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Adam Dunn

Rosenthal’s Latest: Crede, Lofton, Millwood, Dunn

By Tim Dierkes | April 27, 2008 at 12:41am CDT

Ken Rosenthal has a new Full Count video up; let’s discuss.

  • Despite his .268/.330/.537 start, the White Sox would still entertain trading Joe Crede if it’d help the big league team.  This is a change from their apparent springtime willingness to deal him for prospects.  The most likely desire would be pitching, if the Sox can find a suitor.
  • Jake Peavy put on his GM hat, suggesting the Padres sign Kenny Lofton.  Rosenthal likes the idea, but notes that Kevin Towers will first turn to his farm system.  I discussed some future trade candidates for San Diego in my latest video mailbag.
  • Rosenthal suggests Kevin Millwood’s contract will be an obstacle in trading him.  He earns $8.5MM this year, $11MM in ’09, and a fairly achievable $12MM vesting option for ’10.  Plus there’s a limited no-trade clause.
  • Walt Jocketty’s biggest test this year might be deciding whether to trade Ken Griffey Jr. and/or Adam Dunn.  They both have no-trade clauses to deal with; even after June 15th Dunn’s includes most high-revenue teams.
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Chicago White Sox Cincinnati Reds San Diego Padres Texas Rangers Adam Dunn Jake Peavy Joe Crede Ken Griffey Jr. Kenny Lofton Kevin Millwood Walt Jocketty

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Free Agent Stock Watch: Adam Dunn

By Coley Ward 2 | April 21, 2008 at 8:17am CDT

Adam Dunn will be a free agent after this season. So it’s a safe bet that Dunn is going to have a career year and will cash in this winter, right? Not so fast.

Dunn, who has hit exactly 40 home runs in each of the past three seasons, has only two so far. But that’s not what makes Dunn’s 2008 start so interesting.

This season, Dunn’s OBP is a robust .418, but his batting average is an anemic .191. How do we account for this dichotomy? Quite simply, Dunn has walked more than usual. So far, he’s walked 19 times in 47 at bats. He’s on pace to walk 211 times, assuming he gets as many at bats as last season (522).

Amazingly, that wouldn’t break the record for most walks in a season, which was set by Barry Bonds in 2004. But it would still be a remarkable feat, especially considering 120 of Bonds’ walks were intentional, and Dunn has yet to be intentionally walked this month.

Of course, we’re getting ahead of ourselves. This is a very small sample size we’re talking about. More than likely, Dunn’s walk rate will taper off.

But what if Dunn keeps walking at this rate? Here’s how The Hardball Times describes Bill James’ theory that an increased walk rate signals decreased hitting, via Fox Sports:

In his 1986 Baseball Abstract, Bill James postulated that when a player experienced a sudden spike in walk rate one year, it would often be followed by a substantial drop in batting average the following year. According to James, taking a base on balls is a "veteran player skill" because it involves an older ballplayer compensating for slower reflexes and bat speed. But, James reasoned, the increase in walks will result in a decrease in batting average because the pitchers will adjust and will begin to make the hitters hit good pitches.

Could Dunn be nearing the twilight of his career? He seems a little young to be winding down already. On the other hand, Andruw Jones’ batting average fell off a cliff when he turned 29, and Dunn turns 29 in November. So never say never.

If Dunn keeps on walking, how will it affect his contract negotiations? Your guess is as good as mine. But count on Dunn making at least as much as Pat Burrell, who is also a below average outfielder with high OBP and 30 HR power. Tim recently speculated that Burrell should land a contract in the neighborhood of $60 million over four years. Both Burrell and Dunn could benefit from a move to the AL, where they could DH.

Coley Ward writes for Umpbump.com. You can reach him here.

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Cincinnati Reds Free Agent Stock Watch Adam Dunn

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Burrell Enters Contract Year

By Tim Dierkes | February 19, 2008 at 9:00am CDT

All sorts of players are entering contract years, and it’s become a popular Spring Training topic.  Pat Burrell mentioned over a month ago that he’d love to re-sign with the Phillies.  Todd Zolecki chronicles Burrell’s trials and tribulations over nine years playing for the Phils.  He’s set to earn $14MM this year, finishing up the extension Ed Wade engineered.

