Astros Acquire Yusei Kikuchi
The Astros are paying up to get one of the top pitchers on the market. Houston and Toronto announced a trade sending Yusei Kikuchi to the Astros for rookie righty Jake Bloss, outfielder/first baseman Joey Loperfido and minor league infielder Will Wagner. Toronto already had ample 40-man roster space to accommodate the move.
Kikuchi is behind Jack Flaherty as arguably the second-best rental starter on the market. Houston was tied to Flaherty as well as more controllable pitchers like Jameson Taillon, Erick Fedde and Zach Eflin last week. There was never much doubt that the Astros would bring in a starter, as general manager Dana Brown hasn’t been shy about the team’s need for a mid-rotation arm. The asking price on Flaherty always seemed like it might be beyond Houston’s comfort zone, making Kikuchi a sensible fallback.
The 33-year-old Kikuchi has had mixed results this season and throughout his career more broadly. Over 115 2/3 innings this year, he carries a 4.75 ERA that’s right in line with his 4.72 mark in parts of six MLB campaigns. Kikuchi’s strikeout and walk profile is quite a bit more impressive than that run prevention figure suggests. He has punched out 26.2% of opposing hitters while walking only 6% of batters faced. Among pitchers with 100+ innings, Kikuchi ranks 19th in strikeout percentage and 16th in strikeout/walk rate differential. He’s getting swinging strikes at a 12.4% rate that places him among the top 30 in that group.
A .340 average on balls in play and modest 70.6% left on base rate have nevertheless pushed his ERA close to 5.00. Those marks were nearer to league average in 2023, when the Japanese southpaw turned in a 3.86 ERA over 32 starts with similar strikeout and walk rates as he’s posted this season. Houston is betting on positive regression in those sequencing and batted ball results.
Teams have long been intrigued by Kikuchi, who boasts some of the best raw stuff of any left-hander in baseball. His fastball sits north of 95 MPH and he has the ability to miss bats with all four of his offerings (four-seam, curveball, slider, changeup). Kikuchi has had a difficult time keeping the ball in the park throughout his MLB career, though. He’s allowing homers at an elevated 1.32 clip per nine this season and has given up more longballs than the average pitcher in every full season of his major league tenure. Right-handed batters have generally given him trouble, though he’s holding them a more manageable .280/.323/.441 slash in 409 plate appearances this year.
While Kikuchi isn’t without flaws, he’s a plug-and-play option for the middle of a Houston rotation that certainly needed one. The Astros have been hit hard by starting pitching injuries all year. They lost Cristian Javier and José Urquidy to Tommy John surgery. Depth starter J.P. France went down with a season-ending shoulder issue. Justin Verlander has had two injured list stints and has been shelved since the middle of June because of neck soreness. Lance McCullers Jr. has hit continued snags in his effort to return from a flexor tendon surgery. They had to slow down Luis Garcia in his work back from Tommy John surgery, though he’s again throwing bullpen sessions after being pulled off a minor league rehab stint earlier this month.
Framber Valdez is leading the rotation and has a 3.43 ERA over 18 starts. Hunter Brown has bounced back from a disastrous April and pitched like a top-of-the-rotation arm for the last three months. Ronel Blanco has been a godsend after injuries pushed him into the fifth starter role out of camp. He carries a 2.95 ERA across 119 frames.
While that’s a decent top three, the depth is questionable. Spencer Arrighetti has a 5.58 ERA over his first 19 MLB starts. Houston had pushed Bloss to the majors within a year of drafting him, largely reflecting their lack of alternatives in the upper minors. The Astros are hoping to get Verlander and Garcia (and potentially McCullers) back at some point, but they’ve also pushed Blanco to new workload heights. The 30-year-old righty had never thrown more than 88 innings in a major or minor league campaign before this year. He’s already 31 innings beyond that.
Kikuchi, who hasn’t missed a start in two years, has provided the kind of durability that the Astros have generally lacked. There’s injury risk with any pitcher, of course, but the Astros are no doubt thrilled to land a pitcher who is tied for fifth in MLB in starts going back to last year’s Opening Day.
Doing so comes at a cost. Bloss is arguably the top pitching prospect in a fairly thin Houston farm system. A third-round pick out of Georgetown last summer, the 6’3″ righty quickly pitched his way towards the top of the prospect pipeline. Baseball America recently ranked him the #2 prospect in the organization, while he’s in the overall Top 100 (and second in the organization) at FanGraphs.
BA suggests he’s likely to fit at the back of a rotation, while FanGraphs credits him with mid-rotation potential. Both outlets write that his mid-90s fastball plays especially well at the top of the strike zone because of its backspin and Bloss’ deceptively low release height. He has a pair of solid breaking pitches, while his changeup is a work in progress.
