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Eric Lauer

Brewers Outright Eric Lauer

By Darragh McDonald | October 20, 2023 at 3:30pm CDT

Left-hander Eric Lauer has passed through waivers unclaimed and been outrighted by the Brewers to Triple-A Nashville, per Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Lauer has more than three years of service time, which gives him the right to reject this outright and elect free agency.

Lauer, now 28, once seemed like a solid part of the pitching staff in Milwaukee. Over 2021 and 2022, he tossed 277 1/3 innings for the Brewers with a 3.47 earned run average. He stuck out 23.8% of batters faced in that time while issuing walks at a 8.7% clip.

He and the club agreed to an arbitration salary of $5.075MM for 2023 and he opened the year in the club’s rotation. Unfortunately, he struggled to get on track this year, posting a 5.48 ERA through his first nine appearances. He landed on the injured list in late May due to an impingement in his non-throwing shoulder and the club optioned him to the minors once he was healthy enough to be activated. His 5.04 ERA in the minors this year wasn’t much better but he got recalled at the end of September to make an appearance after the club had already clinched the division. He allowed eight earned runs in four innings, ballooning his ERA for the season to 6.56.

Lauer could have been retained for 2024 via arbitration, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting a slight raise to a salary of $5.2MM next year. But after his poor results in 2023 and the fact that he’ll be out of options next year, it seems the Brewers weren’t willing to have him back at that price point.

Assuming Lauer elects free agency, he will head to the open market and be free to pursue contracts will all 30 clubs. His frustrating 2023 season will obviously hurt him but he can point to his strong results in the two previous campaigns as he looks for his next gig.

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Milwaukee Brewers Transactions Eric Lauer

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NL Central Notes: Keller, Cubs, Lauer

By Nick Deeds | September 30, 2023 at 10:09pm CDT

The Pirates and right-hander Mitch Keller have previously discussed a contract extension as recently as this spring,  and while no deal got done back then, it appears those talks could continue with the offseason on the horizon. As relayed by Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Keller recently spoke openly about his desire to hammer out a long-term deal with the Pirates. “Hopefully this offseason we can get something going with extension talks,” Keller said. “I would love to be part of it and be here for however many years. I think we have a really good window here to really do something special.”

It’s easy to see why the Pirates would have interest in locking up Keller, as the 27-year-old righty has proven to be a steadying presence in the club’s starting rotation over the past two seasons, with a 4.08 ERA and 3.83 FIP across 353 1/3 innings of work with a 23% strikeout rate. A first-time All Star in 2023, Keller posted a 3.31 ERA and 3.32 FIP while striking out 26.7% of batters faced in the first half. While the wheels came off for Keller when he allowed a 5.59 ERA over his final 13 starts of the season, the talent he flashed in the first half is that of a mid-rotation arm or better. That’s a particularly valuable commodity for a Pirates team that sports a core dominated by hitters like Bryan Reynolds, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Oneil Cruz, and Endy Rodriguez.

More from around the NL Central…

  • Pittsburgh’s loss to the Marlins this evening officially eliminated the Cubs from postseason contention, and plenty of criticism from fans and media has been levied toward club manager David Ross as the club’s playoff odds steadily sunk from a high-water mark of 92% in early September. Despite that outside criticism, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer recently stood by his manager, telling reporters (including Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune) that “People are going to ask you about your bad decisions 100 times more than they’re going to ask about your good decisions. That is the job… I’m looking at ‘What can you do better and keep learning?’” With Hoyer defending his manager, it seems likely that Ross will return for the 2024 campaign, which is the final guaranteed season of his contract. The Cubs hold a club option on his services for the 2025 season.
  • Brewers left-hander Eric Lauer returned to the club today more than three months after being optioned to the minors back in June. As noted by Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, Lauer was shut down for much of the summer due to issues in both of his shoulders and his left elbow. Lauer returned to the big leagues for a start against the Cubs this evening, but the lefty allowed eight runs on nine hits and four walks in four innings of work, ballooning his season ERA to 6.56 across ten appearances (nine starts). Between Lauer’s struggles and increasing price in arbitration, Hogg notes that it “seems unlikely” Lauer will return to Milwaukee in 2024. If today marks the end of Lauer’s time with the Brewers, he’ll depart with a career 4.05 ERA (102 ERA+) in 331 innings since being acquired from the Padres alongside Luis Urias in exchange for Trent Grisham and Zach Davies.
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Chicago Cubs Milwaukee Brewers Notes Pittsburgh Pirates David Ross Eric Lauer Mitch Keller

