Extension Notes: Baez, Minor, Realmuto
Reports back in November indicated that the Cubs had initiated extension talks with star shortstop Javier Baez, but Baez himself said as recently as mid-February that talks on that front have been “up and down.” Asked about the potential of signing a long-term deal in the wake of this week’s seven-year extension for division rival Christian Yelich, Baez told Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times that Yelich’s seven-year, $188.5MM extension “doesn’t have anything to do with mine.” Baez acknowledged that he and the Cubs are still “working on” a long-term deal, though there’s no indication that talks have gained significant momentum.
Cubs president of baseball ops Theo Epstein declined to discuss talks with Baez or any other player in detail, merely indicating that the Cubs have tried to sign several players long term. “It’s not worth talking about,” Epstein said of his team’s extension efforts. “If we can get it done, we will. If we can’t, then we’ll move forward. But players don’t have an obligation to sign.” Baez is earning $10MM in 2020 and will be arbitration-eligible one last time next winter before reaching free agency in the 2021-22 offseason.
Some more notes on potential extensions for high-end players…
- Mike Minor has previously made his desire to sign an extension with the Rangers known, but the left-hander told Sam Blum of the Dallas Morning News that “nothing’s happened.” The 32-year-old said he’s not the type to “put a hard deadline kind of thing” on talks before immediately contradicting that statement (to an extent) by adding that he doesn’t want to discuss a new contract during the season. Getting a new deal done before Opening Day would be a “best case” scenario, per Minor, who pitched to a 3.59 ERA with 8.6 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 1.30 HR/9 and a 40 percent ground-ball rate in a career-high 208 1/3 innings with Texas in 2019. Minor is owed a $9.83MM salary in 2020 — the final season of a three-year, $28MM deal signed with Texas prior to the 2018 campaign. Minor figures to be one of the better arms available on next year’s market and was an honorable mention on the first edition of MLBTR’s 2020-21 Free Agent Power Rankings.
- The Phillies continue to discuss an extension with free-agent-to-be J.T. Realmuto, writes Todd Zolecki of MLB.com. The desire to get a long-term deal worked out isn’t exactly a well-kept secret, as both sides have made their desire to continue the relationship beyond 2020 known. Zolecki reports that talks between the two sides are moving slowly at this point, however. Realmuto for the first time this spring publicly acknowledged that the two sides are indeed talking but wouldn’t specify beyond that, simply stating that there’s “no update” at this time. Realmuto landed second on the first edition of MLBTR’s Free Agent Power Rankings, wherein Tim Dierkes observed that the 29-year-old is one more strong season away from being the first free-agent catcher to ever sign a deal worth more than $100MM.
Ricketts On Cubs’ Outlook
Cubs chairman Tom Ricketts faced the press after a surprisingly quiet winter, proclaiming a “fresh start” and exuding optimism. MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian transcribed the session.
Ricketts made no question of the goal: to return to the top of the heap in the National League Central. And he left no doubt of his belief in the roster’s ability to do it, calling the Cubs “the best team in our division.”
The Theo Epstein-led baseball operations department — what Ricketts terms “the best front office in baseball” — has acknowledged that it anticipated more significant roster turnover. But that doesn’t change the assessment for the team’s owner. Ricketts says that “everyone should feel very strongly that we have all the right pieces in place to get us back to the top.”
Bolstering his optimism is the presence of new skipper Davis Ross. Ricketts says the new hire seems thus far to be “the right guy,” labeling Ross “a really dynamic, exciting new manager.”
Was there anything else to cover? Oh, right … payroll. Jokes aside, finances dominated the conversation.
Ricketts was asked directly whether the Competitive Balance Tax threshold formed the team’s spending limit this year. He acknowledged having a budget and strongly considering the impacts of the luxury line. But Ricketts also denied that they’re one and the same, explaining that luxury penalties “aren’t defining the decisions in the front office, but they’re always a consideration in the front office.” And he said it’s always possible the organization “might stretch the budget” if circumstances warrant.
There were plenty more stretches of discussion to the same essential effect. We might sum it up this way: the Cubs have spent what they can for now, but they might consider adding more (or, presumably, could trim) depending upon how things look come late July.
Broadly, Ricketts focused on — you guessed it — sustainable winning, explaining that the club carries a “strategy of trying to be as consistent as possible to make the playoffs as often as possible.” The amount of money spent is less important than the decisions made, he emphasized several times. Neither statement reveals much of substance.
