Javier Baez

While almost all of the Cubs’ star players have been mentioned as speculative trade chips this offseason, Javier Baez has just about the one exception, as there has been more focus on the possibility that he will remain in Chicago over the long term.  The Cubs and Baez’s representatives at Wasserman began talks about a multi-year extension back in November, and Baez provided something of an update to reporters (including Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times and ESPN.com’s Jesse Rogers) today, saying the negotiations had “been up and down” between the two sides.

“It’s business.  It’s really tough,” Baez said.  “I’ll let them work that out, and if it works, great.  If not, we have another year.”

Most major extensions aren’t settled until Spring Training has already begun (i.e. last year’s flurry of multi-year deals around the sport), so it could be that the Baez talks still start to ramp up as we approach Opening Day.  Most players prefer to have negotiations settled before the season begins to avoid distractions, and Baez didn’t entirely close the door on talks extending into the season.  “It depends on my agency and how they want to do it.  But I do want to be focused on baseball,” the shortstop said.

At the very least, Baez’s salary for the 2020 season has already been decided, as he and the Cubs avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $10MM deal.  This was Baez’s second arb-eligible year, and he is schedule for one final trip through the arbitration process next winter before hitting free agency following the 2021 season.  Teammate Kris Bryant, notably, is under the same amount of team control, though he has been the subject of multiple trade rumors due to both his higher salary ($18.6MM in 2020) and Cubs ownership’s desire to avoid luxury tax payments, as well as the perception that Bryant (who is represented by Scott Boras) will be harder to sign to a long-term deal.

Baez is also 11 months younger than Bryant and is one of the sport’s better defenders at a premium position, making him perhaps a more attractive option for an extension than Bryant just in pure baseball terms, as much as money is obviously clearly a major factor in the Cubs’ decision-making.  From Baez’s perspective, “I wish and hope we both stay here.  Obviously, we want to keep everyone here because we have pretty much the team that won [the 2016 World Series].  We’ve got a lot of talent, and pretty much everyone is close to the same age.”

That said, Baez noted that personnel decisions are “up to [the team], to be honest,” and “It’s the business side….We’ve got to understand that and keep moving forward.”

Despite all of the buzz surrounding the Cubs all winter, the team hasn’t created many ripples in terms of actual moves, as Chicago has spent little on MLB free agents while also not moving in the other direction and unloading a star player (i.e. Bryant, Willson Contreras, Kyle Schwarber, etc.) in order to free up payroll space.  Extending Baez would help lessen the negativity that many Chicago fans have expressed about the team’s relative lack of action both this offseason and last, though it could also be the case that the Cubs still want to get one notable contract off the books before locking up Baez and expanding his current luxury tax number.

The Cubs have initiated discussions with star shortstop Javier Baez about a contract extension, per Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times (via Twitter). The course of these early-offseason negotiations could play a role in shaping the remainder of the organization’s winter roster efforts, Wittenmyer adds.

It isn’t surprising to learn that Baez is a target for a long-term deal. His play on the field made that a more or less foregone conclusion. But the timing is interesting, less so because of Baez himself than because of the potential ramifications. It isn’t as if teams never explore deals at this time of year, though it’s more common to see extensions negotiated in earnest during Spring Training.

Cubs GM Jed Hoyer said recently that the team “had a stable core for five years” but is “going to have change” this winter. (Via Jon Heyman of MLB Network, on Twitter.) That obviously didn’t mean that the Chicago org was planning to blow things up, but it certainly suggests that a few roster fixtures could potentially be dangled in trade.

It doesn’t require much in the way of reading between the lines to see that the Baez talks could potentially be rather important. Getting something done with the flashy performer might make it easier for the Cubs to swing a blockbuster deal involving other key assets. Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras, and Kyle Schwarber are among the notable names that have been kicked around as speculative possibilities, though it’s unclear which if any will be seriously dangled in trade talks — let alone just what it’d take for the Cubs to part with one or more such players.

