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Quick Hits: Boras, Drew, Red Sox, Orioles

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In an interview with Peter Gammons, Scott Boras expressed his confidence that Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales will find good contracts with teams that will put more value on their contributions than the value of (possibly second- or third-round) draft picks.  With that said, Boras also believes the free agent system needs to be changed to give players more freedom and to encourage teams to spend.  “We should be doing everything possible to try to get smaller market teams the necessary veteran leadership to contend,” Boras said.  His suggestions include banning qualifying offers for players over 30 years old, and a monetary compensation system for teams who lose free agents under age-30 that the clubs can re-invest in signings or draft spending.

Here's some more from around the baseball world…

  • An executive on a team that explored signing Stephen Drew told Andy Martino of the New York Daily News yesterday that Drew's medicals were raising some concerns.  Another source tells WEEI.com's Rob Bradford today (Twitter link) that Drew is "perfectly healthy.  No physical issues."
  • The Red Sox are looking to add outfield depth, Jason Mastrodonato of MassLive.com reports, and Scott Podsednik is one name on Boston's current long list of external candidates.  Ryan Gleichowski, Podsednik's agent, recently told Mastrodonato that Podsednik was in shape and eager to continue his career after sitting out the 2013 season.  We also recently heard that the Sox have some interest in Padres outfielder Chris Denorfia.
  • The Red Sox will have an estimated $96MM coming off the books following the 2014 seasons, WEEI.com's Alex Speier writes, leaving the team with lots of flexibility to re-sign David Ortiz and/or Jon Lester, as well as explore new player acquisitions.
  • The Orioles seem to be using a "stars and scrubs" strategy in building their team, Fangraphs' Dave Cameron writes, and the tactic doesn't seem to be working given the clear holes on the roster and their relatively limited payroll space.
  • Liz Mullen of Sports Business Journal reports (subscription required) that Dan Lozano's MVP Sports Group has hired former Dodgers director of Asian operations Acey Kohrogi to serve as the firm's head of Asian operations.  Kohrogi spent 18 years with the Dodgers and helped them attract the likes of Hideo Nomo, Takashi Saito, Hiroki Kuroda, Chan Ho Park and Hong-Chih Kuo to the Major Leagues.
  • The Phillies' new 25-year, $2.5 billion TV contract will theoretically pay them an average of $100MM per year, though David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News crunches the numbers to explain how that $100MM average will actually work out to a much smaller annual payout.  MLBTR's Jeff Todd also recently examined the Phillies' TV deal and noted that the contract could just help the team continue its high-spending ways, rather than allow them to raise payroll even more.
  • The Giants' bullpen and the Blue Jays' second base platoon project as the worst positions on contending teams, according to Fangraphs' Jeff Sullivan.  The Giants' pen projects as below-replacement level as a group thanks to several pitchers that could be declining, while the Jays' Maicer Izturis/Ryan Goins platoon stands out as a weak spot.  The Dodgers' second base spot also technically makes Sullivan's list, though he says that's only due to a lack of information about the newly-signed Alexander Guerrero.

Assessing The Impact Of The Phillies’ New TV Deal

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We learned recently that the Phillies had reached agreement with Comcast SportsNet on a 25-year, $2.5 billion TV deal that also grants the club an equity stake and rights to ad revenue. (Though the advertising split is not yet known, that is a somewhat unusual provision that could add significant value, note Matt Gelb and Bob Fernandez of the Philadelphia Inquirer.) The deal, which kicks in for the 2016 season, had long been rumored to be in the works.

The new, $100MM average annual revenue stream certainly promises to provide a boost over the $35MM average the club enjoyed under its previous deal. But the cash flow will not jump to nine figures overnight: by my calculations, with somewhere between a 3 and 4% annual bump built into the deal, the Phils will start out drawing something in the realm of $65MM for 2016. (And, of course, the future revenue streams must be discounted in assessing their present value, though that fact is equally true of other teams' deals.)

