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Daniel Bard

Odds & Ends: Chipper, Cubs, Lowell, Mets, Tigers

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Links for Thursday, as Ubaldo Jimenez keeps winning…

Cafardo’s Latest: Red Sox, Brewers, Mariners, Oswalt

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In today's notes column, Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe wonders if the Red Sox would move closer Jonathan Papelbon after the season to open up the closer's role for Daniel Bard. He speculates that the Brewers, Twins, Rays, Braves, and Phillies could be in the market for a closer this winter. Papelbon is scheduled to become a free agent after the 2011 season. 

Let's round up the rest of Cafardo's rumors…

  • Scott Boras said he undervalued Stephen Strasburg last year, even though he eventually signed the largest contract in draft history. Boras added that being around San Diego State coach Tony Gwynn helped Strasburg become prepared for what lied ahead.
  • Cafardo says that New England isn't a high priority area for scouts before the draft because by time they can get out to see the players in the region, it's too late in the game for a cross-checker to confirm anything.
  • Cafardo predicts that Jacoby Ellsbury will be traded this offseason. He'll arbitration eligible for the first time after 2010, though he's been battling rib issues basically all season.
  • He also remarks that the Red Sox would have to play Mike Lowell if they want to showcase him for a trade. Lowell has received just 50 plate appearances since the end of April.
  • Kevin Millwood should become major trade bait as the deadline approaches because he's pitched well and is in the final year of his contract.
  • The Brewers would love to make Randy Wolf available, but no one would take him on with more than two years and $24MM left on his deal. Meanwhile, Milwaukee still isn't sure if they'll try to improve their catching situation or become sellers and look towards next season.
  • The feeling is that once Seattle trades Cliff Lee, pretty much everyone on their roster not named Ichiro and Felix Hernandez will be available as well. 
  • Diamondbacks' CEO Derrick Hall isn't happy with his team's performance and has talked about re-evaluating his management staff. They could be major players at the deadline, with Justin Upton representing the only untouchable.
  • Cafardo says that the feeling among big league executives is that the Dodgers will not give up the prospects necessary to acquire Roy Oswalt, but they would be okay taking on the money.
  • Adam Dunn would be a perfect fit for the Red Sox if they let David Ortiz go after the season, assuming the Nationals don't re-sign him.  

Could Jonathan Papelbon Be Trade Bait?

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It still seems way too early to write off Boston's 2010 season, but as of today, the Red Sox stand eight games behind Tampa Bay for first place in the AL East.  The way the Rays and Yankees (when healthy) have played this season, it will be hard for the Red Sox to make a run at either the division lead or the wild card barring either an extended hot streak on their part or a big collapse from one of the leaders.

Should July roll around and the Sox still haven't made their move, club management may decide that adding players would be fruitless and instead turn their attention to reloading for 2011.  Boston is hoping they get some trade offers for the likes of Mike Lowell and David Ortiz, but perhaps the most intriguing possible pick-up for a contender would be Jonathan Papelbon.  The closer is having a solid season (3.15 ERA, 10 saves out of 11 chances), but there are some outliers that suggest Papelbon isn't quite the dominant closer he was just a couple of seasons ago.

Tony Massarotti of the Boston Globe suggests that Papelbon was overworked during the 2008 postseason and has never been quite the same since.  He points to Papelbon's ballooning walk rate, which went from 2.1 BB/9 over the first four years of his career to 3.2 BB/9 in 2009 and 4.5 BB/9 this season.  Papelbon's srikeouts are down too — he has just a 6.8 K/9 ratio this season, well below the 10.4 K/9 average he posted in the first five years of his career.

Papelbon's slight decline could force the Red Sox to make a hard choice when it comes to the prospect of a long-term contract for their star closer.  Papelbon avoided arbitration last winter when he signed a one-year, $9.35MM deal, and he still has one more arbitration year left before becoming a free agent after the 2011 season.  As ESPN's Rob Neyer puts it, since Papelbon is still having an overall good season, "he'll get a raise next year and probably a nice one. Is a reasonably good reliever worth (say) $11 million?"  The presence of Daniel Bard as Boston's closer of the future is even more incentive for the Sox to think about moving Papelbon sooner rather than later.

Given Papelbon's pedigree, the right-hander would likely be a much more reliable midseason addition for a contender than other possible available closers as Matt Capps or Kevin Gregg.  If Brad Lidge can't pull himself together and Jose Contreras comes back to earth, the Phillies could be in the market for a proven closer.  Same with Colorado, should the Franklin Morales/Manuel Corpas tandem not work out.  Even the Angels could be a possibility if they can turn things around — if Brian Fuentes continues to struggle, L.A. might not be comfortable handing the job over to Fernando Rodney.

