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Erik Bedard

Padres Look To Extend Peavy

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Jake Peavy will soon add a Cy Young to his resume, and the Padres would like to explore a contract extension with him.  Under his current contract, Peavy will earn $6.5MM in ’08 and $11MM in ’09 once he wins the award.  The Padres would like to extend him for the 2010 and 2011 seasons and possibly more.

Peavy realizes the Padres won’t give him the $18MM+ per year he could earn on the free market.  But an extension for 2010-11 in the range of $32-35MM could work.

It’s been assumed that any team trading for Peavy this winter would have him for two seasons.  However, that isn’t the case – Tom Krasovic says he could opt for free agency after ’08 as a player traded during a multiyear deal.  I assume Dan Haren has the same right, but Erik Bedard does not.  That certainly bumps up Bedard’s value.

Krasovic also adds that the Padres have their eye on Jim Edmonds and Ryan Church as center field options.  The Padres would expect Edmonds to be a salary dump and the Cards to throw in some cash.  Meanwhile Jim Bowden has a high asking price for Church.

Orioles To Attempt To Extend Bedard

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It looks like Erik Bedard is Andy MacPhail’s top priority right now.  He’s already gauged the trade interest for his ace, and is now exploring the idea of a contract extension.

Jeff Zrebiec says the Mets, Yankees, Angels, and Dodgers expressed interest in the southpaw starter.  Interesting to see the Halos in the mix.  The Dodgers are pushing the hardest for him.  Two years of Bedard is expected to cost a team three MLB-ready players.  The names mentioned for the Dodgers are Jonathan Broxton, Matt Kemp, and Clayton Kershaw.  While Kershaw’s not MLB-ready, I doubt the Orioles would mind.  Zrebiec says the problem with the Dodgers is that Kemp and Kershaw would be part of a Miguel Cabrera package.

What would a contract extension cost?  I’m thinking it would require something like four years, $65MM to cover the two team-controlled years and two years of free agency.

Zrebiec also mentions that the Mets inquired on Ramon Hernandez, but found the price of a high-end prospect prohibitive.

Orioles Will Listen On Bedard

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New Orioles president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail confirms what we’ve been reading for the past few months: the club will at least listen to offers for ace Erik Bedard.  He adds that the O’s have had preliminary, general extension talks with Bedard.    I imagine that if Bedard is looking for the $18-20MM per year he could get on the open market, the O’s will choose to trade him.  Two years of Bedard is at least as good as one of Johan Santana, and Bedard doesn’t have any no-trade stipulations.  He made just $3.4MM this year.

What are your thoughts on a reasonable package the O’s might get for Bedard?  The typical Matt Kemp/Clayton Kershaw speculation seems to fit here.   

MacPhail also admits that he’d prefer to have flexibility rather than all the long-term contracts the team has committed to.  He expects an active trade market, and you can bet the Orioles will be in the middle.  Miguel Tejada is likely to be dealt, especially if his name is absent from the Mitchell Report.

Odds and Ends: Hunter, A-Rod, Bedard

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Sunday morning minor rumor collection…

  • There’s always some skepticism from readers regarding Charley Walters rumors.  Nonetheless I’ll report that he names the Nationals, White Sox, Braves, Yankees, and Dodgers as teams that will bid for Torii Hunter.  I don’t see the Braves getting involved at $15MM per.  And are the Dodgers ready to move Juan Pierre to left field already?  The other clubs named seem reasonable.
  • As expected, the Cardinals interviewed Chris Antonetti for their open GM position.  No doubt it’s an attractive position but you have to wonder what kind of autonomy he’d have with Tony La Russa around.
  • Larry LaRue makes the case for the Mariners tendering a contract to Horacio Ramirez.  He also notes that Jose Guillen is as good as gone and the Ms won’t consider A-Rod.
  • Speaking of that guy, Bill Price suggests the Mets should sign him and move David Wright to first base.  Carlos Delgado I suppose would be a very expensive pinch-hitter in 2008. 
  • Nick Cafardo expects the Orioles to shop Miguel Tejada this winter, which would surprise no one.  But he’s also hearing that Erik Bedard could be available.  Trades of either might be unpopular with the fanbase.  The trade market for starters could be hopping if Johan Santana, Bedard, and C.C. Sabathia are made available.
  • Joel Sherman says Koji Uehara is a free agent, but we have heard differently.  Anyway, the success of Hideki Okajima may create a minor bidding war for Hitoki Iwase.

