Mariners Place Bryce Miller On IL With Elbow Inflammation
1:00pm: Miller spoke to reporters, with video relayed by Adam Jude of The Seattle Times. He revealed that he had a cortisone shot and said that an MRI showed no structural damage. He’s hoping to return after a minimal IL stint.
11:50am: The Mariners announced today that right-hander Bryce Miller has been placed on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to May 12th, due to right elbow inflammation. Left-hander Jhonathan Díaz has been recalled to take his place on the roster.
The club hasn’t yet provided any updates on the severity of Miller’s injury or how long they expect him to be out, but it’s always worrisome when a pitcher’s throwing elbow is injured. His most recent start was against the Blue Jays on Sunday, which did not go well, as he allowed seven earned runs in five innings.
Afterwards, he spoke of some physical issues he’s been battling this season but without getting too specific, alluding to some arm soreness and back tightness. “In the past, it felt like I could get through six innings, it’s a breeze,” Miller said, per Daniel Kramer of MLB.com. “I’d feel as good as I do in the sixth as I did in the first. And it’s been a struggle to have that feeling so far. So I don’t know. We’re going to work on it.” Though he didn’t provide many details, Miller continued: “I’ve had multiple things that kind of have lingered since, really, the end of last season, and I kind of took them through the offseason. I thought that I’d be feeling good, and I haven’t felt like myself, body-wise and physically. I think that’s led to being more on my heels mentally, and it just kind of snowballed.”
Miller’s velocity is down a bit compared to last year. He averaged 95.2 miles per hour on his fastball in 2024 and was in that range for much of the early parts of the season as well. So far this year, he’s down to 94.4 mph. Most of his other pitches are down a tick or two as well.
As Miller alluded to, getting deeper into games has been an issue. He hasn’t yet gone six frames in a start this year. His first two outings were his only two going more than five innings. Last year, he went seven innings seven times and six or above an additional 13 times.
The righty is currently sporting a 5.22 earned run average on the year, a big jump from last year’s 2.94 ERA. His 20.1% strikeout rate is a few points below last year’s 24.3% mark, while his walk rate has almost doubled from 6.4% to 12.1%.
Perhaps the physical issues provide a partial explanation for the declining results, but it’s still an unpleasant development for the M’s, who are already dealing with a depleted rotation. George Kirby has been on the IL all season so far due to shoulder inflammation. Logan Gilbert followed him to the IL in late April, suffering from a flexor strain in his pitching elbow.
The Mariners were hoping to start the season with an elite rotation consisting of Miller, Kirby, Gilbert, Bryan Woo and Luis Castillo. That was such a talented group that trade rumors swirled around them all winter. The Seattle front office downplayed the possibility of a trade and is surely glad that they resisted the temptation to flip pitching for more offense, as they are now without three of their projected starting five.
Kirby has been on a rehab assignment and is expected to make one more appearance in the minors before rejoining the major league club next week. Gilbert is perhaps a bit behind Kirby, though he did throw a bullpen yesterday, per Kramer.
For the time being, the Mariners will proceed with a rotation consisting of Castillo, Woo, Logan Evans and Emerson Hancock. Castillo is starting today’s game and then the club is off tomorrow. Díaz can perhaps make a spot start or serve as a long reliever out of the bullpen. That might be a short stay with Kirby due back soon, but both Evans and Hancock currently have ERAs at 6.60 or above, so perhaps one of them could get bumped out instead.
Photo courtesy of Steven Bisig, Imagn Images
Logan Gilbert Expressing Interest In Future Extension With Mariners
As the regular season gets underway, fans in Seattle enter the year on the heels of an offseason that didn’t see the Mariners make many significant changes to the roster, with veteran infielder Donovan Solano standing as the club’s most notable addition. Even after that quiet winter and missing the postseason in both 2024 and ’23, however, the team still remains in good position to compete in 2025 thanks primarily to an elite starting rotation that features four young, homegrown arms with front-of-the-rotation abilities: Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller, and Bryan Woo. Seattle resisted overtures from clubs all around the league regarding their top starters this winter, and Adam Jude of the Seattle Times indicates that the club could have an eye on keeping those young arms in town long-term.
“Frankly, I’d love to see all the four young pitchers stay here,” Mariners chairman John Stanton told Jude. “It takes an interest on the players part and an interest on the organization’s part. But I think we, as an organization, are real believers in having a core group. There’s some symmetry … in keeping a group together that is as talented as our guys are, and I feel great about that.”
