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Winter Meetings Preview: Nationals’ Trade Chips

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The World Champion Washington Nationals are waiting with the rest of us for the major free agent dominoes to fall, but in the meantime, there’s work to do. One such task might be finding trade partners for any number of current Nationals who are out of minor league options. Michael A. Taylor, Wilmer Difo, Adrian Sanchez, Raudy Read, Erick Fedde, Joe Ross, and Austin Voth are all potential trade candidates, per MASN’s Mark Zuckerman.

The players listed above can no longer be shuttled back and forth between the minor leagues without being exposed to waivers – they either make the Opening Day roster, get traded elsewhere, or the Nats will risk losing them for nothing through the waiver claim process. Granted, this isn’t exactly Anthony Rendon or Stephen Strasburg. Washington can take their chances and not be overexposed. But if there’s value to return, GM Mike Rizzo might do well to look for it this week in San Diego.

On the position player side, there’s not much to offer. Taylor has become somewhat of a folklore “postseason specialist,” and there’s room for him on the roster as a fourth outfielder. But he’ll turn 29 in March, and his bygone ceiling as a second division starter has been replaced with legitimate questions about whether he carries enough bat to make the 26-man roster. He’s somewhat inexplicably beloved by a large contingent of fans in the DMV, but the Nationals may very well explore finding another option as insurance should Juan Soto, Victor Robles, and Adam Eaton not prove as healthy as they were in 2019. Taylor is a capable defender and baserunner, but he’s also due over $3MM, carries a career .240/.294/.393 batting line across over 1700 big league plate appearances, and he’s coming off a season spent almost entirely in Double-A (though for Washington, Double-A served as a holding grounds for potential call-ups, since their Triple-A team was located across the country in Fresno).

Difo is of a similar mold, but in the infield and without the postseason heroics. Neither Difo nor Sanchez are likely to bring back anything via trade, nor should they really be relied upon by the Nats. Difo will turn 28 this year, Sanchez 30, and there’s just not much upside to mine. Read is a 26-year-old catcher with pop who is out of options despite only 22 big league plate appearances. His power numbers in Triple-A last year (.546 SLG) are enough to crane a neck or two, and the Nats are probably fine with Tres Barrera serving as their emergency third catcher.

Where this gets interesting is with the trio of pitchers who rotated in and out of the Nats’ fifth starter spot. Fedde, Ross, and Voth all experienced some degree of success in 2019, though not one is a sure thing to make the roster.

Ross’ overall numbers (5.48 ERA/4.59 FIP) are ugly, but they’re largely attributable to a horrid run in the bullpen. As a starter in the second half, Ross went 4-2 with a 3.02 ERA, showing signs of finally returning to the mid-rotation form he flashed as a younger player. Though high heat is in vogue, Ross hit his stride when his sinker became a primary offering as it had been before injuries derailed his career. Call me crazy – and this brand of breakout is hardly normative enough to form an archetype – but there’s hints of Jake Arrieta here. Ross is just two years from free agency, and even his second half performance is probably more than should be expected moving forward – but after a 1.05 ERA across five starts in August, Ross certainly became a guy a front office can dream on.

There was a time when those within the Nats’ organization were aligned on Voth as nothing more than organizational filler, and he was the last guy on the Nats’ 40-man roster to get a look in the show last year, but he added a couple ticks to his fastball and pitched to a 3.30 ERA/3.70 FIP across 43 2/3 inning worth 1.2 bWAR. Should Strasburg return to Washington, Voth and Ross are probably dueling for the fifth starter spot. It’s also hard to imagine the Nats defending their title with both in the rotation even if Strasburg departs. Still, given the strides shown by Ross and Voth last season, it’s not inconceivable.

Fedde could be the odd man out, but there’s enough of a pedigree to at least explore his value on the trade market. The 26-year-old right-hander was a top-4 Nationals prospect by Baseball America from 2014 to 2017, topping out as the #82 prospect in baseball following the 2015 season. He’s a former first round pick with a Tommy John surgery already in the rearview. The results the last few seasons have been mixed (4.50 ERA in 2019), but there’s no major trauma, and speculatively speaking, he’d be a good fit every fifth day for a younger team like the Blue Jays or Orioles.

