Reds Select Nick Lodolo, Designate Riley O’Brien For Assignment
The Reds formally announced top pitching prospect Nick Lodolo‘s widely expected promotion to the big leagues yesterday, and they’ve now officially added him to the Major League roster by selecting his contract from Triple-A Louisville. Right-hander Riley O’Brien was designated for assignment in a corresponding 40-man move, and Cincinnati optioned righty Daniel Duarte to Louisville to open a spot on the active 28-man roster.
The 27-year-old O’Brien will now be traded or placed on outright waivers within a week’s time. An eighth-round pick by the Rays back in 2017, O’Brien came to the Reds in a 2020 trade that sent southpaw Cody Reed to Tampa Bay. He made his big league debut in 2021 but pitched just 1 1/3 innings in his lone start before being sent back to Louisville, where he otherwise spent the entirety of his 2021 season.
In 112 2/3 innings with Louisville last season, O’Brien pitched to a 4.55 ERA with generally similar marks from fielding-independent pitching metrics. He fanned a solid 24.7% of his Triple-A opponents and induced grounders at a similarly sound 45% clip, but O’Brien walked 11.2% of his opponents and plunked 10 more. O’Brien also walked three of the nine big league hitters he faced last year and allowed a pair of homers, illustrating that he’ll need to refine his command if he’s to find success at the big league level.
That said, O’Brien only turned 27 a couple months ago and has a pair of minor league option years remaining (2022 included). He’s shown an ability to miss bats in the minors and, as Eric Longenhagen and Tess Taruskin wrote when ranking him 29th among Cincinnati prospects, he’s shown three pitches that have all, at times, looked like potential plus offerings: his fastball, curveball and changeup. A club with some 40-man flexibility and a need for pitching depth could certainly take him on as a project.
As covered in greater detail yesterday, Lodolo will join fellow top prospect Hunter Greene in a youthful and high-upside Cincinnati rotation. The No. 7 overall pick in the 2019 draft, Lodolo is widely considered to be among the sport’s 100 best prospects and will give Reds fans a pair of young hurlers on which to dream.
Lodolo, Greene, 2021 Rookie of the Year Jonathan India and promising young backstop Tyler Stephenson could well be integral parts of the Reds’ core moving forward, and the organization undoubtedly still has high hopes for former No. 2 overall draft pick Nick Senzel, whose career to date has been continually derailed by injuries. Cincinnati surely still hopes to contend in 2022, but in order to do so they’ll need big performances from several young players, as the club also subtracted a number of productive veterans over the winter while cutting payroll (e.g. Jesse Winker, Sonny Gray, Wade Miley).
Reds To Promote Nick Lodolo
Top Reds pitching prospect Nick Lodolo will make his Major League debut tomorrow, the team announced. Lodolo, the No. 7 overall pick in 2019, will start tomorrow’s game against the Guardians and join fellow top prospect Hunter Greene in the rotation. Greene impressed with seven punchouts and a barrage of triple-digit heaters in his own MLB debut this past weekend. Lodolo has not yet been selected to the 40-man roster, so Cincinnati will need to make a corresponding move before he is formally promoted to the big leagues.
It’s been expected since the season opened that Lodolo would take the mound this week and make his big league debut, but it’s nevertheless notable that Cincinnati has now made it official and set the stage for a forthcoming 40-man move to add the prized young lefty to the roster. Lodolo split the 2021 season between Double-A Chattanooga and Triple-A Louisville, pitching to a combined 2.31 ERA with an eye-popping 38.8% strikeout rate, just a 5.5% walk rate and a 54.3% ground-ball rate.
Impressive as those numbers were, Lodolo also missed time last year with blister troubles and, far more troublingly, with a shoulder strain that ended his season in August. He looked plenty sharp this spring, tossing 11 1/3 innings of 2.38 ERA ball with a 12-to-2 K/BB ratio, so it certainly looks as though he’s put the shoulder troubles behind him for now. Still, those injuries limited Lodolo to just 50 2/3 innings in 2021, and he of course didn’t pitch at all in 2020, when there was no minor league season.
The largest workload Lodolo has ever recorded is the combined 121 1/3 innings he pitched between his junior season at Texas Christian University and the Reds’ lower minor league levels in 2019, when he was drafted. It stands to reason that Cincinnati will be relatively careful when it comes to managing his innings.
Even if the Reds limit his innings on the season as a whole or on a start-by-start basis, there’s good reason to be excited about the lefty’s arrival on the scene. As one would expect for a pitcher with that lofty draft stock and those scintillating 2021 numbers, Lodolo is widely regarded as one of baseball’s most promising young pitchers. He ranked as a top-100 prospect at Baseball America (No. 32), MLB.com (No. 42), Baseball Prospectus (No. 42), FanGraphs (No. 52) and ESPN (No. 79).