Opponents have hit him hard over his three big league starts. He has given up nine runs on 16 hits (including five homers) over 11 2/3 innings. Were it not for Houston’s injury woes, he probably wouldn’t have made his MLB debut yet. Bloss has pitched very well in the minors this season, working to a 1.64 ERA with a 25.6% strikeout rate across 66 innings. Yet he’d made all of eight starts at Double-A and one Triple-A appearance before being pushed to the big leagues out of necessity. A more typical development path would probably still have him at Double-A right now.
Bloss has all three options remaining. The 23-year-old is under control for at least six seasons beyond this one and could stick around even longer if the Jays send him to the minors for further development. Bloss could factor into next year’s rotation as the Jays try to quickly return to contention, maybe slotting into the rotation spot vacated by Kikuchi’s departure.
Getting Bloss alone would’ve been a strong return for a half-season of Kikuchi’s services. Loperfido, 25, ranked as Houston’s #5 prospect on BA’s latest update. A seventh-round selection out of Duke in 2021, he hit his way to the big leagues earlier this year. Loperfido combined for a .278/.370/.510 slash between three minor league levels last season. He was obliterating Triple-A pitching early this season and owns a .272/.365/.568 mark with 13 homers over 39 games in the Pacific Coast League this year.
Of course, the PCL is an extremely favorable environment for hitters. BA’s scouting report credits Loperfido with above-average but not elite power. He was striking out an elevated 28% clip against Triple-A pitching. The whiffs have carried over in his first look at MLB arms. Loperfido has fanned in 36.4% of his 118 MLB plate appearances to date. He’s hitting .236/.299/.358 in 38 games.
Loperfido isn’t a great athlete or defensive player. He was drafted as a second baseman but he’s moved off the position entirely this year. Houston has divided his time between the outfield and first base in Triple-A. They haven’t given him any major league starts at first base, which is a bit of a surprise considering the mediocre production they’ve gotten out of the position from Jon Singleton and the since-released José Abreu.
Wagner is the third piece in the deal, but he’s a prospect in his own right. The son of seven-time All-Star Billy Wagner, Will ranks 19th in the Houston system at Baseball America. A former 18th-round pick out of Liberty, Wagner has outperformed his draft stock and is posting huge numbers in Triple-A. He’s hitting .307/.424/.429 with a massive 16.2% walk percentage against a tiny 10.2% strikeout rate across 324 plate appearances.
The left-handed hitting Wagner is old for the level — today is his 26th birthday — but he has little more to prove in the minors. He has divided his time between first, second and third base this year. He’d be eligible for the Rule 5 draft this winter if not selected onto the 40-man roster but could get a look in Toronto before the end of this season.
That’s three controllable players at or near the MLB level. The Astros were fine giving them up while they’re in a tight battle with the Mariners and Rangers for the AL West crown. Beyond the prospects, they’re adding salary to what is already a franchise-high payroll. The Astros had a competitive balance tax estimate around $256MM before the deal (as calculated by RosterResource). Unless there are cash considerations involved, they’ll take on roughly $3.33MM remaining on Kikuchi’s $10MM salary. That pushes them beyond the $257MM threshold that marks the second tier of luxury penalization. They’re taxed at a 32% rate on spending up to $277MM, so they’ll take on roughly $1MM in taxes on top of the money they owe Kikuchi.
Toronto sheds some money from its tax ledger — more than the Astros are taking on. Kikuchi’s three-year, $36MM free agent deal was frontloaded to pay him $16MM in the first season. Toronto’s competitive balance tax hit was nevertheless the contract’s $12MM average annual value, so Kikuchi had a higher CBT hit than actual salary this year.
When a player on a guaranteed contract is traded, the CBT ledger is recalculated based on the salary remaining at the time of the trade. The Astros assume the prorated amount of a $10MM salary while the Jays drop the prorated portion of the $12MM for which Kikuchi had counted against their books — approximately $4MM. That could aid them in trying to slip below the $237MM base threshold this year. Their exact CBT number is pending the reporting of the amount of cash they included in the Justin Turner trade with Seattle this afternoon.
The Athletic’s Jim Bowden first reported the Astros were nearing a deal for Kikuchi that would send Bloss to Toronto. ESPN’s Jeff Passan confirmed a Kikuchi trade was in place. Ken Rosenthal, Kaitlyn McGrath and Chandler Rome of the Athletic reported that the Jays were acquiring two other prospects. Ben Nicholson-Smith and Shi Davidi of Sportsnet first reported Loperfido and Wagner were in the deal.
Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Astros Designate Blair Henley For Assignment
The Astros made a series of roster moves today, including the previously-reported promotion of Jake Bloss. They also recalled outfielder Joey Loperfido, a move that was relayed on X last night by Ari Alexander of KPRC 2. To open active roster spots for those two, catcher Victor Caratini was placed on the 10-day injured list with a left hip flexor strain, retroactive to June 20, and right-hander Luis Contreras was optioned to Triple-A. To open a 40-man spot for Bloss, right-hander Blair Henley was designated for assignment.
Henley, 27, was selected to the club’s roster in April. The Astros were scrambling to fill their rotation at the time due to injuries. Justin Verlander and José Urquidy were each part of the planned Opening Day rotation but both started the season on the injured list. Then Framber Valdez had some elbow soreness pop up, which prompted the club to turn to Henley and give him his major league debut.
Unfortunately, he didn’t get the storybook version of getting to the show. His first and thus far only major league start saw him record just one out while surrendering five earned runs on four hits and three walks. He was optioned back to the minors after that and has been pitching in Triple-A since then.
His numbers for Sugar Land haven’t been especially impressive. In his 13 starts, he has a 4.50 earned run average but might even be lucky to have that. His 19.2% strikeout rate and 13.2% walk rate are both a few points worse than average and he has stranded 76% of baserunners despite allowing ten home runs, which leads to a 6.69 FIP at that level this year.
The Astros will now have one week to trade Henley or pass him through waivers. The results this year haven’t been great but he’s a former seventh-round pick with a full slate of options. Tommy John surgery wiped out most of his 2021-22 seasons before he returned to the mound last year. He logged 106 2/3 innings at Double-A last year with a 5.06 ERA, 22.3% strikeout rate, 11.1% walk rate and 51.2% ground ball rate.
Players with a previous career outright or three years of service time can reject an outright assignment in favor of free agency. Henley doesn’t qualify on either count and would therefore stick with the Astros if he were passed through waivers unclaimed.
Astros Place Cristian Javier On IL, Recall Jose Abreu
The Astros made a few transactions before tonight’s series opener in Seattle. Houston placed starter Cristian Javier on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to May 24, with forearm discomfort. They also recalled José Abreu and reliever Alex Speas from Triple-A Sugar Land, optioning out Joey Loperfido to clear an additional roster spot.
Javier heads to the IL for the second time this season. The right-hander missed a couple weeks between April and May with neck soreness. Forearm discomfort is naturally a more concerning development, but there’s no indication the team believes it to be a serious issue at the moment. It’s nevertheless a frustrating setback for Javier, who has been limited to seven starts this year after avoiding the IL between 2020-23.
Around the injuries, Javier has gotten off to a middling start. He has a reasonable 3.89 ERA over 34 2/3 innings, yet he’s carrying an 18% strikeout rate that would easily be a personal worst. Javier has also walked nearly 13% of opposing hitters and is averaging only 91.7 MPH on his fastball, the softest velocity of his career.
Even a diminished version of Javier has played an important role for a Houston rotation that has battled numerous injuries. He rejoins Lance McCullers Jr., Luis Garcia and José Urquidy on the IL. Urquidy was expected to make his return from forearm discomfort in the coming weeks, but he felt renewed soreness during a rehab start last Friday.
Houston has tried to lean on a six-man rotation to navigate an ongoing stretch of 29 games in 30 days. That hasn’t really worked as planned, as Ronel Blanco served a 10-game foreign substance suspension before Javier’s injury. Houston has a five-man starting staff of Framber Valdez, Justin Verlander, Blanco, Hunter Brown and Spencer Arrighetti at the moment. Recently-signed lefty Eric Lauer is at Sugar Land as an experienced non-roster depth option.
Abreu is back on the MLB roster after spending nearly a month in the minors. The former MVP is in the lineup at first base tonight, hitting eighth against Seattle right-hander Bryce Miller. Abreu has worked to rediscover his timing after hitting .099/.156/.113 over his first 77 big league plate appearances this season. Lefty-swinging Jon Singleton has been Houston’s primary first baseman since Abreu was optioned; Singleton is at designated hitter tonight.
How Abreu performs over the next two months could be a key storyline as the front office considers its deadline approach. Houston has played their way back to the fringe of the playoff picture after an atrocious start to the season. They’re 24-29, sitting in third place in the AL West at three and a half games behind Seattle. If they’re in contention by late July, the Astros would certainly try to bolster a veteran roster that has won at least one playoff round in seven straight seasons. First base would be an obvious target area unless Abreu authors a remarkable turnaround in the coming weeks.
