Odds & Ends: Brenly, DeJesus, Lackey, Reds
Some links to peruse before Yovani Gallardo locks up with Tim Lincecum later tonight…
- The Cubs will consider Bob Brenly for their vacant managerial post, according to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times.
- David DeJesus is waiting to hear from the Royals about their decision on his $6MM option for next season according to Bob Dutton of The Kansas City Star. The club has until October 15th to exercise the option, and GM Dayton Moore said he's "not prepared to say what [they're] doing at this point."
- WEEI.com's Alex Speier says that John Lackey hasn't been worth the risk for the Red Sox yet, and he'll have to buck historical trends to be worth the remainder of his five-year, $82.5MM contract.
- Meanwhile, Jim Donaldson of The Providence Journal jokes that the Sox should be able to ask Lackey and Josh Beckett for refunds given how they've pitched after signing their new deals.
- There will be plenty of competition for a spot in the Cubs rotation next season, writes Paul Sullivan of The Chicago Tribune.
- David Barron of The Houston Chronicle looks at how the Reds are thriving thanks to a mix of young players and veterans.
Odds & Ends: Hudson, Mets, Arroyo, Atkins
As major league teams unveil their 2011 schedules, here are some news items….
- As Daniel Hudson improves to 6-1 with a 1.67 ERA as a Diamondback tonight, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel tweets that Hudson "probably" could have been a Brewer had Milwaukee accepted a one-for-one offer from Chicago for Prince Fielder. The problem at the time was that the Brewers projected Hudson as only a third or fourth starter and wanted more for their slugger. Obviously hindsight is 20/20 on any missed trade, but if Hudson continues to pitch well in Arizona, it will put even more pressure on the Brewers to get a big return back if they do end up dealing Fielder.
- An anonymous NL official tells Newsday's Ken Davidoff that Jose Reyes could command "one really good prospect, one solid prospect, and one or two medium-range prospects" in a trade should the Mets put their shortstop on the market this winter. This source seems in favor of a total rebuild for the Mets; he also thinks they should try to deal David Wright and Francisco Rodriguez.
- Hal McCoy of the Dayton Daily News cites Bronson Arroyo's durability, consistent win totals and veteran presence as reasons why Cincinnati should pick up the right-hander's $11MM option for next season.
- We've heard that the Rockies will look for a right-handed first baseman to platoon with Todd Helton next season, and ESPN.com's Jason A. Churchill cites former Rockie Garrett Atkins as a possibility for the role. Atkins was non-tendered by Colorado last winter and after signing a one-year contract with Baltimore, was released by the Orioles last July.
- Interim Arizona GM Jerry Dipoto will interview for the full-time position tomorrow, reports MLB.com's Steve Gilbert (Twitter link).
- Any Boston fans tickled by A.J. Burnett's struggles this season might not want to crow too much, since Fangraphs' Joe Pawlikowski cites Burnett as comparable to the also-struggling John Lackey.
- Charley Walters of the St. Paul Pioneer Press wonders if the Red Sox might pursue Jim Thome as a cheaper free agent DH option rather than pick up David Ortiz's 2011 option.
- Travis Buck's "organizational status is clearly at an all-time low" in Oakland, writes Mychael Urban of CSNBayArea.com. Buck is eligible for arbitration for the first time this winter and could be non-tendered given the number of other promising outfielders in the Athletics' system.
- If Jesus Montero can develop a solid catching glove to go along with his powerful bat, the Mariners may regret passing on New York's Montero-centered offer for Cliff Lee, writes ESPN.com's Buster Olney.
- Blogger El Lefty Malo praises the Giants' acquisition of Cody Ross and some other recent Brian Sabean moves.
- Angels manager Mike Scioscia thinks the Halos just need a "tweaking" rather than an overhaul in the winter, reports Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times.
- Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch says upgrading the infield should be a top priority for the Cardinals in the offseason.
Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Lee, Braves, Mets, Oswalt
On this date 12 years ago, Diamondbacks manager Buck Showalter ordered closer Gregg Olsen to intentionally walk Barry Bonds with the bases loaded and two outs in the bottom of the 9th. Arizona was leading the Giants 8-6 at the time, and the move not only forced in a run, but also put the winning run in scoring position. The next batter, Brent Mayne, flew out to deep center field to end the inning and give the D'Backs the 8-7 win. It was just the third time in history that a batter was intentionally walked with the bases loaded, though the Rays' Joe Maddon turned the same trick with Josh Hamilton in August 2008.
Coincidentally, Bonds hit his 715th career homer to pass Babe Ruth for sole possession of second place on the all-time list on this same date back in 2006. Anyway, here's a collection of links from around the baseball blogiverse…
- Prospect Insider examines the Cliff Lee trade market.
- Capitol Avenue Club lists six players the Braves could select with their first pick, #35 overall, in next month's draft. Atlanta sent their first round pick, #20 overall, to the Red Sox as compensation for signing Billy Wagner.
- Mets Paradise looks at the internal candidates the Mets could turn to if they need to fill another rotation spot.
- Yankeeist reviews some players the Yankees either let go or passed on last offseason, plus some players they could pursue next winter.
- Dodger Dugout tries to figure out what Ned Colletti might be thinking as the trade deadline slowly approaches.
- Meanwhile, The Baseball Opinion speculates about Roy Oswalt landing with the Dodgers.
- The Bottom Line says that John Lackey's curve has been lacking with the Red Sox.
- River Ave. Blues takes a deeper look at some draft prospects the Yankees have been linked to.
If you have a suggestion for this feature, Mike can be reached here.
Odds & Ends: Lackey, Stanton, Blue Jays, Vazquez
Links for Monday, as Johnny Damon enjoys a little revenge against his former team…
- Mark Teixeira encouraged John Lackey to sign with the Yankees last winter, according to Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald.
- Marlins prospect Mike Stanton will likely remain in Double A until late May or early June, an MLB source tells MLB.com's Joe Frisaro. That will prevent the young power hitter from gaining Super Two status and an extra year of arbitration. The team would consider promoting Stanton to the majors from Double A at that point if he continues hitting well. Stanton has 15 homers already.
- The Brewers signed shortstop Justin Parker, according to MLB.com's Adam McCalvy (via Twitter). The 23-year-old has a .237/.334/.344 line in 584 plate appearances in the low minors of the D'Backs organization.
- In a recent radio hit with The Big Show, Peter Gammons noted that the Red Sox tried to acquire Javier Vazquez during the offseason. Talking to Yankees GM Brian Cashman, Murray Chass learned that the Sox also had interest in Curtis Granderson.
- Kevin Gregg told Dave van Dyck of the Chicago Tribune he was open for anything regarding a return to the Cubs, but they said no.
- Switching to the future tense, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports names ten players who could hit the trading block – including Victor Martinez, Cliff Lee, Paul Konerko, and Ted Lilly.
- Baseball America's Jim Callis ranks all draft prospects from the last 20 years, based on how they were perceived before their drafts.
Are Lackey, Bay Cause For Worry?
Leave it to some who follow the Red Sox and Mets to worry prematurely about their big acquisitions, John Lackey and Jason Bay.
In the case of Lackey, he probably quieted some of the criticism with his seven innings against the Angels Wednesday night, allowing just one run. Meanwhile, Bay's struggles haven't yet abated. Should either fan base be worried? Did the Red Sox waste $82.5MM on Lackey, and the Mets blow $66MM on Bay? There's certainly not enough evidence to think so, and the guess here is that in the short-term, neither team will be sorry.
