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Javier Baez

Cubs Avoid Arbitration With Kris Bryant, Javier Baez

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3:07pm: The Cubs will pay Javier Baez an even $10MM, per Jeff Passan of ESPN.com (via Twitter). That’s $700K north of his projected earning point. The sides are said to be interested in hammering out a longer-term contract, which remains possible after working out a 2020 salary.

3:00pm: Several other key Cubs players also have deals, per ESPNChicago.com’s Jesse Rogers (Twitter links). Catcher Willson Contreras receives a $4.5MM salary, right on the MLBTR projection. Outfielder Kyle Schwarber will play for $7.01MM, south of the $8MM that the model predicted.

In other deals, the Cubs will pay southpaw Kyle Ryan $975K, according to Robert Murray (Twitter links). And outfielder Albert Almora will earn $1.575MM this year.

11:35am: The Cubs have avoided arbitration with third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant, according to Jeff Passan of ESPN.com (Twitter link). He’ll earn $18.6MM in 2020.

That’s right on the projected valuation produced by the MLBTR/Matt Swartz model, which pegged Bryant at $18.5MM. The model seemed to (and did) match up with the real-world situation, as Matt explained in a detailed look at Bryant’s case. It’s a nice raise on his $12.9MM salary from 2019.

Bryant, who recently turned 28, continues to churn out productive seasons. He was limited somewhat by injuries in 2018 but appeared in 147 contests in the just-completed campaign, slashing .282/.382/.521 and driving 31 balls over the fence.

This settles one of the winter’s open questions involving Bryant and the Cubs — but certainly not the most interesting one. We’re still awaiting the outcome of a service-time grievance brought by the player surrounding the eyebrow-raising timing of his initial promotion to the majors. The resolution of that situation promises to impact ongoing trade talks involving the long-time Chicago star. It seems clear that the organization is interested in exploring scenarios involving Bryant and other top players, though it’s unclear as yet whether he or any other key piece will end up on the move.

Cubs Have Initiated Extension Talks With Javier Baez

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The Cubs have initiated discussions with star shortstop Javier Baez about a contract extension, per Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times (via Twitter). The course of these early-offseason negotiations could play a role in shaping the remainder of the organization’s winter roster efforts, Wittenmyer adds.

It isn’t surprising to learn that Baez is a target for a long-term deal. His play on the field made that a more or less foregone conclusion. But the timing is interesting, less so because of Baez himself than because of the potential ramifications. It isn’t as if teams never explore deals at this time of year, though it’s more common to see extensions negotiated in earnest during Spring Training.

Cubs GM Jed Hoyer said recently that the team “had a stable core for five years” but is “going to have change” this winter. (Via Jon Heyman of MLB Network, on Twitter.) That obviously didn’t mean that the Chicago org was planning to blow things up, but it certainly suggests that a few roster fixtures could potentially be dangled in trade.

It doesn’t require much in the way of reading between the lines to see that the Baez talks could potentially be rather important. Getting something done with the flashy performer might make it easier for the Cubs to swing a blockbuster deal involving other key assets. Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras, and Kyle Schwarber are among the notable names that have been kicked around as speculative possibilities, though it’s unclear which if any will be seriously dangled in trade talks — let alone just what it’d take for the Cubs to part with one or more such players.

As for Baez, he projects to earn a $9.3MM salary in his second-to-last season of arbitration eligibility. He played last year for $5.2MM, a salary that fell well shy of his projected value. Regardless, Baez has already secured significant earnings so won’t be desperate to make a deal. And he’s close enough to free agency that he will have solid leverage to bring into talks. Soon to turn 27, Baez has a good number of youthful seasons still on offer.

Talks between the Cubs and Baez’s reps at Wasserman will surely be interesting. Baez is a tough player to value in some respects, if only because he succeeds against the grain of today’s game. Baez walked just 5.0% of the time last year while turning in a 27.8% strikeout rate, but (as usual) logged a monster .345 BABIP that allowed him to carry a .281/.316/.531 batting line (114 wRC+). With glovework and baserunning included, it was a 4.4 fWAR/4.8 rWAR campaign.

