Odds & Ends: Marcum, Reds, Marlins, Munson
A few more links, on the night of Johnny Damon's 2,500th career hit….
- Shaun Marcum would like to remain a Blue Jay, but says if he gets traded, "hopefully it's [to] someone that's obviously going to be in the playoffs." MLB.com's James Hall has the full story.
- With Edinson Volquez set to rejoin Cincinnati soon, Brandon Phillips tells CBS Sports' Danny Knobler that he doesn't think the Reds need to trade for a pitcher.
- Marlins' players are battling to stay in the playoff hunt, in hopes of convincing the front office not to break up the team, writes the Palm Beach Post's Joe Capozzi. Florida's brass should decide soon whether or not they'll become sellers.
- The Indians signed a pitcher whose pre-draft arm surgery dropped him from a potential top-50 pick to the seventh round, according to Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer.
- The Padres released former third overall pick Eric Munson, tweets MLB.com's Corey Brock.
- Frank Wren is biding his time when it comes to making trades, writes Carroll Rogers of the Atlanta Journal Constitution. Wren reiterated what we heard a couple weeks ago: the Braves likely won't need to acquire any pitching.
- Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports (Twitter link) hears that the White Sox aren't currently "heavily involved" in trade talk, but concedes that with Chicago, that could change at any moment.
- The Orioles are scouting the Phillies tonight, according to Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer (via Twitter). Gelb notes that Ty Wigginton, Miguel Tejada, and Jeremy Guthrie could all be potential targets for the Phils.
- AOL FanHouse's Frankie Piliere lists ten baseball people that ought to be considered for future general manager openings.
State Of The Trade: Volquez For Hamilton
It is a useful exercise to take a look back at trades that were made, to help evaluate exactly how they are going for both teams. With the news of Edinson Volquez receiving a 50-game suspension for performance-enhancing drugs, now seems like a good time to evaluate the deal that sent Volquez and Danny Herrera from Texas to Cincinnati in exchange for Josh Hamilton.
As Tim pointed out earlier this afternoon, the suspension itself does very little to impact Volquez's value to the Reds. His 50-game suspension begins tomorrow, with Volquez on the DL. He had Tommy John Surgery on August 3, 2009, so even the most optimistic projections wouldn't have had him back before the 50 games is up.
As to who is ahead in this deal, it is hard to say. Both Hamilton and Volquez have had one fantastic season with their post-trade teams. Hamilton posted a .304/.371/.530 line with Texas in 2008 during his age-27 season. Volquez, during that same season, put up a 17-6, 3.21 ERA line in his age-24 season.
By Baseball Prospectus' Wins Above Replacement Player, Volquez was worth 5.3 WARP in 2008, Hamilton checking in at 5.5. As per Fangraphs.com's WAR, Volquez was slightly ahead, 4.3 to 4.1. Both had injury-marred 2009 seasons, and have posted roughly equivalent value for their two teams so far.
Moving forward, Hamilton is off to a rough start in 2010, at .222/.333/.390 through his first 48 plate appearances. Volquez, of course, won't be able to help Cincinnati until later this season if at all.
With his litany of injuries, it is hard to count on Hamilton to recapture his 2007 form. Volquez is coming back from Tommy John surgery, a fairly common occurrence. Volquez is also significantly younger; Hamilton turns 29 on May 21, Volquez turns just 27 on July 3. However, projecting pitchers is almost always harder than projecting hitters.
This challenge trade seems too close to call right now, but Volquez seems likelier to regain elite player status. More money, however, is due to Hamilton. He earns $3.25MM in 2010, as he was arbitration-eligible this past offseason, while Volquez makes just $445K (and the Reds won't need to pay him for the next 50 games, or roughly a third of that salary).
In the meantime? Danny Herrera keeps on keeping on, following a 3.06 ERA in 61 2/3 innings in 2009 with a strong start in 2010. Just 25, Herrera may be the difference-maker in this deal after all.
Edinson Volquez Gets 50-Game PED Suspension
Reds pitcher Edinson Volquez has been suspended 50 games for using PEDs, reports SI's Jon Heyman. Volquez is currently recovering from Tommy John surgery; he had the procedure on August 3rd of last year. Even with the 50 games off, Volquez will be able to serve the suspension while on the DL – it begins tomorrow. His service time will not be affected, and he'll still be arbitration-eligible after the season.
Volquez released a statement on the matter, saying he received medication in the Dominican Republic prescribed to help with fertility.
