Hunter Greene Likely Out Into August
The Reds’ surge toward to the top of the NL Central has been one of the top storylines in Major League Baseball this month, and the fact that they’ve done so with negligible contribution from their starting rotation is a remarkable testament to the core group of position players in Cincinnati. Reds fans hoping for a swift return from right-hander Hunter Greene, placed on the injured list last week due to discomfort in his right hip, will have to hope others can pick up the slack on the starting staff for quite some time, however. General manager Nick Krall told the team’s beat last night that Greene is headed to Arizona for a strengthening program and will need to follow that with a throwing program of four to six weeks in length (link via Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer). That makes a return sometime in August a best-case scenario.
Greene, 23, leads the Reds with 73 1/3 innings pitched and has been their most consistent starter throughout the 2023 season. He’s made strides over his 2022 rookie season, largely by scaling back the number of home runs he’s allowed (1.72 HR/9 in 2022, 1.10 in 2023). Greene’s 31.4% strikeout rate is right in line with last year’s excellent 30.9% mark, and while his 9.7% walk rate remains north of the league average, his punchouts have helped him to offset that below-average command. Of the 82 pitchers in MLB this year with at least 70 innings, only three — Spencer Strider, Shohei Ohtani, Kevin Gausman — have a higher strikeout rate than Greene. Only five — Strider, Shane McClanahan, Luis Castillo, Pablo Lopez and Blake Snell — have posted higher swinging-strike rate’s than Greene’s 14.3%.
Suffice it to say, a prolonged absence from Greene isn’t what an already dismal Reds’ rotation needed. Even with Greene’s solid production leading the group, Cincinnati starters rank 28th in the Majors with a 5.88 ERA, leading only the Rockies and A’s in that regard. The Reds’ rotation has MLB’s eighth-highest walk rate (8.8%) and has allowed home runs at the third-highest clip of any starting staff in the game (1.68 HR/9).
Greene and fellow sophomore starter and former top prospect Nick Lodolo, who’s dealing with a stress reaction in his tibia, will now be sidelined beyond the Aug. 1 trade deadline. That leaves Cincinnati with a patchwork rotation currently led by top prospect Andrew Abbott, who’s posted a pristine 1.21 ERA through his first five turns on a big league mound.
The rest of the group has struggled immensely this year. Righty Graham Ashcraft impressed early with a new cutter and improved movement on his slider, but he’s been torched for 47 runs in his past 33 innings. Veteran Luke Weaver has made 12 starts, allowing at least four runs in eight of them and at least three runs in ten of them; he’s averaging five innings per appearance and sitting on a 6.86 ERA. Prospects Brandon Williamson (5.82 ERA in 38 2/3 innings) and Levi Stoudt (nine runs in seven innings) have both debuted this year despite shaky numbers in the upper minors. Neither has found much success yet, though Stoudt’s sample is obviously quite limited.
Depth options like journeyman Ben Lively and righty Connor Overton are both on the injured list as well, the latter after undergoing Tommy John surgery. The Reds signed former Cubs righty Alec Mills to a minor league deal last month, and he’s already been selected to the big league roster despite pitching just 11 minor league innings on the season. The 31-year-old Mills pitched to a 5.66 ERA in 136 2/3 innings for Chicago in 2021-22.
Given the context of their current rotation, it’s hardly a surprise that Krall has already publicly acknowledged a desire to add pitching via the summer trade market. It’s similarly unsurprising, however, that Krall indicated within last night’s comments that the asking prices on the nascent trade market are beyond the team’s comfort zone. “Right now the conversations are in places that we are not – where we don’t want to go,” said Krall.
Trades of major significance this time of year are rare, though certainly not unprecedented. But, with the expansion of the playoff field to a dozen teams, there are very few clubs that are decidedly out of the playoff picture. Several of the teams who fit that bill — A’s, Rockies, Royals — are in their current predicament in large part due to a lack of starting pitching. Today’s brand of MLB front office tends to wait until closer to any and all deadlines — trade deadline, non-tender deadline, Rule 5 protection deadline — before making decisions, preferring to gather as much information as possible. Jumping the market this early would likely come at a steep cost — one that Krall and his group have thus far deemed prohibitive.
