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Aaron Rowand

Latest Phillies Rumors: Lowell, Rivera, Schilling

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Let’s catch up on the rumors and minor moves involving the Phillies recently.

One offseason objective is, of course, third base.  Abraham Nunez was an easy buyout decision; Pat Gillick will import a new third baseman this winter one way or another.  Phils fans can stop dreaming up A-Rod scenarios; Gillick won’t pursue him.  Mike Lowell is the one free agent 3B on the Phils’ radar.  While Lowell wouldn’t mind playing in Philly, he made it clear yesterday that Boston remains his first choice.  So there’s a good chance Gillick will have to get his man via trade.  Scott Lauber names Garrett Atkins and Joe Crede (free agent after ’08, Boras client) as possible targets.  We all know how Gillick loves dealing with Kenny Williams (and the Sox can use Josh Fields at third base).

Rod Barajas won’t be retained; Chris Coste will serve as the backup to Carlos Ruiz.  A nice, cheap catching tandem.

How about pitching?  Randy Miller has a source saying the Phils are targeting a couple of AL East stalwarts – Curt Schilling and Mariano Rivera.  To sign Rivera at $12MM per and use Brett Myers in setup seems like a misallocation of resources to me.  As for Schilling, Miller says he’s expressed interest in coming back to Philly to finish his career.  I like the fit.

Miller also has some very interesting info on Aaron Rowand – he’s looking for a six-year, $84MM contract!  Does that mean he ends up with a five-year, $60MM deal?  Pretty hefty for a guy coming off a career year.  Miller says the Phils won’t go for big-name replacements like Andruw Jones or Torii Hunter.

Finally, Pat Burrell has surfaced as a solid trading chip.  He’s left with a reasonable one-year, $14MM commitment, albeit with a full-no trade clause that would require more compensation.  How about Burrell to the White Sox for Crede?  Phils kick in a couple mil, the White Sox get much-needed OBP for ’08 plus draft picks when Burrell leaves.

Heyman’s Latest

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SI.com’s Jon Heyman has a new column up, with some minor info.

  • Heyman’s sources describe a Jose Reyes for Johan Santana rumor as "pure fantasy."  Well…who said it was ever anything more?  Buster Olney was clearly just playing Let’s Make A Deal when he devised it.  Things get twisted around easily.
  • Most of us already figured this, but Heyman says the White Sox will go after either Aaron Rowand or Torii Hunter this winter. 
  • Heyman puts the Angels, Dodgers, Red Sox, Giants, Cubs, Mets, and Phillies into the A-Rod derby if the Yanks don’t keep him.
  • No offense to Jon but this column really lacked any kind of new info.

Phillies Have $20MM To Burn

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The Philadelphia Inquirer’s Todd Zolecki tallied up the Phillies’ commitments and determined that they have roughly $20MM free to spend on pitching, third base, and perhaps Aaron Rowand.  Zolecki feels that the Phils would choose to let Rowand walk if they couldn’t fit it all in the budget.

Zolecki mentions Mike Lowell as a possibility for the hot corner; that’d run $8-12MM for ’08 depending on how you backload it.  Lowell seems in line for at least two years, $22MM.  Gordon Edes has speculated that it could require a three or four year commitment.  The Phillies at least fall under the teams on Lowell’s list, it appears.

The other $10MM or so might all have to go toward a starting pitcher.  The Phillies have Jamie Moyer, Adam Eaton, Cole Hamels, and Kyle Kendrick locked in.  If the Phils don’t like the free agent market (they had interest in reacquiring Carlos Silva this summer), they could pursue Jon Garland or Dontrelle Willis via trade.  The Phils have also scouted Anthony Reyes.

That doesn’t leave any money for Andruw Jones, despite recent speculation.

Crazy Cubs Speculation

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My apologies in advance for those who think this site is a little too Cubs-centric.  The Needs and Luxuries post was my fault, but it’s only natural for all of the local writers to speculate on ways to improve the club for 2008.

I know some of the Cubs fans who frequent MLBTR take some abuse for off-the-wall speculation.  Jacque Jones for someone of value, for example.  But honestly, the published newspaper speculation isn’t any better.

