from the Guardians.
Acquiring Naylor would instantly fill the Cubs’ needs at first base, and provide a nice pivot after Chicago missed out on Shohei Ohtani. Cubs GM Carter Hawkins is very familiar with Naylor, as Hawkins previously worked in Cleveland’s front office before heading to Wrigleyville following the 2021 season. As much as Jed Hoyer’s front office has been hesitant about dealing from its stash of young talent, two years of relatively inexpensive control over Naylor is a tempting proposition, and it would allow the Cubs to then devote extra dollars to free agency.
There is some irony in the Pirates looking to land a player from another team looking to cut costs, given Pittsburgh’s long history of low payrolls. However, the Bucs have a clear need at first base, and acquiring Naylor would also be another major sign that the team is preparing to finally return to contention. That push might even come as early as 2024, given the NL Central’s state of flux.
The Mariners are looking for a particular kind of offensive upgrade, as Naylor would fit Seattle’s prioritization of good contact hitters. The M’s have already parted ways with Teoscar Hernandez, Eugenio Suarez, and Jarred Kelenic in their pursuit of more contact, and acquiring Naylor could also give the Mariners cover to trade current first baseman Ty France.
Marlins Acquire Christian Bethancourt From Guardians
The Marlins and Guardians have announced a trade that will send catcher Christian Bethancourt to Miami in exchange for cash considerations. Daniel Alvarez-Montes of El Extrabase was the first to report Bethancourt going to the Marlins, while the Miami Herald’s Craig Mish reported the cash return to Cleveland (both links to X).
The trade adds context to the Guardians’ $one-year, $4MM deal with Austin Hedges from earlier today. The signing initially seemed curious given how Bethancourt and Bo Naylor were already lined up as Cleveland’s catching corps, but obviously the Guards were planning two moves at once in both signing Hedges and then flipping Bethancourt to the catcher-needy Marlins.
Bethancourt is a veteran of seven MLB seasons, though none in 2018-21 as he played in the minor leagues and spent a season playing in South Korea. Returning to the big leagues with the A’s in 2022, Bethancourt was then dealt to Tampa Bay in July 2022, and the catcher ended up hitting .235/.257/.399 over 483 PA with the Rays over the last two seasons. With his numbers falling off at the plate in 2023, the Rays outrighted Bethancourt off their 40-man roster at the start of November, and the Guardians claimed him off waivers two days later.
Almost at that exact same time, Peter Bendix was in final talks with the Marlins to leave the Rays’ GM job and become Miami’s new president of baseball operations. As such, Bethancourt has become one of several ex-Tampa players that Bendix has already added to Miami’s roster during his brief time in charge of the front office.
While Bethancourt had exactly a league-average 100 wRC+ (from a .252/.283/.409 slash line and 11 homers in 333 PA) in 2022, it is safe to assume he probably won’t be viewed as a true starting catcher for the Marlins. Bethancourt and Nick Fortes at least provide the Fish with a slight upgrade on paper from last year’s catching tandem of Fortes and the non-tendered Jacob Stallings, as Bethancourt’s strong throwing arm can pair with Fortes’ glove for a defense-first approach. Bendix will probably keep an eye out for any more possible upgrades, as Fortes can still be optioned to the minors.
Bethancourt was projected to earn $2.3MM in arbitration salary this winter, so the Rays’ outright essentially served as an early non-tender for the team. This is Betancourt’s second of three arb-eligible years, so the Marlins have control on his services through the 2025 season.
Rays Reportedly Sign Edwin Uceta To Minor League Deal
The Rays and right-hander Edwin Uceta have agreed to a minor league deal, per reporter Francys Romero. Romero adds that the deal includes an invite to Spring Training.