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Brewers Option Eric Lauer To Triple-A

By Mark Polishuk | June 14, 2023 at 12:44pm CDT

The Brewers activated Eric Lauer from the 15-day injured list yesterday, but optioned the left-hander to Triple-A Nashville rather than return him to the Major League roster.  Between injury and inconsistency, Lauer’s 2023 season has been a rough ride, and Brewers GM Matt Arnold told reporters (including Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel) the team felt the Triple-A move was necessary since “we want to get him right, to be healthy and be a contributor.”

Lauer has been out of action since May 22 due to an impingement in his right shoulder.  Though his throwing arm remained fine, Lauer told MLB.com and other reporters that his right shoulder problem still impacted his delivery, which could explain his shaky results this season.  Over 42 2/3 innings, Lauer had only a 5.48 ERA, 21.9% strikeout rate, and 10.7% walk rate, as well as high hard-contact rates.  The southpaw’s 13.5% barrel rate ranks near the bottom of the league, and all of these barrels have resulted in Lauer’s career-worst 20.6% home run rate.

Not a particularly hard thrower to begin with, Lauer had a big velocity drop, going from a 93.4mph average fastball in 2022 to a 90.9mph heater this season.  However, he said that recent bullpen sessions have brought some velo back, adding roughly 3-5mph to his fastball.  The results haven’t been there for Lauer over a pair of minor league rehab starts, but he’ll now get a fuller stretch in Nashville to get himself more fully back on track.

Lauer pitched well for Milwaukee over the last two seasons, moving into the rotation on a full-time basis in 2021 and delivering a 3.47 ERA over 277 1/3 innings in 2021-22.  His quality results and flexibility to work as a swingman if needed has been a valuable part of the Brew Crew’s pitching depth, yet that depth has been pretty severely tested this season by a number of injuries.  Fortunately for the Brewers, Wade Miley is projected to return from the IL this weekend, perhaps giving the team a bit of breathing room to send Lauer to Triple-A.

Heading into the 2023 season, Lauer has four full seasons and 33 days (or, 4.033) of Major League service time.  That total has now increased to 4.110 since Opening Day, so unless Lauer’s stint in Triple-A lasts quite a bit longer than expected, he shouldn’t be in jeopardy of not amassing the six full years of MLB service time required for free agency.  Lauer is currently slated to hit the open market following the 2024 season.

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Milwaukee Brewers Transactions Eric Lauer

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Brewers Notes: Urias, Adames, Woodruff, Lauer, Bush

By Nick Deeds | June 4, 2023 at 2:14pm CDT

MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy relayed a series of significant updates regarding injured Brewers players this morning. Most encouragingly, the Brewers expect to welcome both infielder Luis Urias and shortstop Willy Adames back from the injured list this week.

Urias, who suffered a hamstring strain on Opening Day and hasn’t played since, is expected to rejoin the club on Tuesday as they begin a homestand against the Orioles. Acquired in the trade that sent Trent Grisham to San Diego prior to the 2020 season, Urias has been a key piece of the club’s infield picture for several seasons now, particularly since his offensive breakout in 2021. Since the beginning of the 2021 season, Urias has slashed a solid .243/.339/.424 (111 wRC+) with a 20.6% strikeout rate and a 10.8% walk rate in 1,046 trips to the plate.

Adames, meanwhile, has been on the 7-day concussion IL since getting struck with a foul ball in the dugout last week. McCalvy notes that the current plan is for Adames to play DH for High-A Wisconsin today before moving on to Triple-A Nashville. After two games in Nashville, Adames figures to be activated from the injured list on Thursday.

After the Brewers acquired Adames partway through the 2021 season, the then-25-year-old shortstop raked for the club in 99 games for the rest of the season, with a .285/.366/.521 slash line that was 36% better than league average by measure of wRC+. Adames followed up that performance in 2022 with a solid 109 wRC+ in 139 games, but struggled prior to his placement on the IL this season, slashing a below-average .205/.292/.384 in 51 games.