Max Scherzer Not Yet Back To Full Health

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Max Scherzer is back in the Nationals rotation, but he’s not yet back to full health, per MLB.com’s Jamal Collier. How he feels the day after a start is a touchstone for Scherzer, who classified his own health status as “not out of the woods yet.”

In what amounted to a rehab start, Scherzer went four innings in a series finale win in Pittsburgh on Thursday, but as he gutted out a 4-inning, 71-pitch return, he was clearly working a gear or two below normal. It’s uncertain how long it will take before he’s back to full-blown Mad Max status.

Still, Scherzer remains ever-confident in his ability to not only bounce back, but potentially emerge stronger. “You know, heck, in some ways this might make me a better pitcher,” Scherzer said, per Collier. “When I come out on the other side, I may be a better pitcher because of this because of what I’m learning how to do right now and how to still be sharp and yet still be controlled. So let’s look at this glass half full.”

While that’s certainly a scary proposition for opposing hitters, simply returning to full health as one of the two or three best pitchers in the game would be more than enough progress for the Nationals.

Scherzer’s understudy has also been dealing with an injury scare, but Joe Ross is set to make his scheduled start today at Wrigley Field. Ross had been immaculate in holding the line with a 0.42 ERA in four starts before a Josh Bell line drive off his shin forced him to leave his last start early.

As for Erick Fedde, the presumptive fifth starter before Ross’ recent run, he could eventually move to the bullpen. For now, he will likely get at least one more turn in the rotation. Dave Martinez suggested the Nats might keep a 6-man rotation for the next week or so. Even with days off already built in, the Nats would err on the side of caution in giving everyone an extra day or two between turns as they gear up for the final push in September. After all, even the Nats healthy contingent of starters – Stephen Strasburg, Patrick Corbin, Anibal Sanchez – have dealt with injuries in the past. Of course, if the Nats offense keeps this up – they’re averaging 10 runs per game over their last 9 games – Scherzer can take all the time he needs.

Injury Notes: Strickland, Elias, Ross, Arrieta, Eickhoff, Kluber

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The Nationals pitching staff has taken another hit, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (Twitter links). Reliever Hunter Strickland is having X-rays taken at PNC park after a bar struck him across the face. The injury stems from a weight room accident, but Strickland was up and about, playing catch ahead of tonight’s contest in Pittsburgh. It’s unclear whether he will be available out of the pen tonight. Strickland has been great since coming over to the Nats at the deadline, looking fully the part of the eighth-inning reliever they’ve longed for all season. He’s 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA/3.07 FIP and 5 holds in 8 contests. At best, Strickland’s mishap may lead to a second Washington pitcher taking the hill with more black-and-blue in the color scheme than usual. While we’re here, let’s check in on another couple of notes from Washington and beyond…

  • Strickland’s travel buddy from Seattle, Roenis Elias, remains out after injuring himself running out a groundball in his first appearance as a National. He could be close to returning from the strained hamstring, however, as he plans to throw off a mound for the first time since the injury this upcoming Thursday, tweets MASNsports.com’s Mark Zuckerman.
  • Dougherty also provided an update on Joe Ross, who left last night’s blowout win after taking a Josh Bell one-hopper off the shin. His leg is wrapped, but Dave Martinez says the plan is for Ross to be ready to go for his next scheduled start on Saturday. Ross has pitched with newfound fervor since taking Max Scherzer’s spot in the rotation. Less four-seamers and a heavy reliance on his power sinker have at least been part of the story for the rejuvenated Ross. In four starts since the trade deadline, he’s thrown 21 1/3 innings with a hard-to-believe 0.42 ERA. Coming into August, Ross had a 9.85 ERA over 24 2/3 innings that spanned 18 games out of the bullpen and 1 start. If he’s healthy enough to go Saturday, the 5th spot in the Nats rotation appears his. If not, Erick Fedde will be ready to go.
  • The Phillies transferred Jake Arrieta to the 60-day injured list today, the team announced. Arrieta was already known to be out for the year because of a bone spur in his elbow that requires surgery. This move is but the paperwork allowing Jerad Eickhoff to be reinstated and sent to Triple-A. Eickhoff should have the final ten days or so in August to fine tune with Lehigh Valley, as he would be expected to join the Phillies when rosters expand in September.
  • Corey Kluber’s recent setback was due to abdominal tightness experience during a rehab start on Sunday, the Indians announced. The final diagnosis was an internal oblique strain. Kluber has been shut down to begin a rehab program with the hopes of being reevaluated and cleared to resume throwing in two weeks time. Obviously, that’s a very loose timetable, as Kluber’s return will depend entirely on his progress over this next fortnight.

