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Quick Hits: Feliz, Oswalt, Dodgers

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A few items to close out this weekend..

  • Given his recent mind-changing history, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (via Twitter) suggests not reading too much into Neftali Feliz's thoughts on starting next season.  Earlier today, Feliz said that he wants to continue finishing games for the rest of his career, before backtracking later on.
  • Buster Olney of ESPN tweets that of all the players he has ever written about, he would say that Roy Oswalt is among those most likely to leave baseball whenever he felt it necessary.
  • Tom Schieffer is a good pick to oversee the Dodgers, writes Olney.  Olney writes that Schieffer is, by all accounts, a tough negotiator and someone who will make budgetary decisions and stick to them.

Stark On Rangers, DeRosa, Phillies, Papelbon

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Joey Votto is the player of the month for ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark, who hears from a scout that the Reds’ first baseman is more feared than anybody in the National League, including Albert Pujols. Here are the rest of Stark’s rumors:

  • One NL executive thinks the Mariners are so far from winning that they should be listening to offers for Felix Hernandez, who is under team control through 2014. Yesterday, Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports heard from a number of executives who expect King Felix to stay put for now.
  • An AL official says the Rangers are the most likely candidate to trade for a high-profile reliever this summer. Their bullpen has taken a number of hits, with Neftali Feliz and Darren O’Day on the DL and Alexi Ogando moving to the rotation.
  • Stark hears that the only players available now are those with “awful contracts.”
  • Despite the buzz about Mark DeRosa and the Marlins, Stark hears that the Giants and Marlins have not had serious discussions about the currently-injured utility player.
  • The Phillies will find it hard to add payroll this summer, but they’re eyeing potentially available bats.
  • Though Jonathan Papelbon will likely test the free agent market after the season, Stark gets the impression that the reliever could re-sign in Boston after all.

Quick Hits: Astros, Phillies, Bautista, Starling

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Links for Friday on the 25th anniversary of Roger Clemens' first 20 strikeout game…

  • MLB officials say Jim Crane is still on track to buy the Astros from Drayton McLane, according to Richard Justice of the Houston Chronicle. Justice argues that Crane should bring Lance Berkman, Andy Pettitte and former GM Gerry Hunsicker back to Houston if he does take over.
  • Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports argues that manager Charlie Manuel needs to be cautious with his rotation, because it’s “by far the Phillies' biggest strength.”
  • Former Blue Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi told Tom Verducci of SI.com that he liked Jose Bautista enough to trade for him, but wasn’t expecting historic production from the former utility player. “If you told me he would hit 20 home runs, I would have believed it because you could see the power,” Ricciardi said. “But no way could you see 50.”
  • D'Backs GM Kevin Towers was on hand to watch high schooler Bubba Starling play yesterday, according to ESPN.com's Keith Law (on Twitter). A two sport athlete, Starling is arguably the top high school position player in the 2011 draft.

Ryan Howard’s Extension One Year Later

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Ryan Howard's five-year, $125MM extension doesn't kick in until 2012, but it has been exactly one year since the Phillies signed their slugging first baseman long-term. A year ago this time, the reaction to GM Ruben Amaro Jr. was critical. Why, analysts asked, would the Phillies commit nine figures for Howard's age 32-36 seasons when he doesn't play a premium position and figures to be well into his decline phase by 2016, the last guaranteed year of the contract?

The Phillies had their reasons for making the deal; Howard had reached 45 homers for the fourth consecutive season in 2009, further establishing himself as one of the premier power hitters in the game. Yet Rob Neyer, Keith Law, Dave Cameron, Ken Rosenthal and others argued that Howard's power didn't necessarily justify a five-year deal worth $25MM per season.

Since finalizing the contract, Howard has hit .278/.357/.508 with 31 homers, 111 RBI, 24 doubles and 5 triples. The 31-year-old made the All-Star team in 2010 and cracked the top ten in the NL MVP balloting, though he posted a career-low slugging percentage and hit fewer home runs than usual. Though his numbers are good, they aren't what we're used to seeing from Howard and the Phillies may have been counting on more (he has just 2.4 total wins above replacement since the beginning of 2010).

Howard remains an above-average first baseman, a key player for a perennial contender that currently has the best record in the game. But he's older and less productive than Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder, the two premier position players who will hit free agency after 2011. If Howard had not signed his extension, he would have hit the open market this offseason as the third-most appealing player at his position.