There’s a fairly wide split as to just how highly Lodolo ought to be regarded, though most scouting reports on him will characterize him as a likely mid-rotation arm. Still, FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen and Tess Taruskin wrote that Lodolo was one of the “more divisive” players discussed with evaluators when writing their top prospect rankings, noting that while analytics-driven evaluations love his changeup, scouts question it and wonder why he threw it so little (9%) if it’s truly one of his best offerings.
FanGraphs touts Lodolo for having three plus pitches, whereas Baseball America opines that the slider is Lodolo’s only plus offering. The Athletic’s Keith Law omitted Lodolo from his Top 100 altogether, but ranked him fifth in the Cincinnati system while opining on the lack of a third plus pitch and likening Lodolo’s slider and arm slot to that of Andrew Miller.
Split camps are nothing new when it comes to prospect evaluation, and there’s certainly still consensus that Lodolo is a big league talent who’ll play a role with the Reds for years to come. Data-driven models and traditional scouting may not agree on the lefty’s ceiling, but Lodolo will have the opportunity to start proving skeptics wrong beginning tomorrow. He’ll bring a mid-90s heater, a quality sweeping slider and that divisive changeup with him to Great American Ball Park, and there’s a clear long-term opportunity in the rotation now that Cincinnati has traded Sonny Gray and dropped Wade Miley via waivers.
If Lodolo is in the big leagues for good, there’s still enough time on the calendar for him to log a full year of service time — regardless of his finish in end-of-year awards voting. He’d be eligible for arbitration after the 2024 season and would be controlled through the 2027 campaign via arbitration. Of course, future optional assignments could impact that timeline, but Lodolo’s fate is largely in his own hands now that he’s getting his first big league look at a time when the rotation has such ample opportunity.
Reds Release Shogo Akiyama; Expected To Select Drury, Garcia, Farmer
The Reds announced this afternoon they’ve released outfielder Shogo Akiyama. It had seemed likely Akiyama would be released when the club informed him over the weekend he wouldn’t break camp on the active roster, as his contract afforded him the right to refuse any minor league assignments.
The move closes the book on a disappointing tenure in Cincinnati. Akiyama signed a three-year, $21MM deal over the 2019-20 offseason. Making the jump from Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball to MLB during the 2020 season was no doubt difficult, as the typical challenges of the new environment were exacerbated by the shortened schedule and pandemic protocols. Nevertheless, the Reds certainly expected better than the .224/.320/.274 line Akiyama posted in 366 plate appearances over the past two years.
Due $8MM in 2022 under the terms of that contract, Akiyama is a lock to clear release waivers. Cincinnati will remain on the hook for that money, minus the league minimum salary if the 33-year-old catches on with another MLB team as a free agent. From the Reds perspective, the release was about reallocating Akiyama’s spot on the active and 40-man rosters.
The Reds don’t have to officially make a call on their Opening Day roster until Thursday, but C. Trent Rosecrans of the Athletic tweets the club is planning to select three non-roster invitees to the big league club. Infielder/outfielder Brandon Drury, catcher Aramís García and reliever Buck Farmer are all expected to break camp.
It would be the eighth consecutive season with some MLB time for Drury. The right-handed hitting utilityman had a couple decent seasons early in his career with the Diamondbacks but has only eclipsed 90 plate appearances once in the past four years. His last extended run in the majors — 120 games with the 2019 Blue Jays — resulted in only a .218/.262/.380 slash, but Drury was alright in a bench capacity with the Mets last year.
García is expected to join the big league club as the backup to Tyler Stephenson. The 29-year-old backstop has suited up with the Giants and A’s in recent years. Over parts of three big league seasons, he’s a .218/.256/.373 hitter. García owns a more impressive .268/.333/.448 line at Triple-A. He seemingly beat out fellow non-roster invitee Andrew Knapp for the backup catching job. Rosecrans tweets that Knapp has been granted his release after being informed he wouldn’t break camp.
Farmer, meanwhile, has pitched in parts of eight big league seasons. He’d spent his entire career with the Tigers but is now in line for his second MLB team. The right-hander posted a sub-4.00 ERA in both 2019-20, but he’s coming off a difficult 2021 campaign. In 35 1/3 innings, Farmer posted a 6.37 ERA with an elevated 12.3% walk rate. He’ll add some multi-inning relief depth for skipper David Bell, though, in hopes of rediscovering his 2019-20 form.
Akiyama’s release clears one spot on the 40-man roster, and the other two seem likely to come from injured list placements. Righty Justin Dunn is out “months” with a shoulder issue and figures to wind up on the 60-day injured list. Bell told reporters (including Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer) that infielder Max Schrock will be placed on the 60-day IL as well. The 27-year-old is dealing with a left calf strain.