Nationals Place Max Scherzer On 10-Day IL

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The Nationals have placed ace righty Max Scherzer on the 10-day injured list, per a club announcement. Erick Fedde was called up to take his active-roster spot.

Scherzer is dealing with a mild rhomboid strain, the second seemingly minor upper back/shoulder malady he has come down with this year. The hope remains that the superb starter will not miss too much time, but it was evidently determined he’d be sidelined long enough to warrant a move to bring in another arm.

It’s a balancing act for Scherzer and the Nats. Both would obviously prefer that he be on the mound right now, but the issues he’s experiencing are in a worrying area of the body. The club must also ensure it has Scherzer at full health down the stretch.

Fedde, 26, has delivered 50 1/3 innings of 3.40 ERA ball this year in eight starts and five relief appearances. Unfortunately, he’s also carrying an uninspiring blend of 26 strikeouts and 21 walks. He’ll help hold down the fort for the time being, but the Nats have an obvious need to add hurlers over the next two days.

Nationals Send Austin Voth To Double-A, Activate Max Scherzer From Paternity List

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The Nationals activated Max Scherzer today from the paternity list after his wife gave birth to their second child yesterday. Scherzer is expected to make his last start of the first half today wearing the Expos’ powder blue road jersey against the Royals.

Current fifth starter Austin Voth, meanwhile, has been sent to Double-A Harrisburg. The Nationals have a bizarre minor league setup in that the closeness of Harrisburg has been utilized all season to keep major-league-ready players nearby for quick activation, rather than sending them cross-country to their Triple-A affiliate in Fresno.

Voth took three turns through the rotation, holding his own while also struggling to clamp down and finish a third time through the order. He did not take a decision, lasting less than five innings apiece in his final two starts after a strong season debut against Atlanta. He heads to Harrisburg with a 5.52 ERA after showing strong stuff with 9.8 K/9 and a fastball that routinely hit 95mph, but five walks tanked his final two outings and the Nats ultimately went on to lose all three games that he started.

The Nationals will not need a fifth starter until July 17th, MASN’s Mark Zuckerman tweets, so the Nats have some time before they need to decide whether Voth will reclaim the role. Erick Fedde had occupied the spot before Voth, while Jeremy Hellickson remains out for the foreseeable future after being moved to the 60-day IL with right shoulder stiffness. Both Fedde and Voth pitched well enough at times to earn consideration for further evaluation, though Voth’s peripherals and fairly substantive year-over-year jump in velocity (from 91.3 mph to 93 mph) may signal a more compelling arsenal.

Still, neither outright staked their claim to the job, and with the Nationals back in the heat of a playoff race, they could look elsewhere to find a more established fifth option for their already-stacked rotation.

Nationals Shut Down Jeremy Hellickson

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Nationals righty Jeremy Hellickson has been sidelined since mid May due to a shoulder strain, and it doesn’t appear as though he’ll be returning in the near future. Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com tweeted today that the Nats have shut Hellickson down from throwing due to ongoing soreness in his problematic right shoulder. He’d been on a long-toss program.

Hellickson, 32, was a nice pickup for the Nats on a minor league deal in 2018 when he gave them 91 1/3 innings of 3.45 ERA ball with a 65-to-20 K/BB ratio through 19 starts. That prompted the Nats and Hellickson to reunite on a one-year pact back in February — a deal that promised the former AL Rookie of the Year a modest $1.3MM salary (plus additional incentive opportunities). He’s already picked up $600K worth of incentives, securing $200K bonuses for his third, fifth and seventh starts of the season.