Comparing the $100MM average across the league, Philadelphia's deal seemingly places it in roughly the position that was expected for the size of its market. (Click here for an earlier update from Wendy Thurm of Fangraphs on league-wide TV deals.) When factoring in revenue, equity, and other components, the Philadelphia pact falls in the realm of the Rangers' and Angels' recent deals, according to Maury Brown of Forbes. Thurm tweets that the terms are "in line" with expectations given the market size, while noting that the MLB franchises in Los Angeles, New York, and Boston all have greater packages when network equity is accounted for. (Twitter links.) Gelb and Fernandez call the deal "commensurate with recent packages across baseball." 

Ultimately, however, the deal does not appear to provide a basis for a serious leap in the club's current or future payroll as against the rest of the league's well-off franchises. As Ryan Lawrence of the Philadelphia Daily News wrote just over two months ago, it seemed possible that the new deal would boost the previous $35MM annual revenue figure to over $200MM per year, with an annual figure above $150MM "highly probable." Those kinds of numbers would have outpaced other recent TV contracts.

Though Lawrence acknowledged that predicting deals based on recent comparables constituted "guesswork," his earlier discussion indicates that the Phils did not ultimately break new ground with their deal. In other words, it does not appear that Philadelphia landed the "Dodgers-esque" deal that some observers thought possible — at least in terms of impact on relative spending capacity. With the club's ratings dropping a remarkable 40% in each of the last two seasons, going from first in the game to seventh in the process, one can't help but wonder what impact the team's on-field downturn may have had on negotiations.

Depending upon one's perspective, then, the deal could be seen as something of a disappointment. But there is value in holding serve, especially with some predicting a looming bubble. It could be that the run-up in the TV deal market is at an end, and at a minimum the Phillies appear to have secured their market position as one of the league's top spenders. 

As Lawrence reports, the team seems to be characterizing the deal as a continuation of its current trajectory. According to team president David Montgomery:

"[The new contract] might not represent quite a significant change as what occurred in other markets. But we continue to believe, thanks to the tremendous fan support, that we'll continue to be one of the top five clubs in payroll each year. … But, as we proved last year, payroll alone doesn't guarantee success. We want to focus on making the best player decisions possible." 

Montgomery echoed those comments in explaining that the club's payroll was not expected to undergo major changes, as Gelb reports:

"I don't see us going any higher than where we've been. For us, the secret is to spend it well, not necessarily tied to how much. Since we moved in here, we have been able to be a club that is substantial in its payroll. I assume we will continue to be in the top four or five of the game. Hopefully we'll make some good decisions and people will see an improved club in 2014. That's what we believe."

Indeed, as those comments would indicate, Philly has pursued a strategy of fairly measured offseason spending. While time will tell how the new TV deal impacts the Phillies and the broader market, the early indication is that it will not provide a dramatic new infusion of cash into the marketplace, but will allow Philadelphia to retain its foothold amongst the more financially flexible MLB clubs. 

Phillies Agree To New TV Contract

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SATURDAY, 9:54am: The Phillies' ownership stake in CSN Philadelphia will stand at 25% under the new deal, report John Ourand and Eric Fisher of Sports Business Daily, though it is not known what the team's previous position was. The rights fee will be paid out on a schedule that increases about 3 to 4% per year, averaging out to $100MM per season over the 25-year term.

FRIDAY, 1:38pm: The Phillies' new deal with Comcast SportsNet is for 25 years, according to MLB.com's Todd Zolecki.  The contract is worth $2.5 billion in addition to an equity stake and ad revenue, tweets Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer.

THURSDAY, 9:26pm: The Phillies have agreed to a new local TV contract with Comcast SportsNet, David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News reports.  A CSN spokesperson confirmed the deal in an e-mail to Murphy.  Terms of the deal weren't announced, but Kevin Cooney of the Bucks County Courier Times reports that the contract is between 20-25 years in length and is worth a "massive" amount of money, according to a source.  The Phillies were already getting roughly $35MM per year in their current deal with CSN, and the new contract will begin once the current deal expires following the 2015 season.

Given the length of the new deal, the Phillies seem set to be the latest team to earn over $1 billion from their TV rights.  As Murphy notes, however, it's too soon to know how the extra revenue will impact the club's player payroll, as the Phils have (if anything) seemingly been looking to trim payroll though they knew this TV windfall was in the offing.

