Headlines

Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

Christian Encarnacion-Strand

The Reds’ Less Heralded Breakout Rookie

By | at

The Reds are MLB’s most surprising first-place team heading into the All-Star Break. Cincinnati is nine games above .500 and a game clear of the Brewers in the NL Central. They’re 24-12 since the start of June, largely thanks to an influx of rookie talent.

Elly De La Cruz and Matt McLain have gotten plenty of attention, while Andrew Abbott has quickly ascended to the role of staff ace with Nick Lodolo and Hunter Greene injured. Their midseason promotions have deservedly come with plenty of fanfare. They’re not the only rookies in Cincinnati having quality seasons, though.

Spencer Steer, acquired from the Twins alongside Christian Encarnacion-Strand for Tyler Mahle at last summer’s deadline, first reached the majors in September. While he struggled in that 28-game cameo, the Reds made clear Steer would get a chance to play regularly out of the gate. Cincinnati released Mike Moustakas in January and made Steer their Opening Day third baseman.

The 25-year-old wasn’t long for the hot corner. By the end of April, the Reds had kicked him across the diamond to first base. That put a lot of pressure on the former third-round pick to produce offensively. He’s done just that, finishing the year’s unofficial first half with a .277/.367/.477 batting line over 376 plate appearances. The right-handed hitter has connected on 14 home runs, walked at an excellent 11.2% rate, and kept his strikeouts to a modest 18.9% clip.

Steer has demonstrated a well-rounded offensive profile. He rarely chases pitches outside the strike zone. He’s making contact at an above-average rate. When he puts the bat on the ball, he tends to make solid contact. Just over 40% of Steer’s batted balls have been hit hard (an exit velocity of 95 MPH or greater), a mark that’s a couple percentage points above league average.

Prospect evaluators have generally suggested Steer’s raw power potential is fringe-average. That’s atypical for a first baseman, but he’s shown just enough pop and a knack for getting the ball in the air. Steer hits a number of fly-balls, and while they’re not hit with overwhelming power — his 92.2 MPH average exit velocity on fly-balls is exactly league average — it has been sufficient. That’s particularly true at Cincinnati’s hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park; Steer is slugging .497 with a .204 ISO at home and .461 with a .197 ISO on the road.

That production has been enough to solidify Steer as an everyday presence in David Bell’s lineup. That came mostly at first base in the early summer. He’s seen a little more left field time of late with Joey Votto now healthy. His initial third base position has essentially become De La Cruz’s domain.

Coincidentally, Steer’s excellent start has probably held off Encarnacion-Strand’s debut. The latter is mashing at a .321/.392/.620 clip with 20 homers in 65 games for Triple-A Louisville. He’s done nothing but rake since joining the professional ranks as a fourth-round pick in 2021. On many clubs, Encarnacion-Strand would already be in the majors.

There simply hasn’t been room in Cincinnati. The Reds aren’t going to call up the 23-year-old corner infielder to serve as a bench bat. Votto has been great since returning from the injured list. De La Cruz is entrenched at hot corner with McLain at shortstop. Steer’s presence in the first base/corner outfield/designated hitter mix means there aren’t many at-bats to go around, barring injury.

That’s a nice short-term “problem” to have. Encarnacion-Strand figures to get a crack before too long as injuries necessitate. From a broader perspective, the Mahle trade added a pair of promising infielders to the upper levels of the Cincinnati organization. It looks like a massive coup for the Reds.

Unfortunately for Minnesota, they got very little out of the deal. Injuries kept Mahle to just four starts down the stretch last season. He started five games this year before a May Tommy John surgery ended his season and likely his time as a Twin. The right-hander is headed to free agency and could look for a buy-low two-year deal to finish his rehab with an eye towards a late-2024 return and full ’25 season.

Cincinnati controls Steer through the 2028 campaign. He won’t reach arbitration until after the ’25 season. Encarnacion-Strand is controllable through at least 2029, depending on the time of his MLB promotion and whether he’s subsequently optioned back to the minors. Left-hander Steve Hajjar, the third piece in the Mahle trade, has already been flipped to the Guardians as one of two minor leaguers for outfielder Will Benson.

