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NL Notes: Parity, CarGo, Cubs, Reds, Appel

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The National League has rather a pronounced divide between its better teams and its anticipated bottom-dwellers, ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark writes, and that poses a significant problem. While commissioner Rob Manfred says that the league’s less talented clubs are in a routine phase of the natural winning/rebuilding cycle, some rival executives believe that at least some organizations are looking to strip down their MLB rosters, pursue top draft picks, and aim for a relatively distant competitive timeline. There are a host of interesting quotes, particularly from Manfred, who says that outright tanking efforts would be “self-correcting” in that, “if too many teams try to follow this strategy, the effectiveness of that strategy will be naturally undermined.” The piece is well worth a read.

Here’s the latest out of the N.L.:

  • Rockies GM Jeff Bridich has been in touch with veteran outfielder Carlos Gonzalez to tell him not to pay any heed to trade rumors, as Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post reports. While that’s hardly any guarantee, multiple rival GMs say they have received the impression that Colorado will not move its most recognizable player this winter, Jon Heyman tweets. Nevertheless, the recent signing of Gerardo Parra still seemingly leaves the club with good cause to move an outfielder. If it isn’t CarGo, of course, then the two obvious candidates would be Charlie Blackmon and Corey Dickerson.
  • Chances are “slim” that the Cubs will make another major addition before the season, president of baseball operations Theo Epstein said today, as Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times reports on Twitter. We’ve heard plenty of suggestions of ways Chicago could look to add yet more impact after an already-busy offseason, but it certainly doesn’t appear as if the club really needs to do anything to its roster at this point.
  • The Reds are still working on various trade scenarios, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick reports (via TwitLonger). Jay Bruce seems the most plausible trade piece, Crasnick indicates, but his market is complicated by Colorado’s trio of possible left-handed bats for sale. And he arguably hasn’t performed to the standard of his rather expensive contract in recent years. “Once you start down this road, it is important to continue with the tough decisions and not pull up in the middle of the project,” said GM Dick Williams. “That being said, we cannot force deals so I cannot guarantee we will do more.’’
  • New Phillies hurler Mark Appel has a lot to prove, Crasnick writes. But the 24-year-old says he is determined and able to live up to his former billing as a top-end pitching prospect.

Angels Notes: Santiago, Richards, Wilson, CarGo, Blackmon

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Part of the reason that the Angels acted quickly in avoiding arbitration with left-hander Hector Santiago was due to trade interest they’ve received in the 28-year-old, reports MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez (links to Twitter). While there isn’t one specific trade scenario on which the Angels were focused, the team wanted to eliminate as many variables as possible in order to simplify discussions with interested parties. Gonzalez adds that there’s nothing imminent on Santiago at this time. Coming off 180 2/3 innings of 3.59 ERA, 8.1 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 with two years of club control remaining and a reasonable $5MM salary for the upcoming season, it’s easy to see why some clubs would be intrigued by Santiago. Then again, he also led the AL in home runs allowed (29) and recorded just a 29.9 percent ground-ball rate. Metrics like FIP (4.77), xFIP (5.00) and SIERA (4.50) are considerably less optimistic when viewing Santiago than traditional metrics like ERA, although it’s worth noting that his bottom-line results have always outpaced his peripheral stats in the Majors; Santiago has a 3.55 ERA in his career while the three aforementioned ERA estimators value his production in the 4.29 to 4.71 range.