The other big issue that was addressed was the long-term relationship with star infielders Kris Bryant and Javier Baez. As for the former, Ricketts spoke fondly, largely dismissed chatter about his trade availability without ruling it out, and generally tried to strike a positive tone on the heels of a grievance proceeding that went the team’s way. Will either or both be extended, even if it’d mean stretching the future budget? “That’s in Theo’s camp,” Ricketts said, before noting that the ownership group would “have to take a look at what that all would mean for us financially.”
Javier Baez: Extension Talks With Cubs Have Been “Up And Down”
While almost all of the Cubs’ star players have been mentioned as speculative trade chips this offseason, Javier Baez has just about the one exception, as there has been more focus on the possibility that he will remain in Chicago over the long term. The Cubs and Baez’s representatives at Wasserman began talks about a multi-year extension back in November, and Baez provided something of an update to reporters (including Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times and ESPN.com’s Jesse Rogers) today, saying the negotiations had “been up and down” between the two sides.
“It’s business. It’s really tough,” Baez said. “I’ll let them work that out, and if it works, great. If not, we have another year.”
Most major extensions aren’t settled until Spring Training has already begun (i.e. last year’s flurry of multi-year deals around the sport), so it could be that the Baez talks still start to ramp up as we approach Opening Day. Most players prefer to have negotiations settled before the season begins to avoid distractions, and Baez didn’t entirely close the door on talks extending into the season. “It depends on my agency and how they want to do it. But I do want to be focused on baseball,” the shortstop said.
At the very least, Baez’s salary for the 2020 season has already been decided, as he and the Cubs avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $10MM deal. This was Baez’s second arb-eligible year, and he is schedule for one final trip through the arbitration process next winter before hitting free agency following the 2021 season. Teammate Kris Bryant, notably, is under the same amount of team control, though he has been the subject of multiple trade rumors due to both his higher salary ($18.6MM in 2020) and Cubs ownership’s desire to avoid luxury tax payments, as well as the perception that Bryant (who is represented by Scott Boras) will be harder to sign to a long-term deal.
Baez is also 11 months younger than Bryant and is one of the sport’s better defenders at a premium position, making him perhaps a more attractive option for an extension than Bryant just in pure baseball terms, as much as money is obviously clearly a major factor in the Cubs’ decision-making. From Baez’s perspective, “I wish and hope we both stay here. Obviously, we want to keep everyone here because we have pretty much the team that won [the 2016 World Series]. We’ve got a lot of talent, and pretty much everyone is close to the same age.”
That said, Baez noted that personnel decisions are “up to [the team], to be honest,” and “It’s the business side….We’ve got to understand that and keep moving forward.”
Despite all of the buzz surrounding the Cubs all winter, the team hasn’t created many ripples in terms of actual moves, as Chicago has spent little on MLB free agents while also not moving in the other direction and unloading a star player (i.e. Bryant, Willson Contreras, Kyle Schwarber, etc.) in order to free up payroll space. Extending Baez would help lessen the negativity that many Chicago fans have expressed about the team’s relative lack of action both this offseason and last, though it could also be the case that the Cubs still want to get one notable contract off the books before locking up Baez and expanding his current luxury tax number.
Cubs Avoid Arbitration With Kris Bryant, Javier Baez
3:07pm: The Cubs will pay Javier Baez an even $10MM, per Jeff Passan of ESPN.com (via Twitter). That’s $700K north of his projected earning point. The sides are said to be interested in hammering out a longer-term contract, which remains possible after working out a 2020 salary.
3:00pm: Several other key Cubs players also have deals, per ESPNChicago.com’s Jesse Rogers (Twitter links). Catcher Willson Contreras receives a $4.5MM salary, right on the MLBTR projection. Outfielder Kyle Schwarber will play for $7.01MM, south of the $8MM that the model predicted.
In other deals, the Cubs will pay southpaw Kyle Ryan $975K, according to Robert Murray (Twitter links). And outfielder Albert Almora will earn $1.575MM this year.
11:35am: The Cubs have avoided arbitration with third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant, according to Jeff Passan of ESPN.com (Twitter link). He’ll earn $18.6MM in 2020.
That’s right on the projected valuation produced by the MLBTR/Matt Swartz model, which pegged Bryant at $18.5MM. The model seemed to (and did) match up with the real-world situation, as Matt explained in a detailed look at Bryant’s case. It’s a nice raise on his $12.9MM salary from 2019.
Bryant, who recently turned 28, continues to churn out productive seasons. He was limited somewhat by injuries in 2018 but appeared in 147 contests in the just-completed campaign, slashing .282/.382/.521 and driving 31 balls over the fence.