Odds & Ends: Anderson, Penny, Mariners, Zito

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Links for Tuesday, as J.J. Hardy hits the disabled list…

Odds & Ends: Papelbon, Bay, Lopez, Brewers

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Monday night linkage…

  • The World Umpires Association voted to ratify a new five-year contract with MLB that will extend to December 31st, 2014, according to Barry M. Bloom and Tom Singer of MLB.com.  The new contract was agreed upon in principal last month, but was not officially ratified until late Monday night.
  • Amalie Benjamin of the Boston Globe writes that neither Jonathan Papelbon nor the Red Sox seem interested in a long-term deal.  Boston may be reluctant to lock Papelbon in for the long-haul as they have Daniel Bard waiting in the wings.
  • Peter Gammons, in an appearance on NESN, said that the Red Sox and Jason Bay agreed to a four-year, $60MM pact in July, before an MRI raised concerns about both of his knees.  As a result, Boston reduced their offer from four years to two years.  Gammons suggested that this was an example of why an independent medical staff should be in place in the majors.
  • Cards manager Tony La Russa said that if the club makes one more move this off-season, he would prefer another hitter to a pitcher, writes Matthew Leach of MLB.com.  Ideally, La Russa says he would like a third baseman who could also play the outfield.  Leach writes that Felipe Lopez comes to mind.
  • Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel spoke to Brewers negotiator Teddy Werner, who said that Jody Gerut might be the only arbitration signing today.  We'll be keeping you posted on all of the day's signings in this handy post.

Overnight Links: Red Sox, Jays, Posey, Past Deals

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Some overnight links for your viewing pleasure as we start to get into the real late hours of the night:

  • USA Today's Bob Nightengale says good morning with a series of tweets; Nightengale says he continues to hear Edwin Jackson's name floated about, and that "most executives" feel he'll be traded soon. He also wouldn't be surprised to see Adrian Beltre fall into Boston's lap if he declines arbitration. Not sure where he envisions Mike Lowell in that scenario.
  • Jeff Zrebiec lists ten trade targets for the Orioles, though he admits that some are highly unlikely. In a separate piece, Peter Schmuck opines that it's not a waste of money if the O's spend money on free agents this offseason to add a few wins and show future free agents that Baltimore is trending in the right direction.
  • Alex Speier of WEEI.com explains why it would be unlike the Red Sox sacrifice a high draft pick for a free agent reliever such as Mike Gonzalez or Rafael Soriano.  As you know, Boston currently owes their first-round #29 pick to the Blue Jays for signing Marco Scutaro.
  • Anything can happen at the Winter Meetings, writes Peter Schmuck, who reminds us of the 1990 deal between the Blue Jays and Padres that sent Fred McGriff and Tony Fernandez to San Diego for Roberto Alomar and Joe Carter. That trade started off as a minor discussion.
  • The Boston Herald has ten things to keep in mind at this year's Winter Meetings.
  • Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch looks at how the economy will affect this year's Winter Meetings, and poses five key questions to keep in mind this time around.
  • Gordon Wittenmyer looks at why the Cubs are optimistic that they can move Milton Bradley this offseason.
  • Count Tim Wakefield and Daniel Bard among those in the Jason Bay camp for the Red Sox, says Michael Silverman. While Matt Holliday may be a more complete player, Wakefield and Bard would prefer their friend and proven AL East commodity. Good read, if for no other reason than Wakefield's quote at the end on how closely he follows the offseason: "…We’ll be sitting in the dugout in spring training in Fort Myers and I’ll look across and be, ‘How the hell did he get over there?’ ”
  • John Tomase touches on the Red Sox needs this offseason. Tomase hits most of the names we've already heard, and throws Mark DeRosa and Jamey Carroll into the mix as well.
  • Quick! Who do you see spending the most money on the draft in 2010? Bet you didn't guess the Blue Jays (unless of course you took into consideration the large hint I provided in the title of this post). Reports are that the Jays will have a ridiculous $16MM to spend on the draft in 2010. The Jays have eight picks in the first three rounds (nine if Rod Barajas signs elsewhere), and plan to take full advantage of it.
  • El Lefty Malo takes a look at the possibility that the Giants sign Jason Kendall as their starting catcher because of the belief that Buster Posey isn't ready. Apparently, it's not a thought that sits well.
  • MLB.com looks back at some of the best trades and free agent signings by each club in the National League and American League since the era of Divisional play began. They've also got a more generic list of the best moves of the past 40 seasons.
  • Per Kyodo News, several teams have expressed interest in So Taguchi, according to his agent Alan Nero. Several teams? Can't say I expected that one.

Brewers Notes: Washburn, Davis, Kendall

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Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel has the latest on the Brew Crew's off-season maneuvering….

