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Cubs Avoid Arbitration With Kris Bryant, Javier Baez

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3:07pm: The Cubs will pay Javier Baez an even $10MM, per Jeff Passan of ESPN.com (via Twitter). That’s $700K north of his projected earning point. The sides are said to be interested in hammering out a longer-term contract, which remains possible after working out a 2020 salary.

3:00pm: Several other key Cubs players also have deals, per ESPNChicago.com’s Jesse Rogers (Twitter links). Catcher Willson Contreras receives a $4.5MM salary, right on the MLBTR projection. Outfielder Kyle Schwarber will play for $7.01MM, south of the $8MM that the model predicted.

In other deals, the Cubs will pay southpaw Kyle Ryan $975K, according to Robert Murray (Twitter links). And outfielder Albert Almora will earn $1.575MM this year.

11:35am: The Cubs have avoided arbitration with third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant, according to Jeff Passan of ESPN.com (Twitter link). He’ll earn $18.6MM in 2020.

That’s right on the projected valuation produced by the MLBTR/Matt Swartz model, which pegged Bryant at $18.5MM. The model seemed to (and did) match up with the real-world situation, as Matt explained in a detailed look at Bryant’s case. It’s a nice raise on his $12.9MM salary from 2019.

Bryant, who recently turned 28, continues to churn out productive seasons. He was limited somewhat by injuries in 2018 but appeared in 147 contests in the just-completed campaign, slashing .282/.382/.521 and driving 31 balls over the fence.

This settles one of the winter’s open questions involving Bryant and the Cubs — but certainly not the most interesting one. We’re still awaiting the outcome of a service-time grievance brought by the player surrounding the eyebrow-raising timing of his initial promotion to the majors. The resolution of that situation promises to impact ongoing trade talks involving the long-time Chicago star. It seems clear that the organization is interested in exploring scenarios involving Bryant and other top players, though it’s unclear as yet whether he or any other key piece will end up on the move.

Trade Rumblings: Lindor, Padres, Dodgers, Betts, Yanks, Schwarber

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The Padres have at least kicked around the idea of attempting to swing a deal for Indians shortstop Francisco Lindor, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (subscription link). However, Rosenthal cautions that the superstar probably won’t end up in San Diego, which already has an enviable left side of the infield between shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. and third baseman Manny Machado. In the unlikely event the Padres do wind up with Lindor, it seems they’d try to turn Tatis into a multi-position player (primarily a center fielder), though Rosenthal notes doing so could displease the 20-year-old and would likely receive pushback from his representatives. That’s important considering San Diego’s desire to extend the phenom.

On the plus side, in addition to picking up an elite player in Lindor, the Padres would keep him away from the division-rival Dodgers, who have been connected to him this winter. But the Lindor-related talks between LA and Cleveland have only been “preliminary” to this point, per Buster Olney of ESPN (subscription). The Indians, for their part, aren’t necessarily under pressure to trade Lindor right now – he still has two years’ control left and remains the best player on a team that has been a consistent playoff contender in recent seasons. That said, the Indians don’t appear to have much of a chance to extend Lindor, so perhaps they’ll be open to parting with him this winter.

Let’s check in on a couple more of baseball’s highest-profile trade candidates…

  • Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported earlier this week that the Red Sox and Dodgers have had “exploratory trade talks” in regards to Boston outfielder Mookie Betts. The Dodgers have even included shortstop Corey Seager in discussions centering on Lindor and Betts, Nightengale relays. However, even though Betts only has a year of control left (in which he should make almost $30MM via arbitration), and even though the Red Sox are working to get under the $208MM luxury tax, it doesn’t look as if there’s any hurry to part with the former AL MVP. Instead, it seems the Red Sox’s preference is to trade from their starting staff, tweets the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier, who hears that they and the Dodgers “had virtually no engagement” in regards to Betts at last week’s Winter Meetings.
  • More from Rosenthal, who writes that the Yankees’ years-long interest in Cubs outfielder Kyle Schwarber has continued. Nevertheless, there’s no momentum toward a deal as of now, Rosenthal adds. Schwarber has been a favorite of the Cubs’ front office, though trading him could be part of an offseason shakeup for a club that fell apart late in 2019. The 26-year-old slugger still has two seasons of arbitration eligibility remaining, and he’s coming off a pair of above-average campaigns, so he’d likely be difficult for the Yankees or anyone else to acquire.