This settles one of the winter’s open questions involving Bryant and the Cubs — but certainly not the most interesting one. We’re still awaiting the outcome of a service-time grievance brought by the player surrounding the eyebrow-raising timing of his initial promotion to the majors. The resolution of that situation promises to impact ongoing trade talks involving the long-time Chicago star. It seems clear that the organization is interested in exploring scenarios involving Bryant and other top players, though it’s unclear as yet whether he or any other key piece will end up on the move.
Cubs Have Initiated Extension Talks With Javier Baez
The Cubs have initiated discussions with star shortstop Javier Baez about a contract extension, per Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times (via Twitter). The course of these early-offseason negotiations could play a role in shaping the remainder of the organization’s winter roster efforts, Wittenmyer adds.
It isn’t surprising to learn that Baez is a target for a long-term deal. His play on the field made that a more or less foregone conclusion. But the timing is interesting, less so because of Baez himself than because of the potential ramifications. It isn’t as if teams never explore deals at this time of year, though it’s more common to see extensions negotiated in earnest during Spring Training.
Cubs GM Jed Hoyer said recently that the team “had a stable core for five years” but is “going to have change” this winter. (Via Jon Heyman of MLB Network, on Twitter.) That obviously didn’t mean that the Chicago org was planning to blow things up, but it certainly suggests that a few roster fixtures could potentially be dangled in trade.
It doesn’t require much in the way of reading between the lines to see that the Baez talks could potentially be rather important. Getting something done with the flashy performer might make it easier for the Cubs to swing a blockbuster deal involving other key assets. Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras, and Kyle Schwarber are among the notable names that have been kicked around as speculative possibilities, though it’s unclear which if any will be seriously dangled in trade talks — let alone just what it’d take for the Cubs to part with one or more such players.
As for Baez, he projects to earn a $9.3MM salary in his second-to-last season of arbitration eligibility. He played last year for $5.2MM, a salary that fell well shy of his projected value. Regardless, Baez has already secured significant earnings so won’t be desperate to make a deal. And he’s close enough to free agency that he will have solid leverage to bring into talks. Soon to turn 27, Baez has a good number of youthful seasons still on offer.
Talks between the Cubs and Baez’s reps at Wasserman will surely be interesting. Baez is a tough player to value in some respects, if only because he succeeds against the grain of today’s game. Baez walked just 5.0% of the time last year while turning in a 27.8% strikeout rate, but (as usual) logged a monster .345 BABIP that allowed him to carry a .281/.316/.531 batting line (114 wRC+). With glovework and baserunning included, it was a 4.4 fWAR/4.8 rWAR campaign.
The Cubs obviously believe Baez can continue to convert on his elite bat speed and other physical tools. But they’ll surely also point out some of the demerits in his game in talking about a new contract. And it’s possible the team will want to avoid taking a deal too deep into Baez’s thirties. It’ll be interesting to see what the sides settle at if they’re able to agree to terms. But it could be even more interesting to see what happens to the Cubs’ winter plans if they fail to gain traction in talks to lock down Baez for the long haul.
Theo Epstein On Bryant, Baez, Team Needs, Managerial Search
Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein met with reporters Monday to discuss the team’s disappointing season, its upcoming winter and its newly launched search for a manager. Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times, Jordan Bastian of MLB.com and Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune were among those on hand.
Just as previous manager Joe Maddon wasn’t safe after the Cubs sputtered to 84-78 finish, multiple stars on the team’s roster could be in danger of exiting the franchise. Specifically, Epstein seemingly isn’t slamming the door shut on potential trades involving third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant or shortstop Javier Baez.
“I think they’re both hugely important, and it’d be hard to see them out of a Cubs uniform, but we’re at a transition point, and we have to do whatever is best for the Cubs,” Epstein said. “I hope it includes both of those guys.”
As two of the finest players in the game, Bryant and Baez have been vital to the Cubs’ cause throughout their careers. However, the club’s control over them is waning. Both players are scheduled to enter arbitration for the second-last time during the winter, with the former NL MVP Bryant about to become especially expensive. Bryant earned $12.9MM this season, during which the 27-year-old posted star-caliber numbers yet again. Baez, 26, took home a more modest $5.2MM, and though injuries held him to 138 appearances, he enjoyed his second straight year of premier production for his position.