Could A-Rod Save the O’s?

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Update:  Beat writer Jeff Zrebiec reports that yesterday Miguel Tejada told O’s President of Baseball Operations Andy McPhail, "I don’t care about changing positions if we’re going to be a winner, and I want to be on a team that is going to compete and win."  That is a change of tune from the once stubborn shortstop.  Orioles Manager Dave Trembley also said, "I fully expect that he’ll be a major part of this team next season."

The Orioles pitchers have been going the extra mile to make Alex Rodriguez feel at home in Camden Yards this weekend, writes Peter Schmuck.  Schmuck doesn’t add too much to the notion; however, he does suggest that, for a team at the mercy of indecision – do we sign big names or rebuild from within? – Alex Rodriguez, should he opt out of his contract, is one apparent solution.

The O’s need desperately to revive their franchise and A-Rod could certainly do that.  A new long term contract for Arod will have him chasing baseball’s greatest records with whom he signs.  Meanwhile, Miguel Tejada will either be moved to 3B or another team.  Considering his decline in defense, productivity, and attitude it seems the Orioles should lower their demands and trade him this offseason.  That would open up an obvious hole at shortstop, a spot once celebrated by Cal Ripken, and an opportunity that could entice Rodriguez and save the Orioles.

That said, I’m not sure the O’s could afford a potential $30MM player.  They have a total payroll of $93.5MM in 2007, already up 20% from 2006, and at an all-time high.  If they deal Tejada, it’s probable they swallow some of his $13MM/year.  The departure of Benson and Wright free up another $14MM.  If they could void Jay Gibbons’ contract, they’d be looking in the ballpark of $30MM before arbitration for Erik Bedard and others, various departures, etc.  It seems probable they would have to again increase payroll to afford A-Rod.

Posted by: Nat Boyle

Rosenthal’s Latest Video: Pudge, Bedard, Burrell

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Ken Rosenthal has a new video up; check it out.  Some highlights:

  • Back in April, I made predictions of whether various club options will be exercised for 2008.  My opinion on many of the option decisions has changed since then.  One example is Ivan Rodriguez.  At the time I said his defense and power would justify the $10MM difference between his $13MM option and $3MM buyout.  Currently, Pudge is hitting for his usual decent average but has drawn just five walks in 379 plate appearances.  Rosenthal believes the Tigers might opt for the buyout, especially if Rodriguez tails off as the season wears on.  Maybe so, but at effectively one year, $10MM, they might still go for it.  The other options are limited. 
  • The Orioles’ #1 priority for the offseason is to sign ace Erik Bedard to a long-term contract extension.  But if the two parties aren’t in the same ballpark, they could exact a king’s ransom in a trade.  As I said before, Bedard could be a $20MM+ pitcher if he stays on course through the 2009 season.
  • Pat Burrell cleared waivers, but the Phillies have no intention of trading him given the way he’s been hitting.  Burrell has an absurd .392/.519/.725 line since July 1.  No one has been better in OBP over that time period, and only Hanley Ramirez has a better SLG.  Anyway, I’ve updated the list of players who have cleared waivers.

Erik Bedard’s Long-Term Future

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According to that lovable Baseball Prospectus stat, VORP, Erik Bedard and Mark Buehrle are in a dead heat for the second best performance by an American League pitcher to date.  Dan Haren still maintains the lead.  Haren also heads up ESPN’s Cy Young predictor, but that’s where the rankings deviate.  John Lackey, Josh Beckett, C.C. Sabathia, and J.J. Putz all rank ahead of Bedard for the Cy Young based on ESPN’s model.  VORP and awards voting are two very different things.

But Bedard has won his last eight decisions, and could move up the rankings quickly.  Bedard’s age 28 breakout season has included major improvements in all of his peripheral stats, especially his strikeout rate.  He’s not due for free agency until after the 2009 season, and earns only $3.4MM this year.  Sometime last year, the Orioles offered Bedard a four-year extension worth less than $20MM.  That would’ve bought out one year of free agency.  Of course, Bedard passed. 

