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Lance McCullers Jr.

Astros Notes: Alvarez, Abreu, Rotation

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Jose Abreu’s return from an optional assignment to the minor leagues will indirectly further crowd the the team’s outfield mix, writes Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle. Manager Joe Espada said yesterday that with Abreu back on the roster, Yordan Alvarez is likely to see more time in left field, allowing both Abreu and Jon Singleton to be in the lineup at first base and designated hitter.

Alvarez has made consecutive starts in left field after previously appearing in only three games at the position. Espada noted that Alvarez picking up outfield at-bats will come at the expense of Chas McCormick and Mauricio Dubon, adding that he’ll still work to keep everyone involved in the mix for playing time. (MVP candidate Kyle Tucker and center fielder Jake Meyers, in the midst of a breakout showing, naturally don’t appear as though their playing time will be impacted.)

Abreu is 1-for-6 with an RBI single since being recalled from a monthlong sojourn to the minor leagues — a rare assignment for a veteran of his status but one to which the former AL MVP consented after a disastrous start to the season. He went 7-for-22 with a homer and a pair of doubles with Houston’s Rookie-level Arizona Complex League affiliate. Abreu then played a pair of games in Triple-A Sugar Land and went 0-for-7 with a walk and three strikeouts.

The Astros are trying what they can to get Abreu back on track after a disappointing debut campaign in 2023 and a calamitous .099/.156/.113 slash through his first 77 plate appearances of the current campaign. It’s not clear what kind of leash Abreu will have, particularly with Houston sitting 6.5 games back in both the AL West and in the AL Wild Card chase, but Abreu’s three-year, $58.5MM contract gives the team plenty of financial incentive to try to turn things around.

Between Abreu and the 32-year-old Singleton, who returned to the majors after a seven-year absence last season, the Astros’ first base mix has been woefully unproductive. Singleton has turned in a .221/.327/.359 slash — roughly league-average offense (102 wRC+) that’s been accompanied by poorly rated defense (-4 Defensive Runs Saved, -4 Outs Above Average in 293 innings).

That lackluster output from the team’s first basemen is just one of many reasons the Astros find themselves staring at a 24-32 record with more than a third of the season in the books. The rotation’s health — or rather, the lack thereof — has also been a prominent factor. On that front, Espada provided a mixed bag of updates.

On the positive side of things, right-hander Luis Garcia is continuing to progress well in his rehab from last year’s Tommy John surgery. He threw off a mound at Minute Maid Park last week, and MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart tweets that the right-hander is now slated to throw to hitters in his next throwing session. McTaggart adds that righty Lance McCullers Jr., who’s on the mend from flexor surgery, threw a bullpen session this week but is still “a few weeks” from facing live hitters.

Facing live hitters and pitching in simulated game settings are often the last steps before an injured pitcher is cleared to set out on a minor league rehab assignment. Garcia will presumably have multiple live batting practice sessions before progressing to a rehab stint, which could last up to 30 days itself. A return isn’t right around the corner just yet, but he’s on track for a midsummer debut this year. McCullers, it seems, isn’t terribly far behind him.

Less encouraging were Espada’s updates on injured right-handers Jose Urquidy and Cristian Javier. Both are “getting opinions from other doctors,” according to Espada (via McTaggart). Seeking second opinions is always an ominous step for a pitcher, particularly when both are dealing with this type of injury. Urquidy has yet to pitch this season after suffering a forearm strain in spring training. Javier went on the injured list last week with forearm discomfort.

AL West Notes: Kirby, Rojas, Langford, Astros

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Mariners right-hander George Kirby underwent an MRI exam on his right knee yesterday, manager Scott Servais told reporters (including Adam Jude of the Seattle Times) prior to last night’s game against Houston. Servais didn’t provide details on the results of Kirby’s MRI but made clear that the imaging was precautionary and expressed optimism that Kirby will make be ready to make his next start. The righty was pulled from his start on Friday after just 88 pitches due to the issue, though following that game Kirby noted that his knee had been “bugging” him for the “past couple of weeks.” He’s pitched through it to this point, however, and like Servais suggested that he wasn’t concerned about the problem.

