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Mike Clevinger

Arbitration Breakdown: Mike Clevinger

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Over the coming days, I am discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. So far, we’ve previewed Josh Bell, Cody Bellinger, Francisco Lindor and Jonathan Villar. For these pieces, I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. 2020 projections are available right here.

Indians right-hander Mike Clevinger only started 21 games in 2019, but when he was healthy, he was dominant. Despite being limited to 126 innings, the 29-year-old had a 13-4 record and 2.71 ERA with 169 strikeouts — all numbers that will factor strongly into his arbitration case. In his career, Clevinger already has a 41-21 record and a 3.20 ERA in 500 2/3 innings. My model projects him at $4.5MM the first time through arbitration, but finding comparables is tricky due to his missed time in his platform year.

Mike Clevinger | Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

To look for comparables, I focused on a rather narrow scope: first-time eligible pitchers in the past five years who pitched between 75 and 150 innings with a sub-4.00 ERA in their platform year and who had 35-plus career wins.

Gerrit Cole in 2017 and Kyle Hendricks in 2018 were the only two pitchers to match those specifications. The former got $3.75MM, and the latter got $4.18MM. Both of those pitchers only won seven games in their platform season, however. Cole did have 47 career wins, topping Clevinger’s 41, but his platform ERA of 3.88 is clearly worse than Clevinger’s 2.71. Hendricks is more comparable, with a robust 2.94 career ERA that is similar to Clevinger’s 3.20. Hendricks’ 38-22 record favorably compares to Clevinger’s 41-21 mark as well. Hendricks makes for a pretty good comp, and adding two years of inflation onto his first-time arbitration salary would probably put Clevinger right around the $4.5MM that the model projects for him.

Another potential comparable who had fewer career wins and a weaker platform season, but was otherwise fairly similar, is Jacob deGrom back in 2017. He went 7-8 with a 3.90 ERA in 148 innings in his platform year, but he had a 2.74 career ERA and a 30-22 record with 479 1/3 innings. DeGrom got $3.9MM his first time through arbitration. This is a likely floor for Clevinger—it seems clear that he should safely exceed $4MM.

What is tricky about first-time eligible pitchers is that for more than a decade, they have rarely broken the $4.5MM barrier. Three pitchers did as part of multi-year deals: Tim Lincecum in 2010, Clayton Kershaw in 2012, and Lance Lynn in 2015. However, Kershaw had a Cy Young Award on his resume, and Lincecum had two. Lynn was a unique multi-year deal that was extremely flat (three years, $22MM), so the $7MM attributed to the first year is not really a reliable number on which to base any Clevinger predictions. The only first-time eligible pitcher who signed a one-year deal worth more than $4.5MM was Dallas Keuchel, who landed a $7.25MM salary after earning a Cy Young Award.

All told, when you consider Clevinger being limited to 21 starts in 2019, he seems unlikely to be the one who breaks the $4.5MM barrier that has been so difficult for first-time pitchers to surpass. However, it also seems likely that he should hit Hendricks’ $4.18MM salary — and probably exceed it. Viewed through this lens, Clevinger appears likely to get close to his model-projected salary.

Angels Interested In Mike Clevinger

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The Angels and Indians have discussed a trade involving right-hander Mike Clevinger, MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi reports.  Talks between the two clubs have seemingly stalled, however, or at least “there has not been active dialogue in recent days,” as Morosi described the situation.  It’s possible to imagine that negotiations may have not have gotten far at all, given how Morosi reports that the Indians’ first ask was top Angels prospect Jo Adell as well as another player.

Adell is a consensus top-five prospect in baseball, ranked #2 in the sport by both Baseball Prospectus and Baseball America, #3 by Fangraphs, and #5 by MLB Pipeline.  This impressive set of ratings comes despite an abbreviated 2019 season for Adell, who was waylaid by ankle and hamstring injuries and limited to just 341 PA over 76 total games at three different minor league levels.  Only 27 of those games came with the Triple-A Salt Lake Bees, and since Adell had only a .676 OPS over 132 PA for the Bees, the Angels could opt to give him a bit more seasoning time at Triple-A before summoning him to the big leagues (and of course, the team would gain an extra year of control over Adell by keeping him in the minors for at least a few weeks).

Still, Adell is expected to make his MLB debut in 2020 and could be counted on as an everyday player by season’s end.  It has been widely speculated that the Halos will use 2019 breakout star Brian Goodwin in right field until Adell is ready for a promotion, and then Adell and Goodwin will, at worst, split duties for the remainder of the year.  Should Adell make an immediate impact (or even if Goodwin matches his strong production from last season), the Angels promise to boast one of the league’s stronger outfields, assuming Justin Upton returns to good health and Mike Trout continues his Cooperstown-level domination of the sport.

