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Jose Bautista

Three Months Later: Bautista’s Extension

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Perhaps no player has exploded from relative obscurity into superstardom like Jose Bautista has over the past year. It's been just under three months since the Blue Jays took a bold step by locking up last year's home run champ for five years and $65MM, but it certainly looks like it's going to pay off.

At the time, MLBTR readers agreed decisively that the contract was too great a risk: 72.42% of the 12,535 polled said they wouldn't have offered Bautista a deal of that magnitude.

Yet here we are three months later, and Bautista has hit his 14th, 15th, and 16th home runs of the season in just his 32nd game played. Entering play today, Fangraphs rated Bautista's value at a whopping 3.5 wins above replacement, primarily thanks to his video game-esque line of .358/.517/.798 (and that's prior to belting three more homers today). Over his past 192 games, he's hit .276/.402/.646., good enough for Dave Cameron of Fangraphs to question whether or not Bautista is the American League's best hitter.

Had Bautista reached free agency following this season, as he was projected to, he could have conceivably tried to exceed the seven-year contracts signed by Jayson Werth ($126MM) and Carl Crawford ($142MM) this past offseason. After all, he and agent Bean Stringfellow could point out that Werth only had three strong seasons prior to inking his deal. Bautista also doesn't have Werth's injury history, and offers the versatility of appearing at third base or in the outfield. And, assuming a 50 HR campaign for Bautista this year, they could argue that he hit as many homers from 2010-11 as Crawford had in his whole career when he signed his contract. At the bare minimum, he'd have commanded $20MM or more per season for five years or more.

Bautista's annual salary of $14MM from 2012 on is less than that of fellow outfielders Torii Hunter, Vernon Wells, Jason Bay, and Alfonso Soriano (to name a few). The total value of his deal exceeds Aaron Rowand's contract by just $4MM over the same number of guaranteed years.

Hindsight is always 20/20, but to this point, it looks like credit has to be given to Toronto GM Alex Anthopoulos and his staff for not only assessing that Bautista's 2010 was real and locking him up at a tremendous discount, but also moving Vernon Wells and his contract in order to free up payroll and make such an extension more feasible. Whether or not he's already the AL's best hitter, owning Bautista at such a discount will be a huge factor in the coming years as Toronto continues its quest to take their first AL East title since 1993.

Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.

Jack Of All Trades: Jose Bautista

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In my new book, Taking The Field, I have an entire chapter devoted to the July 30, 2004 trade of Scott Kazmir. But fascinatingly, Kazmir may not be the most valuable player the Mets dealt on that day. Jose Bautista also became an ex-Met on the day Victor Zambrano arrived in Queens. Based on wins above replacement (WAR), Bautista is well on his way to passing Kazmir. (That assumes Kazmir doesn't add any more value; he's actually lowered his career WAR the past two seasons.)

It has been a fascinating journey for Bautista to 54 home runs last year and an even better start this year. Bautista was with five organizations before he broke out with the Blue Jays – that's more teams than any other member of the 50 homer club belonged to pre-breakout. Only Luis Gonzalez's pre-50 homer travel itinerary came close; he played for three organizations before Arizona, including Houston twice.

Let's chart Bautista's evolution from organizational hot potato to all-time great slugger. The Pirates drafted Bautista in the 20th round of the 2000 draft, a round that produced just two other major leaguers: Carmen Pignatiello and Fred Lewis. With the exception of a terrific 2002 in the South Atlantic League, Bautista profiled about as he did in his pre-2010 Major League career: a .250 hitter with decent plate discipline and a little power. Still just 23 as 2003 ended, he had a good chance, with a season or two of polish, of becoming valuable – if he stuck at a middle infield position, very valuable.

Then, the scourge of reasonable prospect development struck: the Baltimore Orioles took Bautista in the Rule V Draft in December 2003. Suddenly, Bautista needed to make the transition from Class A pitching to the Major Leagues. Not surprisingly, he didn't. He hit a respectable .273 in 12 plate appearances for the Orioles, but Baltimore put him on waivers that June 3. Tampa Bay picked him up, gave him another 15 plate appearances, then sold him to Kansas City 25 days later. A little over a month after that, with 26 more plate appearances in Kansas City, the Royals traded him to the Mets for catching prospect Justin Huber. And the Mets, that very same day (Kazmir Day), traded Bautista, Ty Wigginton and pitching prospect Matt Peterson to the Pirates for Kris Benson and Jeff Keppinger.

Yes, all that could have been avoided if the Pirates just protected Bautista. Pittsburgh kept him around for another 43 plate appearances, and he didn't hit much back with his first organization, either. His 2004 total line over four organizations (five, including the Mets): .205/.263/.239. Pittsburgh wisely sent him to the minors for more seasoning.