Astros Designate Joel Kuhnel For Assignment
The Astros announced to reporters, including Chandler Rome of The Athletic, that Joey Loperfido has been officially added to the roster. His imminent promotion was reported over the weekend. In corresponding moves, the club placed infielder Grae Kessinger on the 10-day injured list due to right shoulder discomfort and designated right-hander Joel Kuhnel for assignment.
Kuhnel, 29, was acquired from the Reds in a cash deal in June of last year. He was designated for assignment in the offseason and eventually elected free agency, but returned to the Astros on a minor league deal and was selected back to the roster a few weeks ago. He made just one appearance, allowing four earned runs in two innings, before being optioned to Triple-A Sugar Land.
He currently has a 6.30 earned run average in 85 2/3 innings at the major league level. His 19% strikeout rate is below average but his 6.3% walk rate and 52.2% ground ball rate are both quite strong. He’s been in decent form in Triple-A this year, with a 3.18 ERA in 11 1/3 innings, despite pitching in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League.
The Astros will now have a week to trade Kuhnel or try to pass him through waivers. He still has an option and could therefore be kept in the minors by any club willing to give him a 40-man roster spot. If he were to pass through waivers unclaimed, he would have the right to elect free agency as a player with a previous career outright.
Astros To Promote Joey Loperfido
The Astros will call up Joey Loperfido prior to Tuesday’s game against the Guardians, KPRC 2’s Ari Alexander reports (via X). Loperfido isn’t on Houston’s 40-man roster, so the Astros will have to make at least one roster move to find room for the first baseman/outfielder.
Rumors about Loperfido’s promotion have swirled ever since Spring Training, when the young slugger drew attention with an 1.076 OPS over 41 Grapefruit League plate appearances. He kept swinging a hot bat through the start of the Triple-A season, taking a .276/.376/.684 slash line through his first 117 PA of the minor league season. Loperfido has also gone yard 13 times, as he launched his 13th home run of the young season in Triple-A Sugar Land’s 10-5 win today over the Reno Aces.
While such absurd numbers would make any prospect seem like a candidate for their MLB debut, Loperfido’s production has particularly stood out given how little the Astros have received from the first base position. Jose Abreu is hitting .099/.156/.113 over 77 PA this season, translating to an astonishing -21 wRC+. Though Abreu also struggled for much of the 2023 season, his rebound near the end of the year and his good showing in the playoffs led to some hope that the veteran had gotten on track, yet Abreu has limped out of the gates with the worst stretch of his career.
MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently explored Abreu’s situation, noting that Abreu’s contract (roughly $16.25MM remaining this season and $19.5MM in 2025) has certainly made the Astros wary about sitting him down, or even releasing Abreu entirely. If Loperfido isn’t going to entirely supplant Abreu, however, Jon Singleton certainly seems like a potential cut given how Singleton is batting only .238/.319/.286 over 47 PA. Since Singleton and Loperfido are both left-handed hitters, having Loperfido take over as the complementary first option alongside the right-handed hitting Abreu seems like a logical move for Houston. Trey Cabbage was also on the roster as the 27th man for this weekend’s series with the Rockies in Mexico City, but Cabbage is probably more likely to head back to Triple-A.
A seventh-round pick for the Astros in the 2021 draft, Loperfido (who turns 25 in two weeks) didn’t exactly come out of nowhere, as he posted strong numbers in each of his first two minor league seasons. He moved up the ladder quickly enough to make his Triple-A debut in 2023, though his .235/.333/.403 slash line in 138 PA with Sugar Land last year didn’t hint at his eye-popping breakout in store for 2024.
Both MLB Pipeline and Baseball America ranked Loperfido sixth on their preseason lists of Houston’s best prospects, noting his raw power potential but also highlighting his possible contributions as more than just a slugging first baseman. Indeed, Loperfido has spent more time as an outfielder than as a first baseman, with the bulk of his minor league innings coming in center field. Loperfido could therefore find himself getting some at-bats as a left fielder or center fielder in place of Chas McCormick or Jake Meyers — both are right-handed hitters, and McCormick isn’t producing much at the plate. Loperfido also brings some good speed to the table, with 64 steals in 79 attempts during his minor league career.
Loperfido’s 30.8% strikeout rate at Triple-A is certainly cause for concern, plus some grain of salt must always be applied to numbers posted in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. It should also be noted that while Abreu has been a glaring weak spot in the lineup, the Astros are hitting quite well on the whole, as pitching (and injuries within the rotation) has been the much bigger reason behind the team’s unexpectedly slow start. Houston therefore doesn’t need Loperfido to be an immediate star right away, and frankly, the bar has been set so low by Abreu and Singleton that even average production from Loperfido would represent a nice upgrade.