Let's start with Lackey. In his first 37 innings, he's pitched to a decent 3.89 ERA, and really, that reflects one poor start. Take that start out, and he has five quality starts in five outings, with a 2.14 ERA. He's gone seven innings in each of his last three starts. The only thing that could cause concern is that he's struck out just 21 in those 37 innings. That is a rate of just 5.1 per nine innings, well off of his pace from last season, when he fanned 7.1 per nine. But take a look at Lackey's first six starts from 2009. He posted a 6.61 ERA, and even his strikeout rate was just 5.2 per nine. It then jumped to a robust 7.5 per nine over his final 21 starts, along with a 3.23 ERA in those contests.
So it is entirely too soon to worry about Lackey. But what about Bay?
The numbers have been pretty ugly so far. Bay is hitting just .238/.345/.376 in his first 119 plate appearances as a Met. And it isn't like he's been particularly hit-unlucky, with a .338 batting average on balls in play in 2010, above his career BABIP of .327. He's walking and striking out about as much as he did in 2009, and is actually hitting more line drives this year than last year. So is it simply that Bay lost all of his power? Unlikely. It simply appears this streaky hitter is in a slump.
It went less noticed last year because of his strong start, but Bay had a remarkably similar period in his 2009 season. From June 3 to July 31, 2009, Bay hit .214/.349/.341, with just four home runs in 212 plate appearances over that time. However, he balanced that out with 222 plate appearances from the start of the season to June 2 hitting .286/.410/.632, and finished the season from August 1 on with 204 plate appearances of .301/.392/.631 hitting.
Most likely, Mets fans will feel awfully silly about Bay fretting once he goes on this type of extended tear. And fortunately for the Mets, the concerns about his defense have largely proven to be unfounded so far, with Bay hovering right around average in left field.
In short, there are things for both the Red Sox and Mets to worry about. But John Lackey and Jason Bay aren't it.
Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Rays, Lackey, Peavy, Cano
On this date 11 years ago, Hideki Irabu of the Yankees and Mac Suzuki of the Mariners faced off in the first match up of Japanese starting pitchers in Major League history. Irabu allowed one run over seven innings as the Yanks defeated Seattle by the score of 10-1.
Here are some links from around the baseball blogosphere…
- Rays Index tries to figure out which starting pitcher Tampa Bay will trade after the season.
- At Home Plate thinks John Lackey was off-base with his recent comments about the Angels.
- The Friarhood wonders if the Padres can already be declared the winner of the Jake Peavy trade.
- Nick's Twins Blog says that trading Wilson Ramos is a no-brainer.
- More Hardball looks at some players who are performing well in the big leagues after signing minor league deals this offseason.
- Yankeeist revisits the old Robinson Cano for Matt Kemp trade rumor.
- Mets Paradise wonders how long Frank Catalanotto and Fernando Tatis will keep their jobs.
If you have a suggestion for this feature, Mike can be reached here.
Odds & Ends: Crawford, Raynor, Lackey, Strasburg
Links for Tuesday, as Tim Lincecum reclaims the MLB strikeout lead…
- Marc Topkin of The St. Petersburg Times spoke to Crawford, who said he was misquoted in the upcoming Sports Illustrated piece mentioned below. "Nothing's changed, no decisions," he said. "I don't know what Carlos [Pena] is doing.''
- Pirates' GM Neil Huntington told Chuck Finder of The Pittsburgh Post Gazette that he tried to made a deal with the Marlins that would allow Rule 5 pick John Raynor to remain with the Pirates, but to no avail. Raynor was returned to Florida today.
- John Lackey said he wasn't surprised when the Angels let him depart as a free agent given their trade record with letting home grown players leave, according to Mark Saxon of ESPN Los Angeles. "It's different," said Lackey. "The way they preach the team game and giving it up for the team. That's a little suspect. You're supposed to give it up for the team. When the time comes, they might not want to give it up for you. But I totally knew that was a possibility. I was prepared for that. That's the nature of the game today."
- Stephen Strasburg has been promoted and will make his Triple A debut Friday against Freddie Freeman and the Gwinnett Braves, reports MLB.com's Bill Ladson. ESPN's Rob Neyer notes that Strasburg seems to be on the Mark Prior path to the bigs, perhaps delayed a few weeks for cost savings.