With so much expected of Adell so soon, it isn’t surprising that the Angels balked at moving him in any trade demand, even for a pitcher like Clevinger.  The 29-year-old righty has a 2.96 ERA, 3.13 K/BB rate, and 10.3 K/9 over 500 2/3 innings since the start of the 2017 season.  Clevinger is controlled through the 2022 season and is projected to earn $4.5MM in his first year of arbitration eligibility; his initial arb salary would surely have been much higher were it not for a teres major muscle injury that cost him around two months of action last year.

Between Clevinger’s cost-controlled price tag and strong results on the mound, Cleveland has seemingly no immediate reason to move him for anything less than a huge return.  The payroll-conscious Tribe has already moved Corey Kluber to the Rangers this offseason and might yet still trade Francisco Lindor, though those players are much more expensive and offer less years of control than Clevinger.  In fact, despite Kluber’s salary and injury-plagued 2019, it’s fair to wonder whether the Indians would have moved the former Cy Young Award winner had it not been for the team’s comfort level in Clevinger as the new ace of their staff, not to mention the development of young arms Shane Bieber, Zach Plesac, and Aaron Civale.

The Padres and Dodgers have also had interest in Clevinger this offseason, and it’s probably safe to guess that any club in need of pitching has at least checked in with the Tribe to see if a deal could be found for Clevinger or perhaps any member of the impressive Cleveland rotation.  The Angels have added Dylan Bundy and Julio Teheran to their starting five this offseason and will be getting Shohei Ohtani back from Tommy John surgery, though Anaheim still lags behind many contending teams in terms of both depth and frontline arms.  Clevinger was actually picked by the Angels in the fourth round of the 2011 draft, but was sent to Cleveland in an August 2014 trade for reliever Vinnie Pestano.

Mike Clevinger Drawing Trade Interest

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TODAY: The Dodgers continue to be “very aggressive in pursuit of” Clevinger and Lindor, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets.

DEC. 19: Indians righty Mike Clevinger is drawing trade interest, per Robert Murray (Twitter link), although the team is said to have put a “crazy high” asking price on the soon-to-be 29-year-old. The Padres and Dodgers are among the clubs to have at least inquired on Clevinger, although there are quite likely others, given the sizable demand for starting pitching, the dwindling supply in free agency and Cleveland’s recent trade of Corey Kluber.

Interest in Clevinger isn’t much of a surprise. He enters his age-29 season with three years of club control remaining and a sterling 2.96 ERA with 10.3 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9 and a 40.6 percent ground-ball rate over the past three seasons (477 2/3 innings in total). Clevinger missed about two months with a teres major strain last year but otherwise hasn’t had a notable injury since undergoing Tommy John surgery as a minor leaguer back in 2012.

The Indians’ front office is widely believed to be working with a slimmer budget this season than in recent years, as ownership has opted to scale back spending after reaching record payroll levels in 2017-18. That payroll preference was perhaps the primary reason that Kluber was moved — as opposed to holding onto him in hopes of receiving a better offer this summer — and it’s part of the reason that the club will at least listen to proposals on players like Clevinger and superstar shortstop Francisco Lindor. But president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti and GM Mike Chernoff have repeatedly stated that they expect Lindor to be their Opening Day shortstop; Antonetti reiterated as much in an appearance on MLB Network this week (video link). And while there’s been no declaration on Clevinger’s status, he’s likely viewed as a similarly vital piece of the team’s core.

Clevinger is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $4.5MM in his first trip through the arbitration process this winter, so he’s nowhere near as pricey as Kluber ($17.5MM) or Lindor ($16.7MM projected salary). And, because he’s controlled for three more years and his salary isn’t yet prohibitive (relative to Paul Dolan’s apparent spending preferences), one can imagine that it would indeed take a staggering offer to pry Clevinger from the organization’s grasp.

Elite prospects like Gavin Lux and Dustin May have been frequently mentioned in trade rumblings surrounding the Dodgers and Lindor, and it stands to reason that the Indians would have a similarly high ask to consider parting ways with Clevinger. While he may not match Lindor in pure 2020 value, he’s about 25 percent as expensive and can be controlled a year longer than Lindor. Essentially, fans hoping to see their club secure a talent the caliber of Clevinger or Lindor should make a list of the young, controllable players with whom they’d be most reluctant to part … and then expect that at least one and more likely two of said group would be at center of such a deal (in addition to some lesser prospects).