Other major power threats in Burrell’s free agent class: Mark Teixeira, Adam Dunn, and perhaps Manny Ramirez.  Dunn, by the way, hasn’t had any extension talks with the Reds.

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Cincinnati Reds Philadelphia Phillies Adam Dunn Pat Burrell

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Burrell Enters Contract Year

By Tim Dierkes | February 19, 2008 at 8:49am CDT

All sorts of players are entering contract years, and it’s become a popular Spring Training topic.  Pat Burrell mentioned over a month ago that he’d love to re-sign with the Phillies.  Todd Zolecki chronicles Burrell’s trials and tribulations over nine years playing for the Phils.  He’s set to earn $14MM this year, finishing up the extension Ed Wade engineered.

Other major power threats in Burrell’s free agent class: Mark Teixeira, Adam Dunn, and perhaps Manny Ramirez.  Dunn, by the way, hasn’t had any extension talks with the Reds.

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Cincinnati Reds Philadelphia Phillies Adam Dunn Pat Burrell

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Rios For Franklin Gutierrez and Cliff Lee?

By Tim Dierkes | December 4, 2007 at 10:03am CDT

UPDATE, 12-4-07 at 10:03am: Per Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun: no match for the Indians and Jays on Rios.  I knew Gutierrez/Lee didn’t sound right.

FROM 12-4-07 at 9:46am:

Joel Sherman has a new column up with some fresh rumors.

  • The Indians and Blue Jays are reportedly talking about a swap that would send Alex Rios to the Tribe for Franklin Gutierrez and Cliff Lee.  Seriously?  That seems like a lousy deal for the Jays.  How long until a debunking on this one?
  • The Jake Peavy signing is a cause for optimism as the Indians seek to re-sign C.C. Sabathia.
  • As you know, the Cubs are all about getting a left-handed hitting right fielder, and Kosuke Fukudome is the best available.  Adam Dunn was also on their radar (in right field??) but those talks died.  Sherman says if the Cubs don’t get Fukudome they could move on to Johnny Damon (in right field??).

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Chicago Cubs Cincinnati Reds Cleveland Guardians New York Yankees Toronto Blue Jays Adam Dunn Alex Rios Cliff Lee Franklin Gutierrez Johnny Damon Kosuke Fukudome

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Rangers Rumors: Dunn, Hamilton, Kemp

By Tim Dierkes | November 28, 2007 at 3:30pm CDT

MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan has some interesting hot stove banter surrounding the Rangers.

  • A three-year deal for Kosuke Fukudome or a two-year pact for Mike Cameron might be the most sensible options to fill the Rangers’ center field void.  Aaron Rowand is probably too expensive.
  • While the Rangers have a touch of interest in Adam Dunn and Coco Crisp, they prefer the idea of acquiring a young bat.  Names they like: Fernando Martinez, Carlos Gomez, Carlos Gonzalez, and Matt Kemp.  Sullivan notes that the Rangers have talked to the Reds about Josh Hamilton.
  • If the Rangers sign starting pitching it’s likely to be of the injury comeback variety – Bartolo Colon, Freddy Garcia, Jason Jennings.
  • Eric Gagne is still under consideration to be signed for their vacant closer role.

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Arizona Diamondbacks Boston Red Sox Cincinnati Reds Los Angeles Dodgers New York Mets Texas Rangers Adam Dunn Bartolo Colon Carlos Gomez Carlos Gonzalez Coco Crisp Eric Gagne Fernando Martinez Freddy Garcia Jason Jennings Josh Hamilton Kosuke Fukudome Matt Kemp Mike Cameron

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Reds Pick Up Dunn’s $13MM Option

By Tim Dierkes | October 31, 2007 at 5:27pm CDT

ESPN reports the Reds have exercised Adam Dunn’s $13MM club option.  This is expected and activates a full no-trade clause for Dunn through June 15th.  As Tim noted here, he’ll then have the option to choose 10 clubs to which he can be traded.