- MASN's Ben Goessling says Nats 2006 first-round pick Colton Willems has decided to retire. The team has the pitcher on the restricted list in case he changes his mind.
- An upcoming Sports lllustrated piece on Carlos Pena features this quote from Carl Crawford: "This core group is going to still be together, me and Carlos are the only two guys that are going to be leaving."
- The Royals granted reliever Roman Colon his release so he can sign with the Kia Tigers of Korea, according to the team. Just three months ago, Colon and Juan Cruz were in the mix to be Joakim Soria's primary setup man. The Royals' bullpen sports an AL-worst 5.56 ERA in 81 innings.
- White Sox GM Kenny Williams wouldn't rule out a fire sale at a later date, but said the team's aggressive nature will probably prevent it (Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun-Times reporting).
- ESPN's Buster Olney explains that his Saturday story about Cliff Lee being likely to reach free agency was prompted by a call Olney made to Lee's agent.
- Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets that the Blue Jays attempted to sign Kelly Johnson to play left field during the offseason, offering more than the $2.35MM Johnson received from Arizona. Johnson told Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic in March that he strongly considered offers from the Blue Jays, Pirates, and Indians.
- Joel Sherman of the New York Post points out that the upon acquiring Javier Vazquez, the Yankees considered two 2011 draft picks part of the deal. Already, Vazquez's Type A status and arbitration offer are in question. We'll be able to give you Vazquez's exact Elias standing later this month, when Eddie Bajek makes his first pass at 2009-10 rankings.
- Dejan Kovacevic's latest article for the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette suggests the Pirates were overly optimistic about Akinori Iwamura, currently their highest-paid player.
- Click here to listen to my radio appearance on KFNS St. Louis from earlier today.
Mets Liked Lackey, Preferred Bay
A major league source tells Rob Bradford of WEEI.com that the Mets thought a five-year offer to John Lackey would be riskier than a four-year offer to Jason Bay. The Mets, who say they are not concerned about Bay's defense, ultimately signed the outfielder to a four-year $66MM deal with a vesting option for a fifth year. They talked to Lackey and had strong interest in him, though they considered Bay the safer choice.
Discussion: Best Move Of The Offseason
With Felipe Lopez finally catching on with the Cardinals, essentially every big name free agent is off the market (no disrespect to Jermaine Dye and Jarrod Washburn). That allows us to sit back and reflect on all of the offseason's moves, and try to figure out which one was the very best.
Here are some candidates…
- Mets sign Jason Bay to a four-year, $66MM contract.
- Yankees acquire Curtis Granderson for three prospects.
- Phillies acquire Roy Halladay for three prospects.
- Red Sox sign John Lackey to a five-year, $82.5MM contract.
- Mariners acquire Cliff Lee for three prospects.
- Rays acquire Rafael Soriano for Jesse Chavez.
There's certainly no shortage of candidates, but one has to be the best of the best, right? What do you think it is?
Epstein Discusses Lowell, Beckett, Offense
Red Sox GM Theo Epstein did an informative interview on the Dennis & Callahan show this morning. Click here for audio and here for the transcript. Highlights:
- Epstein said that by the time the offseason began, the Red Sox evaluated their chances of signing Jason Bay and Matt Holliday at less than ten percent for each.
- Epstein has not expected a Mike Lowell trade since the Texas deal blew up. At the time, the Red Sox GM envisioned using the $3MM savings on a hitter, but now expects Lowell to provide that insurance.
- The team's numbers showed Jacoby Ellsbury as an above-average center fielder in 2009. Epstein implied that he doesn't put any stock in Ellsbury's UZR.
- Epstein considers John Lackey's five-year, $82.5MM contract a relevant comparable for Josh Beckett's next deal. He does not see the Lackey signing as an impediment to retaining Beckett.
- If the offense is subpar, Epstein is willing to make an in-season acquisition. He noted that finding a bat at the trade deadline is easier than acquiring an elite pitcher.