Stark On Rollins, Fielder, Pujols, Olivo, Tigers
A number of iconic players are in contract years, so ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark looks ahead to their free agent stock and provides other rumors from around the league. Here are the details:
- No one Stark spoke with predicts David Ortiz will leave the Red Sox for another team.
- Jose Reyes will be the number two free agent on the market this winter behind only Albert Pujols, according to one executive.
- Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. acknowledges that it wouldn't be easy to replace Jimmy Rollins, even though the shortstop is no longer an MVP-caliber player. The Phillies ‘poked around’ for possible alternatives at short last offseason, according to Stark, who predicts a two-year deal for Rollins and the Phils this winter.
- Prince Fielder will no doubt sign a lucrative free agent deal, but one executive says the first baseman’s body will be an issue: "It has been since high school, and it always will be." Fielder is 27 now, so an eight-year deal would expire after his age-35 season.
- Pujols will test the market, but Stark and his sources find it hard to believe that he’d leave St. Louis for any old team. One executive predicts that the Cubs are the Cardinals’ main threat.
- The Cubs aren’t ready to start selling and haven’t started shopping Carlos Zambrano, despite his recent outburst.
- The Red Sox offered Miguel Olivo a one-year deal before re-signing Jason Varitek last offseason. Olivo eventually signed a two-year deal with the Mariners.
- The Rangers are ‘stepping up’ their search for a right-handed setup man and maintain interest in Nationals reliever Todd Coffey.
- Rival teams say the Tigers are looking for a left-handed reliever. Southpaws Daniel Schlereth, David Purcey, Charlie Furbush and Adam Wilk are currently in Detroit’s bullpen.
Rosenthal’s Full Count Video: Pence, Phillies, Sabathia
Here's the weekly 'Full Count' video from Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com…
- Three different scouts have told Rosenthal that the Phillies have asked the Astros about Hunter Pence. A deal seems unlikely for a number of reasons — Pence's salary (he's owed roughly $5MM more this season), the Phillies' reluctance to move top prospects in a deal, and the fact that Jim Crane wouldn't want to begin his ownership of the Astros by dealing their best player.
- Ruben Amaro tells Rosenthal that Phillies ownership hasn't yet given him direction about what the GM can or can't do at the deadline. Amaro says the Phillies could find some payroll space without having to deal Joe Blanton, which might be impossible anyway given Blanton's struggles, high salary and the fact that Blanton is currently on the DL.
- The Angels are looking to acquire a corner infielder with some pop. Rosenthal suggests Russell Branyan, just released by Arizona, could be signed to share time at first base with Mark Trumbo. Wilson Betemit could be acquired to play third, since the Royals will shop Betemit to clear space for Mike Moustakas.
- Ian Stewart is another possible target for the Halos, but the Rockies aren't likely to deal him since they don't have any other answers at third base. The Rockies are also "relucant to sell low" on the struggling Stewart; Rosenthal says the Pirates recently asked about Stewart but were "simply bottom-feeding" rather than making a serious offer.
- The Dodgers were one of C.C. Sabathia's "top choices" when he was a free agent after the 2008 season, and he would "love to have the Dodgers as leverage" when he (as expected) opts out of his contract with the Yankees this winter. As Rosenthal says, impending free agents hope the Dodgers solve their ownership problems quickly so the team can resume its status as a big-market destination.
- Jose Reyes "is going to make a killing" in free agency this winter and Jimmy Rollins should also do well given the lack of quality shortstops around the league, Rosenthal predicts. The Brewers, Mets, Dodgers, Giants and Athletics are just a few of the teams that could be in the market for a shortstop in the offseason. The Giants and A's may be a particular fit for Rollins, an Oakland native.
- The Phillies, of course, could re-sign Rollins themselves. Rosenthal notes it would be difficult for the Phils to part with their long-time shortstop, particularly if the club makes another deep postseason run.
Free Agent Stock Watch: April 2011 Edition
We're just four weeks into the season, so prospective free agents still have lots of time to establish their value before hitting the open market. Cliff Lee, who went on to become last offseason's most highly coveted free agent, had made just one start at this point last year. Adrian Beltre also started slowly; he was homerless with a .772 OPS last April before heating up and re-establishing his free agent value.