The price since has gone up drastically, and will continue rising if Bedard can log several 200 inning seasons.  You have to think he’ll take his big shot at free agency when he’s at his peak value.  And he wouldn’t be in the $14MM hometown discount Mark Buehrle range.  I think he’d be up at in the $18MM Zito/Zambrano range, and that would be if he reached free agency this winter.  Imagine how things will be when two more winters pass.  We can barely picture it.  I can see Bedard getting a massive deal at  $22MM per.  The Blue Jays might be a fit.

Phils Targeting Longer-Term Contracts at Trade Deadline

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As the non-waiver trade deadline appears on the horizon, it is natural to focus on players that are just a few months away from free-agency as likely trade candidates.

But that doesn’t mean players who still have a few years left on their contracts won’t be dealt.  Pat Gillick, Phillies GM, recently stated that those are just the types of pitchers the Phillies are interested in acquiring over the next month or so.  From Phillyburbs.com: “We’re looking at guys who would have contracts that run for 2008 and 2009,” he said. “Really, we have to find the right situation. We’re not necessarily looking for a rental player. We want someone who could be a piece for us.”

It makes sense to focus longer-term as Freddy Garcia and Jon Lieber, who are both injured and likely lost for the season, will depart via free agency in the fall.  That leaves Cole Hamels, Adam Eaton, and possibly Jamie Moyer and Brett Myers for the rotation.  But Moyer could retire and Myers may keep his role as closer so the back end of the rotation is by no means set beyond 2007 (heck, it’s not even set beyond the All-Star break).  To make matters worse, there is little to no help on the horizon in the Phillies farm system.  Kyle Kendrick has held his own in recent weeks, but until we see more of him, the jury is out.

The trick will be finding a pitcher who is under contract whose team is far enough out of contention — not only for 2007, but also 2008 — that they would be willing to part with him.  Scanning the standings, it’s hard to envision a scenario, but when it comes to Pat Gillick, it’s helpful to look at his past history since he often brings in players and front office personnel from his previous stops.  Once such stop is Baltimore, and Erik Bedard, who is blossoming into a frontline starter is under control there for two more seasons.  Even though Gillick departed before Bedard was drafted, it’s possible that he was on his radar nonetheless.

If the Orioles don’t feel they can retain Bedard long-term, they might be wise to listen to offers and begin another rebuilding.

Tom Goyne is the author of Balls, Sticks, & Stuff, a Phillies-centric site, and maintains the Phloggers’ Pheeds page, a source for the latest commentary from around the "phlogosphere". Recently, he teamed up with his brother to launch Roto Front Office.

Bedard To Join Jays In 2010?

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Blue Jays play-by-play guy Jamie Campbell has a blog, and he’s got an interesting rumor up today.  Campbell speaks of a "prominent member of the Orioles organization" telling him to expect Erik Bedard in a Blue Jays uniform for the 2010 season.

Campbell points out Bedard’s Canadian roots and the Orioles’ inability to sign him long-term as factors.  He sees a possible rotation of Roy Halladay, A.J. Burnett, Bedard, and two youngsters in 2010.

Campbell notes that Burnett can opt out of his contract after the 2008 season.  He’d be walking away from three years and $36MM.  If he stays relatively healthy and keeps his ERA in the low 4s, you can bet he’ll top 3/36.

 

Phils’ Attempted Starter Acquisitions

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Remember about a week ago, when Pat Gillick mentioned that the Phillies’s deal for a #1 or #2 starter had fallen through?  I’m received a fair amount of emails on this topic, so I wanted to address it.  I talked my Phils source, and he gave me the lowdown.  He mentioned that most if not all of these names had previously appeared in the media linked to the Phillies, but I’ll present the information anyway.

Mark Prior was never the Phillies’ number one choice.  They’ve always been lukewarm on him due to his health record.  Had the Cubs parted with Carlos Zambrano, the Phillies would’ve happily dealt Bobby Abreu.

The Phillies like Erik Bedard quite a bit.  The problem is that the Orioles are actually looking to acquire a starting pitcher, not give one up.  So although the Orioles have soured on Bedard somewhat, trading him probably won’t happen unless a couple of excellent young pitchers are coming back in the deal.  I don’t even know if such a deal would make sense for any team.

Philadelphia was close to acquiring Derek Lowe during the winter meetings, but of course that fell through.  No word on what the club offered.

The last name on the radar is Matt Clement.  The Phils really aren’t thrilled with Clement whatsoever, but they would at least consider acquiring him in the right deal.

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