Indians Place Mike Clevinger On 10-Day IL

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FRIDAY: The Indians have placed Clevinger on the IL (retroactive to June 18) and recalled lefty Josh Smith from Triple-A Columbus, Mandy Bell of MLB.com tweets.

THURSDAY: After spending over two months on the injury list, Indians right-hander Mike Clevinger is likely going to be sidelined again due to a sprained left ankle, Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports.  Clevinger suffered the injury on Monday, while fielding a grounder in the second inning of the Tribe’s 7-2 loss to the Rangers.  He stayed in to finish the outing, ultimately lasting 4 2/3 innings and allowing five earned runs.

An IL placement could be somewhat precautionary in nature, as Hoynes thinks Clevinger could ultimately just miss one start if the Tribe backdates the move to June 18th.  As Clevinger only just returned from a teres major muscle strain, the team doesn’t want him to try and tough it out with an injury to his plant foot, which Hoynes notes could alter his delivery and lead to more serious injury problems.  Clevinger had been slated to start on Saturday against Detroit.

While this latest injury seems pretty minor, it still represents an unwelcome setback for a Cleveland team that needs all the help it can get as the Tribe try to remain in the wild card race (and within shouting distance of the Twins in the AL Central).  Clevinger has emerged as one of the Indians’ better pitchers over the last two seasons, and looked great in his first two outings of 2019 before his first injury absence.

Indians Activate Mike Clevinger

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JUNE 17: The Indians will make room for Clevinger by moving Kluber to the 60-day IL and optioning lefty Josh Smith, Bell tweets.

JUNE 12: The Indians will activate starter Mike Clevinger to take the ball on Monday, MLB.com’s Mandy Bell was among those to cover on Twitter. Clevinger recently made a second rehab appearance as part of his recovery from an upper back/teres major strain.

While the club ended up going without the excellent righty for just over two months, that’s actually a relief. When it was determined that his injury was worse than originally believed, it seemed that he might need that much time just for rest and rehab.

Clevinger, 28, will make for a significant boost to a club that has dealt with a trio of blows to its exceptional starting staff. Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco remain sidelined, but the Cleveland organization can now slot in another co-ace alongside Trevor Bauer at the front of the rotation.

The Indians will hope that Clevinger can pick up where he left off. In his first dozen frames of the year, he allowed just a pair of hits while racking up a 22:4 K/BB ratio. It’ll take a big effort from Clevinger and the rest of the roster to track down the division-leading Twins, but that’s not out of the realm of possibility and the Indians remain in the thick of the Wild Card hunt.

Indians Place Jefry Rodriguez On IL; Mike Clevinger Progressing

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The Indians placed right-hander Jefry Rodriguez on the 10-day injured list Tuesday, Ryan Lewis of Ohio.com relays. Rodriguez is dealing with a “mild” shoulder strain, according to manager Terry Francona, though he’ll still miss “at least a few weeks,” per Lewis. The team activated outfielder Tyler Naquin from the IL to take Rodriguez’s roster spot.

The 25-year-old Rodriguez arrived in Cleveland last offseason as part of its return from Washington for catcher Yan Gomes. But Rodriguez wasn’t supposed to see this much action with the Tribe right away. Before landing on the IL, he totaled eight starts and 43 2/3 innings of 4.74 ERA/4.47 FIP pitching with 6.6 K/9 and 3.92 BB/9. The Indians have had to rely on Rodriguez because of injuries to two of their best hurlers, Corey Kluber and Mike Clevinger, who have only combined for seven starts and 47 2/3 frames this season.

It’s not yet clear who will take over for Rodriguez in the Indians’ rotation. It’s not going to be Clevinger, who has been down since April 8 because of back issues, but he’s not far from a return. Lewis reports Clevinger will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Columbus on Thursday. As things stand, the 28-year-old is way ahead of schedule, Lewis suggests.

Clevinger came out of the gates in awe-inspiring fashion during his first two starts this season, throwing 12 scoreless innings of two-hit ball and racking up 22 strikeouts against three walks. His comeback will be a welcome morsel of positive news for a .500 Cleveland club that’s sitting a distant 10 1/2 games behind first-place Minnesota in the AL Central. The Indians entered the season as back-to-back-to-back division champions, and their two most recent titles came with key contributions from Clevinger.

Indians Promote Zach Plesac

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May 28: Plesac has been called up for his Major League debut, the Indians announced. Lefty Josh Smith was optioned to Triple-A Columbus in his place.

