Mariners Could Deal From Rotation, Open To Offers On Paul Sewald
There’s been ample speculation surrounding the Mariners’ excellent young rotation since it was reported that the Cardinals had interest in 26-year-old righty Logan Gilbert. And while a trade involving one of Seattle’s talented arms could be a long shot due to the lofty asking price associated with all controllable young starters, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the M’s would at least consider dealing from their stock in order to acquire a young hitter with several years of control remaining.
Seattle’s rotation features veteran ace Luis Castillo and a quartet of touted young righties: Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo. Gilbert and Kirby have largely established themselves as quality big league arms, while Miller and Woo have impressed during their rookie efforts.
Gilbert, sporting a 3.88 ERA, 24.4% strikeout rate and 4.4% walk rate in 20 starts, is controllable for four more years beyond the current season. Kirby (3.49 ERA, 22.6% strikeout rate, 2.4% walk rate) has an additional five seasons of control remaining. Miller (3.96 ERA, 23.9% strikeout rate, 5.1% walk rate in 75 innings) and Woo (4.91 ERA but a 28.9% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate in 44 innings) would each come with six seasons of control beyond the current year. Both Miller and Woo were ranked among the sport’s top 100 prospects at the time of their respective promotions.
The price to acquire any of those arms would surely be steep; not only would the Mariners be seeking a controllable bat to plug into the lineup — they’d likely be seeking a high-end, all-around contributor. Reds fans have regularly asked in MLBTR chats about the possibility of shipping Jonathan India to the Mariners for one of those starters, for instance, but league-average offense at second base and three-plus years of control likely isn’t enough to sway Seattle president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto to part with anywhere from four to six seasons of control over a big league starter. (Notably, Rosenthal suggests a trade of India is far likelier in the offseason than in the next few days.) The same could well apply to Cardinals outfielder Dylan Carlson — another roughly league-average hitter with three-plus seasons of club control remaining.
Should the Mariners find an offer to their liking on any of their talented young arms, Rosenthal suggests they could call up Emerson Hancock from Double-A. The former sixth overall pick has a 4.26 ERA with solid but not eye-popping strikeout and walk numbers over 19 starts there. Rosenthal also floats the possibility of Seattle acquiring an impending free agent starter — perhaps in a Teoscar Hernandez swap with another win-now club — to step into a rotation spot vacated by a trade of a controllable arm. Marco Gonzales is currently on the injured list but could return later in the season; perhaps Robbie Ray will make it back from Tommy John surgery at some point next year.
While a deal involving one of Seattle’s controllable starters would be tough to pull off, trades of shorter-term veterans could be easier to line up. Reliever Paul Sewald is surely of interest to a number of clubs, and Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported tonight (on Twitter) that Seattle is signaling an openness to moving him.
Sewald has been one of the best relievers in the sport since breaking out with Seattle in 2021. He owns a 2.90 ERA in 170 2/3 innings in an M’s uniform. The right-hander has been effective in all three seasons, including an even 3.00 ERA over 42 frames this year. He’s striking out just under 36% of opponents against a modest 7.9% walk rate.
The 33-year-old righty is playing this season on a $4.1MM arbitration salary. He’s eligible for that process once more before hitting free agency during the 2024-25 offseason. The asking price on Sewald obviously wouldn’t be as extreme as those on the M’s starters, but Seattle would surely aim high in those talks as well.
Mariners Place Bryce Miller On Injured List
The Mariners placed rookie starter Bryce Miller on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to July 1, on account of a blister. Darren McCaughan and Matt Festa were recalled from Triple-A, with the latter taking the bullpen spot vacated by today’s Trevor Gott trade.
Miller only made it into the fourth inning of last Friday’s start against the Rays. The blister’s emergence coincided with a Randy Arozarena homer that led to Miller’s removal. It’s a setback in what has otherwise been a quality debut season. The 24-year-old righty had allowed three or fewer runs in eight of his first 10 MLB starts, working at least six innings in seven of those outings.
A former fourth-round pick, Miller has developed into a top pitching prospect in pro ball. He had a breakout 2022 campaign in the minors and picked up where he left off this year. Over 59 big league innings, he carries a 3.97 ERA with a solid 23.8% strikeout rate and an excellent 5.2% walk percentage. He has established himself as part of a high-quality rotation also including Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert and fellow rookie Bryan Woo.
The M’s don’t have an off day this week, so they’ll need a spot starter or bullpen game to take them into the All-Star Break. It’s unclear whether Seattle anticipates Miller returning when first eligible coming out of the layoff.
Mariners Release Tommy La Stella
The Mariners announced Thursday afternoon that infielder Tommy La Stella has cleared waivers and been released. He’s now a free agent.