That’ll set the stage for the Opening Day roster, but the Reds figure to require another 40-man roster spot by the middle of next week. As Jesse Borek of MLB.com writes, Cincinnati is expected to promote top pitching prospect Nick Lodolo to make his major league debut when the team first needs a fifth starter on April 13. The team has yet to make a formal announcement, but Lodolo isn’t expected to be assigned to a minor league affiliate. Assuming that plan comes to fruition, the Reds would have to formally select the southpaw onto the major league roster.
Central Notes: Pirates, Brault, Reds, Lodolo, Guardians, Francona
The Pirates designated left-hander Steven Brault for assignment before the lockout began, with Brault electing free agency shortly thereafter. The rebuilding club could feasibly re-sign Brault and fit him into their plans for 2022, but Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic doesn’t think that’s likely. He quotes general manager Ben Cherington as saying he’ll “keep the door open” to bringing the lefty back, but that “The health has gotten in the way the last couple of years.”
Brault missed about a month in 2019 with a shoulder strain but managed to stay healthy for the shortened 2020 campaign. Over those two seasons, he threw 156 innings with a 4.67 ERA, seeming like a decent rotation piece for a rebuilding club to have on hand. Unfortunately, 2021 wasn’t kind to the southpaw, as he spent much of the season on the IL and only made seven starts in the big leagues. He’s still only 29 years old, turning 30 in April, meaning another team could give him a chance to log some innings and show his health, even if it might not be the Pirates. He has between four and five years’ service time, which means a team that signs him and sees him round back into form could control him through 2023, as long as the service time rules remain unchanged in the next CBA.
More news from the Central divisions…
- Much like Brault, Reds prospect Nick Lodolo also had an injury-plagued season in 2021. The 23-year-old was only able to make 13 starts between Double-A and Triple-A this year due to a blister as well as a shoulder strain. However, he seems to be on track for a healthy start to 2022, according to Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer. He spoke to Reds farm director Shawn Pender, who says he reached out to Lodolo about two weeks ago “just to check in, say hello and how are you doing. He says, ‘Gosh, I feel great. I guess all that strength and conditioning helped me, and the time off. I feel really up to the task of coming back ready to go,’ so that’s all been positive.” That’s surely good news for Reds fans, as Lodolo could be an important contributor in 2022, if healthy. The 7th overall selection of the 2019 draft, Lodolo is one of the most highly-touted prospects in the game, being ranked as the 89th-best prospect in baseball by FanGraphs, coming in at #31 on MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 and 23rd on Baseball America’s list. The Reds’ rotation has a strong front three in Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray and Tyler Mahle, but all three have been frequently mentioned in trade rumors in recent months, as the Reds are apparently looking to reduce payroll. If those rumors prove true and any of that trio is moved, it would enhance the likelihood of Lodolo being able to make the jump to the big leagues in the coming season.
- Terry Francona stepped away from his managerial duties in Cleveland at the end of July to undergo a hip replacement and foot surgery, leaving DeMarlo Hale in charge for the latter parts of the 2021 campaign. Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com provides an update, saying that Francona “should be off crutches in the next few weeks.” In September, team president Chris Antonetti said “We continue to plan looking at ’22 with Tito as our manager. If at some point that changes, we’re going to have to reconsider and relook at things at that point. But we have no reason to think that will be the case.” Based on this most recent update, it appears everything is still on track for Francona to return to health and to the dugout in 2022.
Reds, Nick Lodolo Agree To Terms
The Reds have agreed to terms with first-rounder Nick Lodolo, per Jim Callis of MLB.com (Twitter link). He’ll receive the full $5,432,200 that accompanies his No. 7 overall slot.
Lodolo is a 6’6″, 202-pound lefty out of Texas Christian University who was a consensus Top 10 prospect headed into the 2019 draft. He posted dominant numbers this year, logging a 2.48 ERA with 11.5 K/9 against 1.5 BB/9 in a total of 15 starts and 98 innings. Fangraphs ranked him as the draft’s No. 7 prospect, while he ranked eighth at both Baseball America and MLB.com as well as 10th at ESPN.com.
Lodolo adds a polished, high-end pitching prospect to a Reds system at a time in which the organization has been looking to emerge from an ongoing rebuilding process. Baseball America called him a “high-probability Major Leaguer” that has above-average control and the potential for three plus pitches (fastball, slider, changeup), although each is considered to be more of an average offering at the moment. ESPN’s Keith Law gives him credit for “at least midrotation upside,” and Callis calls him the best pitching prospect in this year’s draft class.
If he’s a familiar name to baseball fans, it’s likely because Lodolo was drafted by the Pirates with the No. 41 overall pick back in 2016. Lodolo opted not to sign and instead pursued his college career. That type of risk doesn’t always pay off from a financial standpoint but certainly did in this case; the No. 41 overall pick back in 2016 came with a $1.576MM slot value.