Uceta first signed with the Dodgers out of the Dominican Republic back in 2016, and after climbing the organizational ladder eventually made his big league debut in 2021. Across 20 1/3 innings of work, Uceta struck out an impressive 27.2% of batters faced but struggled with his control, walking 13%. Those control issues combined with an unusually low 48.5% strand rate left Uceta with a 6.64 ERA despite a decent 4.40 FIP. That led the Dodgers to designate Uceta for assignment the following offseason, at which point he was picked up by the Diamondbacks.
Uceta’s time in Arizona was largely more of the same. While he got is control issues somewhat under control and saw his walk rate drop to 9.6%, Uceta struck out just 17.8% of batters faced during his 17 innings in the desert, pitching to a 5.82 ERA and 4.52 FIP while posting a similarly low 52.1% strand rate. The Diamondbacks eventually designated him for assignment themselves in early 2023 to make room for Evan Longoria on the 40-man roster. That set Uceta off on an organizational carousel. Throughout 2023, the right-hander was claimed by the Tigers, Pirates, Mets and Cubs before finally passing through outright waivers successfully in August.
Among those four organizations, he only appeared with the Mets in the major leagues, striking out three while walking two and hitting a batter across three scoreless innings. Most recently, Uceta has impressed across six starts in the Dominican Winter League, pitching to a 2.55 ERA across 24 2/3 innings of work. Looking ahead to the 2024 campaign, Uceta will join an organization known for its pitching development successes. With Tampa Bay, Uceta figures to get the chance to pitch his way into a big league bullpen role and establish himself as a major league regular for the first time in his career. Meanwhile, the Rays have the opportunity to work with a player on the periphery of the big leagues who comes with five years of team control, though he figures to be out of options entering the 2024 season, meaning he’ll need to stick on the club’s active roster if added.
Guardians To Sign Austin Hedges
The Guardians and catcher Austin Hedges are reportedly in agreement on a contract worth $4MM, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post. As noted by MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, the pact is a one-year deal.
A second-round pick by the Padres in the 2011 draft, Hedges made his MLB debut with San Diego back in 2015. After spending the first two seasons of his big league career in a reserve role, Hedges as the Padres’ primary catcher from 2017 to 2019, slashing just .208/.265/.380 but earning excellent marks for his defense behind the plate. Hedges started the shortened 2020 campaign in San Diego but was shipped to Cleveland in a nine-player deal that brought Mike Clevinger to San Diego. Hedges made just six appearances throughout the remainder of the season following the trade, but became the regular catcher in Cleveland during the 2021 and 2022 seasons. It was more of the same for Hedges during his time in Cleveland, as he batted a paltry .168/.228/.274 while posting elite defensive numbers.
In his first trip to the open market last season, Hedges landed with the Pirates on a one-year, $5MM deal before being dealt to the Rangers at the Trade Deadline, with whom he won the World Series as part of a catching corps that also featured Jonah Heim and Mitch Garver. The 30-year-old’s characteristic mix of anemic offense and strong defense continued last season. In 212 trips to the plate, Hedges posted a career-worst slash line of .184/.234/.327. While that 27 wRC+ is a whopping 73% worse than league average, Statcast’s Fielding Run Value metric put him in the 99th percentile among all MLB players last season. Hedges ranked in the 98th percentile with +13 framing runs while also posting a 90th percentile +8 blocks above average.
Those defensive chops earned him another shot in Cleveland, where the Guardians surely hope he can act as a mentor to young catcher Bo Naylor behind the plate. Naylor impressed in 67 games last season with a slash line of .237/.337/.470 (124 wRC+), but his defensive metrics left something to be desired as he was only slightly better than league average in terms of framing and below average in terms of blocking and controlling the running game. Hedges should be able to guide Naylor in each of those areas while also helping him stay rested throughout the season. His strong defense and game-calling ability should also be an asset for the Guardians’ many young pitchers, including Tanner Bibee and Gavin Williams.