Still, the Brewers figure to be bolstered significantly by the return of their two most reliable infielders. Andruw Monasterio, Owen Miller, and Brian Anderson have all produced solid results in the infield while Urias and Adames have been on the shelf. Assuming the Brewers look to keep all three of them on the active roster even after the duo returns this week, it’s possible the club will look toward the likes of Brice Turang, Mike Brosseau, and Abraham Toro when clearing space for Adames and Urias on the active roster. Each of those three infielders (as well as both Monasterio and Miller) are optionable, leaving Milwaukee with plenty of options as they look to make roster decisions in the coming days.

While the updates on Adames and Urias are encouraging, the same unfortunately cannot be said regarding ace right-hander Brandon Woodruff. The 30-year-old righty made just two starts this season before going on the injured list with a subscapular strain in his right shoulder, which came with an initial timeline that figured to see him return later this month. McCalvy notes that Woodruff’s timetable for return has been pushed back, however, as the righty has yet to progress to throwing off a mound, leaving the Brewers to target a return around the All Star break for their ace.

The setback for Woodruff is a tough blow to the Brewers, who have since lost Wade Miley and Eric Lauer from their rotation to injuries (in addition to Aaron Ashby, who has yet to pitch this season after undergoing shoulder surgery). What’s more, Woodruff’s co-ace Corbin Burnes has had a somewhat pedestrian season to this point by his lofty standards, posting a 3.75 ERA (113 ERA+) and a 4.59 FIP across twelve starts while striking out 22.8% of batters faced.

Speaking of Lauer, the left-hander and reliever Matt Bush are both expected to head to Triple-A for rehab assignments on Tuesday. Lauer struggled mightily in nine appearances (eight starts) this season prior to going on the IL due to an impingement in his non-throwing shoulder, with a 5.48 ERA and a 6.73 FIP in 42 2/3 innings of work. Bush also struggled in nine games prior to hitting the IL with tendinitis in his right rotator cuff allowing seven runs on four homers and six walks in just 7 2/3 innings of work.

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Milwaukee Brewers Notes Brandon Woodruff Eric Lauer Luis Urias Matt Bush Willy Adames

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Brewers Return Gus Varland To Dodgers, Place Eric Lauer On Injured List

By Steve Adams and Darragh McDonald | May 22, 2023 at 4:30pm CDT

The Brewers announced Monday that they’ve returned Rule 5 righty Gus Varland to the Dodgers after he went unclaimed on waivers, placed lefty Eric Lauer on the 15-day injured list due to an impingement in his right (non-throwing) shoulder, and recalled right-hander Tyson Miller from Triple-A Nashville.

Varland, 26, earned a spot on the Brewers’ Opening Day roster after he whiffed 17 of his 35 opponents in spring training. He started the season with a 2.25 ERA through his first eight innings, albeit with a less-impressive 5-to-5 K/BB ratio, and landed on the injured list in mid-April after a comebacker struck him on the pitching hand. He thankfully escaped major injury and was back on the mound about three weeks later, but the Cardinals torched him for nine runs in an outing that saw him record just two outs. That ballooned his ERA to 11.42, and the Brewers designated him for assignment the next day.

Twenty-eight other teams had the opportunity to claim Varland, though doing so would’ve meant committing to carrying him on the active roster, as his Rule 5 restrictions would’ve followed him to a new club. Once he went unclaimed, the Brewers had to offer him back to the Dodgers, who’ll now plug Varland back into the upper levels of their system and hope he can recapture some of that eye-catching spring form he showed with the Brew Crew. With Varland back in the Dodgers’ system, six of the 15 players selected in the 2022 Rule 5 Draft have been returned to their original organizations. There’s still another six on active big league rosters, plus three more on their teams’ Major League injured list.

Turning to Lauer, it’s unclear how serious his injury is or how long he is expected to be out of action, but it will be a frustrating and challenging development for the Brewers regardless. The club has already seen each of Brandon Woodruff, Wade Miley, Aaron Ashby and Jason Alexander head to the injured list this season and now Lauer will join them, putting yet another dent into the club’s rotation depth.