Cubs Will Not Explore Anthony Rizzo Extension This Offseason

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TODAY: Cubs GM Jed Hoyer discussed the situation with David Kaplan on Sports Talk Live (NBC Sports Chicago’s Tony Andracki has a partial transcript) today, saying that the two sides held “some conceptual talks about what an extension would look like and I think that, candidly, we were pretty far apart in terms of length and so he [Pollack] decided to come out and say that.”  Hoyer also noted these negotiations were in the very early stages, and that “there’s nothing that’s been done that’s going to stop future conversations.”

YESTERDAY: The Cubs have decided against pursuing an extension with first baseman Anthony Rizzo this offseason, agent Marc Pollack tells Jesse Rogers of ESPNChicago.com. Whether future contract talks will take place is an open question.

Rizzo is entering his second-to-last season of team control under his original extension. That deal has worked out swimmingly for the Chicago organization, which is paying Rizzo $14.5MM this season with another option remaining at the same price (with a $2MM buyout as the alternative).

It seems that Rizzo instructed his rep to broach the possibility of another contract that would keep him locked in at first base for many more years to come. That interest was rebuffed.

“Anthony has let his desire to be a Cub for life known to the organization,” says Pollack. “Although we do not know what the future holds, a deal to make that happen will not be addressed now.”

The 30-year-old Rizzo evidently isn’t seen as a desirable target despite another exceptional campaign at the plate. He slashed a robust .293/.405/.520 with 27 home runs in 2019 and has steadily produced big numbers since a breakout 2014 effort.

The Chicago organization is in an interesting position after carrying a big payroll for several seasons and wrapping up a costlier-than-expected Wrigley Field renovation project. While many would argue that further outlay is warranted, the club has again given signals that it will keep a tight hold on the purse this winter.

That said, the Cubs have expressed interest in pursuing some long-term deals. Rogers says that Kyle Schwarber also hasn’t yet been approached. Kris Bryant is all but certainly a non-starter. Whether Willson Contreras could be pursued isn’t known, but the team has discussed him in trade scenarios. It seems infielder Javier Baez is the likeliest candidate to be locked up at some point in the offseason.

Cubs Rumors: Bryant, Castellanos, Schwarber, Almora

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Star third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant filed a grievance against the Cubs in regards to their decision to call him up to the majors for the first time April 17, 2015 – one day after he’d have been able to work toward a full year of service time. Many viewed it (and still do) as a clear act of service-time manipulation on the Cubs’ part. A decision on Bryant’s grievance could come by next month’s winter meetings, though it’s doubtful he’ll win, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times suggests. Regardless, there aren’t any hard feelings between the two sides, president of baseball operations Theo Epstein and agent Scott Boras indicate in Wittenmyer’s piece. But are the Cubs primed to extend Bryant, who has two expensive seasons of arbitration eligibility remaining? It doesn’t seem any recent long-term talks have occurred, but “Theo and I are talking all the time, and certainly when he and ownership want to discuss anything along those lines, our ears are open, no doubt,” Boras said. The Cubs’ most recent offer to Bryant came “long before” last year “and for much less” than the $200MM-plus the club was rumored to have put on the table, Wittenmyer writes.