  • As reported earlier today, the Brewers are expected to pursue veteran starters Jarrod Washburn and Doug Davis.  Scott Boras, Washburn's agent, said that he hadn't met with Brewers management yet, but expected the team to "resume their interest" (via Twitter).
  • Haudricourt tweeted that the Brewers have already made contact with Davis' agent.  Milwaukee could be battling with (among other teams) the Mariners over Davis' services, as FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi noted that Seattle "may be keen" on Davis themselves.
  • Milwaukee GM Doug Melvin said he didn't ask the Red Sox for Clay Buchholz or Daniel Bard in exchange for the now-departed J.J. Hardy, but those names did surface in trade talks with Boston last summer (via Twitter).
  • Melvin said the club may go with prospect Jonathan Lucroy at catcher next season, either as part of a platoon or perhaps as an everyday player should Lucroy perform well in spring training.  Lucroy hit .267/.381/.418 in 506 plate appearances at Double-A Huntsville last season, and has an .844 OPS over his three minor league seasons.  Another catching prospect, Angel Salome, will be given a long look in the spring as well.
  • Lucroy's elevation could spell the end of Jason Kendall's time in Milwaukee, though Haudricourt noted that Melvin met with Kendall's representatives to see if the free agent catcher would be willing to return.  If the veteran does come back to the Brewers, it will surely be at a lower price than Kendall's $5MM salary in 2009.

Odds & Ends: Hardy, Tejada, Cardinals, Mariners

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Here's a few links to close out the night…

  • Tony Massarotti of The Boston Globe says that the Red Sox "had been engaging with the Brewers in on-and-off discussions involving (J.J.) Hardy since the trading deadline." Massarotti's source says the Brewers wanted either Clay Buchholz or Daniel Bard, but Boston was only willing to part with Michael Bowden.
  • MLB'com's Brian McTaggart tweets that Astros' GM Ed Wade said “At this point, we’re prepared to commit to Tommy Manzella playing shortstop," but noted that Miguel Tejada could return as a third baseman.
  • Matthew Leach of MLB.com takes a look at some outfield options for the Cardinals should Matt Holliday depart as a free agent.
  • The Mariners don't really have any non-tender candidates, according to Larry Stone of The Seattle Times. He also mentions that Brandon Morrow, Jason Vargas, and Jack Hannahan fell a little short of qualifying as Super Twos. 
  • ESPN's Peter Gammons says it's possible, though highly unlikely, that the Red Sox and Josh Beckett's agent Michael Moye are so far apart during contract ngotiations that the team would consider dealing their ace. He also says that unless there is "some unexpected understanding," Beckett will hit the free agent market after 2010.
  • J.C. Bradbury debunked some common Hot Stove Myths.

Cafardo on Gonzalez, Martinez, Webb, Lackey

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In his column today, the Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo brings us a great deal of tidbits from around the majors:

  • Former Toronto GM J.P. Ricciardi and ex-Padres GM Kevin Towers will "likely surface somewhere soon."
  • Cafardo wonders aloud if new Padres GM Jed Hoyer could work out a deal with his former club and send Adrian Gonzalez to Boston.  One AL GM identified Gonzalez and Heath Bell as major chips that could be moved as part of a rebuilding effort.  Hoyer is obviously familiar with Boston's assets, but Theo Epstein might be reluctant to part with Casey Kelly, Clay Buchholz and Daniel Bard.
  • Boston must act on Victor Martinez's $7.1MM option within five days of the World Series ending, but Cafardo wonders if they would prefer to sign him to a long-term deal in advance of Joe Mauer's talks with the Twins.  Martinez's rep says that he and his client are "up for either scenario."
  • If the Red Sox choose to part ways with Jason Varitek ($5MM club option or $3MM player option for '10), there are a number of options available to the BoSox to replace him.  One player mentioned is Rays catcher Gregg Zaun, whose $2MM option may not be picked up.  Zaun has already said that he wants to return to Tampa Bay in 2010.
  • The "latest thinking" indicates that Arizona will pick up Brandon Webb's $8.5MM option as his rehab from shoulder surgery is reportedly going well.
  • John Lackey is in line for a big contract this winter, but it doesn't appear that he'll get it from the Angels.  The Angels could instead use that money on an upgrade over Brian Fuentes.  Cafardo says to look for the Rangers and Mets to show interest.
  • More on the Angels as Vladimir Guerrero could stay on with the club if he is willing to take a reasonably priced one-year deal.  Guerrero has already publicly stated his desire to remain with the Halos.
  • It will be difficult for the Phillies to find the cash necessary to retain Pedro Martinez.
  • Dan Duquette was considered for the Blue Jays CEO/President position but doesn't appear to be atop current CEO Paul Beeston's list.

Red Sox Rumors: Bay, Drew, Bard

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Red Sox GM Theo Epstein appeared on WEEI's Dennis & Callahan show this morning; let's take a look.

  • Epstein admitted the Red Sox need a contingency plan in case Jason Bay leaves, but he still believes "[Bay] wants to be here, and we want to keep him and take a shot."
  • Epstein says J.D. Drew has been worth "a tick more than $14MM per year," due to his offense, defense, and baserunning.  FanGraphs has the best-known public player valuation system, and they say Drew has averaged $14.93MM in regular season value over 2007-09.
  • The Red Sox GM was not trying to send a message through the media when he said DH David Ortiz needed to be a force in 2010.
  • Epstein considers reliever Daniel Bard a "work in progress," and implies thrusting him into the closer role in 2010 wouldn't be beneficial long-term for Bard.
  • In other Red Sox news, Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald says the team has "expressed interest in meeting with [Aroldis Chapman] and watching him throw, although it is premature to categorize their interest as anything beyond preliminary."
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