Yankees To Acquire Two 40-Man Roster Players From Dodgers
The Yankees are poised to acquire two players on the Dodgers’ 40-man roster in exchange for a prospect not on the 40-man, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The names of the players in the deal are not yet known. Joel Sherman of the New York Post confirms Rosenthal’s report while adding that the deal, which is pending a medical review, would send one “end of roster” pitcher to the Yankees alongside a prospect on the 40-man roster. The deal would clear 40-man roster spots for LA’s reported deals with right-hander Joe Kelly and superstar Shohei Ohtani.
While it’s unclear which players are changing hands in the deal, it’s hardly a surprise that the sides would get together on such a trade. After all, the Dodgers’ 40-man roster is currently full, meaning they already needed to clear space on the 40-man to formally add Kelly and Ohtani. On the other hand, the Yankees just cleared two spots from their own 40-man roster in a seven-player trade with the Padres that brought back star slugger Juan Soto. While the additions of both Soto and center fielder Trent Grisham take up 40-man roster spots, that’s more than made up for by the departures of right-handers Jhony Brito, Michael King, and Randy Vasquez as well as catcher Kyle Higashioka. A deal between the sides allows the Dodgers to recoup some value for players they likely would have had to part with anyway, while the Yankees figure to take advantage of LA’s roster crunch to begin rebuilding its pitching depth in the aftermath of the Soto deal.
Latest On Luxury Tax Implications Of Shohei Ohtani’s Contract
Two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani rocked the baseball world yesterday by agreeing to a ten-year, $700MM deal with the Dodgers. That record-setting contract, taken at face value, would have unparalleled impact on the club’s payroll as calculated for luxury tax purposes. If Ohtani’s contract indeed counted as a $70MM hit to the club’s tax payroll, it would single-handedly push the Dodgers across the first level of the luxury tax even as the club sat at just $174MM in payroll for tax purposes prior to the deal with Ohtani. While the big market Dodgers have never shied away from the tax in the past, paying into the tax during each of the past three seasons, the Ohtani deal would all but guarantee they would continue to do so for the next decade, leaving them vulnerable to escalating penalties.
As reported by Jeff Passan of ESPN, however, the reported deferrals in Ohtani’s deal could lessen the tax burden on LA considerably. Passan notes that Major League Baseball applies a discount to deferrals in luxury tax calculations to determine the present-day value of contracts. Given the fact that “most of” Ohtani’s contract is expected to be deferred, Passan suggests that Ohtani’s deal, for luxury tax purposes, is expected to settle in the range of $40MM to $50MM when all is said and done. While those numbers aren’t final and won’t figure to become exact until the contract is properly finalized and announced, that range substantially alters the impact Ohtani will have on LA’s luxury tax bill over his decade-long tenure with the club.
After all, if Ohtani’s luxury tax hit for the 2024 season were to shrink from the $70MM his on-paper AAV would suggest to a figure in the range of $45MM, that would put the club’s luxury tax payroll at roughly $219MM using the numbers supplied by RosterResource. For a Dodgers club that saw its luxury tax payroll land at $267MM last year after peaking at a whopping $293MM in 2022 (per Cot’s Baseball Contracts), that would leave the Dodgers with the ability to add upwards of $50MM before even matching their 2023 payroll for luxury tax purposes, and just under $75MM in room before their hit their all-time high.
That’s great news for Dodgers fans, as the club has plenty of work to do in improving its roster even after adding a once-in-a-lifetime talent like Ohtani. Their new DH should complement Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman well at the top of the lineup, but offense was never the primary concern of the Dodgers this winter. The club’s pitching staff was essentially middle-of-the-pack in 2023, with a 4.06 ERA that ranked 13th in the majors and a 4.23 FIP that ranked 15th. Looking ahead to 2024, the club’s only locked in starting pitcher is sophomore right-hander Bobby Miller. While he figures to be joined in the rotation by a veteran presence in the form Walker Buehler, Buehler hasn’t pitched in the majors since early 2022 due to the second Tommy John surgery of his career, casting doubt on his ability to be the durable, front-of-the-rotation arm that the Dodgers need.