MLBTR readers were more or less unanimously in favor of Dunn’s return.  40 homers at $13MM seems a no-brainer to me.  He’s a patient hitter and the Reds’ most potent bat.  At that price, if the Reds do intend to deal him they will find ample value.  But don’t forget that Reds CEO Bob Castellini told the Cincinnati Enquirer that the possibility for an extension exists.

The Reds were feeling decisive today and also brought back Scott Hatteberg ($1.84 million option) and Javier Valentin ($1.35 million option) while declining Eddie Guardado’s option.  Both options exercised make sense for the Reds at those bargain basement prices.

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Cincinnati Reds Adam Dunn Eddie Guardado Javier Valentin Scott Hatteberg

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Dunn, Hatteberg Option Decisions Due Sunday

By Tim Dierkes | October 30, 2007 at 4:04pm CDT

According to John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer, the Reds have to make decisions on the options for Adam Dunn, Scott Hatteberg, Eddie Guardado, and Javier Valentin by November 4th.

  • Dunn is the big one; his is for $13MM with a $0.5MM buyout.  This is an easy decision to exercise, though it will cause full no-trade protection to kick in until June 15th.  After that he gets to choose 10 clubs to which he would accept a trade.  But I think that if the Reds want him out of town the two parties will find a way to make it work (ie, they’ll give him a million or two extra).
  • Hatteberg’s option is for $1.85MM with a $0.15MM buyout.  This is so cheap it’s hard to decline, even if Joey Votto is ready.  The Reds could definitely exercise it and trade Hatteberg at their discretion.  The market for first basemen is weak.
  • Everyday Eddie has a $3MM club option with no apparent buyout.  He didn’t show anything, so I’m guessing the Reds will pass.
  • Valentin’s option is for $1.35MM with a $75K buyout.  I imagine they’ll exercise it.
  • Since we are talking about options, I should add that Moises Alou’s is due on November 15th.  His is for $7.5MM vs. a $1MM buyout.
  • Additionally in that same Fay article, Baker denies any tampering with Kerry Wood or Mark Prior.  They didn’t talk about coming to the Reds, and Baker has spoken to over 40 players since he was hired.

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Cincinnati Reds New York Mets Adam Dunn Eddie Guardado Javier Valentin Kerry Wood Mark Prior Moises Alou Scott Hatteberg

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How About Bonds To The Reds?

By Tim Dierkes | October 23, 2007 at 12:43pm CDT

Here’s one we haven’t considered: could Barry Bonds join the Reds?  Home Run Derby discusses the Dusty Baker connection, while Sabernomics believes the Reds hired Dusty partially to show free agents they’re serious.  Sabernomics believes the Reds could even make a run at Alex Rodriguez.  (Hat tip to Bleed Cubbie Blue on both links).

Bonds would be a welcome addition to any offense.  But he only fits in with an NL team in left field.  Adam Dunn resides there currently for Cincy, playing some of the worst LF defense in the game.  So the loss on defense would be minimal.  Dunn could then be moved to first base or sent packing.  The latter option makes the most sense, since Joey Votto is ready and Scott Hatteberg is under contract. 

The possible problem is that exercising Dunn’s option for 2008 gives him full no-trade protection until June 15th.  Last we heard, the Reds are likely to go for it.  A Dunn-for-Bonds exchange only makes sense if the Reds score a good young pitcher for Dunn.  Anyone have any reasonable trade scenarios involving Dunn?

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Cincinnati Reds Adam Dunn Barry Bonds

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Dunn’s Option Likely To Be Exercised

By Tim Dierkes | October 15, 2007 at 1:00pm CDT

The Cincinnati Enquirer’s John Fay reports that the Reds are likely to exercise Adam Dunn’s $13MM option for 2008, based on comments from club CEO Bob Castellini.  What’s more, an extension is not out of the question.  Last we’d heard, it was "hard to see" the Reds picking up the option.

Back in August, the Enquirer noted that the Reds would either pick up the option and trade Dunn or just not exercise it.  Dunn, however, gets full no-trade protection until June 15th if the Reds exercise his option.  He might have to be convinced to approve a deal this winter.

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Cincinnati Reds Adam Dunn

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