Reds Place Hunter Greene On Injured List, Designate Kevin Herget
The Reds have officially reinstated Joey Votto from the 60-day injured list, as was reported earlier this afternoon. Starter Hunter Greene was placed on the 15-day IL, retroactive to June 18, due to right hip pain. To clear a 40-man roster spot for Votto, Cincinnati designated righty Kevin Herget for assignment.
Greene has been battling hip discomfort for a few weeks. Cincinnati skipped one of his starts earlier in the month to give him extra rest. This’ll be his first IL stint of the season, as the pain returned during Saturday’s start against the Astros.
There’s no indication the Reds are overly concerned. As C. Trent Rosecrans of the Athletic notes (on Twitter), the Reds’ scheduled off day on Thursday means they won’t need a fifth starter until next Tuesday. By that point, right-hander Graham Ashcraft would be eligible to return from his own IL stint. Cincinnati skipper David Bell recently said the club anticipates Ashcraft being ready to come off the IL when first eligible (via MLB.com injury tracker).
Still, the Reds will have to navigate a couple weeks without arguably their best starter. Cincinnati has already been without Nick Lodolo for a while, and he’s not likely to return until August. The Reds’ young position player core has carried them to an eight-game win streak and within half a game of the lead in the NL Central. A temporary rotation of Ashcraft, Andrew Abbott, Ben Lively, Brandon Williamson and Luke Weaver is well below-average for a club battling for a playoff spot, though.
Herget has been working in long relief this season. He’s tallied 22 innings across 13 appearances, pitching to a 5.73 ERA while striking out only 11.5% of batters faced. Herget has thrown plenty of strikes but hasn’t missed many bats and has given up a lot of hard contact.
After a three-outing debut season with the Rays last year, Herget has gotten a career-high MLB workload in Cincinnati. He’ll likely land on waivers within the next week. The 32-year-old has cleared outright waivers before in his career, so he’d have the ability to test minor league free agency if he goes unclaimed.
Reds Sign Hunter Greene To Six-Year Extension
The Reds have committed to a key member of their rotation. Cincinnati announced Tuesday evening they’ve signed Hunter Greene to a six-year deal covering the 2023-28 seasons and containing a club option for 2029. It’s reportedly a $53MM guarantee, including a $2MM buyout on a $21MM option for the ’29 season. The deal also contains various escalators and awards bonuses that could push the total earnings to $96.2MM. Greene is a CAA client.
The salary structure breaks down as follows:
- $2MM signing bonus
- $1MM salary in 2023
- $3MM in 2024
- $6MM in 2025
- $8MM in 2026
- $15MM in 2027
- $16MM in 2028
- $21MM club option with $2MM buyout in 2029
Greene entered this season with exactly one year of major league service after breaking camp with the team last season. The deal buys out his final two pre-arbitration seasons, all three arbitration years and at least one free agent year with an option for a second.
The 23-year-old righty was selected by the Reds with the second overall pick in the 2017 draft. Though he was drafted as a two-way player, he dropped the offensive portion of his game while in the minors and has been entirely focused on pitching. He required Tommy John surgery as a prospect in 2019 but that did little to diminish his tremendous prospect stock. He still had his trademark triple-digit heater and wipeout slider when he returned. The minor leagues were canceled by the pandemic in 2020 but Greene fared well in his return to competitive ball the year after. He posted a 3.30 ERA in 106 1/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A, striking out 31.7% of batters faced while walking 8.9%.
He was selected to the club’s 40-man roster after that season to protect him from the Rule 5 draft, but it wasn’t clear if the club would carry him on their Opening Day roster. In the end, Greene did indeed make the club out of camp, sticking with them all year long apart from an August injured list stint and subsequent rehab assignment. He made 24 starts in the big leagues, logging 125 2/3 innings with a 4.44 ERA. He struck out 30.9% of batters faced, walked 9% of opponents, and got grounders at a 29.3% clip. It wasn’t a completely dominant showing, but it was a solid debut for a 22-year-old getting his first taste of the big leagues.
Greene is off to a similar beginning to the season in 2023. Through four starts and 17 innings, he owns a 4.24 ERA. He’s punched out just under 31% of opponents while generating swinging strikes on a strong 13.5% of his offerings. It’s little surprise Greene has missed plenty of bats with a fastball that averages north of 99 MPH. Home runs were his main concern last year, as his modest ground ball numbers translated into a lofty 1.72 homers allowed per nine innings. To his credit, Greene has allowed just one longball thus far in 2023.