  • Barry Rozner takes his knee-jerk shots at Aramis Ramirez, who was awful in the three-game set against Arizona.  According to Rozner, A-Rod is a "better guy, better fielder, and better hitter."  That’s why the newly signed Ramirez should be dealt to make room for him.
  • Jeff Vorva wants to sign A-Rod for shortstop, move Theriot to second base, move Mark DeRosa to right field, and sign Torii Hunter for center field.  That’s message-board type stuff.  And I say again, Theriot’s not a starter.
  • Paul Sullivan wants to trade Jason Marquis.  Sure, that would be nice.  But come on – the Cubs got exactly what everyone expected in Marquis’ first year, maybe even a little better.  If Marquis is over 5.00 for the next two years, that should come as no surprise.  Sullivan would also like to sign Aaron Rowand off a career year, blocking the Cubs’ best prospect for around $55-60MM.
  • Gordon Wittenmyer wants Ryan Theriot leading off, though he was one of the few regular Cubs with an OBP worse than Soriano.  Wittenmyer expects the Cubs to cut Mark Prior loose rather than gamble $3MM on him.         
  • Phil Rogers notes Kerry Wood’s resurgence as a reliever.  If the Cubs want to keep him, it’ll cost more than a million or two this time.

Should Mets Pursue Rowand, Eckstein?

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When I first saw the subheading of Joel Sherman’s most recent column – "Mets Would Get Much-Needed Jolt From Rowand And Eckstein" – I had the knee-jerk stathead reaction.  That is: Eckstein’s overrated, Rowand’s coming off a career year, and the grinder element either doesn’t exist or doesn’t add wins.

But Sherman doesn’t seem blind to the numbers and his plan to move Carlos Beltran to right field and use Eckstein at second base seems reasonable.  Who am I to say that adding two guys who play with such enthusiasm wouldn’t have an intangible effect?  Sometimes the pendulum swings too far the other way with stats people (I am guilty of this).  Rowand and Eckstein are above average players, even if their attitudes earn them too much media extra credit.  There are immeasurable but valuable traits in baseball.

Rowand might end up costing $60MM over five years at the high end.  Eckstein, $10MM over two years.  Should the Mets make this investment?  Sherman’s plan also calls for using Lastings Milledge/Carlos Gomez/Fernando Martinez to acquire a workhorse arm like Jon Garland, Nate Robertson, Joe Blanton, Bronson Arroyo, or Dontrelle Willis.  Thoughts on that? 

Meanwhile, John Delcos of The Journal News wants Glavine, Lo Duca, Castillo, Easley, and Alou back plus trades for Adam Dunn and Chad Cordero.

Rowand For 5/50?

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Buster Olney believes that Aaron Rowand will be the most popular free agent center fielder this winter, more so than Andruw Jones or Torii Hunter.  Rowand will be more affordable at $10-12MM annually over five years.  Beyond his above average offense and defense, he brings an intangible bonus as a good clubhouse guy.  The 30 year-old hit .309/.374/.515 in 612 ABs this year.  He set career bests in games played (161) and OBP.

Olney’s list of teams that may pursue a center fielder this winter: the Cubs, White Sox, Padres, Cardinals, Braves, Rangers, Nationals, Mariners, Pirates, and Mets.  Rowand plans on testing the market, so the Phillies won’t get any kind of discount if they retain him. 

To me, a free agent CF doesn’t really fit for the Cards or Mariners.  As for the Mets, they should probably just exercise Moises Alou’s option and have a good fourth outfielder on hand.

White Sox Targeting Eckstein

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According to Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun-Times, shortstop David Eckstein is the #1 target of the White Sox this offseason.  An Eckstein signing would then result in the team paying $300K to buy out Juan Uribe’s $5MM option for ’08. 

Eckstein signed a three-year, $10.25MM deal with the Cardinals after being non-tendered by the Angels in December of 2004.  He’ll be 33 heading into the ’08 season, and injuries have been increasing over the years.  Another three-year pact for $15-18MM would be fairly risky for the White Sox.  Especially for a player whose value is tied so closely to his batting average.

A coworker of mine, Mike, mentioned that the Sox might be trying to assemble an all-grinder type team.  They could conceivably have Eckstein, Darin Erstad, Jerry Owens, and Aaron Rowand in the lineup next year.