That’s surely a relief for the Mariners, Kirby has gotten off to a strong start this year. While his 3.76 ERA is actually just below league average by measure of ERA+, he currently sports a career-best 26.3% strikeout rate to go along with a 2.6% walk rate, while his 65.4% strand rate is much lower than is sustainable through seven starts. Given that, it’s no surprise that Kirby has some of the best peripheral numbers in the league with a 2.08 FIP, a 2.84 xERA, a 3.03 SIERA and a 3.10 xFIP.

That type of production is extremely hard to replace, and Mariners fans are surely hoping that Kirby’s knee issue is as minor as he and the team believe it to be. Should Kirby require a trip to the IL, the Mariners could turn to struggling Triple-A starter Levi Stoudt or perhaps non-roster veteran Dallas Keuchel to fill out the rotation while youngster Bryan Woo finishes up a rehab assignment at the Triple-A level.

More from around the AL West…

  • Sticking with the Mariners, Servais indicated to reporters (including Jude) yesterday that the club is hoping to get infielder Josh Rojas additional at-bats going forward. Rojas has gotten off to a hot start this year as part of a platoon with Luis Urias at third base, slashing .338/.420/.535 in 82 trips to the plate. Per Servais, the solution to that could be moving Rojas to left field on days that Urias is playing the hot corner. With Dominic Canzone on the injured list, Seattle has primarily relied on Luke Raley and Dylan Moore in left this season but neither has taken hold of the position with particularly strong offensive numbers, so affording more playing time to Rojas and Urias could be a way to bolster an offense that ranks 22nd in the majors with a 96 wRC+, including a 58 wRC+ in left field.
  • Rangers youngster Wyatt Langford entered the season as a widely-speculated AL Rookie of the Year candidate after he fought his way onto the Opening Day roster with an incredible Spring Training, but he’s scuffled somewhat in the early going this season with a wRC+ of just 68 and an ISO of just .069 that puts him in the bottom five among all qualified outfielders this year in terms of power production. Now, however, Langford may be dealing with an injury on top of his struggles at the plate after he exited last night’s game with tightness in his right hamstring, as noted Jeff Wilson of Rangers Today. Should Langford require a trip to the IL, the club would likely turn to veteran outfielder Travis Jankowski to fill out the lineup in his absence.
  • Astros outfielder Chas McCormick has only been on the injured list for a few days, but manager Joe Espada told reporters (including MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart) that he is already making good progress in his rehab from a right hamstring issue. Per Espada, McCormick has begun running and is nearing the point where he’ll be able to begin batting practice, adding that the club hopes to get the 29-year-old out for a minor league rehab assignment “pretty soon.” McCormick scuffled at the plate to open the season this year but was one of the club’s strongest contributors in 2023, when he slashed .273/.353/.489 in 115 games.
  • Sticking with the Astros, Espada also provided an update to reporters (including McTaggart) about injured right-hander Lance McCullers Jr. McCullers last pitched in the majors in late 2022 but has now progressed to throwing off a mound in his rehab process. It’s a major step for McCullers, who has made just eight starts since the end of the 2021 postseason due to flexor tendon issues. When healthy enough to take the mound, McCullers has been an impact starter for the Astros with a 2.96 ERA and 3.51 FIP in 36 starts from 2021-22. The right-hander isn’t expecting to return to action until later this summer, though yesterday’s news appears to indicate he remains on track to pitch for the club this season.

Astros Select Tayler Scott

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Right-hander Tayler Scott has made the Astros’ Opening Day roster, reports Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle. He’d been in camp as a non-roster invitee but will be selected to the 40-man roster, with lefty Bennett Sousa heading to the 15-day IL and righty Lance McCullers Jr. heading to the 60-day IL to create roster space for him. McCullers is recovering from forearm surgery and was already known to be out for the early portion of the season. Sousa is dealing with shoulder inflammation.

Scott, 31, has appeared in parts of three MLB seasons, spending time with the Mariners, Orioles, Padres, Dodgers, Red Sox and A’s. He’s only pitched 46 big league innings, but Houston will still remarkably be his seventh team.