As of last February, the Cubs hadn’t discussed extensions with either Bryant or Baez. If the Cubs aren’t optimistic they can lock up either player, that could possibly persuade them to shop one or both. However, contending without Bryant and-or Baez would only be more difficult, and Epstein noted that winning “is a priority” in 2020 “because we’re now just two years away from a lot of our best players reaching the end of their period of control with the Cubs.”
Regardless of what happens with Bryant or Baez, Epstein revealed the Cubs are going to address center field and second base in the offseason. That suggests center fielder Albert Almora Jr., middle infielder Addison Russell, and utilitymen David Bote and maybe Ian Happ are “in flux,” Wittenmyer writes, who adds that the majority of the roster could be in play for trades (with the potential exceptions of catcher Willson Contreras, first baseman Anthony Rizzo and right-hander Kyle Hendricks).
As for who will be managing what could be a drastically different Chicago roster next season, former Cubs catcher and current special assistant David Ross has already thrown his hat in the ring. Epstein admitted there’s interest in hiring the fan favorite to take over for Joe Maddon, saying: “I think Rossy is an attractive candidate and will be evaluated on the merits of what he can bring to the table as a major-league manager. Given his skills, his experiences, his worldview, what he knows about winning, just as every other managerial candidate will be evaluated.”
Ross is part of a “broad list” of preliminary candidates, according to Epstein, with reports indicating it could also include bench coach Mark Loretta. The Cubs expect to start interviewing targets next week, and though hiring someone with previous managerial experience isn’t “a determining factor,” it is a “significant factor,” Epstein stated. “I have a greater comfort for someone handling the role before.”
Theo Epstein Plans To Stay With Cubs
For the first time since 2014, the Cubs aren’t going to qualify for the postseason. They were in the driver’s seat for a playoff spot for most of the season, but a September collapse has doomed the club to a bitterly disappointing finish. The Cubs’ late-season demise will not lead president of baseball operations Theo Epstein to exit the organization, however.
Epstein shot down any speculation to the contrary Wednesday, saying (via Jesse Rogers of ESPNChicago.com): “I’m here [with the Cubs]. We have a lot we need to work on to get back to the level we’re accustomed to. I’m invested in that. That’s what I’m focused on.”
Epstein added that the idea of “waking up and trying to build the next Cubs championship team” still excites him. The architect of Chicago’s curse-breaking title-winning team in 2016, Epstein has been enormously successful since he stepped down as Boston’s general manager in 2011 to run the Cubs. However, thanks to the unhappy ending to the Cubs’ season and the Red Sox’s need for a new leader in their baseball department, speculation arose of a possible Epstein-Boston reunion. If we’re to believe Epstein, though, the Red Sox will have to find Dave Dombrowski’s replacement elsewhere.
As things stand, Epstein still has another two seasons remaining on the five-year, $50MM extension he signed with the Cubs in September 2016. While Epstein’s immediate future in Chicago is secure, the same surely doesn’t apply to a fair amount of this year’s roster. He and the rest of his front office cohorts will spend the next several months trying to construct a team that doesn’t fall apart in crunch time, which figures to lead to quite a bit of offseason turnover. Even championship-winning manager Joe Maddon may not be safe. Maddon has made it known that he wants to manage the team for a sixth season in 2020, though he doesn’t have a contract beyond this year. Epstein declined to reveal when he’ll decide Maddon’s future, per Rogers.
Whether or not Maddon returns next season, he likely won’t have either of the Cubs’ top two players – third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant or shortstop Javier Baez – for the rest of 2019. Maddon said Wednesday (via Tony Andracki of NBC Sports Chcago) that it’s unlikely either will play again until next season. Bryant has been out since he sprained his right ankle last Sunday, while Baez has taken just two at-bats this month (none since last Saturday) after suffering a hairline fracture in his left thumb. The futures of both players will be on the minds of Epstein & Co. during the winter, when Bryant and Baez are each scheduled to go through arbitration for the second-last time.
NL Injury Notes: Baez, Weaver, Brewers, Rockies
The Cubs will evaluate shortstop Javier Baez by week’s end to see when he’ll be able to start rehab activity, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times tweets. The club has been without Baez for just about all of September because of a hairline fracture in his left thumb, and it’s likely the injury will prevent the star from suiting up again in the regular season as Chicago tries to at least earn a wild-card berth. The Baez-less Cubs have been turning to recently recalled youngster Nico Hoerner at short, and fortunately for them, he has begun his career in outstanding fashion. Thanks in part to Hoerner’s contributions, the Cubs are 6-2 dating back to his Sept. 9 debut.