Here’s more on the North Siders…

  • While the Cubs aren’t in danger of losing Bryant yet, they are facing the departure of free-agent outfielder Nicholas Castellanos. Although Castellanos starred for the Cubs after they acquired him from the Tigers at the July trade deadline, Chicago’s probably not going to re-sign him, Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic observes (subscription link). Not only is Castellanos likely to end up earning more than the Cubs are willing to spend – MLBTR projects he’ll reel in a $58MM guarantee over four years – but their corner outfield mix may be too crowded to bring him back. The team already has Bryant, Jason Heyward and Kyle Schwarber among its option in left/right.
  • If the Cubs were to retain Castellanos, “they would have to aggressively try to deal Schwarber,” Sharma posits. The Cubs regard them as similar players, according to Sharma, and for good reason. They’re both offensively adept corner outfielders who are arguably defensive question marks. However, the Cubs don’t believe they’d get an appealing enough return for Schwarber to trade him, and they’re reluctant to deal him after the excellent second half he posted in 2019, Sharma hears.
  • More from Sharma, who relays that center fielder Albert Almora’s “a strong possibility” to stay with the Cubs because he lacks trade value. The free-agent market for center fielders is weak, and Almora has three affordable years of arbitration control left. Those factors, not to mention his age (26 in April), could boost his trade value. However, the production Almora recorded in 2019 may offset the positives. He hit .236/.371/.381 with a disastrous minus-0.7 fWAR across 363 plate appearances. Still, Chicago seems unwilling to give up on Almora via trade or non-tender.

Payroll Notes: Diamondbacks, Cubs, Mariners

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Zack Greinke is off the books. Ill-fated Cuban signee Yasmany Tomas will be off the books after next season. The Diamondbacks avoided doubling-down with pricey extensions for former core performers Paul Goldschmidt, Patrick Corbin, and A.J. Pollock. Arizona GM Mike Hazen sloughed the necessary financial weight to put the Dbacks in the unfamiliar position of having some money to spend, per Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. Per Roster Resource, their 2020 payroll sits at about $109MM, only about $14MM shy of their 2019 opening day figure, but they have significant financial freedom beyond next season, when the only remaining salary obligations belong to underpaid cornerstones Ketel Marte and Eduardo Escobar. Keep an eye out for MLBTR’s Offseason Outlook Series for a further investigation into the Diamondbacks options moving forward. For now, let’s check in elsewhere around the league…

  • The Cubs have a less flexible financial situation at present, and how they maneuver this offseason remains one of the most intriguing questions of the winter. They’re the best team in the NL Central as presently constituted, per Fangraphs’ Craig Edwards, though it surely doesn’t feel like it to Cubs fans after their September collapse. Rumors of significant change continue to swirl, but it’s hard to argue how moving one of their stars like Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, or Javier Baez will improve the team in the short-term, and it’s hard to justify willfully closing the window on the team that won the 2016 championship. And yet, last season’s decline was so thorough the Cubs have to wonder if a managerial change alone is enough to shock The Cubs Way back to life. Moving Kyle Schwarber also isn’t the answer, per NBC Sports Chicago’s Tony Andracki, who makes the case that Schwarber, 27 in March, is entering his prime after finally showing signs of reaching his considerable offensive ceiling in the second half last year. Recent rumblings peg Willson Contreras as the potential moving piece, but trading a potent firecracker like Contreras is a risk. Theo Epstein’s accolades as a cursebreaker are unparalleled, but turning this club back into a true-blue contender might be his biggest career challenge to date.
  • The Mariners should act now to open their competitive window in 2021 by making a run at Gerrit Cole, per The Athletic’s Corey Brock. It makes sense on paper, as Cole makes any rotation look a whole heck of a lot better, though it’s certainly hard to imagine. If the Mariners really do want to contend with the Astros and A’s as early as 2021, a rotation led by Cole, Marco Gonzales and Yusei Kikuchi looks a lot better than a rotation fronted by Gonzalez and Kikuchi alone. The Mariners do have money to spend as well, with just $44MM on the books for 2021, and if Cole is the best free agent pitcher available over, say, the next three offseasons, then it would make sense to make a run at him now. That said, all signs point to a more modest approach from Seattle this winter.

Is Kyle Schwarber Better Than This?

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It’s well known that Cubs brass has long revered Kyle Schwarber, the fourth overall pick in 2014 whom the team refused to part with in trades during ensuing seasons. The big-bodied Schwarber was a catcher in his younger days, though there was much skepticism the ex-Indiana Hoosier would carve out a future in the majors behind the plate. Indeed, despite having slimmed down in recent years, Schwarber hasn’t donned the tools of ignorance at all since 2017.