"We're pleased to confirm that NBCUniversal and Comcast SportsNet have signed a new long-term deal with the Philadelphia Phillies that will expand Comcast SportsNet's role as the Phillies' primary TV partner," the spokesman said. "Although the terms of the comprehensive deal are confidential, details surrounding the 2014 schedule of games will be provided in the coming months." 
Read more at http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/sports/phillies/Phillies-television-partnership-with-Comcast-SportsNet.html#0s2s5OYjX8tSjLg1.99

Quick Hits: Free Agents, Scherzer, Papelbon, Mulder

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With Nelson Cruz, Stephen Drew, Ubaldo Jimenez, Kendrys Morales and Ervin Santana all in seeming free agent limbo after rejecting qualifying offers, Yahoo Sports' Jeff Passan argues that the current free agent compensation system has proven to be too limiting.  While teams will give up draft picks to sign bigger stars like Robinson Cano, the so-called second tier of free agents are finding it much harder to get work.  "Last offseason, there were a number of guys affected in ways different than we expected compared to a freer market to pursue jobs.  It appears that's happening again, " MLBPA executive director Tony Clark said.  One club executive suggested to Passan that teams could make qualifying offers to more free agents next winter given the evidence about how it pushes prices down for some players.

Here's some more from around baseball…

  • The Tigers have recently made several important moves in the post-Christmas offseason period, and 2014's big early-year move could be laying the groundwork for a Max Scherzer extension, MLB.com's Jason Beck opines.  Beck thinks GM Dave Dombrowski will look to a one-year deal for 2014 to avoid going to arbitration with Scherzer, and those talks could lead to negotiations with agent Scott Boras over a longer-term extension.
  • Also from Beck, he wonders if the Tigers could discuss a new contract with Miguel Cabrera (signed through 2015) or possibly add another reliever to the bullpen.  Detroit has already addressed its main bullpen need by signing closer Joe Nathan, and also acquired Ian Krol and Joba Chamberlain for the relief corps.
  • Jonathan Papelbon discussed his name surfacing in recent trade rumors, the differences between the Phillies' and Red Sox clubhouse atmospheres and his joy at seeing his ex-Boston teammates win the World Series last October in a frank radio interview with Rob Bradford and John McDonald on WEEI's Hot Stove Show.  A partial transcript of the interview is available at WEEI.com.
  • The Phillies were interested in Mark Mulder before the veteran signed with the Angels, FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal reports (Twitter link).
  • Forbes Magazine's Maury Brown discusses Major League Baseball's growing revenues and the effect on player salaries and acquisitions in a podcast with BostInno's Alex Reimer, who has a partial transcript of the interview here.
  • MLB.com's Anthony DiComo covers a number of Mets-related topics as part of a reader mailbag, including how he doesn't see Dee Gordon or Didi Gregorius as logical trade targets for the team.

Gammons On Gardner, Denorfia, Drew

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Here are some hot stove items from Peter Gammons in his latest piece for his namesake website, GammonsDaily.com…