The 2019 season has been an entirely different story for Hellickson, who hit the injured list back on May 19 after seeing his ERA rise to 6.23. After allowing just 11 homers in 91 1/3 frames last year, he’s already served up nine long balls. Hellickson’s average fastball is down from 89.7 mph to 88.5 mph, and he’s seen his BB/9 mark spike from 1.97 a year ago to 4.62 in 2019.

Hellickson was one of three starting pitchers signed to Major League deals this winter, and while it’s hard to overstate Patrick Corbin’s early excellence in the first season of his $140MM contract, the team’s investments in Hellickson and Anibal Sanchez haven’t paid dividends yet. A disastrous bullpen has been the main culprit in Washington’s shockingly poor start to the season, but the tough outings at the back of the rotation have been a significant factor in the Nats’ 23-32 record as well.

With Hellickson out for a yet-to-be-determined period, the Nationals will likely look to Erick Fedde in the fifth spot of the rotation. Based on the pair’s 2019 output, it’s an upgrade for the Nationals. Fedde has a 2.25 ERA with a 27-to-5 K/BB ratio in 24 2/3 innings of Triple-A ball so far and has also given the Nats 20 2/3 frames with a 2.18 ERA in the big leagues. His 12-to-8 K/BB ratio and a pair of hit batsmen create some cause for concern with regard to Fedde’s MLB showing, but the former first-round pick and top prospect certainly at least merits a look.

Erick Fedde Auditioning For Expanded Role In Nationals Bullpen

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Results have been good thus far for Erick Fedde, who in limited action has made a good impression on a struggling Nationals bullpen, per Byron Kerr of MASN Sports. Fedde, a starter in the minors, was brought up for the first time this season on April 28th – and he immediately made an impact. He threw four scoreless innings in relief of Jeremy Hellickson against the Padres that day, keeping a 6-0 deficit at bay and giving the Nationals young bats a chance to heat up. Juan Soto, Victor Robles, and Carter Kieboom became the first trio of teammates younger than 22-years-old to homer in the same game as the Nationals came back to beat the Friars 7-6 in 10 innings. In an unceremonious thank-you, however, Fedde was sent back to Double-A the very next day. 

In Harrisburg, Fedde has roasted the competition so far this season, 2.55 ERA, 2.84 FIP, 2.63 xFIP with 9.85 K/9 to 1.82 BB/9, which includes two-thirds of a combined no-hitter in early April. Fedde, 26, is miscast in Double-A after a full season between Triple-A Syracuse and the majors in 2018, but with their Triple-A affiliate now cross-country in Fresno, the Nationals have kept a few ML-hopefuls close at hand in Harrisburg. Current teammates in D.C. Dan Jennings, Michael A. Taylor, and Adrian Sanchez have all spent time in Harrisburg this year before recalls with quick turnarounds. Fedde is back in the Nats’ bullpen now and potentially in line to take on a larger role, whether as a long man, in a setup capacity, or both.

There is little doubt as to the need for the Nationals, whose bullpen has imploded time and again in 2019 as Dave Martinez searches for a reliable option in the middle-to-late innings. The three-headed monster in the rotation (Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Patrick Corbin) somewhat mitigates usage of the pen (111 innings is the lowest mark in the National League), and Sean Doolittle is as good as it gets at the back-end, but there’s still that pesky eighth inning to worry about, and forty percent of the rotation is not among the NL’s top ten in strikeouts, K/9, innings, and WAR as are Scherzer, Strasburg, and Corbin. (Admittedly, Corbin ranks tied for 14th in the NL with 1.0 fWAR, though his 2.0 rWAR jumps him to second by that measure, while rWAR drops Scherzer out of the top ten into a seven-way tie for 12th. Among those seven is Doolittle, tied with John Gant for the NL rWAR lead among relievers.) Anibal Sanchez and Jeremy Hellickson have lasted six full innings only once apiece en route to respective ERAs of 5.27 and 5.52, and between the implosion of Trevor Rosenthal, some bad bounces, and a difficulty in stranding inherited runners, the bullpen ahead of Doolittle has been a mess. 