With no DH spot available in the National League and Anthony Rizzo holding down first base, Schwarber has settled in as the Cubs’ left fielder. Reviews have been mixed on Schwarber, who has simultaneously accounted for minus-13 Defensive Runs Saved and a plus-14.6 Ultimate Zone Rating through upward of 2,700 innings in left. The fact that Schwarber hasn’t been unplayable in the outfield is a clear positive, but his left-handed bat will always be his carrying tool. However, despite the hype that has surrounded Schwarber in his career, he hasn’t emerged as a great major league hitter yet.

Schwarber was a tremendous college and minor league offensive performer who immediately made his mark in Chicago as a rookie in 2015, when he slashed .246/.355/.487 (131 wRC+) with 16 home runs across 273 plate appearances. In light of his stellar introduction, expectations were Schwarber would further cement himself as a linchpin of the Cubs’ lineup in 2016. Instead, though, he suffered a torn left ACL and LCL in April of that year and wound up missing all but two regular-season games. To his immense credit, Schwarber became something of a Chicago folk hero in rehabbing quickly enough to return for the World Series that autumn. Schwarber put the exclamation point on his Fall Classic comeback by slashing a fantastic .412/.500/.471 in 20 PA against the Indians to help the Cubs win their first title in 108 years.

The good times were supposed to keep rolling for Schwarber, but his output has been underwhelming since his triumphant return. Dating back to 2017, Schwarber has batted .226/.333/.466 with 74 homers, a 107 wRC+ and 5.6 fWAR over 1,340 trips to the plate. The 26-year-old has essentially been a league-average hitter (101 wRC+) through 344 PA this season, making him an unspectacular part of a team whose weeks-long slump has led to frustration from its higher-ups.

Here’s some much-needed positive news for the Cubs, though: Better days may be ahead for Schwarber. His hard-hit percentage ranks second among all qualified hitters who have totaled at least 100 batted ball-events this year, per Statcast, while his average exit velocity on line drives and fly balls checks in at 13th. Among batters who have accumulated at least 300 PA in 2019, FanGraphs credits Schwarber with the game’s seventh-lowest soft-contact percentage (10.8). Adding to the encouragement, Schwarber has increased his flies/liners while decreasing his grounders compared to 2018. He’s also making more contact while swinging and missing less than he did a year ago. All of that has helped Schwarber maintain his prodigious power despite so-so overall results this year, as he has chipped in 18 HRs with a .234 ISO.

With the above considered, it’s no surprise Schwarber’s expected weighted on-base average (.358) far outdoes his real wOBA (.331). However, just because Schwarber’s hitting the ball hard doesn’t automatically mean his production will positively regress. It doesn’t appear the strikeout-prone Schwarber is a sure bet to ever complement his power with a high batting average or a lofty BABIP (the latter’s at .269 this year, right in line with his career mark), so he has to compensate by drawing walks. Schwarber collected free passes a personal-best 15.3 percent of the time in 2018, assisting in a career-high .356 OBP and helping cancel out a .238 average. But his walk percentage has dropped to 12.5 – not far from his lifetime figure – this year. That’s still easily above average, but the 3 percent fall has limited Schwarber to a .326 OBP that’s barely better than the .322 MLB mean.

Average offensive numbers aren’t going to suffice for Schwarber, who Baseball America wrote in 2015 had a chance to become a “.300-hitting, 30-homer” force in the majors. While Schwarber’s power potential has indeed transferred to the bigs since then, the Cubs continue waiting for the rest of the offensive package to arrive.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: National League

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The deadline for players and teams to exchange arbitration figures passed yesterday at 1pm ET, and there has been a landslide of settlements on one-year deals to avoid an arbitration hearing. We’ll track those settlements from the National League in this post. Once all of the day’s settlements have filtered in, I’ll organize them by division to make them a bit easier to parse.

It’s worth mentioning that the vast majority of teams have adopted a “file and trial” approach to arbitration, meaning that once arbitration figures are exchanged with a player, negotiations on a one-year deal will cease. The two parties may still discuss a multi-year deal after that point, but the majority of players who exchange figures with their team today will head to an arbitration hearing.