Here’s more on the Halos…

  • The Angels and ace Garrett Richards have been working to avoid arbitration, per Gonzalez, but the two sides still have “a ways to go,” he hears. The two sides will exchange arbitration numbers on Friday (assuming a deal doesn’t come together quickly before that date) and have another five or six weeks to negotiate in an effort to avoid a hearing.
  • While there’s been plenty of speculation linking left-hander C.J. Wilson to the Rockies in various trade scenarios, such a trade almost certainly won’t happen. MLB.com’s Thomas Harding reports (via Twitter) that one of the eight teams to which Wilson can block a trade under the limited no-trade protection that comes in the final season of his five-year contract is the Rockies. Wilson could, of course, agree to waive that right, although it’s difficult to envision any pitcher — let alone one that is coming off surgery and entering a contract year — would green-light a trade to the hitters’ haven that is Coors Field.
  • The Angels have interest in Rockies outfielder Charlie Blackmon, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register tweets. While Fletcher noted as much yesterday, he adds today that the Halos do have some concerns about Blackmon’s splits. It’s not clear if Fletcher is referring to Blackmon’s platoon splits, home/road splits or both, but each dramatic split would be an understandable reason for pause. Blackmon has mashed at a .334/.386/.501 clip while playing at home over the course of his career but has mustered just a .241/.283/.370 slash away from Coors Field. And, while his platoon splits aren’t as pronounced, he has a .729 OPS against lefties compared to a .788 mark against righties in his career, and the discrepancy between those two numbers has grown in recent seasons. Fletcher also notes in his tweet that he is “99 percent sure” that the Angels won’t land Carlos Gonzalez in a trade due to the money remaining on Gonzalez’s deal. The 30-year-old Gonzalez is owed $37MM over the next two years and carries an $11.4MM average annual value (the number which counts against the luxury tax) on his seven-year, $80MM contract.
  • Mike DiGiovanna of the L.A. Times writes that the Halos are about $5MM away from the luxury tax barrier, and owner Arte Moreno has yet to indicate any sort of willingness to exceed that $189MM threshold. The Angels haven’t had “substantive” talks about the Rockies’ trio of potentially available outfielders, a source tells DiGiovanna, who implies that an impact upgrade over the platoon of Daniel Nava and Craig Gentry seems unlikely. “We talk about players who are still available in free agency or who might be available in trades,” said GM Billy Eppler of his talks with Moreno. “We have our conversations, and that’s it. We’re discussing all of our options all of the time.” Eppler declined comment on specific players but told DiGiovanna that he would “of course” be satisfied if this ends up being the group he takes to Spring Training: “There are a lot of pieces on this team that were there last year until Game 162 scratching, clawing and fighting to keep themselves in it and were on the doorstep of a playoff appearance.”

Latest On Trade Interest In Rockies’ Outfielders

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With the news that the Rockies have agreed to sign Gerardo Parra to join an already heavily-left-handed outfield mix, it seems increasingly likely that Colorado will strike a deal involving one of its current players. We’ve heard of wide-ranging possible matches for Carlos Gonzalez, Charlie Blackmon, and Corey Dickerson, any of whom could in theory be moved.

Here are the latest rumors on the Colorado outfield situation now that Parra is in the fold:

  • The Tigers have also been in contact with the Rockies regarding their outfielders, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. No deal between the two sides is close, however, and it’s unclear which of Blackmon, Dickerson or Gonzalez intrigues Detroit the most at this juncture.

Earlier Updates

  • The Orioles are still participating in “ongoing trade talks” with the Rockies regarding outfielders, Jon Morosi of FOX Sports reports on Twitter. Baltimore has been connected previously to Gonzalez, though it seems plausible to think that any of the Rockies’ outfield trade chips could hold interest.
  • While the Angels have long seemed a plausible trade partner with Colorado, they have not been in contact on outfielders for several weeks, according to Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times (Twitter link). Los Angeles has previously been called at least a hypothetical match on Blackmon, in particular. The team is still looking for a corner outfielder, though it seems possible the club could run out a platoon of Craig Gentry and Daniel Nava if it can’t line up an upgrade at a reasonable price.
  • It’s interesting to wonder whether Colorado has already decided which (if any) of its outfielders it intends to move. There are several considerations at play, of course, but one simple truth is that the club needs someone to play center field next year. Blackmon took most of the reps up the middle last year, so parting with him could be extra painful — unless the team simply plans to use Parra there. But he has seen declining metrics that suggest a more challenging assignment may not be the best idea. And while both Gonzalez and Dickerson have appeared in center previously, neither looks like a good bet to receive regular time in that spot. I’d add, also, that the outfield market has changed quite a bit in recent weeks. Clubs like the Royals (Alex Gordon), Giants (Denard Span), and Nationals (Ben Revere) have made additions that either take them out of the market altogether or significantly reduce their need.

Rockies Sign Gerardo Parra

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The Rockies have officially announced a three-year, $27.5MM deal with outfielder Gerardo Parra. The contract includes a club option for a fourth year at $12MM, which comes with a $1.5MM buyout.

Parra, a client of Octagon, will earn $26MM over the first three years of the deal. He gets $8MM for the coming season, $8MM again in 2017, and then $10MM in the final season.

In Parra, who’ll turn 29 early in the season, the Rox will pick up a young, athletic player whose performance has been somewhat difficult to judge. As I explained in late August of last year, a huge first-half performance (combined with his age) made a four-year guarantee and/or ten-plus-million AAV seem plausible at one point.

But Parra tailed off down the stretch, ending the year with a .291/.328/.452 slash. That’s still good, of course, but is hardly the breakout that had seemed in the offing as of late summer. And he’s been more of an average to slightly-below-average offensive producer for most of his career. It’s worth noting, too, that the left-handed-hitting Parra has also tended to carry significant platoon splits.