While the Dodgers have been connected to plenty of top arms on the trade market this offseason such as Tyler Glasnow, Dylan Cease, and Corbin Burnes, Ohtani’s relatively reasonable luxury tax hit should allow the club to be more aggressive when it comes to top-of-the-market options in free agency. The free agent starting pitching market is of course headlined by NPB star Yoshinobu Yamamoto, for whom the Dodgers are considered to be a likely finalist. Looking beyond Yamamoto, the likes of 2023 NL Cy Young award winner Blake Snell and World Series champion Jordan Montgomery are still available. The market’s second tier of starting pitchers, meanwhile, includes interesting arms like Shota Imanaga, Marcus Stroman, and Lucas Giolito. The addition of any of these arms would surely bolster the club’s rotation headed into 2024, and is made all the more feasible by the deferrals reportedly built into Ohtani’s contract.
Royals Sign Will Smith
The Royals announced the signing of left-hander Will Smith to a one-year contract. It’s reportedly a $5MM guarantee for the CAA client, who could earn up to $1MM in additional incentives. He’d receive $125K for every fifth appearance between 25 and 60 contests.
Smith, 34, returns to the club with whom he made his big league debut back in 2012. Then a starting pitcher, Smith took the ball for 16 turns through the rotation during his age-22 rookie campaign, struggling to a 5.32 ERA and 4.66 FIP across 89 2/3 innings of work. The Royals converted Smith to relief the following season, and the southpaw hasn’t looked back since. He posted a solid 3.24 ERA, 23% better than league average by ERA+, and a 3.03 FIP from 2013-16 across 202 2/3 innings of work split between the Royals, Brewers, and Giants organizations.
Smith missed the entire 2017 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, but returned to the mound in 2018 to deliver the finest two seasons of his career. Pitching for San Francisco in 2018-19, Smith posted a 2.66 ERA and 2.71 FIP, striking out a whoping 35.8% of batters faced while racking up 48 saves and earning his lone career All Star appearance during the 2019 season. That dominant performance earned him a three-year, $40MM deal with the Braves in free agency the following winter.
The lefty struggled during the first season of that deal, posting a 4.50 ERA with a whopping 7.38 FIP during the shortened 2020 season, though that amounted to just 16 innings of work. The remainder of the contract saw Smith post decent numbers out of the bullpen as the Braves won the World Series in 2021, though he would ultimately be shipped to Houston the following year in a swap that brought Jake Odorizzi to Atlanta. Overall, Smith posted a 3.69 ERA and 4.21 FIP over 127 innings while striking out 27.9% of batters faced and collecting two World Series rings between the 2021 and 2022 campaigns.
In his return to the open market last winter, Smith lingered on the free agent market until late March before ultimately signing with the Rangers on a one-year, $1.5MM guarantee. Though Smith posted a roughly league average 4.40 ERA in 2023, he managed a more palatable 3.36 FIP and recorded 22 saves in 27 chances for Texas last season as they went on to make the postseason for the first time since 2016 before winning the first World Series championship in franchise history and earning Smith his third consecutive World Series ring.
Back on the free agent market once again, Smith wasted no time in agreeing to a deal this winter, and figures to get the opportunity to close for the Royals entering the 2024 campaign. The contract will give the southpaw the opportunity to bounce back on a team with minimal hopes of making the playoffs next season, a similar situation to the one Kansas City offered Aroldis Chapman in 2023 before he joined Smith in Texas following a midseason trade. Meanwhile the Royals are surely hoping that, if they do find themselves on the outside looking in with regards to the playoff race, Smith will have pitched well enough by the time the trade deadline rolls around next summer to net the club a solid return just as Chapman did when he was swapped for Cole Ragans. Ragans, 26 this week, made 12 starts for the Royals down the stretch after the club acquired him from the Rangers and impressed with a 2.64 ERA and 31.1% strikeout rate in 71 2/3 innings of work.
Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported Smith and the Royals had agreed to a one-year, $5MM guarantee. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported the possibility of $1MM in incentives, which the Associated Press specified.