However, they won’t be signing Rowand if, as Cowley claims, he demands a contract similar to Torii Hunter’s.  Ken Rosenthal recently talked to an exec who set the floor for Hunter at 5/75, with 6/102 certainly within reach.  I imagine the White Sox will top out with an offer around 3/33, a little more than Eric Byrnes received.  I could be wrong though.   

Rowand Linked To Nationals?

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This is a tenuous connection, but I’ll take what I can get.  MLB.com’s Bill Ladson notes that Aaron Rowand seems intrigued by the Nationals’ bright future and center field opening.  It’s possible the Nats could be in the mix for Rowand this winter.  It could just be a respectability type signing, which I think is what they were trying to accomplish with Dmitri Young and Ron Belliard.

When the White Sox were last in Philadelphia, speculation ran rampant that Rowand could come back to Chicago.  He admitted to having a soft spot for the team he came up with.  If the Sox are serious about improving center field in ’08, the main candidates seem to be Rowand, Torii Hunter, and Mike Cameron.

Keep in mind that the Phillies could definitely re-sign Rowand.  He’s a fan favorite and would be a solid sign at the Eric Byrnes price (three years, $30MM).  However, there have been no extension talks yet. 

Will Rowand Return To White Sox?

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Center fielder Aaron Rowand has achieved some sort of cult status in Chicago, with many Sox fans convinced that he has the mojo or special something that the team has been lacking.  With the White Sox in Philadelphia this week, five articles were produced this morning surrounding a few comments Rowand made about returning to Chicago.

He admitted that he has a "soft spot" for the Sox, all things being equal.  I assume that means the White Sox matching the best contract offer Rowand receives on the free agent market this winter.  While Rowand was almost traded back to the White Sox a couple of times this year, Scot Gregor thinks free agency is the more likely path.  Meanwhile Sam Donnellon tosses out a Rowand for Mark Buehrle proposal.

Rowand considers himself a possible "leftover" in a sea of free agent center fielders.  He’s just being modest.  Aside from Corey Patterson, who’s having an awful year, and Milton Bradley, who’s been on the DL three times this season, Rowand is the youngest available CF.  He’s more affordable than the Big Three (or Four if you include Mike Cameron) and younger too.  He’s a better defender than Eric Byrnes.  And he’s in the midst of a career year.  If Rowand can stay healthy he may be looking at a Gary Matthews Jr. deal.

I am a little bummed that Rowand is not drawing walks like he was in the first two months of the season.  He seems to have reverted to his old ways in June.

Kenny Williams Loves Aaron Rowand

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Several years ago, Billy Beane described Erubiel Durazo as his "Holy Grail".  Beane had been in pursuit of the young slugger, coveting his plate discipline and projecting him as a middle-of-the-order type for the A’s lineup.

At this point, White Sox general manager Kenny Williams’ pursuit of Aaron Rowand is beginning to reach similar status.  From Phil Rodgers in the Chicago Tribune:

If the Phillies are willing to try to get Mike MacDougal straightened out, the reliever could be a centerpiece in a White Sox deal for Aaron Rowand. The Phillies desperately need bullpen help and are letting teams know Rowand could be available in the right deal. The speedy Michael Bourn seems ready to move into a regular role in Philadelphia’s outfield.

The outfield is one of the few places the Phillies actually have some depth/interchangeable parts, and with Aaron Rowand’s average hovering around .325 for most of the season so far, the Phillies may be thinking it’s time to "sell high" on the centerfielder.

However, it isn’t Michael Bourn who would take over in center, more likely Shane Victorino would shift to centerfield while Greg Dobbs and Jayson Werth would probably platoon in rightfield.  Bourn shows promise but right now, he is still too raw for anything more than Pat Burrell’s caddy for late-inning defensive/pinch-running and the occasional start.  Really, he would be better off playing in AAA everyday and honing his skills on a regular basis.

Having said that, it will probably take a little more than Mike MacDougal to get things done in a deal like this.  A slumping middle-reliever for a streaking everyday player isn’t very even.

Tom Goyne is the author of Balls, Sticks, & Stuff, a Phillies-centric site, and maintains the Phloggers’ Pheeds page, a source for the latest commentary from around the "phlogosphere". Recently, he teamed up with his brother to launch Roto Front Office.

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