His career numbers would have generated lots of interest, especially if he continues producing in 2011, and there's no doubt that he would have been in line for an impressive free agent contract. $25MM per year, however, would likely have been out of reach for Howard. We won't know for another five years whether the initial reaction to the deal was fair, but at this point it appears that the analysts were right: Howard and agent Casey Close are looking smart for signing the $125MM contract a year ago.

How Do Teams Replace Sudden Losses?

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When the Tampa Bay Rays suddenly found themselves without Manny Ramirez, it was assumed that the production fallout would be extreme. After all, who ever heard of Sam Fuld?

Now, of course, everybody has heard of Fuld and his 156 OPS+ this season. While it is unlikely to continue, Fuld provides a feel-good story that exceeds whatever goodwill the Rays would have received from a Ramirez renaissance. The Rays could still make a move to add offensive production, and I wanted to take a closer look at how teams filled unexpected non-injury losses.

The Ramirez loss brought back to mind the last time Manny's drug issues left his employer short-handed. The year was 2009. Barack Obama was President of the United States. America's television networks were overrun by reality shows. And suddenly, baseball was Manny-less for 50 games.

Stepping into Manny's shoes was Juan Pierre in left field. During Ramirez's suspension, Pierre managed a .318/.381/.411 line, solid production at the position. Overall, his 104 OPS+ was the second-highest of his career. He wasn't Manny, but he kept the Dodgers on pace for 95 wins and a division title. It was not the disaster many feared.

The stakes were very different back in 1989, when an aging Mike Schmidt unexpectedly retired on May 28th with a season line of .203/.297/.372. Hopes had been high for Schmidt to regain his Hall of Fame form after a down 1988, but 172 plate appearances in, Schmidt acknowledged that he simply wasn't the same player anymore.

With internal options Chris James and Randy Ready stretched as everyday third basemen, the Phillies made a deal three weeks later, trading Steve Bedrosian and Rick Parker to the Giants for Charlie Hayes, Terry Mulholland and Dennis Cook. Hayes provided an OPS+ of 93 as the regular third baseman, around where Schmidt was when he called it quits.

The move helped Philadelphia eventually win the National League in 1993, along with a second deal that day with the Mets to bring Lenny Dykstra into the fold. At the time, however, it was the Charlie Hayes trade, and Hayes left the Philadelphia fans disappointed, both because Schmidt was impossible to replace, and because the Phillies finished 67-95.

The fill-ins for Thurman Munson back in 1979 didn't live up to even Charlie Hayes production. Munson, who died in a plane crash in August 1979, left the Yankees with a pair of catchers: Jerry Narron and Brad Gulden. While Munson's contributions extended beyond his OPS+ of 95, Narron and Gulden couldn't approach that, Narron checking in at 44, Gulden at 23. For reference, 1979 NL Cy Young Award winner Bruce Sutter, a relief pitcher, had an OPS+ of 49. The Yankees finished at 89-71, good for fourth in a tremendous AL East.

Speaking of ex-Yankees, anyone who saw the John Goodman vehicle "The Babe" knows that Ruth hit three home runs, then retired from the Boston Braves in 1935. (Left out of the film are the five games that followed, but then my problems with that movie could fill a whole other column.) Ruth finally retired on May 30, in circumstances quite similar to Schmidt's. Ruth's .181/.359/.431 line was still good for an OPS+ of 118, down just a bit from his career mark of 206 (author's note: ZOMG), but well ahead of his replacements in left and right field. Both Hal Lee (96 OPS+) and Tommy Thompson (95 OPS+) failed to reach league-average at the position. And if you think that's bad, Hall of Famer Rabbit Maranville, a 43-year-old teammate of Ruth's on the 1935 Braves, put up an OPS+ of… 2. And he stayed for the whole season, a glorious 38-115 campaign.

So rest assured, Sam Fuld may come down from his 156 OPS+ perch. But the Rays are likely to best the 1935 Braves, no matter how badly Fuld slumps.