The Cubs obviously believe Baez can continue to convert on his elite bat speed and other physical tools. But they’ll surely also point out some of the demerits in his game in talking about a new contract. And it’s possible the team will want to avoid taking a deal too deep into Baez’s thirties. It’ll be interesting to see what the sides settle at if they’re able to agree to terms. But it could be even more interesting to see what happens to the Cubs’ winter plans if they fail to gain traction in talks to lock down Baez for the long haul.

Theo Epstein On Bryant, Baez, Team Needs, Managerial Search

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Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein met with reporters Monday to discuss the team’s disappointing season, its upcoming winter and its newly launched search for a manager. Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times, Jordan Bastian of MLB.com and Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune were among those on hand.

Just as previous manager Joe Maddon wasn’t safe after the Cubs sputtered to 84-78 finish, multiple stars on the team’s roster could be in danger of exiting the franchise. Specifically, Epstein seemingly isn’t slamming the door shut on potential trades involving third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant or shortstop Javier Baez.

“I think they’re both hugely important, and it’d be hard to see them out of a Cubs uniform, but we’re at a transition point, and we have to do whatever is best for the Cubs,” Epstein said. “I hope it includes both of those guys.”

As two of the finest players in the game, Bryant and Baez have been vital to the Cubs’ cause throughout their careers. However, the club’s control over them is waning. Both players are scheduled to enter arbitration for the second-last time during the winter, with the former NL MVP Bryant about to become especially expensive. Bryant earned $12.9MM this season, during which the 27-year-old posted star-caliber numbers yet again. Baez, 26, took home a more modest $5.2MM, and though injuries held him to 138 appearances, he enjoyed his second straight year of premier production for his position.

As of last February, the Cubs hadn’t discussed extensions with either Bryant or Baez. If the Cubs aren’t optimistic they can lock up either player, that could possibly persuade them to shop one or both. However, contending without Bryant and-or Baez would only be more difficult, and Epstein noted that winning “is a priority” in 2020 “because we’re now just two years away from a lot of our best players reaching the end of their period of control with the Cubs.”

Regardless of what happens with Bryant or Baez, Epstein revealed the Cubs are going to address center field and second base in the offseason. That suggests center fielder Albert Almora Jr., middle infielder Addison Russell, and utilitymen David Bote and maybe Ian Happ are “in flux,” Wittenmyer writes, who adds that the majority of the roster could be in play for trades (with the potential exceptions of catcher Willson Contreras, first baseman Anthony Rizzo and right-hander Kyle Hendricks).

As for who will be managing what could be a drastically different Chicago roster next season, former Cubs catcher and current special assistant David Ross has already thrown his hat in the ring. Epstein admitted there’s interest in hiring the fan favorite to take over for Joe Maddon, saying: “I think Rossy is an attractive candidate and will be evaluated on the merits of what he can bring to the table as a major-league manager. Given his skills, his experiences, his worldview, what he knows about winning, just as every other managerial candidate will be evaluated.”

Ross is part of a “broad list” of preliminary candidates, according to Epstein, with reports indicating it could also include bench coach Mark Loretta. The Cubs expect to start interviewing targets next week, and though hiring someone with previous managerial experience isn’t “a determining factor,” it is a “significant factor,” Epstein stated. “I have a greater comfort for someone handling the role before.”

Theo Epstein Plans To Stay With Cubs

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For the first time since 2014, the Cubs aren’t going to qualify for the postseason. They were in the driver’s seat for a playoff spot for most of the season, but a September collapse has doomed the club to a bitterly disappointing finish. The Cubs’ late-season demise will not lead president of baseball operations Theo Epstein to exit the organization, however.