Lauer wasn’t off to a great start here in 2023, having posted a 5.48 ERA through his first 42 2/3 innings. His 21.9% strikeout rate, 10.7% walk rate and 25.4% ground ball rate are all worse than league average. He had been much better in the previous two seasons, posting a combined 3.47 ERA over 2021 and 2022 while striking out 23.8% of opponents and walking just 8.7%. Perhaps the shoulder issue has been bothering him prior to this IL placement as his velocity is down on all five of his pitches, relative to last year.

That at least gives some hope of him returning to his previous form once he has time to heal up, but the club will still have to improvise with their starting mix in the meantime. The rotation currently consists of Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta, Adrian Houser and Colin Rea, with one spot needing to be filled. Bryse Wilson has plenty of starting experience but has been in the bullpen with the big league club and can’t be sent down to get stretched out because he’s out of options. Janson Junk is on the 40-man and was called up for a spot start earlier this season, but he’s not throwing exceptionally well in Triple-A this year. He has a 3.86 ERA through 35 innings but a much higher 5.38 FIP thanks to a tepid 17.7% strikeout rate and .277 batting average on balls in play. Robert Gasser is one of the club’s more interesting pitching prospects but he has a 4.74 ERA in Triple-A so far this season and isn’t on the 40-man. Thomas Pannone isn’t on the 40-man either but has major league experience and currently sports a 2.66 ERA in Triple-A this season.

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Los Angeles Dodgers Milwaukee Brewers Rule 5 Draft Transactions Eric Lauer Gus Varland Tyson Miller

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NL Notes: Dodgers, Lauer, Sanchez, Crawford

By Nick Deeds | May 14, 2023 at 1:39pm CDT

Dodgers right-hander Noah Syndergaard threw a 50 pitch bullpen session yesterday, testing a cut on his right index finger that caused him to depart his last start after just one inning. Syndergaard is currently slated to start Monday’s game against the Twins, though JP Hoonstra of the Orange County Register notes that the club plans to pivot to youngster Gavin Stone in the event that Syndergaard is not cleared by Dodgers medical staff. Manager Dave Roberts tells reporters (including Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic) that the plan is for Syndergaard to start tomorrow followed by Clayton Kershaw on Tuesday, though Stone was scratched from his Triple-A start today, a fact which Roberts did not comment on. As noted by Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register, Kershaw may go on the bereavement list following the death of his mother yesterday, but Roberts says Kershaw currently plans on making that decision following Tuesdays start.

Syndergaard, who signed a one-year deal with the Dodgers this past offseason, has struggled in LA to the tune of a 6.12 ERA in 32 1/3 innings of work this season. A .333 BABIP and a strand rate of just 64.3% indicate some of Syndergaard’s woes can be chalked up to bad luck, but it’s clear that the 30-year-old right-hander is scuffling beyond that, as his 14.8% strikeout rate is the worst of his career, as is his 38.4% groundball rate if you exclude the 2021 campaign where he pitched just two innings.

Stone, who made his MLB debut earlier this month, is one of the top prospects in a highly-rated Dodgers farm system. The 24-year-old scuffled in his first taste of big league action, allowing five runs (four earned) on eight hits and two walks over four innings while striking out just one. Despite the rocky start to his big league career, Stone figures to be a major part of the club’s future given the uncertainty in the Dodgers’ rotation following this season, as each of Syndergaard, Julio Urias, and Kershaw could depart after the 2023 campaign.

As for Kershaw, the future Hall of Famer is off to another phenomenal start in his age-35 season, with a 2.36 ERA (188 ERA+) and 3.53 FIP in 49 2/3 innings. Though Kershaw has been dominant all throughout his career, he’s required more and more time on the injured list in recent years; through eight starts in 2023, however, Kershaw has been both healthy dominant as he looks to make more than 22 regular season starts in a season for the first time since 2019.