  • Gammons adds the Phillies to the list of teams who "have taken a run" at acquiring Brett Gardner from the Yankees.  Philadelphia is one of "at least a half-dozen teams" who have checked in on Gardner — we've seen the Tigers, Reds, Indians, and Giants also linked to Gardner earlier in the offseason.  Both Yankees president Randy Levine and GM Brian Cashman have said they admire Gardner's play and aren't willing to move him, though Gammons feels that Cashman "won’t move [Gardner] until and unless [Cashman] has to for starting pitching."  This is just my speculation, but Gammons' phrasing could be a hint that the Yankees could shop Gardner if they fail to land Masahiro Tanaka.
  • The Rangers, Red Sox and Rockies are three of "at least a half-dozen teams" who have asked the Padres about Chris Denorfia.  Colorado's interest has presumably dried up due to their acquisition of Drew Stubbs.  San Diego GM Josh Byrnes isn't willing to discuss trading Denorfia as long as he feels the Padres can be contenders, and Byrnes thinks his club's offseason moves could put them in the playoff mix.  The Rangers also showed interest in Denorfia last July before the trade deadline.
  • Mets assistant GM J.P. Ricciardi recently claimed that his team was happy with Ruben Tejada as a starting shortstop and that the free agent shortstop market wasn't to the Mets' liking, but Gammons hears otherwise from an NL general manager.  The GM believes the Mets are concerned about their inexperience up the middle (Tejada at short, Juan Lagares in center and Travis d'Arnaud behind the plate) and are only seeming disinterested in Stephen Drew as part of negotiations with agent Scott Boras.
  • If Drew re-signs with the Red Sox, Gammons doesn't expect Boston to deal Will Middlebrooks, as the team still values his power.
  • The offseason's most interesting overlooked deal is the Athletics/Rangers swap that sent Craig Gentry to Oakland and Michael Choice to Texas, Gammons opines.  Gentry is a right-handed bat who can spell Coco Crisp in center or replace him in case of injury, and "the A’s think Gentry’s comp is at least Peter Bourjos," Gammons writes.  Choice, meanwhile, gives the Rangers a corner outfield bat who can spell Shin-Soo Choo against left-handed pitching.

West Notes: GMs, Tanaka, A’s DH, Cruz

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The annual "Black Monday" NFL head coach firing day does not have an analog for baseball GMs, who have enjoyed much better job security than either those coaches or MLB managers, writes Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. Since 2011, only Larry Beinfest (the Marlins' former president of baseball operations) has been canned amongst top baseball operations men. Ten GMs have been in place since at least 2006, while only nine of the remaining twenty teams have undergone what Piecoro classifies as "full regime changes." Though several elements — such as baseball's long player development timeline — may support this phenomenon, Piecoro says that we could see more front office shakeups in the near future. He lists several GMs who could be on a short leash, many of whom represent western division clubs: Kevin Towers of the Diamondbacks, Dan O'Dowd of the Rockies, Jack Zduriencik of the Mariners, Ruben Amaro Jr. of the Phillies, and Jerry Dipoto of the Angels.

Here's more from the National and American League West:

  • D-Backs fans should temper their expectations about the possibility of the club landing Masahiro Tanaka, writes MLB.com's Steve Gilbert. Though Arizona has been prominently connected to the hurler, Gilbert says that the commitment needed to beat the market on Tanaka would be "very tough" to cram into the club's payroll space.
  • The Athletics are likely to employ John Jaso as the club's primary designated hitter rather than adding salary to put a new bat in the lineup, says Jane Lee of MLB.com. Yoenis Cespedes and Coco Crisp could also see time in the DH slot to reduce their wear and tear in the outfield, Lee notes. Meanwhile, Lee notes, the club is highly unlikely to trade away Cespedes (unless it gets a huge offer) and does not seem to be in play for free agent Nelson Cruz.
  • The Astros made a surprising addition to the club's 40-man roster recently, protecting unheralded 23-year-old Luis Cruz from the Rule 5 draft. As Jose De Jesus Ortiz of the Houston Chronicle writes for Baseball America (subscription required), Cruz exploded last year and caught the attention of GM Jeff Luhnow. "We promoted him to Double-A not really expecting him to do what he did," said Luhnow. "He went out and dominated." Though Cruz threw only 17 innings at that level, he also notched 10.2 K/9 against 3.2 BB/9 across 113 1/3 innings  in High-A (though his 5.16 ERA was less promising). "The fact is that he is lefthanded, he profiles as a starting pitcher and has dominant stuff," Luhnow explained.
  • The American League West race gets its own spot on ESPN.com's Buster Olney's top storylines of 2014 (Insider link). The division features big money additions to the Rangers and Mariners, as well as numerous interesting newcomers to the rosters of the A's, Angels, and Astros. As Olney explains, the results of the division's arm race — and the fallout for those teams that fail to meet expectations — promises to be great baseball theater.

