Rosenthal’s Latest: Peavy Suitors, Lowe, Cardinals, Marlins
Ken Rosenthal has a new column up, focusing largely on suitors for Jake Peavy, but also touching on some other news at the end… so let’s take a look!
- Rosenthal states that the following teams have been speculated to be suitors for the Padres’ ace: Braves, Angels, Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Cubs, Astros, Dodgers, Cardinals, Brewers, Rays, Rangers. While all of these are not serious possibilities, he elaborates on each team. He mentions Yunel Escobar as a likely centerpiece from Atlanta, and states that the Angels would love to acquire a frontline starter to allow them to send Ervin Santana and/or Joe Saunders to Colorado in a deal for Matt Holliday and/or Garrett Atkins. Rosenthal states that Howie Kendrick could be a big part of any trade, but his health seems like too serious of a concern to me. Rosenthal speculates on the possibility of a dominant rotation for the Yankees if they traded for Peavy and signed C.C. Sabathia. One rival executive’s speculative package for Boston included Jacoby Ellsbury, Jed Lowrie, and Justin Masterson. The Padres will likely charge the Dodgers considerably more for Peavy’s service, as they are division rivals. He lists Rickie Weeks and J.J. Hardy as a possible centerpiece for a Milwaukee blockbuster, but also points out that Ben Sheets has made the Brewers wary of injury concerns. The other teams don’t seem to match up well, in Rosenthal’s opinion.
- Rosenthal says that he was wrong in stating that Derek Lowe would prefer to remain on the West Coast. Lowe has now told him that he’d prefer to go East, with Boston being his top choice. He reiterated this desire to the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo.
- The Cardinals prefer a short-term solution for their closer situation, and will likely give Chris Perez the ninth inning job, or seek a lower-budget option through the trade market. They may also trade a young outfielder for an established bat at a corner OF position.
- Kevin Gregg is still likely to be traded (perhaps an option for St. Louis), and four teams have asked Florida about Jeremy Hermida. Rosenthal speculates that the Marlins will begin 2009 with Cameron Maybin in center field and Cody Ross in right.
Week in Review: 9/14 – 9/20
Another week down here at MLBTR, here’s your review!
- The Brewers fired manager Ned Yost on Monday. Yost has taken a lot of criticism, and while I personally don’t feel like it’s a bad move, it seems like an odd time to disrupt the clubhouse, given that the Brewers are right in the wild card race. Perhaps this was intended to spark the Brewers and act as a wakeup call, but they have just two wins since the move.
- In an attempt to cut payroll, the Tigers may have to move Magglio Ordonez this offseason. Ordonez will make $18MM next year and has options for 2010 and 2011. Anyone else think the Reds should make a serious run at Maggs? A lineup filled with Jay Bruce, Brandon Phillips, Joey Votto, Edwin Encarnacion, and Ordonez could be extremely potent, to go along with a rotation anchored by Edinson Volquez, Aaron Harang, and Johnny Cueto.
- Despite their bullpen woes, the Mets are not likely to make a run at either Francisco Rodriguez, or Brian Fuentes either. The Mets’ internal options have been bad, but K-Rod is in for a record-setting deal, and aside from the sheer number of saves, I don’t feel that his numbers stand out to the point where the team that lands him is going to get the full value of that contract. Personally, I think passing is a good decision.
- Are the Royals currently interested in making a move for Braves’ right fielder Jeff Francoeur? The Royals have very few guys with solid OBPs, and adding Francoeur to the everyday lineup doesn’t seem like the route to go. Still, he has a long-standing relationship with Royals GM Dayton Moore, so it could be a valid possibility. The Royals have said they are willing to part with anyone aside from Zack Greinke, Gil Meche, and Joakim Soria.
- The Red Sox and Theo Epstein have agreed to a contract extension.
- Things to think about for in the offseason: Kevin Gregg expects to be traded, Matt Cain wants to stay in San Francisco, Milton Bradley wants a long-term deal and feels he has a 50-50 chance at returning to the Rangers. In the meantime, likely non-tender candidates include both Josh Bard and Erik Bedard.
- Tim updated the Offseason Outlook series with entries for the Athletics, Braves, and Tigers. He also took a look at the Third Base Market, led by Casey Blake.
- And for anyone curious about Manny Ramirez’s end in Boston, here’s Curt Schilling’s take on the situation.
Gregg Expects A Trade
Marlins reliever Kevin Gregg has recovered from knee tendinitis, but he’s still not getting his closer job back from Matt Lindstrom as promised. Gregg sees this as a sign he’ll be traded this winter, and many writers have speculated the same.
Gregg, 30, has a 3.66 ERA in 64 innings this year. He saved 61 games for the Marlins over the past two seasons despite shaky control (4.56 walks per nine innings). He’s throwing harder than ever this year (93.2 mph on average). Gregg will receive a raise upon his $2.5MM salary via arbitration this winter. After ’09 he’ll be a free agent.
Francisco Rodriguez and Brian Fuentes are the top free agents with a closer pedigree. Brandon Lyon and Eddie Guardado are other possibilities. Gregg may join Huston Street on the trade market. The Indians intend to add a closer, while the Tigers, Mets, and Cardinals could also be in the market.