More from around the National League…

  • The Brewers are set to skip Eric Lauer’s start during the coming turn through the rotation, as noted by Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. For the time being, Lauer will work out of the bullpen. Counsell wouldn’t comment on plans for the longer-term beyond the current turn through the rotation, though Hogg notes that the Brewers hope the move will help Lauer recapture his 2021 form, when he posted a 3.19 ERA in 118 2/3 innings of work. As Hogg notes, Lauer’s struggles go back to last summer, as the 27-year-old lefty has posted a 4.49 ERA in his last 26 starts, with 27 home runs allowed during that time. Lauer’s sojourn to the bullpen figures to make room for right-hander Colin Rea to remain in the rotation for the time being.
  • More details have become available on the minor league deal between the Mets and catcher Gary Sanchez, as The Athletic’s Will Salmon reports that Sanchez has an opt-out in his deal on May 19. That gives New York just a few more days of Sanchez’s guaranteed services in the minors before he can test free agency again to look for a better opportunity elsewhere. Sanchez has raked through four games at Triple-A Syracuse, with six walks and six hits (including a home run) against just five strikeouts in 19 plate appearances. The Mets have suffered a rash of injuries behind the plate, leaving the club with Michael Perez backing up top prospect Francisco Alvarez.
  • Giants shortstop Brandon Crawford was activated from the 10-day IL today, as noted by Maria Guardado of MLB.com. While he’s slotted into the lineup at shortstop, he recently spoke to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale regarding his future. Crawford, whose contract with the Giants is up at season’s end, admits that he’s not sure if he will continue playing beyond 2022, and both manager Gabe Kapler and infield prospect Casey Schmitt have spoken glowingly about Crawford’s willingness to assist Schmitt in his transition to the big leagues. Crawford, the last player standing from the Giants’ trio of World Series championships in the 2010s, is hitting just .169/.244/.352 in 78 plate appearances with the club this season.
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Los Angeles Dodgers Milwaukee Brewers New York Mets Notes San Francisco Giants Eric Lauer Gary Sanchez Gavin Stone Noah Syndergaard

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NL Central Notes: Ashby, Lauer, Peralta, Thompson, Newcomb

By Darragh McDonald | September 19, 2022 at 10:40pm CDT

The Brewers are planning to activate left-hander Aaron Ashby to start tomorrow’s game, tweets Adam McCalvy of MLB.com. Ashby went on the IL August 22 due to shoulder inflammation and will now return after just under a month. The southpaw likely won’t be ticketed for extended duty at first as he hasn’t ventured out onto any kind of rehab assignment. He spoke to McCalvy about the decision, saying that he has been feeling good in recent bullpen sessions, getting up to around 30 pitches.

The Brewers are in a tight postseason race, currently sitting two games behind the Phillies for the final National League Wild Card spot with just over two weeks remaining in the regular season. Given that narrow timeframe, it seems the club has opted to try and get Ashby back on the mound quicker than perhaps they would have under different circumstances. With Eric Lauer and Freddy Peralta also landing on the IL in recent weeks, the club’s rotation has been a bit snakebit recently, which might have also motivated the club to get aggressive with Ashby’s return. Lauer and Peralta could get back into the mix soon as well, with McCalvy relaying that Lauer could return on Friday, though in a short stint similar to Ashby. Peralta might be a bit behind those two, having just started mound work today.

Through 96 1/3 innings on the year, Ashby has a 4.58 ERA with a very strong 27% strikeout rate and 55.6% ground ball rate. However, he’s been held back by a 10% walk rate and a 19.7% HR/FB rate.

Other notes from around the division…

  • Just like the Brewers, the Cubs will also be bringing back one of their starters for truncated work down the stretch. Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune relays word from manager David Ross that right-hander Keegan Thompson will be activated in the coming days to pitch out of the bullpen. Thompson has had a solid sophomore effort here in 2022, throwing 104 1/3 innings so far with a 3.97 ERA, 20.5% strikeout rate, 8.3% walk rate and 40% ground ball rate. His campaign was interrupted by low back tightness, sending him to the IL a month ago. With the season winding down and the Cubs well out of contention, they will let Thompson throw a bit more at the big league level before the offseason arrives.
  • Left-hander Sean Newcomb, designated for assignment by the Cubs on the weekend, has cleared waivers and been outrighted to Triple-A, per Montemurro. That’s hardly surprising, given that Newcomb already cleared waivers earlier this year and has an ERA of 8.78 for the season. Players who have been previously outrighted or those with over three years of MLB service time are eligible to reject outright assignments and elect free agency. Newcomb qualifies on both counts, meaning he could head to the open market if he so chooses, though it’s unclear at this point if he’s made a decision in that regard.
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Chicago Cubs Milwaukee Brewers Notes Aaron Ashby Eric Lauer Freddy Peralta Keegan Thompson Sean Newcomb

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Brewers Place Eric Lauer On 15-Day Injured List

By Mark Polishuk | September 10, 2022 at 5:21pm CDT

The Brewers placed left-hander Eric Lauer on the 15-day injured list due to elbow inflammation.  The placement is retroactive to September 8.  Right-hander Trevor Kelley was called up to take Lauer’s spot on the active roster.

