Unfounded Soriano Mets Rumor
Alright, here’s a new one. I can’t really verify the source, but it still seems ripe for discussion.
Word is that the Mets could send Xavier Nady, John Maine, and Jeff Keppinger to the Nationals for Alfonso Soriano, Bill Bray, and Jason Bergmann. Let’s discuss.
Could the Mets do without Nady? Absolutely. Wright doesn’t need much time off, and Franco can spell Delgado. I’m of the opinion that Victor Diaz does not need a platoon partner in right field. Nady would be more useful for Washington. He could handle right field for three months while Jose Guillen is out, and Matt LeCroy could spend more time backing up Brian Schneider than Nick Johnson. Plus, Nady could take over first base in 2007 if Johnson leaves via free agency.
I’m not sure that John Maine figures into the Mets’ rotation plans. He didn’t make their depth chart, which goes eight-deep on starting pitchers. Maine already has Triple A experience and could probably manage a mid-4 ERA pitching half his games in RFK. That’d be a more adequate replacement for Brian Lawrence than some sort of Drese/Rauch experiment.
Jeff Keppinger has most certainly been passed by Anderson Hernandez on the Mets’ 2B depth chart, and so the Mets wouldn’t really need him even if they let Soriano walk after 2006. Keppinger is probably best served as a utility man anyway, and he’d get a decent opportunity backing up Jose Vidro. Brendan Harris might already fill this role for the Nats, but he’s no sure thing.
To recap: the Nationals would receive a borderline backup in Nady, a back-rotation starter in Maine, and a utility infielder in Keppinger. It’s quantity over quality, but Bowden is between a rock and a hard place here with Soriano.
Speaking of which, Soriano would fit nicely into the Latino core Omar Minaya is building. I don’t know whether the Mets would try to keep him long-term, but even a player with his flaws is a good pickup for the cost outlined here.
College product Bill Bray isn’t too far off from being a Major League setup man. I’m not so sure Bowden would need to give him up in this deal. It seems to tip the scales too far towards the Mets.
Likewise with Bergmann, who had a nice year last year and figured to slot into the Nats’ big league bullpen. That’s two valuable relievers going to New York, and it seems like too much.
Admittedly the Nationals are giving up a lot of value for some questionable prospects. On the other hand, Bowden’s trade for Soriano is Exhibit A that he is capable of making trades that do not favor the his team at all.
Maine Offered To A’s For Hudson?
I was all set to point out that Billy Beane has indeed had previous interest in John Maine, but MetsBlog and a lot of message boards beat me to the punch. That’s what I get for taking the afternoon off.
For what it’s worth, I did find this Peter Gammons article from December of 2004 mentioning that Maine was offered by the Orioles for Tim Hudson along with Erik Bedard and Hayden Penn. Man, why didn’t Billy Beane take that offer? That’s 3/5 of a starting rotation right there.
Benson Dealt To Orioles; Zito Implications?
Many of you have already noticed by now that Newsday is reporting that the Mets traded Kris Benson to the Orioles for Jorge Julio and John Maine. A tip of the cap to Orioles Hangout; I’m pretty sure they confirmation first.
The question on most people’s minds is this: is the Benson swap the initial movement indicating a trade of Barry Zito to the Mets? If you recall, my Mets source indicated yesterday that Benson would be traded to Baltimore to acquire a prospect to Billy Beane’s liking. I’ve got word out to a couple of sources to see if anything has changed. In the meantime, let’s see what we can deduce.
First off, would the A’s have use for John Maine? The 24 year-old righty starter was ranked 6th in the Orioles’ organization by Baseball America entering the 2005 season. According to BA back then, Maine needed to refine his command and had a ceiling as a #3 starter. They also mentioned that he was "probably a #4 or 5 guy on a first-division club." Maine pitched kind of like a #4 starter in 128 innings at Triple A Ottawa in ’05. He posted a 4.56 ERA with improved control while maintaining a solid K rate.
I haven’t projected Maine myself yet, but ZiPS thought he’d throw 153 innings of 4.41 ball in his first extended trial with the Orioles. I think that’s great value for the price. For basis of comparison, Maine’s 2005 doesn’t look terribly different from Danny Haren‘s 2004. Haren was certainly better, but it’s a fair comparison. Interestingly, Baseball Prospectus lists these comparables for Maine: Joel Pineiro (2002), A.J. Burnett (2001), Juan Marichal (1961), Bob Gibson (1960), and strangely, Jorge Julio (2003). I know the A’s already have a stable of starters, but Maine probably needs a little more time and a team can never have too much starting pitching depth.
I would speculate that the Mets would hang onto Jorge Julio to serve as Aaron Heilman‘s replacement. While most analysis today indicates that the Benson trade simply means Heilman starts for the Mets, I am skeptical. According to MetsBlog earlier this month:
"The problem is that the only person who seems to see Heilman as a starter is Heilman. Nearly all scouts and experts that I talked with all explained the same thing: Heilman’s repertoire is too hittable during his second time through a lineup."
Should Minaya package up Victor Diaz with someone to acquire a top flight prospect suitable to the A’s, I could really see this Zito deal coming to fruition.