After a strong year at Double-A, and brief promotion to Triple-A, the Pirates called Bautista up as a 24-year-old in 2004, hoping he'd be there to stay. He mostly did, providing value, with the ability to play corner positions (though middle infield was a non-starter) and giving Pittsburgh an OPS+ of about 95 each season. But by August 2008, Bautista was 27, and the chances that he'd become a star seemed nonexistent. So the Pirates, needing a catcher, traded Bautista to Toronto for Robinzon Diaz.

Diaz played one season in Pittsburgh, hit .279/.307/.357, then signed with the Tigers organization. He hasn't played in the Major Leagues since. Bautista provided another of his typical seasons for Toronto in 2009 – .235/.349/.408, good for an OPS+ of 99 – then turned into Jose Bautista as we now know him, baseball super icon.

Let's break down the trade. As of today, Bautista leads Diaz in total home runs hit with his new club, 78-1. However, this is misleading, since Diaz is no longer with the Pirates, and able to add to his total. Diaz does lead Bautista in runners thrown out trying to steal (Diaz had nine; Bautista, not a catcher, has 26 outfield assists with Toronto), and the Pirates undoubtedly lead the Blue Jays in fans shaking their fists angrily at the sky.

Generally, I like to find a moral in these trade paths, but it is hard with this one. Every player in baseball history who profiled like Jose Bautista didn't go on to become a classically great slugger, except for Jose Bautista. Perhaps it is simply a reminder that for all we think we know about how baseball will turn out, it still gloriously has the ability to surprise us – not just on a per-game basis, but on a personal one as well.

AL East Notes: Rupe, Bautista, Red Sox, Rays

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Ten years ago today, Marlins starter A.J. Burnett pitched a no-hitter against the Padres despite walking nine batters. Now a member of the Yankees' rotation, Burnett is off to a strong start after a disappointing 2010 season. Here's the latest on the Yankees' division rivals…

Rosenthal On Mariners, Bautista, Machado, Rays

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The depth of the Indians’ rotation is their biggest question, writes Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Now that Carlos Carrasco and Mitch Talbot are on the disabled list, the Tribe’s other options are being tested. Here’s Rosenthal’s latest from around the league:

  • The Mariners have the resources to bring in additional veterans when they want to, according to Rosenthal.
  • Jose Bautista, one of the top players in the game right now, is impressing just about everyone, including his own skipper. “His game awareness is as good as you’re going to get,” manager John Farrell told Rosenthal. “His ability in that regard takes him to another level."
  • A scout told Rosenthal that Manny Machado “looks like a man playing with little boys.” The Orioles selected the 18-year-old shortstop prospect with the third overall pick in last year’s draft and he has a 1.090 OPS in Class A.
  • The Rays may need to upgrade over Casey Kotchman at first base, but a definitive improvement may be difficult to find. The Brewers are likely to keep Prince Fielder, as Rosenthal points out.

Quick Hits: Astros, Phillies, Bautista, Starling

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Links for Friday on the 25th anniversary of Roger Clemens' first 20 strikeout game…

  • MLB officials say Jim Crane is still on track to buy the Astros from Drayton McLane, according to Richard Justice of the Houston Chronicle. Justice argues that Crane should bring Lance Berkman, Andy Pettitte and former GM Gerry Hunsicker back to Houston if he does take over.
  • Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports argues that manager Charlie Manuel needs to be cautious with his rotation, because it’s “by far the Phillies' biggest strength.”
  • Former Blue Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi told Tom Verducci of SI.com that he liked Jose Bautista enough to trade for him, but wasn’t expecting historic production from the former utility player. “If you told me he would hit 20 home runs, I would have believed it because you could see the power,” Ricciardi said. “But no way could you see 50.”
  • D'Backs GM Kevin Towers was on hand to watch high schooler Bubba Starling play yesterday, according to ESPN.com's Keith Law (on Twitter). A two sport athlete, Starling is arguably the top high school position player in the 2011 draft.

Heyman On Bautista, Wakefield, Dominguez, Perez

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Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos told Jon Heyman of SI.com that he thought carefully before locking up Jose Bautista to a $65MM extension. "When you spend that kind of money, I don't think you can ever be completely comfortable," Anthopoulos said. "And I am one to agonize over everything, anyway,'' Both Anthopoulos and Bautista acknowledged that a second 54-homer season is unlikely, but that doesn't mean the former utility player can't produce. Here are the rest of Heyman's rumors…

  • Boston's front office has not seriously considered cutting Tim Wakefield.
  • Dennys Reyes, who can opt out of his contract Friday, will likely make the team as well, according to Heyman.
  • Two scouts say Marlins third baseman Matt Dominguez isn't ready to hit in the major leagues. However, he's an above-average defender.
  • Though manager Joe Girardi won't say as much, Ivan Nova has locked up the Yankees' No. 4 starter job, according to Heyman.
  • It appears that Oliver Perez will find a job. The Yankees and Brewers aren't interested.
  • Scouts tell Heyman that Twins pitching prospect Kyle Gibson isn't far from the majors.