Stanton’s comments track with the club’s organizational philosophy of prioritizing extending their in-house talent rather than signing players in free agency. Julio Rodriguez, Luis Castillo, and J.P. Crawford are among the current Mariners who have signed lucrative extensions with the club after either being developed by the club or acquired via trade. Just before Opening Day, the Mariners added another player to that list when they locked up star catcher Cal Raleigh on a six-year extension that will keep him in Seattle through at least the end of the 2030 season. The $105MM pact, which comes with $99.4MM in new money, locks up Raleigh after a three-season stretch where he emerged as one of the best offensive catchers in the sport and on the heels of a Gold Glove winning 2024 season.
Raleigh’s strides behind the plate have been such that he’s been nearly universally lauded among the Mariners’ pitching staff, with Gilbert in particular offering effusive praise for his longtime battery mate. Jude relays that the right-hander noted that the club’s decision to extend Raleigh “definitely” gives him further reason to stay in Seattle long-term, though it’s clear that Gilbert has interest in an extension even outside of continue to work with Raleigh.
“[The Mariners] know where I stand,” Gilbert said, as relayed.by Jude. “Seattle has become like home for me, and I’d love to be able to finish my career here.”
It’s less clear where Kirby, Woo, and Miller stand on the possibility of signing with the club long-term, but Gilbert’s desire to stick around is surely encouraging news for Mariners fans. The club’s ace has been among the most reliable pitchers in baseball since his breakout 2022 campaign, with a 3.36 ERA (112 ERA+) and a 3.50 FIP since then. He’s combined those solid results with durability that’s become rare in today’s game. In each of the past three seasons, Gilbert has posted between 32 and 33 starts, and his 208 2/3 innings of work in his first career All-Star campaign last year led the major leagues and helped him to a sixth-place finish in AL Cy Young award voting.
With two seasons of team control remaining after this one and his 28th birthday approaching in May, it seems as though Gilbert is entering a phase of his career where an extension could make plenty of sense for both sides, guaranteeing the righty significant money through his early-to-mid 30s while extending the Mariners’ window of control through the rest of Gilbert’s prime.
All this being said, it doesn’t appear likely that a deal is around the corner. Gilbert acknowledged to Jude that it’s been “a while” since the Mariners approached his camp about the possibility of an extension, and added that he would be hesitant about opening up extension talks during the season. Those comments would suggest that, if an extension between the sides were going to come together, it would most likely wait until the coming offseason, when Gilbert will be preparing for his penultimate trip through arbitration.
Poll: The Mariners’ Dilemma In Dealing From The Rotation
If there’s one standout trait about the Mariners headed in 2025, it’s their elite rotation; Seattle has the most impressive collection of young, cost-controlled starting pitching talent in the majors right now. Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller, and Bryan Woo combined for more than 700 innings of 3.18 ERA baseball in 2024. Gilbert, who turns 28 in May, is the oldest of the group and the quartet has a combined 17 seasons of team control remaining.
That crop of talented young starters is the envy of the rest of the league, but if there’s a second standout trait about the 2025 Mariners it’s their questionable offense. Cal Raleigh is among the best offensive catchers in the game, but the lineup offers little certainty outside of him. Julio Rodriguez has superstar upside but didn’t show it for much of last year as he entered July hitting just .247/.297/.327. Randy Arozarena managed an excellent 11.7% walk rate down the stretch after being traded to the Mariners midseason, but hit just five home runs in 54 games and was worth just 1.9 fWAR overall last year between his time in Seattle and Tampa.
The trio of Raleigh, Rodriguez, and Arozarena all project to be above average hitters in 2025, but the rest of the lineup is well below average. Victor Robles enjoyed a career year after joining the Mariners midseason last year, but his elite performance in Seattle was carried by a .388 BABIP. Between that extreme good fortune with batted ball luck and his career .236/.311/.356 (81 wRC+) slash line prior to joining the Mariners, it’s hard to expect more than league average production from Robles in 2025. Dylan Moore and Luke Raley both posted solid numbers in 2025 but are platoon players who can’t be relied on in everyday roles, while J.P. Crawford, Mitch Haniger, and Mitch Garver were all well below average hitters in 2024.
The club’s only addition to the offense to this point has been Donovan Solano, who posted solid numbers in 2024 but figures to join Moore and Raley as another part-time player. A combination of Moore, Raley, and Solano seem likely to be capable of handling first and second base, but the club’s lineup still has a gaping hole at the hot corner after non-tendering Josh Rojas and declining Jorge Polanco‘s club option. MLBTR explored the third base market as it pertains to the Mariners earlier this month, but none of the free agent options that fit their budget and lower-level trade candidates available are particularly inspiring.