May 25: The Indians will select right-hander Zach Plesac’s contract from Triple-A Columbus, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports. The 24-year-old will make his major league debut Tuesday with a start in Boston, according to Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com. Plesac is not on the Indians’ 40-man roster yet, but they do have an opening.

The nephew of former major league pitcher Dan Plesac, Zach Plesac has been with the Cleveland organization since it chose him in Round 12 of the 2016 draft. Plesac does not rank among the Indians’ top 30 prospects at either MLB.com or FanGraphs, with Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel of the latter outlet describing him as a changeup artist with questionable command. He also underwent Tommy John surgery during his draft year, though he’s not showing any ill effects from the procedure these days.

Prior to his major league promotion, Plesac began the season in dominant fashion at the minors’ two highest levels. Plesac stymied Double-A hitters before moving on to Triple-A, where he has recorded a sterling 2.25 ERA and 9.9 K/9 against 0.45 BB/9 over 20 innings and three starts. He offers a 94 to 96 mph fastball and an offspeed mix that includes a curveball, changeup and slider, per Hoynes.

Injuries in the Indians’ rotation, where they’ve gone without Corey Kluber and Mike Clevinger for a large portion of 2019, helped pave the way for Plesac’s call-up. Both pitchers are progressing in their recoveries, though. Kluber, who has been out since May 1 with a fractured forearm, no longer requires a cast, manager Terry Francona announced (via Mandy Bell of MLB.com). The Indians will re-evaluate Kluber in two weeks. Meantime, Clevinger may only be a week to 10 days from starting a minor league rehab assignment, Ryan Lewis of Ohio.com tweets. Clevinger went to the shelf April 9 with a back injury.

Quick Hits: Clevinger, Rays, Rangers, Kelley, Phillies, Quinn

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In a promising development for the injury-stricken Indians, right-hander Mike Clevinger is steadily progressing towards beginning a rehab assignment, writes Mandy Bell of MLB.com. Clevinger, who was able to make just two starts before landing on the injured list with a strained back, has thrown a couple of bullpen sessions, and will build up his workload in subsequent sessions before embarking on a minor league assignment, which should come in the near future. Expect Clevinger to conduct a few more bullpen sessions to increase his pitch count before returning to game action in the minor leagues. Certainly, the news should inspire some optimism among Cleveland faithful, for whom the presence of the intense Clevinger on the mound will be especially comforting, considering the team’s unfortunate struggles with injuries to Corey Kluber and Danny Salazar. As Bell notes, June 7 marks the earliest date that Clevinger could be activated.

Here are the latest tidbits from the baseball world…

  • The Rays will deploy minor-league infielder Jake Cronenworth as a two-way player moving forward, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Cronenworth was used as the “opener” yesterday for Triple-A Durham, reportedly flashing a fastball at 94-96 miles per hour. The 25-year-old, a 7th-round selection of the Rays in 2015, pitched at the University of Michigan. It bears mentioning that Cronenworth has been plenty successful with the bat in 2019, slashing a cool .367/.460/.511 in 37 Triple-A games this season. This, of course, marks latest experiment for the innovative Rays, who also feature high-profile two-way player Brendan McKay in their farm system.
  • Rangers reliever Shawn Kelley, who Thursday underwent a procedure to remove lumps from his throat, is back throwing live batting practice, tweets Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram, who further notes that Kelley could even be activated as early as Monday. Kelley last appeared from the Rangers on May 4, and was subsequently placed on the IL with an infection, though it was unclear just what Kelley was dealing with. Of course, the Rangers will breathe a sigh of relief as they hope to welcome back Kelley, who has been one of the club’s most productive relievers.
  • Phillies outfielder Roman Quinn, currently on the injured list recovering from a strained groin, will hit exclusively from the right side when he returns to action, notes Matt Gelb of The Athletic (subscription required). Quinn, a natural righty, began hitting from both sides at the beginning of his professional career per the Phillies’ request, but injuries have stunted his development as a switch-hitter. As a result, he has informed manager Gabe Kapler that he will bat only as a righty, where Quinn has enjoyed considerably stronger platoon splits, upon his return from the injured list.