Epstein shot down any speculation to the contrary Wednesday, saying (via Jesse Rogers of ESPNChicago.com): “I’m here [with the Cubs]. We have a lot we need to work on to get back to the level we’re accustomed to. I’m invested in that. That’s what I’m focused on.”

Epstein added that the idea of “waking up and trying to build the next Cubs championship team” still excites him. The architect of Chicago’s curse-breaking title-winning team in 2016, Epstein has been enormously successful since he stepped down as Boston’s general manager in 2011 to run the Cubs. However, thanks to the unhappy ending to the Cubs’ season and the Red Sox’s need for a new leader in their baseball department, speculation arose of a possible Epstein-Boston reunion. If we’re to believe Epstein, though, the Red Sox will have to find Dave Dombrowski’s replacement elsewhere.

As things stand, Epstein still has another two seasons remaining on the five-year, $50MM extension he signed with the Cubs in September 2016. While Epstein’s immediate future in Chicago is secure, the same surely doesn’t apply to a fair amount of this year’s roster. He and the rest of his front office cohorts will spend the next several months trying to construct a team that doesn’t fall apart in crunch time, which figures to lead to quite a bit of offseason turnover. Even championship-winning manager Joe Maddon may not be safe. Maddon has made it known that he wants to manage the team for a sixth season in 2020, though he doesn’t have a contract beyond this year. Epstein declined to reveal when he’ll decide Maddon’s future, per Rogers.

Whether or not Maddon returns next season, he likely won’t have either of the Cubs’ top two players – third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant or shortstop Javier Baez – for the rest of 2019. Maddon said Wednesday (via Tony Andracki of NBC Sports Chcago) that it’s unlikely either will play again until next season. Bryant has been out since he sprained his right ankle last Sunday, while Baez has taken just two at-bats this month (none since last Saturday) after suffering a hairline fracture in his left thumb. The futures of both players will be on the minds of Epstein & Co. during the winter, when Bryant and Baez are each scheduled to go through arbitration for the second-last time.

NL Injury Notes: Baez, Weaver, Brewers, Rockies

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The Cubs will evaluate shortstop Javier Baez by week’s end to see when he’ll be able to start rehab activity, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times tweets. The club has been without Baez for just about all of September because of a hairline fracture in his left thumb, and it’s likely the injury will prevent the star from suiting up again in the regular season as Chicago tries to at least earn a wild-card berth. The Baez-less Cubs have been turning to recently recalled youngster Nico Hoerner at short, and fortunately for them, he has begun his career in outstanding fashion. Thanks in part to Hoerner’s contributions, the Cubs are 6-2 dating back to his Sept. 9 debut.

More injury updates from around the National League…

  • Diamondbacks right-hander Luke Weaver may be a “couple days” from returning to a major league mound, per Zach Buchanan of The Athletic. Weaver threw a successful bullpen session Tuesday as he works back from forearm and ulnar collateral ligament issues that have shelved him since late May. The offseason acquisition, who joined the D-backs via their Paul Goldschmidt trade with the Cardinals, had been amid a stellar campaign before landing on the shelf. Weaver owns a 3.03 ERA/3.11 FIP with 9.82 K/9 and 2.02 BB/9 in 62 1/3 innings on the season. While Arizona’s playoff hopes have faded this year, the hope is Weaver and fellow young righty Zac Gallen will be among those to help drive the team back into contention in 2020.
  • Brewers righty reliever Corey Knebel is “continuing to make progress” in his recovery from the Tommy John procedure he underwent in March, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel relays. Knebel expects to return to throwing from a mound when spring training rolls around, per Haudricourt. It’s all the more impressive on the Brewers’ part that they’re in the thick of the wild-card hunt without having received anything from Knebel, who was one of their best bullpen options from 2017-18.
  • Rockies southpaw Kyle Freeland is nearing a late-season return, according to Nick Groke of The Athletic. A strained groin has kept Freeland from taking a big league mound since Aug. 20, but he’ll be able to make two more starts (albeit at just two to three innings per appearance) this year, Groke notes. Freeland will attempt to end his surprisingly dismal season on a high note when he suits up again. One of the NL’s premier pitchers just a year ago, Freeland has been just the opposite in 2019. The 26-year-old has logged a 6.98 ERA/6.13 FIP across 99 1/3 frames, and his struggles led the Rockies to demote him to the minors earlier in the season.