As for Baez, he projects to earn a $9.3MM salary in his second-to-last season of arbitration eligibility. He played last year for $5.2MM, a salary that fell well shy of his projected value. Regardless, Baez has already secured significant earnings so won’t be desperate to make a deal. And he’s close enough to free agency that he will have solid leverage to bring into talks. Soon to turn 27, Baez has a good number of youthful seasons still on offer.

Talks between the Cubs and Baez’s reps at Wasserman will surely be interesting. Baez is a tough player to value in some respects, if only because he succeeds against the grain of today’s game. Baez walked just 5.0% of the time last year while turning in a 27.8% strikeout rate, but (as usual) logged a monster .345 BABIP that allowed him to carry a .281/.316/.531 batting line (114 wRC+). With glovework and baserunning included, it was a 4.4 fWAR/4.8 rWAR campaign.

The Cubs obviously believe Baez can continue to convert on his elite bat speed and other physical tools. But they’ll surely also point out some of the demerits in his game in talking about a new contract. And it’s possible the team will want to avoid taking a deal too deep into Baez’s thirties. It’ll be interesting to see what the sides settle at if they’re able to agree to terms. But it could be even more interesting to see what happens to the Cubs’ winter plans if they fail to gain traction in talks to lock down Baez for the long haul.

The Cubs announced today that Cubs shortstop Javier Baez likely won’t be able to return to the field of play this month, with ESPN.com’s Jesse Rogers among those covering the news on Twitter. He’s planning to rehab his hairline thumb fracture in hopes of being ready for some or all of the postseason.

The news is obviously disappointing, if not unexpected given recent developments. That said, it’s promising that the examination by a specialist did not result in the identification of any damage to thumb ligaments.

Going without Baez undoubtedly hurts the Cubs, who are still trying to chase down the Cardinals in the NL Central while holding off challengers for the final Wild Card spot. With Addison Russell also sidelined, the club was forced to dip into its minor-league system and call up top prospect Nico Hoerner today.

While Baez won’t be able to help the Cubs make it into the postseason, it seems there’s still hope he’ll return to action if they do qualify. His progress, therefore, remains of keen interest even though it doesn’t seem there’s any cause for long-term worry.

An MRI today revealed that Cubs shortstop Javier Baez has a hairline fracture in his left thumb, per Jesse Rogers of ESPN. He’ll visit a specialist on Monday for further evaluation. Though the Cubs have yet to release a timeline for his return, it’s possible that this could mean the end of the season for the star infielder.

Baez has missed the last four games after suffering the injury while sliding into second base on September 1. Initial X-rays came back negative and Baez sought to return to the lineup on Thursday, but the persistence of discomfort during batting practice forced him to sit out as the team scheduled a follow-up MRI. Saturday night’s matchup with the Brewers will mark the fifth consecutive game without Baez in the lineup.

Though any injury this late in the season spells trouble for a playoff-hopeful club, this feels especially devastating for the Cubs. Baez has rightfully garnered a reputation as the lifeblood of the Cubs, not only as a mainstay in the middle of the batting order, but as one of the finest defensive infielders in baseball. By Baseball-Reference’s measure of WAR, he has been the most valuable Cub this season, a repeat of last year’s breakout.

Without Baez, Addison Russell is next in line to man the shortstop position. While his defensive talent at the position rivals that of Baez, it’s undebatable that his offensive production leaves much to be desired. If the Cubs, who find themselves in the heat of a contested playoff race, are to overtake the first-place Cardinals, Russell and the rest of the Cubs will need to pick up the slack. If indeed Baez is forced to miss the remainder of the season, it’s an injury that could have a significant impact on the National League Wild-Card chase.

This season, Baez has slashed .281/.316/.532 and has slugged 29 home runs, doubling down on the power surge that carried him to a second-place MVP finish a year ago. On defense, he’s tallied 15 DRS and earned a 9.6 Ultimate Zone Rating, both of which place him among the three best defensive shortstops in baseball.