Cafardo On Tanaka, Jimenez, Cruz, Lackey, Ichiro

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In this week's column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes that the Orioles owe it to their fans to take a shot at a championship by bolstering the roster.  The O's moved Jim Johnson to save on his expected $10MM salary for 2014 but the nixing of Grant Balfour's deal leaves them without a proven closer.  The Orioles, with a few fixes, could be exciting and fun to watch, but they need more if they want to win it all.  More from this week's column..

  • Cafardo cautions not to sleep on the Red Sox in the Masahiro Tanaka hunt and one AL scout says it’s the perfect time for the Red Sox to strike. “They have veteran pitchers in the final year or two years remaining on their deals,” he said. “They’ll be clearing out a lot of payroll soon. I know they feel they have good young pitching on the horizon, but Tanaka should be a very good No. 2 or No. 3 starter on any staff. I would think with their emphasis on pitching, they would get into it.” The Yankees, Cubs, Rangers, and Dodgers figure to be the most aggressive and the Angels, Phillies, Royals, and Blue Jays are expected to get into it.
  • Will the Red Sox's experience with Daisuke Matsuzaka scare them off of Tanaka?  “I don’t think that can enter their thinking. I’m sure they would have gone after Yu Darvish in retrospect,” said one National League GM.
  • Cafardo recently spoke with a few GMs who feel the Yankees may wind up with Ubaldo Jimenez, even if they land Tanaka.  “He had an excellent second half, has great stuff, and he has the type of personality that would fit New York,” one GM said. “He doesn’t let things get to him. He’s good at shrugging off things and turning the page.”  If the Yankees ink both pitchers, it's pretty difficult to see them staying under the $189MM mark.
  • Nelson Cruz is the best available free agent among position players, but his demand of four years at $75MM has turned off teams.  While other PED guys such as Jhonny Peralta have cashed in, teams are worried that Cruz, who more relies on his power is of greater concern for teams who worry that being off the stuff could hurt his power numbers.
  • John Lackey’s name has come up consistently this winter, but the Red Sox aren’t motivated to deal him.  That could change, but the club is enthused about his $500K option for 2015.
  • It'll be interesting to see if the Yankees can move Ichiro Suzuki given their crowded outfield.  The Giants remain a possibility, Cafardo writes.
  • The Dodgers could still trade from their outfield surplus.  When it comes to Matt Kemp, of course, teams want to see how he rebounds from shoulder and ankle surgeries.
  • With Brian McCann aboard and Francisco Cervelli as backup, Yankees catcher Austin Romine is very much available.  
  • Johan Santana is getting closer to making a decision on a minor league deal with a team. There’s been some speculation about the Twins since Santana still resides in Fort Myers, Fla., where the Twins have spring training.  A small-market team such as the Astros could also have some interest.

Tanaka Notes: McGehee, AL West, Phillies

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Here are a few notes on Masahiro Tanaka, who MLB front office types say (via USA Today's Bob Nightengale on Twitter) will cost at least $17MM per season:

  • New Marlins infielder Casey McGehee, who played with Tanaka for Rakuten last season, tells Juan C. Rodriguez of the Sun Sentinel that Tanaka is worth the hype. "His forkball is the best one I’ve seen. … He was really special with that pitch," says McGehee. "Whoever gets him…it’s going to be money well spent."
  • The Athletics will be monitoring Tanaka's situation, but mostly because of the chance that he could go to another AL West team, InsideBayArea.com's John Hickey writes. The A's can afford the $20MM posting fee, but don't typically pay the enormous sums of cash necessary to sign free agents of Tanaka's status.
  • The Phillies are unlikely to do more than "take a flyer" on bidding for Tanaka, suggests Justin Klugh of Philly.com. GM Ruben Amaro Jr. seems "calm and confident in the 2014 Phillies for some reason," so it's unlikely he would make a big move for a top free agent. Also, the Phillies would have little to offer Tanaka, since they don't have a great shot of contending in the near future.