Milwaukee has essentially gone all season without its rotation at full strength, and the injuries have now started to mount up as the Brewers chase an NL wild card berth.  Lauer joins Freddy Peralta and Aaron Ashby as starters on the IL, leaving the Brew Crew with Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Adrian Houser, and Jason Alexander as the provisional starting four.  No immediate decision needs to be made about a rotation replacement since the Brewers have off-days on both Monday and Thursday, but Triple-A hurler Ethan Small is the only other pitcher currently in the organization who has made a start for Milwaukee this season.

With two solid seasons under his belt now, Lauer has emerged as a stable member of the Brewers rotation.  The southpaw has a 3.91 ERA over 145 innings this year, albeit with a below-average 22.8% strikeout rate and 8.6% walk rate.  In fact, Statcast metrics across the board weren’t very favorable to Lauer in either 2021 or 2022, and it seems as though Lauer has benefited from a .257 BABIP.  His 3.58 ERA since the start of the 2021 season is over half a run lower than his 4.19 SIERA.

Still, the bottom-line results are more than enough for a fourth or fifth starter, and prior to this elbow problem, Lauer had also been a pretty stable source of innings amidst several other injuries that sidelined Milwaukee starters.  Losing Lauer and Peralta will further tax an already-struggling Brewers staff — since August 1, Brewers pitchers have a cumulative 1.2 fWAR, the sixth-lowest total of any pitching corps in baseball.  This has contributed to the Brewers’ major slide from NL Central contenders to outside the postseason bracket altogether, 3.5 games behind the Phillies for the last wild card slot.

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Milwaukee Brewers Transactions Eric Lauer Trevor Kelley

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Brewers Planning To Place Freddy Peralta On Injured List

By Anthony Franco | September 8, 2022 at 10:39pm CDT

Brewers starter Freddy Peralta left tonight’s start against the Giants in the third inning. The right-hander’s velocity dipped, and the club announced he’s battling shoulder fatigue. After the game, manager Craig Counsell informed reporters (including Adam McCalvy of MLB.com) that Peralta is likely headed back to the 15-day injured list.

It has to be a frustrating development for the 2021 All-Star, who already lost a good chunk of the year to a lat strain. Since returning from the IL, he’s had some trouble maintaining his strongest form every fifth day. Peralta hadn’t pitched since August 31, as the Brewers pushed his scheduled Monday start back to tonight to buy him a bit more rest. That unfortunately didn’t work out as intended, and it now seems the club will give him at least a couple weeks before he returns to the mound.

While it’s obviously not an ideal situation, both Peralta and Counsell indicated they weren’t especially concerned about his long-term health. Initial evaluations didn’t reveal any structural concerns, and the club is confident the issue is simply one of fatigue. Peralta flatly told reporters (including Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel) that he’ll pitch again this season, expressing confidence he just needs some time to rest his arm.

The injuries have prevented Peralta from replicating last year’s form, when he worked to a 2.81 ERA through 144 1/3 innings. He’s still been plenty effective when healthy, carrying a 3.45 ERA with an above-average 26.6% strikeout rate, but he’s only been able to take the ball 15 times. Needless to say, losing roughly half a season’s workload from an arm of that caliber has been a tough blow for a Milwaukee club jockeying for a playoff spot.

The Brewers are already without Aaron Ashby, who’s been out since August 20 with shoulder inflammation. Milwaukee was dealt another scare yesterday when left-hander Eric Lauer left his start early and was diagnosed with an elbow strain. McCalvy relays tonight that an early MRI was encouraging, and Lauer will go for further evaluation tomorrow. Milwaukee hasn’t placed him on the injured list to this point, so it seems there’s still a chance he’ll be able to make his next start.