The first South African-born player in MLB history, Scott signed a minor league deal over the winter and had an excellent spring showing. In 11 innings, he notched a tidy 2.45 ERA with 10 punchouts against four walks while keeping the ball on the ground at a huge 55.2% clip.

Scott has yielded 46 runs in his 46 MLB innings, but teams have been continually drawn to his strong minor league track record and the high-end spin rate on his slider. Scott has a solid 3.83 ERA in 206 2/3 Triple-A frames, having punched out nearly 27% of his opponents against a 9.1% walk rate at that level.

Astros Notes: Extensions, Hader, Pressly, McCullers

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While the Astros prepare for the 2024 season, star infielders Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman are headed into the final years of their contracts, with free agency looming next winter. As relayed by The Athletic’s Chandler Rome, Houston GM Dana Brown recently made clear that the club has not had extension discussions with either player this winter. The same goes for outfielder Kyle Tucker, who Rome adds recently indicated that he and the club did not discuss a long-term extension before agreeing to a $12MM salary for the 2024 season to avoid arbitration earlier this month. This winter marked Tucker’s penultimate trip through arbitration, and he’ll be eligible for free agency following the 2025 season.

That the team has not yet broached possible extension talks with any of the aforementioned trio is something of a surprise. Houston has leaned heavily on extensions to keep its core together since the team first returned to contention back in 2015. Over the past six years, the Astos have handed out extensions to Altuve, Bregman, Ryan Pressly (in both 2019 and 2022), Justin Verlander, Yordan Alvarez, Cristian Javier, and Lance McCullers Jr. that extended the team’s window of control over each player.

With that being said, it’s worth noting that an unusually slow offseason has left the baseball world still in the thick of free agency, which could serve as a complicating factor in potential extension talks. Such discussions, particularly those for players like Altuve and Bregman who are not under control via arbitration, are often held once Spring Training begins. Last spring, Astros brass expressed a desire to work out deals with each of Altuve, Bregman, Tucker, Javier, and Framber Valdez, though the aforementioned Javier extension was the only one that ultimately got done. While it’s certainly possible that any of the trio could begin extension negotiations with the club after reporting to camp next month, each is a multi-time All Star coming off a strong season at the plate and could prove expensive to lock in long-term when free agency is just over the horizon.

More notes from Houston…

  • Now that the Astros have agreed to a five-year deal to bring star closer Josh Hader to Houston it seems as though Pressly, who has served as the club’s closer in each of the past four seasons, may be moving out of that role. Rome notes, however, that both Brown and manager Joe Espada discussed the situation with the 35-year-old veteran in the days leading up to their agreement with Hader. Each said that the conversation with Pressly went well, adding that he’s “all in” for his new role in the club’s bullpen as a premiere set-up option to Hader alongside youngster Bryan Abreu. Pressly posted a solid 3.58 ERA and 3.36 FIP while striking out 27.6% of batters faced last season, while Abreu dominated opposing hitters with a 34.8% strikeout rate and a 1.75 ERA in 72 appearances. Adding Hader to the mix figures to give Houston perhaps the most fearsome back-end trio in any bullpen around the league entering the 2024 campaign.
  • Rome also relayed an update on the status of McCullers, who underwent flexor tendon surgery back in June. McCullers has progressed to the point of throwing off flat ground from 80 feet away and noted that he’s feeling good, though when asked about his timetable for return suggested that a feasible timeline could involve him returning sometime during the late summer. With three years remaining on the contract extension the righty signed prior to the 2021 season, the deal hasn’t gone how either side was hoping to this point. While he’s pitched to a strong 3.16 ERA and 3.55 FIP with a 26.3% strikeout rate since the ink dried on the pact, he’s made just 47 starts across the past three seasons and appears ticketed for another season spent primarily on the shelf in 2024. Until McCullers returns to action, the club figures to rely on some combination of Jose Urquidy, Hunter Brown, and J.P. France to fill out the rotation alongside Verlander, Valdez, and Javier.