The Mariners have been hesitant to trade from their excellent rotation, only reluctantly listening to offers on pricey veteran Luis Castillo and seemingly shutting down discussions regarding their young core of arms entirely. But shopping a cost-controlled, elite starting pitcher could open up new possibilities for the club to add impact talent that wouldn’t have been available otherwise. The Red Sox reportedly dangled an impact youngster in first baseman Triston Casas in exchange for either Miller or Woo earlier this winter, and it’s easy to imagine rotation-needy clubs offering similarly impactful talent in exchange for a young arm of that caliber.
Dangling Gilbert or Kirby would surely land the Mariners an even more enticing package in exchange given their solid track records of front-of-the-rotation work in the majors to this point. The Orioles, for example, have a deep group of positional talent but are in need of an impact starter. It’s not impossible to imagine Baltimore being willing to part with an established young talent like Jordan Westburg as the headliner in a package for someone like Gilbert, perhaps packaged with a less impactful cost-controlled arm like Dean Kremer to ease the blow to Seattle’s rotation.
Turning away from the Orioles, Mark Vientos of the Mets and Matt McLain of the Reds are among the other high-end, cost-controlled third basemen who the Mariners could theoretically seek as a headliner in a package for one of their top starters, though neither is quite as valuable as Westburg. Of course, such deals are easier to propose than actually execute. While a team like Cincinnati packaging McLain with one of their own rotation arms like Nick Lodolo in order to land an elite talent like Gilbert could make sense on paper, the injury history of both players could give the Mariners plenty of pause about giving up one of their most valuable assets for little in the way of certainty and the Reds may be equally hesitant to offer up two established players with All-Star upside in exchange for one.
That’s just one example, of course, but it’s equally difficult to imagine the Mariners lining up on the right trade package for a player as valuable as Gilbert or Kirby with the vast majority of rival clubs. High-end, cost-controlled starting pitching is the single most desirable asset in the sport, and while fans of rival teams have long dreamed of their GM working out a trade with Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto to bring one of the Mariners’ young aces to town they’d surely start feeling queasy about the possibility upon seeing just how much their team would need to part with in order to land such a coveted talent.
If you were in the Mariners’ shoes, how would you approach the situation? Would you take the same course Dipoto has and simply refuse to seriously entertain offers for your elite group of young pitchers, looking to upgrade the team in other ways like by dealing Castillo? Would you listen to offers while holding firm on a high asking price? Or would you compromise on the value of one of your top assets in order to help bolster an offense in desperate need of impact? Have your say in the poll below:
How Should Seattle Handle Its Young Starting Pitching?
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Listen to offers, but only trade one if another team makes a huge offer. 60% (3,160)
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Hold onto the whole group and build around them. 25% (1,319)
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Shop them aggressively and work out a deal that improves the lineup no matter the cost. 15% (809)
Total votes: 5,288
Mariners Turned Down Triston Casas Trade Offer From Red Sox
The Mariners’ pitching depth over the last few seasons has drawn many teams into trade talks and it was almost exactly a year ago that reports surfaced about Boston’s interest in the Seattle rotation. Nothing materialized between the two teams then, but Ryan Divish and Adam Jude of the Seattle Times report that earlier this offseason, the Red Sox offered first baseman Triston Casas for either Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo. However, these “exploratory talks” then “didn’t progress any further,” as the M’s don’t have interest in trading from their rotation unless it is something of a last resort.
Given the contrasting strengths and weaknesses of the Mariners and Red Sox, a pitching-for-hitting swap would seem like an ideal answer to both team’s needs. While Miller or Woo might not be precisely the kind of ace the Sox are looking for to reinforce their rotation, obviously both are talented young arms with upside and team control — neither Miller or Woo is eligible for arbitration yet, and both are controlled through the 2029 season. Likewise, Casas is controlled through 2028 and has already shown glimpses of his potential at the MLB level.
Seattle president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has consistently turned down past offers for Miller, Woo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, and Luis Castillo. Recent reports suggest that the M’s are at least open to hearing what teams have to say about Castillo (the oldest and highest-paid member of the rotation), but Divish and Jude write that “the Mariners….are not actively shopping Castillo.”
Nothing is stopping Dipoto from hearing what teams might have to say, just in case someone steps forth with an offer too good to refuse. However, Dipoto told Divish and other reporters today that “our initial reluctance to any type of deeper discussions on trading starting pitching has probably resulted in a lot fewer phone calls than we’ve usually fielded to this point in the offseason.”
The result is perhaps something of a stalemate, as the Mariners are waiting for rival teams to lower their asking prices and other clubs are waiting for the M’s to become more open to the idea of trading from the rotation depth. Things could evolve once some free agent pitchers come off the board, or perhaps if the Mariners themselves added a pitcher in the form of Roki Sasaki. While virtually every team in baseball will be making an appeal to the Japanese ace now that his posting window is officially open, Seattle’s track record with both pitching development and star Japanese players would seemingly put the M’s move above most teams in the bidding process.