If he can consistently keep the ball in the yard, it’s not hard to envision him sticking at the top of a rotation. Few young pitchers can match Greene’s raw arm strength and he’s long shown solid control for a young flamethrower. Greene has handled left and right-handed batters in his brief big league time as well. Between him and fellow top ten pick Nick Lodolo (plus mid-rotation grounder specialist Graham Ashcraft), the Reds have the nucleus of an excellent rotation they hope to lead them out of their ongoing rebuild.
Greene had been on a trajectory to reach arbitration for the first time after 2024 and reach free agency after 2027. The Reds tack on two years of club control while leaving him an opportunity to hit the open market at a relatively young age. Greene would be on track to hit free agency headed into his age-30 season if the Reds exercise their option. He locks in strong earnings to safeguard against injury or performance risk while retaining the possibility of a significant free agent deal down the line.
The $53MM guarantee is the second-largest for a pitcher with between one and two years of big league service. Spencer Strider set the record last October with a six-year, $75MM deal. Greene falls short of that mark but didn’t have the kind of rookie season the Atlanta hurler put together in 2022, when he worked to a 2.67 ERA with an eye-popping 38.3% strikeout percentage in 131 2/3 innings. Greene’s deal easily checks in second in the service group, with Madison Bumgarner’s decade-old $35MM extension representing the record mark until Strider put pen to paper.
Cincinnati didn’t have a single player under guaranteed contract beyond this season. Option buyouts for the likes of Joey Votto, Mike Moustakas, Wil Myers and Curt Casali represented the Reds’ only commitments. There’s plenty of breathing room and obvious motivation for the Reds to start committing to core players. Speculatively speaking, players like Lodolo, Ashcraft, Tyler Stephenson and Jonathan India could be next on the front office’s list of extension targets.
Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the Reds and Greene had agreed to a six-year, $53MM extension and reported the option value. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported the contract could max out at $96.2MM. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported the salary and escalator specifics.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Injury Notes: Olivares, Greene, Wheeler
The Royals announced today that outfielder Edward Olivares was reinstated from the 60-day injured list, with first baseman Nick Pratto getting optioned in a corresponding move. Olivares went on the IL in mid-July due to a left quad strain. The club already had a vacancy on its 40-man roster, meaning no corresponding move was required in that department.
The injury was ill-timed for Olivares, 26, as he seemed on the verge of a breakout prior to that. In 36 games this year, he’s hit .303/.358/.434 for a 125 wRC+. With just over two weeks remaining until the offseason, he will try to get back into a groove and go into the winter with a strong finish. He’ll jump into the outfield mix with Michael A. Taylor, Drew Waters, Kyle Isbel, Hunter Dozier and Nate Eaton, with catcher MJ Melendez occasionally heading onto the grass as well.
Other injury updates from around the league…
- The Reds announced that right-hander Hunter Greene was reinstated from the 15-day injured list. He is slated to start the second game of today’s doubleheader. Fellow righty Raynel Espinal was optioned in a corresponding move, while righty Kyle Dowdy is serving as the “29th man” for the twin bill. One of the top prospects in the game coming into this year, Greene hasn’t exactly been dominant in his MLB debut. He has a 5.26 ERA through his first 102 2/3 innings in the big leagues, though with a very strong 28.8% strikeout rate. Since the Reds have traded away established pitchers like Sonny Gray, Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle this year, they will need the prospects to step up and form the core of the next rotation. It’s possible there’s already a decent nucleus in place, with Greene, Nick Lodolo and Graham Ashcraft all showing some signs of promise this year.
- The Phillies have been without Zack Wheeler for almost a month but he could return this week without a rehab assignment, reports Matt Gelb of The Athletic. The tentative plan is for the righty to start Wednesday’s game against the Blue Jays, though probably not for very long. His most recent work was throwing two innings in a simulated game, which he will be gradually building on over the final two weeks of the regular season. As Gelb notes, Wheeler could potentially be lined up to start the first game of the Wild Card playoff round, but the Phils will have to make it there first. The club is in decent position to make the postseason since they are currently in possession of the second of three NL Wild Card spots, 1.5 games ahead of the Padres and 3 ahead of the Brewers. Getting Wheeler back will be tremendously helpful, assuming he doesn’t have any rust from his absence. Through 138 innings on the season, he has a 3.07 ERA, 26.7% strikeout rate, 5.9% walk rate and 44.1% ground ball rate.