With Steer contributing at the big league level, the Mahle swap has already helped the Reds emerge as playoff contenders quicker than most had anticipated. They can take the opposite approach to this summer’s deadline, likely by acquiring pitching help.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Reds Open To Buying, Spending At Trade Deadline

By | at

While the Reds only moved back to the .500 mark after yesterday’s 2-1 victory over the Astros, Cincinnati’s 35-35 record puts them only a half-game behind the Brewers for first place in the NL Central.  Considering how the Reds were 21-29 just on May 25, the team’s surge over the last few weeks has included both a five-game winning streak and the Reds’ ongoing six-game winning streak.

Such highly-touted prospects as Elly De La Cruz and Matt McLain have sparked the lineup, and Andrew Abbott has started his MLB career with 17 2/3 scoreless innings (setting a modern record in the process).  Since the youngsters are contributing already and the NL Central seems to be wide open, the Reds could be in the unexpected position of finding themselves looking to add at the trade deadline.

To this end, general manager Nick Krall told reporters (including MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon and The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal) that the front office is prepared to act if Cincinnati remains in contention.

“If we’ve got a chance to make the playoffs, we try to make the playoffs any way we can.  It’s not about getting top farm systems.  That’s great, but at the same time, you’re trying to make moves to sustain winning on your big league club and figure out what that is,” Krall said.  As to whether or not ownership will increase payroll to accommodate a deadline move, “there’s nothing I see that is going to impede us from making an acquisition,” Krall said.

As per Roster Resource, the Reds’ payroll sits just shy of $83MM, with Joey Votto accounting for $25MM of that figure.  The team topped the $130MM mark (putting the Reds about in the middle of the league in payroll size) during the 2019-21 seasons, as Cincinnati’s previous rebuilding process saw the team augment its young talent with such notable free agents as Nick Castellanos and Mike Moustakas.  The result was a wild card postseason appearance in 2020, but the pandemic seemed to curb ownership’s desire for any more spending, leading the front office to start cutting payroll and rebuilding anew, resulting in a dismal 62-100 season in 2022.

It’s probably safe to assume that the Reds aren’t going on a spending spree at the deadline, both because of the past history of modest payrolls, and because the club has so much young talent that it doesn’t want to block any positions with veterans.  However, as Rosenthal noted, Cincinnati’s prospect depth is naturally also a big advantage in swinging trades.  Obviously the likes of De La Cruz or McLain aren’t going anywhere, but the Reds could conceivably dangle some minor leaguers who are further away from their MLB debuts in order to land some win-now help.  Offering a higher caliber of prospect might also entice a rival team to eat all or most of the money owed on a veteran player’s remaining contact, thus allowing the Reds to sidestep a major payroll increase.

Despite Abbott’s early success, starting pitching is the most obvious need for the Reds.  Hunter Greene and Ben Lively have performed decently, but Graham Ashcraft has struggled and is currently on the 15-day injured list, while Nick Lodolo (who also wasn’t pitching well) is out until August due to a stress reaction in his tibia.

Krall said that Ashcraft and Lodolo could provide some pitching help, and implied that the Reds might be looking just for rental players for further rotation adds.  “Anything else you do, you’re doing it for the short term but you also want to add quality guys if possible.  You’d have to find the right match to make that trade,” the GM said.

Another creative route would be for the Reds to perhaps buy and sell in equal measure, trading some veteran players just to clear roster space for all of the youngsters that are knocking on the door for more playing time.  Injuries have created some openings for the prospects, as Votto has yet to play this season and Wil Myers and Jake Fraley are currently on the 10-day IL.  Nick Senzel was only just activated off the 10-day IL yesterday, and if everyone is healthy at the same time, the Reds simply won’t have enough at-bats to go around.