Seattle designated the 34-year-old La Stella for assignment earlier in the week when selecting the contract of top pitching prospect Bryce Miller. He’d signed on with the team back in January after being released by the Giants ahead of the third and final season of a three-year contract, but a spring elbow injury had prevented La Stella from playing the field. He’s been limited to DH and pinch-hit duties so far, taking just 24 plate appearances in 12 games over the season’s first month. It was a curious use of a roster spot in the first place, and La Stella’s .190/.292/.238 slash in that span didn’t make the decision look any better.
La Stella was a high-end, contact-oriented utilityman with the Cubs, Angels and A’s from 2016-20, batting a combined .282/.358/.435 in 1061 plate appearances and walking at nearly as high a clip as he struck out (9.6% vs. 10.6%). That strong run helped him land a three-year, $18.75MM deal with the Giants, but things didn’t pan out for La Stella either in San Francisco. His .250/.308/.405 line in 242 plate appearances in 2021 was at least passable, but a hamstring tear limited him to just 76 games. The following season saw La Stella miss time with Achilles and neck injuries, batting just .239/.282/.350 in 195 plate appearances between stints on the injured list.
Health troubles have mounted for La Stella in recent years, but given his track record, contact skills and ability to play multiple positions, another club could still show some interest. He’ll likely need to settle for a minor league deal at this point, particularly since it’s not fully clear when he might again be an option to play defense on a regular basis.
Robbie Ray Undergoes Tommy John Surgery
The Mariners provided an update today on left-hander Robbie Ray, who was reported last week to require season-ending flexor tendon surgery. “Ray, 31, had surgery today on his left elbow,” the press release reads. “The surgery was performed by Dr. Keith Meister at TMI Sports Medicine in Arlington, Texas. Dr. Meister performed a flexor tendon repair and reconstructed the Ulnar Collateral Ligament (UCL) in Ray’s left arm.” The flexor tendon surgery was already reported upon but the UCL reconstruction, also known as Tommy John surgery, wasn’t publicly known prior to today.
In the short term, this news doesn’t change much for the Mariners, as they’ve already been planning on operating without Ray for the remainder of the year. But since TJS typically requires a recovery period of 14 to 18 months, this update seems to indicate the club will be without Ray for even longer, likely a few months into the 2024 season as well.
That’s obviously unwelcome news, as Ray has been one of the better pitchers in the league in recent seasons. After some inconsistency earlier in his career, he had a tremendous season with the Blue Jays in 2021. He posted an ERA of 2.84 in 32 starts with a 32.1% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate and 37.2% ground ball rate. He won the American League Cy Young award and parlayed that performance into a five-year, $115MM deal with the Mariners.
His first year with Seattle was a bit of a drop-off from the previous season but still with plenty to like. He made 32 starts with a 3.71 ERA, striking out 27.4% of opponents, walking 8% and getting grounders at a 39.2% clip. That helped the Mariners break their postseason drought, making it into the playoffs for the first time since 2001. Unfortunately, he was only able to make a single start this year before landing on the injured list and likely won’t make another until midway through 2024.
The Mariners should still have a strong front four in the rotation between now and then as long as everyone is healthy. Luis Castillo and Marco Gonzales are both still under contract next year while both George Kirby and Logan Gilbert are still many years from qualifying for free agency. The final spot is a little less certain since Chris Flexen has been struggling and is slated for free agency after this season anyway. Prospect Bryce Miller was called up recently to start an audition and Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times reported that it wasn’t going to be just a spot start. That was before Miller debuted and tossed six innings against the A’s, allowing just one earned run on two hits and no walks while striking out 10. It’s best not to read too much into just one game, but given that the club planned on giving him a lengthy stay in the rotation anyway and he dominated his first time out, he seems to have a legitimate chance at securing a rotation spot going forward.
Mariners Designate Tommy La Stella For Assignment
The Mariners announced that infielder Tommy La Stella has been designated for assignment. His roster spot will go to pitching prospect Bryce Miller, whose promotion was reported yesterday.
Seattle signed La Stella in January. That came on the heels of his release from the Giants, with whom he’d signed a three-year free agent deal over the 2020-21 offseason. La Stella’s two seasons in San Francisco didn’t go well. He hit .245/.297/.380 and was limited to 136 games over that stretch by injuries. The Giants moved on, eating the $11.5MM he’s due in 2023.
Once La Stella cleared release waivers, other teams could add him for the league minimum salary. The Mariners jumped on the opportunity, hoping he’d add a productive left-handed bat to their infield mix. That didn’t pan out, as the 10-year MLB veteran had a tough showing in 12 games. He hit .190/.292/.238 with only one extra-base hit (a double) in 24 plate appearances. La Stella didn’t see any action on defense; he started six games at designated hitter and came off the bench to pinch hit on six more occasions.