Javier Baez Unlikely To Return In September

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The Cubs announced today that Cubs shortstop Javier Baez likely won’t be able to return to the field of play this month, with ESPN.com’s Jesse Rogers among those covering the news on Twitter. He’s planning to rehab his hairline thumb fracture in hopes of being ready for some or all of the postseason.

The news is obviously disappointing, if not unexpected given recent developments. That said, it’s promising that the examination by a specialist did not result in the identification of any damage to thumb ligaments.

Going without Baez undoubtedly hurts the Cubs, who are still trying to chase down the Cardinals in the NL Central while holding off challengers for the final Wild Card spot. With Addison Russell also sidelined, the club was forced to dip into its minor-league system and call up top prospect Nico Hoerner today.

While Baez won’t be able to help the Cubs make it into the postseason, it seems there’s still hope he’ll return to action if they do qualify. His progress, therefore, remains of keen interest even though it doesn’t seem there’s any cause for long-term worry.

Javier Baez Has Hairline Fracture In Thumb, Timeline Unclear

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An MRI today revealed that Cubs shortstop Javier Baez has a hairline fracture in his left thumb, per Jesse Rogers of ESPN. He’ll visit a specialist on Monday for further evaluation. Though the Cubs have yet to release a timeline for his return, it’s possible that this could mean the end of the season for the star infielder.

Baez has missed the last four games after suffering the injury while sliding into second base on September 1. Initial X-rays came back negative and Baez sought to return to the lineup on Thursday, but the persistence of discomfort during batting practice forced him to sit out as the team scheduled a follow-up MRI. Saturday night’s matchup with the Brewers will mark the fifth consecutive game without Baez in the lineup.

Though any injury this late in the season spells trouble for a playoff-hopeful club, this feels especially devastating for the Cubs. Baez has rightfully garnered a reputation as the lifeblood of the Cubs, not only as a mainstay in the middle of the batting order, but as one of the finest defensive infielders in baseball. By Baseball-Reference’s measure of WAR, he has been the most valuable Cub this season, a repeat of last year’s breakout.

Without Baez, Addison Russell is next in line to man the shortstop position. While his defensive talent at the position rivals that of Baez, it’s undebatable that his offensive production leaves much to be desired. If the Cubs, who find themselves in the heat of a contested playoff race, are to overtake the first-place Cardinals, Russell and the rest of the Cubs will need to pick up the slack. If indeed Baez is forced to miss the remainder of the season, it’s an injury that could have a significant impact on the National League Wild-Card chase.

This season, Baez has slashed .281/.316/.532 and has slugged 29 home runs, doubling down on the power surge that carried him to a second-place MVP finish a year ago. On defense, he’s tallied 15 DRS and earned a 9.6 Ultimate Zone Rating, both of which place him among the three best defensive shortstops in baseball.

Cubs Injury Updates: Baez, Darvish, Kimbrel

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Cubs skipper Joe Maddon provided updates on an important trio of players today, with MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian among those covering the news. (Links to his Twitter account unless otherwise noted.)

