Draft Notes: Puk, Phillies, Top 500, Groome
We’re five days from the start of the 2016 MLB Draft, and ESPN’s Keith Law’s latest mock draft (Insider only) has the Phillies taking Florida lefty A.J. Puk with the first overall pick. He notes, however, that the Phillies still haven’t settled on anyone. The selection of another player (like Mercer outfielder Kyle Lewis, Louisville outfielder Corey Ray, or California high school outfielder Mickey Moniak, all of whom Law mentions as possibilities) could cause uncertainty elsewhere in the draft. Here’s more on what to expect this week.
- Phillies GM Matt Klentak himself says the Phillies are debating who to select but have whittled their list of possibilities down to “a small handful,” writes Philly.com’s Matt Breen. In addition to Puk, Lewis and Moniak, Breen also names Tennessee third baseman Nick Senzel and California high school outfielder Blake Rutherford as possibilities.
- Baseball America’s list of the top 500 draft prospects currently features Puk at the top, with Lewis, Moniak, Senzel and Ray at Nos. 4 through 7, respectively. Between them are Kansas high school righty Riley Pint and New Jersey high school lefty Jason Groome. In the subscriber-only scouting reports, BA praises Groome’s mid-90s fastball and biting curveball, noting that he’s at least as physically gifted as any other player available this year.
- Many of this week’s high school draftees will face tough decisions about whether to go to college or turn pro, Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer writes. Reds starter Anthony DeSclafani explains that he turned down a bonus of about $600K from the Red Sox out of high school so that he could head to the University of Florida. He got a smaller bonus after the Blue Jays selected him three years later. “You go from not making decisions that matter through high school – you decide to do your homework or something, or what you’re going to eat – and then you decide whether to go play professional baseball or go to college,” says DeSclafani. “That can be a life-changing thing.”
Prospect Notes: July 2, Astros, Bell, Draft
Over at Baseball America, Ben Badler provides an outstanding preview of the coming July 2 international signing period. Of particular note, Badler reports that the Astros are expected to exceed their spending limits and incur the maximum penalty (a 100% overage tax and two-year ban on $300K+ bonuses). Houston has been making huge outlays through the draft in recent years, but saw its domestic amateur spending capacity plummet after the club’s excellent performance at the major league level one year ago. With that pipeline now constrained, Badler says the ‘Stros will blow past their available $2.2MM or so in pool allocation on just one player — Cuban shortstop Anibal Sierra — while likely adding several other pricey youngsters.
More from Badler’s column and from some other outlets as both the Draft and the 2016-17 international signing period draw near…
- Badler goes on to detail the latest elsewhere in the market, listing some of the high-dollar prospects attached to the Braves, Padres, Nationals, and Cardinals, which are the other clubs he expects to top their cap this year. He also explains the interesting case of Dominican infielder Freudis Nova, who lost an apparent ~$2.5MM agreement with the Marlins after testing positive for steroid use. He now appears to be up for grabs, with his landing spot and ultimate bonus uncertain. Badler writes that the Padres and Astros make sense as logical possibilities, as each is already expected to shatter their bonus pool, while clubs that are planning to stick within their set limitations have largely allocated most of their funds via verbal agreements already.
- The Reds, meanwhile, may yet be able to stay within their second-in-the-majors allotment, per Badler. Cincinnati is still expected to give shortstop Alfredo Rodriguez a $7MM bonus, but could still pick up enough slots via trade to keep the total spend within the limits.
- Sticking with the international free agent scene, MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez reports that Cuban outfielder Alexei Bell, who has been playing in the Mexican League, has asked for his release from los Tigres de Quintana Roo (Twitter link). Per Sanchez, Bell has been hit on both the hand and the arm and doesn’t want to risk a serious injury. It should be noted, too, that Bell was scuffling at the plate in his limited sample, batting just .171/.310/.314 through 42 plate appearances.
- The Brewers‘ top baseball decision-maker, GM David Stearns, has paid visits to watch high-school pitchers Jason Groome and Riley Pint as well as University of Miami catcher Zack Collins, Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs reports on Twitter. Longenhagen also adds (Twitter link) that Rockies GM Jeff Bridich recently took a long look at Groome, who was previously favored to go first overall but has slipped in recent mock drafts.
- Speaking of mock drafts, there are several new ones worth taking a look at for those interested in prognostication. Frankie Piliere of D1Baseball.com still likes the Phillies to grab University of Florida lefty A.J. Puk at 1-1, which is also the prediction of ESPN.com’s Keith Law (Insider link). Law has Kyle Lewis going second to the Reds and Groome heading to the Braves with the third choice. Baseball America’s John Manuel, meanwhile, now thinks the Phils will go for high school outfielder Mickey Moniak, leaving Cincinnati to grab Puk and setting up Atlanta to take Louisville’s Corey Ray.