AL East Links: Bautista, Francona, Wakefield, Phelps

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The latest from the AL East, as Derek Jeter deflects Hank Steinbrenner's criticism…

  • ESPN.com's Jayson Stark argues quite convincingly that Jose Bautista is the face of the Blue Jays. Toronto manager John Farrell compared Bautista to Jayson Werth, another late bloomer who signed a big contract this offseason.
  • The Red Sox intend to pick up Terry Francona's two-year option at the end of the year, according to Jon Heyman of SI.com (on Twitter). Francona says he doesn't know how the Red Sox intend to approach the option, which is worth a total of $9MM.
  • John Tomase of the Boston Herald re-imagines the 1988 draft and suggests Tim Wakefield, then a first base prospect with some power, would have been worthy of a seventh overall selection. The Pirates drafted the future Red Sox knuckleballer in the eighth round. 
  • Former Blue Jays and Yankees DH Josh Phelps signed with the Italian Baseball League team Telemarket Rimini according to mister-baseball.com. The 32-year-old former top prospect hit 64 homers in the majors, including 20 for the 2003 Blue Jays.
  • ESPN.com's Keith Law includes Blue Jays prospect Brett Lawrie on his list of young players who are ready for the majors in one respect, but who need development in other areas. Lawrie's bat is nearly ready, but the Blue Jays need to figure out his future position.

Poll: Jose Bautista’s Extension

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Jose Bautista, an unlikely home run champion if there ever was one, signed a five-year, $64MM extension yesterday. The Blue Jays are hoping that the 30-year-old's breakout season (.260/.378/.617 line, 54 homers) is a sign that Bautista has transformed himself as a hitter. The skeptics, however, are not convinced that one year of elite production warrants a $64MM commitment.

Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos has earned the benefit of the doubt, if you ask ESPN.com's Buster Olney. But Olney says he probably would have traded Bautista if any team "dangled an acceptable package" and let another organization risk its money.

Dave Cameron of FanGraphs, who wasn't sure about the deal initially, says he likes the extension the more he considers it. Bautista has unusually good control of the strike zone and can still be one of baseball's most productive hitters if his power drops off, according to Cameron.

Anthopoulos told MLB.com's Gregor Chisholm that he believes in Bautista and is willing to take a calculated risk on him. Would you have done the same thing?

Blue Jays Sign Bautista To Five-Year Extension

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Last year wasn't supposed to be Jose Bautista's contract year. At the beginning of the 2010 campaign, Bautista was a utility player who had never hit more than 16 homers in any major league season and was still two years away from free agency. But his 54 home run outburst has officially earned him a five-year extension. The Blue Jays announced that they have avoided tomorrow's scheduled arbitration hearing and agreed to a $64MM extension with Bautista.

Bautista will earn $8MM in 2011 and $14MM per season from 2012-15, according to the team. The Blue Jays hold a $14MM option for 2016.

As our Arbitration Tracker shows, Bautista filed for $10.5MM and the team countered with a $7.6MM submission. The five-year deal, which resembles Dan Uggla's extension, buys out Bautista's fourth and final season of arbitration and his first four seasons of free agency.

Bautista posted a .260/.378/.617 line for the Blue Jays last year. He reached base like a leadoff hitter (.378 OBP) but his surprising power (.617 slugging percentage) pushed him to the heart of the Blue Jays' order before long. A versatile defender who spent most of last season in right field, Bautista is slated to start the coming season as Toronto's starting third baseman. For more on his unusual arbitration case click here.

Hunter Pence, who has a hearing scheduled tomorrow, is the lone unsigned arbitration eligible player remaining.

Enrique Rojas of ESPN Deportes first reported that the sides were close to an agreement and Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports first reported the deal was done.

Blue Jays Close To Extension With Jose Bautista

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7:44pm: Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports that the contract would also include a sixth year club option that could push the total value of the deal to $78MM (Twitter link).

7:05pm: The Blue Jays and Jose Bautista are close to agreeing to a five-year contract extension worth approximately $65MM, reports Enrique Rojas of ESPN Deportes. The deal would also include financial support for Bautista's charitable activities in Toronto and the Dominican Republic. Some details still need to be worked out and a physical must take place before the contract is finalized.  

As our Arbitration Tracker shows, Bautista filed for $10.5MM his final time through arbitration, the team $7.6MM. A five-year contract would buy out his final year of arbitration plus four free agent years. The two sides asked to have their arbitration hearing pushed back earlier this week, and indication that they were closing in on deal.

Bautista, 30, is coming off a historic 2010 season in which he hit 54 homers, the 19th highest single-season total in history. He also drew 100 walks, so his prodigous power output was backed up by a .378 OBP. Of course that was the first time Bautista performed at a star level. He'd hit just .238/.329/.400 with 59 homers in over 2,000 career plate appearances coming into 2010, so the Jays are clearly expecting Bautista to repeat last year's performance into his mid-30's.

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