NL Notes: Gilbreath, Eflin, Greene, Flaherty, Miley
The Rockies announced that left-hander Lucas Gilbreath has been placed on the 15-day injured list due to a left elbow flexor strain. In a corresponding move, right-hander Alex Colome went the other direction, getting reinstated from the IL. Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post tweets that Gilbreath will undergo an MRI.
While the severity of the issue still isn’t known, it’s at least enough for Gilbreath to miss the next couple of weeks. An issue to a pitcher’s throwing elbow is always somewhat worrisome, though the club will surely get more information before deciding how to proceed. The Rox are in the basement of the National League West and won’t be in contention down the stretch, meaning there will be little incentive to rush him back to the mound.
Gilbreath has been an effective southpaw for Colorado over the past couple of seasons, registering a 3.78 ERA, not too shabby for someone who plays their home games at Coors Field. In 85 2/3 career innings, he has a 25% strikeout rate and 45.7% groundball rate, though an elevated 13.2% walk rate.
Some other injury notes from the Senior Circuit…
- Phillies right-hander Zach Eflin is still trying to get back on the mound this season, having been on the injured list since late June due to a right knee bruise. Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer tweets that Eflin might be able to throw a bullpen this week, with the aim of eventually returning as a reliever. Given that there’s just over a month remaining in the regular season, it would be difficult for him to build back up to a starter’s workload in time to make a significant contribution. The righty has quietly been an effective member of the rotation, having registered a 4.21 ERA over 98 games, 93 of them starts, going back to the beginning of the 2018 season. He is highly likely to reach free agency this year, as he and the Phils have a mutual option for 2023, with those provisions almost never being triggered by both parties. The club currently holds the second of three Wild Card spots in the National League and a postseason run could give Eflin more time to showcase his health before reaching the open market.
- Reds righty Hunter Greene is set to head out on a rehab assignment, reports Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer. He’s been out of action for over three weeks now due to a strain in his throwing shoulder, though appears to be slated to return after a couple of rehab outings. The highly-touted rookie is known for his tremendous velocity, though he’s yet to put it to great use at the big league level. He currently owns a 5.26 ERA after 102 2/3 innings in the majors, despite a strong 28.8% strikeout rate. When batters don’t strike out, they appear to be making good contact, as Greene’s barrel percentage is only in the league’s 10th percentile while his hard hit rate is in the 30th percentile. He’ll look to finish the season on a positive note before the winter begins. Greene, Nick Lodolo and Graham Ashcraft are all under 25 years old and showed intriguing skills in their debuts this year. The Reds will surely be hoping to maximize the talents of that trio in order to have a strong foundation of starting pitching to build around in the future.
- Righty Jack Flaherty is going to throw another rehab start on Wednesday before rejoining the Cardinals on Labor Day, tweets Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat. After an elite season in 2019 wherein he threw 196 1/3 innings with a 2.75 ERA, Flaherty is now in his third straight injury-limited campaign. He’s made just three starts this year in between IL stints due to shoulder injuries. If he’s able to return and flash his 2019 form, he’d be a tremendous difference maker for the Cards down the stretch and into the postseason. The club is currently 5 1/2 games ahead of the Brewers in the race for the division crown. Flaherty hasn’t allowed more than one earned run in each of his last three rehab outings.
- Cubs lefty Wade Miley is still looking to make his way back to a mound before the season is out, speaking to Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times about his year. “I can’t shut it down,” Miley said. “If I want to keep playing baseball beyond this year, I have to prove to people that I’m not broke. And I don’t feel like I’m broke by any means.” After throwing 163 innings with a 3.37 ERA with the Reds last year, he was claimed on waivers by the Cubs but has been limited to just four starts and 19 innings here in 2022, due to various ailments, primarily in his throwing shoulder. He will be hoping to return to action and show some effectiveness before the end of the season, when he will become a free agent and turn 36 years old in November.
Reds Place Hunter Greene On 15-Day Injured List
TODAY: It doesn’t appear as though Greene will need surgery, according to multiple reporters (including Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer). The exact results of Greene’s MRI aren’t known, nor his timetable for a possible return.
AUGUST 5: The Reds announced they’ve placed righty Hunter Greene on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to August 2, with a strain in his throwing shoulder. Reliever Ryan Hendrix has been recalled to take his place on the active roster.