Washington’s pen boasts some ugly numbers with a 6.24 ERA, 5.06 xFIP, .342 BABIP, and 65.1 LOB% – all of which rank dead last in the Majors. Still, it’s hard to know exactly what the Nationals have in their pen, as BABIP and LOB% have a tendency to fluctuate, and many of their pen hands have much stronger FIPs than ERAs (Wander Suero, Matt Grace, Joe Ross), and while that could point to some bad luck, they have an equal number of arms on the flip side of the ledger as Doolittle, Justin Miller and Kyle Barraclough’s ERAs are all outperforming xFIP. Outside of Doolittle, the pen is functioning largely without defined roles so far this season, which is where Fedde’s newfound versatility could prove invaluable. Fedde is adjusting to life in a potential fireman role, but if he can muster a quality outing or two in high-leverage situations – arguably the Nats’ greatest area of need – he will make it very difficult for the Washington brass to shuttle him back to Harrisburg.

NL East Notes: Mets, Rosario, Nats’ Injuries, Marlins, Cooper

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Amed Rosario’s defensive struggles have emerged as a point of concern for the scuffling Mets, who will weigh what to do with the shortstop if he can’t correct his errors soon. Ken Davidoff of the New York Post outlines the problem, writing that general manager Brodie Van Wagenen, who has been aggressive in his first year at the helm, cannot afford to keep Rosario in the lineup for much longer when his lackluster defense could cost the club crucial wins. Rosario, just 23 years of age, is still a developing player and sustained reps could be the best remedy to his early-season challenges. However, a competitive Mets team that finds itself in the thick of a heated division race may run out of patience with Rosario, who is not hitting enough to quell the defensive concerns. To be sure, Davidoff notes that Rosario went eight straight games without an error before Saturday, when his two errors didn’t help the Mets’ cause in a marathon loss to the Brewers. The Mets are not yet considering a demotion—it will take another week or more before that becomes a serious possibility, per Davidoff—but Rosario could get a few days off if he can’t correct things in the next few games. Rosario has already accumulated -11 DRS—last season, he checked in at -16—and the Mets have Adeiny Hechavarria and Luis Guillorme as backup options, if it comes to that.

Here’s the latest news from around the NL East…

  • Nationals right-hander Erick Fedde will be deployed as a reliever moving forward, writes Mark Zuckerman of MASN. After an impressive 4-inning outing against the Padres last week—his first Major League relief appearance—the club has decided that he will continue to work out of the bullpen in Double-A rather than returning to the Harrisburg rotation. The plan is for Fedde to rejoin the Nationals soon, in hopes that he will help remedy a bullpen that has arguably been the worst in the Majors.
  • The Nationals will have to work around yet another injury, as Matt Adams was placed on the 10-day IL with a left shoulder strain on Saturday, recalling infielder Jake Noll. Meanwhile, the team will certainly welcome a piece of good news: Anthony Rendon is expected to rejoin the team on Tuesday, when he is eligible to return from his stint on the injured list, per Todd Dybas of NBC Sports. Rendon had been dealing with an elbow contusion that refused to heal, but he was finally able to take swings, indicating that a return is on the horizon.
  • The Mets’ bullpen took another hit on Saturday, as southpaw Luis Avilan was placed on the 10-day IL with elbow tightness, according to Tim Healey of Newsday. Avilan, who has posted a dismal 9.28 ERA in 2019, joins fellow bullpen arms Jeurys Familia and Justin Wilson on the injured list. Tim Peterson and Tyler Bashlor were promoted to replace Chris Flexen and Ryan O’Rourke, both of whom were optioned to the minors. Flexen took Avilan’s place for Saturday’s game because Peterson and Bashlor were unavailable.
  • In a stroke of bad luck, Marlins OF/1B Garrett Cooper finds himself once again on the injured list, this time with a left hand contusion, writes Joe Frisaro of MLB.com. After a calf strain held him out of action for a month, Cooper returned on April 30, only to be hit in the hand by a pitch, causing the injury. Peter O’Brien has been recalled from Triple-A to replace Cooper, who has been limited to just 4 appearances so far this season.

Nationals Outright Tommy Milone, Promote Victor Robles, Activate Joe Ross

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The Nationals announced today that they have outrighted lefty Tommy Milone after activating him from the 10-day disabled list. That move opened a roster spot for the team’s promotion of righty Kyle McGowin, as had been expected.