In the interim, it seems as though the Mariners will continue to focus on trying to trade from its minor league depth, except as Dipoto notes, “it’s the time where prospects aren’t a driver, where just about everybody is focused on major league players. And I don’t know why that seems different to me now than it usually does, and maybe that too changes in a week or two with the free agent market really opening up.”
Since shortstop J.P. Crawford is the only established member of the Mariners’ infield, landing a promising first base talent like Casas would go a long way towards shoring up the infield and the shaky lineup as a whole. That said, the Mariners have at least a part-time first base option already in Luke Raley, who looks to be getting a good chunk of playing time against right-handed pitching.
Since the M’s have been linked to such second or third base trade candidates as Nico Hoerner or Alec Bohm, it could be that Seattle might be trying to address one of those positions first before turning to the comparatively easier-to-fill position of first base. An industry source told Divish and Jude that the Mariners could look into trying to add a third team into talks with the Cubs about Hoerner, perhaps to help cover some of the money owed in the remaining two years of Hoerner’s contract.
From Boston’s perspective, trading Casas wouldn’t necessarily create a vacancy at first base. Rafael Devers is a subpar defender at third base, and reportedly the Sox have at least considered moving him to first base in order to open up the hot corner either for one of Boston’s up-and-coming infield prospects, or perhaps for a big free agent like Alex Bregman. This remains a speculative topic for now, as manager Alex Cora told reporters (including Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe) today that he hasn’t spoken with Devers about a position change, and Cora in fact praised Devers’ third base work in 2024 as “outstanding.”
Then again, there is no shortage of gamesmanship going on during the offseason, as it was just last month that Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow downplayed the idea of trading Casas. Reports then surfaced this past weekend that the Sox were considering the possibility of dealing Casas for pitching, and this apparent offer for Miller or Woo only reinforces the idea that Casas is far from an untouchable part of the Red Sox roster. Of course, this also isn’t to say that Casas is going to be moved for anything less than a premium return.
Mariners Notes: Urias, Woo, Miller
Mariners infielder Luis Urias exited last night’s game after taking a 94 mph fastball of his left wrist, but the Mariners announced that he’s been diagnosed with a contusion. X-rays on the wrist were negative, per MLB.com, and he’ll be considered day-to-day for the time being.
The 26-year-old Urias has gotten out to a .160/.300/.400 start this season, striking out 11 times in 30 plate appearances (36.7%) — an uncharacteristically high rate for a player who entered the season with a career 21.6% strikeout rate.
The Mariners entered the season envisioning a platoon of the righty-swinging Urias and lefty-hitting Josh Rojas — a more contact-oriented pairing than the more boom-or-bust nature of since-traded third baseman Eugenio Suarez. Rojas has been one of the team’s bright spots, hitting .311/.392/.422 (148 wRC+) in 51 trips to the plate thus far. Only four of those plate appearances have come against lefties, but if Urias is sidelined for a bit, Rojas could get some more reps against southpaws. Seattle doesn’t have many lefty opponents on the immediate horizon, though they’re slated to face Andrew Heaney on Thursday.
Elsewhere on the injury front, the M’s are getting closer to welcoming righty Bryan Woo back to the staff. The right-hander made his first minor league rehab appearance with Triple-A Tacoma last night, and as broadcaster Mike Curto points out, pitched three perfect innings while fanning five of his nine opponents.
Woo’s fastball ranged from 91-95 mph, per Curto, which is down from last year when he averaged 95.2 mph on his heater. That said, it’s also the first rehab start for a right-hander who’s yet to pitch this season while waiting for some elbow inflammation to calm down, so that’s not necessarily a massive red flag just yet. It’d be natural if he built closer to that velocity as he continued to ramp up over what could be multiple rehab starts between now and his activation.
In place of Woo in the rotation, Seattle has been relying on former top-10 pick Emerson Hancock, who’s posted a 6.10 ERA through four starts, although the vast majority of the damage came in one tough outing against the Brewers. Hancock has yielded a combined seven earned runs through 17 1/3 innings in his other three appearances but was lit up for an eight spot in just 3 1/3 innings that day. He’s sporting a well below-average 16.7% strikeout rate but also an exceptional 3.3% walk rate. Hancock is the least established arm in Seattle’s rotation, trailing Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert and Bryce Miller — so he’s likely to be the odd man out if everyone’s healthy when Woo returns.