Cincinnati’s outfield has more question marks than the infield, which is why Christian Encarnacion-Strand has been getting a tryout as a corner outfielder at Triple-A.  Considered to be the next top prospect on the verge of his big league debut, Encarnacion-Strand is a corner infielder by trade, yet the Reds are well stocked for first and third base options (i.e. Spencer Steer, De La Cruz, Senzel, Votto, Myers, Kevin Newman).  Encarnacion-Strand’s outfield work has thus far consisted of one game each as a left fielder and right fielder, but if he can provide at least passable glovework on the grass, it will create a quicker path to playing time.  Hitting-wise, CES seems more than ready for the Show, with a whopping .345/.413/.691 slash line over 218 PA at Triple-A Louisville this season.

Big Hype Prospects: Encarnacion-Strand, Lawlar, Perez, Merrill, Amador

By | at

Last week, I described how the Reds might muck about with Elly De La Cruz’s service time – if they chose to do so. Instead, they promptly promoted him. It’s always a relief to see deserving prospects promoted in a timely manner.

To date, De La Cruz is batting .364/.481/.636 in 27 plate appearances with a home run and three steals. His 37 percent strikeout rate is the lone blemish. Like the rookie version of Fernando Tatis Jr., De La Cruz has the capacity to perform despite a high strikeout rate.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Christian Encarnacion-Strand, 23, 1B/3B, CIN (AAA)
199 PA, 17 HR, .362/.427/.734

Next up in the Reds developmental pipeline is Encarnacion-Strand. Known as CES to those who like to write about him without using 28 characters, the powerful corner infielder has punished opposing pitchers to the tune of .542/.633/1.042 (1.675 OPS) in his last six games. He hit seven singles, three doubles, and three home runs over the span.

There are aspects of his game that can temper enthusiasm. There’s a risk his plate approach and high swinging strike rates could lead to high strikeout rates. At this point, he’s utterly eviscerated Triple-A. It’s time to see if those concerns are warranted. The Reds have a minor issue to resolve when it comes to selecting CES’s promotion date. Joey Votto’s rehab will end in about 12 days. His recovery in Triple-A is progressing at a slow pace. Fitting all three of CES, Votto, and Spencer Steer in the regular lineup could prove challenging – and would cost Tyler Stephenson playing time too. Such impediments shouldn’t block Encarnacion-Strand for much longer.

Jordan Lawlar, 20, SS, ARI (AA)
215 PA, 8 HR, 15 SB, .238/.335/.443

Considered one of the top athletes in the minors, Lawlar’s time in Double-A hasn’t been all that impressive. However, in the last week, he’s hitting .407/.429/.704 in 28 plate appearances. He has a 1.029 OPS over his last 73 plate appearances. It would seem he’s made an adjustment. Reports from public sources note concerns about his hit tool. Every other aspect of his game is expected to be above average. Lawlar is the penthouse apartment of prospects – he has a high floor and higher ceiling. Presently, he is on pace to debut in 2024.

Eury Perez, 20, SP, MIA (MLB)
29 IP, 9.31 K/9, 4.03 BB/9, 2.17 ERA

Perez is a big part of the Marlins recent success. Already 3-1 in just six starts, Perez hasn’t missed a beat since skipping from Double-A to the Majors in mid-May. His only truly sub-par outing occurred at Coors Field. While ERA-estimators (4.34 FIP, 4.68 xFIP) suggest he’s had some luck with run prevention, this is still an impressive performance from a young 20-year-old (he has a mid-April birthday).

A peek under the hood suggests Perez still has a thing or two to learn about using his repertoire. He’s regularly using all four of his pitches. Hitters have performed well against his 97.5-mph heater, but they’ve struggled versus the offspeed stuff. Perez features a “big” fastball. It shouldn’t perform as a below-average offering. It’s possible he’s trying to make pitches that would work in Double-A but not the Majors. As he acclimates, I expect his fastball to grade out better.