East Notes: Beato, Ibanez, Emaus, Hulett

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Here are some items of note and musings coming out of the East divisions as Phillies interim closer Jose Contreras hits the DL …

  • Mets reliever Pedro Beato, a Rule 5 draftee this offseason, is pitching well, writes Thomas Boorstein of MLB.com. "I've been impressed ever since he walked into camp," Mets manager Terry Collins said. Earlier this week, the Mets returned second baseman Brad Emaus – their other Rule 5 pick – to the Blue Jays, who flipped him in turn to the Rockies, but it looks like Beato has a good shot of sticking with the Mets throughout the season.
  • Phillies outfielder Raul Ibanez is struggling, as is Philly's lineup on the whole, and David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News wonders how long the Phils will continue to start Ibanez. Should the Phils choose to divvy up starts between John Mayberry Jr., Ben Francisco and Domonic Brown, it would be interesting to see whether they would look into trading the 39-year-old. Ibanez is past his prime, sure, but he posted a triple-slash of .272/.347/.552 as recently as two years ago, and his contract expires at season's end, so he could draw interest at a cheap price. However, he does have no-trade protection.
  • The Blue Jays will place second baseman Aaron Hill on the DL, writes Gregor Chisholm of MLB.com. We'll never know the answer, but I wonder whether the Jays would have held onto Emaus to fill in briefly with Hill, Jayson Nix, and Edwin Encarnacion being banged up. Of course, it seems pretty clear that the Jays had made the decision that Emaus didn't factor into their plans, but they are stretched thin now, as John McDonald and Mike McCoy started at third and second base, respectively, on Sunday.
  • The Nationals signed infielder Tug Hulett to a minor league contract, according to NBC Sports. Hulett last appeared in the big leagues with the Royals in 2009. He was with the Rockies earlier this season but was let go after Colorado acquired Emaus.

Potential Offense Targets For The Phillies

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One common question in yesterday's chat was which bats the Phillies could acquire this summer.  The Phillies rank fifth in the NL with 4.88 runs per game so far, and trading season is two months away, so it's not time to sound the alarm yet.  But here are a few potential targets anyway.

There's still no timetable for Chase Utley to return, so the Phillies could consider adding an offensive-minded second baseman.  Availability of these players will depend on the standings.  If the Phillies seek all-around offense they could try for Arizona's Kelly Johnson or San Francisco's Mark DeRosa.  Aaron Hill and Jose Lopez can provide power, while Marco Scutaro, Jeff Keppinger, and Omar Infante are more OBP-focused.

Rather than bring in a $5.85MM second baseman like Johnson, the Phillies seem more likely to add a corner outfielder.  Domonic Brown could help out in right field.  He could start a rehab assignment soon after breaking his hand in March.  The Phillies should have a good idea of whether Brown can be an offensive asset by mid-July. 

It's tough to assess the available outfielders in April, before teams reveal their true selves.  Carlos Beltran, Jason Kubel, Luke Scott, Juan Pierre, Carlos Quentin, Hunter Pence, Carlos Lee, Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp, Garrett Jones, Ryan Ludwick, Brad Hawpe, Josh Willingham, David DeJesus, Juan Rivera, Jack Cust, Jeff Francoeur, Xavier Nady, Angel Pagan, Kosuke Fukudome, and Marlon Byrd are players I can picture being dealt under certain circumstances.  Some are more likely than others – I'm not banking on Kemp being dealt.  If the Phillies aim for switch-hitters or right-handed bats, this list is cut to Beltran, Quentin, Pence, Lee, Kemp, Ludwick, Willingham, Rivera, Francoeur, Nady, Pagan, and Byrd.

There are also financial concerns.  Incumbent left fielder Raul Ibanez earns $11.5MM this year, and his is not a contract anyone is taking off the Phillies' hands.  Some of the above-named players aren't even clear upgrades over Ibanez.  We're unsure how much payroll flexibility the Phillies have, and most of the players I named are earning more than $5MM this year.  They could unload a different contract, with Joe Blanton the most popular choice.  But Blanton is only tradeable if he's pitching reasonably well, and in that case moving him downgrades the Phillies' rotation and might set them back as much as an outfield acquisition would set them forward.

It wouldn't be hard for the Phillies to add a complementary piece like Keppinger or Francoeur.  Otherwise, the best chance at an improved offense will probably come from a healthy Utley and production from Brown, Ibanez, or Jimmy Rollins.

Brian Schlitter Returned To Cubs

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The commissioner's office returned Phillies right-hander Brian Schlitter to the Cubs because of past injury, according to Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer (on Twitter). The Phillies claimed Schlitter from the Yankees in February, a month after the Yankees claimed him from the Cubs, but those claims are now void.