Astros Notes: Payroll, Rotation, Maldonado, Neris

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The Astros advanced to their seventh consecutive League Championship Series in 2023 but fell shy of a third straight World Series bid when the division-rival and eventual World Series Champion Rangers knocked them off in a thrilling seven-game series. They’ll head into the winter with a trio of notable relievers hitting free agency (Hector Neris, Phil Maton, Ryne Stanek) and with a rotation that’s a bit thinned out by to injuries of Lance McCullers Jr. (flexor tendon surgery) and Luis Garcia (Tommy John surgery). Veteran Michael Brantley is also returning to the open market.

Despite a plethora of needs up and down the roster, general manager Dana Brown openly acknowledged at this week’s GM Meetings that his team doesn’t “have a ton” of financial flexibility heading into the offseason (link via Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle). That’s unwelcome news for ’Stros fans, though Brown suggested that if the right situation presented itself, owner Jim Crane might push beyond his current comfort levels.

As it stands, strong rookie performances from the likes of Hunter Brown and J.P. France give Houston a quality group of six starters on which to lean. Reacquired ace Justin Verlander, lefty Framber Valdez and righties Cristian Javier and Jose Urquidy round out the rotation options.

Verlander will pitch next season at 41, however, while Valdez and Javier faltered a bit as the year wore on; Javier’s rotation spot was skipped a couple times over the summer as he labored through mixed results, while Valdez turned in a pedestrian 4.64 ERA over his final 99 innings before being rocked for 12 earned runs in 12 postseason frames. Urquidy spent several months on the injured list and turned in 73 innings of 5.30 ERA ball between the regular season and playoffs combined.

The depth beyond those six is more concerning. Righties Shawn Dubin and Brandon Bielak both had rough showings in Triple-A. The latter tossed 80 innings of 3.83 ball in the big leagues but did so with a 10.2% walk rate, 17.6% strikeout rate and too many home runs allowed (1.35 HR/9) to necessarily bank on a repeat. Former top prospect Forrest Whitley, also on the 40-man roster, posted a 5.70 ERA in 30 Triple-A frames.

Brown indicated to reporters that he’d be open to opportunities to add “a legit third starter or better.” Logically speaking, doing so without radically increasing the payroll would likely require operating on the trade market rather than in free agency. It sounds as though that’s viewed more as a luxury than a priority anyhow; McCullers and Garcia are expected back sometime in July, and Brown instead called the bullpen and backup catcher “priorities.”

To that end, it’s perhaps not surprising to hear that the ’Stros and longtime catcher Martin Maldonado could continue their relationship. Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports that the two parties have mutual interest in a reunion, adding that Brown has already met with Maldonado’s agent, Dan Lozano, during this week’s GM Meetings. The Astros have publicly declared that Yainer Diaz will be their primary catcher in 2024, but as Brown himself spelled out, adding an experienced backup is a goal.

Houston has stuck with Maldonado for four and a half years despite the fact that he’s perhaps been MLB’s least-productive hitter during that time. Over the past three seasons in particular, Maldonado has been a liability at the dish. In 1212 plate appearances since 2021, he’s turned in a .183/.260/.333 — about 34% worse than league average by measure of wRC+. However, the Astros are enamored of Maldonado’s game-calling, game-planning and broad defensive skills. Maldonado ranks among the game’s best at blocking pitches in the dirt over the past four years, although his framing skills fell off a cliff in 2023 and his caught-stealing rate has steadily declined.

Houston clearly loves Maldonado’s work with their pitching staff, however, and the organization would surely welcome him working in a mentor role to Diaz, whom they hope can cement himself as the catcher of the future. Add in that a new deal with Maldonado in a reduced role would undoubtedly be a low-cost arrangement, and it wouldn’t at all be surprising to see them hammer something out. Maldonado earned $5MM in 2022 and $4.5MM last year.

Maldonado isn’t the only former Astro who’s on the radar. Via Rome, Brown acknowledged that he’s also spoken with Neris’ representatives at Octagon about a new deal, though there’s no indication a new deal is close to fruition. Neris turned down an $8.5MM player option and although he’s 34 years old will quite likely be able to secure a multi-year pact on the open market this winter after turning in a sub-2.00 ERA in his second season with Houston.