Despite Peralta’s early departure, the Brewers held on to sweep today’s doubleheader with San Francisco. That pulled them within 2 1/2 games of the Phillies for the National League’s final Wild Card spot with roughly a month left on the schedule.

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Milwaukee Brewers Eric Lauer Freddy Peralta

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Have The Brewers Developed Another Ace?

By Steve Adams | June 6, 2022 at 3:47pm CDT

The Brewers’ rotation has been its primary strength for the past several seasons. Entering the year the club looked like the favorite in the NL Central (or at least a co-favorite) on the strength of the three-headed monster of Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta and 2021 National League Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes. Brewers starters have indeed been excellent both in the eyes of traditional and newer metrics, ranking fifth in the Majors with a collective 3.36 ERA, fourth with a 3.43 FIP and third with a 3.44 SIERA.

Eric Lauer | Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

The route the Brewers have taken to get there, however, isn’t the one any would’ve forecast heading into the season. Burnes has been predictably excellent, working to a 2.50 ERA on the back of a dominant K-BB% and thus far making a strong bid for a repeat win in the Cy Young balloting. Woodruff, however, is struggling through his worst full season as a starter thanks to an alarming spike in home-run rate, and he recently hit the IL with a high ankle sprain. Peralta, meanwhile, pitched just 38 2/3 innings of 4.42 ERA ball before a lat strain sent him to the injured list. He’s not expected back anytime soon.

So, how have the Brewers continued on as one of the game’s best starting staffs? They’ve received solid if unspectacular work from fifth starter Adrian Houser and some intriguing work from rookie Aaron Ashby, but the biggest driving factor that’s allowed them to weather the Woodruff struggles and Peralta injury has been Eric Lauer’s transformation from back-of-the-rotation arm to what looks like the next great Brewers starter.

Acquired from the Padres alongside Luis Urias in a deal that sent outfielder Trent Grisham and righty Zach Davies to San Diego, Lauer was seen as a back-of-the-rotation option for the Brewers at the time of the swap. That’s understandable, as from 2018-19, he’d been just that with the Padres. Between those two seasons, Lauer tallied 261 2/3 innings of 4.40 ERA ball with a below-average strikeout rate (20.6%), a solid walk rate (8.4%) and below-average ground-ball tendencies (38.9%). Generally speaking, he fit the soft-tossing-lefty mold with which most baseball fans are familiar: strike-thrower who doesn’t overpower opponents but has good command of the zone and keeps his team in the game more often than not.

As recently as the 2020-21 offseason, the trade to acquire Lauer and Urias looked quite lopsided in San Diego’s favor. Lauer tossed just 11 innings for the Brewers in 2020, while Urias provided no real offensive value through 120 plate appearances that season. Grisham, meanwhile, was excellent while playing 59 of 60 games for the Padres that summer, and Davies had the best year of his career by a wide margin (which helped the Padres subsequently include him in the trade to acquire Yu Darvish from the Cubs). Recent play from Urias and especially Lauer has flipped the narrative, though.

Lauer opened the 2021 season with the Brewers’ Triple-A club and spent the first month of the year there before being recalled to the Majors on April 29. Over his first nine appearances (seven starts, two from the bullpen), he posted a nondescript 4.50 ERA/5.08 FIP and garnered little attention. At that point, few would’ve pegged Lauer as a critical cog to the Brewers’ immediate rotation plans.

On July 3 of last season, however, something changed. Lauer threw a slider. It wasn’t the first of his career, but it was his first of the season. He wound up throwing the pitch just under 20% of the time that day, taking his retooled breaking ball for a test drive against a hapless Pirates lineup with good success. Lauer has featured the pitch regularly since, and it’s difficult to overstate just how important it has been to his arsenal.

Since re-debuting the pitch on July 3 last season, FanGraphs ranks Lauer sixth among all Major League starting pitchers in slider runs above average. His slider trails only Dylan Cease, Shohei Ohtani, Max Scherzer, Tarik Skubal and, ever-so-slightly, Brad Keller. That’s a bit misleading, though, as all of those pitchers other than Scherzer throw their slider more often than Lauer. Keller has thrown his slider at a 38.7% clip in that time, while Cease has used his exactly a third of the time. Ohtani is at 28.8% and Skubal at 26.8%. Lauer’s 19.9% usage rate from 2021-22 comes in at exactly half that of Keller. In other words, on a per-pitch basis, Lauer’s slider has been substantially move valuable than all of Cease, Ohtani, Skubal and Keller.