The Phillies placed Schlitter on the disabled list with a right flexor pronator strain at the end of Spring Training, retroactive to March 22nd. He has yet to appear in a pro game this year.

Schlitter appeared in seven games for the Cubs last year and gave up 18 hits and five walks in eight innings, striking out seven. He spent most of the season at Triple-A Iowa, where he posted a 3.15 ERA with 8.3 K/9 and 4.1 BB/9 in 45 2/3 innings in his first season at the highest level of the minors.

Quick Hits: Feliciano, Twins, Rendon, Oswalt

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 Links for Wednesday, after a walk-off win for Brandon Inge and the Tigers…

  • Yankees manager Joe Girardi says Pedro Feliciano has a "damaged shoulder" according to Ben Shpigel of the New York Times (on Twitter). It sounds like surgery is a possibility for the Yankees' $8MM investment.
  • Tsuyoshi Nishioka’s leg injury weakened the Twins' middle infield, which means they may look for infield help, rather than relievers in potential deals, according to Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. Trade candidate Kevin Slowey hasn’t pitched in a game since April 4th because of bursitis in his right shoulder, but he could become available again this season.
  • Anthony Rendon nudged out Gerrit Cole for top spot on Baseball America’s updated list of top draft eligible players.
  • The Yankees were frustrated that the Astros never made them fully aware that Roy Oswalt was available last summer, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Credit Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. for acquiring Oswalt quietly and later denying the Yankees their primary offseason target, Cliff Lee.

Offseason In Review: Philadelphia Phillies

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The Phillies are next in our Offseason In Review series.

Major League Signings

Notable Minor League Signings

Trades and Claims

Notable Losses

Summary

The Phillies pulled off the surprise of the offseason, righting a past wrong and adding Cliff Lee to an already-strong rotation.  GM Ruben Amaro Jr. stretched his payroll to accommodate Lee, so the signing sums up most of the team's offseason.  Given all of their recent success, the Phillies extended Amaro in March, just after he'd extended manager Charlie Manuel. 

The Phillies made an attempt to re-sign Werth, reportedly offering three years and $48MM plus a vesting option.  With Werth ultimately landing a seven-year, $126MM deal, the Phillies' offer appears half-hearted.  Still, plenty of people pegged Werth for something like four years and $65MM heading into the offseason, and with that in mind the player's biggest concession to the Phillies would have been accepting a fourth-year vesting option.

Lee

No one predicted the Phillies would sign Lee, and reports of a Mystery Team in the mix in December were initially scoffed at.  Technically Lee left a guaranteed $28MM on the table to sign with his preferred team, though this wasn't Andre Dawson giving the Cubs a blank check.  Lee's $24MM a year salary is higher than it would have been had he taken a seven-year offer from the Yankees or six years from the Rangers, and it's a record for pitchers. 

The Phillies checked the "bill me later" box on the Lee contract, designing it to pay him only $11MM in 2011 before his salary jumps past $20MM thereafter.  They also potentially left the biggest bill for 2016, the lefty's age 37 season.  A $27.5MM option for 2016 vests if Lee is not on the disabled list at end of 2015 season with injury to left elbow or left shoulder, and has 200 innings pitched in 2015 or 400 innings pitched in 2014-15.  If the option does not vest, the Phillies will presumably take the buyout, which at $12.5MM is the biggest I've even seen.  Hopefully those numbers won't look as scary entering the 2016 season.

Prior to the Lee deal, the Phillies re-signed Contreras to a two-year deal.  Even at his age the contract doesn't look bad now, in light of the ten eight-figure contracts given to free agent relievers later in the offseason.

The Phillies appear light at second base, right field, and the bullpen this point, though the injuries to Chase Utley, Domonic Brown, and Brad Lidge didn't happen until Spring Training.  I don't see much Amaro should have done differently during the offseason.  Adding a Jerry Hairston Jr. or Willie Bloomquist just to be safe wouldn't have made much difference.  Perhaps Amaro could've dabbled a little on the low end of the relief market, nabbing a Jon Rauch, Dan Wheeler, or Chad Qualls in the $3MM range.  I liked that Amaro held onto Joe Blanton rather than doing some kind of salary dump deal. 

Amaro put all his eggs in the Cliff Lee basket this offseason, and it's hard to find fault with that.  The Phillies' rotation appears historically good.  It's possible all the big salaries will limit flexibility this year and in the near future, though Amaro always seems to find a few million bucks in the couch cushions when needed.

Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.

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