Reds Report: Volquez, Bruce, Gomes
To put it mildly, this has been a rough year for Reds fans. Edinson Volquez had the Cincinnati faithful buzzing after posting a 3.21 ERA with 9.5 K/9 in his first full season in 2008. After logging just nine starts in the 2009 campaign, Volquez needed surgery to repair damage in his right elbow. The Reds faded fast as their depleted staff wasn't getting much of a lift from their sagging offense. Injuries to Joey Votto and Edwin Encarnacion (prior to being dealt to Toronto) certainly didn't do them any favors.
However, if the team's recent performance is any indication of what lies ahead, Reds fans might have something to cheer about in 2010. Dusty Baker's squad has gone 19-11 since September 1st, thanks in part to stronger pitching (3.39 team ERA) and the return of Jay Bruce, who missed two months with a broken wrist.
Buster Olney, Baseball Prospectus and the ESPN Insider staff compiled a glance at this past season and what to expect next year in Cincy. An ESPN Insider account is needed to read the article, but here are the brass tacks for those without:
- It's no secret that the Reds don't have a top-flight budget. They opened this season with a payroll of $73MM and owner Bob Castellini isn't going to "go all Steinbrenner" and tack-on much more.
- Further exacerbating their financial woes are their pricey commitments to Bronson Arroyo, Francisco Cordero, Aaron Harang and Scott Rolen. Combined, these four players are owed $46.5 million next season.
- Olney says that considering their lack of flexibility this offseason, Homer Bailey might be their best chance for improvement as he recorded a 2.41 ERA in September. The velocity that made Bailey such a highly-coveted prospect has returned, with his fastball being clocked at an average of 94.5 MPH this year. This is a big step-up from his previous big league work and could spell an even bigger jump in 2010.
- Baseball Prospectus says that their "acceptable" rate of 4.5 runs allowed per game is due in part to their much-improved defense. It will be interesting to see if defensive-minded yet weak-hitting shortstop Paul Janish will be the Reds' starter next season. Manager Dusty Baker said on Friday that a "definitive decision" hasn't been made yet.
- Jay Jaffe of Baseball Prospectus notes that the combined efforts of all Reds batting in the top two lineup spots resulted in a slash line of .245/.301/.354. When Willy Taveras hit the DL in August, Dusty Baker put rookie Drew Stubbs and the aforementioned Janish at the top of the order. The team has gone 27-15 since then, but Jaffe attributes most of the credit for that to the improved performance of the pitching staff.
- The "Rumor Central" portion of the piece encourages Reds fans that are anxious to see the team acquire a big bat to consider what the offense is capable of if they are healthy. Injury-free seasons from Bruce and Votto should give Cincinnati a major boost.
- The report says to expect the Reds to tender Jonny Gomes an offer as he is arbitration-eligible. This should come as no surprise as Gomes has belted 20 HRs in 311 plate appearances while posting .266/.338/.540.
- Jaffe says that Jocketty could deal Arroyo or Harang to give the team room to make a mid-level signing this winter. He adds, "…It's difficult to envision this team breaking out of the middle of the pack without keen vision and bold steps."
Odds And Ends: Volquez, Hamilton, Pirates
Time for some afternoon links…
- Over at SI.com Jonah Keri looks back at a win-win trade that lost its luster. Josh Hamilton and Edinson Volquez seemed like perfect fits for their new teams just last year, but injuries have shelved both.
- In his MLB.com chat, Pirates president Frank Coonelly defended the organization's choice to flip Jason Bay for prospects last summer. FanGraphs values Andy LaRoche's 2009 performance more than Bay's, believe it or not.
- Coonelly says the Pirates are the only club to have offered Miguel Angel Sano "significant dollars." Don't expect Sano to sign until the investigation into his age is complete, however.
- Brandon Phillips would consider playing short if the Reds want him to, according to John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer.
Odds And Ends: Eyre, Michael Taylor, Borkowski
Tonight all eyes will be on Randy Johnson as he goes for his 300th win. Here are some links to keep you going until then…
- Jim Salisbury of the Philadelphia Inquirer says the Phillies are in no hurry to deal prospect Michael Taylor, who's slugging over .600 at Double A. Taylor understands that, as a corner outfielder, there's not much room for him in Philly. Could Taylor be a trade chip as the Phillies look to add pitching?
- Andy Martino of the Inquirer reports that Scott Eyre says he's "more than 90 percent" sure he'll retire after this year. Eyre, 37, has pitched for five teams in 13 seasons.
- Roy Halladay threw 133 pitches last night and ESPN.com's Rob Neyer hopes for Halladay's sake that it isn't the beginning of a trend though he doesn't criticize Cito Gaston's decision to let Doc pitch.
- Baseball America has more minor league transactions. Dave Borkowski was released by the Astros after he was designated for assignment.
- John Fay of the Cincinnati Inquirer revisits the Josh Hamilton for Edinson Volquez deal and asks Reds fans whether they like the deal for their team.