In addition to McGowin, the Nats will call up outfielder Victor Robles, infielder Adrian Sanchez, and righty Austin Voth. Notably, too, the organization has activated righties Joe Ross and Erick Fedde from the DL.

It’s not terribly surprising to learn that Milone’s roster spot was put to use in another way. The 31-year-old returned to the organization with which he got his start, but functioned as a depth piece. He ended up throwing 26 1/3 innings of 5.81 ERA ball, with 23 strikeouts and only a single walk, in the majors. Milone will have the right to elect free agency now or at season’s end.

While it’s obviously quite common to see a few younger players filter up to the majors at this point in the season, the Nats have some fairly notable names moving onto the MLB roster. In particular, Robles is returning after missing a big chunk of the season due to injury. He could be an important part of the outfield picture next year.

Of arguably greater importance, as concerns the organization’s offseason plans, is the return of Ross and Fedde. The former underwent Tommy John surgery last July, while the latter had been sidelined by shoulder problems. It’s clear the Nats will be looking for starters over the coming winter, but the showing of this pair could help dictate how many and what level of arms are pursued.

Quick Hits: Buxton, Upton, Nationals, A’s

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The Twins won’t be recalling Byron Buxton to the Major League roster, a decision that puts the team in line to gain an extra year of control over the young outfielder.  The situation has already created controversy, and there seems to be at least a chance that Buxton and his representatives at Jet Sports Management could look into filing a grievance with the league.  In a statement to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (subscription required), agency owner B.B. Abbott said “We will examine this against the rights provided to all players under the CBA.  Until then, we will let Twins fans form their own opinions about this decision.”  MLBPA executive director Tony Clark also commented on Buxton, saying that the union “will review all options with Byron and his representatives.”

Minnesota GM Thad Levine did mention that the team was aware of Buxton’s service time circumstances, and Rosenthal is skeptical about the three larger factors (concerns about the wrist injury that sent Buxton to the DL, a lack of room in the Twins outfield, and “a performance standpoint factor“) that Levine cited as the chief reasons for Buxton remaining in Triple-A.  Buxton has not only been healthy enough to play regularly in Triple-A, Rosenthal observes, but the outfielder has also been hitting quite well in recent games.  Rosenthal wonders if the Twins’ desire to retain Buxton for an extra season will cost them in the long run, as Buxton may now be soured on signing a longer-term extension to remain in Minnesota beyond 2022.

Here’s more from around baseball on this Labor Day weekend…

  • Justin Upton suffered a concussion while avoiding a collision with Angels teammate Andrelton Simmons during Saturday’s game, the outfielder told MLB.com’s Maria Guardado and other reporters.  Upton came out of the game and didn’t play on Sunday, as he’ll be out of action until his symptoms fully subside.  Upton’s first full season in a Halos uniform has been an impressive one, as the 31-year-old has 26 homers and a .265/.349/.467 slash line over 533 plate appearances.
  • The Nationals will activate right-hander Erick Fedde from the 60-day DL to start Tuesday’s game, Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com writes.  Fedde has been sidelined with inflammation in his throwing shoulder, the latest in a series of injuries that has set back his young career.  Fedde has only 43 1/3 Major League innings to his name over 2017-18, though he’ll get a chance at showcasing himself in September.  As Zuckerman notes, the Nationals may use Gio Gonzalez’s former rotation spot to give starts to multiple young arms, including Fedde and possibly Joe Ross, who is on track to make his return from Tommy John surgery sometime this month.
  • With the Athletics rolling, John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle wonders why the team hasn’t extended manager Bob Melvin, who is only under contract through the 2019 season.  Failing to keep Melvin (or, for that matter, baseball operations head Billy Beane and GM David Forst) from “lame-duck status” in the final year of their deals threatens to undermine the progress that the A’s have made this season, Shea opines.  Back in June, the Chronicle’s Susan Slusser reported that there some belief that the team’s upper management wouldn’t retain Beane, Forst, and/or Melvin beyond the end of their current contracts.  If this was ownership’s plan, however, one wonders if things have changed in the wake of the Athletics’ hot streak and return to contention.
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