Trey Yesavage

The Blue Jays’ early signings of Dylan Cease and KBO returnee Cody Ponce have deepened a rotation that already included Trey Yesavage, Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber and Jose Berrios. Lefty Eric Lauer and righty Yariel Rodriguez give Toronto a pair of quality swing options, too, and the Jays still have Bowden Francis and former top prospect Ricky Tiedemann (who should be recovered from 2024 Tommy John surgery) in the upper minors as well.

The magnitude of Ponce’s three-year, $30MM contract presumably puts him squarely into the rotation. Barring a move to a six-man rotation or a spring injury, Toronto will have more starters than rotation places available. Injuries can turn a “surplus” into a deficiency pretty quickly, particularly when it comes to pitchers, but the Jays are willing to trade Berrios, Mitch Bannon of The Athletic reports.

It’s easy to frame this as the Jays adding enough depth that they’re now willing to deal Berrios. That’d be the charitable (to Berrios) way of shaping things. The other and perhaps more likely angle is simply that Toronto wasn’t enamored with Berrios continuing as its fourth starter and has acted decisively with a pair of additions pushing the veteran righty down the depth chart.

Berrios, 32 next May, has been an iron man for the Jays and Twins throughout his big league tenure. He’s started at least 30 games every year since 2018, with the exception of the shortened 2020 season, when he started a full slate of 12 games. No pitcher has started more games (234) or totaled more innings (1367 1/3) than Berrios in that span of eight years.

Along the way, Berrios has generally been an above-average starter. He’s logged a 3.94 ERA, set down 22.6% of his opponents on strikes and only walked 6.8% of the batters he’s faced. Few starters have been this reliable for this long.

Be that as it may, Berrios’ more recent seasons have seen him trend in the wrong direction. After punching out 23.7% of his opponents from 2018-23, he’s dropped to 19.6% over the past two seasons. Add in a 19.8% strikeout rate in 2022, and Berrios has now been under 20% in that regard in three of the past four years. League average in that time has been about 22.5%. Berrios has spent much of his career working with plus command, but this past season’s 8% walk rate — while still slightly better than the 8.4% league average — was up considerably from the 6.3% mark he posted across four prior seasons.

The worrying trends don’t stop there. Berrios’ 93 mph average four-seamer in 2025 was the lowest of his career, while the 92.2 mph average on his sinker was his second-lowest (leading only the 92.1 mph he averaged back in 2019). He also surrendered the highest average exit velocity (90.3 mph) and barrel rate (11.3%) of his career. His opponents’ 42.5% hard-hit rate was the second-highest mark in his MLB run. Berrios has only yielded a hard-hit rate north of 40% in three of his 10 major league seasons. All three have come within the past four years. Unsurprisingly, given the dips in velocity, command and whiffs, Berrios has become more homer-prone; after surrendering an average of 1.17 homers per nine frames from 2017-23, he’s up to 1.43 since Opening Day 2024.

None of this necessarily makes Berrios a bad pitcher. He’s an ultra-durable source of reliable, if unspectacular innings. However, coming off a down season that ended with what was incredibly the first IL stint of his big league career (elbow inflammation), would Berrios match the remaining three years and $66MM on his contract? He’d be hard-pressed to do so — certainly once factoring in the opt-out provision he has following the 2026 campaign and the escalators that could push his remaining guarantee from $66MM to $70MM.

Currently, Berrios is guaranteed $24MM in both 2027 and 2028. Both figures would rise by $1MM if the right-hander pitches a combined 300 innings in 2025-26 and another $1MM if he gets to a combined 350 innings. With 166 frames under his belt in 2025, he’d only need 134 innings in 2026 to secure an additional $2MM and a tougher but plausible 184 innings to tack on yet another $1MM per season. Given his durability, it’s likely that Berrios will at least be promised at least $50MM over two seasons when weighing his opt-out opportunity next winter — and possibly two years and $52MM.

All of that coalesces to make Berrios a difficult player to trade. He’ll pitch next year at 32, so it’s hardly out of the question that he rediscovers some of his waning ability to miss bats and/or limit walks and boosts his profile a bit. In that instance, however, Berrios might very well opt out of the two years left on his contract beyond the 2026 season. On the other hand, if the veteran righty continues to see his strikeouts dip and/or see his walks creep further north, he could be more of an innings-eating fifth starter who’s trending down and owed $24-26MM in both his age-33 and age-34 campaigns.

Essentially, any team trading for Berrios would probably do so with the hope that he’d rebound closer to his 2021-23 form — at which point he’d likely opt out. But to acquire him, they’d also have to take on the downside of Berrios maintaining his recent status quo or even slipping further, thus making that $48-52MM owed to him in 2027-28 wholly unappealing.

It’d be a surprise if the Jays were to find an interested team that was willing to both take on the entirety of Berrios’ remaining contract (to say nothing of doing so and surrendering young talent). In all likelihood, the Jays would need to include at least some cash or take back another contract of some note at a different position. That said, starting pitching is always in demand, and there are always teams looking for creative ways to swap weighty contracts that might better fit their current roster or payroll objectives.

One other fascinating wrinkle to consider: Berrios ended the 2025 season with 9.044 years of major league service time. That places him 128 days shy of 10 years. With MLB Opening Day set for March 25 and the trade deadline set to fall on Friday, July 31, Berrios would reach 10 years of service the day before next summer’s deadline. At that point, he’d acquire 10-and-5 rights — 10 years of MLB service, including the past five with the same team — thereby granting him full veto power over any trade scenarios. Currently, Berrios can block trades to a slate of eight teams.

Toronto can still carry Berrios into the 2026 season and enjoy the depth he provides. In all likelihood, injuries are going to thin out the top end of the current rotation options. That’s just reality for any big league club in today’s game. But the Jays have viable rotation alternatives, and the looming realization of Berrios’ 10-and-5 rights mean that trading him next winter will be even more complicated if he chooses to forgo his opt-out. There’d also be quite a bit of pressure to try to push a deal across the finish line in late July in the event that the Jays are intent on dealing him this summer.

It’s a complicated scenario, to say the least. Berrios’ contract is underwater but not an albatross. He’s a durable source of steady innings but no longer a borderline All-Star. The Jays can try to trade him this winter or during the season, but they’ll have not only the “clock” of the trade deadline but also the artificial clock of Berrios’ forthcoming full no-trade rights. Moving Berrios now would free up some more space for a run at re-signing Bo Bichette or trying to lure Kyle Tucker to Toronto, though the Jays would probably need to take on some other costs in order to get a deal done. It all makes for a fascinating thread to follow ahead of next week’s Winter Meetings, where convoluted trade packages and high-profile changes of scenery are the norm.