Greene, who turns 23 tomorrow, has spent the year in the rotation after breaking camp with the big league club. The former second overall pick has made his first 20 starts at the major league level, working to a 5.26 ERA across 102 2/3 innings. Only Josiah Gray has allowed more home runs than Greene’s 23, but he’s also flashed the promise that made him one of the sport’s top pitching prospects. He’s averaging an absurd 98.7 MPH on his four-seam fastball and eclipsing triple-digits with regularity. Unsurprisingly, Greene has missed bats on an above-average 13.5% of his offerings and is striking out an excellent 28.8% of opponents.
It’s not clear how long the Reds anticipate Greene being out, but the mention of a shoulder injury certainly isn’t ideal. Cincinnati is looking ahead to 2023 as they sit near the bottom of the National League, so there’s no reason not to proceed with caution for a player so vital to the franchise’s long-term future.
Manager David Bell will have to patch things together on the mound. Along with Greene’s absence, Cincinnati shipped off Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle within the past week. Nick Lodolo, Mike Minor and Graham Ashcraft have established rotation roles, while the club brought up Robert Dugger as at least a spot starter for tonight. They’ll need to do the same on Sunday against the Brewers, when Greene had been slated to take the ball.
NL Central Notes: Greene, Reds, Stephenson, Pirates, Newman, Frazier, Cubs
The Pirates‘ 1-0 win over the Reds today will go down perhaps the most unusual game of the 2022 season, as Pittsburgh won without a single hit. Reds starter Hunter Greene tossed 7 1/3 innings of hitless ball, but was pulled after 118 pitches and after issuing consecutive walks during the eighth inning. Reliever Art Warren entered the game and issued another walk, then Ke’Bryan Hayes drove in the game’s only run via a fielder’s choice. The Reds lineup, meanwhile, was held to only four hits, with Bucs starter Jose Quintana doing much of the work in shutting Cincinnati out over seven innings.
Since the Bucs didn’t need to bat in the bottom of the ninth, the official threshold of nine hitless innings wasn’t met, so Greene and Warren won’t be credited with a no-hitter. This oddity marks just the sixth time since 1901 that a team has won despite going hitless, and ironically, the Reds were on the other side of the equation in the first such instance. Back on April 23, 1964, the Reds collected a 1-0 win over the Houston Colt .45s even though Houston’s Ken Johnson held Cincinnati hitless over nine full innings of work — a pair of ninth-inning errors led to the Reds’ only run.
More from around the NL Central…
- Reds catcher Tyler Stephenson cleared concussion protocol after being hit in the mask with a foul ball during Saturday’s game. Stephenson didn’t play today but isn’t expected to miss much time, even though the team will be cautious given that Stephenson already missed two weeks with a concussion earlier this season. Manager David Bell told reporters (including The Cincinnati Enquirer’s Charlie Goldsmith) that the Reds are working with Stephenson on finding new types of masks and padded helmets, and the club is committed to keeping Stephenson behind the plate. Joey Votto already has first base spoken for anyway, plus Stephenson’s bat is more valuable from the catcher position than at first base. However, with three concussions already in his career, Stephenson and the Reds can only hope that a position switch doesn’t eventually become a necessity for health reasons.
- The Pirates hope Kevin Newman can start a minor league rehab assignment this week, Pirates GM Ben Cherington said during his weekly radio show (hat tip to Mike Persak of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette). Newman hit the 10-day injured list with a left groin strain on April 27, so the timing of a rehab assignment coincides with the rough 3-5 week timeline initially given for Newman’s recovery. The veteran shortstop was off to a decent start before hitting the IL, batting .250/.308/.375 (96 wRC+, 98 OPS+) over his first 52 plate appearances. Rookie Diego Castillo has seen most of the shortstop duties while Newman has been sidelined, but Pittsburgh fans continue to wait for star shortstop prospect Oneil Cruz to get an extended call-up to the majors.
- In some Cubs-related injury news, Alec Mills will toss a live batting practice session on Tuesday. (Meghan Montemurro of The Chicago Tribune was among those to report the news.) Mills has yet to pitch this season due to a lower back strain, and he made one minor league rehab outing before being set back by quad tightness. David Bote (shoulder surgery) and Clint Frazier (appendectomy) are both expected to start their own rehab assignments within a few days. Frazier told Montemurro that he believes he’ll need five games to ramp up, which would put him on target to rejoin the Cubs when they begin a series with the Reds on May 23.