Quick Hits: Leyland, Rule 5, Groome, Analytics
Veteran manager Jim Leyland will serve as the skipper for Team USA in the 2017 World Baseball Classi, reports MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi. The 71-year-old Leyland most recently managed the Tigers from 2006-13, leading the Tigers to three division championships and two American League pennants. Though he didn’t capture a World Series in Detroit, Leyland did manage the 1997 Marlins club that won the Fall Classic in just the franchise’s fifth year of existence. As Leyland explains to Morosi, he never thought he would manage again once his Tigers stint concluded, but he couldn’t pass on this opportunity. “I’m never going to manage again after this,” said Leyland. “…I could not turn this down. Not from an ego standpoint, but it’s the honor of being asked to manage for your country.” Leyland is taking the honor seriously, already plotting out which players he’ll seek permission to invite to the club and envisioning possible lineups. He’s also having fun with it though, telling his former prized slugger Miguel Cabrera: “I already told Miggy I’m going to walk him.”
Some more notes from around the game…
- Following the PED suspension of Phillies Rule 5 pick Daniel Stumpf, J.J. Cooper of Baseball America examines if such discipline can, in a bizarre way, give Rule 5 players added incentive to use banned substances. Stumpf is the third Rule 5 lefty in the past year to be suspended, and Cooper points out that because the suspensions make it easier for a club to carry a Rule 5 player through the early portion of the season while still fulfilling his roster requirements, the suspensions can actually be beneficial. By the time Stumpf is activated, the Phillies will only need to carry him for about two months before rosters expand in September. And while Stumpf won’t be paid for his time on the restricted list, even the roughly $250K he stands to make (half the MLB minimum) dwarfs what he would have been paid in the minors this year. Cooper notes that many Rule 5 picks — especially relievers — are older and could be the types of players who will struggle to find work by the time they’re six-year minor league free agents. Cooper looks at the case of Andrew McKirahan, who sat half of the 2015 season with a suspension and then underwent Tommy John surgery this spring, thus landing him on the Major League 60-day DL. While McKirahan’s injury is of course unfortunate, McKirahan will make about $750K between 2014-15 — staggering sum compared to the ~$25K he might’ve otherwise made. Cooper’s column is excellent, and I’d highly encourage MLBTR readers to take the time to read it start to finish.
- The New Jersey State Interscholastic Athletic Association has deemed potential No. 1 overall draft pick Jason Groome, a left-hander out of Barnegat High School, ineligible to play due to a violation of the state’s transfer rule, as Joe Zedalis and Matthew Stanmyre of NJ.com report. Groome spent last season pitching at IMG Academy in Bradenton, Fla. and transferred to Barnegat in 2016. The NJSIAA, however, ruled that his transfer didn’t come with a “bona fide change of residence,” thus making Groome temporarily ineligible to pitch. Head coach Dan McCoy tells the NJ.com duo that Groome will be eligible to return around April 24, but Groome still could miss a pair of starts as a result, thus striking a couple of opportunities for MLB scouts and executives to see him.
- Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith explores the rapid expansion of analytics and sabermetrics throughout the game in his latest column for Sportsnet The Magazine. As recently as five to 10 years ago, many clubs only had a lone analyst to keep up with sabermetric trends, but the amount of data-driven research has exploded, with one person indicating to Nicholson-Smith that there may be three to four times as many analytics jobs in the game as there were even two years ago. While there was a point in time where fans who kept up with sabermetric trends were ahead of many teams, those days are in the past. Teams are now building more and more proprietary metrics for player evaluation. Braves GM John Coppolella estimates to Nicholson-Smith that “maybe about 50 or 60 percent of what teams are doing privately gets reported.” Many within the game expect the gap between proprietary metrics and those that are publicly available at sites like Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus to grow considerably in the coming years as clubs continue to make aggressive hires in statistical analysis.
NL East Notes: Freeman, Peterson, Swanson, Groome, Storen
The Braves concluded their final FanFest at Turner Field earlier today, writes Jon Cooper for MLB.com. The club is set to open SunTrust Park next season. In the meantime, they’ll try to rapidly rebuild in time for the new park. Here’s more about the Braves and other NL East clubs:
- Freddie Freeman is finally pain free, he told reporters including Cooper. The lefty first baseman has dealt with a slow to heal right wrist injury. He managed a career worst 481 plate appearances last season, although he still hit reasonably well – .276/.370/.471 with 18 home runs. While many thought the Braves would trade Freeman, he’s still just 26. If the club turns around as quickly as they aim to, he’ll still be in his prime.