More injury updates from around the National League…
- Diamondbacks right-hander Luke Weaver may be a “couple days” from returning to a major league mound, per Zach Buchanan of The Athletic. Weaver threw a successful bullpen session Tuesday as he works back from forearm and ulnar collateral ligament issues that have shelved him since late May. The offseason acquisition, who joined the D-backs via their Paul Goldschmidt trade with the Cardinals, had been amid a stellar campaign before landing on the shelf. Weaver owns a 3.03 ERA/3.11 FIP with 9.82 K/9 and 2.02 BB/9 in 62 1/3 innings on the season. While Arizona’s playoff hopes have faded this year, the hope is Weaver and fellow young righty Zac Gallen will be among those to help drive the team back into contention in 2020.
- Brewers righty reliever Corey Knebel is “continuing to make progress” in his recovery from the Tommy John procedure he underwent in March, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel relays. Knebel expects to return to throwing from a mound when spring training rolls around, per Haudricourt. It’s all the more impressive on the Brewers’ part that they’re in the thick of the wild-card hunt without having received anything from Knebel, who was one of their best bullpen options from 2017-18.
- Rockies southpaw Kyle Freeland is nearing a late-season return, according to Nick Groke of The Athletic. A strained groin has kept Freeland from taking a big league mound since Aug. 20, but he’ll be able to make two more starts (albeit at just two to three innings per appearance) this year, Groke notes. Freeland will attempt to end his surprisingly dismal season on a high note when he suits up again. One of the NL’s premier pitchers just a year ago, Freeland has been just the opposite in 2019. The 26-year-old has logged a 6.98 ERA/6.13 FIP across 99 1/3 frames, and his struggles led the Rockies to demote him to the minors earlier in the season.
Javier Baez Unlikely To Return In September
The Cubs announced today that Cubs shortstop Javier Baez likely won’t be able to return to the field of play this month, with ESPN.com’s Jesse Rogers among those covering the news on Twitter. He’s planning to rehab his hairline thumb fracture in hopes of being ready for some or all of the postseason.
The news is obviously disappointing, if not unexpected given recent developments. That said, it’s promising that the examination by a specialist did not result in the identification of any damage to thumb ligaments.
Going without Baez undoubtedly hurts the Cubs, who are still trying to chase down the Cardinals in the NL Central while holding off challengers for the final Wild Card spot. With Addison Russell also sidelined, the club was forced to dip into its minor-league system and call up top prospect Nico Hoerner today.
While Baez won’t be able to help the Cubs make it into the postseason, it seems there’s still hope he’ll return to action if they do qualify. His progress, therefore, remains of keen interest even though it doesn’t seem there’s any cause for long-term worry.
Javier Baez Has Hairline Fracture In Thumb, Timeline Unclear
An MRI today revealed that Cubs shortstop Javier Baez has a hairline fracture in his left thumb, per Jesse Rogers of ESPN. He’ll visit a specialist on Monday for further evaluation. Though the Cubs have yet to release a timeline for his return, it’s possible that this could mean the end of the season for the star infielder.
Baez has missed the last four games after suffering the injury while sliding into second base on September 1. Initial X-rays came back negative and Baez sought to return to the lineup on Thursday, but the persistence of discomfort during batting practice forced him to sit out as the team scheduled a follow-up MRI. Saturday night’s matchup with the Brewers will mark the fifth consecutive game without Baez in the lineup.
Though any injury this late in the season spells trouble for a playoff-hopeful club, this feels especially devastating for the Cubs. Baez has rightfully garnered a reputation as the lifeblood of the Cubs, not only as a mainstay in the middle of the batting order, but as one of the finest defensive infielders in baseball. By Baseball-Reference’s measure of WAR, he has been the most valuable Cub this season, a repeat of last year’s breakout.
Without Baez, Addison Russell is next in line to man the shortstop position. While his defensive talent at the position rivals that of Baez, it’s undebatable that his offensive production leaves much to be desired. If the Cubs, who find themselves in the heat of a contested playoff race, are to overtake the first-place Cardinals, Russell and the rest of the Cubs will need to pick up the slack. If indeed Baez is forced to miss the remainder of the season, it’s an injury that could have a significant impact on the National League Wild-Card chase.
This season, Baez has slashed .281/.316/.532 and has slugged 29 home runs, doubling down on the power surge that carried him to a second-place MVP finish a year ago. On defense, he’s tallied 15 DRS and earned a 9.6 Ultimate Zone Rating, both of which place him among the three best defensive shortstops in baseball.