Turning to a pair of Astros icons, both Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman are entering the final year of their contracts. Brown has been forthcoming about his desire to make the pair lifelong Astros, but agent Scott Boras — who represents both players — said at this week’s meetings that contract talks have not yet begun (link via Kawahara).

Astros fans will want to check out the pieces from both Kawahara and Rome in full, as they’re rife with refreshingly straightforward answers from Brown — the type of candor that many of his peers throughout the league generally shy away from offering. Beyond acknowledging priorities in the bullpen and behind the plate as well as interest in bolstering the rotation, Brown suggested that outfield won’t be a primary focus this offseason, given the presence of Kyle Tucker, Chas McCormick, Yordan Alvarez, Mauricio Dubon and Jake Meyers. That doesn’t expressly rule out an addition — unexpected opportunities on the trade market, for instance, could always arise — but it doesn’t seem that’s a hot-button issue for the Astros at the moment.

Bryan Abreu Suspended Following Benches-Clearing Incident

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6:16PM: Abreu has officially appealed his suspension, and will thus be available to pitch in Game 6 tonight, as per The Athletic’s Chandler Rome and other reporters.  The appeal hearing will take place tomorrow in advance of a possible Game 7.

TODAY, 11:42am: Per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, Abreu has not yet officially appealed his two-game suspension. If appealed, the suspension would begin immediately following a settlement with the players’ union or the decision being upheld during a hearing. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale had previously reported that Abreu had officially appealed his suspension, and that a hearing would be scheduled for tomorrow prior to a hypothetical Game 7.

Oct 21, 5:31pm: As noted by Alden Gonzalez of ESPN, the current CBA stipulates that all appeals of postseason suspensions must be settled within 48 hours. That clause would appear to indicate that Abreu will be forced to serve the suspension during the postseason unless the suspension is overturned on appeal.

Oct 21, 5:00pm: Major League Baseball announced this evening that Astros right-hander Bryan Abreu has been suspended for two games and fined an undisclosed amount for his role in last night’s benches-clearing skirmish between the Astros and the Rangers last night. Astros right-hander Lance McCullers Jr. and manager Dusty Baker were both fined for their roles in the incident, as was Rangers outfielder Adolis Garcia and right-hander Matt Bush. Both McCullers and Bush will be prohibited from sitting on their club’s bench for the remainder of the ALCS.

Garcia, 30, walked out of the batter’s box slowly after hitting a go-ahead, three-run homer off of Houston ace Justin Verlander. When Garcia returned to the plate during the eighth inning, he was struck on the shoulder by a fastball from Abreu. Garcia dropped his bat and confronted Astros catcher Martin Maldonado about the hit-by-pitch, leading the benches to clear. Abreu, Garcia, and Baker were all ejected during the incident, and the Astros went on to the the game 5-4 after second baseman Jose Altuve hit a go-ahead, three-run homer of his own in the ninth inning.

As discussed by MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch, neither side was pleased with the handling of the situation following the game. Abreu and other Astros players believing a warning should have been issued rather than an ejection, while Rangers manager Bruce Bochy was displeased with the twelve-minute delay following the incident. Bochy believes the delay could have impacted Texas righty Jose Leclerc, who surrendered the aforementioned game-winning homer to Altuve following the incident.

If Abreu elects not to appeal, he would miss the remainder of the ALCS, and potentially the first game of the World Series if the Astros win Game 6 tomorrow night. Should Abreu appeal, the suspension would be put on hold until the appeal is resolved. It’s not yet clear if Abreu intends to appeal the commissioner’s office’s decision, though ESPN’s Jeff Passan indicates that Abreu is “expected” to appeal and that if he does so, any suspension would likely be postponed until the 2024 campaign.

Abreu has been a key reliever for the Astros all season, with a 1.75 ERA and a 34.8% strikeout rate in 72 innings of work this year. That dominance has carried over to the postseason, where Abreu has 6 1/3 innings of one-run ball across seven appearances, striking out eleven while walking just two.