It’s at least as hard to peg Parra from a defensive perspective. He became something of a sabermetric darling back in 2013, when he turned in a monster year with the glove (29.5 UZR, 41 DRS). That had followed several years of above-average metrics, seeming to suggest that Parra was one of the game’s best corner outfielders (if not also a good center fielder as well). But both of those major defensive rating systems have identified a significant drop-off in each of the last two seasons, with Parra rating as a well-below-average performer last season.

Ultimately, the contract comes in just shy of the three-year, $27MM prediction made by MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes before the hot stove kicked into gear this winter. While Parra always seemed to occupy a nice niche in this market, drawing wide appeal with his sturdy reputation and lower price tag, it is still notable that he was able to meet expectations despite the fact that the position-player market has been slow to develop.

Obviously, it’s an interesting strategy for Colorado to pursue, as the team could certainly have relied on its in-house options for the coming season. Parra will join a depth chart that already features left-handed-hitting outfielders Carlos Gonzalez, Charlie Blackmon, and Corey Dickerson, possibly suggesting that one of those players could end up on the move. Certainly, it’s not a minor signing for this organization, which hadn’t given out a deal of this magnitude since the pre-2012 Michael Cuddyer contract.

Signing a replacement for one of the team’s incumbent bats, in concert with a trade to acquire pitching, has long seemed an intriguing possibility, and it could be that GM Jeff Bridich is employing just such an approach here. He addressed that general concept in a recent interview on the MLBTR Podcast (at about the 13-minute mark), saying that it could be “part of a strategy” but noting that it’s still “incumbent upon us to know when a good baseball trade is a good baseball trade” — regardless of which direction the pitchers and position players were headed.

Wilmer Reina of Diario la Verdad (Twitter links) and Jon Heyman (via Twitter) first reported the signing and its essential terms. Ken Rosenthal added the annual breakdown on Twitter.

Market Notes: Davis, Parra, Angels, Span

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Scott Boras is “pushing to create options” for his power-hitting client, Chris Davis, according to ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (via Twitter). Per Olney, Boras has been “selling” teams on Davis’s ability to be an everyday corner outfielder as well as a first baseman. We’ve heard that suggestion previously, of course — including from Boras himself — but it’s certainly interesting to hear that the super-agent is still pressing the concept this late in the offseason.

Here’s more on the free agent market:

  • We’ve heard that the Rockies have continued interest in Gerardo Parra, with Jon Heyman saying yesterday that the team is pushing to add him. Indeed, says Chris Cotillo of SB Nation, Colorado is aggressively pursuing the veteran outfielder. (Twitter links.) The Nationals and Angels are among the other teams that are at least dabbling in Parra’s market, he adds. Obviously, a signing by Colorado would be doubly interesting, as it could suggest that the team is lining up a deal involving one of its incumbents.
  • Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register, on the other hand, hears that the Angels are “still not really involved” in the top of the free agent outfield market. (Twitter link.) That includes Parra as well as players like Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes, and Dexter Fowler. Fletcher adds that he sees a trade for a lower-cost option, such as Charlie Blackmon of the Rockies, to be a more realistic outcome.
  • Denard Span said in his introductory press conference today that he feels good and is well on track to be at full speed this spring, as CSN Bay Area’s Alex Pavlovic reports. He chose San Francisco, per Boras (who is also his agent), because the team met his three-year ask and were “a priority because of the fit for them and the fit for Denard.” Club CEO Larry Baer, meanwhile, said that “Denard has been on our radar for a long time.“
  • Span drew real interest from the Orioles, according to Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com, but Baltimore was never going to guarantee more than a single season. Unsurprisingly, the O’s weren’t alone in that regard, as Boras says that fully eleven teams had interest in Span on a one-year arrangement, as Andrew Baggarly of the Mercury News reports.

NL Notes: Phillies, Dodgers, Rockies, Cardinals

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The Phillies only hired new GM Matt Klentak in late October, but he’s already been through a Winter Meetings and executed a big trade (that of Ken Giles to the Astros). In a Q+A, he tells MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki that he’s happy with the Giles deal (in which the Phillies received Vincent Velasquez and Mark Appel), and says that as the Phillies continue their rebuild, they’re confident that they’ll be able to supplement their growing collection of young pitching with hitters acquired from outside the organization. “Hitters generally regard our park as a good place to play,” he says. “I know that our ownership is very committed — and will be in the future — to bringing in the right players and the top-caliber players to help us.” Here’s more from the National League.