  • Star infielder Javier Baez is going to undergo an MRI on his thumb tomorrow. There’s still no cause for alarm, but it’s certainly suboptimal to hear that he’s not recovering promptly after getting three games off. Initial x-rays came back negative, but the club is obviously interested in making sure there isn’t some other injury lurking in the digit. Deep as the Cubbies are in position players, Baez — who owns a .281/.316/.532 slash line with 29 home runs on the year — is all but irreplaceable. Baez certainly won’t be in the lineup until Sunday, at the earliest. The organization’s hope is that it won’t be long thereafter before he’s ready to return. Obviously, a significant injury would be devastating at this time of year.
  • Issues in or near the elbow are always a red flag for a pitcher, so it was at least somewhat worrisome to learn that righty Yu Darvish has experienced forearm tightness of late. But it seem he isn’t terribly concerned about it, having already managed things since early July — and thrived over that same span. The veteran says he won’t need to miss any further action after being skipped in his last scheduled start. He’ll pitch tomorrow. Maddon said Darvish looked great in his latest pen session and is “ready to roll,” as Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune tweets.
  • Speaking of ailments in the elbow region, the Cubs were holding their breath when closer Craig Kimbrel went in for an MRI. He says that the results were quite promising and that he hopes to be ready to return when first eligible on Thursday. That said, the veteran hurler hasn’t yet resumed throwing after spending some time on ice to let his inflammation subside. As he acknowledged, the precise course of action will depend upon how it goes once he does get back on the bump.

NL Central Notes: Jeffress, Kela, Baez, Darvish, Suarez, Reds

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The Brewers released Jeremy Jeffress today, but before parting ways with the former All-Star, Milwaukee tried shopping the reliever within the NL Central.  The Athletic’s Robert Murray reported back in July that the Brewers and Pirates were discussing a trade that involved Keone Kela, and Murray reports today that a Jeffress-for-Kela swap was floated between the division rivals, though “talks never gained traction.”

While the Bucs were (and possibly still are) open to moving Kela in trade negotiations, the controversial right-hander isn’t necessarily a totally expendable piece for the Pirates, whereas Jeffress was clearly no longer in Milwaukee’s plans, as GM David Stearns indicated today to Murray and other reporters.  While Stearns left the door open for a potential reunion with Jeffress down the road, the reliever was hampered by a lack of trust in his splitter and a loss of velocity, possibly due to a heavy workload in 2018 or a shoulder injury that sidelined him for most of Spring Training.  “I think his arsenal changed this year.  That’s something that’s been well documented, not only with the fastball velocity but with the loss of a pitch that had become extremely important in his repertoire,” Stearns said.  “When you lose a pitch, you have to become a different pitcher and it’s certainly possible that Jeremy can become a different pitcher and be effective. We just didn’t see it consistently enough to count on him at any point this year.”

Here’s more from around the NL Central…

  • The Cubs received a twin dose of injury scares on Sunday when Yu Darvish was scratched from his start due to right forearm tightness.  In that same game, Javier Baez suffered a sore neck and a jammed left thumb after sliding into Orlando Arcia’s knee during a third-inning steal of second base.  Baez stayed in the game before being removed in the seventh, and while he may miss a game or two, x-rays were negative on his hand and the shortstop expects to be fine.  Darvish’s injury is more ominous, particularly since the righty has been dealing with the issue for his last five outings, as pitching coach Tommy Hottovy and manager Joe Maddon told reporters (including MLB.com’s Russell Dorsey).  Despite the late scratch, Maddon thinks Darvish will be ready to make his next turn in the rotation.  Needless to say, the Cubs can’t afford to lose any key contributors given the tight status of both the NL Central and NL wild card races.
  • Eugenio Suarez left the Reds’ 5-3 win over the Cardinals tonight after being hit on the left hand during a fifth inning plate appearance.  Suarez will be evaluated tomorrow after the swelling subsides.  The third baseman has continued to be an offensive force for the Reds (.261/.342/.546 with 40 home runs in 568 plate appearances) despite a worrying spike in swing-and-miss, as Suarez has a league-high 161 strikeouts.
  • The Reds’ pitching has gone from a major weakness in 2018 to a strength in 2019, and while some new acquisitions like Sonny Gray and (the since-traded) Tanner Roark played a part in that improvement, Cincinnati’s biggest addition might have been pitching coach Derek Johnson.  C. Trent Rosecrans and Eno Sarris of The Athletic (subscription required) break down how several of the Reds’ arms have changed their tactics from last season now that they’re under Johnson’s tutelage.