Astros Acquire Joel Kuhnel

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The Reds have traded right-hander Joel Kuhnel to the Astros in exchange for cash considerations, per an announcement by both teams. The move comes days after Kuhnel was designated for assignment by Cincinnati. To make room for Kuhnel on the 40-man roster, the Astros have transferred right-hander Lance McCullers Jr. to the 60-day injured list. The club also announced that they have optioned Kuhnel to Triple-A.

The move marks the end of the Kuhnel’s tenure with the Reds, for whom he has played his entire professional career after the club selected him in the 11th round of the 2016 draft. Kuhnel pitched for Cincinnati in parts of four seasons, with the majority of his appearances coming during the 2022 campaign.

In 58 innings of work last season, Kuhnel posted an abysmal 6.36 ERA. That being said, those terrible run prevention numbers are belie what advanced metrics say was a perfectly solid performance in 2022. Hitters posted an unsustainable .343 BABIP against Kuhnel in 2022 while the right-hander posted an unusually low strand rate of just 60.2% over the course of the season. Kuhnel’s performance is further bolstered by his 22% strikeout rate and 5.5% walk rate. Taken together, it’s easy to see why advanced metrics thought relatively highly of Kuhnel in 2022, as evidenced by a 3.78 xERA and a 3.52 xFIP.

In all, Kuhnel heads to Houston with a career 6.20 ERA and 4.28 FIP in 74 innings of work across 69 appearances. Going forward, Kuhnel figures to act as depth for an Astros bullpen that ranks top three in the majors with a 3.21 ERA, behind only the Guardians and Yankees. He joins the likes of Matt Gage and Blake Taylor as bullpen depth at the Triple-A level that’s already on the 40-man roster. Kuhnel takes the 40-man roster spot of McCullers, whose placement on the 60-day IL comes as little surprise following his season-ending surgery earlier this week.

AL West Notes: A’s, McCullers, Leon

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While the Athletics seem more likely than ever to relocate to Las Vegas after Nevada’s governor signed a bill providing $380MM in public funding for an MLB stadium in the state’s biggest city, Mick Akers of the Las Vegas Review-Journal reports that the club will remain in Oakland through the end of their lease at the Coliseum, which expires after the 2024 season. As Akers notes, no discussions have taken place regarding the A’s leaving Oakland ahead of the 2024 campaign, as the 2024 MLB schedule is already set and poised to be released later this summer.

Looking ahead to 2025 and beyond, however, Akers notes that there are a variety of options being explored for the club’s temporary home until the Athletic’s planned ballpark in Las Vegas is ready, which isn’t expected to happen until 2028. Options Akers mentions for the A’s are Sacramento, Reno, and even alternative sites in the Bay Area. Most interestingly, Akers points out that the A’s have an agreement in place with Howard Hughes Corp, the owner of the club’s Triple-A affiliate in Las Vegas, to use the Aviators’ 10,000 seat ballpark while construction of the permanent ballpark is underway.

Of course, there’s still much to do before the club’s planned relocation is official, to say nothing of the steps necessary to finalize a temporary home ballpark. The Athletics will need to have their relocation effort approved by 75% of MLB owners, and the MLB Players Association would have to give its approval for the club’s temporary home ballpark before any plans could be finalized. Still, Akers’s report nonetheless provides some a window into the options at the club’s disposal as they prepare to depart Oakland, their home for more than half a century.