Scott Boras Discusses Gerrit Cole’s 2024 Opt-Out Clause
Yankees ace Gerrit Cole just won the first Cy Young award of his career in a unanimous vote last month, adding another significant accomplishment to the right-hander’s incredible resume. The Yankees, meanwhile, are desperate to get back to the playoffs after an 82-80 campaign in 2023. The club dealt away much of its big-league ready pitching depth in order to acquire Juan Soto and Trent Grisham in a seven-player deal last week. While the trade bolstered the club’s lineup considerably, it leaves them more reliant than ever on the 33-year-old than ever as they look ahead to the 2024 season. While bounceback seasons from the likes of Carlos Rodon and Nestor Cortes could certainly take some of the burden off Cole’s shoulders, it’s hard to imagine much success in the Bronx next year if Cole can’t muster a repeat performance.
Betting on Cole is a fairly safe decision for the Yankees. Since being swapped from the Pirates to the Astros prior to the 2018 season, Cole has been at or near the top of virtually all pitching leaderboards. His 28.5 fWAR over the past six seasons leads all MLB pitchers, and no hurler has thrown more innings than Cole’s 1,076 2/3 frames. Cole’s 2.93 ERA is only outclassed by Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, and Walker Buehler among starting pitchers in that timeframe. His 33.4% strikeout rate is only outclassed by deGrom, Chris Sale, and Tyler Glasnow, while his 2.97 SIERA is bested by only deGrom and Sale. That combination of dominance and durability puts Cole on the shortlist for the best starting pitchers in the game at the moment.
As Cole enters year five of his nine-year, $324MM contract with the Yankees, speculation has begun to arise regarding the opt-out he holds on the final four years of this contract in New York. Even as Cole would be entering the free agent market at the age of 34, it seems all but certain that the righty would be able to top the four years and $144MM remaining on his contract on the open market barring a catastrophic 2024 campaign. With that being said, the contract isn’t as simple as Cole holding the sole decision over his opt-out clause. Should Cole decide to exercise his opt-out, the Yankees can void that decision by tacking an addition year and $36MM onto Cole’s existing contract, effectively offering him a one-year, $36MM extension that would take the sum of his deal in the Bronx to $360MM over ten years.
Agent Scott Boras, who represents Cole, has indicated he believes that’s exactly how the situation will play out next year. As quoted by USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, Boras indicated that he and Cole “would anticipate” that both Cole opting out of his contract and the Yankees voiding that decision “are going to happen” next offseason. It’s a reasonable assumption to make, given the likelihood that Cole will be able to command a guarantee greater than $144MM on the open market next season. For him to actually get the opportunity to test the open market, the Yankees would need to decide they aren’t interested in retaining Cole on what would effectively be a five-year, $180MM contract.
Assuming Cole posts a reasonable facsimile of his recent performance in 2024, such a deal would appear to be roughly fair market value for his services. After all, deGrom received a five-year, $185MM contract from the Rangers last winter entering his own age-35 campaign, despite the fact that he had pitched just 156 1/3 innings over the 2021-22 seasons. Cole, by contrast, has already surpassed that tw0-year innings total before throwing a single pitch in 2024. While the $36MM average annual value of the deal would be among the heftier yearly salaries in the game, it’s no different than what the Yankees are currently paying Cole and clubs around the league haven’t shied away from offering large annual salaries to top starting pitchers, even as they grow older. The deals Scherzer and Verlander signed with the Mets the past two offseasons are perhaps the best examples of this, and each veteran hurler was offered an AAV north of $40MM on pacts that would cover Scherzer’s late thirties and Verlander’s early forties.