- Another injured Brave, Jace Peterson, is also once again pain free, reports David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Peterson injured his thumb in late May and played through the injury for the remainder of the season. His .265/.340/.318 line wasn’t exactly setting the world on fire when he sustained the injury. However, it was slightly better than the .230/.305/.341 slash he put up over the rest of the season. Peterson has an interesting blend of skills. He could eventually develop into a sneaky-good utility player. He’s currently atop the depth chart at second base.
- Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez hinted that we’ll see top prospect Dansby Swanson sooner rather than later, per a report in the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Braves shortstop Erick Aybar is under contract through the end of this season. In my view, the club may be hoping Swanson can advanced quickly enough to join the team in early 2017 – if not sooner. After signing with the Diamondbacks last summer, Swanson had 99 plate appearances in Low-A, hitting .289/.394/.482. The soon-to-be 22-year-old has all the makings of a fast moving prospect. He was the centerpiece of the trade that sent Shelby Miller to Arizona.
- Former Phillies ace Cole Hamels recently had the opportunity to meet with potential first draft pick Jason Groome, writes Matt Gelb of Philly.com. Of course, the Phillies hold that first overall selection and are said to be considering Groome. The 17-year-old New Jersey native already possesses mid-90s velocity with a promising curve and changeup. Hamels had simply advice for Groome: “stay healthy and you are going to be golden.” Of course, Hamels also had some more actionable advice. He offered the contact information of a motivational speaker he regularly talks to before starts.
- Earlier today on MLB Network Radio, Drew Storen‘s agent Brodie Van Wagenen said he and Nationals GM Mike Rizzo had a “unique level of transparency” following the trade for Jonathan Papelbon. The deal was not the first time the Nationals opted to replace Storen as the closer. The meaning behind Van Wagenen’s comment is somewhat vague. Presumably, both agent and GM had a candid talk about Storen’s role in the organization. Now Storen is turning the page as a member of the Blue Jays.
NL East Notes: Minaya, Marlins, Phillies, Storen
Though many felt that Omar Minaya left the Mets with a barren farm system and more than deserved his dismissal as GM in 2010, Michael Powell of the New York Times notes that many of the Mets’ key contributors in 2015 are from the Minaya regime. Minaya tells Powell that he takes pride in knowing that he helped lay the groundwork for the team’s current success, noting that he still gets excited seeing players like Jeurys Familia and Hansel Robles succeed. As Powell points out, those two pitchers, along with Lucas Duda, Daniel Murphy, Wilmer Flores, Ruben Tejada, Juan Lagares, Jacob deGrom, Steven Matz and Jon Niese were all signed or drafted during Minaya’s time as GM. Minaya defers much of the credit to scouts such as Ismael Cruz, Rudy Terrasas, Ramon Pena and Larry Izzo, but the now-former GM nonetheless deserves credit for some of the talent he left for successor Sandy Alderson. “You’re just happy to be part of something that is working today; a story is not written by one man,” said Minaya, who is now a senior adviser to MLBPA executive director Tony Clark. “If I said I always knew all these kids would be this good, I’d be lying.”
Here’s more from the NL East…
- The Marlins are playing for more than pride and third place in the NL East, writes MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro. Though the playoffs, of course, are not a possibility for Miami, the team’s performance over the final 16 games could help shape the front office and owner Jeffrey Loria’s course of action this offseason. Frisaro notes that it’s “no secret” that the club is willing to trade Marcell Ozuna, but a dismal finish to the year could potentially leave the front office convinced that further changes are required and thusly place even more players on the trade block.
- Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com spoke with Baseball America’s John Manuel about the pitchers that could be waiting for the Phillies at the top of next year’s June draft. As Salisbury notes, incoming president Andy MacPhail is known as a “pitching guy” and has in the past been quoted as saying, “Buy the bats. Grow the arms.” Manuel tells Salisbury that among single-digit picks in next year’s draft (i.e. those chosen picks 1 through 9), pitching is a strength. Florida left-hander A.J. Puk, high school lefty Jason Groome and high school right-hander Riley Pint make up the top three arms in next year’s draft class, Manuel tells Salisbury. Those interested in the Phillies and in next year’s draft will surely want to give the column a lengthier look.
- Drew Storen expressed regret to reporters, including MLB.com’s Ben Raby, over his actions that led to a fractured thumb that will end his season. The displaced Nationals closer Storen broke the finger when slamming a locker door after surrendering a two-run homer to Yoenis Cespedes. “Obviously, I was a little frustrated with my outing, but I had no intention [of causing harm],” said Storen. “I’m not the type of guy to punch a wall or do something like that. It’s not what I was aiming for.” Storen dismissed the notion that he may have played his final game for the Nats, writes Raby — he’s been mentioned as a speculative trade candidate this offseason — instead stating that his focus is on getting healthy and supporting his Nationals teammates in the season’s final few weeks. Storen will be arb-eligible for the final time this offseason and due a raise on his $5.7MM salary. He’ll be a free agent following the 2016 season.