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C.C. Sabathia

Heyman’s Latest: Lofton, Owings, Sabathia

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SI.com’s Jon Heyman has a new column up.

  • Heyman and Buster Olney both believe the Cubs should sign free agent Kenny Lofton to help fill in for Alfonso Soriano.  However, Olney noted that the Cubs don’t seem interested.
  • Apparently the Yanks pushed hard to get Micah Owings in the Randy Johnson deal a few years ago.  Ross Ohlendorf still looks interesting, at least.
  • Heyman has heard whispers about C.C. Sabathia having arm problems but admits there’s no real evidence.  Sabathia threw 256.3 innings last year (postseason included), an increase of almost 60 IP over 2007.

Sabathia’s Future Value Remains Strong

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Jon Heyman weighs in on C.C. Sabathia, his early season struggles and his impending free agency. Heyman notes that Sabathia and his 13.50 ERA are "costing himself millions by the pitch", even going so far as to say that CC could stand for "Complete Choke."

Heyman lists four players that had huge walk-years (Adrian Beltre, Alex Rodriguez, Alfonso Soriano, B.J. Ryan) and four players that struggled in their walk year (Andruw Jones, Jason Jennings, Jermaine Dye, Jeff Weaver). The problem with this list, is that there is not a single player similar to Sabathia. That is, there is not one left-handed ace in the bunch. As far as free agents go, there is nothing more valuable than a left-handed power pitcher in his prime.

The one player that Sabathia should be compared to is Barry Zito.

Zito had win totals of 14, 11, 14 and 16 and ERA+ of 134, 101, 113 and 116 in the four years prior to free agency and still managed to collect a 7-year, $126MM contract. On the other hand, Sabathia’s last three seasons included win totals of 15, 12 and 19 and ERA+ of 104, 140 and 143. In addition, Sabathia is a year younger in ’08 than Zito was the year prior to free agency.

Sabathia may indeed be costing himself a few million dollars, but in the end he is still a left-handed power pitcher in his prime and will almost certainly eclipse the $126MM contract signed by Zito.

Cork Gaines writes for Rays Index and can be reached here.

Odds and Ends: Pavano, Lima, Sabathia

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Today’s link collection contains a trio of awesome pitchers.  Enjoy.

Baseball Blogs Weigh In

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Bunch of random topics so let’s just get to it and see what it being said in the Blogosphere…

  • Big League Stew talks to Bless You Boys about the idea of Barry Bonds signing with the Tigers. BYB argues against signing Bonds noting that the Tigers already have a bunch of slow players (base cloggers?) and what they really need is some more speed in the lineup…Although we keep hearing about collusion and have not heard any numbers bandied about, Bonds has always made it very clear how much he values the almighty dollar. Does anybody else think that Bonds would already be in uniform if he had come out said he would play 2008 for $3-5MM plus incentives? The baggage is what it is, but teams might find it easier to deal with it at a price Bonds is not likely to accept.
  • Rockin’ The Red takes a look at the five Cardinals that are most likely to be traded during the season…Chris Duncan is an interesting name on the list. With all the outfielders that the Cards have, Duncan is a solid bat that is likely to be a Super-2 at the end of the year.
  • The Yankees: Minors to Majors looks at the pending free agents for the Yankees and concludes that there is plenty of compensation picks to be had giving the Yankees plenty of flexibility to sign a high-end free agent like C.C. Sabathia…Of course, that is assuming the Yankees would let something like draft pick compensation stand in the way of signing a free agent. Not likely.
  • Wrigleyville23 has had enough of the Brian Roberts-to-the-Cubs media reports…Who?
  • The Bronx Zoo would love to see Nick Johnson back in a Yankees’ uniform but notes that Dmitri Young may not be a dependable replacement for the Nats.
  • Mets Fever notes that eight players have moved among the Brewers, Mets and Nats since this offseason…Let’s just say that the Brewers did not get the best of that "three-way trade".
  • One writer at DRays Bay is hoping the Rays and M’s can re-engage talks for Edwin Jackson…The M’s may be interested once again after being two-hit by Jackson yesterday, but maybe the price just went up.
  • One name that kept popping up recently as a possible trade piece in the near future was Rich Harden. Well, Harden has once again found himself on the DL and Athletics Nation is not taking it well.

Cork Gaines writes for Rays Index and can be reached here.

Sheets & Sabathia Head Next Year’s Free Agent Class

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A couple nice nuggets to confirm what we already suspect regarding a couple big fish on the 2009 Starting Pitcher Free Agents list.

As MLBTR covered here, this should be Ben Sheets’ last year with the Brewers.  Further affirming the inevitable, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel says,

If the 29-year-old right-hander finally has a healthy season and puts up impressive numbers, the Brewers would be hard-pressed to meet his asking price on what has been a runaway pitching market in recent years.  And, should Sheets break down again and turns his four-year, $38.5 million contract into a complete boondoggle, the Brewers would be taken to task for giving him another chance.

And news on an even bigger fish, Patrick McManamon of the Ohio Beacon Journal brings us a quote from Indians GM Mark Shapiro that could lead one to believe that C.C. Sabathia will be voted out of the Tribe:

”We’re forced to confront decisions every year,” Shapiro said. ”We don’t lose much next year. We lose one core player next year . . . maybe not. But then the two years that follow we lose almost no one — and none of our core players.  ’The biggest challenge that we’ve got over the next four years, the three years that follow this one, is how we handle losing C.C., if we lose him.”