Other free agents used April as a springboard for standout walk years. Carl Crawford (.941 OPS, 7 steals) and Jayson Werth (.987 OPS) used the first month of the season to establish themselves as top free agents in 2010. With that in mind, here's a look at what ten members of this year's free agent class have done over the course of the first four weeks of the season:
- Albert Pujols - It took him a few games to heat up, but Pujols has 7 homers, 18 RBI and a .258/.321/.485 line. It's nothing special, but he has been unlucky on balls in play and has hit like his usual self since the middle of the month.
- C.C. Sabathia - Sabathia can opt out of the four years and $92MM remaining on his contract after the season and the way he's pitching, he may be able to obtain more guaranteed money that way. Sabathia is putting together another phenomenal season, with a 2.25 ERA, 8.1 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9.
- Prince Fielder - Fielder leads the NL with 23 RBI and has a .326/.415/.565 line. Agent Scott Boras figures to be asking for Mark Teixeira money ($180MM) and then some this offseason.
- Jose Reyes - Reyes has a robust .321/.359/.459 line with 8 stolen bases and 11 extra base hits. If he keeps this up, could ask for $100MM-plus this winter.
- Jimmy Rollins - Rollins, 32, has a .271/.346/.354 line so far this season. He's getting on base at a respectable clip, but he has never had a season with a slugging percentage this low. It seems unlikely that Rollins will have another 30 homer season, as his slugging percentage and isolated power have been in decline since 2007.
- C.J. Wilson - Wilson's 3-0 record and 3.51 ERA look good and he's striking our nearly a batter per inning (8.4 K/9). He has a career-best walk rate so far (2.4 BB/9) after struggling with walks for years.
- Carlos Beltran - With 3 homers and a .280/.359/.488 line, the 34-year-old Beltran is off to a strong start. Seemingly healthy after two injury-plagued seasons, he is now playing right field (though agent Scott Boras insists he can still handle center).
- Mark Buehrle - Buehrle, 32, has a 5.12 ERA, but his peripheral stats suggest that his ERA should fall closer to his 3.87 career mark. Buehrle, who averaged 33 starts per year over the course of the last decade, leads the league with six starts in 2011.
- Jonathan Papelbon - Elite relief pitching is arguably the biggest strength of the upcoming free agent class, so it remains to be seen whether Papelbon will have much leverage this winter. He's off to an excellent start, with 5 saves, a 1.93 ERA, 11.6 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9.
- Heath Bell - Bell would like to stay in San Diego, but the Padres may not be able to afford him. If he keeps pitching like this – 0.90 ERA, 5 saves, 6.3 K/9, 1.8 BB/9 – someone else will be happy to pay for his services. His strikeout rate has dipped, but it's early.
Note that I haven't included Robinson Cano, Brandon Phillips, Grady Sizemore, Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter and others whose teams could exercise options for 2012.
NL East Notes: Chipper, Werth, Rollins
The Mets made a minor trade and the Marlins are finalizing their roster. Here's the latest from the other NL East teams…
- The Braves are looking to upgrade their bench with another right-handed bat, according to ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick (on Twitter). The Braves have been on the lookout for such a player throughout the month of March.
- In a wide-ranging Q&A with David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Chipper Jones says the hardest part of getting older is that something hurts every day. But fret not, Braves fans – Chipper's knee has been pain-free for three weeks.
- As Tyler Kepner of the New York Times explains, a visit with a wrist surgeon changed the course of Jayson Werth's career a little more than four years ago. The Nationals lured Werth to Washington this offseason, signing him to a $126MM deal.
- Phillies shortstop Jimmy Rollins tells Bob Brookover of the Philadelphia Inquirer that he has six or seven more years of baseball left. The 32-year-old hits free agency after the season.
Jimmy Rollins Talks Free Agency
Jimmy Rollins chatted recently with Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports about his impending free agency. The 32-year-old shortstop seems at ease entering the first contract year of his career:
"If I do what I’m supposed to do and I’m healthy, I’ll get signed somewhere, if not here. I’m not worried about that part. Just having a healthy season and feeling good, that’s the only thing I’m concerned with."
The Phillies are the only team Rollins has ever known, but it's too early to determine the extent of the gap between his asking price and the commitment the Phillies are willing and able to make. As Rosenthal points out, the Phillies don't have a replacement ready at the top levels of the minors.