Hunter Greene Makes Reds’ Rotation
Top pitching prospect Hunter Greene has made the Reds’ Opening Day roster and will pitch out of the rotation to begin the season, manager David Bell announced to reporters Wednesday (Twitter link via Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer).
Tyler Mahle will start on Opening Day and be followed by lefty Reiver Sanmartin, righty Vladimir Gutierrez and Greene. Cincinnati has an early off-day that’ll allow them to skip the fifth spot in the rotation the first time through, and Mahle has already been announced as the starter for their fifth game (which is also their home opener). The Enquirer’s Bobby Nightengale adds that whoever is settled upon as the fifth member of the rotation will likely start the sixth game of the season.
Greene, 22, was the No. 2 overall pick in the 2017 draft. Initially selected as a two-way player, he’s since been shifted solely to the mound and has done little to drop his stock in the years since being drafted. Tommy John surgery wiped out Greene’s 2019 season, but he’s returned with the same triple-digit heater and wicked slider that made him such a coveted player as an amateur. He currently ranks among MLB’s 35 best prospects according to each of Baseball America, MLB.com, FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus, ESPN and The Athletic (where Keith Law is most bullish on him, placing him No. 12 overall).
Greene split the 2021 season between the Reds’ Double-A and Triple-A affiliates, pitching to a combined 3.30 ERA with a 31.7% strikeout rate, an 8.9% walk rate and a 43.8% ground-ball rate over the life of 106 1/3 innings. That marked a new career-high in innings pitched for Greene, which comes as little surprise given 2019’s surgery and the lack of a minor league season in 2020. The Reds may yet be cautious with Greene’s workload — both on a per-start basis and with regard to the season as a whole — but he’ll be given the opportunity to grow that innings total at the big league level.
The news on Greene comes just one day after the Pirates drew flak for optioning top infield prospect Oneil Cruz to the minors to begin the season. Situations like this were a focal point for the MLBPA during this offseason’s wave of collective bargaining, as players pushed the league to incentivize front offices to carry their best prospects to begin the season rather than hold them in the minors for a few weeks to secure an additional year of club control. Under the 2021-26 CBA, teams can be awarded draft picks if they carry top prospects to begin the season and those players go on to finish well in awards voting.
It’s eminently possible that Cincinnati might’ve included Greene in the Opening Day rotation even in the absence of those new stipulations, as the offseason trade of Sonny Gray and injuries to Luis Castillo and Mike Minor have thinned out the Reds’ options. Regardless, Greene’s forthcoming debut gives Reds fans plenty to be optimistic for after a frustrating offseason that was more focused on trimming payroll than improving the 2022 roster.
If Greene is in the big leagues for good, he’ll accrue a full year of service time in 2022 and be on track to reach free agency following the 2027 season, when he’d be just 28 years of age. As things stand, he’d be on track to reach arbitration following the 2024 season.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Luis Castillo, Mike Minor To Begin Season On Injured List
4:55pm: Bell told reporters (including Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer) that Castillo and Minor will indeed both start the year on the IL.
9:44am: Reds right-hander Luis Castillo is “expected” to begin the season on the injured list after being slowed by some shoulder soreness early in camp, writes MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon. Meanwhile, manager David Bell told reporters yesterday that Castillo is “quite a bit ahead” of newly acquired left-hander Mike Minor, who is battling shoulder troubles of his own. Bell said the team is set to meet with some of its ailing players today to establish a more concrete rehab plan for each.
News of Castillo’s barking shoulder first surfaced earlier in camp, and it’s worth emphasizing that the team believes he’s healthy now. However, Castillo has been behind schedule in an already truncated Spring Training and has yet to pitch in a Cactus League game. Opening Day is less than two weeks away at this point, and it seems the 29-year-old righty simply won’t have time to sufficiently build up to readiness for the early portion of the season. Placing Castillo on the injured list would set him up to miss multiple turns through the rotation, but he could still be back in the fold for the Reds by mid-to-late April.
The likelihood of a Castillo trade had already plummeted in recent weeks, with general manager Nick Krall publicly stating he didn’t expect to trade Castillo or right-hander Tyler Mahle (who has since been named the team’s Opening Day starter). Now, with some shoulder issues on top of the Reds’ public disinclination toward trading him, it seems all but certain that Castillo remain a Red for at least the early portion of the season. Should the team struggle, of course, his name will be featured prominently in summer trade rumblings once again.