Miller, in particular, has impressed the Mariners this year. He’s pitched to an electric 1.85 ERA with a 26.1% strikeout rate and 7.6% walk rate in 24 2/3 innings. Miller recently chatted with Adam Jude of the Seattle Times about his incorporation of a new splitter into his repertoire — a pitch that’s been flat-out dominant for the 25-year-old righty so far. Miller has thrown his new pitch at a 19.4% clip this season, finishing off 24 plate appearances with the pitch. Those 24 plate appearances have resulted in 21 outs — eight of them strikeouts — and yielded only three singles. Both Gilbert and Kirby began throwing splitters last season, and Miller has leaned on his teammates for advice and guidance when looking to master his new pitch.
“It kind of has a mind of its own sometimes, but I’ve been able to command it really well,” Miller tells Jude of his new weapon. “So, I’m really happy with it and I think it’s opened up a lot of things for me [against] lefties and righties.”
AL Central Notes: Twins, Miller, Valera, Carpenter
The Twins brought back four players from the Mariners in exchange for Jorge Polanco last month, though Minnesota’s first target was right-hander Bryce Miller, Adam Jude of the Seattle Times reports. Miller and fellow rookie Bryan Woo were among the most sought-after trade targets of the winter, yet the Mariners weren’t eager to move either pitcher, or anyone from their crop of young and controllable starters. While Polanco fills a big need for Seattle at second base, he is only under team control through the 2025 season, so any kind of Polanco-for-Miller swap would’ve needed to be much different on Minnesota’s end to land Miller’s services.
More from around the AL Central…
- Guardians outfield prospect George Valera will miss “several weeks” after suffering a left hamstring strain, according to Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer (X link). Valera missed a big chunk of the 2023 season due to hamstring injuries and a hamate surgery, and the result was an unremarkable .220/.349/.397 slash line over 338 minor league plate appearances, mostly at the Triple-A level. Valera had been a regular on top-100 prospect lists prior to his 2023 disappointment, and his readiness for the start of the Triple-A season could now be in question depending on how much time he misses with his latest injury.
- Kerry Carpenter is also dealing with a strain to his left hamstring, though the Tigers slugger is only slated to miss a few days for now, manager A.J. Hinch told reporters (including Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press). Hinch described the situation as “precautionary,” and Carpenter didn’t think he was going to be out for long. Over his first two MLB seasons, Carpenter has hit .273/.334/.474 with 26 homers over 572 PA, and is expected to play a key role as the Tigers’ regular designated hitter in 2024.
Mariners Interested In Dylan Cease
The Mariners have begun discussing a trade for right-hander Dylan Cease with the White Sox, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. Nightengale suggests that the White Sox are seeking a package centered around one of Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo, Seattle’s pair of cost-controlled righty starters. There’s no indications that a deal is particularly close or even likely, with Nightengale noting that the White Sox appear likely to retain Cease through the start of the 2024 season if a deal with Seattle doesn’t come together. That sentiment echoes other recent reports regarding Cease’s trade candidacy that have cast doubt on the likelihood he changes uniforms before Opening Day.
The report marks the first time the Mariners have been connected to Cease this winter. The right-hander has been a frequent subject of trade rumors this offseason with the Yankees, Reds, Orioles, and Red Sox among the clubs rumored to have had interest at one point or another. Despite that widespread interest, teams have largely appeared to balk at the high asking price the White Sox have set for Cease’s services. A report last month indicated that the club requested a package of four of the Cincinnati’s top prospects in negotiations with the Reds earlier this winter, and Nightengale added that talks between the White Sox and Orioles regarding Cease have “stopped” at this point in the offseason.
In negotiations with the Mariners, it appears the White Sox have pivoted from their previous ask of a hefty prospect package to instead focus on big-league ready talent. It’s an understandable move for the club to make. Woo and Miller are entering their age-24 and -25 seasons, respectively, coming off solid rookie campaigns with six seasons of team control remaining. Either righty would not only be able to immediately replace Cease in the club’s rotation mix, but would give the club another long-term asset to build around alongside star center fielder Luis Robert Jr. Robert is under team control for the next four seasons.
As for Seattle, adding Cease to their starting staff would give the club perhaps the strongest rotation in the majors. Cease is coming off a relative down season on the mound where he posted a 4.58 ERA in 177 innings of work but is just one season removed from a 2022 campaign where he placed second in AL Cy Young award voting. Over the past three seasons, Cease sports a solid 3.54 ERA (121 ERA+) and 3.40 FIP with a 29.8% strikeout rate, numbers that paint him as a solid #2 starter. The 28-year-old would likely slot into the middle of the club’s rotation alongside Logan Gilbert behind ace Luis Castillo and young star George Kirby, with whichever of Woo or Miller remained with the Mariners rounding out the club’s starting rotation.