Jackson Merrill, 20, SS, SDP (A+)
206 PA, 4 HR, 8 SB, .257/.296/.387

The third-highest ranked “Jackson” on most prospect lists, Merrill was a contender for Top 10 prospect status over the offseason. He’s backed up a bit in the early going. The Midwest League happens to be one of the more difficult hitting environments in the minors. While the above triple-slash probably looks bad, it’s only six percent below the league average. Merrill is a hit-over-power prospect who produces high-quality, low-angle contact. The left-handed hitter draws a Michael Brantley comp from the folks at FanGraphs. Though injuries have reduced his developmental opportunities, he remains on pace to debut by his age 22 season.

Adael Amador, 20, 2B, COL (A+)
228 PA, 8 HR, 12 SB, .306/.392/.510

Last season, Amador profiled as a flexible utility fielder. While there’s never been any question about his feel for contact, the quality of that contact often raised eyebrows in a bad way. Amador looks “small” on the field, and that likely colored scouting reports. He’s strengthened over the last year to the point where he’s no longer seen as an ideal utility candidate. He’ll likely plant at second base for the long haul – especially with defensively adept Ezequiel Tovar ahead of him at shortstop. The switch-hitting Amador still has adjustments to make if he’s to make full use of spacious Coors Field. He taps most of his contact on the ground, though the quality of said contact has continually improved over time. Amador has more walks than strikeouts in his professional career and is running a 4.4 percent swinging strike rate this season. He should reach Double-A before much longer.

Three More

Andrew Painter, PHI (20): Painter was on pace to debut as a 19-year-old when a sprained UCL ended his Spring Training bid. He threw a 20-pitch bullpen on Saturday. The coming weeks mark an important step in his recovery.

Marcelo Mayer, BOS (20): Mayer’s time in Double-A isn’t going so hot. The shortstop is batting .154/.227/.333 in 45 plate appearances. A recent report on FanGraphs noted a mechanical shortcoming similar to Jarred Kelenic and Spencer Torkelson – namely, an issue with lifting balls low in the zone.

Connor Norby, BAL (23): There’s no question the Orioles have a lot of infield depth. I’m often asked whom I believe they’ll trade from that depth. Norby is my answer. The short right-handed hitter doesn’t have the utility of others in the system. He’s Major League adjacent and primed for a regular role within the next year. However, he profiles more like a core performer than a high-ceiling star.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

Big Hype Prospects: Abbott, Brown, Encarnacion-Strand, Povich, Sheehan

By | at

With so many clubs needing to plunge into the minors for pitching reinforcements, let’s put more attention on this next wave of arms.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Andrew Abbott, 24, SP, CIN (AAA)
31.1 IP, 13.21 K/9, 4.02 BB/9, 3.16 ERA

Abbott walked all over the Southern League earlier this season, posting a 1.15 ERA with 20.68 K/9 and 1.72 BB/9 in three starts. The Reds got him out of there in a hurry – possibly because the pre-tacked ball used in that league was obscuring aspects of his development. Since arriving in Triple-A, Abbott has reverted to a good-not-great trajectory and there’s still risk he’ll eventually land in the bullpen. From a stuff perspective, he has a starter’s repertoire. Like most young pitchers, Abbott’s command can be inconsistent and mostly draws negative comments. There’s reason for concern about home run prevention, especially at Great American Ball Park.

Ben Brown, 23, SP, CHC (AAA)
24 IP, 13.50 K/9, 4.50 BB/9, 3.75 ERA

Brown was acquired from the Phillies in the David Robertson trade. Like Abbott, Brown dominated the Southen League (20 IP, 0.45 ERA) en route to a quick promotion. He’s continued to miss bats, albeit with a couple red flags. Per a statistical source, hitters have averaged a 91.3-mph exit velocity against Brown in Triple-A. It’s a small sample concern for now. Inconsistencies with his command remain on display, and the relief risk is palpable. While his fastball, slider, and curve are all viewed as above-average offerings, the lack of command and changeup are traits of pitchers who eventually land in the bullpen. We’ve seen plenty of guys succeed with non-traditional repertoires lately, but they usually rely on some sort of unicorn trait. I’m unaware of Brown fitting this mold.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand, 23, 1B/3B, CIN (AAA)
146 PA, 13 HR, .346/.384/.721