In fact, when shifting to look at slider value per 100 pitches thrown, Scherzer is the only starter in baseball (min. 50 innings) whose slider has generated more value. (Notably, had the beginning of Lauer’s slider usage not coincided almost perfectly with Jacob deGrom’s 2021 season-ending injury, he’d have ranked above Lauer as well, given that deGrom unsurprisingly had the best per-pitch slider in MLB last year.)

Lauer wound up throwing 224 sliders from July 3 onward last season, and in the 73 plate appearances that culminated with that pitch, his opponents batted just .123/.219/.215. He’s thrown 201 sliders this season, finished off 61 plate appearances with the pitch, and yielded just a .140/.180/.193 output to opponents. This season, Statcast ranks Lauer sixth among big league pitchers (min. 50 PAs) with a .221 expected wOBA against his slider. Given the pitch’s success, it’s little surprise that Lauer is throwing it at a career-high 21.9% clip so far in 2022, and you could argue he ought to feature it even more heavily.

All told, since Lauer reincorporated the slider into his arsenal, he’s made 23 starts and pitched to a 2.40 ERA with a 25.2% strikeout rate and a 7.9% walk rate. He’s had some good fortune, evidenced by a .247 average on balls in play and an 83.6% strand rate, but even accounting for some likely regression in those areas, Lauer looks like a completely different pitcher. That’s especially true because the addition of a slider doesn’t appear to be the only meaningful change that’s led to his breakout.

Entering the 2022 season, Lauer had averaged 91.9 mph on his four-seam fastball. He saw a slight uptick from 91.7 mph (2018-20) to 92.5 mph in 2021, however, and he’s sitting at a career-high 93.7 mph so far in 2022. The left-hander told Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel near the end of Spring Training (where he’d also shown a noticeable jump in velocity readings) that his strong finish in 2021 allowed him to shift his offseason focus from searching for flaws in his delivery and refining his mechanics to building strength. Said Lauer at the time:

“It was more a focus on strength training and finally getting used to my body being synched up like it is now. I spent a lot of time this offseason focusing on upper body movement and strength so I think we’re finally seeing everything line up.”

Lauer’s fastball hasn’t morphed into a dominant offering with the newfound velocity, but it’s performed much better — as one would expect upon jumping nearly two miles per hour in a two-year span. The 2020-21 version of Lauer’s heater was a decidedly below-average offering, according to run values from both FanGraphs and Statcast. Both now rate it as a roughly average pitch. Lauer has posted a career-best 12.9% swinging-strike rate (swings-and-misses per total pitches thrown) on his four-seamer in 2022. His 33.3% whiff rate (swings-and-misses per swing) on the four-seamer is up from 26.5% in 2021 and way up from the 21.5% he posted in 2018-19 with San Diego.

Lauer is far from a two-pitch starter, as he’ll also work in a cutter, curveball and more occasional changeup (which also rates excellently on a per-pitch basis). But the improvements he’s made to his four-seamer and especially to his slider have vaulted him from a fairly run-of-the-mill back-end starter to a legitimate weapon who’s helped the Brewers offset downturns in production from Woodruff and Peralta.

Barring an extension, the Brewers control Lauer for two years beyond the current campaign. That timeframe lines up directly with all three of Burnes, Woodruff and Houser. Peralta is signed through 2024, and his contract contains affordable 2025 and 2026 club options for Milwaukee. The aforementioned Ashby, who perhaps merits a deep dive of his own, is controllable all the way through 2027.

Suffice it to say, the long-term outlook for the Brewers’ staff is quite bright. And, if Milwaukee can get Woodruff and Peralta healthy and closer to 2021 form by the season’s final month, their top four starters — paired with Josh Hader and Devin Williams — will again give them the type of formidable staff that can carry a deep postseason run, provided the Brewers’ bats speak louder than they did last October (six total runs in four NLDS games against the Braves).

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MLBTR Originals Milwaukee Brewers Eric Lauer

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