Indians Notes: Kemp, Gonzalez, Clevinger

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Here’s the latest from Cleveland…

  • The Indians had “mild” interest in Matt Kemp before the Reds released the veteran outfielder earlier in May, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal writes (subscription required).  In fact, Rosenthal notes that Cleveland was the only team who expressed any interest at all in Kemp’s services.  Given the Tribe’s needs in both the outfield and in the run-scoring department whatsoever, it isn’t surprising that the club is checking in on any potential solutions.  Kemp didn’t hit much in his brief time with Cincinnati, however, and was on the injured list recovering from a broken rib at the time of his release.  It stands to reason that the Indians (or other teams) could explore signing Kemp once he’s healthy, since the 34-year-old is just a season removed from a 122 wRC+ and an All-Star appearance for the Dodgers in 2018.
  • Also from Rosenthal’s piece, he reports “the Indians made a run at left-hander Gio Gonzalez” during Gonzalez’s brief sojourn in free agency in April.  After Gonzalez opted out of his minor league deal with the Yankees, the Mets and Brewers were the only known suitors for the southpaw before he agreed to a contract with Milwaukee.  Since Gonzalez hit the market less than two weeks after Mike Clevinger was placed on the IL, it makes sense that the Tribe would be checking around for potential rotation help — not to mention how that pitching need became even more pronounced in the wake of Corey Kluber’s forearm fracture.  Gonzalez has pitched well over three starts for the Brewers, and he could end up being a real “what-if” for not only Cleveland, but every other team that gave Gonzalez so little attention on the open market both in April and over the offseason.
  • In the latest update on Clevinger, he threw off a mound for the first time since hitting the IL with a teres major muscle strain on April 9, tossing a 20-pitch bullpen session on Tuesday.  “It was just 20 fastballs, but everything feels healthy,” Clevinger told reporters, including Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer.  The righty will play catch on Wednesday and then toss another bullpen on Thursday, before he and the team decide on the next steps in his rehab process.  Clevinger is slightly ahead of his original six-to-eight week projection to begin throwing, though due to his 60-day IL placement, it will still be some time before he can return to the Tribe’s rotation.  Clevinger was off to a fantastic start before his injury, tossing 12 shutout innings over his first two outings of the season.

Indians Select Carlos Gonzalez’s Contract

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SUNDAY: The Indians have selected Gonzalez’s contract, per a team announcement. In corresponding moves, they optioned right-hander Jefry Rodriguez to the minors and transferred righty Mike Clevinger to the 60-day injured list.

SATURDAY, 11:37AM: Gonzalez is expected to join the roster before the Indians’ Sunday afternoon game against the Royals, as per Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer.

9:29AM: The Indians will select the contract of outfielder Carlos Gonzalez from Triple-A, according to reporter Jorge Urribarri (Twitter link).  As per the terms of Gonzalez’s minor league deal, he’ll now earn a guaranteed $2MM for making the Major League roster, plus another $1MM is available in incentive bonuses.  Cleveland’s 40-man roster is full, so at least one more move will need to be made to accommodate Gonzalez on the MLB roster.

With the promotion, Gonzalez won’t have to face a decision about an April 20 opt-out date in his minors contract, though it seemed pretty likely that he would be back in the big leagues relatively soon given the unsettled state of the Tribe’s outfield.  The man they call “CarGo” also did his best to force the issue by posting a 1.004 OPS over 29 Triple-A plate appearances.

Gonzalez signed with Cleveland in mid-March, ending what had been a pretty quiet trip through free agency for the 33-year-old, as least in terms of known rumors.  The veteran was forced to settle for a non-guaranteed pact in the wake of a season that saw him hit .276/.329/.467 with 16 homers in 504 plate appearances for the Rockies — respectable numbers on paper, if still below-average offensive production (96 wRC+, 98 OPS+) considering the Coors Field factor.

On a more positive note, Gonzalez was worth 1.7 fWAR after a sub replacement-level (-0.1 fWAR) season in 2017, and he also had his best year on the basepaths in years, as per a +3.6 grade in Fangraphs’ Base Running metric.  Gonzalez also had something of a rebound defensively, with a +6.9 UZR/150 over 1004 1/3 innings as a right fielder in 2018 and a +2 Outs Above Average rating via StatCast, though the Defensive Runs Saved (-8) metric was much more negative about his glovework.

Cleveland entered the season with one of the shakier outfield situations in baseball, especially among contending teams.  While Leonys Martin has been a bright spot in center field and Tyler Naquin has performed well as the regular right fielder, Jake Bauers, Jordan Luplow, and Greg Allen are all off to dreadful starts.  Gonzalez figures to take the bulk of right field time from Naquin, though it leaves something of an imperfect fit since Gonzalez, Naquin, and Bauers (the top corner outfield options) are all left-handed hitters.  This situation figures to lead to fewer at-bats for Hanley Ramirez in the DH role, as Ramirez may only see action whenever the Tribe faces left-handed pitching.

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