Prospects like CES tend to create a lot of arguments among the general public. He was one of the top minor league performers in 2022, and he’s repeating the effort this season. However, poor plate discipline and a hefty swinging-strike rate introduce considerable risk. There’s also doubt about his ability to stick at third base. Cincinnati has already conceded this by using him 17 games at first, seven at DH, and seven at third. Few first basemen are this ill-disciplined. Of qualified first basemen, only Brandon Drury, Gio Urshela, and Ryan Mountcastle have walk rates below 6.0 percent. Drury and Urshela aren’t really first basemen. On the other hand, CES punishes baseballs when he connects, averaging 92.2-mph on contact. If he can mount any sort of resistance to the inevitable bevy of breaking balls out of the zone, he could develop into a legitimate 40-homer threat.

Cade Povich, 23, SP, BAL (AA)
40 IP, 13.73 K/9, 3.83 BB/9, 4.50 ERA

Acquired in the Jorge Lopez trade, Povich probably deserves inclusion in the latter portion of Top 100 lists. The southpaw doesn’t have any overwhelming traits, but the total package resembles many adequate left-handers around the league. Povich’s basic stats suggest cause for both optimism and skepticism. His 2.20 FIP and 2.47 xFIP are a sight better than his 4.50 ERA – largely due to a .356 BABIP and 62.2 percent strand rate. In the minors, such stats can be more than the “luck” we generally attribute them to in the Majors, and Povich also had a poor strand rate in 2022. It could indicate issues pitching out of the stretch. I’ve reached out to a couple contacts for their thoughts.

Worth mentioning, the Eastern League is not using the pretacked ball.

Emmet Sheehan, 23, SP, LAD (AA)
44 IP, 15.55 K/9, 3.68 BB/9, 1.64 ERA

The Texas League also isn’t using the pretacked ball. Sheehan started to generate hype late last season, culminating in a successful stint in the Arizona Fall League. Sheehan is overwhelming the Double-A competition as evidenced by a 20.1 percent swinging strike rate, .176 BABIP, and 97% strand rate. Such figures indicate luck, but they also speak of an ability to miss bats with impunity. The star of the show is a double-plus changeup. A prospect watcher tipped me off last season about changeup artists – they tend to overperform in the minors. At the time, we were discussing Grayson Rodriguez. Like the other pitchers we’ve covered today, Sheehan’s command sparks comments about a future in the bullpen. Scouts also seem to dislike his mechanics – he tends to fall off hard to the first base line. I tend to ignore such comments. Goofy mechanics may (or may not) increase injury risk, but they also lead to unusual looks for hitters.

Three More

Matt McLain, CIN (23): McLain, who we discussed in this section last week, has rushed out to a heady .380/.456/.600 performance in 57 Major League plate appearances. Red flags include a .531 BABIP, modest exit velocities, and 28.1 percent strikeout rate. However, McLain is showing power, advanced plate discipline, and a high rate of swinging contact (7.3 percent SwStr%).

Zach Dezenzo, HOU (23): Although not yet on the radar for top prospect status, Dezenzo is quickly accelerating through the Astros system as a third baseman. A scout brought him to my attention a month ago. He’s a low-angle, line-drive machine, leading to high BABIPs. There’s considerable swing-and-miss in his game, introducing risk of stalling in the upper minors. Dezenzo was recently promoted to Double-A.

Johan Rojas, PHI (22): For fans of Esteury Ruiz, Rojas basically has a better version of a similar profile. He doesn’t visually look like Alfonso Soriano the way Ruiz does, but you can easily discern the athletic ability. Unlike Ruiz, he’s already regarded as a plus center fielder. Already on the 40-man roster, Rojas seems likely to ascend to Triple-A in the coming weeks.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

Big Hype Prospects: Walker, Baty, Volpe, Colas, Jameson

By | at

The hype is real this week on Big Hype Prospects. Numerous notable youngsters are among the top performers in the Grapefruit and Cactus Leagues.