More from around AL West…

  • Astros right-hander Lance McCullers Jr. underwent flexor tendon surgery earlier this week that will keep him out of action for the rest of the season. While that’s surely a bitterly disappointing development for both McCullers and fans in Houston, the situation could have gone far worse, as The Athletic’s Chandler Rome notes in a recent article that McCullers and Dr. Neal ElAttrache entered operating room prepared for the possibility that the right-hander would require a second Tommy John surgery rather than the flexor tendon surgery he ultimately needed. Such a procedure would have left McCullers unavailable for at least twelve months, but the 29-year-old righty could begin throwing again toward the end of the 2023 campaign or shortly after the season’s conclusion. Unfortunately, that does little to assist an Astros rotation that has also lost Luis Garcia and Jose Urquidy to injury so far this season.
  • The Rangers announced earlier this afternoon that catcher Sandy Leon had accepted an outright assignment to Triple-A Round Rock. Leon had been designated for assignment by the club earlier this week. It’s great news for the Rangers, as Leon is a well respected defensive catcher and game caller. While he slashed just .146/.186/.195 in 21 games with the Rangers this season that translates to an abysmal wRC+ of 2, Leon’s presence at Triple-A will provide the Rangers with catching depth behind their current trio of Jonah Heim, Sam Huff, and Mitch Garver while also providing the club’s young pitchers at the level with a veteran catcher who could aid in their development.

Lance McCullers Jr. Undergoes Season-Ending Flexor Tendon Surgery

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4:16PM: Brown spoke with reporters (including Danielle Lerner) today about McCullers’ injury, and didn’t give any more specifics on when in 2024 McCullers could return.  The right-hander will begin throwing in November.

2:53PM: The Astros announced that Lance McCullers Jr. underwent forearm surgery on Tuesday, which will end the right-hander’s 2023 season.  The procedure removed a bone spur and, more significantly, repaired McCullers’ damaged right flexor tendon.

McCullers has been rehabbing a muscle strain suffered early in Spring Training.  Houston GM Dana Brown said last month that the team was looking at the All-Star break as a very rough estimate for when McCullers would be fully ready to return, but in the interim, McCullers suffered a pair of setbacks — he went from mound work to throwing off of flat ground, and was then shut down altogether due to continued soreness in his right arm.  A subsequent MRI presumably revealed the flexor tendon damage, and thus McCullers will now close the books on his 2023 campaign without a single pitch thrown.

As Brown explained in a team press release, “each time [McCullers] built himself up to an increased pitch total off the mound, the pain would come back.  It’s unfortunate, but we look forward to him being back on the mound next season.”  Perhaps noteworthy is the fact that Brown and the release’s initial paragraph didn’t specify when McCullers could be back in 2024, which would seemingly hint that the righty won’t be ready for the start of Spring Training.

This will mark the second lost season for McCullers in the last five years, as he also missed all of the 2019 campaign due to Tommy John surgery.  A flexor tendon strain suffered during the 2021 playoffs also limited McCullers to 47 2/3 innings last season, though he did return in time to make some starts down the stretch and throughout the postseason during the Astros’ World Series championship run.  The press release noted that the Spring Training injury represented a re-aggravation of that same 2021 injury, so hopefully the surgery will finally correct the issue that has plagued McCullers for the better part of two years.

Between McCullers’ procedure and Luis Garcia’s Tommy John surgery, the Astros have lost two members of their projected starting five to season-ending injuries.  Jose Urquidy has also been on the 15-day IL since the start of May due to shoulder inflammation, and while an MRI came back clean, Urquidy isn’t expected back until perhaps the All-Star break.  (On the plus side, Urquidy did tell Danielle Lerner of the Houston Chronicle that he is hoping to throw a bullpen session in about a week’s time.)  If these injuries weren’t enough, former top prospect Forrest Whitley might also miss the rest of the season due to a lat strain.

Somewhat remarkably, Houston’s makeshift group of starters has still been one of the better rotations in baseball, in the latest testament to the organization’s minor league depth.  Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier have led the way as more experienced arms, but rookies Hunter Brown and J.P. France and swingman Brandon Bielak have all pitched well.  The latest edition of the MLBTR Podcast addressed what the Astros might do at the deadline in regards to adding starting pitching, including whether or not they might prioritize hitting over pitching in the wake of Yordan Alvarez’s oblique strain.

Between McCullers’ abbreviated 2022 season and now his lost 2023 season, it has been an unwelcome start to the five-year, $85MM extension the right-hander inked in March 2021.  McCullers is still owed $51MM between 2024-26, and if he is able to put his flexor problems behind him, there is plenty of time to better make good on the Astros’ investment.  Of course, it is also yet to be seen exactly how much of the 2024 season McCullers could miss, or whether or not he’ll be able to fully stay healthy given all the accumulated wear and tear on his arm in recent years.