As for Minor, it’s not yet clear just how much time he’ll be expected to miss. Bell suggested that Minor is dealing with soreness that the team does not believe to be overly concerning, but added that the veteran lefty’s shoulder is going to “take some more time.”
Acquired in a surprising swap that sent reliever Amir Garrett to the Royals and saw the Reds take on about $7MM in salary — the first time this winter that Cincinnati had added, rather than subtracted, from the payroll — Minor joined his new club in hopes of rebounding from a rough 2020-21 showing.
The 34-year-old Minor has posted an ERA north of 5.00 in each of the past two seasons, working to a combined 5.18 ERA in 215 1/3 innings between the Rangers, A’s and Royals in that time. Minor still notched solid strikeout and walk rates during that time, but home runs have become increasingly problematic for him. Considering he’ll move from the spacious Kauffman Stadium to the homer-happy Great American Ball Park, that’s not an encouraging trend, but the Reds clearly have some confidence they’ll be able to help curtail the issue.
With Castillo and Minor both sidelined for some time to begin the year, the Reds’ Opening Day rotation is going to feature quite a few untested arms. Mahle will take the ball on Opening Day and likely be followed by 26-year-old Vladimir Gutierrez, who held his own with a 4.74 ERA in 114 innings/22 starts as a rookie last season. Options already on the 40-man would include Tony Santillan, Reiver Sanmartin and Riley O’Brien. The Reds have several non-roster veterans and journeymen in camp, including Zack Godley, Ben Lively, Brandon Bailey and Connor Overton. Prospects like Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Brandon Williamson and Graham Ashcraft could all get a look, too. Right-hander Justin Dunn, acquired in the Jesse Winker trade, is expected to miss “months” with a shoulder injury that Reds knew about at the time of the trade.
Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer wrote over the weekend that Greene, in particular, appears to have a shot at breaking camp in the Reds’ rotation, though no final decisions have been made just yet. Greene showed well in his first start of the spring though and has already drawn praise from Bell, who noted that the former No. 2 pick has “settled in” and impressed the club while “pitching with confidence” thus far.
Reds Select Hunter Greene, Four Others
The Reds selected the contract of top pitching prospect Hunter Greene, adding him to the 40-man roster, per a club announcement. Also selected to the 40-man roster were outfielder Allan Cerda and righties Alexis Diaz, Daniel Duarte and James Marinan. All five prospects are now protected from the Rule 5 Draft, and Cincinnati’s 40-man roster is now full.
Greene, 22, was the No. 2 overall pick in the 2017 draft as a shortstop/right-hander with a fastball that could run up to 102-103 mph. He’s undergone Tommy John surgery since that lofty selection but enjoyed a nice return campaign in 2021, tallying 106 1/3 innings of 3.30 ERA ball between Double-A and Triple-A. The 6’5″, 230-pound Greene fanned 31.7% of his opponents against an 8.9% walk rate and a 43.8% walk rate. Regarded as one of the 50 best prospects in the game, Greene should be in line to make his big league debut at some point in 2022 — particularly if the Reds part ways with a starter via trade this winter (e.g. Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle).
The 21-year-old Cerda is the only other one of today’s additions who ranks as a consensus top-30 farmhand in the Reds organization. Cerda hit .250/.361/.523 with 17 homers, 22 doubles, five triples and a pair of steals (albeit in a concerning 10 tries) through 363 plate appearances between two Class-A levels. A right-handed hitter with big raw power and above-average speed, Cerda can handle center field but also has questions about his hit tool.
Marinan, 23, was the Reds’ fourth-round pick in 2017 and logged a 4.31 ERA with a 22.3% strikeout rate but an alarming 14.4% walk rate in 64 2/3 innings this season — mostly spent as a starter. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen gives him credit for three potentially average (or better) offerings, but questions about the 6’5″ right-hander’s command drag his stock down.
Both Diaz and Duarte are relievers heading into their age-25 seasons. Diaz posted a 3.83 ERA with a huge 38.9% strikeout rate through 42 1/3 Double-A frames, but he also walked 11.1% of his opponents. Duarte began the 2021 season pitching in the Mexican League but impressed upon joining the Reds, posting a 31.4% strikeout rate in 23 2/3 frames across multiple levels. Like Diaz and Marinan, walks have been an issue.