As always, all salary projections referenced within this post are courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, and we’ll also be updating our 2019 Arbitration Tracker throughout the day…

Today’s Updates

  • Rounding out contract numbers for the St. Louis Cardinals, Dominic Leone will take home $1.26MM, Chasen Shreve will make $900K, and outfielder Marcell Ozuna will earn $12.25MM in his last season before free agency, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). Ozuna has the most high-impact potential as he looks to rebound from a still-productive season in 2018 that saw his power output hindered at times by a balky shoulder. He still managed 23 home runs and a .280/.325/.433 slash line while playing just about every day outside of a 10-day DL stint late in August.
  • The Diamondbacks came to terms with a slew of players, per Feinsand (via Twitter), including Matt Andriese for $920K, Steven Souza Jr. for $4.125MM, shortstop Nick Ahmed for $3.6625MM, and potential closer Archie Bradley for $1.83MM.
  • The Rockies and starting pitcher Jon Gray have come to an agreement on a $2.935MM deal, per Feinsand (via Twitter). Gray had an up-and-down 2018 that is generally considered to be more promising than the optics of his 5.12 ERA make it seem.
  • The Pirates have come to terms on one-year deals with both of their arbitration eligible players, per Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Left fielder Corey Dickerson signs for $8.5MM, and reliever Keone Kela takes home $3.175MM. It’s a small arb class for the Pirates, whose list will grow next season as players like Josh Bell, Jameson Taillon, and Joe Musgrove, among others, reach their first season of eligibility.
  • The Dodgers signed a couple of their remaining arbitration-eligible players yesterday, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter links). Utility man Chris Taylor has a $3.5MM deal, while outfield Joc Pederson settled at $5MM.

Earlier Updates

Read more

NL News & Rumors: Cubs, Schwarber, Mets, Giants, Bucs, Braves

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The Cubs, who have always been bullish on Kyle Schwarber, continue to spurn inquiries for the slugger, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. Still only 25 years old, Schwarber just turned in a 3.2-fWAR season in which he batted .238/.356/.467 (115 wRC+) with 26 home runs in 510 plate appearances and unexpectedly received positive marks in left field (two DRS, 9.8 UZR). Schwarber will play his first of three potential arbitation seasons in 2019, when he’s projected to earn just $3.1MM.

Here’s more from the National League:

  • Unsurprisingly, the Mets aren’t willing to part with both Michael Conforto and Brandon Nimmo in a trade for Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto, Jon Heyman of Fancred reports. Moreover, the Mets don’t want to trade young infielder Amed Rosario at all, Heyman adds. As great as Realmuto is, it wouldn’t make sense for the Mets to trade Conforto and Nimmo – their most valuable outfielders – for two years of control over him. Conforto still has another three years of control left, while Nimmo has four more – including a pre-arb season in 2019.
  • The Giants hired Farhan Zaidi as their president of baseball operations a month ago, but Pirates general manager Neal Huntington was among the candidates they spoke with before then, according to Heyman. It’s unclear how serious the Giants’ interest in Huntington was, but it is known that he’s under contract in Pittsburgh through 2021. Next season will be Huntington’s 12th as the Pirates’ GM.
  • More on the Mets, who – along with the previously reported Chili Davis – have added Chuck Hernandez and Luis Rojas to their coaching staff, Heyman tweets and the the team has since made official. Hernandez will be their bullpen coach, while Rojas will serve as a quality control coach. Hernandez worked as the division-rival Braves’ pitching coach from 2017-18. They dismissed him after last season.
  • Speaking of the Braves, they’ve hired Gary Rajsich to work in professional and amateur scouting, per Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. Rajsich had been the Orioles’ scouting director since 2011, bu they booted him from their front office last month.

Injury Updates: Morrow, Cubs, Chapman, McFarland, Liberatore

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The Cubs got some good news on Brandon Morrow today, as the closer felt good after throwing a 19-pitch simulated game.  (The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma and the Chicago Tribune’s Paul Sullivan were among those who reported the news.)  Morrow hasn’t pitched since July 15 due to biceps inflammation, and as recently as 10 days ago, manager Joe Maddon expressed some doubt that Morrow would be able to pitch again this season.  In the wake of today’s simulated outing, Morrow could potentially be activated from the DL in time for at least part of the Cubs’ series against the Diamondbacks, which begins on Monday.  Morrow won’t be used as a closer right away, Maddon said, as the team will ease the righty back into action by keeping him on pitch counts and avoiding using him in back-to-back games.  Even in this limited capacity, Morrow’s impending return is nice boost for the Cubs’ postseason chances, as the veteran had a sterling 1.47 ERA, 9.1 K/9, and 3.44 K/BB rate over his first 30 2/3 innings in a Chicago uniform.