Report: Tigers Were Offered Baez, Bregman In 2017 Offers For Michael Fulmer

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Between a down year in 2018 and then Tommy John surgery in March 2019, Michael Fulmer has fallen off the radar for many fans outside of the Motor City.  Yet it wasn’t long ago that Fulmer was one the most sought-after trade chips in baseball, hotly pursued by multiple teams in the aftermath of a Rookie Of The Year season in 2016, and a strong sophomore year that saw him post a 3.83 ERA, 2.85 K/BB rate, and 6.2 K/9 over 164 2/3 innings in 2017, though Fulmer’s year was cut short by elbow surgery.

It was during that 2017 season that the Tigers finally went into full rebuild mode, trading Justin Verlander, Justin Upton, J.D. Martinez, and others before the trading period finally halted at the end of August.  Fulmer received plenty of attention from trade suitors, though he wasn’t as obvious of a moveable asset given that he still had so many years of team control remaining.

Nonetheless, the Tigers received some sizeable offers for his services, and according to Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press, these offers included two blockbusters for future All-Stars.  The Tigers reportedly declined a three-player package from the Cubs that would have seen Javier Baez head to Detroit in exchange for Fulmer, while the Astros were willing to give up Alex Bregman for both Fulmer and left-hander Justin Wilson.

It makes for an eye-popping case of hindsight for the Tigers and their fans, considering how the three principal figures of those offers have since performed.  Baez and Bregman are simply two of the game’s best players, each collecting All-Star appearances in both 2018 and 2019, while Baez finished second in NL MVP voting last season while Bregman racked up a fifth-place finish in the 2018 AL MVP race and also played a big role in the Astros’ 2017 World Series title.

Fulmer, by contrast, hasn’t matched his early potential due to injuries and perhaps simply some statistical regression.  Whether he can regain his former front-of-the-rotation status is a question that can’t be answered until at least a few months into the 2020 season (or perhaps until 2021, if Fulmer is one of many pitchers who under-performs in their first several starts back from TJ surgery).

There were some rumors about a Cubs/Tigers trade involving Fulmer back in 2017, prior to Chicago’s acquisition of Jose Quintana from the White Sox, though Detroit reportedly wanted both Baez and Ian Happ as part of a Fulmer trade package.  Bregman and Fulmer were never linked in any trade talks, and one wonders if the Astros only floated the idea fairly early in the year, since Bregman was installed as the team’s everyday third baseman from Opening Day onward.  Needless to say, Bregman was no longer on the table by the time Houston and Detroit collaborated on their actual 2017 blockbuster, the championship-deciding deal that sent Verlander to the Astros on August 31.

In fairness to the Tigers, every front office has countless examples of instances where they missed out on a trade or a signing that would have been a steal.  Likewise, from the Cubs’ and Astros’ perspective, every team can cite numerous cases where they lucked out in not making a transaction.  But the Fulmer situation looms large, Fenech notes, given how Detroit has been unable to maximize the return on several of their top trade assets during their rebuild.

Several scouts from around the league weren’t very impressed by the four total prospects Detroit received from the Cubs and Braves in trade deadline swaps of Nicolas Castellanos and Shane Greene.  The Tigers also weren’t able to trade Matt Boyd, perhaps their most valuable trade chip, at all.  While “multiple executives indicated Boyd’s trade value will never be as high as it was at 3:59 p.m. on Wednesday” prior to the trade deadline, it seems that Detroit’s asking price on Boyd was simply too exorbitant.  One National League exec told Fenech that the Tigers’ demands were “borderline comical,” and an AL executive describing Detroit’s front office as “impossible to deal with.”

The Tigers also asked for a lot in their attempts to trade Greene.  For instance, Detroit asked the Nationals for top infield prospect Carter Kieboom, and Fenech also reports that the Nationals turned down an offer for Luis Garcia, another prized young infielder.

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