Despite Rollins' slipping on-base percentage, his 10.2% walk rate last year was a career-best. He still has good pop for a shortstop, and his defense remains well-regarded. If Rollins stays healthy and his batting average bounces back, he could be in line for a four or five-year deal worth upwards of $15MM a year. The 2012 free agent market potentially features at least four other starting shortstops: Jose Reyes, Rafael Furcal, Alex Gonzalez, and J.J. Hardy. That crop is better than usual, but it's still very difficult to find a quality shortstop.
Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Uggla, Rollins, Giants, Upton
On this date 20 years ago, a 26-year-old Barry Bonds took home his first National League MVP Award thanks to a .301/.406/.565 season with the Pirates. He went on to win the award again in 1992, his final season in Pittsburgh, and then five more times with the Giants. The latter part of Bonds' career was clouded by PED allegations, but he did hit .301/.424/.566 in his final three seasons with the Pirates and .305/.438/.600 with far more unintentional walks (825) than strikeouts (685) from 1990-1998, age 26-34. Barry could have retired at that point and waltzed into the Hall of Fame on the first ballot.
Here's a look at the best the baseball blogosphere had to offer this week…
- We Should Be GMs celebrates Omar Vizquel, the last remaining active player from the 1980's.
- Capitol Avenue Club wonders what's next for the Braves following the Dan Uggla trade.
- Pittsburgh Lumber Co. contemplates Jorge de la Rosa.
- Meanwhile, Pine Tar And Pocket Protectors pieces together Pittsburgh's 2011 rotation.
- Baseball Analysts looks at Japanese pitchers and the hot stove.
- Crashburn Alley says that right now is a prime opportunity for the Phillies to sign Jimmy Rollins to a contract extension.
- Fenway Faithful Reports thinks that Victor Martinez is destined to sign with the Tigers.
- Splashing Pumpkins breaks down some shortstop options for the Giants.
- Baseball Time In Arlington explains the regression that the Rangers could experience.
- FanSpeak believes the Nationals should go all-in to acquire Justin Upton.
- Boston Sports Pulse provides a blueprint for the Red Sox offseason.
- Phoul Ballz looks at Matt Rizzotti, a Phillies' farmhand that will be eligible for this year's Rule 5 Draft.
- The Sports Banter finds some interesting minor league free agents.
- Cubs Billy Goat Blog lists some minor moves that could have a big impact on the Cubs.
- SPANdemonium muses about why teams have to wait a year before trading drafted players.
If you have a suggestion for this feature, Mike can be reached here.
Amaro Talks Phillies Offseason
Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. talked about the Phillies' offseason at a news conference today, and David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News and Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer have quotes.
- Amaro said he wants Jayson Werth back and the Phillies can afford him, but he expects talks to go deep into the offseason. He'll make contact with Scott Boras over the next 48 hours. Despite the prolonged timeframe, Amaro seems to want to address the Werth situation first: "We're not going to feel comfortable on anything until we know where we stand on Werth and go from there." Werth, for his part, said he's "open to anything" but "this is definitely a business."
- Amaro downplayed Werth's season, saying, "Jayson had a good year. It wasn't an extraordinary year. He had a tough time with men in scoring position. It wasn't as productive a year as he had in the past." I wonder if Boras feels the same way.
- Kyle Kendrick's work as the team's fifth starter was described as "a pretty good performance," implying that the 26-year-old will be tendered a contract and the 2011 rotation is settled.
- The Phillies exercised Jimmy Rollins' 2011 option in December of 2009, but his next contract will probably be discussed after the '11 season.
Discussion: Jimmy Rollins’ Next Contract
Much has been written about what the Yankees will do with Derek Jeter‘s pending free agency and how much the Yankee captain will earn even though he’s coming off a down year and may not be able to continue for much longer at the shortstop position. The catch, however, is that nobody expects Jeter to play anywhere but in New York and even if the Yankees overpay him, they can afford it for a franchise icon.
This scenario could replay itself in the 2011-12 offseason, though with more dramatic consequences. Jimmy Rollins will be a free agent after 2011 and while Rollins is almost as beloved in Philadelphia as Jeter is in the Big Apple, Rollins’ sharper decline may give the Phillies a tough choice to make next winter.
Rollins is coming off an injury-plagued 2010 campaign that saw him only hit .243/.320/.374 in 394 plate appearances. While this season could be explained by his calf and hamstring problems, Rollins wasn’t much more effective in 2009 (.250/.296/.423) when he led the majors with 725 PAs. Perhaps as a vote of confidence, the Phils picked up Rollins’ $8.5MM option for 2011 following that disappointing 2009 season, but the club have to be having second thoughts about that move given how Rollins played this season. One bright side: Rollins had a 12.3 UZR/150 rating in 2010, the second-best mark of his career.