Replacing Miller or Woo with Cease in the rotation would provide the club with additional certainty in a rotation that figures to lean heavily on young players. The most experienced pitcher aside from Castillo who currently projects for the club’s starting rotation is Gilbert, who is entering just the fourth season of his career in 2024. Kirby has just two MLB seasons under his belt, while both Miller and Woo are entering their sophomore campaigns with just 25 and 18 big league starts respectively under their belts.
Cease, by contrast, has been among the most durable starters in the league in recent years with 97 starts over the past three seasons. For a team that has long valued starting pitching depth but parted with both Marco Gonzales while swapping Robbie Ray for Anthony DeSclafani earlier this offseason, bringing a durable veteran arm in place of a young player who has yet to make 30 starts in a big league season could provide the club with an opportunity to make up for the innings lost by parting with Gonzales and Ray.
On the other hand, it would nonetheless be something of a surprise to see Seattle part with one of their young, cost-controlled arms in a deal that wouldn’t address an area of greater need such as the club’s infield, where Josh Rojas and Luis Urias project to be the everyday starters at second and third base. In addition to shopping for another infielder to add to the club’s mix, the Mariners have expressed interest in fortifying their relief corps, which currently features Andres Munoz and Matt Brash as its back-end options after the club dealt closer Paul Sewald to the Diamondbacks last summer. Recent comments from president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto also seemed to cast doubt on the possibility of a deal involving Miller or Woo, as he suggested that retaining the duo was “Plan A” for their offseason.
Mariners Still Exploring Infield, Bullpen Markets
It’s been an active two weeks for the Mariners, who’ve recently signed Mitch Garver to a two-year deal and shipped out Robbie Ray and Jose Caballero in trades that brought Mitch Haniger, Anthony DeSclafani and Luke Raley back to Seattle. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto said this weekend that while his team feels more complete now than at any point this offseason, he’s still open to subsequent additions (link via Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times).
More specifically, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Mariners are still hoping to acquire an infielder to make the club less reliant on the uncertain tandem of Luis Urias and Josh Rojas, who are currently projected to start at third base and second base, respectively. Seattle would also like to add a reliever, per Rosenthal, which Dipoto alluded to in his comments to Divish and others.
An infield upgrade is a sensible target for the M’s, given the volatility presented by both Urias and Rojas (and to a lesser extent, first baseman Ty France, who’s coming off a down season). From 2021-22, both Urias (.244/.340/.426, 111 wRC+) and Rojas (.266/.345/.401, 106 wRC+) were above-average performers at the plate, due in no small part to walk rates approaching 11%.
Rojas saw his walk rate drop to 7.7% in 2023, however, as he batted just .240/.303/.338 in 350 plate appearances. Urias maintained his walk rate but watched his hard-hit rate and exit velocity plummet en route to a middling .194/.337/.299 slash in 155 trips to the plate. Both players saw their strikeout rates tick up to near identical marks of 23.2% and 23.1% — slightly higher than league average but also well south of the 30%-plus rates of some names they shipped out in trades.
Both Rojas and Urias come with platoon issues of note, as well. The lefty-swinging Rojas has extremely similar rate stats against lefties and righties, with identical 93 wRC+ marks against each, but his production against lefties is contingent on a .361 average on balls in play that’s not likely to hold up. Rojas has punched out at an ugly 28.3% clip against southpaws compared to a 21% mark against righties and hit for more power when holding the platoon advantage as well (.098 ISO versus lefties, .122 versus righties). It’s the opposite for the right-handed Urias, who’s smacked southpaws at a .276/.353/.442 pace in his career but carries a .219/.326/.365 slash against right-handers.
Rojas and Urias are both capable of playing either second or third base, so there’s a potential platoon setup between the two. Alternatively, if the M’s succeed in adding a second or third baseman and prefer to go with one true starter at the other slot, both Rojas and Urias could profile as a potential utility option off the bench.
Because of the defensive flexibility the current group possesses, the Mariners could look for options at either second base or third base. Dipoto typically operates more on the trade market than on the free-agent market, though both provide myriad avenues to fill the team’s needs. Whit Merrifield stands as the top free agent at second base. The Mariners aren’t going to meet Matt Chapman‘s asking price at third base, but Gio Urshela and Justin Turner would represent much more affordable alternatives. Any of that trio would meet the Mariners’ previously stated goal of improving the club’s contact rate (which hasn’t exactly been strictly adhered to, when looking at the acquisition of Raley in particular).