Shohei Ohtani Notes: Advertising Revenue, 40-Man Roster Move
The baseball world is still reeling from the news of two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani signing a ten-year, $700MM deal with the Dodgers. Not only is it the largest contract in baseball history (by a mile), it is the most lucrative deal for any professional athlete, surpassing the four-year €555MM contract (approximately $674MM in USD) soccer star Lionel Messi signed with FC Barcelona in 2017. Given the unprecedented nature of the deal, it’s more than fair for fans to wonder if it makes financial sense. Is Ohtani genuinely worth nearly twice as much as Aaron Judge? Can a single player truly provide $70MM in value per year over the next ten years?
Moreover, various outlets have reported that the Dodgers significantly outbid the competition to secure Ohtani’s services. J.P. Hoornstra of Dodgers Nation reports that the Dodgers upped their offer by as much as $100MM on the final day of negotiations. Jon Heyman of the New York Post quotes a team source from one of the finalists, who claimed, “We certainly were not at 699 [million dollars].” Meanwhile, when asked if the Angels had made an offer close to that $700MM number, team president John Carpino simply responded, “No comment” (per Sarah Valenzuela of the L.A. Times).
However, it is critical to remember that Ohtani’s deal is not worth $700MM in present-day value, due to the deferred payments in the contract. As Jeff Passan of ESPN eloquently explained, “Money today is more valuable than money tomorrow, inflation being what it is.” Thus, the other finalists for Ohtani might not have offered him anywhere close to $700MM total, but that doesn’t mean the Dodgers blew any other offer out of the water in terms of present-day value.
More to the point, while Ohtani’s contract might be unprecedented, so too is Ohtani an unprecedented player. The value he will bring to his new organization goes beyond his performance on the field, and the Dodgers could be in for a windfall if they know how to market their brand-new international superstar. Sam Blum and Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic quote an anonymous MLB evaluator who claims the deal will “pay for itself within six or seven years… Even just on advertising alone.” That might be an exaggeration, but still, it’s clear how highly Ohtani is valued around the league.
As many sources have pointed out (including Bob Nightengale of USA Today), Ohtani earned approximately $40MM in endorsement deals last offseason. The MLB player with the next highest endorsement-related income was Mike Trout, who took home $5MM. If Ohtani can personally command so much money, the team he plays for should be able to cash in big as well.
According to Mike DiGiovanna of the L.A. Times, the Angels earned somewhere between $10MM and $20MM per year in “Ohtani-related advertising, promotions, [and] marketing revenue.” Nightengale believes that number was even higher, claiming Ohtani “brought in $25 million a year.” Both reporters suggest the Dodgers could double that revenue, thanks to their higher level of popularity, both locally and across the globe. At the high end of that estimation, the Dodgers would earn back more than half of Ohtani’s annual salary, and the team is surely hoping he will continue to bring extra value to the franchise long after his ten-year deal is complete.
On that note, it’s worth acknowledging that although the Dodgers are regularly big spenders, their front office has demonstrated a keen ability to get the best bang for its buck. While some high-spending teams have crashed and burned in recent years, the Dodgers have made the playoffs in 11 straight seasons, winning ten NL West division titles in that time. They have won over 100 games in four of the last five years, and the only year they didn’t, the shortened 2020 campaign, they went 43-17 (.717, a 116-win pace) en route to a World Series championship. This team spends in abundance, but they don’t spend frivolously. If the Dodgers are paying Ohtani $700MM, it’s because they think he’s worth even more, and they haven’t given us any reason to doubt their accounting so far.
In other Ohtani news, Jack Harris of the L.A. Times points out that the signing has not yet been made official. However, that doesn’t mean the deal is at risk of falling through. Ohtani himself has already confirmed the agreement, and it’s hard to imagine his physical would hold up the deal; the Dodgers already know he is recovering from his second UCL procedure and won’t pitch in 2024. Instead, Harris suggests that the Dodgers are still figuring out their corresponding 40-man roster move. The club’s roster is currently full, so they will need to make a trade or designate someone for assignment in order to finalize Ohtani’s contract. What’s more, they also need to free up a roster spot for veteran reliever Joe Kelly, whose one-year, $8MM contract has not been finalized either. Expect a trade or a roster move in the coming days.