Tim recently put together an excellent breakdown of Sabathia-suitors here.

By Nat Boyle

Sabathia Blasé About New York

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For the most part, the Indians’ C.C. Sabathia continued to deflect questions about his future after his start today against the Yankees, says Andrew Castrovince of MLB.com.

Hounded by the Yankees-centric media, however, the soon-to-be free agent surely launched a jolt of pain through Yankees Nation when he was asked if he likes New York.

His response?  "It’s all right," he said.

Sabathia continued to maintain with reporters that "in a perfect world," he would want to stay with Cleveland.  After all, "I’ve been here since I was 17."

Posted by Matt Birt

Heyman’s Sabathia Suitors

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SI.com’s Jon Heyman believes C.C. Sabathia’s three most likely landing spots next winter are the Yankees, Dodgers, and Giants, in that order.

While Sabathia/Tim Lincecum/Matt Cain would be nasty, I can’t see the Giants doing another $100MM+ pitching contract.  Then again, I didn’t see them as a top suitor for Aaron Rowand this winter.

Let’s take a look at some other possibilities for C.C.  I agree that the Yanks and Dodgers will be top contenders.

  • Blue Jays – An A.J. Burnett replacement?  Not likely; the Jays don’t have a ton of money coming off the books beyond Burnett.  And Roy Halladay’s salary increases by $4.25MM.
  • Mets – They seem more likely to go after Mark Teixeira, though they could lose Pedro and Oliver Perez after this year.
  • Red Sox – Can’t count ’em out.  They’ll probably at least check in.
  • Rays – A .500 run this year, followed by a major free agent splash for a contending ’09 team?  Would be fun, but I expect them to be more fiscally responsible.
  • Tigers – Adding Sabathia to replace Kenny Rogers could be the icing on the cake of a very good team.  Will depend on how Verlander/Willis/Bonderman/Robertson hold up this year.
  • Royals – Long shot, though Dayton Moore has shown a willingness to spend some bucks on free agents.  Could this be his version of the Braves’ Maddux signing?
  • Angels – I think they’ll be in the mix; Garland is a free agent and Escobar has question marks.
  • Phillies – Would be an interesting way for the new GM to introduce himself.  Burrell leaving means $14MM off the books, though many have rising salaries for ’09.  Plus the closer job will be open.
  • Cubs – Many Cubs’ players’ salaries increase significantly in ’09.  Zambrano by $2.75MM, Ramirez by $1.65MM, Soriano by $3MM, Fukudome by $5.5MM, Lilly by $5MM, Marquis by $3.5MM.  That’s over $20 mil right there, and for that reason I don’t see it.
  • Astros – This seems a fair possibility; they’ve shown a willingness to give out huge deals.  They could be faced with $10MM in increases on current players, though, so it would require a major payroll increase.
  • I don’t see any other clubs that would entertain a $100MM+ contract.  Thoughts?

Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Johan Santana’s Contract

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The biggest move of this year’s Hot Stove League was clearly the trade of Johan Santana. The subsequent contract given to Santana by the Mets set a new benchmark for pitchers and could have a lasting trickle-down effect on other pitchers in baseball. The players most likely to cash in on the Santana deal are other young lefties with strong track records. The first fallout appears to be in Cleveland, with the recent news that C.C. Sabathia has broken off contract talks. With pitchers and catchers conducting their first workouts in many camps today, let’s take a look at how Santana’s deal is affecting other pitchers in the blogosphere.

  • Let’s Go Tribe feels that Sabathia could command $150MM on the open market and breaking off contract talks means Sabathia will not be a member of the Indians in 2009.
  • Indians Confidential agrees that Sabathia is "as good as gone."
  • Tribe Report does not think the Indians should give Sabathia a seven-year deal as it is a stretch to think he will be worth $20MM at age 35.
  • MLB Fleece Factor calls it "The Santana Effect" and believes that Santana’s new deal means that A.J. Burnett will likely opt out of his contract in Toronto following the 2008 season. In addition, they believe that there is a possibility that the Jays will look to trade Roy Halladay prior to his 2010 free agency.
  • Rays Index believes there is a good chance the Rays will look to trade Scott Kazmir following the 2008 season. They feel that Santana’s deal will make it nearly impossible for the Rays to sign Kazmir to an extension prior to his 2010 free agency. In addition, the recent bounty obtained by the Orioles for Erik Bedard and the pipeline of top pitching prospects in the Rays’ system, suggest that it is in the best interest of the franchise to move their young ace.

by Cork Gaines

C.C. Sabathia Extension Rumors

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When we last checked in on the C.C. Sabathia situation, Paul Hoynes spoke of a December offer for $68-72MM covering the 2009-12 seasons, plus a bonus added for ’08.

Hoynes writes about the topic again today and has slightly different information.  Now he says the four-year extension offer includes the 2008 season, so it would run through 2011.  Sabathia is set to earn $11.25MM in ’08.

That’s really a three-year extension.  Johan Santana received extra money for ’08, a five-year extension, and a valuable 2014 option with a solid buyout.  Here’s what I think the Indians would need to do to sign Sabathia, at the minimum:

  • Give him a $6MM bonus to put toward ’08
  • Offer another four years (2009-12) at $75MM, an average annual value of $18.75MM
  • If the Tribe offered that and Sabathia passed, they could at least say they made a competitive offer.

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