On the trade market, Minnesota’s Jorge Polanco is a natural target who could step in at second base (speculatively speaking, to be clear). The Twins are deep in controllable young infielders and looking to slightly scale back payroll due to the RSN collapse that’s impacting budgets around the league (including the Mariners). The switch-hitting Polanco is earning $10.5MM this season and has a $12MM option for the ’25 campaign. The Reds, Orioles, Cardinals and Guardians are also deep in infield talent and could be intrigued by Seattle’s stock of young arms. That said, Dipoto cast significant doubt on his willingness to move a controllable starting pitcher with his weekend comments.
“We did a lot of groundwork on what it might look like if we did trade one of those young starters, and we never liked the way it looked,” Dipoto said (via Divish). He called retaining his stock of young arms (e.g. Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller, Bryan Woo, Emerson Hancock) “Plan A” this offseason.
Within that same media session, Dipoto maintained an openness to further additions to the roster, speculatively rattling off the possibility of making “a fun addition in the bullpen” or more generally “an upgrade somewhere on the field that we don’t really have.” The Mariners have an imposing late-inning trio of Andres Munoz, Matt Brash and Justin Topa, but they’re relatively light on lefty options — with 28-year-old Gabe Speier and 30-year-old Tayler Saucedo as the only options on the 40-man roster. Both were solid in 2023, but neither had found any real MLB success prior to last season.
Dipoto has said previously that the Mariners’ 2024 payroll could increase over its 2023 levels, although a substantial increase hasn’t looked likely all winter. Ownership has rather clearly placed some fiscal constraints on Dipoto, GM Justin Hollander and the rest of the front office, as they’re among the many teams in the game facing financial uncertainty due to their own RSN situation.
Roster Resource currently projects a payroll of around $132MM for the Mariners, which sits about $8MM shy of last year’s end-of-season mark. Divish writes within his column that the Mariners want to leave some wiggle room for in-season additions, but there’s of course still some room beneath last year’s budget and the possibility that additional trades could further alter the current payroll outlook.
Mariners “Rebuffed” Red Sox’ Interest In Young Starting Pitchers
The Red Sox’ offseason search for starting pitching hasn’t yet produced any results, although that’s in large part due to the holdup that Yoshinobu Yamamoto is placing on the market. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe breaks down the Sox’ interest in Yamamoto and the manner in which said interest has thus far prevented them from making offers elsewhere on the market (e.g. Aaron Nola, Sonny Gray, Eduardo Rodriguez). With Boston hoping to lure Yamamoto to Fenway Park, it’s at least understandable if the team doesn’t feel comfortable putting forth offers in the vicinity that those other pitchers signed — ranging from $75MM to $172MM — while simultaneously keeping enough powder dry to put forth the type of massive offer Yamamoto will command.
The Yamamoto interest hasn’t been as much of a detriment on a trade market that has largely remained idle, however. Speier reports that the Sox approached the Mariners about their cadre of controllable starting pitchers but were generally rebuffed. Whether that was due to the quality of their offer (or lack thereof), or simply due to the Mariners being unwilling to move someone from the George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller, Bryan Woo quartet isn’t clear.
However, Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto suggested at last week’s Winter Meetings that a trade of one of their young big league starters doesn’t seem likely (link via Adam Jude of the Seattle Times). Dipoto acknowledged “constant” inquiries regarding his young rotation before casting doubt on whether he’d actually make a move involving anyone from the bunch.
“We’ll see what the market bears,” said Dipoto, who’s entering his ninth season as the leader of Mariners baseball operations. “We are going to lean into the thing we do well, and if opportunity presents itself, we have to listen. But by and large, we pitch it; we catch it. We’re very good at developing young players, and we’re going to continue to focus on those things.”
On the one hand, the Mariners and Red Sox seem like natural trade partners. The Mariners are deep controllable young pitchers who’ve had MLB experience. The Red Sox have several promising, controllable hitters who’ve made their big league debuts already (e.g. Triston Casas, Jarren Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela) and, in some cases, had a good bit of success.
The price to acquire controllable young pitching is always steep, however — particularly when talking about players who’ve already had as much success as Kirby and Gilbert or those with six full seasons of control, like Miller and Woo. The Mariners could well prefer more established hitters. Similarly, the Sox might be loath to part with much in the way of immediate MLB production in the lineup, as the free-agent market isn’t exactly deep in bats to replace any outgoing hitters.
To be clear, there’s no indication the two parties can’t or won’t revisit talks — just as there’s no indication the Mariners will staunchly turn away any and all inquiries on their excellent rotation. To the contrary, Dipoto acknowledged to Jude that for the “right player” with another club, the Mariners “will consider just about anything.”