Masahiro Tanaka Links: Thursday

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After the Rakuten Golden Eagles made the long-awaited decision to post ace Masahiro Tanaka, the posting period opened this morning. Any team that is willing to pay his former club a posting fee of $20MM will have the right to negotiate with Tanaka over the next 30 days (a full refresher on the new rules can be found here). Tanaka's posting period comes to a close on Jan. 24 at 4pm CT, meaning that there could be as many as 700 more hours of drama, rumors and speculation regarding his ultimate destination. Here are today's Tanaka-centric links…

  • MLB.com's Richard Justice writes that teams see Tanaka not as a seven-year deal but rather as an investment to make an immediate impact that could yield a spot in the 2014 playoff picture. The Yankees would like to make an offer to close the bidding process before it truly begins, writes Justice, but several other teams likely feel the same.
  • Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes that while Tanaka's new agent, Casey Close, does not have Scott Boras' public reputation of bargaining hard, he does have that reputation within the industry. Close is no stranger to large deals, as he represents Derek Jeter and Zack Greinke among others.
  • Sherman also runs down a list of eight teams that he feels to be the Yankees' most serious competition for Tanaka: the Dodgers, Angels, Red Sox, Phillies, Rangers, Cubs, Diamondbacks and Mariners.
  • In a piece for FOX Sports, Gabe Kapler writes that he spoke to one Major League GM who thought Tanaka would sign for something in the six-year, $105MM neighborhood (not including the posting fee). Kapler feels that Tanaka's age and the potential bidding war will up the price to something in the range of seven years and $125MM (plus the $20MM posting fee). He also cautions that Tanaka is far from a sure thing and will need to display impeccable command of his fastball or add some movement to it in order to flourish in the Majors.
  • Troy Renck of the Denver Post can't imagine Tanaka signing for anything less than $100MM (Sulia link).
  • The next 30 days will tell us if the Dodgers are hitting their spending limit — self-imposed or otherwise — or if their lack of big spending thus far in the offseason has merely been as a result of waiting for Tanaka, writes Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times. Hernandez notes that the team already has five players under control through 2017 and would like that number to rise to seven with extensions to Clayton Kershaw and Hanley Ramirez.

Mutual Interest Between Phillies, Ryan Madson

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Though he's signed Major League contracts with the Reds and Angels in free agency over the past two offseasons, right-hander Ryan Madson has never thrown a pitch in the big leagues for a team other than the Phillies. That may not necessarily have to change this year, as Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com reports that there's mutual interest from the two sides in a reunion.

Madson inked a one-year, $8.5MM deal with the Reds in the 2011-12 offseason but underwent Tommy John surgery that spring and missed the entire 2012 campaign. He turned around and signed a one-year, $3.5MM contract with the Angels last winter, but setbacks in his rehab continually pushed back his expected return date and ultimately led to his release.

Now 33 years old, Madson hasn't thrown a pitch for a Major League team since Oct. 7, 2011 — Game 5 of the NLDS. Madson punched out Daniel Descalso and Nick Punto in the ninth inning of a 1-0 loss (the Cardinals had taken the lead in the first inning). It seems impossible to think that Madson hasn't toed the rubber in a Major League game since that day, but that is indeed the case.

A return to Philadelphia would mean a return to the city in which Madson broke out as one of the game's best relievers. From 2007-11, Madson posted a 2.89 ERA with 8.6 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 in 329 2/3 innings out of the Phils' bullpen, racking up 49 saves along the way, including 32 in 2011 — his lone season as the team's primary closer. Any negotiating will be handled by Damon Lapa and Scott Leventhal of All Bases Covered Sports Management, as Madson left the Boras Corporation this past October.

Madson could be looking at a minor league deal after missing the past two seasons. If he secures a Major League contract from a club, it figures to be heavily incentive-laden with a minimal guarantee — perhaps $1MM or so. He'd be a nice upside addition to a Phillies bullpen that likely still needs some help even after the acquisition of Brad Lincoln.

Within that same piece, Salisbury notes that John Mayberry Jr. remains "very much available" after being in play at the Winter Meetings. The Giants showed some interest at that time, he reports, but they've since signed Mike Morse. Salisbury believes that Mayberry was tendered a contract with the intention of trading him and notes that teams will keep an eye on him in Spring Training if he hasn't ben moved by that point.

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