With the club apparently reluctant to push La Stella into much or any defensive work, there was plenty of pressure on him to start well offensively. He didn’t come out of the gate strong and is now designated for assignment for the second time in five months. The M’s will have a week to trade him or put him on waivers; in all likelihood, he’ll be released and hit free agency within the next few days.
Once he gets to the open market, La Stella will again have the opportunity to explore his options around the league. The Giants remain on the hook for the bulk of his salary. He’d be an affordable pickup for another club that thinks there’s some offensive ability still in the tank. It’s possible he’s limited to minor league offers this time around but he still brings a high-contact bat with good awareness of the strike zone.
Mariners To Outright Diego Castillo, Promote Bryce Miller
The Mariners are shuffling up their pitching staff. They’re set to select the contract of top pitching prospect Bryce Miller, as first reported by Joe Doyle of Future Star Series, and they’ve also passed right-hander Diego Castillo through waivers and assigned him outright to Triple-A Tacoma, per Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times (Twitter link).
With that outright, Castillo is no longer on the 40-man roster. He has the three years of service time needed to reject the assignment in favor of free agency, but he doesn’t yet have five years of service, so rejecting the assignment would mean forfeiting the remainder of this year’s $2.95MM salary. As such, he’s sure to accept an assignment to Tacoma and remain with the organization.
It’s been a swift decline for Castillo, who was one of the top relievers moved at the 2021 deadline, going from Tampa Bay to Seattle in exchange for minor league infielder Austin Shenton and righty JT Chargois. Castillo was quite effective in his first season and a half with the Mariners, pitching to a 3.42 ERA with an above-average 25.5% strikeout rate against a slightly below-average 9.4% walk rate. He held opponents to just a .196 average, yielded only 1.06 HR/9 and kept the ball on the ground at a 48.5% clip.
The 2023 season, however, has been a disaster for the 29-year-old Castillo. In 8 2/3 innings so far, he’s walked as many batters as he’s fanned (seven) and also plunked a hitter. He’s already served up homers to two of the 41 batters he’s faced after surrendering only five in 54 1/3 innings (222 batters faced) a year ago. The 94.2 mph average on his fastball, meanwhile, is down 1.6 mph from last year’s mark of 95.8. Overall, he’s sitting on a 6.23 ERA and has allowed 15 of 41 opponents (.366) to reach base.
Any other team could’ve claimed Castillo, but it’s generally rare for other clubs to claim struggling players of this nature when they have a guaranteed contract of some note. The Mariners could’ve waited to make this move but likely saw Castillo’s struggles as a way to open a 40-man roster spot to accommodate their top pitching prospect. If another club had claimed Castillo, the Mariners would’ve been spared the remaining $2.44MM of this year’s salary, but they’ll instead hope he can round back into form with the Rainiers.
Turning to Miller, he’ll make his big league debut when he takes the mound tomorrow against the A’s. He last pitched on April 25, so he’ll be plenty rested. The 24-year-old has had a rough start to his 2023 season in Double-A, pitching to a 6.41 ERA in 19 2/3 frames, but he entered the year among the top 100 prospects at Baseball America, FanGraphs and MLB.com. He currently ranks 92nd, 89th and 85th, respectively on those three lists.
The handful of shaky outings to begin the year, it seems, won’t dissuade the Mariners from hoping he can follow Logan Gilbert and George Kirby to be the next member of the team’s vaunted farm system to step into the Major League rotation. Seattle has already lost Robbie Ray for the season and has seen Chris Flexen struggle in the fifth spot of the rotation, so it stands to reason that Miller could potentially seize a permanent job, if not tomorrow then certainly at some point this season.
Despite his rocky start to the 2023 season, Miller is seen as a potential mid-rotation starter, thanks in no small part to a heater that sits upper-90s and can bump 100 mph. He pairs that with a slider and changeup, and the former college reliever has improved his command as the Mariners have stretched him back out as a starter.
Miller split the bulk of the 2022 season between High-A and Double-A, logging a combined 3.16 ERA with a 30% strikeout rate and an 8.5% walk rate in 133 2/3 innings. He allowed just 0.67 HR/9 and kept the ball on the ground at a slightly above-average rate. And, given that sizable workload in ’22, there’s little reason to think the Mariners will feel the need to monitor his innings total too aggressively this season.
If Miller were to stick in the big leagues, he’d be on pace to qualify for arbitration as a Super Two player following the 2025 season and reach free agency at the conclusion of the 2029 season. Of course, future optional assignments could alter one or both of those timetables considerably.