Here are some more injury updates from around baseball…

  • In other Cubs injury news, Maddon told Sahadev Sharma (Twitter link) and other reporters that Jason Heyward could return from the DL as early as today after missing two weeks with a hamstring injury.  Kyle Schwarber hasn’t played since September 10 due to a bad back, though the slugger could be available to pinch-hit today.
  • Yankees closer Aroldis Chapman felt good after a bullpen session today, and he’ll throw a simulated game on Monday or Tuesday, MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch tweets.  If all goes well, Chapman is on pace to be activated from the disabled list sometime this week.  Chapman hit the DL due to knee inflammation on August 22, and there was even some concern that the problem could sideline the closer for the rest of the regular season.  Now, however, it looks as if Chapman will be back on the field and get some time to work off the rust before the postseason.
  • Diamondbacks southpaw T.J. McFarland hasn’t pitched since September 8 due to elbow soreness, though the problem appears to be only a bone spur rather than a more serious UCL issue, FOX Sports Arizona’s Jody Jackson reports (via Twitter).  McFarland is back to playing catch with the hopes of a return to the mound.  The left-hander has been a force for the D’Backs this season, posting a 2.00 ERA and a 67.9% grounder rate over 72 relief innings.
  • Free agent reliever Adam Liberatore will require 6-8 weeks of recovery time after undergoing arthroscopic surgery on his left knee, J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group reports (Twitter link).  The procedure isn’t expected to have any impact on Liberatore’s readiness for the 2019 season, though it will obviously slow his chances of immediately catching on with a new team.  The left-hander was limited by knee problems this season and a forearm strain in 2017, and thus he has thrown just 16 1/3 Major League innings total in 2017-18.  When healthy, Liberatore has looked like a solid relief option, posting a 3.55 ERA, 9.4 K/9, and 2.58 K/BB rate over 88 2/3 career frames for the Dodgers, who released Liberatore last week.

Injury Notes: Zobrist, Despaigne, Ohtani

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Ben Zobrist says he’s headed to the DL to tend to a minor back injury, via Jesse Rogers of ESPN. There doesn’t seem to be any serious concern, but Zobrist has missed the past few games due to the injury, so the Cubs appear to be proceeding with caution. They’ll be able to make the move retroactive by a few days, so it seems unlikely he’ll be out for very long. The versatile Zobrist is in the third year of a four-year, $56MM contract with Chicago. He’s certainly off to an impressive start; in 49 plate appearances so far this season, the veteran has hit .326/.408/.465 with more walks (six) than strikeouts (5). For the time being, players like Kyle Schwarber, Albert Almora Jr. and Ian Happ will likely continue to get an extra game here and there to plug the gaps created by Zobrist’s absence

A pair of additional injury notes elsewhere in MLB…

  • The Marlins officially placed 31-year-old righty Odrisamer Despaigne on the DL last night (along with fellow reliever Chris O’Grady), as we noted in our daily roster roundup. The reason was a strained forearm, which is always a concerning injury when it comes to pitchers. According to Joe Frisaro of MLB.com, Despaigne had the following to say about his injury: “I first felt it tight when I was warming up in the bullpen. I tried to keep going with it. When the game started, it’s when I started to feel the pain.” For the Marlins, it’s yet another development that thins out an already-shaky pitching staff.
  • Two-way Angels phenom Shohei Ohtani appears to be making progress in regards to his blister issues. Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register tweets that Ohtani feels his blister is “recovering”, and that he’s on schedule to make a start on Tuesday in Houston. Fletcher also notes that Ohtani worked with pitching coach Charlie Nagy in a bullpen session, and came away with some things he can use (presumably to prevent a re-aggravation of the injury).
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