  • The Dodgers still haven’t added any top-flight starting pitching to offset the loss of Zack Greinke, but president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman says he is now happy with the organization’s depth, Bill Plunkett writes for Baseball America. “This offseason is different than last in that going into next year, we feel much better about our pitching depth that will be in (Triple-A) Oklahoma City,” says Friedman. “We have a number of guys that we like that will be there and that is a big difference for us next year compared to this year just in terms of the depth that we’ll have on hand.” Oklahoma City’s rotation will likely feature top prospects Julio Urias and Jose De Leon, along with 40-man members Jharel Cotton and Ross Stripling.
  • As FOX Sports’ Jon Morosi tweeted earlier this week, the Cardinals have spoken with the Rockies about a possible trade involving at least one Rockies outfielder. Benjamin Hochman of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (and formerly of the Denver Post) writes that it’s probably more realistic that the Cardinals could pursue Corey Dickerson or Charlie Blackmon rather than Carlos Gonzalez, even though both Dickerson and Blackmon have negatives (for Dickerson, a weak arm; for Blackmon, poor numbers away from Coors Field). Hochman guesses that the Rockies’ end of a potential deal would likely begin with first baseman Matt Adams.

Crasnick On The Outfield Market

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With Jason Heyward finally off the board, the rest of the outfield market can begin to shift into place, writes Jerry Crasnick of ESPN. Here’s a sampling of what Crasnick sees shaping up around the league:

  • The Royals would like to bring back free agent Alex Gordon at the right price, but they could also jump into the market for one of the Rockies outfielders. Per Crasnick, Carlos Gonzalez would require a serious haul – perhaps one or both of Raul Mondesi or Miguel Almonte. He doesn’t believe Charlie Blackmon or Corey Dickerson would require either player. I’m not sure I agree with this assessment. While Gonzalez is definitely the more recognizable name, Dickerson and Blackmon cost less, are younger, and come equipped with more club control. It’s also arguable as to which of the trio is expected to be best over the next few years. In any event, with the Royals window wide open, they do match up well for one of the Rockies outfielders.
  • If the Royals fall short of Gordon or a trade asset, an outfielder like Denard Span, Gerardo Parra, or Dexter Fowler should help to keep the pressure off Jarrod Dyson. All three would cost substantially less than Gordon, but they also carry assorted warts including platoon issues and checkered injury histories.
  • The Angels and Giants would like a quality outfielder, but they have multiple positions to fill with limited resources. If the Giants go in on another starter like Mike Leake, they’ll be out on top outfielders like Justin Upton. Similarly, the Angels still need to address second base and left field. Their barren farm system will force them to use the free agent market.
  • The Reds have only received a couple of feelers on outfielder Jay Bruce. Entering his age 29 season, Bruce has been a below average hitter in each of the last two seasons. This despite hitting in one of the friendliest parks for hitters. While I do think a team will eventually roll the dice on Bruce, it won’t be until after more quality outfielders leave the marketplace.

Latest On Nationals Outfield Search

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Nationals GM Mike Rizzo was disappointed to fall short of signing Jason Heyward, tweets William Ladson of MLB.com. The exact terms of their offer to Heyward are unknown, but it’s thought that they were prepared to guarantee at least $200MM. The club still covets a left-handed outfielder.

Here’s the latest on their search along with other Nats notes:

  • The Nationals are in on Rockies outfielders Carlos Gonzalez and Charlie Blackmon, tweets Pete Kerzel of MASNsports.com. Gonzalez and Blackmon figure to command a hefty return. The oft-injured Gonzalez, 30, played in 153 games last season. He caught fire in the second half of the season with a .285/.337/.638 triple slash. He also reached a career best 40 home runs. Prior to the second half hot streak, he had suffered through a season and a half lost to injuries and below average production. Gonzalez has two years and $34MM remaining on his contract. Blackmon, by comparison, is projected to earn just $4.5MM in his first of three arbitration seasons. The 29-year-old is coming off a solid 2.1 WAR season (.287/.347/.450 slash).
  • The club has remained in touch with free agent Denard Span too, tweets Ladson. Rizzo wants to confirm Span is healthy before making a commitment. Span’s agent, Scott Boras, is said to expect a multi-year contract.
  • As for the bullpen, the Nationals have ended their pursuit of Aroldis Chapman, per Ladson (on Twitter). It goes without saying at this point, but the Reds will have to wait for the league to rule on Chapman’s future before they can re-market him. In my opinion, and in light of the criticism received by the Baltimore Ravens, Dallas Cowboys, and other NFL franchises related to domestic abuse cases, some MLB clubs may be out on Chapman at any price.

