Alan Roden

The Blue Jays could get Max Scherzer back as soon as next week, writes Keegan Matheson of MLB.com. The future Hall of Famer tossed 74 pitches and punched out eight hitters — including a rehabbing Wilyer Abreu — in a rehab start against the Red Sox’ Triple-A affiliate this week. The Jays will need to see how Scherzer’s ailing thumb responds, but he’s built up and feels his stuff is where it needs to be. If Saturday’s scheduled bullpen session between starts goes well, Scherzer could return to the Jays next Tuesday.

A healthy Scherzer would be a welcome boon at an opportune time. Toronto recently lost Bowden Francis to the injured list. Kevin Gausman has allowed 17 runs over his past 20 innings. Chris Bassitt has allowed at least three runs in four of his past five starts, pitching to a 5.59 ERA in that span.

Scherzer, 40, lasted only three innings in his Jays debut early this season and pitched only 43 1/3 innings with Texas in 2024. There are genuine concerns about his health, both in terms of his thumb being able to hold up over the course of a full big league start and in terms of how it’ll recover between outings when he’s taking the ball every fifth day. At least with regard to his two rehab starts — 56 pitches and 74 pitches — he’s been holding up well enough during those games themselves. It might be a bit before the Jays let him unleash 100 pitches, but even if his pitch count is closely monitored, Scherzer should stabilize a rotation that’s cycled through a hodgepodge of fifth starter options this year.

The occupant of that fifth and final spot in the rotation, even with Scherzer back in the fold, is up in the air. Lefty Eric Lauer, who signed a minor league deal over the winter, has been excellent pitching in a variety of roles. Matheson notes that Lauer is angling for that fifth spot, quoting the lefty as follows: “I’m a starter and I want to be a starter. The fifth spot is kind of up in the air. I go out there and try to take that fifth spot every time.”

Lauer has indeed made a strong case. He’s pitched in 10 games for Toronto, four of them starts, and picked up 35 1/3 innings with a 2.29 earned run average. He’s fanned 26.1% of his opponents against an 8% walk rate. His ability to sustain that strikeout rate is a bit questionable, given below-average swinging-strike and chase rates of 9.8% and 24.6%, respectively, but this is far and away Lauer’s best work since his 2021-22 peak with the Brewers.

That said, another low-cost pickup has made a similarly strong case. Right-hander Spencer Turnbull, signed to a deal after the season was underway, has pitched 4 1/3 innings and held opponents to one run. He’s allowed seven hits, walked two and only fanned a pair, but Turnbull can add to his case when he starts tonight’s game against the White Sox.

Mitch Bannon of The Athletic adds that manager John Schneider called the fifth starter’s spot a “healthy competition” between Lauer and Turnbull. For now, both are in the picture. If there are any setbacks with Scherzer, perhaps that’ll remain the case. But if Scherzer returns next week, the Jays will have more healthy rotation arms than spots available — hardly a bad thing. If they get to that enviable spot, the Blue Jays could consider a variety of options. Turnbull could serve as a piggyback option behind either Lauer or Scherzer. They could go with a six-man rotation. They could alternate Turnbull/Lauer in that fifth spot depending on their opponent.

Further down the road, Toronto is hopeful that 2024 first-rounder Trey Yesavage can push to join the starting staff. That’s not likely in 2025, as he was only just promoted to Double-A and has already thrown nearly two-thirds as many innings this year as he did in his junior season at East Carolina University. However, Bannon writes in a separate piece that the hard-throwing Yesavage could emerge as a candidate to join the major league club down the stretch if the Jays are in contention — perhaps in the bullpen.

Schneider tells Bannon that Yesavage “has definitely opened some eyes here” and that “the stuff is real.” Blue Jays scout Coulson Barbiche adds that even when he was watching Yesavage pitch in college, he seemed “darn near ready-made” for the major leagues.

The 6’4″, 225-pound Yesavage has breezed through minor league lineups in his first full pro season, logging a 2.67 ERA with a mammoth 42.5% strikeout rate and an almost comical 21.1% swinging-strike rate. His 11.5% walk rate needs to come down, but Yesavage is already at his third minor league level of the season. The Jays may not have been all that aggressive with his original assignment to Low-A, but they’re promoting him aggressively now; Yesavage spent only four starts in High-A before being bumped to Double-A, where he’s now made two starts.

Good questions on the pitching side of the roster are circulating at the moment, but there’s also some uncertainty with the team’s mix of position players — specifically in the outfield. The Jays have Daulton Varsho and Anthony Santander on the injured list at the moment, but there’s still a surplus of outfield talent on the roster — particularly with Nathan Lukes returning from the concussion list today.

Shi Davidi of Sportsnet looks at what could be a looming logjam. Varsho is one of the game’s premier defenders and will man center field once healthy. Santander and George Springer will share one corner spot and the DH spot. Addison Barger is in the midst of a breakout and has logged plenty of time in right field, but he can play third base regularly once the rest of the group is healthy. Prospects Alan Roden and Jonatan Clase are also in the mix, as are Lukes, Will Robertson, Myles Straw and Davis Schneider.

It’s highly doubtful the Jays would move one of the more established veterans or Barger, given how well he’s hitting, but Davidi wonders whether the Blue Jays might be deep enough in outfielders to deal from that hefty supply as they look to improve for the stretch run.