Five BHPs In The News

Jordan Walker, 20, OF, STL (AA)
536 PA, 19 HR, 22 SB, .306/.388/.510

Walker is fourth among qualified spring hitters with a 1.429 OPS across 28 plate appearances. He’s already popped three doubles and three home runs. This column has covered Walker’s scouting traits many times. His hot play is putting him in the picture for an Opening Day role, though such an assignment is unlikely for numerous reasons. The sad truth is club control is an important consideration for teams when choosing a debut date. While new rules offer some consolation, the terms* are rather difficult to achieve. Additionally, the Cardinals have a deep roster. Nolan Arenado covers Walker’s natural position of third base. He’s converted to outfield where Dylan Carlson, Tyler O’Neill, Lars Nootbaar, Alec Burleson, and Juan Yepez are also in the mix. In addition to competition and control incentives, Walker isn’t on the 40-man roster nor does he have any experience in Triple-A.

*Namely, two new rules. A player is awarded a full year of service if they finish top two in Rookie of the Year voting. A team can gain extra draft picks if a “top prospect” makes the Opening Day roster and later finishes top three in rookie voting or top five in MVP/Cy Young voting.

Brett Baty, 23, 3B, NYM (MLB)
(AA) 394 PA, 19 HR, 2 SB, .312/.406/.544

Another frequent guest of BHP, Baty is currently sixth-best among qualified hitters with a 1.208 OPS. He has one double and one home run. He spent most of 2022 in Double-A, though he had brief trials in Triple-A and the Majors. He didn’t look overmatched in his debut even though the end results weren’t impressive. An uncharacteristic .179 BABIP entirely explains his modest 71 wRC+. Baty is competing with Eduardo Escobar who could find himself in a utility role if Baty wins the third base job. There’s also room in the designated hitter competition where Daniel Vogelbach, Darin Ruf, and Tommy Pham are expected to see the bulk of the action. None of those veterans should be considered a lock to make the Mets roster.

Anthony Volpe, 21, SS, NYY (AAA)
(AAA) 427 PA, 24 HR, .280/.358/.519

Yet another player who has been covered ad nauseum by this column, Volpe is on the cusp of his big league debut. His 1.097 OPS looks strong in the early going. In addition to a home run and two doubles, he also has three stolen bases. Volpe’s path to the starting shortstop role should be viewed as an uphill battle if only because the Yankees have given themselves a number of difficult decisions to make this spring. Volpe is plagued by the same criteria that could give the Cardinals pause regarding Walker. Additionally, Volpe has identifiable flaws as a hitter – most notably, a fly ball-oriented swing. He could find himself with a low BABIP in the Majors, especially since many pitchers have become adept at attacking this hitting profile.

Oscar Colas, 24, OF, CWS (AAA)
(AA) 225 PA, 14 HR, 1 SB, .306/.364/.563

Colas surged through the White Sox system last season, making stops in High-, Double-, and Triple-A. His time in Double-A was his most meaningful performance. He only accrued 33 plate appearances in Triple-A. Colas has a bead on Chicago’s right field job where first baseman Gavin Sheets is seen as the main competition. Colas is batting .429/.455/.476 in 22 spring plate appearances. He is known for making impactful contact. Like many products of the White Sox farm system over the years, he has a detrimentally aggressive plate approach. His first test in the Majors will be laying off competitive pitches outside of the zone. Many a prospect with comparable tools and discipline to Colas failed to stick in the Majors.

Drey Jameson, 25, SP, ARI (MLB)
(AAA) 114 IP, 8.61 K/9, 3.32 BB/9, 6.95 ERA

Jameson is competing with Ryne Nelson and others for the Diamondbacks fifth starter job. He mostly relies on two fastballs and a plus slider, though he also features a curve and changeup. In three spring outings, he’s tossed 6.2 innings with eight strikeouts, five hits, two walks, a home run, and three runs allowed. Although he’s proven a tad homer prone throughout his development, a high ground ball rate helps to salve the sting. He has the raw traits of a future workhorse. Within the next couple seasons, he could click in much the way Logan Webb clicked between his 2020 and 2021 campaigns. For those concerned about his Triple-A numbers, those are at least partly an artifact of circumstance. Reno’s starters combined for a 5.24 ERA which ranked fifth out of 10 clubs in the PCL.