It’s been a generally quiet offseason for both teams in terms of notable additions. Boston has picked up Tyler O’Neill in a trade with the Cardinals, but the offseasons of Boston and particularly Seattle thus far have drawn more headlines for their subtractions than their new acquisitions. The Sox traded Alex Verdugo to the archrival Yankees, while the M’s have traded away Eugenio Suarez, Jarred Kelenic and Marco Gonzales. In doing so, they’ve substantially reduced the team strikeout rate and freed up some resources to perhaps bring in some offense via the free-agent and/or trade market. Seattle has been connected to free agents Jorge Soler and J.D. Martinez over the past week, while rumored trade interest has included the likes of Randy Arozarena, Isaac Paredes, Josh Naylor and (before he was traded to Boston) O’Neill. The Red Sox, meanwhile, continue to search for ways to upgrade their starting staff.
Mariners Planning To Use a Six-Man Rotation
At some point in the coming days, the Mariners are planning to shift to a six-man rotation, president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto told Adam Jude of The Seattle Times. Despite season-ending injuries to Robbie Ray, Marco Gonzales, and Easton McGee, the Mariners boast one of the deepest rotations in baseball. As Dipoto put it, “Our one through six in the starting rotation … can pitch with anybody in the league.” That being said, most of Seattle’s starting pitchers are young and inexperienced; in other words, they could benefit from some extra rest.
The current starting five consists of Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Bryce Miller, Logan Gilbert, and Emerson Hancock. Bryan Woo is expected to return from the injured list and rejoin the rotation early next week (Twitter link). Of those six, only Castillo and Gilbert had pitched a full major league season before this year. Miller, Hancock, and Woo are rookies, while Kirby, still just 25 years old, is on pace to pitch his first qualified season. He threw 130 innings last year in his rookie campaign.
As Jude reports, the Mariners plan to go with a six-man rotation once Woo comes back from the IL. He could have supplanted Hancock, who has struggled in his first two big league starts (5.40 ERA, 9.8% strikeout rate), but it seems Seattle is comfortable giving the top prospect a longer leash. However, Dipoto did mention that the team might “piggyback” Woo and Hancock down the stretch after trying out a six-man rotation for a week or two.
Additional rest will be most beneficial for Seattle’s young arms, but it should help the rest of the rotation, too. Castillo has been one of the more durable starters in baseball over the last six years, making 158 starts with a 3.58 ERA. Only six pitchers have thrown more innings in that time, so he could certainly use some time off. The same goes for Gilbert, who had thrown 338 2/3 big league innings before his 26th birthday. Since making his debut in 2021, he ranks tenth in the majors in starts and 15th in innings pitched. Dipoto acknowledged that Castillo, Gilbert, and Kirby will have to shoulder plenty of responsibility should the Mariners make the playoffs, and some extra rest now should help them stay fresh for a potential postseason run.
However, while this arrangement will benefit everyone in the rotation, it will make things harder on the bullpen. If the Mariners carry six starting pitchers, they will only have room for seven relievers on the 26-man roster. Furthermore, it’s not as if Seattle’s young starters have been pitching especially deep into games. Woo and Hancock are averaging exactly five innings per start, while Miller is averaging five and a third. Castillo, Kirby, and Gilbert are averaging about six innings per start, but those three will pitch less often with a six-man rotation. Thus, the bullpen will have a heavier load to carry for as long as the six-man rotation experiment lasts.
Thankfully for Seattle, they have one of the best bullpens in baseball. Mariners relievers rank second in ERA and third in FanGraphs WAR, and they’ve still had excellent results since losing closer Paul Sewald, pitching to a 1.89 ERA since the trade deadline. Moreover, they have essentially been using a seven-man bullpen as it is. Andrés Muñoz, Matt Brash, Trent Thornton, Tayler Saucedo, Justin Topa, Isaiah Campbell, and Gabe Speier have combined to pitch 45 2/3 of the 47 2/3 innings the Mariners bullpen has thrown since August 1. The Mariners will be counting on those seven to handle a difficult workload for the next while, but eventually, they should get some relief if Woo and Hancock do, in fact, move into a piggyback arrangement.
Gonzales and Ray are expected to rejoin the club at some point in 2024, at which point the Mariners will have an embarrassment of riches in the starting rotation. Gonzales is under team control through 2025, while Ray is signed through 2026. Castillo, meanwhile, is signed through 2027 with a vesting option for 2028. Gilbert is also under team control through 2027, Kirby through 2028, and the rookies through at least 2029 (pending further optional assignments).
With so many capable starters (and so many arms that will need a 40-man spot over the winter), there’s a good chance Dipoto will look to make a trade. The Mariners were reportedly willing to consider dealing one of their starting pitchers this summer, and they’ll have a better opportunity to do so over the offseason. The Cardinals, who have a surplus of young hitters but not nearly enough pitching, could be an interesting trade partner. They will be looking to add multiple starters this winter, and they were already linked to Gilbert earlier this year.