Outfield Notes: Royals, Rockies, Ozuna, Ruggiano, Nava

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We’ve been waiting for the outfield market to kick into high gear, and it seems set to do just that with Jason Heyward reportedly going off the board to the Cubs. As ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick writes, the action is now on Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes, and Alex Gordon. But a solid group of other players — including Dexter Fowler, Denard Span, Gerardo Parra, and Austin Jackson — is also still available. And t

Here’s the latest:

  • The Royals have had contact with the Rockies on their three potentially-available outfielders, per Crasnick. It seems that Carlos Gonzalez carries by far the highest asking price, per Crasnick’s report, but the other two Colorado outfielders reportedly on the block — Charlie Blackmon and Corey Dickerson — are cheaper and have greater control rights. In particular, Dickerson has put up some huge offensive numbers and won’t even hit arbitration until next year. While he missed time last year with plantar fasciitis and fractured ribs, he still looks to be a highly intriguing asset.
  • Kansas City still is looking at Gordon as its first option, though, Crasnick adds. The club would probably turn to the next tier of free agency if it can’t pull off a Gordon re-signing or a trade. MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan notes on Twitter that the team has “cast a wide net” in its search for outfield help.
  • It seems less and less likely that the Marlins will end up dealing center fielder Marcell Ozuna this winter, as Crasnick tweets that the club has “aimed high” in its negotiations on the youngster. Miami has sought quality, young MLB pitchers — he mentions Yordano Ventura, Taijuan Walker, and Danny Salazar — and it’s not clear whether it will be amenable to settling for less.
  • The Rangers have interest in free agent outfielder Justin Ruggiano as a right-handed depth piece, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports. Ruggiano is a very tough out for opposing southpaws, creating a potential fit with the heavily left-handed Texas lineup.
  • Outfielder/first baseman Daniel Nava appears close to striking a deal with a team other than the Rays, despite Tampa Bay’s interest, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Nava, soon to turn 33, had a tough season last year, but at his best is a high-OBP switch-hitter.

NL East Notes: Inciarte, Storen, Blackmon, Span, Colon, Braves

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The Braves’ impressive haul for right-hander Shelby Miller is one one of the biggest storylines of the past week, but there are already rumblings about one of the key pieces of the deal; Ender Inciarte has drawn a lot of interest since the trade, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (Twitter link), who adds that the Cubs are one team that has inquired. Rosenthal reports that they haven’t engaged in any type of serious trade discussions, although ESPN’s Jayson Stark tweets that he got the sense that the Braves are at least open to the idea of flipping Inciarte to another team in a further trade. One executive told Stark that as many as 12 teams have inquired on Inciarte, though he does add that rival teams don’t consider a trade to be particularly likely.

Here’s the latest from the NL East…

  • The Twins have reached out to the Nationals to inquire on right-hander Drew Storen, reports James Wagner of the Washington Post (Twitter link). There’s nothing on the horizon at this point, however, he adds. Still, Minnesota has been prominently linked to Storen in previous seasons, so it’ll be interesting to see if they take that interest to another level this winter, when Storen is said to be available in trades.
  • Sticking with the Nats, Pete Kerzel of MASNsports.com tweets that Washington has talked with the Rockies about outfielder Charlie Blackmon, but the asking price on the 29-year-old center fielder is said to be quite high. Corey Dickerson could be in play, too, Kerzel notes, though he doesn’t specify that the Nationals have spoken to Colorado about him, specifically.
  • The Mets still have interest in both Denard Span and Gerardo Parra, reports Newsday’s Marc Carig, and the club hasn’t completely ruled out a multi-year deal for either player if it proves necessary (Twitter link). A multi-year deal would seem to be imperative in talks with either player, as Parra reportedly has three-year offers in hand already, while agent Scott Boras dismissed the notion of a one-year deal for Span yesterday when asked by MLBTR’s Zach Links.
  • The Mets have had preliminary talks with right-hander Bartolo Colon’s camp about a reunion, tweets Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. While Colon probably wouldn’t hold down a rotation spot all season in Queens barring an injury to one of the Mets’ excellent young starters, he could be a valuable stopgap early in the year as Zack Wheeler progresses in his Tommy John rehab.
  • Braves president John Hart and GM John Coppolella explained the team’s rebuilding process to MLB.com’s Mark Bowman while at the Winter Meetings in Nashville. Coppolella likened the rebuild to constructing a skyscraper, stressing the importance of building from the ground up in an an effort to deliver a sustainable run of success to Braves fans. He added that building a deep core of talent will help to prevent second-half collapses like the Braves have endured in recent seasons. Hart called many of the trades made by Atlanta “painful” but explained that each has been made with the same goal in mind: constructing a perennial World Series contender.
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