Three More

Cole Ragans, TEX (25): Ragans averaged 92.1-mph with his heater last season so it raised a few eyebrows when he hit 99-mph the other day. With a number of Rangers starters banged up, there’s a decent chance Ragans will nab a start or two early in the season. I’m withholding enthusiasm until he maintains velocity in longer outings. At a minimum, the southpaw could really play up out of the bullpen.

Masyn Winn, STL (20): Though he has almost no chance of playing his way to an Opening Day assignment, Winn is making a favorable impression this spring. He has a 1.071 OPS in 17 plate appearances with a homer and two steals. Scouts want to see him adjust against competitive breaking balls but are otherwise enamored with the young shortstop. Defensively, he has an 80-grade arm but closer to 40-grade range and footwork. The arm ensures he’ll stick on the left side of the infield.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand, CIN (23): Acquired in the Tyler Mahle trade, Encarnacion-Strand has slugged at every stop along the ladder. He’s expected to reach Triple-A early this season if not right out of the gate. In 18 spring plate appearances, he has 11 hits including a double and three home runs. The profile reads like a more compactly built Franmil Reyes.

Reds Trade Tyler Mahle To Twins

By | at

The Twins have nabbed their second notable arm of the day, acquiring right-hander Tyler Mahle in a trade with the Reds, the teams announced. Cincinnati is receiving infield prospects Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand as well as left-handed pitching prospect Steven Hajjar in the deal. Minnesota has had interest in Mahle dating back to the offseason, when they also picked up another Reds starter, Sonny Gray, in a swap that sent 2021 first-rounder Chase Petty to the Reds.

Tyler Mahle

Minnesota has been focused on upgrading its pitching staff, both in the rotation and in the bullpen. Having already landed Orioles closer Jorge Lopez in a trade with Baltimore earlier this morning, it seems their focus has shifted to Mahle, who’d reunite with Gray and give the Twins a starter they can control for the remainder of the current season and for the 2023 campaign.

Mahle, 28 next month, has shaken off a terrible start to the 2022 season and pitched quite well over the past two months. He had a brief stint on the injured list due to a shoulder strain in mid-July, but Mahle only missed minimal time and has made a pair of effective starts since returning. Dating back to May 29, he’s pitched to a 2.83 ERA with a 27.9% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate in 57 1/3 innings.

Since a breakout during the 2020 season, Mahle has pitched to a 3.93 ERA with a 27.4% strikeout rate and 8.9% walk rate in 332 big league innings. He’s averaged 94 mph with his heater along the way and leaned heavily on a splitter and slider that have both graded out as above-average pitches at times — more recently favoring the splitter (particularly as a means of neutralizing lefties).

Beyond Mahle’s solid ERA, it’s easy to be intrigued by how he might fare when finally escaping the homer-happy confines of Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park. He’s worked to an ugly 4.83 ERA and yielded an average of 1.69 home runs per nine innings over the past three seasons while pitching at home but boasts an outstanding 2.93 ERA and just a 0.52 HR/9 mark on the road. He also has above-average spin on his heater and rates in the 76th percentile or better, per Statcast, in each of the following metrics: expected ERA, expected batting average, expected slugging percentage and expected wOBA.

Mahle will give the Twins some desperately needed help in the rotation, which started the season on a surprisingly strong note but has floundered of late. Opening Day rotation members Bailey Ober and Chris Paddack are both on the injured list — Paddack lost for the season due to Tommy John surgery — and 2020 Cy Young runner-up Kenta Maeda is recovering from his own TJ procedure, performed late last season.