Lance McCullers Jr. Headed For MRI After Experiencing Setback

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Astros starter Lance McCullers Jr. had a setback in his rehab from a forearm strain, general manager Dana Brown told reporters this evening (relayed by Chandler Rome of the Athletic and Matt Young of the Houston Chronicle). He’ll head for an MRI tomorrow and the team is expected to provide an update next week.

It’s an ominous development for a pitcher who has had an unfortunate series of arm issues over the past few years. McCullers underwent Tommy John surgery in late 2018 and missed the entire subsequent season. He was healthy and effective for most of 2020 and ’21 but suffered a flexor strain in his forearm during the latter postseason. That kept him out until the following August, limiting him to 11 combined starts between the regular season and the club’s World Series run.

McCullers’ latest issue arose over the offseason. He was diagnosed with a muscle strain in his forearm and shut down for a few months. His ramp-up process hit a snag in late May when continued soreness led the club to scale him back from bullpen sessions to flat-ground work. According to Brown, even those throwing sessions were causing McCullers discomfort, necessitating further imaging.

It’s too soon to know whether McCullers will need to go back under the knife. He and the organization are surely hopeful they’ll be able to avoid surgery. Yet it’s clear that McCullers’ return won’t be imminent. Brown acknowledged this development could play into their approach to the trade deadline.

“Even if (McCullers) could come back, we would have to build him up and it’s going to take a little while to do that, so we have to get our mind set and keep the thought process of strengthening the rotation,” the GM told the media (relayed by Young). “If there’s a deal that we can do, we’ll entertain it. But at the end of the day, our top three guys, make no mistake, are really good.”

Each of Cristian Javier, Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown has a sub-4.00 ERA with a strikeout rate north of 26%. Valdez and Javier are both allowing fewer than three earned runs per nine innings and have multi-year track records of top-of-the-rotation production. The rookie Hunter Brown isn’t quite as proven, though he’s a former top prospect who has hit the ground running with a 3.05 ERA, 28.1% strikeout rate and 54.9% grounder percentage over his first 88 2/3 MLB innings.

The Astros could feel comfortable running any member of that trio out for a postseason start. The rest of the staff has taken a number of hits over the past few months. Luis Garcia was lost for the season to Tommy John surgery. McCullers’ status is in question. José Urquidy is unlikely to be back before the All-Star Break due to a shoulder issue. Brandon Bielak and J.P France have stepped into the starting five and pitched fairly well themselves, though neither player misses many bats nor had much MLB starting experience before this season.

Houston enters play Thursday at 36-26. They’re in possession of a Wild Card spot but 4 1/2 back of the Rangers as they look to defend their AL West crown. Losing McCullers, Garcia and Urquidy certainly hasn’t helped their cause in trying to hold off a scorching Texas club, but the rotation has more than held up its end of the bargain. Astros’ starters rank third in the majors with a 3.23 ERA and fourth with 350 2/3 innings pitched.

The offense, on the other hand, has been uncharacteristically middling. Houston is tied for 13th in runs and ranks 20th in on-base percentage (.316) and 17th in slugging (.399). Dana Brown unsurprisingly acknowledged the front office was open to ways to addressing the offense on the trade market. Which positions the club targets could be determined by how things play out over the next seven weeks.

First base, catcher and whichever of left field or designated hitter hasn’t been manned by Yordan Alvarez have been their biggest problem areas. There’s at least some question about whether they’d upgrade at all three spots, though. The Astros love Martín Maldonado as a defensive presence behind the dish and have tolerated lackluster offense at the position for years. They just signed José Abreu to a three-year free agent deal last winter; benching him a few months into that contract would be a tough pill to swallow, though he’s now sitting on a ghastly .212/.273/.261 line. Michael Brantley could be an option for left field/DH at some point. He has yet to play this season as he recovers from last summer’s shoulder procedure, but Brown noted today that he’s hitting in batting practice and throwing in drills.

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