Perrotto’s Latest: Royals, Ibanez, Rauch, Gregg
It’s Sunday, which means that John Perrotto has his Every Given Sunday column up over at Baseball Prospectus. Here’s the highlights…
- Royals GM Dayton Moore will likely make a big splash in the free agent market once again. Two years ago, he signed Gil Meche to a five-year, $55MM deal. Last year, he signed Jose Guillen to a three-year, $36MM contract. This year, his big target appears to be Rafael Furcal, which would allow the Royals to move Mike Aviles to second base. Moore is also believed to be willing to trade anyone on the team with the exceptions of Meche, Zack Greinke, and Joakim Soria.
- Raul Ibanez isn’t likely to be back with the Mariners as a free agent next season. Perrotto feels that Ibanez is a good bet to become the Rays’ designated hitter for 2009.
- The Diamondbacks originally wanted to use Jon Rauch as their closer for 2009 and let Brandon Lyon leave through free agency. Rauch’s recent string of rough outings has them reconsidering that train of thought.
- The Marlins will try to trade Kevin Gregg this offseason, and will likely non-tender him if they don’t find match.
- The Braves are looking to add two starters for the 2009 campaign. General manager Frank Wren has traveled overseas to scout Japanese pitchers Koji Uehara and Kenshin Kawakami already this year.
- The Nationals have a crowded situation at first base with both Nick Johnson and Dmitri Young under contract, but they’ll still be looking to improve at the position in the offseason.
Many Marlins Due Raises
Mike Berardino of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel discusses the Marlins’ difficult situation this winter, with as many as 18 players facing arbitration. Berardino projects salaries for these players in this chart.
As you may know, players typically reach arbitration the offseason after they cross the three-year service time mark. The resulting raise can be as much as 1000%, with Ryan Howard‘s case last year the most drastic example ($900K in ’07, $10MM in ’08). The Marlins’ biggest jump figures to be second baseman Dan Uggla – $417K in 08, perhaps $5MM or more in ’09. Most players face arbitration three times and then reach free agency. The player almost always gets a raise each year, and typically his salary cannot be cut by more than 20%. That’s why Berardino projects injured pitcher Sergio Mitre going from $1.2MM to $960K.
December 12th is the deadline for tendering contracts to arbitration-eligible players. Teams can choose to let their arbitration-eligible players go, and then those players become free agents despite having less than six years of service time. David Ortiz may be the most famous example.
The Marlins figure to be open for business this winter – Berardino names Kevin Gregg, Scott Olsen, and Mike Jacobs as top trade candidates. Jorge Cantu is another possibility, and a blockbuster for Uggla can’t be ruled out. The Marlins kept Miguel Cabrera until his second arbitration year, though.
Marlins Could Be Set For Another Fire Sale
Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald says the Marlins will be forced to trade away some of their arbitration-eligible players this offseason unless management is willing to double their payroll into the $50MM range.
Jackson takes a closer look at which players may be on the move…
- Two scouts and a GM told Jackson that the Marlins will likely explore the market for Mike Jacobs, noting they have other options at first base.
- Jackson feels the Marlins won’t want to give Dan Uggla a long-term deal and will look to trade him.
- With Cameron Maybin ready to take over, Jackson sees one or two of the starting outfielders, Cody Ross, Josh Willingham and Jeremy Hermida, being traded.
- Closer Kevin Gregg will be gone if Matt Lindstrom shows he can handle the job.
- Of the pitchers in the rotation, Scott Olsen seems the most likely to be traded. One scout told Jackson the Marlins could "get a lot" for Olsen and they have Andrew Miller who could take his spot.
Cork Gaines writes for RaysIndex.com and can be reached here.
Odds and Ends: Gregg, Howard, Shingo, Valentin, Ankiel
Some loose ends and links from today…
- Closer Kevin Gregg is the highest-paid Marlin at $2.5MM. Quick! Trade him!
- Ryan Howard and the Phillies submitted salary figures: Howard wants $10MM, the Phillies want to pay him $7MM. If they can’t meet in the middle then an independent arbitrator will pick one of the two amounts next month. MLB.com has a handy table showing all the figures submitted today by players and teams.
- Fun fact, the Cubs signed Shingo Takatsu. He’s 39 now; he saved 19 games for the ’04 White Sox. He had a 6.17 ERA in 23 innings in Japan last year though. Mr. Zero is the all-time saves leader in Japan.
- Jose Valentin‘s minor league deal was announced today. The free agent market is pretty much barren of middle infielders now.
- The Cardinals and Rick Ankiel agreed on $900K plus another $100K in incentives for ’08. He was an oddball case without comparables given his career progression.
- The Royals appear to be done this offseason.
Odds and Ends: Gregg, Hawkins, Tavarez
UPDATE, 12-5-07 at 1:12pm: Per Troy Renck, the Rockies denied interest in Tavarez.
UPDATE, 12-5-07 at 9:22am: The Rockies are one NL team confirmed to have an interest in Tavarez. He pitched for the Rox in 2000, making 12 starts.
FROM 12-5-07 at 12:31am:
Early Wednesday collection of randomness…
- The Marlins’ highest paid player is Kevin Gregg at $2.5MM. Trade that man, post-haste!
- The Rockies are starting to warm to the idea of giving LaTroy Hawkins two guaranteed years. Could’ve had him for one but they declined his option.
- Julian Tavarez would like to be traded to the NL and get a chance to start. The Red Sox hope for a bench player in return. Yesterday, Todd Zolecki named the Phillies as a possible suitor for Tavarez.
- Peter Gammons learned that Darin Erstad could retire to coach University of Nebraska football if he doesn’t find MLB interest suitable.