Back in April, in the wake of Ryan Howard‘s massive extension, MLBTR’s Luke Adams looked at how Rollins’ future in Philadelphia might be impacted by Howard’s deal. Adams concluded that the Phillies would probably extend Rollins, but “If Rollins does receive a multi-year, big-money extension though, the Phillies’ financial flexibility will take yet another hit.” MLBTR’s Howard Megdal agreed, painting a rather dire picture of Philadelphia’s payroll in 2012 and beyond.
Looking at the situation now, Raul Ibanez and Brad Lidge‘s contracts almost surely be off the books after 2011; Ibanez is a free agent, Lidge has a $1.5MM buyout option. Jayson Werth is at best a 50-50 proposition to be re-signed, since the Phillies have Domonic Brown waiting in the wings.
Added to the equation, however, is Roy Oswalt‘s $16MM team option for 2012. Though Oswalt will turn 35 in 2012, the right-hander has showed no signs of slowing down. Given the choice between having Oswalt or a 33-year-old shortstop with a sub-.700 OPS, I think both the Phillies and their fans would prefer to see Oswalt back in the fold over Rollins if a choice had to be made. Philadelphia isn’t a small market by any means, but they certainly don’t have a Yankee-esque payroll that allows them to throw big money at everyone.
That said, Rollins’ decline in production could actually increase his chances of retiring as a Phillie if it lowers his asking price. Rather than a big-money contract, Rollins and the team could agree to an incentive-filled deal that stretches over three seasons and pays him around $9MM a year in guaranteed money. It gives the Phillies some flexibility, Rollins the chance to still earn extra cash if he reaches his incentives and both sides a PR win — the club for doing right by a Phillie hero and Rollins for not seeking an unrealistically big contract if he continues to decline.
Is $9MM a season still too much for a shortstop that had a lower OPS than Ian Desmond, Marco Scutaro or (by 16 points) even Derek Jeter this season? Probably, but as Yankees fans can tell you, there’s something to be said for overpaying a home-grown, World Series-winning star.
Odds & Ends: Rollins, Nady, La Russa, Konerko
Links for Wednesday night, as Kyle Drabek takes a loss in his first major league start….
- MLB.com's Todd Zolecki reminds us that Jimmy Rollins earned ten-and-five rights last week.
- Xavier Nady isn't sure whether he'll be back in Chicago next year, but he loves the organization and the fans, according to Carrie Muskat of MLB.com.
- One person who definitely won't be wearing a Cubs uniform in 2011? Tony La Russa. The Cardinals' skipper ruled out the possibility of managing the Cubs next season, writes Matthew Leach of MLB.com.
- Paul Konerko "deserves to be back here and paid the right way" next year, Gordon Beckham tells MLB.com's Scott Merkin.
Dan Lozano Leaves Beverly Hills Sports Council
TUESDAY, June 1st: Crasnick reports that Lozano officially announced his departure from Beverly Hills Sports Council. Lozano will still represent all of his clients, including Pujols, Rollins, Young, Cabrera, Joey Votto, Dallas Braden and J.C. Romero. Agent Dan Horwits is not leaving BHSC (Twitter links).
THURSDAY, May 27th: Crasnick hears that Lozano is taking several employees with him. Partner Dan Horwits, who represents Kurt Suzuki, Mike Leake and Kevin Gregg, may also leave Beverly Hills Sports Council (Twitter links).
WEDNESDAY, May 26th: Agent Dan Lozano has left the Beverly Hills Sports Council, reports ESPN's Jerry Crasnick. SI's Jon Heyman tweets that Lozano will take at least three big clients with him in his solo venture: Albert Pujols, Jimmy Rollins, and Michael Young. Felipe Lopez, Russell Branyan, and Orlando Cabrera have also been reported as clients of Lozano in recent years, but it's not known whether he retained them.
By our count BHSC had the seventh-biggest offseason, brokering $132.92MM worth of contracts. Their business takes a hit with the loss of Pujols, who is likely headed for a contract in excess of $200MM. They've still got Mark Reynolds, Tommy Hanson, Brad Hawpe, Aaron Hill, Tim Lincecum, Ryan Ludwick, Hunter Pence, Ryan Theriot, Dan Uggla, Jayson Werth, and Brian Wilson, among others.