The Twins have leaned heavily on Mahle’s former Reds rotationmate Gray, rookie Joe Ryan and veterans Chris Archer and Dylan Bundy so far in 2022. Gray and Ryan have both been strong — a disastrous five-homer start for Ryan in his last appearance notwithstanding — and Bundy has been serviceable, if unspectacular, outside a pair of catastrophic starts of his own at the end of April and in early May. Archer has been limited to four or five outings per start throughout the season and begun to wilt in recent weeks, however, and the Twins’ overall rotation mix simply underwhelmed in July. Twins starters yielded an awful 6.49 ERA in July — third-worst among all big league teams.

Mahle is earning $5.2MM this season, making him plenty affordable even when factoring in his final arbitration raise for next season (or, as Dan Hayes of The Athletic suggests, in a potential long-term extension). Even absent an extension, he can be penciled into the 2023 staff alongside Gray, Ryan and (health-permitting) Maeda. That’s a much more solid foundation than the team carried into the current season.

Unlike this morning’s acquisition of Lopez, the Twins paid fairly extensively from the top end of their system to get this deal done. Steer, the Twins’ third-round pick in 2019, recently moved into the back end of Baseball America’s midseason top-100 rankings on the heels of a big first half.

Splitting his time between Double-A and Triple-A, Steer has turned in a combined .269/.361/.528 batting line with 20 home runs, 23 doubles, three triples, a 17% strikeout rate and a strong 10.8% walk rate. He’s split his time between second base, third base and shortstop this season, spending the bulk of his time at the hot corner (although Baseball America cites second as his best position). Given his breakout showing this year, it’s not unreasonable to think Steer could be an option for the Reds within the next year.

The 22-year-old Encarnacion-Strand, meanwhile was Minnesota’s fourth-round selection just last year. As with Steer, he’d having a huge season in the minors, logging a combined .302/.374/.612 batting line with 25 home runs, 25 doubles and four triples between Class-A Advanced and Double-A. Strikeouts have been more of an issue for Encarnacion-Strand than for Steer, as he’s fanned in about a quarter of his place appearances this season against a solid 8.7% walk rate. BA ranked him 14th in the Twins’ system, touting his plus-plus raw power but noting that he’s at best a fringey defender at third base and may need to move across the diamond.

Hajjar, 21, was the Twins’ second-round pick in last year’s draft and has had an impressive first full pro season this year. Minnesota has been limiting his workload, evidenced by 45 1/3 innings across a combined 13 starts, but the results have been strong. The former Michigan standout has logged a 3.18 ERA with a gaudy 39.2% strikeout rate so far, although his 14% walk rate is something he’ll obviously need to hone is he’s to ever realize his ceiling as a mid-rotation starter.

Hajjar can reach the mid-to-upper 90s with his heater, which he complements with a slider and changeup. Notably, Hajjar did spend more than a month on the shelf due to a shoulder strain, and his results since returning have been diminished. Still, he’s a clearly talented arm whom the Reds can add to the middle tier of a farm system they’re rapidly restocking.

With this trade, the Twins have now moved on from four of their top five picks in the 2021 draft since trading for Gray just prior to the season. That’ll take a toll on the system, which has also been harmed by a series of injuries to last year’s wave of top prospects (e.g. Josh Winder, Jordan Balazovic). That said, it’s also a testament to the strength of last year’s class. And, with the Twins receiving strong production from some recent graduates of the farm — including the aforementioned Ryan leverage reliever Jhoan Duran and slugging corner infielder Jose Miranda, among others — there’ll be a bit less pressure to tap into the upper levels of their system in the immediate future.

Time will tell whether the Twins have another move up their sleeve. They could certainly use another reliever and/or another starter, to say nothing of a backup catcher or an outfielder — all rumored to be on Minnesota’s wishlist. There’s about two hours left for them to find a way to pull together another deal (or deals). The Reds, meanwhile, will surely have other players on the move as general manager Nick Krall and his staff continue to restock the farm and simultaneously slash payroll.

C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic first reported (via Twitter) that the Twins and Reds were in “serious” talks regarding Mahle. The New York Post’s Jon Heyman tweeted that a deal was in place. Ted Schwerzler of TwinsDaily was first with the return (Twitter link).

MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

Do not Sell or Share My Personal Information

hide arrows scroll to top